Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Matt Stairs Resigns with Toronto

It was reported earlier this afternoon that Matt Stairs signed a 2-year, $3.5 million contract with the Blue Jays. Time to deal with some of the questions arising from this news.

I'm relatively happy with this news. I like Stairs, both as a person and as a ballplayer. I like what he brings to the table offensively, even if we can't expect a repeat of 2007, and I like what he brings as a clubhouse leader and motivator. Anybody who witnessed him during the A-Rod incident can see how much he cares for his teammates. He's a straight talker, a fun-loving guy and watching him during this summer, when he was on that great hot streak, was one of the high points of the season. I read a couple of articles on his leadership of the Canadian team at the World Baseball Classic and to see him as part of that team in red celebrating a victory of the US was a highlight of 2006.

The money is reasonable. I expected him to get about $4 million over 2 years and he's making just under that, although he's got a $1.25 million signing bonus. This amount of money is small enough that the Jays can cut bait Stairs should something unforeseen happen and the amount is small enough that even if he's overpaid compared to his production, it won't be by very much.

The biggest issue with this resigning is how it affects the roster construction. With Stairs back in the fold it seems unlikely that the Jays will carry both Johnson and Lind. Do the Jays send Lind back to Triple-A? Does he need more seasoning? Do you give Reed a mulligan on last year and go into this year with him and Stairs platooning in left? Do you give Reed one last year before giving Lind the job in 2009? Should the Jays save money and cut bait on Johnson and try to find another left-fielder on the free agent market? An even bigger question, has Lind lost his shine, as Nate Silver seems to believe when he says, that Lind is a "sunken prospect" who will "[battle] to be league-average"? Does the signing of Stairs indicate that perhaps JP is no longer as confident in Lind's ability as he used to be?

Bauxites, time to weigh in on the Matt Stairs signing, what it means for Lind and how to deal with left field.

Posted by Thomas on Friday, November 02 2007 @ 03:36 PM EDT.

Matt Stairs Resigns with Toronto | 75 comments | Create New Account

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CaramonLS - Friday, November 02 2007 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#175764) #

I don't know if Lind will turn out to be "league average", but I think vs. RHP he could eventually hit something like an .850-900 OPS vs. Right handed pitching, making him the perfect candidate to be platooned in the OF or at 1B, aka Matt Stairs jr for his career. Which, I'm not sure if you've looked lately, but the Jays could sure as heck use a couple of those coming up.

The news? Love it. A combination Stairs/Johnson Platoon is the rough equivilent of a superstar Outfielder - really, you couldn't expect any more production, unless you're paying a single player 10-15 million per year, and even then you might not get that see: Abreu, Sheffield, Matsui, Rameriz. That platoon out hit those 4 just off the top of my head, and for a fraction of the price. It shocks me that strict platoons aren't used more often, it's cheaper, more effective and you can take advantage of splits... What more could you want?

Mylegacy - Friday, November 02 2007 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#175765) #

On Lind, too often we think the "growth" from prospect to star is a steady climb. It isn't. Lind will be a well above aveage hitter both for average and power. The longer he spends in AAA until he fully blossoms the longer we get to keep him at a reasonable salary.

We have NO lead-off guy. I say Lind and Johnson split LF... IF... Lind is showing POWER this spring, if not he goes back to AAA and Stairs splits with Reed. If Lind is up then Stairs fills in as necessary at LF (occassionally) and at 1st...however...I'd REALLY like to see him platoon with Thomas UNLESS Frank blows him out of the equation. That would be GREAT as we'd have an exceptional LF'd bat to bring in and pitch hit from time to time.

Our 08 success will depend mostly on how we perform offensively. Our pitching iin 08 will be near to being a thing of beauty.

davidcanavan - Friday, November 02 2007 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#175766) #

I love the signing, at a great price too. We all know that the jays need a left-handed power bat coming off the bench, and even if stairs falls of dramatically this year to a line of 250/320/450 or somewhere around there, that is still great production for a guy making 1.5 million a season. It would have been really tough to find another free agent utility man who can put up those numbers at such a low cost. Not to mention he is a fan favourite and the Jays need all the fans they can get right now.

paulf - Friday, November 02 2007 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#175767) #

If Lind does indeed take a step forward and at least hit righties reasonably well, a Stairs/Thomas platoon at DH would be a pretty lethal option. Stairs out-OPS'd Thomas vs right-handers by 136 points, nearly all of it due to slugging. Would they do it? I highly doubt it. "Benching" Thomas wouldn't look very good, especially if it keeps him from the ~360 PAs he needs to vest the '09 option.

Pistol - Friday, November 02 2007 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#175768) #

If I were a team that needed an OF and saw this I'd be making inquiries about Adam Lind. Right now the only way he's on the Jays next season is if there's an injury.

Pistol - Friday, November 02 2007 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#175769) #

For what it's worth, the linked article mentions that he'll split time with Lind and not Johnson in LF.

Perhaps the Jays are going to non-tender Johnson. It sounded like that was up in the air at the end of the season.

Two years is one too many, but if it was a 1 year, $3.5 million contract I wouldn't have thought too much of it.

scottt - Friday, November 02 2007 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#175771) #

If the team is healthy--which we can't really take for granted at this point--Stairs provides a much needed bat off the bench.

Basically, he's backing off 5 positions: OF+1B+DH.

Also, he can platoon LF, but I can't see him taking many starts at 1B or DH unless Thomas and Overbay need a rest.

It should be easy to give him at least one AB each game even if he doesn't take the field.

That leaves just 2 positions to fill: Back up catcher and super-utility. If should be easy if the Jays don't mind overpaying a little.

Last year the Jays had Clayton and Jason Smith, so there's still one spot left on the bench but it might go to an infielder.

Chuck - Friday, November 02 2007 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#175772) #

For what it's worth, the linked article mentions that he'll split time with Lind and not Johnson in LF.

Except the linked article was written by a moron, so it isn't worth spit. Stairs sharing time in LF with Lind or at 1B with Overbay doesn't make sense. Why have two LHB's job share a position?

Seamus - Friday, November 02 2007 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#175773) #

I think this is a good signing...

Worst case scenario? Stairs is awful, the Jays cut him and lose $3.5 million.

That's not really that bad. They were paying more than that to have Hinske and Koskie not play for them.

The signing has a lot of upside, and not really much downside at all.

I thought Stairs would cost much more than this.

ayjackson - Friday, November 02 2007 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#175774) #

Actually I think two years is key. Thomas is very likely to see his option vest to year 3, so a 2009 Stairs/Thomas platoon at DH might be the best way to mitigate aging production from the two sluggers.

I'm really curious to see how this plays out for Lind. If he starts at AAA and tears it up down there, how long do they keep him there, especially if Stairs is continuing his 130 OPS+ thing versus righties with the big club.

Mylegacy - Friday, November 02 2007 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#175775) #

If LF is a Johnson/Lind split then I would extend Thomas' option NOW and have Stairs/Thomas platoon at DH for 08 and 09. That way Thomas would stay "respected."

Johnson is the key. They don't want to pay him 4+ large. I don't think they've got a choice. We're going to need every single ounce of offense we can get and this lefty/righty platoon in LF would go a long way to achieving it.

westcoast dude - Friday, November 02 2007 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#175776) #

Lind will be ready, and close behind him rumbles the volcanic Travis Snider. Sorry, Reed Johnson, but the team needs sluggers in LF.

Flex - Friday, November 02 2007 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#175777) #

On SI.com Bill James has come out with a Young Talent inventory in which he lists the top 50 young talents of the generation. Prince Fielder is number 1, and Tulowitzki comes in 12th (coulda, shoulda) but the Jays do okay with two representatives. Alex Rios at 30 � ranked ahead of Robinson Cano and Carl Crawford � and Jeremy Accardo, ahead of Jeff Francis.

Greg - Friday, November 02 2007 @ 06:47 PM EDT (#175778) #

James also ranks all the teams by their young talent quotient

The Jays come in at 10th

ANationalAcrobat - Friday, November 02 2007 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#175779) #

Two years is one too many, but if it was a 1 year, $3.5 million contract I wouldn't have thought too much of it.

This is what I was thinking as well.

R Billie - Friday, November 02 2007 @ 06:58 PM EDT (#175780) #

I don't think Nate Silver is calling Lind a sunken prospect in the sense that he has no hope. I think what he's saying is if they spend money to improve 1B (Overbay was not good) or LF (Johnson and Lind were not good) then the Jays would effectively be blocking Overbay and Lind and the assumption is their trade value wouldn't be much after the years they had making them sunk costs.

I think it's clear the Jays will hope for a rebound from Overbay to the .800+ ops level. That's a big if should his hand/wrist not be able to get back to pre-injury form. But their assumption appears to be that Overbay will be much better and I'm not sure that they have much of a choice but to hope that with the contract he's signed.

Left field is a bit murkier. The surest thing performance wise for 2008 seems to be a platoon of Stairs and Johnson. You've got Stairs at under $2M per and it's a question of what you'll have to pay Johnson to get him to stick around and whether he'll accept a platoon role again. Together they promise to be as productive or more so than the Cat/Johnson pairing of 2003-2006. To me this makes more sense than spending big on a free agent left fielder.

If Johnson isn't back, you look for a righthanded outfielder who can share with Stairs.

As for Lind, he is no sunk prospect. I think trading him now would be a really bad idea unless he was standing in the way of getting someone really good (Bedard?). He will be a star major league hitter as soon as he stops swinging at everything thrown up to the plate, especially above belt level and/or inside. If he swings only at strikes and hits the way he hits in the minors, the Jays have Frank Catalanatto with consistent 20-30 homerun power.

I don't have a big problem with him starting at AAA in 2008 if it's in favour of an experienced and capable platoon in left. Unless they block him with a long term contract to a very good player in which case you hold onto him and hope he builds up value as a AAA star and include him in a trade (though you still probably don't get what he's really worth).

FanfromTheIsland - Friday, November 02 2007 @ 07:18 PM EDT (#175781) #

Wow, I haven't posted in a while. The Leafs and Raptors have gotten to my head, unfortunately.

Anyway, great news. Stairs was an awesome bench bat last season, hopefully he can do it again.

As for Lind, I think he should go to AAA, own the pitching there and get his confidence back (after losing quite a bit last season) before being called back up. Sorry to anyone who may have already posted something similar to this.

Mylegacy - Friday, November 02 2007 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#175782) #

The Globe and Mail had a Canadian Press article that included the following:

"He'll (Stairs) make $2.25 million in 2008 and $1 million in 2009, when he's expected to become a role player and Adam Lind is projected to take over left field.

"Matt knows he's going play, probably the same amount of at-bats he had this year, which would be great for us," said Ricciardi. "We want to have the same kind of guy back and probably not give him more at-bats.

"I think right around 250 to 350, 400, 450 tops, with him and Reed out there I think we're pretty solid."

Ricciardi said Johnson, who is eligible for arbitration, would likely get most of the at-bats in left field with Stairs filling in against tougher right-handers.

He also provides insurance should something happen to first baseman Lyle Overbay or designated hitter Frank Thomas."

WELL... looks like the team IS going to keep Reed! We've got a lead-off man after all.

R Billie - Friday, November 02 2007 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#175785) #

We've got a lead off man but the question is how much he's going to cost. And would he be worth that cost if he plays against a lot of RHP and puts up weak stats against them again. If Johnson plays most of the time that means he'll be facing a lot of RHP...I don't know how they'll determine who he plays against and who he doesn't play against.

It's not going to take much to improve the left field offence from the first half of 2007. But hopefully it will improve to really good and not just passable.

CaramonLS - Friday, November 02 2007 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#175786) #

If LF is a Johnson/Lind split then I would extend Thomas' option NOW and have Stairs/Thomas platoon at DH for 08 and 09. That way Thomas would stay "respected."

If you wanted to maximize the offensive output of this club, Platooning Lind/Thomas would have a minimal effect... If Vernon plays like he did last year (or even slightly worse than career norms), A Stairs/Rios/Lind OF would be your best offensive output vs. Righties. Scary to think we'd have to do that to our "franchise player".

John Northey - Friday, November 02 2007 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#175787) #

Hmmm... so Stairs/Johnson with Lind having to force the issue to get playing time. Good idea at the likely cost.

Johnson made $3.1 million last year hitting 236/305/320 in 79 games. Odds are good he'll have to accept pretty much whatever the Jays offer, even if it is a 20% pay cut ($2.5 million) as I cannot see an arbitrator giving him anything much. I suspect the Jays will offer him $3.25 though just to be safe in arbitration and to keep Johnson's ego in place.

So a platoon for $5.5 million which hits (last year, who, career)...
vs RHP: 288/364/567 (Stairs) 273/365/502
vs LHP: 325/381/532 (Johnson) 308/371/462

Not bad at all. Poor defense with Stairs, but solid with Johnson. This is livable.

Now if only they would spend a bit of cash on...

ANationalAcrobat - Friday, November 02 2007 @ 10:13 PM EDT (#175788) #

This would indeed work. In fact, this is how 2006 started, only instead of Stairs, it was Catalanotto. I really like the idea of platoons since they
1. provide depth (if one player under performs or is hurt, we have a second starter),
2. provide competition, which can lead to better performance (Rios/Hinske, Reed/Cat), and
3. they keep both players fresh.
Evidently a platoon uses up a bench spot, however in this case both players can play multiple positions.

In the event that Lind does tear it up in AAA, he can certainly start stealing ABs from Stairs, Reed, Wells, Overbay, and Thomas, depending on who is slumping/hurt or by simply giving them a day of rest each week.

I think it is a great idea to have too many players for your positions for the reasons outlined above, and it was one of the strengths of the '06 squad.

Lefty - Friday, November 02 2007 @ 10:31 PM EDT (#175789) #

Stupid, fat and slow is no way through life son.

Ok I ripped that line off and may have embellished it a bit.

None-the-less I don't like the signing.

Not that Matt Stairs is going to be the worst offensive player on the team or even the worst defensive player. The guy aquitted himself well on both counts last season. Just a flat out good season with the bat and glove.

And Matt Stairs was almost the heart of a near heartless team last season. Hell, he was a lion.

There was a lot of skeptisism about his signing last season, and I think for good reason. If I was a fantasy player I'm rating him to go higher than he'll be worth.

But mostly, this move indicates to me that it is unlikely that Ricciardi will actually come out of the weeds and really do something to improve the team. And I really don't like the arguement that he's so cheap that if he flops it won't cost a kings ransom. If he flops free agent and likely trade options will be long gone.

Since he is signed though, he will be pretty near may favorite Jay to pull for during 08.

ANationalAcrobat - Friday, November 02 2007 @ 10:33 PM EDT (#175790) #

I forgot to mention Molina/Zaun in the '06 platoons. Think about this:

Rios '06, pre-ASB (only counting pre-ASB because of the injury): 968 OPS after having posted a 721 OPS in '04 and a 703 OPS in '05.
Hinske '06 with Toronto: 866 OPS, after having gone 846, 766, 687, 763 from '02 to '05.
Reed Johnson: 869 OPS (with 390 OBP) after having gone 780, 700, 744 from '03 to '05.
Gregg Zaun: 832 OPS, with a career OPS of 732.
Benjie Molina: 786 OPS, with a career OPS of 720.
Frank Catalanotto ended up right in line with his career norms.

So one guy exploded, elevating his game to levels we had dreamed of. Hinske provided the best offense of his career. Reed had a ridiculous year. Zaun had an excellent year at the age of 35. Benjie had a good year. Catalanotto did what was expected of him. Not one player fell of the table in terms of performance, and 4 out of 6 elevated their game.

Bring on the platoons!

Jimbag - Friday, November 02 2007 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#175791) #

The money isn't significant enough to pose a problem even if Stairs washes out for the next two years...and having him around as a respected vet and "clubhouse leader" (without being in the clubhouse, who really knows?) will be valuable in and of itself.

As for LInd..he's been a little enigmatic in his brief opportunities with the Jays. First he was lights out at the plate and ulcer-inducing in the field...then he improved his defense and forgot how to hit. He's got skills, no question...and he seems to have the desire and ambition (he didn't fluke his way into improving defensively, he worked at it) - but defensively I still prefer Johnson (better arm, better response time when seeing the ball off the bat). And offensively, Johnson has marginally better speed on the basepaths, is a much more patient hitter - which pays off just by letting everyone on the bench get a few more looks at what the opposing pitcher is throwing, and obviously is more than willing to sacrifice the body to get on base and let the sluggers who hit behind him move him around the bases.

A Johnson/Stairs platoon doesn't give up all that much defensively from a Johnson/Lind platoon, plus Stairs provides a veteran presence who has seen many of the opposing pitchers a few times,and can give the rest of the lineup the benefit of his experience. Also, to reiterate what others have said, Stairs also provides an emergency replacement at RF, 1B, and DH. Re-signing him was a great decision, and at an affordable cost - he's a great fit and he really wants to play here...which helps create a comfortable clubhouse environment.

And finally, as far as Lind goes - I certainly haven't written him off, but it'd be easier to get a read on him if he was more consistent...the improvement he showed defensively last season was encouraging, but the decline at the plate was puzzling, since he was always touted as being a great potential big-league hitter with pretty good power. Patience paid off with Rios, and I think it will with Lind as well...but right now I think the best place for him is at AAA to let him get his confidence up and his swing fine-tuned, and he will continue to make progress defensively without a nation-wide TV audience hanging on his every play.

ANationalAcrobat - Friday, November 02 2007 @ 11:24 PM EDT (#175793) #

And offensively, Johnson ... is a much more patient hitter - which pays off just by letting everyone on the bench get a few more looks at what the opposing pitcher is throwing

Adam Lind, 2007 Pitches/Plate Appearance: 3.8 (89 games)
Reed Johnson, 2007 Pitches/Plate Appearance: 3.83 (79 games). 2006: 3.81 (134 games)

They both see an average number of pitches.

Jimbag - Friday, November 02 2007 @ 11:38 PM EDT (#175794) #

"They both see an average number of pitches."

Averaged over a short season for both, sure. But I've seen Reed foul off a number of pitches many times, the same can't be said for Lind. Sometimes you swing at the first pitch, sometimes you wait and see what the pitcher has to offer. And I'd bet if we had an inning by inning breakdown of those stats, we'd see Reed take a large lead in the number of pitches per AB.

I don't have numbers to back that up, unfortunately. But having watched both Johnson and Lind bat, I stand by my statement.

Jimbag - Friday, November 02 2007 @ 11:40 PM EDT (#175795) #

Sorry, what I meant to say was Johnson sees more pitches in the early innings. My mistake.

dalimon5 - Saturday, November 03 2007 @ 01:26 AM EDT (#175797) #

Hey everyone. I moved out to LA this summer, and will be here for the next few years. Watching the Angels and Dodgers only makes me a bigger Jays fan. I take it for granted watching Halladay pitch every 5th day the way he does. The guy is just nasty. In my books, Santana tops him with stuff and mind, but only Halladay carries such a big heart. For his sake, I hope the jays sign Eckstein and a #3-4 starter such as Chris Benson, and that Glaus becomes the masher he is capable of being. I think Glaus's performance speaks volumes for the success of the club, which means if he isn't playing, well, AJ better carry the team again. With Wells, he seems to make the whole situation so sticky and frustrating by bringing the whole team down with his slumps (I can't count how many times I heard him curse or slam his bat down repeatedly during a game...yes I know Rios and Glaus did the same, but usually when they MISSED a pitch, not when they continued hitting in a bad slump). I just think such character rubs off on the other players. Sorry everyone, I know this post is scrambled. Go Jays.

The first blue jays fan anyone this side of the continent has met in person. It's funny when I argue that Halladay is the second best pitcher in baseball, if not the first, because every American down here agrees with me, including the sox fans who ARE nuts about Becket.
dalimon 5

The_Game - Saturday, November 03 2007 @ 06:13 AM EDT (#175800) #

Dalimon, some fans of this team have been angry at Vernon because he supposedly doesn't show enough emotion during games. I think you are just seeing what you want to see in this certain situation.

ANationalAcrobat - Saturday, November 03 2007 @ 09:42 AM EDT (#175801) #

Tim f'in Lincecum may be available. Wow, we don't actually need him, but having him on board would be too awesome.

timpinder - Saturday, November 03 2007 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#175802) #

I don't see Lind as the regular LF in 2009, despite Ricciardi's comments. In fact, I don't even see a position for Lind until 2010, unless a regular is traded. Wells, Rios and Overbay are controlled through 2010. Assuming Thomas' vested option kicks in, he's around through 2009. With the way Travis Snider pounded AFL pitching, he's likely to start the 2008 season in AA, which means a September stint with the Jays in 2008 is a strong possibility. With CF, RF, 1B and DH occupied, and with another left-handed LF bat with more potential than Lind climbing through the system, where is Lind going to play?

It's not that I don't think he's capable of being a good major league hitter, in fact I think he will be quite good. I just don't think there's room for him right now unless Johnson is released, Snider is delayed, or another player is traded or injured. I would personally like to see Lind as the starting LF in 2008. He could then shift to DH once Thomas' contract expires. It doesn't look like that's going to happen, however.

tstaddon - Saturday, November 03 2007 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#175803) #

I agree with the poster above who says the Jays should push for Kris Benson, and not only so that we can see Anna around the yard. He'd be a quality insurance policy at #4/5. Same goes for Matt Clement, who has enjoyed success and friendship with Brad Arnsberg before.

Anyone know if either/both could be ready to pitch by spring training?

Rickster - Saturday, November 03 2007 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#175804) #

You can never have enough good pitching. Lincecum struck out more than a batter an inning last season at age 23. The Jays would control him for five years. Do you think the Giants would consider Rios a 'quality bat'? Would Sabean be foolish enough to take the monstrous Wells contract off our hands?

As for Benson, he isn't nearly good enough to make up for all the baggage and distraction that he brings. He had 4.3 K/9 the last season he pitched, with a WHIP of 1.40. I'd rather let one of the young guys do a better job for a cheaper price (but that's just me).

ayjackson - Saturday, November 03 2007 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#175808) #

Allegedly, and I am unable to confirm, the print edition of Sports Illustrated has Miguel Tejada coming to Toronto for Adam Lind, Brandon League, and David Purcey.

timpinder - Saturday, November 03 2007 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#175809) #

Tejada? Really?

Not that it's beyond the realm of possibility, but I can't see the Jays getting Tejada for Lind, a rickety reliever, and a completely unproven pitching prospect, even if Purcey does have a high ceiling and pitched well in the AFL.

If it's true though, the Jays win that trade in my opinion.

Rickster - Saturday, November 03 2007 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#175810) #

The only reason that rumour is even remotely plausible is the fact that the Orioles are involved. Tejada for 3 fringe major leaguers? Come on....

timpinder - Saturday, November 03 2007 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#175811) #

ayjackson,

I located the article you were referring to. It was a hypothetical "five trade proposals that would benefit both teams", written by Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus.

Looks like the trade only exists inside his head. Oh well.

jerjapan - Saturday, November 03 2007 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#175812) #

One year ago I would've said no way, but today It does seem like a good trade for the Jays, although I'm assuming Baltimore is eating some of the contract when I say that. Tejada is coming off a wrist injury and a down year at the age of 31 ... but if they pay part of the salary, I'd do it.

Interesting to see the prospects offered ... Riccardi has started drafting higher-ceiling guys over the past few years, but those three players are three of the highest-ceiling advanced prospects we've got. He's still a results / projectability guy at heart ...

Smaj - Saturday, November 03 2007 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#175814) #

If that's the deal then done!

Lind does not seem to have a place in Toronto with the Stairs signing, and Snider is the LF of the future. Purcey is still an unknown, projection wise given his peripherals and injury this season (a nice AFL showing is hopefully enhancing his value). League had a tremendous arm, but last season should be considered lost given his Ferrigno-like deltoid regime in Hawaii. I predict he will be back to 2006 form for next season, but the Jays would be dealing from a position of strength in the bullpen to satisfy a huge offensive weakness with the predicted net gain in performance being significant. I hope this alleged trade happens now. From a Jays 2008 perspective, it is a middle releiver for a starting SS with offensive talent and league average defence (also a backup 3rd baseman for Glaus' potential steroid & injury issues). I want this to happen badly. Financially, as John Northey has hopefully detailed accurately (love your crusade on this John), Tejada's salary should be very affordable for the Canadian team. Hope SI is bang on here & JP pulls the "trigga".

CeeBee - Saturday, November 03 2007 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#175815) #

Is Tejada likely to bounce back and have a few more very good seasons or are we seeing the start of a long slow decline? While prospects are just that, I'm not so sure Tejada would be quite as good of an addition as he would seem to be based on his best seasons.

timpinder - Saturday, November 03 2007 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#175816) #

Again, the Tejada trade being discussed was nothing more than a hypothetical suggestion by Joe Sheehan. It has no substance.

Here's the link:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/baseball/mlb/10/30/hot.stove1105/

ayjackson - Saturday, November 03 2007 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#175817) #

Thanks Timpinder. I couldn't find it myself and was unsure of the context.

greenfrog - Saturday, November 03 2007 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#175818) #

Sheehan's trade proposal makes sense. But it should be noted that Tejada wasn't much of a slugger last year (19 doubles, 1 triple, 18 HR in 514 AB) and didn't walk much (41 times). Still, he's only 31. I think there's a good chance he'd rebound. He would make our lineup much better. For example:

Against RHP:

Rios
Tejada
Stairs
Thomas
Overbay
Glaus
Wells
Zaun
Hill

Or, against LHP:

Johnson
Rios
Tejada
Thomas
Glaus
Wells
Overbay
Zaun
Hill

Those are two very good lineups. Another advantage of acquiring Tejada is that he would help protect the lineup against injuries. Let's say Glaus gets hurt (as he surely will at some point). Without a SS who can hit, and/or a credible sub at 3B for Glaus, the bottom third of our lineup--Zaun/Fasano, McDonald, Inglett/Olmedo--becomes a sinkhole again, and we're back to square one.

Realistically, though, I think Baltimore would hold out for McGowan, Janssen or Accardo as part of the return package.

CaramonLS - Saturday, November 03 2007 @ 06:27 PM EDT (#175819) #

I'd do both deals, Wells in a New York minute and Rios with a little hesitation - on the condition that Lincecum is subjected to a very very thorough physical examination to make sure there are no "issues". Pitchers get injured - and trotting out 5 quality starters is much more desirable than throwing out only 4. The Idea of having a 4th or 5th starter is a big pile - each game matters just as much as the next, so might as well get quality arms pitching in ALL of them. Moving one of our Right handed bats is a step in the right direction - even if it is Rios.

ANationalAcrobat - Saturday, November 03 2007 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#175820) #

It does seem like a good trade for the Jays, although I'm assuming Baltimore is eating some of the contract when I say that.

Think about what you're saying - that implies Tejada is worth less than 2 years/26 million, which is an absolute bargain.

Grasshopper - Monday, November 05 2007 @ 07:40 AM EST (#175824) #

Tejada.... That would only be an extra pain. He is not a good fit on the jays. The jays are a group of team players. Tejada would be like T.O. on the Eagles

HollywoodHartman - Monday, November 05 2007 @ 07:57 AM EST (#175825) #

...So he'd get us to the championship game?

rpriske - Monday, November 05 2007 @ 08:57 AM EST (#175826) #

I'm surprised so many people think Reed Johnson is goign to be a Blue Jay next year.

I'd bet against it, personally.

Flex - Monday, November 05 2007 @ 09:44 AM EST (#175827) #

After the Stairs signing Ricciardi was talking about a Stairs/Johnson platoon in left. I think that's why people think he's coming back.

Pistol - Monday, November 05 2007 @ 09:47 AM EST (#175828) #

I suppose he could be lying but JP indicated Johnson would be back (and I'm not sure what would be gained from it).

There has been speculation about Toronto possibly parting ways with Johnson, who missed three months with a back injury, but Ricciardi said that's no longer the case.
"There's no reason why we wouldn't be able to bring him back," Ricciardi said about Johnson, who is eligible for arbitration. "He'd probably play more than Matt, so it wouldn't be a part-time role. He'd probably be in the lineup a little bit more than Matt would be, but it just gives us a chance to play Matt against some tough right-handers."

John Northey - Monday, November 05 2007 @ 11:44 AM EST (#175830) #

I think Johnson returns unless he gets a stupid amount via arbitration. Given his horrid year last year I think $3 million is about where he'll end up. More than you'd like to pay a platoon outfielder but not horrid plus he still hit lefties well (325/381/532 over 85 PA) so he does have value. $4 million I see as the absolute limit for him and the Jays would dump him if he pushes for more than that.

December 20th is the deadline for contracts to be offered iirc so we'll know by then.

Greg - Monday, November 05 2007 @ 04:34 PM EST (#175836) #

rotoworld.com is reporting Blue Jay interest in Yorvit Torrealba as a free agent

It got pretty ugly this year when Zaun was hurt and I'm not entirely sold on Thigpen as ready yet. But colour me unimpressed. He's had an OPS+ in the 70s for 3 straight years. Hopefully it's just a rumour, or he pulls a Barajas.

dalimon5 - Monday, November 05 2007 @ 06:25 PM EST (#175837) #

Also, came across a Rosenthal bit on Foxsports stating the following:

"Don't forget Blue Jays third baseman Troy Glaus when considering the Yankees' list of potential replacements for A-Rod. The Yankees inquired about Glaus at the July 31 non-waiver deadline, intending to play him at first base. The Blue Jays almost certainly will listen to offers for Glaus, whose recurring foot problems leave the team with little choice but to send him to a club that plays on a natural-grass surface."

To me it sounds like the Yanks were looking for a contract dump, which wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing if the Jays had somebody to plug in, which they don't. If it is the case that the Yanks interest was only for salary (they weren't willing to part with prospects), then it is almost certain that other teams will be in the same strategy mode so to speak, so forget Glaus for Brandon Wood deals and start thinking Glaus and Janssen for a B+ or possibly A- prospect. The best option for JP and the gang, is probably to let Glaus go out and do his thing (40 plus homers) if his foot holds up. If it doesn't, well...you tell me

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7394064

ANationalAcrobat - Monday, November 05 2007 @ 10:33 PM EST (#175839) #

Pettite declined his $16 million option with the Yankees. It's probably a good thing since he is still an effective pitcher (110 ERA+ last year) and not having him aboard reduces rotation depth for the Yanks. I just hope he doesn't follow Clemens and waste everyone's time deciding over whether or not to retire.

John Northey - Tuesday, November 06 2007 @ 04:44 AM EST (#175841) #

If the Jays do a straight salary dump of Glaus without replacing him with someone better then I'd be very, very frustrated. If that happened I'd be hoping to see JP and Godfrey let go and Rogers selling the team as obviously the current team is not interested in anything but the bottom line. The Jays have more cash available this year than the vast majority of teams and are a large market team. To act in the fashion of a small market team is unacceptable.

Chuck - Tuesday, November 06 2007 @ 08:17 AM EST (#175842) #

I just hope he doesn't follow Clemens and waste everyone's time deciding over whether or not to retire.

Pettitte's agent, Randy Hendricks: "I do not expect him to make a decision for quite some time."

It's not clear to me he's wasting everyone's time. Only the Yankees are put in a tough position. They must now not bank on Pettitte for his 200 innings and must make alternate arrangements as a contingency. Players rarely walk away from such a pay day (they talk about, but who actually does it?). I'm guessing he'll return, just like I'm guessing Glavine will return.

lexomatic - Tuesday, November 06 2007 @ 10:08 AM EST (#175843) #

I have to log back in after my self-imposed exile. I've said it a million times, but now is the time to target Marte in Cleveland. His stagnation at AAA and failure to do anything at the ML level might make him available for less than what both Boston and Cleveland paid. Cleveland might be willing to take a good bullpen arm or 2 as final pieces to push them over the edge.
That would give the Jays security for Glaus, or the opportunity to trade him. I would be OK with .260 20 HRs and good defense from 3B. He's also still only 23 or 24 which means there's still room for improvement. I expect all he needs is a full season without the worry that he'll be sent down (i.e. the Gordon treatment in KC).

ANationalAcrobat - Tuesday, November 06 2007 @ 10:16 AM EST (#175844) #

Marte has indeed struggled, but that may provide Cleveland with a reason not to trade him. I doubt they will sell low on him unless they are blown away by a package, in which case they would not be selling low. I believe they have Casey Blake at 3B, and he's a solid player but hardly a stud - Marte is not really blocked or anything.

On the other hand, this is exactly what happened with Brandon Phillips, so it does happen. Perhaps they will have learned from that episode...

ayjackson - Tuesday, November 06 2007 @ 11:48 AM EST (#175845) #

Here, in Step 3, the Hardball Times allude to a little known rule that would limit the Yanks (and any team) to just three Class A or B free agent signings. With Pettitte opting out of his contract, it would seem unlikely that he has a future with the Yanks.

John Northey - Tuesday, November 06 2007 @ 12:16 PM EST (#175846) #

Marte is interesting. In '05 he hit 275/372/506 in AAA and sucked in a call-up to the majors (16 OPS+). Since then his OBP went to 322 then 309, his slg% to 451/457 and with two more call-ups his lifetime ML figures are 304 PA hitting 201/263/356 for a McDonald like 59 OPS+.

He has now had 7 years in the minors which is pushing it with 3 years at AAA where he got worse, not better. Next year is his age 24 season, which suggests he isn't a future HOF'er but might still be a very good player. I think his fate depends on how many players Cleveland has to protect on their 40 man roster. If they are pushing it (say, with 42 or 43 guys who they want to protect) he will be looked at as trade bait. If they have space (say, 38-40 guys) then he'll be staying put for now. I'd say he has to show improvement this year or Cleveland will send him out of town.

Chuck - Tuesday, November 06 2007 @ 01:20 PM EST (#175847) #

Vernon Wells had about the same number of AAA at-bats as Marte, also showing precious little progress during his time there. He was a year younger than Marte, which is not a small deal, and the likelihood of a player progressing in the majors after such an uninspiring AAA career is more unlikely than not. Still, Marte shouldn't be written off entirely just yet, though obviously the ceiling ain't as high as it once was. I can't imagine that Cleveland has any plans to work him into their lineup.

ANationalAcrobat - Tuesday, November 06 2007 @ 01:33 PM EST (#175848) #

Fascinating rule, AY. I'd never heard of that at all. One thing in that article really bothered me though.

Step 1: Trade Melky Cabrera, Wilson Betemit, Shelley Duncan and Darrell Rasner for Johan Santana.

Unfortunately, it's not unusual for THT to post this type of inanity, which is why I hardly ever read their stuff.

John Northey - Tuesday, November 06 2007 @ 01:33 PM EST (#175849) #

Hrm. The Star just had an article about the Jays payroll - http://www.thestar.com/Sports/article/273895

Key quote from Godfrey...
"If a legitimate question presented itself, I'm sure I could present a case. That's the way we have always done it. A lot depends on the player. If you're talking about Alex Rodriguez, then the answer is no."

Basically it looks like Rogers is going to pocket the bonus cash and make a lot of profit this year. Payroll _may_ grow by $10 million, but it may not. They might blow ... er ... invest $6-9 million in a mid-rotation starter.

Blech (especially if they go for Griffen's choice Carlos Silva)

If that is what the Jays do this offseason then I'm saving time and money next year by not going to games and not bothering to watch the games 90% of the time on tv. It is unacceptable for this team to be stuffing its pockets with $200+ million in revenue (based on Bud's figures plus the fact the Jays are in the top 7 for market size, perhaps the top 5) and a skyrocketing dollar while holding payroll at sub-$100 million. If they were blowing it on draft picks being taken late in the draft due to high bonus demands I could live with it but they are not (if anything they are going cheap on that too).

Right now, when it comes to the Jays, I am very unhappy and figuring we're stuck with a 3rd place team (if we are lucky) who will fight for 500 year in, year out, into the 2010's. Lets hope the Jays do something to surprise us all this winter and prove me (and Griffen) wrong.

John Northey - Tuesday, November 06 2007 @ 01:37 PM EST (#175851) #

Good point about Wells Chuck. Marte is hardly a lost cause at this point, but the big question for Cleveland (and anyone who wants him) is if Marte is still one of their top 40 guys with 3+ years experience. That is why I see this as being the year he shows himself to be a major leaguer or a career AAA guy. A solid year in AAA and he still has a shot, but another year like the last two and AAA is all he has.

jsut - Tuesday, November 06 2007 @ 01:37 PM EST (#175852) #

Schilling signs a 1 year (final year) deal with the sox.

http://38pitches.com/2007/11/06/done/#more-116

Mylegacy - Tuesday, November 06 2007 @ 02:22 PM EST (#175854) #

John - cool down. Take a walk, breath in deeply, hold it, breath out. There, don't you feel better?

IF, (and I admit it's a big IF) we stay healthy the 08 Jay's ARE contenders, no question. I'm not going to list the 07 injuries and surgeries, we all know them.

Our rotation is Halladay, Burnett, McGowan - three could be Aces; and two of Marcum, Litsch, Janssen or Wolfe - all four of these guys are legit starters on a contending team. We do not NEED to blow another 10 to 20 million - even if we decided we were to spend that money who would be worth it? Would we trade for Tejada and pick up his 13 million? Who would give us enough of a boost to offset what we trade to get him? What free agents that could make a REAL difference are out there? ARod comes to Toronto and loses however many zillion in endorsement money he could make - ya right.

IF HEALTHY - Johnson/Stairs or Lind, Wells, Rios, Glaus, JMac, Hill, Overbay, Zaun and Thomas or Thomas/Stairs IS AN EXCELLENT one through eight. No one has a better starting five and our bullpen is staggering - absolutely fantastic if Ryan and League return to form. The ONLY step that makes sense for JP to look at is if he can get a REALLY SUPERIOR SS or 2nd then I could see them going to Rogers for a bunch of cash - no other move is going to give us substantial boom for the buck.

John, cool down. Lets save the money until we see who gets injured and then make a move...as things stand RIGHT NOW this team is bloody good! John, keep the faith man!

Paul D - Tuesday, November 06 2007 @ 02:41 PM EST (#175855) #

I just wanted to speak up for THT

Unfortunately, it's not unusual for THT to post this type of inanity, which is why I hardly ever read their stuff.

I disagree, I found it very unusual and one of the worst articles I've read there.

ayjackson - Tuesday, November 06 2007 @ 02:48 PM EST (#175856) #

I'm really hoping to see a future oriented move for the left side of the infield. Even if we go status quo there next year with Glaus and MacDonald, we have nothing in the ranks between Toronto and Auburn. Kevin Ahrens, John Tolisano, Balbino Fuenmayor, and Justin Jackson are years away. I'd like to see a MLB ready or AAA ready prospect brought in to the system.

Lu in Los Angeles looks the best bet to me, right now.

Chuck - Tuesday, November 06 2007 @ 04:41 PM EST (#175862) #

and two of Marcum, Litsch, Janssen or Wolfe - all four of these guys are legit starters on a contending team.

Roger, your rainbows and sunshine are often an entertaining contrast to the iconoclastic grumblings of many in this forum, myself included. But even you have to sometimes concede that you may have dipped a little too heavily into the Koolaid.

Brian Wolfe made the conversion from starter to reliever in 2003. In the four summers from 2004 to 2007, he started all of 7 games, none higher than at AA. To proclaim him a legit starter, especially on a contending team, is a wee bit of a stretch, no?

Casey Janssen, despite his wonderful 2007 as a reliever, can in no way yet be considered a legit starter, not if his 26 AAA/MLB starts in 2006 are to be considered exhibit A.

Jesse Litsch may start striking out guys like he did in the minors or he may morph into a member of the Wang/Silva family and succeed via a high GB/FB ratio. Or he may explode altogether in 2008 because he's 14 years old. Legit prospect, yes. Legit starter, perhaps a little early for such an assertion.

Were Uncle Ted of the mind to add 180 innings of reasonable quality to the #5 slot in the rotation, I'd suggest that there's room in the inn. I'm far more interested in him spending his money for my amusement than for him to sock it away to buy another tropical island.

timpinder - Tuesday, November 06 2007 @ 05:48 PM EST (#175863) #

A.J. BURNETT is on the trading block.

Rotoworld is reporting that J.P. told ESPN he's entertaining trade offers for Burnett.

If it's a salary dump, then in my opinion that's a bad move. If it's a talent for talent trade that brings in a hitting SS, for example, well, that would be fine. But I'd like to have pitching depth. McGowan has to be an injury concern because of his TJ history, Marcum hasn't proven he has the legs to start and Litsch's numbers suggest his ERA is destined to rise. J.P. may be hoping that one of Janssen or Wolfe can be a good starter.

ANationalAcrobat - Tuesday, November 06 2007 @ 05:58 PM EST (#175864) #

JP has said some things about AJ he never should have, and perhaps they both know AJ will not sign another contract in Toronto. After next year, it is completely unimaginable that AJ should be worth less than 2 years/24 million, even if he spends the whole year hurt. It's nearly certain AJ will opt out, and if he's being traded now for talent, it may not be such a bad idea considering we are unlikely to have him more than one year anyways.

On the other hand, he's a tremendous pitcher and trading your most talented pitcher is a very risky proposition. I'm glad to see JP poking around to find out what he can get, but it's only worth biting if he gets the exact right offer.

ANationalAcrobat - Tuesday, November 06 2007 @ 06:02 PM EST (#175865) #

- I just read the Rotoworld blurb and they make an excellent point: AJ is better than any free agent pitcher. It's a thin market, and any club in need of an ace will perhaps pay a premium.

- It's also interesting that JP told ESPN about AJ's availability rather than simply letting it be known among GMs. I'm not sure what to make of it, but it's interesting.

Flex - Tuesday, November 06 2007 @ 06:48 PM EST (#175867) #

Might as well let Ricciardi himself do the talking. Here's the piece on espn.com

ayjackson - Tuesday, November 06 2007 @ 07:35 PM EST (#175868) #

While the Free Agent market may be thin, Johan Santana, Erik Bedard, Dontrell Willis and maybe even Scott Kazmir may be joining AJ on the "if the price is right" market.

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