Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

Done Deal

Glaus for Rolen is official. The formal announcment will be today.

A few opinions on the deal:

Rob Neyer: Glaus gets slight edges in hitting and durability, Rolen the big edge on defense. They cost roughly the same per season, but Glaus' shorter contract leaves the Cardinals with more flexibility down the line. I like this deal for the Cardinals
Transaction Oracle (Dan Szymborksi): Rolen's a bit better when completely healthy but also has the lower chance of being completely healthy. I think the risk/reward scenarios actually work out pretty well for both teams - the Blue Jays are against very tough competition and have some heavy groundballers, so they want the more fielding oriented guy with the biggest payoff, since they're not going to slip into the playoffs with 88 wins anytime soon and the Cardinals, against rather weak competition, would rather have the safer bet.
Baseball Prospectus (Will Carroll): The deal comes down to whether or not the medical staffs on both sides have not only properly assessed both their new player, but also their own abilities.
Buster Olney: Troy Glaus told J.P. Ricciardi he wanted to be traded months and months ago, after growing a serious distaste for playing on the artificial surface in Toronto. But Ricciardi committed to nothing, telling Glaus that he wasn't going to simply give him away; he had to get a good package in return. And that's exactly what Ricciardi feels the Jays got in Scott Rolen, who is better defensively than Glaus, and who always hit well before having shoulder surgery. The medical staff which examined Rolen told Ricciardi that Rolen's shoulder should be fine, and that he will hit again.

Posted by Pistol on Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 08:33 AM EST.

Done Deal | 127 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

brent - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 10:10 AM EST (#178867) #

Nice work, JP. I am glad to see you are going after it.

zeppelinkm - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 10:25 AM EST (#178869) #

Just wanted to throw out my fondest memory of Glaus:

I think the game was April 21st, during his first season as a Jay in 2006. I remember the night because it was my last day of exams and I had an evening exam that night from 7:00 - 10:00 (It was a Friday night, I was fairly bitter). I wanted to see the Jays game that day because it was Burnett versus Beckett in their first matchup since joining their new teams and I was dissapointed that I would miss a good chunk of the game writing my exam.

Anyways, it was a joke exam and I was home by 8:30 having only missed a little bit of the first 2 innings. Burnett was out before the 5th inning with arm issues and Beckett was simply cruising. Things were not looking good for the Jays.

Now, I can't recall the score exactly, but I can remember how the 8th inning went pretty good. The Jays were down by 4. It was either the half inning before or earlier in the game, the Jays had beaned the Sox 9th hitter. To start off the 8th, Beckett dings the Jays #9 hitter at the time, Aaron Hill (and the announcers state it's for hitting the Sox player yadda yadda). Well up comes SS hopeful for the future, Russ Adams, and doesn't he go and avenge his good buddy Aaron and yank a shot to right center field. The Jays are down by 2. Up next Frankie the Cat. In very untypical Frank fashion, he strikes out. (This is what my memory is saying, but there is no guarentee it was a strikeout). Up next, Vernon. Doesn't he go and send a shot out to deep right center as well. Now the Jays are down by 1.

At this point the announcers are commenting on how there must be a strong breeze blowing out to right center, as every homerun hit in the game to that point was to right center field (the 2 by the Jays that half inning and I think at least 2 or 3 by the Sox earlier in the game too) and are wondering if Glaus can lift one out that way.

Well, I guess it wasn't blowing that hard to right-center. Glaus goes and hits one to the 3rd deck, a big pulled shot to left field. I will never forget Campbell's call on the home run. It captured the boy-ish giddiness I think any Jays fan would have felt at that time perfectly.

"GLAUS.... GLAUS... AWESSSSSSSOME!"

And, very befitting, in the bottom of the 12th inning Glaus came around from first on a classic Overbay double to the gap to score the game winning run. And after his head first slide, he smacks his hand down on home plate for good measure.

In my opinion, the game of the season, and Glaus' finest moment as a Jay.

ANationalAcrobat - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 10:38 AM EST (#178870) #

I'm really happy about this one. I'd much rather have Scott Rolen signed to a 3/36M deal than Glaus to a one year deal at 12M plus a player option for 2009. We had no one to cover third base in 2009 if Glaus opted for Free Agency, and if he took the option then he would have necessarily been hurt all year in 2008 - leaving us with another question mark in 2009. If I recall correctly, the only real options at 3B after 2008 are Hank Blalock and Miguel Cabrera.

Rolen at 3/36 is in itself a nice contract since it isn't long and the money is manageable; it's below market value.

ayjackson - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 11:12 AM EST (#178873) #

Again, I'm not opposed to this trade, but it's hard to find the logic in it, without knowing what efforts were made on other fronts to solve the 3B question for 2009/2010. If the price was to high to bring in a Stewart, Headley, Fields, Wood or Laroche, then maybe this was the best solution. I can understand JP not wanting to wait until Glaus hit FA next fall to find a replacement. Though I think Hill could take his gold golve defence over to third at any point and provide average offense (at least) for the position.

ayjackson - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 11:16 AM EST (#178874) #

I have a lot of respect for Glaus and the way he handled his trade request. Imagine keeping it quiet for months and not hearing anything about it until after a deal is made. He always seemed very content and knew that his best chance of getting out was to keep his mouth closed outside of JP's office. It seems a rare but effective method to getting your way.

CaramonLS - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 11:37 AM EST (#178876) #

So now I'm curious at what LA offered for Glaus before the trade deadline, when he was in the midst of his blistering hot streak, while they were looking for a 3B. Was LaRoche part of the deal? Did JP drop the ball on this trade and not trade Glaus @ his highest point in value, when he wanted to get out?

You also have to wonder is that this corrisponds with the timeline of the "slump", that brutal slump that killed Glaus's respectable season. Wouldn't be the first time a player completely tanks it after he requests a trade.

Pistol - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 11:50 AM EST (#178877) #

no one to cover third base in 2009 if Glaus opted for Free Agency

That's fine if Rolen is healthy and productive, but that's no sure thing.

Rolen didn't hit much better than Russ Adams this year. If he does that next year we're going to see a bunch of the 75% of the people that liked this trade talk about how much of an albatross Rolen is and what a bad trade it was.

I've come around a little bit on the trade in that there's probably more upside potential with Rolen than Glaus, but it's really hard to tell either way given that they both have injury histories and we're not doctors.

China fan - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 11:58 AM EST (#178878) #

Let's not imagine that Glaus could have commanded a higher price on the trade market if only Ricciardi had been smarter. Actually, the truth is the complete opposite: Ricciardi did very well to get a solid asset in exchange for a limping veteran who was widely perceived (even by Bauxites) as having not much trading value. Glaus was within a year of free agency -- if he had chosen not to exercise his player option -- and it's often very difficult to get equal value for someone who is potentially so close to free agency. If you go back to Batter's Box threads of November and December, some of us were saying that Glaus would be difficult to trade. Some Bauxites compiled a list of all Jays with "trade value" -- a list of six or seven names -- and Glaus was not on the list. This was even before we realized that Glaus had privately gone to Ricciardi to demand a trade, and before we realized that Glaus was blaming the Toronto turf for his injury woes. The trade demand and the injuries could have further limited Ricciardi's ability to get equal value for Glaus on the trade market. Given all those factors, Ricciardi did very well to persuade the Cards to give up Rolen, especially since Rolen is under contract for three years and will probably solve a potentially gaping hole in the Jays lineup after 2008. Overall, I'm pretty pleased with the final outcome, especially when we learn that Glaus was demanding a trade.

Pistol - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 12:00 PM EST (#178879) #

So now I'm curious at what LA offered for Glaus before the trade deadline

Do we even know that they made any offer? Looking at this I don't see where the Dodgers were ever interested in Glaus. There was only speculation that they did because they wanted a 3B. Elliot wrote that they had no interest in July.

Glevin - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 12:03 PM EST (#178880) #

"no one to cover third base in 2009 if Glaus opted for Free Agency"

Worry about that when it comes. This is my fundemental problem with the Jays under J.P.s guidance. He is always "going for it" when it seems pretty clear that they Jays were not going to contend last year, will not really contend this year, and barring some miraculous developments, will not contend next year. Yet, instead of trying to build a core of good young players, J.P. has built a core of "if only" veterans. (If only Burnett can stay healthy, if only Wells can put together a year like he is "capable of", if only Ryan wonuldn't have been hurt, if only Rolen can make a come-back, etc...). So, they have Rolen locked up for an extra year. That's probably not going to be a good thing. He certainly wasn't worth close to $12 million last year and isn't likely to in 3 years. This doesn't make the Jays any closer to contending in any of the next three years, doesn't save them any money, doesn't make them better long-term or short term. it doesn't really make them worse, but it takes away even more flexiblity with the payroll, something they can ill afford.

China fan - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 12:15 PM EST (#178882) #

I really don't get the comment that Rolen "didn't hit much better than Russ Adams this year" -- unless you think it is fair to compare a major-league player to a minor-league player. Adams had similar numbers to Rolen when he was in the lineup at Syracuse, but presumably you agree that it is easier to hit well in the minors than it is to hit well at the major-league level. When Adams was on the Toronto roster this past season, he performed far worse than Rolen's numbers.
More interestingly, it could be argued that Rolen's performance in 2007 wasn't really much worse than Glaus's performance. Yes, it's true that Glaus had a higher OBP and SLG, but look at it this way: Glaus managed to produce 62 RBIs in 115 games, while Rolen produced 58 RBIs in 112 games. Yes, I know, RBIs are not the perfect metric, but it's a rough indicator of the basic reality of the season: both were injured and both managed to be somewhat productive when they were not injured. So, if you think Rolen was as bad as Russ Adams this season, wouldn't you have to argue that Glaus was almost as bad as Russ Adams this season too?

CaramonLS - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 12:23 PM EST (#178883) #

Hey, if it turns out the LA rumors are false, fine. But I'd be absolutely floored if there wasn't a significant market for Glaus before the trade deadline during his blazing hot streak.

bryanttelfer - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 12:26 PM EST (#178884) #

I'd say the biggest upside of this trade is going to be in '09 if Rolen's is at all healthy. The '09 crop of 3B FA's is immensely thin, and will command ridiculous money. Assuming Glaus left following this season (likely to almost certainly), the Jays would be looking at spending a Glaus level of money on a medium to significant downgrade, or being pushed to an even larger contract for hopefully around the same level of production.

Rolen's glove is badly needed with Eckstein in SS. Glaus was a much better fielder than he was given credit for, but part of that was because the PMoD's range allowed him to play narrow in the 3B hole, maximizing that cannon of an arm on groundballs and bunt attempts. With Eckstein, you need someone that can play further away from the line, and Glaus' range limits would really start to show. Rolen in many ways helps make up some of infield Eck's declining defense opens up. On days Halladay is pitching, Rolen-McDonald-Hill-Overbay makes flat out the single best defensive infield in baseball.

Rolen's bat can't replace Glaus, but if he can get back around the level of his career numbers, combined with his fielding, I'd say he's a better fit for the '08 Jays than Troy would be.

melondough - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 12:31 PM EST (#178885) #

Did I miss it or has the batting order not yet been discussed? If not, I am surprised.

According to his 2007 splits, Rolen hit 5th 263 times, 4th 94 times, and 6th 28 times (he also hit 2nd once and 3rd four times). Not that this matters - it's a new team and all now. But that being said where do you think Rolen fits best and what do you see the Jays batting order looking like versus lefties and righties?

Against righties, I would like to see this:

Eckstein,(Overbay/Stairs),Rios,Wells,Thomas,Rolen(kinda like a decent lefty),(Johnson/Stairs),Zaun,Hill

Against lefties, I would like to see this:

Eckstein,Hill,Rios,Wells,Thomas,Rolen,Overbay,Johnson,Fasano

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=3507

skippy23 - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 12:34 PM EST (#178886) #

To me, skill wise, this trade is a wash. So the question becomes, 'why make this deal?'

I wonder if JP feels that Rolen and Eckstein will be the "consummate professionals" in the club house that every team needs to win. I am not comparing skills when I ask, "Is this guy expected to be like Molitor when he came to Toronto to teach people about winning and professionalism?" Does Rolen, who everyone knows had a struggle with LaRussa, fit that bill?

Or was this a "thanks Troy - we'll do our best to move you somewhere that has grass so you can keep playing" move? I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Mike B - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 12:59 PM EST (#178888) #

I'll miss Glaus - even though I'm optimistic about this deal - as he's responsible for one of my fondest Jays memories in recent times.

I was at a game versus the Red Sox in 2006 with a friend who is a huge Boston fan. Glaus had just taken about 4 pitches in what was looking like a quality at bat when, completely out of the blue, I turned to my friend and said "you realize this next pitch is going over the fence, don't you?" Lo and behold, about a second later, Glaus drives the next offering to deep centre, comfortably reaching the stands. Now I realize that my "called shot" was a complete fluke but it was also pretty cool so, if for nothing other than this moment, I'll always have fond memories of Glaus' time in Toronto.

MatO - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 01:12 PM EST (#178889) #

If the stories concerning Glaus wanting out are true then the reasons behind the trade are very straightforward. One injury risk disgruntled player for another injury risk disgruntled player. JP mentioned numerous times in 2007 that teams were simply not interested in trading their young players during trade talks so that didn't seem to be an option. With the steroid issue I thought Glaus was pretty untradeable anyway.

Mike Green - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 01:15 PM EST (#178890) #

I have decided that I like this deal. Projecting Rolen is very, very difficult, but I think Marcel's .270/.340/.440 is reasonable and I think that it's the best 3 year projection for him. I would guess that there would be a lot of variability in his performance over the 3 year contract, depending on the state of his shoulder. With his defence, that line makes him a valuable player at third base. Glaus could very well be a fine hitter in his 30s, but much more likely as a first baseman/DH. The Jays are already clogged on the right side of the defensive spectrum, so Rolen is a better fit.

It is not normal to feel particularly optimistic in mid-January, but I can actually see a winning club here now. The position players I'll be watching early in the year are Adam Lind and Travis Snider. The club could use a big left-handed bat, and one of them might be ready by mid-year. To start the season, the club is going to have to win with pitching and defence primarily. This is not impossible.

HollywoodHartman - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 01:31 PM EST (#178892) #

"Against righties

Eckstein,(Overbay/Stairs),Rios,Wells,Thomas,Rolen(kinda like a decent lefty),(Johnson/Stairs),Zaun,Hill"

Batting Wells any higher than 6th against righties is a bad idea. He was downright terrible vs them last year. I'd move Thomas and Glaus both up one slot and place Vernon in the 6 spot. Otherwise I like the lineup.

HollywoodHartman - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 01:34 PM EST (#178893) #

Sorry for the double post. Just wanted to say there's a press conference for Rolen at 5:45.

Pistol - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 01:50 PM EST (#178894) #

I really don't get the comment that Rolen "didn't hit much better than Russ Adams this year"

Rolen hit .265/.331/.398 this season. That's the kind of line you would expect from Russ Adams if he played, or any below average middle infielder (Belliard, Iguchi, Loretta). I didn't mean to imply that Adams' specific batting line this year was the same (although his .233/.313/.383 line with the Jays isn't that far off).

My point was that if Rolen continues to hit the way he hit in 2007 (sub 750 OPS) no one's going to be excited that he's under contract for 2010 at $10+ million which seems to be the selling point of the deal for some.

Jdog - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 02:00 PM EST (#178895) #

Against righties I'd prefer the following

Eckstein, Rolen, Rios, Overbay, Thomas, Wells, Hill, Zaun, Johnson

Or if Stairs or Lind is in LF in place of Johnson have them bat after Wells and bat Hill 9th,

I'm open to who bats 2nd and at the back of the order but I think that has to be the best order of 3-6 against righties

SK in NJ - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 02:19 PM EST (#178896) #

Against RHP:
1. Eckstein, 2. Overbay, 3. Rios, 4. Thomas, 5. Rolen, 6. Wells, 7. Stairs, 8. Hill, 9. Zaun

Against LHP:
1. Eckstein, 2. Johnson, 3. Rios, 4. Thomas, 5. Wells, 6. Rolen, 7. Hill, 8. Overbay, 9. Zaun/Fasano/Thigpen

If Johnson plays against RHP, then I'd bat him 8th between Hill and Zaun.

Wildrose - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 02:20 PM EST (#178897) #

Here's the worst case scenario numbers for Rolen, if the shoulder doesn't come around and he continues to hit as he has in the past 3 years ( it's simply foolish to use a one year sample size). Using linear batting runs ( courtesy of Baseball Reference) , adjusting for age and league, Rolen projects as to hitting, 2-3 runs above what the average A.L. hitter accomplishes ( call it +102 batting runs if that's your language of choice). According to the sources I use, third basemen generally are average generic hitters compared to all positions ( I believe these are the numbers Tango/MGL use , Catcher-15.3/ first +12/ 3B +2.2) . Basically wonky shouldered Rolen has been an average, typical hitting third basemen over the course of the past 3 years since he had troubles with his wing.

Fortunately for his stellar defence, it's his non throwing shoulder ( the left) which has been damaged. Compared to his career norms his hitting has declined over the past 3 years, but his gold glove defence has not. According to the Fielding Bible during these tough times his glove has not deteriorated like his hitting, he's been + 16 runs better than the average third baseman defensively over 150 games/year.

Moving forward and using pessimistic assumptions lets call Rolen a -5 hitter/ and +10 defender, which then makes him a 0.5 WAAP player. Using Tango's salary scale, a 2.5 WARP player should be payed $ 11 million/year as a free agent, Rolen gets $ 12 million, hardly an albatross contract even under the worst case scenario ( and remember factor in 10% salary inflation in following years). I know its hard to accept in these inflationary times, but the average free agent regular is payed quite well for his services.

Using the same strict 3 year approach with Glaus ( and remember this really isn't fair to Rolen since he's been quite severely hurt during this time period and throwing out the rest of his career may not be the most accurate method) , Glaus is about a +15 hitter and a -5 to league average defender. To the credit of Glaus, all his minor ailments have not really curtailed his playing time or his output, which are close to his career norms. Glaus if he can stay on the field is a 3 WARP player, this would be worth 13.2 million on the open market. If Troy's agent is any good he would have made him a free agent in 2009 if this deal did not go down and Troy stayed healthy on the field. The question is, would you pay 14-15 million over 3- 4 years to keep his services in such a scenario?

Personally, I think Rolen will be at least a +15 hitter if even remotely healthy, given his consistent glove he's conservatively a 4.5-5 WARP player. His upside is what this deal is all about, even in a pessimistic scenario, largely due to his glove , he still has relative value.

Geoff - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 02:31 PM EST (#178898) #

I'd guess that was the May 30 game where he smacked two home runs and Vernon 3 to crush Josh Beckett.

I'll always remember the shock of turning up to the May 26 game and seeing Glaus listed as SS for the first time that season. The game was a homer-fest matchup of Lilly and Freddy Garcia, with the Jays 4 blasts beating Paul Konerko's two solo shots. Glaus sent his deep over the center field wall and made a couple good defensive plays for his debut, while Shea made an awesome diving snag on a Crede line drive.

To get the game rolling, Glaus stole second in the first inning, leaving one to ponder if this guy really could do everything for this team.

Then in 2007, he was clearly limited by injury. So for 2008, how much good will Glaus' season-ending foot surgery do for him?

My worry is that Rolen will need at least a year to get back to form, where he'll need plenty of rest and not daily training and exercise of his arm which would set him back by the end of the season. Then, the same could be said of Glaus. Who's to say how the recovery time of these players will pan out?

Chuck - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 02:38 PM EST (#178899) #

Here's the worst case scenario numbers for Rolen, if the shoulder doesn't come around and he continues to hit as he has in the past 3 years ( it's simply foolish to use a one year sample size).

I concur that using one season alone to forecast the next is foolish. But I'm wondering with Rolen whether it's wise to average the past 3 years, even granted that this harshly punishes him by including two poor seasons.

The Rolen of recent years has operated in a boolean manner. EIther he's been healthy and performing at a high level or he's not been healthy and has been performing at a subpar level. I don't know that we're going to see an "averaged out" Rolen. I'm thinking we're either going to see really good Rolen or really not-so-good Rolen.

Those who view this situation pessimistically, like myself, see the probability of the latter to be a fair deal higher than the probability of the former. Many in these parts see the probabilities the other way around.

Of course, none of us really know anything about Rolen's physical state so we're all just guessing here. I'm looking at two shoulder surgeries and a very poor 2007 as serious red flags. Others are looking at a HoF caliber career and one successful post-surgery season, 2006, serving as an indicator that a second such recovery is entirely plausible. I hope you lot in this second category are right. Lots of room on this squad for a 2006 Rolen.

Mylegacy - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 02:40 PM EST (#178900) #

Welcome Scott! So long Troy!

Moving on... as to batting lineup construction; With so many coming back from surgery (Johnson, Wells, Rolen, Overbay, Zaun, etc.) I think their performance this spring will be more important than spring performance usually is. Some will be roaring back others limping. Spring will tell. Looking at Wells or Rolens 2007 production is a waste of time. As they will show in spring, at least one of these guys will be well above their 07 production.

Even using last years stats we now have five bats that were/are OK vs righties Eckstein (314 vs RHP), Rolen (314 vs RHP), Rios (283 vs RHP), Hill (283 vs RHP), Stairs (288 vs RHP)...in addition, Overbay is returning from hand surgery and he will improve significantly on his 224 aginst RHP last year. It is also likely that Wells 226 batting average against righties last year and Thomas' 259 batting average will both improve.

Against lefties we still have 10 guys that batted over 289 against them in 07. We'll continue to mash lefties.

April, will you please hurry up and get here!

Matthew E - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 02:41 PM EST (#178901) #

I'm neutral on the deal. It could work out, or not work out; so too could keeping Glaus have done.

But one thing about it: it hasn't done anything to *reconfigure* the team or to change its needs. The Jays had a third baseman before, and have a third baseman now. Was there a perceived need to replace Glaus? Not by me there wasn't.

Geoff - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 02:42 PM EST (#178902) #

My point was that if Rolen continues to hit the way he hit in 2007 (sub 750 OPS) no one's going to be excited that he's under contract for 2010 at $10+ million which seems to be the selling point of the deal for some.

How do you know that in 2010, the common salary for a below average infielder won't escalate to $10+ million?

By then, the Ron Belliards and Mark Lorettas of the game might easily pull in $12M/year for .265/.331/.398 production. I can see it now: January 15, 2010 Boston Red Sox sign Alex Gonzalez to a two-year $25M contract to be their back-up middle infielder.

Wildrose - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 02:43 PM EST (#178903) #

Another consideration is Park Factor. The Sky Dome is very kind to right handed power hitters historically, the 3 year home run factor for Sky Dome verses Busch is 1.22/0.91. Meaning you have 29% more chance to hit a homer in Toronto ( I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I believe it's an even more pronounced effect for right handed hitters). Rolen who had 48 doubles in St. Louis in 2006, may get a power surge over the fences to some degree. Glaus who is a fly-ball/ pull type home run hitter may yearn for the old days of Toronto , a park which very much suited his talents.

Geoff - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 02:45 PM EST (#178904) #

I'd move Thomas and Glaus both up one slot and place Vernon in the 6 spot. Otherwise I like the lineup.

His name is Rolen now. Not to worry though, you still have all of Spring Training to get it down.

SheldonL - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 02:56 PM EST (#178906) #

versus righties(practically the everyday lineup):

Rios, Wells, Overbay, Thomas, Rolen, Stairs, Hill, Eckstein, Zaun

vs. lefties

Rios, Wells, Rolen, Thomas, Overbay, Hill, Johnson, Eckstein, Zaun

I think the only platoon should be Stairs and Johnson with each getting about equal time. Johnson rakes lefties and when primarily facing them for the first couple of months, it might do wonders for his confidence(see more on confidence below) and he might get back to the level he was at in '06. Stairs on the other hand killed righties last year and I know his season was more magical than real but I say we give him his fair shot to prove it was no fluke.

I'm more of the opinion that your best hitters should hit at the top of the order. That's why I have Rios and Wells going 1 and 2. The 3,4,5 guys will protect them(Rolen, Thomas, Overbay). As for anyone who says it will reduce RBI opportunities for Rios and Wells, I argue that Eckstein's career .351 OBP and Zaunie's .355 OBP(his OBP has been .367, .356, .366, .341 in his time here) will provide ample run production for Rios and Wells.

Postscript: I happen to think confidence has more to do with baseball than mere ability. I think Magglio Ordonez' season last year and Reed Johnson's the year before are proof of it. Johnson got off to a hot start by batting .375 in April; he hit .403 in June and finished hitting .365 by the all-star break. I think just the confidence his had coming in everyday and seeing his season average at .365 helped a hell of alot. He cooled off hitting around .272 in his final two months but his confidence(IMO) helped him finish with a .319 overall.

The same goes for Ordonez. He was a superb hitter prior to his major knee injury and had since been around .300 with significantly less power. He batted .345 the first two months and I think it was the confidence of see that as his season avg as on June 1st that helped propel him to a .367 avg by the all-star break. He stumbled quite significantly hitting just .278 (a dream for most hitters) in July but his season avg was still .347 and I think that helped keep his spirits high to finish the season hitting .363.

Does anyone believe this assessment? I guess the more appropriate question would be: Is Ordonez the .363 hitter he was last year or the career .305 hitter he was before last year? Is Johnson a .319 hitter or the career .281 hitter?

Chuck - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 03:02 PM EST (#178907) #

Glaus who is a fly-ball/ pull type home run hitter may yearn for the old days of Toronto , a park which very much suited his talents.

True enough, but he'll probably enjoy that NL Central pitching (though that alone likely won't make up the home ballpark difference).

The Cubs have three LHP, albeit good ones (Lilly, Hill, Marshall).
The Pirates have three LHP (Gorzellany, Maholm, Duke).
The Astros have at least one LHP (Rodriguez). Other than Oswalt, no killer RHP.
I don't know that the Reds have any LHP (Milton?). Two strong RHP in Harang and Arroyo.
The Brewers have at least one LHP (Capuano). One strong RHP in Sheets.

For what it's worth, Pujols faced LHP 29% of the time in 2007. For Glaus, it was 23%.

Chuck - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 03:07 PM EST (#178908) #

As for anyone who says it will reduce RBI opportunities for Rios and Wells, I argue that Eckstein's career .351 OBP and Zaunie's .355 OBP

Well, there's at least one AB per game where Eckstein and Zaun won't potentially be on base to be driven home :)

bryanttelfer - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 03:10 PM EST (#178909) #

But one thing about it: it hasn't done anything to *reconfigure* the team or to change its needs. The Jays had a third baseman before, and have a third baseman now. Was there a perceived need to replace Glaus? Not by me there wasn't.

I'd have to disagree. This has done a lot to reconfigure the team. You've measurably improved the infield defense, and provided enough of a range coverage to justify starting Eckstein the majority of your games without killing your pitchers. You've added a fair amount of speed to the lineup, while sacrificing some power.

SheldonL - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 03:17 PM EST (#178910) #

Chuck, would you rather have high OBP guys for Wells and Rios for 162 AB's or getting Wells and Rios each about 60 more AB's than they normally would get?

(I haven't framed my question well but I hope you understand my point)

ayjackson - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 03:19 PM EST (#178911) #

I've noticed that Rolen's three-year splits (covering his injury seasons) are quite pronounced:

vs. RHP:

.289/.356/.471

vs. LHP

.236/.325/.400

It looks like we acquired Eric Chavez after all.

Chuck - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 03:24 PM EST (#178913) #

Chuck, would you rather have high OBP guys for Wells and Rios for 162 AB's or getting Wells and Rios each about 60 more AB's than they normally would get?

My response was not a critique of your proposal, merely me pointing out the obvious: power hitters batting at the top of the order serve exclusively as table setters, rather than table clearers, in the 1st inning.

I'll leave it to others to debate the merits of batting the low-OBP/high-SLG likes of Soriano (or Rios or Wells) leadoff. Yes, it maximizes their ABs. But it does reduce their table-clearing potential. I don't pretend to know where the break-even on this strategy lies.

Chuck - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 03:49 PM EST (#178915) #

I've noticed that Rolen's three-year splits (covering his injury seasons) are quite pronounced:
vs. RHP: .289/.356/.471
vs. LHP: .236/.325/.400

His career splits are a more normal: 283/406/516, 284/361/504.

It will be interesting to observe whether his "reverse skew" of the past three seasons is just an anomoly or whether his wonky left shoulder somehow makes him vulnerable to left-hand pitching (maybe he can't open up properly on pitches up and in).

lexomatic - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 03:55 PM EST (#178916) #

I agree with ayjackson on this one. Glaus showed a lot of class keeping quiet. obviously he thinks a bit more than many professional atheletes. While i'm happy with this trade it's not like I don't appreciate Glaus or what he did here. I was also very excited when he arrived in town.

R Billie - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 04:01 PM EST (#178917) #

"Buster Olney: Troy Glaus told J.P. Ricciardi he wanted to be traded months and months ago, after growing a serious distaste for playing on the artificial surface in Toronto. But Ricciardi committed to nothing, telling Glaus that he wasn't going to simply give him away; he had to get a good package in return. And that's exactly what Ricciardi feels the Jays got in Scott Rolen, who is better defensively than Glaus, and who always hit well before having shoulder surgery. The medical staff which examined Rolen told Ricciardi that Rolen's shoulder should be fine, and that he will hit again."

While you'd certainly rather hear a good report from a medical staff than a bad one, I wonder how much stock can really be put into that. Given the complexity of shoulder diagnosis and treatment , I would think it would be hard to say how well it will stand up to swinging a bat full speed hundreds of times during the course of the year.

lexomatic - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 04:31 PM EST (#178919) #

Except that I still think people will be excited as long as his defense is great. remember Kelly Gruber, fan favourite? I could see that happening, hopefully without the steep injury decline. Your point never dealt wtih the fact that Adams could never dream of playing defense at 3b as well as Rolen does

sorry if this seems like gang up on Pistol day...totally just arguing

HollywoodHartman - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 04:35 PM EST (#178920) #

Rabble Rabble Pistol!!!!!

Anywho, Dayn Perry wrote a nice little article about the local nine. It ends with a realistic but bitter one liner, but overall he seems to be a big fan of the Jays. He even goes as far to claim that they would win any division in the NL (does that mean he thinks they would be #1 in the NL?).

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7677388

jgadfly - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 04:41 PM EST (#178921) #

In a Jordan Bastian "health on the corners" report from Jan 9th and in reference to the acquisition of Marco Scutaro ... "The key is we have to have somebody to fill in for Glaus over at third if he comes up lame," Gibbons said about Scutaro. "We don't know what's going to happen there. We think he's healthy, but who knows?" ... Even Scott Rolen playing with an injured shoulder should project more than Scutaro filling in for Glaus. Reading (and not necessarily) between the lines there was an obvious major concern with Glaus' health projections held by BJ management. Hopefully both players regain their health and both play to their potential. Both scenarios dictated a change of scenery.

jgadfly - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 05:07 PM EST (#178925) #

WOOOOIE Michael !!! "...The position players I'll be watching early in the year are Adam Lind and Travis Snider. The club could use a big left-handed bat, and one of them might be ready by mid-year. ...". Did Mylegacy generously send you a case of his bottled elixor for Christmas? Optimism is catchy but Snider's arrival mid-year is ... well ... ???... WOW! I hope you're right and we'll keep everything crossed and touching wood. The best and most enjoyable games of baseball are always played in Elyssium Fields in January in front of a warm fire with our feet up.

Wildrose - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 05:14 PM EST (#178927) #

Here's the Perry story.

Alex Obal - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 05:42 PM EST (#178930) #

Slight non sequitur:

If Adam Lind isn't on the Jays' 25-man on Opening Day, what will Marco Scutaro do to pass the time? Rubik's cube?

scottt - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 06:21 PM EST (#178932) #

I like the idea of Wells batting deeper in the lineup and using his speed more.

The lineup, incidentally, is looking pretty good. Who's going to be the worst hitter on the team? Assuming JMac doesn't play much and that Stairs and Johnson are platoon players, It could be one of Overbay, Rollen, Wells, Zaun or Hill. All of these guys could also have a great year.

Ron - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 06:23 PM EST (#178933) #

The press conference is on right now at mlb.com

Ron - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 06:43 PM EST (#178934) #

- Will wear number 33 for the Jays. His daughter picked this number.
- JP scouted Rolen in AA
- Rolen "plays the game the right way". JP said he and Eckstein are "dirtbags"
- Says he feels as strong as he has been in 3 years
- Jays proposed the trade around the Winter Meetings
- Glaus asked to be traded at the all star break
- No concerns over playing on turf

budgell - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 06:50 PM EST (#178935) #

The press conference is on right now at mlb.com

Funny guy! At least he'll have a better year than Glaus in front of the microphone if nowhere else.

ANationalAcrobat - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 06:53 PM EST (#178936) #

Has the effect of artificial turf on team health as a whole ever been studied? It seems to me that teams with a harder playing surface are penalising themselves dramatically, risking the health of their players and making themselves a unwanted destination for many free agents.

HollywoodHartman - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 07:02 PM EST (#178937) #

I can't seem to find the press conference on the Jays site. If anyone can post a link to it I would appreciate it very much.

SK in NJ - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 07:07 PM EST (#178938) #

At the very least he's an entertaining interview.

Look forward to seeing him play.

Wildrose - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 07:42 PM EST (#178939) #

Has the effect of artificial turf on team health as a whole ever been studied?

I'm glad you brought this up ,as I meant to comment on this issue. The Jays play on "field turf", which is quite a bit different than the old artificial turf which was essentially indoor/outdoor carpet laid over concrete. The new playing surface is said to be extremely spongy, mulched up tires as an underlay which provides a soft playing surface. Is this just excuse making out of the Glaus camp?

ayjackson - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 07:59 PM EST (#178941) #

While field turf IS granular tire rubber, it IS laid on concrete. If players say it's harder than natural grass, I've no reason to doubt them

Mike Green - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 08:15 PM EST (#178942) #

I have always loved choosing the best bat available, and Snider was obviously that in 2006. Off his performance in the AFL, I am convinced that there is the possibility that he can dominate double A the way Miguel Cabrera did at age 20, and earn a mid-season callup. It isn't really unbridled optimism. I think that the success of Ahrens, Jackson, Eiland and the rest of the 2007 high school class is highly speculative. None of them have anywhere near the bat that Snider does, and that was perfectly obvious from 3 minutes watching the scouting videos.

As far as I am concerned, there are four teams in the AL East with more than a negligible chance to win the division, and the Jays are one of them. It is easy now to construct the scenario that leads to victory, which I suppose is all that a fan can ask for.

Chuck - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 08:27 PM EST (#178944) #

It is easy now to construct the scenario that leads to victory, which I suppose is all that a fan can ask for.

Having David Ortiz squirelled away in the trunk of Daniel Stern and Dan Aykroyd's car would go a long way.

Rickster - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 08:39 PM EST (#178945) #

Off his performance in the AFL

Why start there? Don't be mislead by Snider's seemingly low 902 OPS in Lansing last year. He dominated the MWL last year, leading the league in SLG by 50 points and OPS by 42 points. All at the age of 19 - three years younger than the league average age!

He's going to be an absolute star in the majors. I'd love to see him up in the latter half of 2008, but it is more realistic to think that he ends up at AAA next year, with a shot at an ML audition in '09 (at age 21).

Axil - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 08:50 PM EST (#178946) #

It doesn't matter who ends up winning this trade. I think the benefit of having Rolen at third is that whoever the Jays have on the mound they will be a whole lot better with that defense behind them (7 possible gold glove winners).

Mike Green - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 08:57 PM EST (#178947) #

No, Chuck, no forcible confinement or rendition required. It's the White Sox '05 model for success. Excellent defence, good and healthy pitching, average offence and modest overperformance of the Pythagorean. The club is 7 deep in respectable starting options (I like Purcey as a 7th starting option a lot more than the choices at the start of 2007) and 7 deep in the pen. The value in the subtraction of Ohka, Zambrano and Clayton is considerable and perhaps not as obvious now as it might have been in April, 2007.

The Red Sox are a better and deeper team, and I am quite sure will end up with a significantly better record over the period 2008-11, but for one season, one does not know.

HollywoodHartman - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 09:09 PM EST (#178948) #

I hesitated when you said 7 potential gold glovers, but on further inspections it isn't that far off.

Let's go position by position to see if they are good. Let's say top 5 or so, because top overall in 7 positions is a bit ridiculous. For arguments sake I'll have Reed in LF and Mac at SS.

C: No. Zaun is pretty good at blocking pitches but has a bit of a noodle arm.
1b: Yes. Overbay has pretty good range and can pick it with the best.
2b: Yes. An argument can be made that he is the best period.
SS: Yes. Almost certainly top 2 behind Everett.
3b: Yes. Some say Rolen may be the best ever defensively, so he's still amazing even if he slips a bit.
LF: No. But Reed is at worst average. It really is amazing that he can be our second worst fielder.
CF: Yes. The GG's speak for themselves. I'm banking on his defensive stats picking up again with the healed shoulder.
RF: Yes. Has an absolute cannon and won a Fielding Bible GG I believe.

That my friends is simply phenominal.

Denoit - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 09:22 PM EST (#178950) #

I beleive this is the best all around Jays team assembled since 1993. Cant wait for the season to start, even if we dont make it into the playoffs its sure to be an exciting year.

HollywoodHartman - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 09:40 PM EST (#178952) #

The Rolen (almost wrote Glaus again) press conference is now up on bluejays.com or at

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/media/player/mp_tpl.jsp?w_id=610345&w=mms%3A//a1503.v108692.c10869.g.vm.akamaistream.net/7/1503/10869/v0001/mlb.download.akamai.com/10869/2008/open/teams08/tor/video/011508_rolen_pc_400.wmv&pid=gen_video&vid=7790&mid=200801152346965&cid=mlb&fid=gen_video400&v=2&mType=w&urlstr=&mUrl=&type=v_free&_mp=1 (Sorry I don't know how to do short links).

Rolen seems like a standup guy and I'm excited to see him play here for the next 3 years.

Wildrose - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 10:35 PM EST (#178953) #

If players say it's harder than natural grass, I've no reason to doubt them

The problem is that only one player is saying this Glaus, derogatory comments which were the norm in by gone years are hardly ever heard these days with field turf.

Johnson if healthy is a plus defender, basically one of the best defensive left fielders in the A.L.

Ryan Day - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 10:41 PM EST (#178954) #

I suspect if you're already predisposed to having creaky joints, you might notice a lot more than someone else.

Jdog - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 10:42 PM EST (#178955) #

Are you saying that you don't consider Reed Johnson one of the top 5 defensive LF's

Please name me 5 better LF's.

Ozzieball - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 11:00 PM EST (#178956) #

Outfield gold gloves are not divided by position. Left field is a void of defence, but there is no gold glove reserved for left fielders.

ANationalAcrobat - Wednesday, January 16 2008 @ 12:12 AM EST (#178957) #

Some interesting stuff in Blair's blog:

- Blair has been around clubhouses 20+ years and has seldom seen a guy in as much discomfort as Glaus still playing.

- Admires the fact that Glaus played SS for us, at the risk of looking like a "doofus."

- Glaus could treat a two minute interview like a root canal but would answer questions and was generally a stand-up guy. "There's nothing wrong with being a challenging interview."

- Blair did not like the way Glaus's agent dealt with the steroid stuff but likes that Glaus met with the commissioner voluntarily.

- Likes the deal since he feels a Rolen has more upside.

- When asked is Zaun and Thomas would clash over PEDs, responded that they did have a verbal clash last year over fraternizing in the weight room after game. Blair does not feel there will be any trouble since however "The Hurt functions in his own world and neither of them are at a stage of their careers where stuff like that should matter."

- Zaun was offered the chance to write an article on PEDs in the Globe; no response yet.

subculture - Wednesday, January 16 2008 @ 01:15 AM EST (#178958) #

The lineup looks much more natural now, with a little bit more speed, and without the gaping hole that JMac represented (though I really like him for defensive subs, and with Halladay pitching).

re: splits, now we have more options against RH pitching, and I hope Gibbons isn't afraid to bat Rolen 3rd, or 4th, and bump Wells way down (behind Overbay and Stairs).

Anyone researched how the Jays record would have been affected last year, if their OPS was say, 30 points higher against righties, and 30 points lower against lefties? Obviously no way to know exactly how this would have impacted games, but might be useful as an indicator.

And I AM optimistic, because if even 3 of Wells, Rolen, Johnson, Overbay, or BJ Ryan are healthy and productive this year, and if even 3 of McGowan, Marcum, Jannsen, Litsch, League, and Burnett remain healthy and productive, the Jays are in good shape (at least, poised to take advantage if Yanks or Sox stumble).

Mylegacy - Wednesday, January 16 2008 @ 01:30 AM EST (#178959) #

Rolen's press conference and JP's Fan590 interview have left me drooling.

Apparently Rolen BAD shoulder is now "normal" in fact his "left shouder is now stronger and has better range of motion than his right." His trainer knows the Jays trainer and after seeing the results our trainer, and the Doctors, think he is completely repaired. JP said they checked multiple sources.

We were happy getting a great defensive third baseman who could hit righties a lot better than Troy could - looks like we're getting all than + a lot more power than we thought and I couldn't be happier!

Chuck - Wednesday, January 16 2008 @ 07:26 AM EST (#178960) #

Sorry I don't know how to do short links

If your browser precludes you from embedding a URL, you can always visit www.tinyurl.com.

FranklyScarlet - Wednesday, January 16 2008 @ 08:37 AM EST (#178962) #

Rolen represents the infield leader we have missing in recent past.
He's tougher and more vocal (ie Mike Lowell) than Glaus.
He'll keep the line moving and he'll do the little things this club needs to do everyday.

I like it and possible news of adding a catcher would finalize our "doings" this offseason...

Jdog - Wednesday, January 16 2008 @ 10:07 AM EST (#178963) #

Thanks for pointing out the obvious Ozzie. I am sure every one here is aware outfield gold gloves are not slotted to each outfield position. The above poster was simply taking a look at each position, and I just was pointing out that Reed would be near the top in his position. If he was looking at top 5 for the outfield as a whole, I'm afraid Rios would not make that cut.

Barry Bonnell - Wednesday, January 16 2008 @ 10:36 AM EST (#178965) #

Zeppelinkm: "Just wanted to throw out my fondest memory of Glaus."

I was at that game and it was awesome beyond words. After Glaus' home run I tapped a Sox fan who was sitting behind me on the knee and pointed to the Toronto letters on my Jays jersey and made a #1 sign. His girlfriend was laughing but he was super pissed. After the game I was so euphoric I didn't even care that A.J had been taken out early with an injury. I also remember this game because after Beckett hit Hill he screamed out loud on the mound. In anger or frustration I don't know. Also, Glaus hit the HR of Timlin I'm pretty sure.

Jonathan - Wednesday, January 16 2008 @ 10:45 AM EST (#178966) #

Vs. Lefty Starters

1. Johnson (LF)
2. Rios (RF)
3. Wells (CF)
4. Thomas (DH)
5. Rolen (3b)
6. Overbay (1b)
7. Zaun (C)
8. Hill (2b)
9. McDonald (SS)

Vs. Righy Starters

1. Eckstein (SS)
2. Rios (RF)
3. Wells (CF)
4. Thomas (DH)
5. Rolen (3b)
6. Stairs (LF)
7. Overbay (1b)
8. Zaun (C0
9. Hill (2b)

Taking into account splits on some of the players above and managing the lineup accordingly, I like the lineup quite a bit. I feel that with Rolen alongside on defence, we can afford the drop on defence from Eckstein. Managing an Eckstein/McD platoon through their splits would actually make for a very effective tandem. So long as Rolen and Wells are healthy, I think we actually stand to have a strong offence this year, along with superior defence and strong pitching. We're at least on par with the Yankees for the year ahead.

SheldonL - Wednesday, January 16 2008 @ 11:48 AM EST (#178968) #

No worries, Jays fans...we're definitely on par with the Yanks if not higher.
Look at their rotation...there isn't a starter there that is a true number 1. Hell, Wang and Pettitte are both number 2 guys with Pettitte among the lower echelon of number 2 starters in the majors(his WHIP is ridiculously high). Then they've got Mussina who struggled through injuries and will bounce back but he's not the ace that surfaced out of nowhere in '06. He's an above average number 3 guy certainly. Then they've got the final two spots being auditioned for by Ian kennedy, Hughes and Chamberlain. Um, two fresh rookies pitching in the monstrous AL...doesn't sound like a rosy season.
However, they've got that amazing offence! But how amazing is that offence? Posada is not the .338 hitter he showed last year: a significant regress down to his career line of .281 is expected...but he's still got enough pop to be among the better hitting-catchers. Their infield with the exception of first base boasts 3 amazing hitters - granted. But they've got nothing to offer at first base really. Then in the outfield, Cabrera's overrated(although he's young enough to improve in a hurry...but let's cross that bridge when we have to); Abreu is a phenomenal hitter but when you think of the yankee outfielders of the past, he's the lesser of potential evils(I mean they have usually had guys like Sheffield who were power threats). Sure, they've got Matsui and a DH combo of Damon and Giambi.

I think we've got superior pitching- hands down. And I truly believe that our offence is on par with theirs. Let's not dwell on last year. We know Wells, Overbay, Johnson and Rolen are better than their '07 versions. Wells>Matsui, Rios>Abreu, Thomas>Giambi/Damon....the only thing that gives them the edge is A-Rod, Jeter, Cano, Posada are better than Rolen, Hill, Overbay, Zaun. I think Ecks = Cabrera, and Stairs/Johnson>their 1st base platoon.

Now, if we can only convince Boston to not put Papelbon in the rotation!

Impossibles - Wednesday, January 16 2008 @ 12:04 PM EST (#178969) #

"Taking into account splits on some of the players above and managing the lineup accordingly, I like the lineup quite a bit. I feel that with Rolen alongside on defence, we can afford the drop on defence from Eckstein. Managing an Eckstein/McD platoon through their splits would actually make for a very effective tandem. So long as Rolen and Wells are healthy, I think we actually stand to have a strong offence this year, along with superior defence and strong pitching. We're at least on par with the Yankees for the year ahead."

While Johhny-Mac had impressive numbers against lefties last year (818 OPS), it was a small sample size (80 ABs) and I think he's more likely to be closer to his career lefty splits (645 OPS) than his 2007 numbers. Eckstein has a career OPS of 731 against lefties. In my eyes, Eck is the starter and Mac will play sparingly unless somebody gets injured, or only as a defensive sub in close games.

Thomas - Wednesday, January 16 2008 @ 12:04 PM EST (#178970) #

I just want to echo the sentiment that my respect for Glaus has really grown with the way he handled all of this. To keep quiet about that trade request and to continue to go ahead and play as often as he could, clearly often in pain or discomfort, for a team that wasn't in any pennant race was a stand-up thing to do. In an era where a lot of athletes make it clear very quickly when they are unhappy it's nice to see Glaus make a request, respect JP's answer of 'I'll explore options but I can't promise anything' by not turning it into a bigger issue and then continue to go out and give 100%.

To touch on the LaRoche question from earlier in the thread, many Cardinals fans were asking the same question after the trade was made. They had even more of a reason to want a young 3B in return for Rolen as they are clearly in a rebuilding mode and Glaus is on a team that is, in all likelihood, going nowhere in 2008. The answer is apparently that in return for trading LaRoche for Rolen the Dodgers wanted the Cardinals to take Juan Pierre and his contract. That's the word on the street from St. Louis.

It doesn't answer what JP could have dealt Glaus for at last year's deadline, but if the current price for LaRoche was four years of Juan Pierre that's a good answer as to why the team opted for Rolen instead.

Mylegacy - Wednesday, January 16 2008 @ 02:13 PM EST (#178974) #

At the Blog: "All Your Base Are Belong to Rios" they have a terrific picture of Mutt and Jeff er...Rolen and Eckstein standing on the Rogers Center field looking up at the CN Tower. It's wonderful. Pity I don't know to import it here. Go have a look at it.

ramone - Wednesday, January 16 2008 @ 02:42 PM EST (#178975) #

The national post has an article with a few jays updates: Trying to sign rios and hill long term , catching althernatives, ect.

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/postedsports/archive/2008/01/15/blue-jays-still-looking-to-do-more.aspx

Scott Rolen may not be the last piece the Toronto Blue Jays add before the 2008 season. General manager J.P. Riccciardi said Tuesday he was looking at some small additions, specifically a player other than veteran Sal Fasano as a backup for starting catcher Gregg Zaun. "We'll see, we should know within the next week," Ricciardi said.

I found this part the most interesting, must be some sort of deal in the works, perhaps Frasor and someone else in the pen for a back up catcher?

Mike Green - Wednesday, January 16 2008 @ 02:58 PM EST (#178976) #

Speaking of addition by subtraction, the difference between Curtis Thigpen 2008 (or a reasonable veteran alternative) and Jason Phillips 2007 is probably about 1 win. Fairly accounting for defence, Phillips was about 1 win below replacement level even in the limited playing time that he had.

SheldonL - Wednesday, January 16 2008 @ 03:01 PM EST (#178977) #

I would not welcome a trade involving Jason Frasor for a backup catcher.

Frasor has consistently reduced his WHIP and BAA every year. His K rate has also improved. He's a qualtiy relief pitcher and I think a good bullpen helps out a team alot more than a lights out closer. We're lucky that our "bridge" to the closer consists of guys like Downs, Accardo, Janssen and Frasor. What's more is that we have guys like Tallet and League who could also be counted on in late game situations.

Shaker - Wednesday, January 16 2008 @ 03:44 PM EST (#178978) #

ShledonL, I think the depth of the bullpen that you speak of is the very reason that Frasor is expendable. I like Frasor a lot, but it appeared that Gibbons had lost faith in him, only using him in low-stress situations last year. I would think other teams would value Frasor more highly than Jays management, meaning he might be a useful trading chip.

One player I would like to see come over to the Jays would be Mark Teahen. He is a lefty swinger who can play 3B, RF, LF, 1B and DH. He is a league average hitter, but hits RHP quite a bit better than pretty much all Jays did last year. His 3 year line (1000 ABs) vs RHP is .286/.352/.488 for an OPS of .800. I understand that his D at 3B is not particularly good, but I am not advocating he start over Rolen, just that he would be an adequate backup for 30-40 games. His salary will be somewhere around $1M (he made $410K last year). Given that he gets on base vs RHP, doesn't cost a lot and occupies only 1 roster spot while offering positional flexibilty, I think he would be a great addition to the Jays. The reason the Royals might part with Teahen is that they have a pretty full OF now (DeJesus, Guillen, Gathright etc) and a fair amount of LHB (Gordon, Gathright, DeJesus, Gload, Maeier and Callaspo is a switcher).

I'm not entirely sure what a fair trade offer would be for Teahen, but I'm guessing Frasor and a non-25 man roster P (Banks, Wolfe?) would get it done and really improve our ballclub if (when?) Rolen went down.

JohnnyMac - Wednesday, January 16 2008 @ 03:57 PM EST (#178979) #

Scott Rolen's already got one fan. Check out Wilner's newest blog post. Great stuff.

John Northey - Wednesday, January 16 2008 @ 04:16 PM EST (#178980) #

Mark Teahen? Not a chance that even the Royals give up on an everyday RF who slugged over 500 in '06 and was at OPS+ of 98 last season, who is just 26, entering maybe his first arbitration year (not sure if he is a super-2 or not) for a middle reliever. They would demand some young talent who is pre-arbitration at least and given Teahan would be no more than a backup here it just wouldn't make any sense.

John Northey - Wednesday, January 16 2008 @ 04:25 PM EST (#178981) #

I like Frasor and feel he could be valuable to the Jays but...

In the pen we have Accardo, Downs, Ryan (if healthy), Janssen (if not in the rotation) ahead of him in the depth chart plus League and Wolfe could easily move ahead of him as well. At 30 only Ryan and Downs are older (32). Frasor is in year 2 of arbitration and will cost over $1 million and has had his ERA+ get worse each of the past two seasons although his ratios by pitch (nice new feature on B-R) appear fairly steady for the last 3 seasons.

To me Frasor is a very easy guy to deal. A solid middle man who teams could use but is easily replaced from within here. If we could get a decent backup catcher for him I'd be very happy as that backup catcher will most likely get into more important situations than Frasor over the course of a season and our backups there are less than ideal. Heck, I'd mix Frasor with Tallet if it got a solid backup catcher for '08 who is early in arbitration years and could be a backup/regular in '09 with Diaz mixed in.

timpinder - Wednesday, January 16 2008 @ 04:46 PM EST (#178982) #

I like the idea of signing Rios for four or five years. He's only going to get better and he provides insurance in CF if Wells gets hurt. Signing Rios has the added bonus of providing the Jays with a DH/1B for 2010 and beyond, as Lind could DH and play 1B when Snider is ready to take over in LF. I really hope Rios agrees to an extension.

ramone - Wednesday, January 16 2008 @ 05:17 PM EST (#178986) #

I'm sure this has been speculated on somewhere in the threads but I can't help feeling somewhat giddy (for lack of a better word) at the thought of a healthy Halladay pitching with the this defense behind him, assuming (hoping) Mac is starting every time Halladay starts. Hell, might as well start Johnson in left regardless of the pitching matchup everytime Halladay pitches as well, any guesses on what his ERA might look like?

HollywoodHartman - Wednesday, January 16 2008 @ 05:29 PM EST (#178987) #

-3.87?

Shaker - Wednesday, January 16 2008 @ 06:07 PM EST (#178988) #

John, re Mark Teahen, you are now putting me in the awkward position of diminishing the player I am touting for acquisition. So let's be clear that we are talking about Teahen being more valuable to the Jays than the Royals and that Frasor would be more valuable to KC than Toronto.

You correctly pointed out that Teahen had an SLG of >.500 in '06, but didn't mention that in '05 it was .376 and in '07 his .410 SLG was the lowest among all AL RF (excluding rookie Delmon Young who will now likely play CF). Also Teahen's 2006 was spiked upwards by a ridiculous July where he hit 7 HRs in 91 ABs (he hit 7 HRs in 544 ABs in 2007). His defense is not particularly strong and his top 2 positions are covered by Alex Gordon and Jose Guillen.

I think you overrate Teahen, he has been in the league for essentially 3 full seasons (1400 ABs) and has a career SLG of .429 - no great shakes for a 3B or a RF. I agree his salary is attractive but think the Jays could easily send $1M to KC to help pay for Frasor. Given the injuries we suffered last year at 3B, CF, LF and 1B, I think Teahen could be a very valuable insurance policy and that he would likely get 400 PAs as a Jay and thus provide more value to us than Frasor's 50 low leverage innings. KC on the other hand could make more use out of Frasor than we will.

As I posted above, I'm not sure what it would take to pry him away from KC, but I'm sure he's not untouchable. I'd think Frasor and a young pitcher (Banks or League or Romero perhaps) might do it. If they wanted Scutaro we could kick him in obviously too.

scottt - Wednesday, January 16 2008 @ 07:06 PM EST (#178990) #

If Glaus thought he was going to have a great year, would he vest his player option to be traded to a rebuilding club?

Either Glaus himself isn't too optimistic about his foot or he thinks the turf makes a hell of a difference.

John Northey - Wednesday, January 16 2008 @ 08:39 PM EST (#178991) #

Shaker, good point on how Teahen isn't 'all that' so to speak. I know I wouldn't want him as an everyday outfielder myself but this is KC we are talking about. Limited budget, rebuilding (for the past 20 years), and this guy did have a good year very recently. I don't think that year is his true level, that 07 was far closer to it. However, if I ran KC I sure wouldn't trade him for a 30 year old reliever who seems to get demoted for a week or two each season and had a 4.58 ERA last year.

Teahen is a guy I'd keep an eye on and let KC know we had some interest in. I figure if KC cuts his playing time this season (not a lock, he did have the best OPS of the 3 outfielders and by a fair amount) then he'll be cheaper next winter and might be available for a reliever. But not this year. Emil Brown on the other hand would be free of charge if you take his salary on I figure. Not that we'd want him here but he'll lose playing time before Teahen does. Gathright should take most of that, with Costa in the mix but those two are 27 and 26 this season and that doesn't scream prospect to me. KC's true prospects (under 26 next year) are still too low down in the minors to jump in during '08.

Nah. KC will keep Teahen for '08 unless they get two breakouts in the outfield I suspect. Then, and only then, will he be available in trade. Plus we do have Stairs and Lind in the outfield and I suspect Teahen isn't the best at third given he didn't get a single inning in at third in '08.

Funny note about Teahen. His age 25 #2 comp is Alex Rios and #7 is Ron Northey (hey, not often I see my last name up there). A very good comp list though as it includes, in order, Bonilla, Rios, Kapler, Torii Hunter, Ray Lankford, Luis Gonzalez, Northey, Tim Wallach, Terrence Long, and Dan Ford. A 110 average OPS+ for that group from 26 on. Interesting.

Like I said though, if the Royals would dump him for Frasor go for it. But I really, really doubt they would until, at the earliest, the end of spring if they get too high on other older rookies or mid-season if other guys jump in.

Denoit - Wednesday, January 16 2008 @ 08:43 PM EST (#178992) #

Halladay's ERA - 2.95

Pistol - Wednesday, January 16 2008 @ 09:35 PM EST (#178996) #

I'm going a little bit by memory here....

If I recall correctly, Teahen was sent to the minors early in 2006. I think he redid his swing and when he was called back up he was really hot - a .974 2nd half OPS. Given that you could probably throw out his 2005 numbers. Last year he was at a 98 OPS+.

So he's cheap, young and pretty good right now. There's no reason for the Royals to trade a good player with upside, especially for a reliever and/or C level prospect(s).

ChicagoJaysFan - Wednesday, January 16 2008 @ 10:25 PM EST (#178999) #

He's a qualtiy relief pitcher and I think a good bullpen helps out a team alot more than a lights out closer.

I think I'm in the minority here, but I don't like Frasor as a pitcher and especially don't see him as a quality relief pitcher.

His years look good in the aggregate if you look at his peripherals, but every year or so he completely loses command of his secondary pitch (the curve that didn't in 2006 and the slider in end-April/early-May and end-June/early-July this year being some recent examples). When he's on, he's a solid 7th inning guy. When he's off, he's a great AA pitcher.

I like him as the 6th guy in a 7-man pen or a 5th guy in a 6-man pen (the last spot being a developmental spot for starters, a la Weaver), but in my mind that role is a lot less important than a back-up catcher to Zaun, who needs someone that can go about 60 or so games a year. Especially when considering the depth of our bullpen (I like Accardo, Ryan, Tallet, Downs, League, Wolfe, Wells (as the 7th man), Litsch, Davis Romero (assuming he's healthy), and Banks as contributors to our pen that can help make up for the loss of Frasor).

I think Frasor has a role on this team, but I'd prefer a back-up catcher.

Wildrose - Wednesday, January 16 2008 @ 11:32 PM EST (#179002) #

Teahen oddly enough is a Canadian citizen. Born and raised in California, Mark aquired his citizenship through his dad a former national team player from In St. Mary's Ontario .

SheldonL - Thursday, January 17 2008 @ 01:04 AM EST (#179005) #

since we're doing fun facts about Mark Teahen,

he was compared in moneyball to Jason Giambi.

LOL. Now, let's put this in perspective. He's a big guy who is a talented hitter, as shown the last couple of years. In '06 as Pistol noted, he came up to the big leagues for a second time and he raked. Last year, despite his seeming lack of power, he rapped a lot of singles.
His size seems to suggest that there's alot of unearthed power in him. He's a guy that I would definitely trade Frasor for. But I doubt KC would trade him for the reasons that Pistol provided as well as the fact that he's a guy with lots of potential!

Btw, with relief pitchers, you may as well throw out the ERA stat because of the small sample size. Look at the peripherals, it's more telling. If you insist at looking at ERA, his career ERA is 4.00 in 250 IP.

Pistol - Thursday, January 17 2008 @ 10:57 AM EST (#179011) #

Interesting point raised in this article. Rolen (or Glaus) could now opt out of their contract following the 08 season. It doesn't seem likely, but it's a possibility.

Original Ryan - Thursday, January 17 2008 @ 11:17 AM EST (#179012) #

Interesting point raised in this article. Rolen (or Glaus) could now opt out of their contract following the 08 season. It doesn't seem likely, but it's a possibility.

This is pure speculation on my part, but I'm guessing both players waived their right to demand a trade. Since both players agreed to waive their no trade clauses (and in Glaus's case, he also agreed to exercise his option year), I would assume they also agreed not to opt out after one year. It would be a pretty big oversight by each team if they didn't get that kind of assurance beforehand.

Shaker - Thursday, January 17 2008 @ 12:22 PM EST (#179014) #

I agree, O Ryan, I read this and assumed they had both used up their trade demand right: "Exercising this right of forced trade/forced free agency does not come without penalty to the player. Naturally, the player won�t be permitted to pull the same trick with his next team. He also, regardless of the length of his existing contract, surrenders three years of free agency. That means the team he is being dealt to will have arbitration rights and renewal rights for the years after the contract that does not reach three years after the deal. The player is bound by CBA to accept arbitration with that team. (Again, using Rolen as an example: His deal lasts until 2010, a forced trade would be 2009 and 2010 and his new team would be able to trigger.)"

I still think it is a bit too optimistic to assume Rolen can play a full season and think that expecting about 100 games is more realistic. Sadly this leaves 50ish games of either Scutaro or JMac manning 3B, which is pretty unacceptable. I think this means our need to acquire Teahen or someone similar is quite high. I wonder whether Bauxites or Dayton Moore would think Adam Lind for Teahen would be acceptable? Lind is younger, cheaper and might have more upside, but he is a weak defender and can't play 3B. With VW and Rios (soon?) locked up for a while and with Snider nipping at Lind's heels, it seems to me that Teahen might have more use to us over the next year or two.

If you think Lind for Teahen is imbalanced then you could add $ or prospects to even it out. Thoughts?

sweat - Thursday, January 17 2008 @ 12:47 PM EST (#179015) #

Hisnke would probably be a better fit, seeing as he is a lefty who is a FA, and wont command much. He is also a good team guy.

melondough - Thursday, January 17 2008 @ 02:03 PM EST (#179016) #

I found this part the most interesting, must be some sort of deal in the works, perhaps Frasor and someone else in the pen for a back up catcher?

How about a catcher out of San Diego. Don't they have a few (i.e.Bard, Barrett, Morton, Fick)? Otherwise who intrigues you the most and is Frasor the most sensible guy to deal? It would be nice to open up another thread since it seems likely to be a point of discussion with a signing likely coming this week (according to comments JP made at the Rolen press conference).

Chuck - Thursday, January 17 2008 @ 02:05 PM EST (#179017) #

On the topic of who may soak up the non-Rolen 3B at-bats, Chris Dial was not overly impressed with Russ Adams' brief audition there late last season.

John Northey - Thursday, January 17 2008 @ 02:15 PM EST (#179019) #

One big issue with backups is where do they fit on this team?

We have our starting 9...
Zaun/Overbay/Hill/Rolen/Eckstein/Stairs/Wells/Rios/Thomas

We have backups who will get a fair amount of playing time...
Fasano/McDonald/Johnson

And our overall utility guy in Scutaro (260/332/361 last year, 86 OPS+ lifetime).

That totals to 13 guys. Given a 12 man pitching staff is likely I don't see a slot for Hinske or Teahen or anyone. We also have Thigpen, Lind, Diaz, Olmedo, Adams, and others in AAA waiting for a shot.

Hinske last year hit 204/317/398 and now is at 99 lifetime for OPS+ and pretty much is limited to 1B/LF/RF. Teahen is a lot better at 285/353/410 last year and 100 OPS+ lifetime and is probably more able to play third than Hinske at this point but would he work as a 6th infielder or 5th outfielder?

To me Hinske is a guy I'd sign to a AAA deal but no more than that. Teahen I'd like but only if Stairs and Lind both are gone from the team or Rios is traded somewhere as he isn't a bench guy at this stage of his career.

Nah. Thigpen is the backup infield/catcher when someone goes down at either position with Diaz next behind the plate and Adams or Olmedo next in the infield. Lind for the outfield. I'd like a better backup for third but there really isn't anywhere to put that backup and Scutaro at least won't embarass the team anywhere defensively (maybe bad at SS but we have 2 guys there in the majors and 2 more in the minors before Scutaro would spend more than a few innings there - at which point this year would probably be looking like 2004).

I say go for a backup catcher or an improvement somewhere else. 100+ OPS+ guys are not around as backup infielders.

ChicagoJaysFan - Thursday, January 17 2008 @ 02:25 PM EST (#179020) #

Hisnke would probably be a better fit, seeing as he is a lefty who is a FA, and wont command much. He is also a good team guy.

He's also a bad baseball player and any at-bats he'd take would come at the expense of a better hitter. Further to JN's comment, Hinske didn't even have the lefty-bat working in his advantage last year as he actually hit worse against righties than lefties (.205/.311/.398 against RHPs in almost 200 AB's). Scutaro's career against RHPs is a similar .266/.318/.383.

I like Hinske as a AAA signing in case he find his stroke again, but nothing beyond that.

melondough - Thursday, January 17 2008 @ 02:30 PM EST (#179021) #

If we could get fair market value for Overbay (i.e. value being based on a combination of his 2 years here) then I would prefer to move him and let Stairs and Lind take over revolving 1B and OF with Reed. I think it is a waste to either leave Lind on the bench or to stock him in AAA. I see Lind as a definate breakout candidate. The question is who needs a 1B and would they have what we can use - a legit #3 or #4 starter or a 2nd legit right-handed catcher plus a young batter with speed and promise to come off the bench.

Chuck - Thursday, January 17 2008 @ 02:35 PM EST (#179022) #

Given a 12 man pitching staff

And therein lies the insanity, doesn't it?

John Northey - Thursday, January 17 2008 @ 02:38 PM EST (#179023) #

Dial makes a good point about Adams being moved off SS due to his arm then being put at third. I think everyone pretty much knew that was a disaster waiting to happen.

I'm guessing the Jays did it to give Adams a shot at a super-utility role but boy did Adams fail. I figure they know Hill is at second so all Adams can be is a AAA 2B who gets called up whenever Hill is DL'ed. I'd have put Adams at third in AAA first before wasting time with him doing it in the majors though. With Adams arm issues his career is now stuck at AAA with his only hope for a big payday being a Japanese team getting desperate for a second baseman.

John Northey - Thursday, January 17 2008 @ 02:46 PM EST (#179024) #

Yeah, 12 pitchers seems a bit much but is it?

Who would get more playing time and provide more value to the team? A 5th outfielder (behind Wells/Rios/Johnson/Stairs), a 6th non-first base infielder (Hill/Eckstien/McDonald/Rolen/Scutaro), a backup at first to Overbay, a third catcher, or a 7th reliever?

The only guys you have to run for are the catchers, Overbay, and Thomas. The guys you have to hit for are McDonald, Scutaro, and Fasano. The bench already has Scutaro/McDonald for running/defense and either Johnson or Stairs for hitting. Situations where you pinch run are rare (low scoring game, 8th inning or later, slow poke gets on) so you probably won't need more than one of them. Same for pinch hitting in the AL.

The 7th reliever's purpose is to give the pen a day off when the Jays or the other team goes nuts offensively. Perfect for a Rule V pick.

Back in '85 the Jays won 99 games with 2 rule V'ers who barely played. I'm not going to worry too much about the last roster slot being a hitter/fielder/runner/reliever but I can certainly see why the Jays are going with the reliever.

MatO - Thursday, January 17 2008 @ 03:10 PM EST (#179025) #

12 pitchers is a function of pitch counts. Back in 1985 nobody worried about pitch counts so starters went longer. Now everyone screams if a starter goes over 110 pitches. When you play the Yankees and Sox 40 times a year the starters are out a lot earlier because they take a lot of pitches.

binnister - Thursday, January 17 2008 @ 03:34 PM EST (#179027) #

Chris Dial was not overly impressed with Russ Adams' ....

I don't know if I'm getting too off topic here, but that same article discussed a poor rating for the Zaun/Phillips tandem in 2007. I'm wondering, does the metric used take into account the pitcher and his ability (or lack of) to get the ball accross the plate in a timely matter? I know that Zaun isn't that great, but

As an example of this, I submit Bengi Molina's 2006 year. Previous to this, his SB-caught% in 2005 was in the 30's. It then dropped to 18% during his year with Toronto, and shot back up over 30% again with the Giants.

How much does this defensive metric take into account?

Mike Green - Thursday, January 17 2008 @ 03:34 PM EST (#179028) #

I think that there are other factors at play, MatO. The average length of each relief appearance is way down, thanks to the platoon pitcher philosophy of Mr. LaRussa. It seems hard to believe, but less than 15 years ago there was a bullpen with all right-handers. That would be the 94 Expos. They managed on 10-11 pitchers, with the starters not being overworked. The relievers just went longer each outing as there was no platoon switching.

Shaker - Thursday, January 17 2008 @ 03:58 PM EST (#179029) #

Didn't the Angels have an all-Righty bullpen as recently as 2006?

Does anyone think Thigpen could play a decent (back-up) 3B, a la Inge?

zeppelinkm - Thursday, January 17 2008 @ 03:59 PM EST (#179030) #

OK! I want someone to address what I am about to say.

Again and again on this site people are putting down Lind's defensive capabilities and talking about his offensive potential. My rant is focused on his defense.

Is it really that bad? I think Lind doesn't LOOK good out there, but I think he makes pretty good reads off balls and his glove is good (so he does actually catch the balls he gets too) and so is his arm.

I've seen people site Dial as a good source for defense. Look at this article: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/dialed_in/discussion/the_2007_al_gold_glove_awards/

Now that seems to suggest Lind is at least decent? And now I gotta run so I don't have time to look this up but I seem to recall Lind holding his own when it came to outfield assists.

Respect people. Respect the Lind in LF!

MatO - Thursday, January 17 2008 @ 04:19 PM EST (#179031) #

Agreed Mike. I think Larussa also invented the one inning closer with Eckersley which I'm sure also contributes.

John Northey - Thursday, January 17 2008 @ 05:16 PM EST (#179032) #

Making a pen out of 1 inning at the most guys has been a steady shift. But why did it happen? I suspect we'd find that relievers ERA vs starters ERA has spread out over the years. Lets check (thank you baseball-reference.com)

All figures are ERA for the full major leagues.

2007: Starters:4.63 Relievers:4.19
1997: Starters:4.45 Relievers:4.26
1987: Starters:4.40 Relievers:4.06
1977: Starters:4.11 Relievers:3.73
1967: Starters:3.34 Relievers:3.21
1957: Starters:3.84 Relievers:3.80

Interesting. A more comprehensive study would be needed to say for certain but it looks like pre-Fingers/Gossage/etc. we had the pen barely doing better than starters (1-4% for 57/67) then came the 3 inning closer era (77/87) where the pen showed its stuff (8/9% better) and now in the 1 inning or less era we have mixed results with 97 being the same as the pre-closer era (4%) and '07 matching the 3 inning guys (10%).

Checking 2002 (grabbing the middle at random) we get ERA's of 4.41 vs 4.03 which is a spread of 9%.

So from this I suspect what we see is that the pre-closer era did not have much better results from the pen than the starters, then the 3 inning guys vs today has resulted in about a 1-2% improvement from the pen vs starters. Sadly it is hard to say if the overall pitching staff performance is better as virtually everyone shifted at the same time and even if they didn't it would've been hard to measure how much was quality vs how much was strategy.

Still, in the end what I see is the 7 man pen appears to be working. You are getting low runs allowed out of guys who wouldn't even be in the majors 40 years ago. And after all, that is the goal with a pitching staff.

The experiment that LaRussa did a few years back, of going with 2-3 pitchers per game and telling the starter he gets just 3-5 innings at most might just be the way of the future. If I ran the Pirates (for example) I'd consider it as what do they have to lose? If low end pitchers can produce above average results from the pen, and you go with 12 pitchers where 4 are available each game for a max of 2 innings each then it just might work. Sure would screw up teams that platoon a lot.

CSHunt68 - Thursday, January 17 2008 @ 06:19 PM EST (#179035) #

You need to factor in four-man vs. five-man rotations, at the very least.

Ryan Day - Thursday, January 17 2008 @ 06:53 PM EST (#179036) #

Buck Coats has played a fair bit of infield in the minors, mostly at shortstop. If he could play a passable third, he'd be a very useful player to have around.

And if the Jays aren't going to use Thigpen as a catcher this year, they might as well go ahead with the super-sub idea.
If he could play some third, a bit of second, and catch, he'd be pretty valuable.

timpinder - Thursday, January 17 2008 @ 07:07 PM EST (#179037) #

Lind may be a decent defensive LF, but if the Jays keep Rios then Lind's eventually going to be forced out of the outfield by Snider, perhaps as early as 2009. I think that's why many project his future with the Jays as a 1B or DH. I predict one of Lind or Rios will eventually be moved for pitching or a SS though.

Original Ryan - Thursday, January 17 2008 @ 08:32 PM EST (#179040) #

Another factor is the increased offense in baseball. Pitchers throw more pitches per inning now than they used to, so the pitch count gets up there a bit quicker.

That said, I think the Jays could get away with having just six relievers. There have been periods over the past few years where that seventh guy hasn't gotten much work.

melondough - Thursday, January 17 2008 @ 09:01 PM EST (#179045) #

Chacin and Tallet avoid arbitration:

Chacin:$725,000

Tallet:$640,000

http://canadianpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5iIw1RLeoaEOuvoLK8mx0i4QLc8WQ

Just Rios, Scutaro, Fraser, and Downs left. Who if any of those is most likely to be the first Jay to go to arbitration since Bill Risley did in 1997?

HollywoodHartman - Thursday, January 17 2008 @ 10:12 PM EST (#179046) #

Take Downs, Frasor and most likely Scutaro off the list, leaving only Rios. Downs signed a 3 year $10 mil contract. Downs gets $2.25 million this year, $3.75 million next year and $4 million in 2010. He made $1.05 million last season. Frasor gets $1.125 mil and the Jays are supposedly close with Scutaro.

http://tinyurl.com/2p8a8u

Thomas - Thursday, January 17 2008 @ 10:17 PM EST (#179047) #

New thread up to deal with the signings. Thanks for the heads-up, as you guys posted that right as I was preparing the new thread.

John Northey - Thursday, January 17 2008 @ 11:19 PM EST (#179056) #

Good point on how little the 7th guy has been used around here normally. League was the 7th for a month with one or two appearances in '06 iirc. That is why I say use it for the rule 5 guy as an extra hitter on the bench would probably just get splinters in his butt anyways.

SheldonL - Friday, January 18 2008 @ 12:25 AM EST (#179063) #

timpinder, why don't we stop projecting Lind and Snider as sure things. I realize that they're definitely on track but some guys just struggle initially. So why don't we worry about who our everyday left-fielder will be when the time comes (ie. when Wells forced the Jays to trade Shannon Stewart...MOndesi and Cruz Jr were the others).
Why don't we let our young guys force our hand. Let's ride the Stairs/Johnson platoon for as long as it lasts with Lind in AAA...it's likely that lind will tear it up and force our hand...but let's worry about it when it happens

btw, that's the best type of worrying

Mylegacy - Friday, January 18 2008 @ 08:12 PM EST (#179123) #

I have one last thought on the Glaus - Rolen trade.

I feel like I did when the Jays didn't resign Dave Winfield and instead went for Paul Molitor. I knew I was going to miss Dave's big home run bat but I knew we were getting something very special in Paul. I feel the same way now.

Done Deal | 127 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.