WFAN (660AM) in New York is reporting that the Mets have traded Lastings Milledge to the Nationals for Brian Schneider and Ryan Church. 

Looks like Estrada will be non-tendered, after all.

I disagree Mike.  The Mets have been shopping Milledge for over two years, with no luck.  My take is that there are 30 scouting departments around the Majors (Mets included) that realize something baseball fans don't - Milledge isn't the prospect we thought he was.  He may be a solid OFer, but Church is that already (career 114 OPS+). 

Minaya exhausted his options with regard to moving Milledge and took the best deal available.  They have Gomez and Martinez behind Milledge who look like better prospects to me.

337 392 487   i guess only a 193 bats

This is a pretty sick line from a 20 yr old kid in AA (Eastern League). He seemed to hit for a decent average and good OBP throughout. Not sure why he doesn't get looked at as a better prospect around the GM table. But I do agree that GM's around baseball must see something they dont like, not sure if its a character or personality thing or just a hole in  his game not evidenced by the stats 

One way in that Minaya did screw up is that he needed to make a decision on Estrada by tomorrow, whereas teams shopping pitchers likely wanted to wait for the bidding to heat up next week.  He may well have gotten a better offer next week.

The Mets have been dangling Milledge forever, though.

ChrisTaylor,

I don't think it will happen, no.  However, I think it's a realistic possibility that the Jays could aquire a SS, and let's just say I wouldn't be surprised if I checked Rotoworld and saw that the Jays had moved pitching for a SS.  I wouldn't worry too much about Tejada's $13 million per year cost, since the Jays are probably going to clear $12 million from the budget next year (Burnett), and perhaps another $12 million (Glaus).  Also, both the Brewers and Indians are looking for a closer.  Accardo could be shopped as one, especially if Ryan looks to be ready by opening day.  The Indians have a spare SS, and the Brewers could probably be pursuaded to move Hall.  My interest in Tejada would be more as a 3B, post Glaus, since the free-agent SS crop looks deep for next year.

Dave, that's funny.  I was thinking the same thing.  It is a curious analogy as it evokes an image of JP trying to juggle a bunch of plates only to have them all eventually come crashing down. 

Hopefully, JP does better than that at the MW Meetings.

The more I read this:

"Our approach will be a little different in the sense that we're not going there sitting on a free agent or waiting on a free agent, but we are going there trying to be as aggressive as we can," Ricciardi said in an interview this week. "What this will allow us to do is really sit back and ask clubs point blank, 'What are you trying to do? Would you do this for this?' It gives us a chance to put as many plates in the air as possible."  

The happier I am. The team is basically set - however by seeing who is trying to move whom, JP has a chance to see if some GM out there might make a player available who can really help the team. He has some proven pitching he could deal and at least one outfielder. I expect nothing to get done - but I wouldn't be surprised if something did go down - maybe even a blockbuster. Years ago I never expected Fernandez and McGriff to be traded.

As to Tejada - I'm a big fan - but I don't think it's easy to trade within the division - I think he's a real long shot. 

Not a happy day for Mets fans, I wouldn't imagine.

I'm surprised that Beane didn't offer up anything better than Church + Schneider. He needs a CF, especially a RHB in his very LH lineup. Of course, Minaya likely holds Schneider in far too high an esteem, a trait you too often see when it comes to GMs and managers evaluating players they once had.

Whatever Milledge's baggage might be, can it be any worse than scripture-thumping, which the appropriately named Church is often guilty of? Church may outhit Milledge in 2008, but very unlikely thereafter. And if Milledge truly is a CF, he doesn't need to outhit Church to be the more valuable property.

"Our approach will be a little different in the sense that we're not going there sitting on a free agent or waiting on a free agent, but we are going there trying to be as aggressive as we can," Ricciardi said in an interview this week. "What this will allow us to do is really sit back and ask clubs point blank, 'What are you trying to do? Would you do this for this?' It gives us a chance to put as many plates in the air as possible."  

I case you haven't noticed I have been openly critical of JP so far this offseason, BUT I too am very pleased with this statement.  It has me excited again.  Who knew JP stood for Juggler of Plates!

His name is Mike Leiberthal.

I was actually thinking about him earlier today.  I think its a good fit.  At this point I think a one year deal in and around 1 million would do it.  I see a signing like this as similar to the Matt Stairs signing of a year ago. Simply put: it can't hurt.

Neither of these players has proven to be injury prone and they have a good established performance level. They both still have considerable upside as well. I would view a deal with either player as successful if JP gets at least one year of FA covered. This would mean at least four years for Rios and I believe five for Hill.

JP will be trying to sign Aaron Hill and Alex Rios to long term deals.

Once again, I'm excited.

Leiberthal, because he was playing behind one of the best, got 77 lousey AB last year - that SCREAMS sample-size-error.

I think the obvious upside to this as well for a 35 year old he had a nice little rest last season and potentially could be a decent offensive contributer again....maybe.

I'm curious - does anyone know if long term deals for young players always buy out some free agency years?

It's a matter of simple arithmetic. Super twos aside, a player has three years of no contract leverage, then three years where he is arbitration eligible, and then he's entitled to free agency.

When Hinske and Wells signed their five-year contracts after their rookie seasons, neither had any free agency years bought out, but they did have all their arbitration years bought out.

Breaking News from the NY Daily News.....

Yankees decide to offer Phil Hughes in package for Johan Santana

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/2007/11/30/2007-11-30_yankees_decide_to_offer_phil_hughes_in_p-2.html

I think that this will only push Boston to up their offer.  Though Boston clearly can do without Santana more so then NY, I would also assume that the Sox don't want to lose ground to the evil empire.  These two franchises are ruining the competitiveness of this great game.  Maybe they should open up their own league whereby they are the only two teams.  The fact that we still do not have a hard salary cap for this game makes me sick.

 Where are the Dodgers and Angles when you really need them?

 These two franchises are ruining the competitiveness of this great game.  Maybe they should open up their own league whereby they are the only two teams. 

Seriously.  it is a bit on the rediculous side.  You can't help but feel simpathy for the poor teams of the East that have to compete with that on a year to year basis.  At least put them in different devisions or better yet leagues.

The fact that both the Yankees and Red Sox are after Santana has its advantages.  They're in a bidding war right now which is going to force the team that eventually gets him to give up more young talent than if they were in it alone. 

 Where are the Dodgers and Angles when you really need them?

I think the Angels are out of this race, they already have the arms and the team to make a serious run, IMO.  As for the Dodgers, it looks as though they may be smart enough just to stay out of it.  Let the two powerhouses duke it out.

The fact that both the Yankees and Red Sox are after Santana has its advantages. 

again I agree.  I think one of those teams is going to pay though the nose, my best guess is that your going to see the yankees make the deal by giving up Cano, Hughes, and Cabrera.  Its way too much IMO, but I don't see them having much of a choice.  I can't see them offering less and hoping they are still ahead of the Sox. The Yanks are going to get screwed on this deal, and I can't help but like it.  My opinion.

Exactly.  The Jays have had much success against Santana.   2 -4 with an ERA just shy of 5 if I'm not mistaken.  And Santana's worst career outing was last July when he gave up 4 HR in 4 innings, it was an exciting game to see live to say the least.

my best guess is that your going to see the yankees make the deal by giving up Cano, Hughes, and Cabrera

If that were the case, I too would be happy.  There is no way that I see them including Hughes and Cano.  If that did, they would already have Santana and a Yankees nation up in arms with disbelief and grief.

There is no way that I see them including Hughes and Cano

I don't think it is out of the question, your talking about perhaps the best pitcher in baseball.  To give up a excellent 2nd baseman, a top prospect and a CF( maybe equal to a Coco Crsip, IMO) I don't think that is a stretch considering their backs are against the wall

Blair's latest blog entry is up, featuring this little gem of information:

MacLeod and I are off to the winter meetings on Sunday, and I'm hearing a few whispers that the Blue Jays may not be as much of a benign factor as general manager J.P. Ricciardi is letting on. Several sources say they were a factor in Troy Percival talks before he signed with the Devil Rays....

I wonder if the interest in Percival was due in part to third party interest in Accardo?

If Sanatana is going to end up in New York, I'd far rather see the Yankees trade Hughes for him than to see them sign him as a free agent after the 2008 season.

Agreed. If one accepts that NY would have been Santana's likeliest FA destination and one allows for a little hyperbole, the Yankees could be trading away the balance of Hughes' and Cabrera's careers for one extra season, namely 2007, of Santana.

The Twins are highly motivated, I would think, to take the swank allegedly being offered for Santana (rather than the draft choices were he to leave as a FA), so it would appear that Santana is going somewhere. But Santana would basically have to consent to treating this off-season as his pseudo-FA period, agree to a trade in the first place and agree to an extension that would, in a roundabout way, also bump this year's salary as well to make it FA'ish. If he has decided that NY's the place he's headed eventually anyway, he'd likely consent to the trade+extension. If he really want to test the post-2008 FA waters, he may force the Twins to keep him for 2007.

Me-thinks that if the Spankies get Santana - Pettitte decides to play another year for a shot at the bling. So we have Santana, Pettitte, Wang, Joba and Kennedy. The only good news there is that Joba and Kennedy shouldn't be able to pitch over 150 - 170 innings. BUT, till they get to that level, yikes.

However, I was thinking if they don't get Santana they get Haren - sigh.

It makes me think the Jay's are one wish being granted from the Tooth Fairy away from a real shot - and - that wish (which must be granted) is - Troy Glaus plays pain free all year. Glaus, cured by the power of the Dental Princess, Wells, now recovered - Overbay, now recovered, Thomas, now fully recovered, Zaun, now recovered, Rios, now getting to the next level, Hill, now getting to the next level, Sparky, now recovered - or Lind, now blowing the Sparkster out of the water.

Maybe I could get Yoda to let, "the force be with us."

I think it is quite astounding how similar the current situation is for the Twins compared to when they traded Frank Viola to the Mets on July 31, 1989. 

Viola turned 29 in April of that year, while Johan turns 29 in March.  Both are lefties and both had won the Cy Young award shortly before being shopped around.  Viola won his after going 24-7 in 1988 and went on to sign a three deal with Minnesota for $7.9 million, which at the time was a very lucrative deal.  Santana has thus far won two Cy Young awards – 2004 and 2006. 

Question: So what did the Twins get for Viola (without reading on can you honestly remember)?

Answer: Rick Aguilera, Kevin Tapani, David West, and two minor league pitchers.

That’s quite a hall – even Aguilera alone (age 27at the time) turned out to make the deal a win for the Twins.  Up to that point Rick had appeared in 114 games for the NY Mets and had registered just 7 saves.  He went on to pitch 6 full seasons for the Twins and registered 184 saves.  After spending half a year with Boston, he came back in 1996 and spent another three and a half seasons in Minnesota, the last two and a half of which he was put back in the stoppers role where he racked up another 70 saves.  That’s over 250 saves for the franchise!

Tapani (age 24 at the time) spent 6 seasons with Minnesota where he started 181 games and went 75-63 with an era of 4.06 – at best considered average in that era but still pretty serviceable. 

The two minor league pitchers never made contributions worth considering here, while the 5th player – David West was relegated to long relief after floundering as a starter.

Question: So what return for Santana would be comparable to getting Aguilera and Tapani for Viola?

Answer: Well from a Yankee trade Perspective, if Hughes plays as many years and as an important a role as Aguilera did I will be surprised.  But if he does, then I think we can assume M.Cabrera can provide the same value as a hitter that Tapani brought as a pitcher. 

From a Red Sox trade perspective, I think Buckholtz and Lester are less proven than Hughes, though both are possible bets to make it big.  However, I also think they are more likely than Hughes to be just solid but not spectacular – possibly similar to what Tapani provided the Twins.  At this point in their careers, I think it is fair to say that they should be valued less than Aguilera (and therefore less than Hughes as well) but more than Tapani.  This means the Twins need to get a second player from Boston worth more than Cabrera.  I think Ellsbury would fit the bill.  Boston is not going to do that and on top of this NY is expected to add a third solid player. 

In conclusion, I think the Yankees reported offer of Hughes, Cabrera, and one of Tabata or A.Jackson is at least equal to (actually in my eyes more valuable than) what Minnesota got for Viola.  I do not think the Red Sox have made a comparable offer to what the Twins received for Viola – who at the time should be considered a lesser pitcher than Santana is today.

Any thoughts?

I should have provided stats in my post above:

Last 4 seasons prior to trade:

J.Santana: 134 GM's, 70W-32L, 912IP, 983K, 2.89 ERA, 0.99 WHIP

Viola: 132 GM's, 65W-42L, 929IP, 719K, 3.42ERA, 1.23 WHIP 

Career:

J.Santana: 251 GM's, 93W-44L, 1308IP, 1381K, 3.22 ERA, 1,09 WHIP

Carrer (up to point of 1989 trade)

Viola: 260 GM's, 112W-93L, 1773IP, 1214K, 3.86 ERA, 1.29 WHIP

So indeed, the haul that Minnesota should expect based on talent alone, should be higher than what they got for Viola (if you are interested, see my recent posting in this thread for details of what they got).  However, Viola was not a pending free agent, having just signed a three year deal 6 months prior to being traded.  Santana of course will be a free agent next season, though I would have to agree that any team trading will want to negotiate first.  Add in that Santana will cost a lot more dough relative in today's market than Viola did in his, and this brings their perceived values a bit closer to one another I think.  Therefore, I still think that the points I made in my earlier posting above about what Minnesota should expect for Santana are vailid.

From Rotoworld....

The Minneapolis Star Tribune's Lavelle E. Neal III believes the Yankees are now offering Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and Ian Kennedy in return for Johan Santana.
He also says the Twins are no longer interested in a Red Sox package that includes Coco Crisp rather than Jacoby Ellsbury. If both of his beliefs are true, then it would seem as though the a trade between the Twins and Yankees would get done any day now. However, Neal goes on to say that he thinks the Mets are backing down on not offering Jose Reyes and that Santana might prefer the NL to the AL. Color us skeptical about all of it.

Oh, how I hope this Reyes rumour is true!

I wonder if one of the plates JP is spinning has the White Sox and their desire for a bullpen on it.  I remember Guillen complaining after one defeat to the Jays this year that if he had our bullpen, they wouldn't have lost.

Maybe a couple of arms (Tallet and Frasor) plus Reed for Josh Fields.  Josh played 24 games in LF last year in addition to being a good looking 3B prospect.  Serve that one up please, JP.

Add in that Santana will cost a lot more dough relative in today's market than Viola did in his, and this brings their perceived values a bit closer to one another I think.

Something you'll want to further add to the mix is consideration of the different offensive climate in which each pitcher played. Here is a contrast of Santana's and Viola's ERA+ for the four seasons you discuss:

Santana 182, 155, 161, 130 (career: 141)
Viola 106, 95, 159, 153, 110 for MIN in year he was traded (career : 112)

It's worth noting that Viola's 112 is not coloured by a decline phase. Injuries kept him from pitching altogether, rather than ending his career by pitching poorly (save for some 40 odd innings).

What you have here are a Hall of Fame pitcher and Hall of Pretty Good pitcher.

The other move I'd love to see this offseason is Eric Chavez for Troy Glaus.  The two are similar in a few ways - contract, nagging injuries - but the Jays are very righthanded offensively and the A's are very left-handed.  Troy may also opt out next year, which would be attractive to the A's (salary and draft picks).  The Jays are on Chavez' no-trade list, along with seven other teams (including the Expos), but he recently told management he'd waive it if it was in the team's interest.

I don't prefer Eric over Troy offensively, except that he hits from the port side and we need to break up Vernon-Alex-Troy-Frank-Aaron.

ayjackson,

how about Glaus for La Roche?  The Dodgers will need a bat if they lose out on Cabrera.  Sure La Roche is another right-handed hitter, but he'll have a little more speed, he'll free up money to go after a SS (if money really is an issue), he's a pretty safe bet not to get suspended or injured, and he'll man the hot corner until the Jays' 17 and 18 year old 3B prospects are ready.  La Roche gets on base and his doubles power will continue to turn into homerun power as he matures.  He'd be a nice fit in the lineup right now and should only improve.

If there's any truth to the report that the Yankees are offering up Kennedy, Cabrera AND Hughes

I don't perceive this as a better offer than Tabata, Cabrera and Hughes.  Kennedy isn't in the same league as Hughes, Buchholz, Chamberline and Lester.  Liriano, Bonser, Slowey, Baker, Swarzak and Perkins may be better pitchers than Kennedy.  If I'm the twinkies, I'll take a high-ceiling bat before I take Kennedy.

The tax is applied only on dollars spent above the threshold. The Yankees and Red Sox, after each exceeding the threshold three or more times, pay the maximum rate of 40 percent.

Thus, Rodriguez's true price if the Yankees continue to get penalized will be $38.5 million per season, not $27.5 million. Rivera will cost $21 million per season instead of $15 million; Posada $18.34 million instead of $13 million.

Yikes.

I still like Wilkerson and believe his is capable of .250/.360/.470 line.  But unless they deal Lind, I don't see it happening.  Even then, I think they'd want their fifth outfielder to have infield capabilities, like Mackowiak or Adams.

On another topic, the Padres keep insisting they'll offer Barrett arbitration, as the Jays do with Towers.  I can't help but think that neither will follow through and Towers will sign with SD and Barrett will sign with the Jays.

I can't help but think that neither will follow through and Towers will sign with SD and Barrett will sign with the Jays.

Upon reflection, I can't help but think I should've checked Rotoworld prior to posting.  Barrett's been offered arbitration.

Would Mike Piazza's "I'm not gay" press conference still be better? Perhaps. If anyone is interested in revisiting that curious episode, here is a Sports Illustrated article that reads like an Onion one.

Gotta love the photo of him they chose with the "one hand on the hip" pose.

I don't understand the Jays' seeming reluctance to use Thigpen.

I think it's quite straightforward, whether you agree with it or not.  Thigpen has only 260 career PAs at AAA.  They feel he'd make an easier adjustment to the Bigs with another 300-350 PAs at AAA first.  The option is have him play versus lefties only for about 150 PAs with the Jays.  The Jays prefer the former.

How about Raul Casanova. I saw him play a few times last year and he has a really decent arm. He is one of the few catchers out there who can hit right handed pitching.

Q: The Mitchell report is expected to be released this month. Do players discuss it and wonder what's going to be in the report?

A: No, not at all. I think that all of us are tired of the whole ordeal of it. We don't really pay a whole lot of attention. We in major league baseball have done what we feel like we need to do.

Perhaps I'm reading too much into it, but I was a bit surprised by the phrasing there.

According to the Houston Chronicle, it appears Pettite will be back with NY next year.  As a Jays fan, should I be happy or sad?

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5347088.html

I don't see any reason to conclude that.

The Jays are definitely better against left-handed pitching than right-handed pitching, but they were especially bad against right-handers last year.  If the team is healthy and the players return to the most likely of their career (c) norms, or their 2007 (7) numbers, they should be fine against righties, if not great.  I don't expect to see another .715 OPS against righties.  In fact, seven of the nine starters have an above average OPS against righties for their careers.

(I apologize for the format, I pasted it from Word)

LINEUP vs. LHP

(Includes splits)
Player            Position                 Bats        AVG       OBP       SLG        OPS

1. Johnson                             LF                           R             .308         .371         .462         .833    ©

2. Rios                                    RF                           R             .345         .422         .473         1.022 (7)

3. Wells                                  CF                           R             .319         .376         .528         .904    ©

4. Thomas                              DH                          R             .336         .431         .631         1.062 (7)

5. Glaus                                  3B                           R             .286         .407         .578         .985    ©

6. Hill                                      2B                           R             .305         .364         .463         .827    ©

7. Overbay                             1B                           L              .285         .322         .449         .771    ©
8. Zaun                                   C                             S              .246         .338         .389         .726    ©

9. McDonald                          SS                           R             .257         .306         .339         .645    ©
                       LINEUP vs. RHP

(Includes splits)
Player           Position                 Bats        AVG       OBP       SLG        OPS

1. Rios                                    RF                           R             .283         .334         .445         .802   (7)

2. Wells                                  CF                           R             .269         .315         .462         .777    ©

3. Overbay                             1B                           L              .283         .376         .455         .831    ©

4. Thomas                              DH                          R             .259         .360         .480         .796   (7)

5. Glaus                                  3B                           R             .244         .341         .475         .816    ©

6. Stairs                                  LF                           L              .273         .365         .502         .867    ©

7. Hill                                      2B                           R             .281         .332         .397         .729    ©

8. Zaun                                   C                             S              .274         .366         .388         .755    ©

9. McDonald                          SS                           R             .232         .266         .305         .571    ©

You might as well call me NostradamLS because this is Exactly what I predicted would happen last season with regards to RH/LH hitters.  And Glaus has had downright poor platoon splits the last 2 seasons.  What makes you think this will turn around?

This lineup could be average vs. RHP, but great?  Not a chance.

The Twins are apparently displeased with Hanky-the-Yankee.

It has been suggested that if Boston got Santana, it would be better for the Jays and anybody seeking a WC berth in the playoffs, but that if he went to the Yankees, that would probably put both the division and WC out of reach.  Do you think the Twins believe this as well and would prefer to make the best team in the AL East better, rather than the second best team?

Do you think the Twins believe this as well and would prefer to make the best team in the AL East better, rather than the second best team?

Yes I do agree - great point.  However, I think this will only be the difference maker if the two offers are even. 

If there's any truth to the rumour that the Orioles want Jered Weaver and Brandon Wood in a trade for Miguel Tejada, then I hope the Jays stay well clear of him.  The Orioles are asking for WAY too much, especially if they're not planning on picking up any of the tab.

http://www.latimes.com/sports/baseball/mlb/angels/la-sp-angels3dec03,1,5544411.story?track=rss&ctrack=1&cset=true

Marc Hulet has just produced an amazing set of 160 Jay's System, player by player bios, over at bluejayway.ca . I highly, highly recommend it. Marc does exceptional work.

Also, Dave Rouleau has some excelent stuff up at bluejays.scout.com. This is a pay site, to which I subscribe and recommend, but the site is having a "free" preview at the moment.

What are people's thoughts on a Johnson for Laird swap?

We get a good 2nd catcher and Texas gets a centerfielder.. it almost makes too much sense.

I like it for the Jays. But my thoughts are there is no obvious reason that Texas would/should make that trade. Reed is no longer young, not especially cheap, and last years' stats were not good. Laird had a poor year at the plate last year too, but he is 3 years younger, plays a premium position and also costs about 10-15% of what Reed does. At his current value, Reed Johnson is not worth much more than a replacement-level corner outfielder. I am not sure he's a center fielder.