If his skills are still intact, Lofton would be a useful extra outfielder

I see Lofton's value as being the speed he is known to posess.  Although he had 23 last year, just a word of warning that he had just 3 SB's post all-star break.  The previous year he had 42 total and a much better 18 post all-star break so it does not appear to be an annual trend.  He is way up these in age,  I would be very careful here.

Ellsbury is not even on par with these guys - in 552 ABs last year between AA, AAA, and MLB, he hit five homeruns. He had most of the ABs (363) at AAA and his OPS there was 740. There is a reason this guy is not coming up at the top of prospect lists, and I hope the Twins don't see him and Lester as a some fantastic package.

Just throwing this out there: Considering the Jays probably need to be creative in any trade they make.  Would you do this?

Jays get: Bedard & Tejada from the O's

O's get Lincecum (or Cain) & SS prospect + from the Giants

Giants get Glaus & Lind + mid level pitching prospect from Jays.

I know it would probably have to be Rios instead of Lind, but I can dream can't I?

Alex Rios for Franklin Gutierrez and Cliff Lee?  No, thank you.
http://www.nypost.com/seven/12042007/sports/eyeing_as__os_100643.htm

Rios and McGowan for Bedard, a guy who is only controlled for two years and has never thrown 200 innings?  Uh, no.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/03/AR2007120302272.html

As for the talk of Cain and Lincecum, I really hope Ricciardi avoids Lincecum.  I expect a retort from Jdog, but personally I do not want a 5' 10", 155lb power pitcher with the Jays.  His arm is going to fall off.  Cain might not have Lincecum's stuff, but he's 6' 3", has pretty good form, has thrown 191 and 200 innings in his two years in the bigs and just turned 23.  If the Jays could get Cain for Glaus and pitching prospects or even Cain for Glaus and Lind, I'd take it.  The Reds want starting pitching for Encarnacion and I wonder if Burnett would do the trick.  When Burnett's healthy he should outperform Cain, but I'd rather have a durable guy go out there every fifth day and put up an ERA of 4.20 than a guy who post an ERA of 3.75 but misses 1 in 3 starts.

If Glaus, Lind (or prospects), and Burnett turned into Cain and Encarnacion (or La Roche, who I covet), I would be a happy fan.

I still think its rather silly your scared off my a guy being short, but I do agree with you about Lincecum, but it has more to do with his unusual mechanics. I think he is too big a risk. The more I think about trade possibilities the more I think the Jays should part with my favourite jay Alex Rios....IF they could get a Bedard, Tejada package for RIos and Burnett....I would do it. Then you have an extra LH bat in the lineup (Lind) and a huge upgrade at SS and someone who can be pencilled into the rotation.

It has been reported that he Orioles rejected an offer of Philip Humber, Aaron Heilman and Carlos Gomez for Bedard.  I think the Orioles are going to ask for the moon and I hope the Jays don't bite.
http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-sp.meetings04dec04,0,1351227.story?track=rss

Ken Rosenthal is reporting, on Fox Sports, about a possible trade between the Marlins and Tigers (Willis & Cabrera for A.Miller & Maybin, etc)

Tigers are serious players this hot stove season!

IF they could get a Bedard, Tejada package for RIos and Burnett....I would do it.

That may be a fairly even deal, in talent and contractual terms, but I just don't think it makes us any better.  I think there may be deals to be had that make us a better team - even small ones like Marcum and Thigpen for Jeff Clement or Tallet, Frasor and a B prospect for Josh Fields.

This is still a dull off-season. I'm sure every team in the league has inquired about Lincecum, Cain, Bedard, Bay, etc. The Blue Jays being interested doesn't mean it's going to happen or that it's even a realistic possibility, so I don't think there's anything to be excited about. Until a move of any significance actually happens, I'm going to expect Paul Bako (or someone equivalent) and maybe a Matt Clement type reclamation project, and that's about it.

As for trading Wells, he has a full no trade clause and his contract is heavily backloaded. Aside from that, trading him now coming off his worst season is rather pointless because the Jays would not only get little in return for him but would likely have to eat a good portion of his salary. It's better to just hold on to him for a few years and hope he's tradeable after the .900 OPS season that he seems to have every 3 years or so. Even then, the contract gives Vernon all the leverage (NTC + opt out clause), so he's not a guy I'd expect the Jays to move anytime soon, if ever.

Here is the latest from Ken Rosenthal:

The Blue Jays are willing to trade outfielder Alex Rios in a deal for a premium starting pitcher and have talked to the Giants about Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain. The Giants are reluctant to move either pitcher, but would consider a hitter such as Rios, who is three years away from free agency.

If the Jays traded Rios, they likely would go with Adam Lind in left field and a platoon of Reed Johnson and Matt Stairs in right. Some Jays officials believe that Lind would bat .270 with 20-25 home runs if he were given 500 at-bats.

The chances of the Jays trading for Orioles left-hander Erik Bedard, a native of Canada, are extremely remote. The Orioles are unlikely to trade Bedard within the division, and the Jays cannot offer a strong enough package of prospects for the pitcher.

The Jays also are listening to offers for right-hander A.J. Burnett, but ideally they would add a pitcher such as Cain or Lincecum to a rotation headed by Burnett and Roy Halladay.

Here is the latest from Jordan Bastian - "Rumours Flying around about Jays"

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071204&content_id=2317267&vkey=news_tor&fext=.jsp&c_id=tor

They are obviously looking to make a deal.  I am guessing we make a move but there is certain to be a lot of moving parts.  For instance if we obtain Cain I would guess management would first want to have a deal in place to move Burnett.  Maybe we could replace Rios with Cameron.  I like what they are doing - they know pitching is at a premium and even if it requires moving a budding star in Rios, they can later move a pitcher or two to obtain a bat or two (since the bats appear to come cheaper).

IF they could get a Bedard, Tejada package for RIos and Burnett....I would do it.

Rios and Burnett won't even bring Bedard, much less Bedard and Tejada. Burnett is not the kind of player the Os are seeking ... $13 million pitchers who are hurt all the time don't have any trade value.

If the Jays are indeed able to spend some money this offseason, trading Rios for a young SP and signing another RF would be a nice way of effectively spending money on pitching despite there not being an attractive FA.

That depends on how good they are - Burnett throws 98, strikes out a bunch, and keeps a good ERA. He has serious trade value.

Rios and Burnett won't even bring Bedard, much less Bedard and Tejada. Burnett is not the kind of player the Os are seeking ... $13 million pitchers who are hurt all the time don't have any trade value.

They'd be acquiring a lot less salary with Burnett's $12m than they'd be getting rid of with Tejada's $26m.  Further, Bedard is as oft-injured as Burnett.  So, combining the players, Rionett and Bedada are quite similar.  That said, I don't think it helps either team.

Rios and Burnett won't even bring Bedard, much less Bedard and Tejada. Burnett is not the kind of player the Os are seeking ... $13 million pitchers who are hurt all the time don't have any trade value.

I read a rumour in a Baltimore newspaper that stated that the Orioles are asking for Rios, Burnett AND McGowan , which is probably more realistic of what it would take

Breaking this down,

Rios>>>>Tejada  (no explanation necessary)

Burnett + McGowan >>>>>>Bedard  (two aces better than one - these 3 were 1-2-3 in OPS against last year)

Tigers acquire Miguel Cabrera for Maybin, Miller and four other prospects.

The Marlins are going to be amazing in a couple of years.

Yikes, we better call up Loria and help the Marlins cut payroll.

Oh well, next year Hanley will be "too expensive" for them.

Apparently the White Sox were offering up there last prospects for Cabrera as well - Fields, Danks and Gonzalez.  Maybe there'll be enquiries for Glaus now that the slugger options out there are limited.  The Sox, Dodgers and Angels might see Glaus as a better option at $12m and 3B than Andruw and his questionable millions.

If they were smart though, they'd realize their best option is right in front of there eyes - in Fields, Laroche and Wood.

<a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/mlb_experts/post/Buzz-from-the-winter-meetings?urn=mlb,56042"target="_blank">Hank Blalock</a> anyone? If we use Glaus for Cain/Lincecum deal, Blalock will be best option for 3B.

3Run, if your point is that Burnett is too risky to justify his salary, that's one thing.  But I don't at all agree that Rios, and Rios alone, would be an inadequate return for Bedard based on a talent/age/salary/health analysis.

I think that Blue Jay fans underestimate Bedard's trade value just because he's an Oriole (and Jays fans consider all Orioles bums). Bedard is expected to bring a Santana-like return to the Orioles. 11 teams are bidding for Bedard and the price is going to be multiple good players, not just one.

Tejada's a middle infielder with considerably more value than Rios. Rios and McGowan may or may not get you Tejada, but not Bedard.

I know a blog full of Orioles fans who'd jump at Tejada for Rios (many Os fans have an irrational dislike/hatred for Tejada). But  now that Cabrera is off the market, demand for Tejada as a 3B might climb.

If it doesn't cost us any pitching, I'm all for adding Cain or Lincecum, even if the cost is Rios. A five-man rotation of Halladay, Burnett, McGowan, Cain/Lincecum and Marcum is beyond ridiculous, and the bullpen is already pretty awesome. Our offense wouldn't have to be great to win with that pitching. As always, it would boil down to staying healthy, but if we're not going to spend with Boston and New York that's what it's ALWAYS going to come down to.

If the Jays keep and extend Rios, then having an outfield over the next several years of Snider-Wells-Rios could be equally ridiculous.

As for trading Glaus, I do believe he'll hit if he's healthy and he's a big part of the team in 2008.  However, it's quite possible he'll opt out after this year, along with Burnett.  If trading Glaus or Burnett now nets a SS, 3B, or SP that will be controlled by the Jays for multiple years, you'd have to give it strong consideration.  Perhaps the team would be slightly worse off in 2008, if say, Burnett was traded for Encarnacion and Glaus+ was traded for Cain, but imagine Santos and McDonald as the Jays' starting 3B and SS next year and a rotation minus Burnett but with no replacement.

... IF... Rios is traded, ( which is an interesting method of negotiating a long-term extension), couldn't those monie$ be directed toward Fukudome to lessen the loss that Rios would entail while at the same time increasing revenues via the Japanese fan base market ?

I'd be surprised to see the Jays land Lincecum or Cain. Sabean seems extremely reluctant to deal them, and according to the Jays website, JP is basically saying that they had some minor talks that never really evolved.

First, I think it should be assumed if the Jays make a deal with SF, it will be for Lincecum.  Every recent report that I have seen says so. 

Here is all you need to know from the latest MLB.com excerpt:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jspymd=20071204&content_id=2317548&vkey=hotstove2007&fext=.jsp&partnered=rss_mlb

Giants general manager Brian Sabean said Tuesday at baseball's Winter Meetings that he and his assistants were still considering the "interesting proposal" he cited Monday that would feature Lincecum. That deal is believed to be for Toronto outfielder Alex Rios, who is to the Blue Jays what Lincecum is to the Giants -- a potential cornerstone for the future.

Sabean acknowledged that the Giants talked with the Blue Jays on Monday and Tuesday, although he didn't reveal Toronto as the sole remaining possible trading partner involving Lincecum.   Addressing the deal in general terms, Sabean said, "There's really only one scenario which I spoke to yesterday which is intriguing. But not intriguing enough to pull the trigger. ... It's just one of the things we haven't shut off yet. There are some things we've shut off and some things we've kept alive. That's one that's still alive."

From the "Take it with a grian of salt" category...

I may be mistaken (and it may not matter, people have been known to lie on ocassion) but McPhail has said
A) They won't trade Bedard within the AL East
B) The Orioles are aiming at contending in 2010 and therefore are only seeking pre-arb players

Leads me to believe a Bedard trade with the Jays is unlikely, and a trade for Tejada involving Burnett similarly unlikely.

To restate the point, it's easier and safer to get position players from free agency since they age better and actually become free agents more often. BJ Ryan is an example of a guy who actually made it to free agency, but after seven years in the majors, his elbow ligament - err back - fell apart.

As an aside, it's a bit surprising Jeremy Accardo's name is not coming up in more trade discussions - he's a classic sell high guy right now. He is affordable, young, and his excellent season makes him a Proven Closer. Some teams pay big money for those.

Rios + Accardo ought to net us something good, and they both are relatively replaceable - more so than Burnett will be when he leaves next year.

I retract my last comment that said the Jays and SF are only discussing Lincecum not Cain.  This does not appear to be the case.  From http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/12/04/SPVKTOFV9.DTL:

"The Blue Jays want Cain for Rios, according to a high-ranking Toronto official, while the Giants seem more willing to part with Lincecum.....Toronto wants Cain instead of Lincecum because Lincecum isn't as proven as a big-leaguer and could have durability issues because of his slight frame and irregular mechanics. Conversely, Cain could evolve into a Curt Schilling type, a horse of a pitcher with an overpowering repertoire.  That could change. The teams were scheduled to talk again here. The Giants could sweeten a Lincecum package with other players or agree to surrender Cain....There was talk that the Blue Jays spoke with the Giants about Lincecum, offering Lind instead of Rios. The Blue Jays would probably need to offer more, but the Giants have no interest in taking on third baseman Troy Glaus."

^ ^ I really hope that is just a JP savvy negiotiation technique.  (However, I really doubt it).

The Giants want to do Rios for Lincecum, so JP asks for Cain who is more "valuable", offer less for Lincecum, and then later on they "settle" for Lincecum + prospect for Rios.  :)

This Lincecum/Cain for Rios deal seems to have evolved from speculation to serious business. I'd be thrilled getting either for Rios. As much as I like Alex, you don't get a chance at 23 year old potential aces who have major league experience.

Now Cain or Lincecum? I could careless. Although, I did vote for Lincecum in the poll.

Well I'm not sure about specifically 30-something pitchers and hitters
But I do know that most projection systems are far more accurate for hitters than pitchers...if that addresses your point at all

Hitters are, on the whole, safer investments

Who would the other prospect from the Giants be?
I don't know much about their system, but by all accounts the cupboard is pretty bare aside from Shierholtz

Anyone know anything about this Osiris Matos fellow?
He's got a kick-ass name

I think Accardo has more trade value by far

For what it's worth, here are the ZIPS projections for those 5 pitchers
IP - ERA - K/BB

Lincecum, 173IP - 3.28 - 173/67
Cain, 206IP - 3.68 - 173/76
McGowan, 161IP - 3.97 - 131/54
Marcum, 162IP - 4.67 - 121/43
Janssen, 80IP - 3.04 - 58/15

Janssen is of course projected as a reliever.  As a pitcher I think he'd be in Marcum's ballpark.  Just in my own opinion I'd rank them Cain/Lincecum...followed by McGowan...followed a bit further down by Marcum/Janssen

Cain will be 23 in 2008
Lincecum 24
The Jays all 26

Hypothetically, if all those pitchers pitched for the Jays next year I think Lincecum might give the least valuable performance (strictly for next year).  I just dont think he is quite major league ready, especially AL East ready.  The funny thing is, he could pull a Fransisco Liriano and go from looking completely inconsistant to dominant in the blink of an eye,  i just think he's a year away

So how do you rank these pitchers, in terms of value and potential wins, and also keeping in mind cost?

I would go: Cain, McGowan, Lincecum, Janssen, Marcum.

Cain has looked good two years in a row which is the main why I would rank him first.  Lincecum on the other hand is more comparable to Mcgowan  - I thik they are real close.  I am not as big a fan of Marcum as many others.  I ranked Janssen 4th but he was so dominant (and can hold runners) that I think he could easily be the 2nd best of the bunch come this time next year.   Also keep in mind that Cain and Linceum will both be 24 when the 2008 season starts.  McGowan Janssen, and Marcum will each be 26.  I would love to see the Jays move Marcum if they could get enough in return, otherwise I would say they should hold onto him and hope lightning strikes twice (just remember how we all felt about Marcum at the end of 2006). 

If they are able to land Cain or Lincecum, then I wonder if JP would be willing to move Marcum (he himself said he would like to see Janssen start and so would I).  Hallady, Cain, Burnett, McGowan, and Janssen looks pretty good to me.  That being said, in a perfect world I would like to see them do the following:

- Rios for Cain (or better yet Marcum and Lind for Lincecum), then

- Marcum and Burnett for Bedard

So how do you rank these pitchers, in terms of value and potential wins, and also keeping in mind cost: 

I rank:

Cain - 23, 96mph fastball, bigger than a house. Nice success so far for a kiddy. What's not to like.

McGowan - 26, if not for more health challenges than Michael Jackson has had face lifts - he'd already be a proven top 10 pitcher. Also has a 96 mph fastball and is bigger than an apartment building - also has "facial lamb chops" - if that sort of thing interests you.

Lincecum - 23, a Davis Romero clone ie 4' 6" tall weighing in at 122 pounds (sort of) - who, unlike Davis has the nastiest set of pitches this side of a healthy Pedro Martinez. He'll be fantastic till he breaks - then, can they repair him? Do they have the technology?

Marcum - 26, a control righty that can get lefties out. A rare commodity indeed.

Janssen - 26, similar to Marcum, slightly better stuff - BUT - Marcum HAS proved he can talk the talk and walk the walk. Janssen might get his chance to do so in 08. IF he produces as I think he will - he'll pass Marcum on this list. But that's as far as he'll go. However, that ain't half bad!

We need BOTH these guys: Ryan & Accardo. AND, Wolfe and League and Downs - we need all of them for sure - Our ONLY chance in the AL Killing Fields is if we have one AMAZING part to our game. AND, we do - it's our pitching, both starters and bullpen.

Rios should be a stud. But I've got me fears. I don't think he's tough enough. We COULD survive - with similar production if we had Lind, Wells and Johnson/Stairs. However, if we move him he'll probably get really pissed, get an edge and turn into King Kong.

Is anyone aware of another OF that would compare to Rios?  Someone who is a young budding star still 3 or more years away from having his salary skyrocket.  I ask because I wonder if another team is going to come along now that they know Cain is available and provide some stiff competition to Toronto's bid.

“I’m very pleased,” Steinbrenner said. “We got Andy Pettitte back, and everything I wanted to accomplish at the beginning of the off-season has happened. We got Pettitte, Rodriguez, Posada and Rivera back. We’ve got our young pitchers. I’m very glad we didn’t have to lose Hughes and Cabrera. Everything is copacetic.”

I'm a little bit shocked at how much he is talking to the media and how much he seems to be involved. It certainly is his damn team, but I somehow doubt he's the most qualified man for the GM job. I suppose the best thing for Toronto is continued intervention, since a difficult owner can lead to poor decisions and the Jays can beat the Yankees if they make poor decisions.

He's a different kind of player, but Brad Hawpe is sort of similar to Rios

Hawpe is two years older, but also has fewer seasons under his belt.
They both have had 2 years in a row of OPS+ 120 hitting
Rios is obviously better at defence

I don't think Colorado is in the market for Lincecum or Cain...but it's fun comparing what Rios has done the past 2 years to other players just for the hell of it

I would rather they not trade Rios, but maybe focus a deal around Lind/Glaus/Litsch for one of Cain or Lincecum. 

But, if JP is serious about trading Rios, then why not get into discussions with the Twins with regards to Santana.

Boston is offering Lester / Crisp / Lowrie / Masterson for Santana. 

We could offer Rios / McGowan and another top prospect and be equal or better to what the Bosox are offering.

Rios is a must more valuable asset than Crisp.

McGowan has better peripherals than Lester does.

We would now have to add a prospect that would match the ability of Lowrie and Masterson.  Or maybe a combination of Lind and one of Marcum/Janssen.

I just don't see the point of making a short term trade for one year of Santana and giving up two premium players in Rios and McGowan.  If the idea is to compete in 2008 then there isn't much point in adding a big pitcher but subtracting a potentially big pitcher as well as your best all around position player (who is a plus both offensively and defensively).  I'm shocked the Jays are trading Rios with their great need for improved offence but I've long since given up trying to figure out the end goal.

There's a reason the Red Sox don't want to give up Ellsbury and won't even DISCUSS Bucholtz in a Santana trade.  They're much more in a position to give up Bucholtz than the Jays would be to give up any good young player.  But they refuse to do so because they're only interested in maximizing their opportunity to win in 2008.  If the Jays can't maximize their opportunity to win, there's no point in making a trade.

The Mets already traded the player I liked best in Milledge.  But they can probably put together a deal that will interest the Jays.  I doubt it will be the value of Burnett.  But it seems the Jays will try to trade their best all around player in Rios for a starting pitcher and then I'm not sure what they'll do to address the fact that they're both weakening the run support their pitchers will get as well as the outfield defence SIGNIFICANTLY.  Lind, Wells, and a Johnson/Stairs platoon is very different from Wells, Rios, and a Johnson/Stairs platoon in right instead of left.  Any replacement outfielder you get outside of Cameron or Jones isn't going to be anywhere near Rios defensively.

The upshot is, the Jays seem destined to be forever stuck in this two steps forward, two steps back cycle every year.  The minor leagues aren't nearly enough to compensate for the attrition of talent to free agency and there is barely enough new/improved talent coming in to maintain the current 80-85 win level.  And yet this team is only going to continue to get more and more expensive.  There isn't nearly enough forward momentum in talent accumulation to catch up to the Yanks and Sox.

I like the idea of landing a young stud pitcher as Cain or Lincecum even at the loss of Rios. The loss of Rios certainly hurts the current lineup but what about going after signing Geoff Jenkins to take over in right.  Lefty Bat with some thump could fill some void in the offense while giving us another left handed bat in the lineup. Any thoughts?

I'm always a bit scared of trading an all-star position player for a young NL pitcher, regardless of that pitcher's upside. Rios is fairly established as an .850 OPS outfielder, and his prime years should yield better numbers than that. And it's not like he's nearing free agency either. He has three more years regardless of whether a long-term deal can be agreed upon. I just hope that IF that type of trade happens that the Jays are very careful in determining the health of Cain and especially Lincecum.

As for what the Jays would do to replace Rios on offense, it can't be done internally. Rios is the best offensive asset the team has at this point. He can hit 30 HR, bat .300, and I believe he was the only non-Stairs Jays player to have an .800 OPS against RHP last season. Lind has potential, but he's slow and may not be fully ready to hit everyday at the MLB level. The team's best bet might be to sign Andruw Jones to a $12-15 million per year contract if they trade Rios. Maybe trade Glaus to off-set the additional cost, but they simply cannot survive with Lind and Stairs/Johnson at the corners given the lack of stars at the other positions.

I don't expect a deal to get done, but I think it's safe to say it's in the "serious" stage of discussions right now. It's just a shame that after 6 drafts the most valuable assets on the team still have Gord Ash's fingerprints on them. The Jays should be keeping Rios and trading prospects for stars (ala Detroit), not the other way around.