It appears Rolen's offensive numbers are on the decline, but then again, Glaus could conceivably be headed in the same direction.

Can someone explain how this helps either team?  The only difference salary wise is that Rolen is guaranteed $12m through 2010, whereas Glaus has a player option through 2010 at the same amount.  We've traded away the rights to those compensatory picks if Glaus opts out.  I'd prefer the picks, truthfully.  Rolen's two years older as well.

Did we just get paid to take care of Larussa's problem?  Please tell me something else is coming back.

It would definately provide the Jays with more team speed so I would be happy to see it happen.  Does anyone want to take a guess at what the batting order would look like?  It's a pitty Rolen doesn't bat left.

both seemingly are on the decine

Both are obviously in decline -- their ages and health history have seen to that -- but I'd argue that the red flags swirling around Rolen are far more prominent than those swirling around Glaus.

Glaus' offensive decline has been barely perceptible. OPS+ from ages 28 to 30: 126, 122, 120. His defense is certainly in decline and health issues are likely to be a recurring theme from here on out.

Rolen, a year older, has been hurt, a lot, and is coming off surgery. OPS+ from ages 28 to 31: 157, 84, 126, 89. His defense has probably taken a hit as he's aged, but he's still a plus defender.

Rolen has shown sub-400 SLG power in two of the past three years, health obviously being the key factor. But on what basis should we be optimistic that this will turn around, that he'll come back from injury yet again? If Rolen never again posted a 100 OPS+, it wouldn't shock me.

Add Rolen's health to the long list of things that have to break right for the Jays to win any more than 85 games in 2008. I'm not crazy about this deal at all.

I wouldn't wager any money on a footrace between Glaus and Rolen.

Is Rolen a dead pull hitter?  Or is he like Glaus - he can take a pitch to right center if he's been slumping for a month or so?

Is Rolen a dead pull hitter?  Or is he like Glaus - he can take a pitch to right center if he's been slumping for a month or so?

I'm not sure I know the answer to that, but Rolen's LHP/RHP career splits are less skewed than Glaus' (Rolen: 922/865, Glaus: 985/816). That's good, or at least would be if Rolen weren't one mother of a damaged piece of merchandise.

The guys on the Cards MLB message board seem to think Rolen's shoulder is "toast." However even with that his OPS against righties in 07 was 770. Glaus' was 728 against righties. Righties are two thirds of the at bats. Rolen's defensive ability is gold glovish. Rolen and JMac on the left, Hill and Overbay on the right - when the game is on the line our pitchers will have happy faces!

IF - Scott's shoulder surgery keeps his shoulder from getting worse we're improved aginst righties - which has been our BIG weakness offensively. IF - the surgery has improved his ability to hit we've made a real good deal.

However, even though Glaus was often reduced to a statue on defense - I love the guy. I'll miss his "pop-ups" that came down for homers in the third deck!

This is a doctors trade, whichever teams doctors better understand the injury status of their player will win.  The players numbers are similar, it comes down to how many games they end up playing.  While St. Louis want to get rid of Rolen I think the Jays also want to get rid of Glaus.  I am sure we will hear that from Blair if this deal goes through.  Glaus is talented but doesn't work on his game and I think the Jays believe some of his repeat injuries could be lessened if he did work out more.

Adding Rolen will reduce the Jays parade of slugs on the bases, at least Rolen can run.

From http://baseball.suite101.com/article.cfm/baseballs_five_best_third_baseman written this past September.

BASEBALL'S BEST FIVE THIRD BASEMAN:

"Honorable Mention: Scott Rolen.

Rolen is in the midst of a very bad season. Injuries have led to slumps, and as a result, he is hitting more like Wayne Garrett than Scott Rolen. But when this guy is healthy, he is the best defensive third baseman in the game (as evidenced by his seven Gold Glove awards in the last nine years), and is among the top hitters at the hot corner (.283 career BA, 261 HR and 1,102 RBI -- all by age 32). Look for him to rebound next season."

Let's hope he is right.

he is the best defensive third baseman in the game (as evidenced by his seven Gold Glove awards in the last nine years)

Is that evidence? 

IF Rolen's injury situation is stabilized by his surgery (even if not improved) this will give us a transition to Aherns in 2011.

Long term(ish) 3rd and SS are our two black holes. Reasonable guys in the system for other positions. Now if only Snider can play SS - JOKE.

If Rolen can stay healthy he'll probably win another gold glove in '08. He has great instincts and soft hands with a decent arm. Rolen/JMac/Hill/Overbay would make for the best defensive infield in baseball when put together.

Obviously, I'm a big Scott Rolen fan and would like to see this trade go through. However, Rolen has injury issues just the same as Glaus. This could be a very interesting deal to follow next season.

If this trade becomes official, it will be interesting to see if there are any prospects involved.

The discussion on XM radio was that the teams are discussing prospects too. Nothing confirmed, just thought I'd pass on what was heard.

I make this trade regardless, it was hard to see glaus as a 3B for a few more seasons. He could barely walk.

You do realize Glaus had plantar faciaitis?  Have you any idea how hard that can be sometimes?  There's a good chance that this deal shakes down as Glaus plus two top 50 draft choice in 2009 for Scott Rolen.

Thanks for the heads up on prospects, Sherrystar.

If I'm JP I would insist on getting back a legit prospect as well (on top of the money). Basically, the Jays are taking on an extra year of salary (and possibly 2 if Glaus doesn't exercise his option), a player who hasn't shown that he's rebounded from his injury, and someone that they need to trade given his relationship with LaRussa. As much as I think that Glaus should be traded, the Jays are taking the larger risk acquiring Rolen. So I would want someone like Bryan Anderson who is good prospect, is blocked by Molina, and might be of some use for the Jays.

In Rolen they get substantially better D, lower K rate, lower walk rate, better speed, less power, a higher .avg, and a less skewed split. It adds a little versatility to the lineup, but the injury concerns scare me. That being said, I think that he'll be highly motivated to prove TLR wrong. But, I would like to know that all avenues to trade Glaus have been exhausted before making this deal because I would be reluctant to take on an extra year of contract for an injury ravaged player. I heard the Dodgers were talking to Pedro Feliz. I would see if anything is there or at the very least the availability of Andy Laroche.

There's a good chance that this deal shakes down as Glaus plus two top 50 draft choice in 2009 for Scott Rolen.

You can't trade draft picks, even as PTBNL.

"There's a good chance that this deal shakes down as Glaus plus two top 50 draft choice in 2009 for Scott Rolen.

You can't trade draft picks, even as PTBNL."

He means that he may decline his option, then decline arby. If he is a type A (which is likely) it can get the Cards a first rounder and a sandwich pick.

I think Glaus being a type-A free agent in a couple of years is overly optimistic (I believe he'd have to be a type-A to get the two high draft choices referred to).

He'd be a free agent after this season.  Bill James projects an .851 OPS.  He'd be smart to pass up that $11.25m in 2009 for one last long-term deal, even if it means a paycut.

As for predicting Elias, I'll pass.

He'd be a free agent after this season.  Bill James projects an .851 OPS.  He'd be smart to pass up that $11.25m in 2009 for one last long-term deal, even if it means a paycut.

As for predicting Elias, I'll pass.

That makes sense about Glaus opting out this year - I forgot about that when thinking about the compensation.  That said, I still think he's going to have trouble being a type-A free agent.  He loses the 2006 season and all the HR and RBI that go with it (Elias uses only HR, RBI, AVG, OBP, and FP% when calculating rankings, as far as I know).  If he's not healthy, and even if he is, those #'s will be hard to replace.  Even with those, he's barely a type-A, so my guess is that he's a type-B next year at best.

If this trade happens I'll be quite happy.  Rolen is an upgrade in defense, he has been a better hitter than Glaus over their careers (.879 OPS versus .858 OPS), and he is signed through 2010.  I was concerned about the Jays' situation at 3B in 2009 and 2010 without Glaus, since there is absolutely nobody in the system near ready to take over and the free-agent third basemen scheduled to become available are less than inspiring.  Bill James projects they'll have very similar years at the plate in 2008 (.842 OPS versus .851 OPS).  They're both health concerns, but the deal won't happen if the Jays are convinced that Rolen's shoulder is still a problem.

I think the Jays will be a better team if the deal happens and they'll have 3B covered until, hopefully, Ahrens is ready.  I hope it happens, but both players would need to pass physicals and wave their no-trade clauses so I'm not getting my hopes up.

I can't believe some people on this board are defending this deal!  Sub .400 slugging Rolen is not an improvement on Glaus. 

I didn't realize the merit of any deal hinges only on comparative slugging percentages.  Rolen helps our defence which in turn helps our pitching and isn't that how you win championships?

A deal does not necessarily have to be "won".  This may well end up being a great trade for both teams.

Sorry but your analysis is ludicrous.

As for why JP does this deal, two words:
cost certainty
(not to mention position stability)

I really don't see how you can have position certainty with a guy whose health record is as checkered as Rolen's is. And if you don't have positional certainty, I don't see how that gives you cost certainty. You could dump money into a big hole in the backyard and say that's cost certainty too. It doesn't mean that you can reasonably expect to have a good return on your investment. You could end up needing a 3B, if Rolen's shoulder doesn't recover, but paying alot of money anyway. Some cost certainty that is. I generally feel that the shorter the length of the contract on injury prone players the more favourable that contract becomes.

I didn't realize the merit of any deal hinges only on comparative slugging percentages.  Rolen helps our defence which in turn helps our pitching and isn't that how you win championships?

Actually making the playoffs is a very good 1st step to winning championships. But, what was being pointed out is that if Rolen slug below .400, that's is well below what the average 3B hits. No amount of defense will overcome that. So the tradeoff may not be beneficial, especially considering Rolen's shoulder is a huge question mark.

Both players were also required to waive no-trade clauses.

A source told ESPN.com's Jayson Stark that Toronto will be responsible for the three years and $33 million left on Rolen's contract, while St. Louis will assume the $24.5 million owed Glaus through 2009. Since no cash is involved in the trade, it appears that no approval from commissioner Bud Selig's office is required.

That money was his at the end of the year if he wanted it regardless of how well he played in '08. Even after a mediocre year or a terrible one in which he didnt play, Glaus could have excersised the '09 option. It's absolutely shocking that he did it now simply so that the trade would go through - I really have to believe there will be more to this story.

RyanDay's link (above) to the story about Rolen's surgery being minor - and him looking to be OK for spring has me excited!

Glaus career stats: vs LHP 286/407/578 OPS 985   vs RHP 244/341/474 OPS 816

Rolen career stats: vs LHP 283/406/516 OPS 922   vs RHP 284/361/504 OPS 865

Very good production against lefties and much improved over Glaus against righties - which is WHAT WE NEED - AND gold glove defense.

JP - WELL DONE!

Did I write that the merit of the deal hinges only on each players slugging percentage?

No, but you might as well have - that's how it came accross to me.  You ignored to mention any positves that Rolen should bring - ie. better defense, hits righties better (which we need), can run, etc.

Now I remember why I post here once a year instead of once a day like I did four years ago.

Sorry I didn't realize that I could not voice my opinion. 

By the way, I find your "pitching and defence wins championships" claptrap equally ludicrous.

Of the years, many managers have "sang this tune", so I am not sure how it could be taken as ludicrous.  I believe it is absolutely true and I would bet that based on all his moves this year (as well as his failed attempts) JP thinks so to. 

There's certainly a risk to this deal but it seemed like the writing was on the wall for Glaus being moved.  There were rumblings during the season and the Jays have been very interested in Adam LaRoche from the Dodgers.  I'm guessing Rolen is going to be worth less to the Dodgers than Glaus but who knows?

Is it a good move?  Well...the Jays definately needed more production from 3B as in health.  Also Glaus much like the rest of the lineup, even when he was healthy did not hit RHP particularly well.  This trade doesn't address the health issue but if the shoulder surgery is a minor cleanup maybe this puts both players at at least an even risk of playing time.

I like this trade on the defensive side though really Glaus wasn't exactly a huge liability out there.  He was decent.  Rolen is quite good and as long as he plays he'll be a marked improvement.  A late inning infield of Rolen, McDonald, Hill, and Overbay isn't chopped liver.

For this deal to really work though, Rolen has to hit.  He doesn't have to be the all-star he used to be, he just has to be above average, particular against righties which Glaus wasn't.  Offensively, this is a pretty big gamble especially balanced against the THREE years at about the same salary Glaus was earning.  As opposed to one guaranteed year plus a player option for Glaus.  There is considerable downside on this deal for the Jays financially.

But if we operate under the assumption that the financial downside is going to be absorbed and glossed over (as it was in previous 3B investments like Hinske and Koskie) then I suppose from a pure baseball standpoint, this gives the Jays a chance at improvement.  Particularly in emphasizing an existing strength in pitching and fielding and at least pushing the lineup towards some semblance of left/right balance.

Maybe JP is hoping that, as Boston struck gold with Mike Lowell, the Jays can do the same with Rolen.  I do agree with the perception that the Jays are tilting heavily towards pitching and defense.  In recent years, Toronto has tried to out-slug Boston and New York with limited results, so why not try going in the other direction for a while?  Now if they could just get a few players with some speed.

I'm still convinced that the Jays could make a play for Santana, and having the best defense in the American League would be a big selling point.

• On defence, improved range and arm at 3rd, I suspect will largely offset the decline at SS
• When both are healthy, Rolen and Glaus are relatively close offensively, while Eckstein of course is significantly stronger than McDonald
• Eckstein brings additional speed to the line up; Rolen provides more offence against righties
  
• Presuming Gibbons manages the field properly, McDonald brings his defensive acumen to tight games in late innings

I suppose we need a new "who has the best 3B in the AL East poll.

This time, leave out Rodriguez, so we can see who is the best 'o' the rest.

I'm not a big fan of the trade, I just see why there might be some appeal to the Jays to make the trade.  I think in this case the health and financial risk fairly outweigh that appeal for me.  I can't see myself making this trade.

I guess the question comes down to, if this was Glaus' walk year, would you have signed Rolen to three years, $11M per as a free agent?  That's really what the Jays have effectively done here assuming there are no other players or cash involved. 

I know the question isn't as easy as that because this WASN'T Glaus' walk year.  And whatever people say about the shoulder surgery situation, Glaus just seems like a better bet for short term production and health than Rolen.  Now you have both Wells and Rolen with significant shoulder concerns which may again play a factor in their production.

What do you think was going to happen at 3B when Glaus walked after next season?

that about sums up the reason behind this deal.  The jays were facing a huge void at the position, with not many free agent prospects likely available, and the most optomistic of minor league prospect projections still a few years away.