Speaking of SS.  I'm not sure if I'd want to take a stab at him, but with how badly his last couple seasons have gone and with Murphy coming up through the system in Oakland could Bobby Crosby be had for relatively little.

What's his contract situation? He was paid 2.5 last year.  And has his 2 years of awfulness been entirely due to injuries?

As far as free agents go, I think Michael Barrett should be priority #1.  I would offer him a 3 year 15 million deal.  A Barrett/Zaun combination with Barrett getting 70% of the playing time upgrades this team a lot.  It gives Diaz and Thigpen another year of seasoning before Zaun's contract is up after 2008. 

As far as trades, I would try to address the SS situation first.  Peralta could be available from Cleveland for the right price as Cabrera is a SS and they have Barfield for 2nd base.  I was thinking of a Glaus for Peralta deal, but there would have to be some serious salary eaten or taken back in the form of contracts from Toronto to make it work.  Paul Byrd is making 8 million and is currently going through HGH allegations, maybe Cleveland wants to unload him.  Cleveland gets Glaus, Frasor, Purcey TOR gets Peralta and Byrd.      

As well liked as Tri-pod is, non-tender him, allow Adam Lind to play full time & sign someone like Jose Cruz Jr. or Jeff DaVanon as the 4th outfielder. Sparky should improve his numbers across the board, however for the money he'll be earning & with a capable replacement, that money can be allocated to improve a greater weakness. As for resigning Stairs, 2007 was a great year for him, but he'll be 40 & prior to '07, his numbers were going downhill. The Jays should look for a more versatile 4th OF.

The teams most glaring weakness is SS. However convincing Denbo may sound that he can "possibly" turn McDonald into a decent hitter, the likelyhood is that if it hasn't happened in the 10+ years McDonald has played pro ball, it probably won't happen this season & thru the length of McDonald's contract. The team should take a look at Tomohiro Nioka & see if he's for real. If he is, it would be money well spent as it's great marketing for Toronto for the city & the team, as well as internationally. Uncle Ted should allow some added payroll under those circumstances. 

FA's the Jays should contact are Hinske, for his versatility & LH bat. Clement & Benson, for pitching depth & both are coming back after missing '07 & should be able to sign incentive laden contracts. Litsch should start the season in the minors to get him work & to see if he can sustain his success despite pretty weak peripherals. As for veteran backup catchers, there's no one very exciting out there (considering that  they're an exciting group, of course), & the team should either resign Fasano, play Thigpen more, or see if Diaz is able to contribute in the bigs. 

I'm not sure if the Marlins are looking to rid themselves of Dontrelle Willis anymore, but maybe a package containing Adam Lind, Jesse Litsch and a minor leaguer (+ Frasor maybe) could pry him away.  Maybe also get them to include a low ceiling minor league outfielder or SS prospect and hope to catch lightning in a bottle.  Then lock up Willis ala the Red Sox and Beckett!  Then fill your outfield need with a platoon of Reed Johnson and someone like Kenny Lofton (free agent this winter??).

Don't resign Matt Stairs, he was the Jays version of what the A's did with Thomas in '06.  So let someone else give him the drastic raise that he's going to bargain for!

I think I'd want a little more than Hu for Accardo. 

As far as the second half bad fade...it's true only for his splitter in 2007 which thus reduced his strikeouts.  Otherwise his numbers were better in the second half.  June was really his only really bad month though his July peripherals weren't great either.

Pre-Allstar: 35.1ip, 28h, 2hr, 16bb, 38k, 2.80era, 1.25whip, .211baa

Post-Allstar: 32.0ip, 23h, 2hr, 8bb, 19k, 1.41era, 0.97whip, .200baa

Combined with the fact that he's more effective against lefties than righties (including zero homeruns given up), this is a valuable relief arm that you don't want to lose.

Now if we knew Ryan was 100% and League would be the League everyone dreams of from 2004 and the second half of 2006, we'd have the luxury of maybe trading Accardo.

But if those two aren't back 100% and Janssen, Wolfe, and Tallet maybe can't continue their production with their low/average strikeout rates, this is a pen that can easily go from strong to having a lot of problems in 2008 if you don't have the one guy in Accardo that seems to have all the required tools for success.

Now if the Jays could get say...Hu plus Kemp I'd have a hard time saying no.  I don't think that kind of offer would be forthcoming.  Barring that I'd rather trade Janssen one up for Hu or Kemp.  I think Janssen's performance is much more likely to be a mirage than Accardo's and he certainly does not have the advantage of being strong against lefties.

It's going to take a lot more than downs for him.

I personally would prefer a veteran proven SS. Someone like Edgar Renteria. And the man himself should be available. Would Marcum be enough to get it done? Escobar needs to play soon and is cheaper, and the Braves desperately need a mid-rotatuion starter. I don't think the Jays would mind to take on the salary.

I only have 2 big offseason wishes: a big payroll increase so J.P. can go out and play, and NOT TRADING DUSTIN MCGOWAN. For anything. The first one depends on Uncle Ted, and he's been pretty generous lately so with the big Canadian dollar it seems reasonable, and the second one I'm pretty sure J.P. would agree with me wholeheartedly on.

In my mind there's only 6 Jays that would have good trade value:  Halladay, McGowan, Rios, Marcum, Accardo, and Snider.  Anyone else included in a trade for a good player would just be a throw in.  And the only one of those 6 that the Jays would likely even consider trading is Accardo.

Good list, but I'd add A.J. Burnett. His contract looks pretty reasonable nowadays, so I gotta assume someone would give up value for him.

The Pirates are looking to seriously retool. I'd love to grab Tom Gorzelenny as the three hole LHSP but I doubt they'd go for it. With them already looking at shopping Jason Bay in a bid to restock thier bullpen and infield, how about League and Frasor for Paul Maholm?

Maholm doesn't have great numbers but has shown much greater control this year and a willingness to pitch to contact. With the strength of Toronto's infield defensively, that alone should bring down his numbers. He also had a strong second half this year, and is showing more consistency.

The Pirates bullpen is painfully weak. League as the setup man for Capp replaces the likely gone Chacon, and Frasor is historically a dependable anchor in mid-relief that the Bacs need. Shopping Bay should land them another starter as part of the deal, which makes Maholm a potential trading chip.  

It'd be pretty tough to get an every day player for a reliever, let alone two.  I can't imagine the Dodgers trading those two for McGowan let alone Accardo.

I'm not so sure about this...I think we've seen teams pay a premium for established quality pitching, even relievers, and especially closers.  Accardo has a limited history against him but he also has youth and affordability.  It's not as though Hu and Kemp are even established players in the big leagues.  You combine Accardo's ERA with solid peripherals and saves totals, you've got a commodity for which you can demand a fair bit.  If a team sees closer as a need they are more likely to give up a little extra to fill it.

The fact of the matter is you have to look for that kind of deal if you're going to trade an asset like Accardo.  You can't just say well he's a reliever so let's look for a "fair" return.  He's not just a reliever, he's a high leverage reliever with market value and you want to maximize the return on him.  There's no point trading him otherwise.  If they don't get an everyday player or a couple of good prospects then what would they get?  Another reliever?

Accardo and Janssen are nowhere near enough for Hu, and to mention them in the same breath as Kemp means you don't have the slightest clue of what you are talking about.

Sorry, I forgot Kemp and Hu already had his place in the Hall of Fame carved out and ready to go.

If Joel Guzman plus another prospect can be traded for a RENTAL of Julio Lugo, what makes an established closer with years to go until free agency or an outfielder in his arbitration years and an All-Star appearance unreasonable return for guys like Kemp and Hu?

If I was a GM trading guys like Rios and Accardo who were two of the most important parts of my team and are very affordable, that's the type of return I would seek.  Otherwise trading them would be irresponsible.  What are those guys worth then?  C prospects? 

There is no reason for LA to say yes to that kind of deal but there is also no reason for the Jays to ask for less.  Trades are not easy to make for this very reason.

I'm trying to come up with a viable trade which would see either Orlando Cabrera or Brandon Wood end up in TO, but I'm shooting blanks right now - I'm not sure what that team really wants or needs right now.  Bullpen help maybe?  Anahiem has always prided itself on stocking up, assembling one of the top pens in MLB, but I'm not sure. 

Starting pitching?  Lackey, Escobar and Weaver are locks for that staff next season - Santana, Moseley and Saunders are all question marks (but probable).  Janssen probably isn't enough.

I also target Bartolo Colon in the off season too.  1yr/5 million + incentives - a contract both sides can be happy with after coming off 2 injury plagued, poor seasons.  The upside is an ace.  For those wondering about Litsch/Janssen not getting their fair shake should just take a look at Magpie's chart about "the sixth man".

Since I continue to obsess about Glaus' extremity problems; I suggest we give Corey Koskie a look see - he could come very cheap and is a LH bat. We'll see in Spring Training if only he can walk a straight line without falling over.

Barfield is not an upgrade. Renteria definitely would be... for Janssen or 'gasp' Accardo and then sign Gagne. Gagne should be better by next year - he might end up being a steal and should be OK till the Ryan express is ready. Nothing too big will happen at catcher - JP wants some guy that can throw - I don't expect much of a splash here.

Money is available - no question. We've got about 12 million coming off the books this winter -and- with the Looney (the Canadian dollar to the heathens to the south) soaring higher than an American Eagle -and- considering we were prepared to increase the 07 payroll by 20 million (10 to Lilly and 10 to Meche) we've got a few bob (old English money to the southern heathens and the non British-decended northerns) to play with.

I suspect that there may be a surprise this off-season. At some point JP is going to hear of someone being availabe that comes as a shot out of the blue and the hooked nose one will make the move.

Least wise, that's how I see's it.

This is do-able for both sides:

To Toronto:
Carl Crawford

To Tampa:
Jesse Litsch
Casey Janssen
Reed Johnson

Litsch from TBay, Casey a cheap but very good mid-reliever

Could see this benefitting both teams for years

Barrett had a down year in 2007.  But the 3 previous years his OPS+ was 108, 110, 121.  I think he's clearly the 2nd best catcher on the free agent market behind Posada, who isn't going anywhere.  He might even come cheap on a 1 year contract in hopes of re-establishing his value.   

I would think a LH bat with some pop. An outfielder would be nice. Garret Anderson is 35 years old, and he was their top LH power source last year with 16 HR.  He's also only managed to play as many as 100 games in the outfield once in the last four seasons.

Well, I was thinking they might just go with Matthews/Vlad/Willtis/Rivera (injured all last season) and have Anderson as the DH, Kotchman as the 1B.  If they do decide they need an additional OF, I'd trade Rios.  I'd trade Wells if I could, but that isn't possible right now.

Now, before anyone decides to hang me from a tree, here is how I look at it.  We have way, way too many of the same player on this team - Righties with Power - The corner OF is the easiest to replace with another left hander, one which we have in the system in Adam Lind - It would allow us to add some major offense at the SS position (say Wood) as well as some possible prospects at other positions (to be determined, but Wood for Rios is a major overpayment for the jays, fill in the blanks if you like).  Adam Lind + platoon Partner (I don't know, Chad Mottola or some other Righty the Jays have in the system, pretty sure there is another Righty masher in AAA) would give production equal to Rios or even above it, and address the need of hitting vs. LHP.  Rios had a slightly under .800 OPS vs. Righties.  Lind can do better than that next season - and the offensive power from the SS position Rios brings back adds to the value for the team.

Keep the Stairs/Johnson Platoon on the other side of the Diamond, and promise Stairs he starts 100% of the time vs. Righties.

Stairs/Lind/Wells/Overbay/Hill/Offensive SS/Glaus/Zaun/Thomas gives us a much better chance to win, with the balance that offense brings to the table on a nightly basis, than our roster last season.

The Jays' biggest holes are C, SS, LF and SP.  While the pitching was fantastic, I think it is an area of concern, because I think Listch needs to have more time in AAA and I do not expecte both Marcum and McGowan to perform at the same level - young pitchers break too many hearts, while we have players such as Halladay, Wells, Glaus, Rios, Burnett, Ryan all in the peak of their careers. Here's my thoughts:

• SP - As the Jays' have internal options, find a low-risk, high upsdie signing such as a Benson, Jennings, Wolf, etc FA that will provide innings at low base, high bonus.  Put them in the four lot, move one of the young guys to 5 slot and keep Litsch in Syracuse for one year.  Don't bank on anything from Chacin. Sign an FA and expect the net increase in salary from this to be 4-8 million.
• C - There's not much out there and while Zaun is old, he is serviceable for a year.  Find a reliable C to plug the hole for 45 games and know that you will not see excellent production from C for the year.  Net salary bump: 500K-1 million.
• SS - A gaping hole for offense.  This cannot be the case when there are offensive holes in LF and C as well.  There's still plenty of 2B on the market this year, and I am completely confident that Hill can make the move back to SS if needed.  Either sign a 2B FA that can move to SS or take Hill (who has lots of time before FA to develop at the cornerstone positions) and plug him at SS for 2008.  I think an excellent fit in Toronto (he's a FA) is Tadahito Iguchi, formerly of the White Sox and Phillies.  He will give you slightly-above league average hitting at 2B and could be signed for a 2-3 year deal.  There's no phenom coming up in the Jays' system, so this would be a good investment.  McDonald is useful on the team between SS, 2B and 3B.  We need a solid infield backup with Glaus' health concerns, so consider his new deal a great investment to have a infield backup who will probably get to start 60-80 games between the three positions. Net salary bump: 5-6 million.
• LF - Reed Johnson was a good player in 2006, but it was a complete abberation from his career norms.  He is best as a 4th outfielder.  We need a versatile 4th outfielder.  He fits the bill.  To take his place, create a package of Lind and Accardo or Janssen for a high potential OF, such as Kemp, or if Ted feels he can stomach the payroll at $100 million, sign a FA outfielder such as Bradley, Guillen (no problem with having a lightening rod in the clulbhouse - something sorely missing for years), Rowand, Lofton or Cameron.  Any of these players improve the defence, provide us with a solidified 4th OF (Johnson) and improve the offense at the top of the order.  Rowand would be an incredible signing and provide the Jays with one of the best OF in baseball. If they decide to improve LF via trade, we will probably see a net zero salary bump.  With the high CDN dollar, a high-profile FA can be budgeted and will mean a net salary bump of 11 million.

I think you're right about this one Chuck: Gagne did not play in the WBC and even discouraged Russ Martin from playing for team Canada, saying the team was more important. At this point, it seemed like Martin had NO shot at making the Dodgers and I remember the Globe and Mail discussing how absurd it was that he was not going to be Canada's catcher. Obviously Gagne was correct to encourage Martin to stay with the Dodgers; we all know about how Martin established himself in '06. All of this to say that Gagne felt no burning desire to play for team Canada at the WBC, and Toronto may not mean much to him either.

SS - A gaping hole for offense.  This cannot be the case when there are offensive holes in LF and C as well.

It's worth noting Catcher is hardly a gaping hole for Toronto. Zaun posted a 98 OPS+ last year despite being clearly bothered by a broken thumb that takes several months to fully heal. The year before, his OPS+ was 112; he has a decent bat. An average or slightly below average hitter is hardly a gaping hole. For what it's worth, ZIPS has Zaun just a hair above the average catcher next year.

I'm not sure where this LF "hole" comes from.

A Stairs/Johnson Platoon was the single best player for the Jays last season - well above the production that any other player managed.  Getting rid of this would be a major step backwards for the organization.

The only real "hole" on this team is the SS position.  LF/C are fine for their production levels, and really, the "upgrades" in each of those areas would be minimal at best.  You need to drastically change the makeup of this team in order to have some noticable improvement, which means replacing one of:  Wells, Rios, Thomas, Glaus - with a Left handed Power Bat.

Barring a bigger pickup for a SS via trade or FA 2B to move Hill over, how about JASON FRASOR to Tampa Bay for BEN ZOBRIST?

A 274/329/404 line would be MLB average for someone playing half his games at Skydome. This does not seem unrealistic for Zobrist (though I would expect a lower average and more walks of course).

The Braves are dripping with SS in their system.  They had three that made BA's top 20 prospects in the Appy league.

Adam Lind to Atlanta for Brent Lillibridge and  Brandon Hicks (either could move to third when Glaus is done).

Sign Brad Wilkerson and resign Reed Johnson for LF platoon and leadoff spot.

If anyone thinks that the Jays clubjhouse has the right ingredient for success, I want you to watch the Red Sox after they win a game.  Here's a bunch of guys that laugh, dance and party together.  Our great teams had gritty ball players that got dirty and were aggressive players - Gruber, Borders, David Wells, Mookie Wilson, Alomar.  I mean, that was part of the reason "the" trade took place - the combination of Fernandez and McGriff was seen as lacksadasical in the clubhouse.  I see no problem with having a player that grates on teammates. 

Hillenbrand was that, and agreed, it did not work but that is because he degraded the team, saying that it was incabable of winning.  He was doubly faulted because he did this while going after someone seen as a leader and stalwart in the clubhouse (Zaun).  Goodness knows, there are more ways than that to push teammates to play harder - like aggressively challenging the team to up their game rather than simply pie-in-the facing.  For this reason, I would love to see the Jays go after someone with some guile and add an edge to the club, such as a Rowand, Guillen or Bradley. 

If anyone thinks that the Jays clubhouse has the right ingredient for success

There is no one right clubhouse mix for success (think of the 1972 A's, or the 1978 Yankees), but at any rate the Jays 92-93 teams could hardly have resembled the current Red Sox any less. (And Gruber and Wells, who were only part of the 1992 squad, were absolutely not regarded by their team mates as: a) team leaders, or b) hard-working. gritty ball players.)

The 1992-93 Blue Jays were regarded as a bunch of mature, grown-up professionals. That clubhouse was all briefcases and mobile phones, and the people the players were calling were their agents and their brokers.
 

perhaps david purcey or ricky romero instead. get some good value for them while they still can.

Unless one of them absolutely catches fire in the AFL, neither has much value right now, since they're both coming off injury-and-inconsistent seasons  - this would almost definitely be a "sell low" situation.

Jonathan

The Red Sox had pretty much the same group last year but there wasn't much to laugh, party or dance about... Same ingredients but success isn't easy to come by in this game.

My friend, you forget the payroll added in Matsuzaka, Drew, Okijima and Gagne.  That is about 40 million per year of "support".

Folks talking about letting Reed go need to explain what the Jays do for a leadoff hitter. It is a distinct skill/stat set, and I don't see anyone else on the team who would be a good choice.

Anyone else? Johnson's OBP's from age 26 to 30: 353, 320, 332, 390, 305 (career: 342, league average: 339)

Is it clear in Johnson's track record that he has this "distinct skill/stat set" of which you speak? If we knew he was going to repeat 2006 (390/479), that LF job could be his for the asking. But there are several reasons for doubt on that front: age, injury history and lack of prior evidence that 2006 wasn't just a wee bit flukey.

Johnson's still got a .342 career OBP, which combined with being a good runner (if not a good base stealer), makes him the best option on the team to hit leadoff, if not a particularly great option in general. And it goes up to .371 against lefties, so he at least deserves to be leading off then.

The big question, though, is what kind of player he is post-surgery, and whether that player is going to be worth the $4 million or so he'll probably get in 2008. To that, I really don't know. He still hit very well against lefties in 2007 (small sample size, but still fairly consistent with his career), so a Johnson-Lind platoon might still be a good option.

so a Johnson-Lind platoon might still be a good option

Agreed. Johnson career vs. LHP/RHP: 308/371/462, 267/328/383

If Johnson starts against RHP in 2008 in the team's expectations of a repeat of 2006 (which was unlikely enough at age 29, let alone post-back surgery at age 31), then that will be a sign of a fundamental lack of objectivity. It's one thing for fans to see the world through rose-coloured glasses, but an entirely different matter when the brass does so.

"It's one thing for fans to see the world through rose-coloured glasses, but an entirely different matter when the brass does so."

A very good point. JP really seems not to be able to take his fan glasses off sometimes though. (Refusing to see Burnett's injury history for one...). One of the problems teams like the Jays have when it comes to making deals, is they don't have much to give up. It's POSSIBLE that someone would overpay for Fraser, Downs, etc...but it's unlikely. The reality is that the Jays don't have much talent to trade.  Even then, many of the players that do have value have unattractive contracts which makes their value even lower than it would be . Three decent players don't get you one good player in a trade.

Nice point Chuck, I think you're exactly right.

Looks like A-rod has opted out of his contract: hopefully this doesn't lead to a swapping of free agent 3rd basemen between the Red Sox and Yanks.

Rotoworld: Alex Rodriguez notified the Yankees on Sunday that he's opting out of the final three years of his $252 million contract, SI.com's Jon Heyman is report.

http://rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&id=1981