Canada on the road again?
What the heck?!?!
Once again the Jays' games against the Yankees and Red Sox are back-loaded. Over 55% of their games against Boston and New York are confined to just the last 25% of the season. If they're in a race it will certainly make for interesting baseball, but it will be tough. The Jays will definitely want to gather up the wins before the last two months. And that stretch from August 8th - August 25th is simply deadly. It could define their season, as they battle the Indians, Tigers, Red Sox and Yankees exclusively over that period. Those are the teams they'll be fighting with for the wild card, or maybe, just maybe, the division.
I've spent my free time the last two days watching the highlights from 2007 at Bluejays.com. Is it March yet?
This is true.
You may want to look into MLB.com's offseason package, Timpinder. They offer all of the season's games from every team plus the postseason for $15. I bought it last year to watch a couple of games and I was very satisfied with the product.
This is true.
The last time i went after work witha plastic water bottle I was asked to dump that. previous times i was not allowed to bring food in. I'm willing to admit that the policy may have changed but I would not expect that to be the case. I mean isn't that how movie theatres make money.. through concessions? I'm pretty sure they have the right to restrict peopel from bringing in food, even if it's not always exercised.
I'm pretty sure you're allowed to bring food into the Rogers Centre. The only thing you can't bring is drinks in glass containters.
Plastic bottles over 500mL are not allowed either. 500 mL or less is fine unless it's booze. I sneak in food all the time and have not had any issues with that in over 2 years.
HR%
Silva: 3.5%
Towers: 3.6%
If Silva does in fact sign for $11 million per year, I think it's safe to say Burnett is a gonner next year. Even if he only throws 135 - 165 innings again, there's still going to be a team out there that will top the $12 million per year he scheduled to make over the next two years with the Jays. If Burnett throws 190+ innings, he could command $16 million per year.
I also agree with Pistol regarding the minimum salary for the rookies. It should be increased. I feel sorry for a player who is good for two years and then gets hurt. You can't retire on $700,000 over two years, and a lot of these guys don't have an education. A responsible union would look after ALL of their members, not just the members who have 3 years or more on the job.
The Jays have to be considered a long shot to make the playoffs. The competition is just so fierce in the AL these days. But if a few things break right, they could stay in contention. My short list of must-happens:
- Healthy and productive Glaus, Wells, AJ, BJ, Halladay and Zaun
- McGowan continues his progress as a starter
- Marcum and Janssen don't significantly regress
- Rios regains his power stroke (after his post-All Star power outage in 2007)
- Lind approaches everyone's original expectations for him
- Thomas is productive for most of the season, not just a month or two
- Respectable (not awful) seasons from Reed and Lyle
Whew...that's a lot to ask. But I think it will have to be one of those seasons where most of the team brings their A game and stays healthy.
Jayson Stark just wrote an article about how tough it is for teams like the Jays and Indians to compete in the AL with the high spending Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers and Angels. He says they need to pray for health, out pitch the competition, and he quotes an AL executive who says that if the Jays were in the NL they'd, "win the National League".
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=3161000
I have to admit it's frustrating having this unbalanced schedule. People get tired of hearing Ricciardi whine about playing the Yanks and Sox 25% of the time and how tough it is in the AL East, but the fact is he's absolutely right. I sincerely belive that if the Jays were in the NL they'd be going to the playoffs next year, and probably with a safe lead too.
I think the reason people get tired of hearing Ricciardi whine about the Red Sox and Yankees is that he knew what he was up against when he took the job. It's not like MLB realigned the divisions and put Toronto up against these behemoths during his second year as Toronto's GM.
His story has gone from "we're gonna compete with these guys without spending much money" to "we can't compete without spending a lot more money". If he'd been singing that tune at his job interview it's almost certain someone else would be running the show.
"Their environment does make it unlikely that mediocre management will lead to good results".
I agree with that. Ricciardi has to be great, not mediocre, but he's probably been an average GM so far. If the Jays had signed Pavano, Giambi, Farnsworth, and Igawa to those contracts they'd be absolutely crippled right now. I think Posada and Rivera will prove to be poor signings too, based on their ages. Add Damon to that list, and those seven over-paid players alone would consume the entire Jays' payroll. The Yankees have the money to hide their mistakes though, and the Jays can't afford to make any mistakes.
They can be competative, but they're at a huge disadvantage. They can't afford to make any mistakes and everything must go right on the field as well. Check out the payroll disparity:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_teams_by_payroll
The difference between the top teams and just the average teams is simply enormous. If the Jays had even the Red Sox payroll, and players wanted to come to Toronto, they could have A-Rod playing at SS and wouldn't have any problem signing Johan Santana next year, and they'd still have money to spare.
If their management (on-field and on-field) was above average, they would be competitive. They have not maximized their revenue possibilities, nor spent as they might, nor handled/developed talent particularly well.
I'd disagree on a couple of things. Toronto faces two major hurtles in competition with the Red Sox and the Yankees.
Over the last few years, the front office has stablized spend, acquired and reinvested in severely needed upgrades to the Rogers Centre, and put the organization in the black with an expanded payroll. Of all the things to criticize the Jays for, their financial management over the last few years is not one of them.
Alex, I was actually speculating / advocating on this subject during the past season on the live in-game chats.
The course you outline above makes a lot of sense. We're on the hook this season anyway. If AJ comes up with a broken wing during this season the Jays could well find themselves on the hook for the remaining two years anyway.
I'd strongly consider re-negotiating now. Offer something like $14 for this season, $15 for the following two.
This would put him within the range of expectations and reduce his financial risk for injury this season.
Under this senario, the Jays are gambling an additional $8 million in order to keep him around. If he suffered serious injury they are already in for $36 million anyway. I'd say thats a pretty fair deal for the player and the team.
With McGowan looking like he's going to be the #2 starter the Jays were hoping to get with Burnett, and with the emergence of Marcum, Janssen and Litsch for the back-end of the rotation, I'd like to see the Jays take the draft picks and let Burnett walk. Shortstop is going to be a glaring hole again after this year, and it's possible that Glaus will be gone too. I'd much rather see the Jays spend Burnett's money on a guy like Rafael Furcal next off-season than on the oft-injured Burnett. Ricciardi can afford to wait and see how the young guys in his rotation continue to develop and how minor-leaguers like Purcey and Romero come along before committing $15 million per year to a flaky starter instead of a SS or 3B. If the pitching regresses, well you can always trade Rios (Wells isn't going anywhere in CF and Snider is on the way in RF), or you can spend the Burnett/Glaus money and go after a horse like Sabathia or Santana, if they become free agents next year, as scheduled (I can dream, can't I?)
Besides, I don't like the idea of A.J. Burnett making more money than Halladay.
I wasn't able to watch as many games as most fans during Delgado's tenure with the Jays. However, I quite often saw a couple of minutes at high leverage situations. I constantly remember Delgado fairing quite poorly all of the time (it was quite infuriating). Other fans were quite disappointed to have seen him leave the Jays. I felt that he wasn't worth the amount he wanted from the Jays (especially after being one of the best paid in the game). I don't feel much sympathy for him being duped by the Marlins (didn't get that no-trade clause in the contract) and packaged off to the Mets. Anyway, I was curious to see what his "clutch" hitting was like. I went to Baseball Reference to have a look.
Situation At Bats BA OBP SLG IBB SO
RISP 1861 293 415 559 169 447
Lifetime 6591 280 386 549 167 1601
April 1045 287 402 552 29 271
May 1285 266 363 516 35 342
June 1057 268 369 535 24 260
July 1061 272 386 543 24 266
August 1058 307 405 612 24 218
September 1085 285 395 542 31 244
Vs. RH 4646 288 401 587 153 1092
Vs. LH 1945 262 348 458 14 509
0 outs 2286 303 386 617 12 513
1 out 2026 291 390 545 65 470
2 outs 2277 248 382 484 90 618
1st inning 938 261 373 515 7 265
8th inning 753 262 364 497 29 193
9th inning 514 253 360 518 20 145
Extra inn. 114 237 383 404 14 25
2 out RISP 806 248 418 489 90 221
Vs. power pitcher 1872 246 361 491 57 564
With 2 strikes 3318 186 283 346 0 1553
Vs. relief pitcher 2141 268 381 522 97 540
2nd inning 610 318 415 682 2 142
I was quite surprised to see how great his overall hitting with RISP was, so I kept looking for more information. I was also surprised to see how strong his Aprils, Augusts, and Septembers were. What really stood out to me was his hitting depending on the number of outs. His numbers surged with none out but plunged with two outs. Does anyone know why? Also, his numbers in the first, eigth, ninth and extra innings were down. Seeing the starting pticher for the first time would probably lower his numbers. In the late innings, he might face more lefty-lefty match-ups. However, his numbers in the late innings were actually worse than his lifetime numbers against lefties. As you could see, Delgado did not fair well against relievers. Power pitchers also had a significant advantage over him. I know that if a batter has two strikes on him, his numbers will go down and Delgado's plunged. In addition to counter for his down 1st and late innings hitting, Delgado was a fierce hitter in the second inning. He hit more homeruns in this inning than any other (60). He had less 2nd inning at bats than any other inning than the 9th. Presumably, he was usually batting fourth. That means that he would usually be leading off in the second inning (unless it was already a blowout). Most of those 2nd inning HRs were then solo shots. Is anyone able to explain his monster 2nd innings? The final question for me is whether Delgado was as an effective hitter as his overall seasonal stats indicate? For me, he is not the hitter I would be looking for to come through in when the team needs him the most. Would a look at some of his game scores be indicative of the true situation?
Baseball America have had a couple of Jays related items recently, both for subscribers only. Yesterday BA had a short feature on Sergio Santos. The most promising aspect was his decision tp play winter ball in Mexico because a lot of the Mexican pitchers throw junk and that has been Santos' weakness. Hopefully that will pay-off in 2008.
Today BA have their organizational rankings with the Jays listed under the "teams in decline" category. There is not much justification for the decline claim and BA do call JP mediocre for his 83 win average. That strikes me as harsh, there are a lot of teams who would think 83 wins in the AL East is average, but using the word mediocre seems a cheap-shot to me.
Toronto is not in a position to bind itself to the inefficiencies of the free agent market.
The problem is that you can't decouple yourself from the free agent market and be successful—especially not in the AL East. The free agent market affects all other aspects of the market (eg the cost of buying out arbitration years, signing foreign players and making trades).
The D-Rays seem to be building around blue-chip prospects, but that’s only because they’ve finished at or near the bottom of the standings for years—hardly an appealing rebuilding strategy. And even the Rays will have to sign some pricey free agents eventually if they’re serious about making the playoffs.
With a huge payday looming as his incentive the odds are strong that Burnett pitches through his aches and pains this season to prove his durability.
I expect him to be one of the top handful of starters in the AL this season.
That being said I still wouldn't touch him on a long term deal.
Let's hope the Jays are in the hunt and that we derive some value out of him while he's here and motivated.
I think the worst-case scenario is the one where his contract is extended this winter to pay him $75M through 2011 and he blows out his arm in Spring Training next year.
Hopefully this one IS a theoretical concern, though.
If he blows his arm out in spring training or during the course of this season the Jays are on the hook for the remainer of his contract.
Thats why I would offer up, not an extentsion, but a buy out of his option. Who knows what that might cost, but I think Ricciardi and AJ might. If it cost $8-10 million to buy the opt out option I think this makes good financial sense. Burnett would still be young enough to go out and get himself one more great contract if he proved durable.
And if we have too much pitching then so what. Some say let Burnett walk this year and take the two first picks. Well, there's no guarantee he will bring back two first picks if Elias rates him a B class free agent, due to an injury. If Marcum and Purcey perform like some expect they might, they would certainly bring back young talented middle infielders in a trade, or a third baseman. This might be a faster route to getting long term solutions at those positions.
Mike highlights concern over the free agent market "Toronto is not in a position to bind itself to the inefficiencies of the free agent market." This is exactly why I explore the posibilty of buying Burnett's option. Everyone knows the price of wheat is going up. Everyone also understands there are hardly ever attainble free agent pitchers on the market. We have one of those right now. One who might be inclined to beleive a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, for a few dollars more. But who knows for sure. Only the parties to the agreement do.
Letting Burnett go for a pick or two does not fix next years hole at third or short. And anyway, how do we know the team won't waste those picks and where those picks will be in the draft.
I maintain that for a reasonable price, buying the option is a good and safe move.
Mlb.com the Jay's site, has an interview with Gibby about batting order. He's got Thomas, Glaus as 4 - 5. He mutters about Rios and Wells speed being 2 - 3 or 3 - 2. Eckstein is leadoff. The rest fall where they may.
I see Eckstein (360+ OBP) leadoff, Stairs (who will be our REGULAR LF'er against Righties - 2/3's of the at bats - Stairs was against righties 289/365/569 and lefties 289/396/422 I can't think of a better number two guy. Also as you all know he's a lefty.), Rios, Thomas, Glaus, Overbay, Wells, Zaun, Hill.
God willin' and the river don't rise that line-up has me going all goose-bumpy all over!
On Burnett. The guy is a HORSE! But a fragile one. I say beat his a** into the ground this year, if he survives let some sucker give him a king's ransom next year, if he breaks down - we'll have him for the next two years and we'll use him less so he'll last - even used for 20 to 25 starts a year he's worth 12 million. IF we are to compete in the AL East after 08 we'll NEED AJ or Purcey to become AJ-Lite. A real possibility. Purcey is the only possible ACE anywhere in our minors.
Santana or Lincecum would sure look good down the road. Sigh.
Purcey's name has been brought up here a few times as a possible starter for the Jays post-Burnett. I mentioned him as well. But is he still projected as a starter? What exactly was the injury he suffered and did it require surgery? I ask because I've recently read a couple of articles that suggested his future was likely as a reliever, not as a starter.
MyLegacy, is Purcey really the only guy in our system with "Ace" stuff? I don't get to see minor league games (though I'm really hoping the Chiefs move to Buffalo). I've heard that Cecil and Ginley both have front-of-the-rotation stuff, and that Romero has 3 or 4 above average pitches, which, as a lefty, could see him become a #2 starter, if not an "ace".
TimPetc... - the last Jay's minor league game I was to was in Medicine Hat in the year of our Lord 1673. On reflection it might have been a few years later than that.
As to Purcey being the "only (potential) ACE" in our system - that's my take drawn from my wasted life of spending several hours a day reading about our beloved Jays from every source in the civilized world and the Toronto Sun as well. Guys like Janssen, Marcum, Romero, Banks and Cecil are handy arms, indeed they can be nice complementary pieces on a contender but they are not the ACE 1 or 2 guys you need to dominate. Purcey - if he ever learns to throw the ball where he wants to throw it - has, like: Roy, AJ and McGowan - ACE STUFF.
Welcome to the Board, manner 84. Twins waxed the Bombers, IMHO.
China fan, I like Robinson Diaz starting by July, or even sooner, if necessary. No point in wearing him out in AAA when he'll be ready to go. Like Robinson Cano, Diaz is blessed with the Robinson Factor Mojo. Expect big things from this future All-Star. He's a huge upgrade on everything else (good catching is the scarcest commodity of all) .
As a hitter Diaz is a hacker, he rarely walks or strikes out. He is known as a bad ball hitter, his average is likely to drop in the major leagues as he sees fewer bad pitches, but how much it drops will be interesting.
Diaz's defense needs work, he has a very good arm and his ability to work with pitchers is improving, he needs to work on his receiving which is still behind. Diaz has always had a lot of confidence, over-confidence according to some, he might have to survive a settling in period in the big leagues.
Speaking of Diaz did any one notice that he has played one game of Dominican League Winter Ball and hasn't played since. I know he had hand surgery at the end of last season and the plan was to rehab in winter ball. Does any one have any info on this, is he hurt again?
Also seems like Thigpen has fallen in the depth charts? Curious if they're going to try and turn him into super utility player, third, first, second and left field?
