- Overbay out with a hand injury & will have another surgery
- Downs out with a foot injury
- Glaus had successful surgery
- BJ Ryan has begun light throwing
"McGowan fanned nine, including David Ortiz three times, and he didn't walt a batter, though he still ended up throwing 122 pitches. With the way he's tightened up his command, he has a realistic chance of being one of the AL's top 10 pitchers next season. Too bad there's that same realistic chance that he'll spend half of the year on the DL because of the way the Jays ride their top starters."
And while his slugging is down this year he actually has more XBHs this year than last year (54 vs. 50).
Why would you say this? Just curious. I don't know much about rotoworld, but if they have a reputation for bias or exaggeration it would be interesting to know.
From where I sit, there is zero reason to have McGowan and Marcum keep on running out there. If having them continue to pitch this season increases their injury risk even by a slight amount, I am all for shutting them down under whatever pretense necessary. There is nothing left for them to prove this year - they are both solid ML starters, adding a few lines to their counting stats won't really make a difference either way at this point.
A bit off-topic, but does anyone know who the most likely candidates are to replace Brantley as hitting coach (if he's fired in the off-season)?
I'd want Moises Alou, but he just can't stop hitting. Player-coach maybe?
Who would have thought that Thomas would have been one of the most durable members of the team this year?
Thomas had a bad month of May but other than that has been relatively productive or even good in the other months.
The only big difference from last year is that of his extra base hits, more of them are staying in the park while last year he had more than twice as many homeruns as doubles (I think). That may have been an indication that a decline in power should have been expected. But depending on how things play out the last couple of weeks, he may still get to 30 on the year and his RBIs aren't bad considering people aren't getting on base ahead of him.
For a guy who's been the target of a lot of scorn, he's still one of the only offensive pluses on the team. Let's just hope he can turn in a better April/May next year.
Frank will likely finish this season with close to 700 plate appearances, meaning he'll only need 300+ next year for his $10m option for 2009 to vest.
In a move of good faith, the Jays could guarantee the option this offseason (for a little less) and sign Stairs, pledging him some additional ABs at DH (maybe 250).
Given that his contract has a vesting option conditioned on PA's, it's arguable that he's elected not to pull himself from the lineup this season when he's not been in game condition. I'm not saying that I know this to be the case, but one can speculate that this may have been the case early in the season, when he wasn't performing. Perhaps physical woes were partly to blame and perhaps the structure of his contract was what kept him in the lineup.
On the question of high pitch counts and when to pull a pitcher from a game: isn't it possible that the Jays believe there is some benefit to stretching out their top pitchers and letting them throw 120 pitches in some games? Isn't there a potential justification that an occasional high pitch count can improve the strength, durability and power of a pitcher? Of course there is some risk attached to a 120-pitch game, but I don't believe this can be entirely a one-sided issue. There is surely some benefit to it as well. If it was so obvious that a high pitch count is dangerous, presumably all baseball teams would always pull a starting pitcher after 5 or 6 innings whenever he is losing or has a big lead. It doesn't seem plausible that you can improve a pitcher's performance by restricting him to 90 or 100 pitches in every game. I'm not an expert on this, but even in a gym workout you want to push yourself and not always limit yourself to a comfortable pace. Nobody improves their strength or conditioning or performance if you never push yourself to the edge of your abilities.
Also, the Jays surely have top-calibre medical specialists and trainers who are carefully watching their pitchers. I find it implausible that the Jays medical experts are entirely wrong and the casual observers in the stands are smarter about pitch counts and when to pull a pitcher.
2007 HR, MLB: 2.96 per 100 AB
2006 HR, Thomas: 8.37 per 100 AB
2007 HR, Thomas: 5.02 per 100 AB
MLB's HR rate drop is 8%. Thomas' is 40%. His HR rate is the lowest it has been since 1999.
Thomas was coming off foot surgery prior to 2006. I'm thinking that that is what contributed to his insanely low double tally (11!). What we're seeing this year is the speedy Frank Thomas. I'm not convinced his lost homeruns are becoming doubles.
Generally I realy like Rotoworld. When I played fantasy ball it was always my first stop 10 times a day. I have found the site to be generally unbiased. I think for a smalll team analysts they do a pretty remarkable job following 30 teams plus minor league prospects.
That said, I beleive they have missed the boat on McGowan, though to be fair the jury should be still out. Like a lot of SABR guys I think they have a difficult time getting past the numbers and sometimes fail on the projection aspects and particular circumstances of player development. They have never been high on him. Just look back at their comments. It was the same last year and the season before.
These days there's a lot of love for McGowan on this site, but that wasn't always the case. Two plus years ago there were few or nearly no McGowan boosters here. Hindsight is truly 20 / 20.
I'm sure McGowan is the real deal, but he will need to be very good again next season to prove it and seal the deal.
1. Is there evidence that pitchers who have had Tommy John surgery are more fragile and should have lower pitch counts? A couple of posts have suggested this idea and I wonder about how factual it is. How fragile are pitchers after this kind of surgery? Has anyone ever looked at this question?
2. In having McGowan pitch the ninth yesterday, no one seems to have brought up the issue of the bullpen being a little tired after the Baltimore series, especially the Sunday game. Surely it is a reasonable position for a manager to leave a pitcher in who is looking very strong to give his bullpen a rest after a game like Sundays. I don't know who was available. I guess Josh Towers was but I don't think he has had a lot of success with Boston.
It doesn't seem plausible that you can improve a pitcher's performance by restricting him to 90 or 100 pitches in every game. I'm not an expert on this, but even in a gym workout you want to push yourself and not always limit yourself to a comfortable pace. Nobody improves their strength or conditioning or performance if you never push yourself to the edge of your abilities.
Throwing a baseball at 90+ mph is different from your average strength workout. During a weight lifting exercise you slowly warm up to the point where you're taxing your muscles at 90% or more of their capacity. If done correctly, there are small breakdowns in muscle tissue that rebuild themselves given proper rest and nutrition into a bigger, stronger structure. Thus a properly done workout results in stronger muscles...but even this has relatively few repetitions...it's not more repetitions that grow the muscle but rather heavier weight.
Unlike say a bench press, throwing a baseball at 90% to 100% effort puts a strain on the shoulder and elbow they aren't naturally designed to take. For the most part the amount of 'strengthening' you can do your shoulder and elbow to take this kind of torque for 100+ repetitions is limited. Indeed there are some important pieces of the shoulder like the labrum and certain ligaments in the elbow that cannot be strengthened at all. Like an automotive part, there's a fixed amount of wear and tear they can take before they break down.
What players CAN control is their muscular strength and endurance, their cardiovascular fitness, and their balance and focus. These are things that can help them maintain good mechanics for longer periods of time and more repetitions...this helps minimize the wear and tear on the parts that cannot be strengthened. It still doesn't eliminate risk, it just minimizes it.
So yes, I can believe that there are some people who have more wear resistant parts than others. There are some people who are in better physical shape and have more stamina. But most pitchers tend to put a uniform amount of effort in every pitch. Most starters throw their pitches with at least 90% effort regardless of how hard they actually throw. Short relievers might get much closer to 100% effort.
So the relative wear on every pitcher is similar...there can be some pitchers who can handle more pitches and others who can't handle the average amount. But there aren't any starters who can consistently tax their arms 20% to 40% more than others. If there were then 120 pitch counts would be much more commonplace and sites like Baseball Prospectus who look closely at pitcher workloads and abuse wouldn't have an issue with consistently high pitch counts.
May - 86-117 pitches, 491 total, 5 starts=98.2 per start
June - 67-109 pitches, 557 total, 6 starts=92.8 per start
July - 95-112 pitches, 523 total, 5 starts=104.6 per start
Aug - 95-106 pitches, 500 total, 5 starts=100 per start
Sept - 99-122 pitches, 434 total, 4 starts=108.5 per start
Not a big shift that is visible there on a per sart basis, although his range per start has dropped, 95 or more per start since June 24th, 112 was his recent peak before this last game not counting the 117 in May.
His last start was just 99 pitches so perhaps they figure he has shown he can handle 110 per start.
Note: July and September are his two big pitches/start month. His ERA those months are 2.78 and 2.40. Between those two months his ERA was 3.62 (not bad).
To me it is clear the Jays are viewing McGowan as Halladay #2 and hoping to make him a rotation horse in '08. Lets hope he does it.
If pitching is so dangerous -- if each pitcher has a fixed number of pitches before his arm gets worn out like an automobile part -- then the Jays should have shut down their entire pitching staff in August when they realized they had no realistic chance at the playoffs. They should have told their entire pitching staff to stop pitching, and they should have replaced them all with minor-league arms. That's the logical extension of the argument that the pitching arm is the same as an automobile part. If it was true, then every pitcher would be preserved in a glass case and never used except when the team has a chance at the playoffs.
then the Jays should have shut down their entire pitching staff in August when they realized they had no realistic chance at the playoffs.
There is the minor issue of needing to field a team that the public will pay to watch.
Marcum
90 or fewer pitches in his 3 September starts
75-108 in 6 August starts 92.6 per start
83-112 in 6 July starts 97.3 per start
69-109 in 5 June starts 93.6 per start
78-101 in 4 May starts 89.75 per start
Very low totals, cracking 110 just the one time. Comparing him to McGowan you can see why the Jays are frustrated. McGowan looks like a horse, Marcum like a 5 and out guy.
Litsch has a peak of 106, reaching 100 just 4 times. He has averaged 86.88 pitches per start over 17 starts. He also is the youngest in the rotation and had the lowest expectations coming into this year. I suspect he will continue to be treated with kid gloves.
AJ has been over 100 in 6 of his 7 starts since returning, being at 90 for just his first start. 110+ for his last 4 starts in a row. 105.1 pitches per start average.
Halladay has been under 95 pitches just twice all year. 5 with 110+ in a row before his 100 pitch game last time. He had a 4 game stretch at the end of July like that too which was followed by 2 games where he allowed 4 ER. Average on the year is 107.3 pitches per start.
Clearly the Jays want their starters to go 7-9 innings each time out and figure Halladay, AJ, and McGowan can do just that with 120 or fewer pitches. OK, AJ can do 7 with that.
A big question is how long a pitcher can do that, and the evidence is mixed. Guys used to do it in the 80's and earlier, with some holding up and others collapsing. The key is figuring out who can hold up and who cannot. Halladay appears to be a 'can', AJ a 'cannot'. McGowan is showing signs of also being a 'can'.
As to long term studies by major groups out there, it is hard to do as data is limited. Pitch count data is not easily found for most pitchers for more than the past 10 years, thus we cannot see how/why some guys endured and others did not. Nolan Ryan was known for 200 pitch games and his arm was rebuilt in the 60's and lasted until the 90's. Clemens is listed as averaging over 120 per start in 89, 94, 96, and 97 (in Toronto) (via ESPN).
As with all things, I guess we'll see.
100 pitches is not a limit for a starter, it's a minimum. It's what you expect out of a starter and a rough point to look for signs of fatigue beginning to set in. If a starter leaves a couple of pitches up at the 50 pitch mark, you think nothing of it. If he does it at 100, the bullpens become a beehive.
I'd think nothing of leaving our starters out there for 110 pitches, but accumulating consecutive 110+ games is a bit worrisome if there aren't some rest days thown into the mix.
It's not just a question of working your starter until he starts showing visible signs of fatigue and control problems. I would argue waiting that long is putting him at risk. I think the optimal usage is to use him reasonably, preferably pulling him before he starts reaching the point of exhaustion where his mechanics are faltering and he's at increased risk. Though by this criteria there wasn't much of an issue letting McGowan throw the 9th as he still looked quite strong.
You also adjust this day by day. If a guy doesn't have his mechanics for a certain game he could rack up 80+ pitches by the 4th inning (as Marcum did in a recent start). There's definate cause to pull the guy early here because he's probably struggling and he's gotten tired already. Throwing 25 pitches per inning for three innings could tire you more than the same 75 pitches thrown over 5 or 6 innings with rest in between frames.
So it's not just sending a guy out there and looking for 100 pitches minimum. Whether he can meet or exceed 100 pitches depends on how effective he's being. Being efficient and going deep into a game are closely linked.
Marcum's clearly not comparable physically to Halladay, Burnett, and McGowan either in stature or stuff. So I don't understand the frustration with Marcum. He's a smaller body, short windup guy, he'll get tired but with work he could also improve. He's a 3rd round pick and has done a darn sight better than any of the other pitchers this front office has picked through 2006, including three first/supplemental round picks.
Marcum's pitched 6 or more innings in 17 out of his 21 starts, 5 times 7 or more innings. He's done what can reasonably be expected for a guy in his first full season of starting at any level (full season meaning a year that lasts beyond August). By comparison, Janssen experienced exactly the same fatigue issues last year and only pitched 6 or more innings in just 9 of 17 starts. Yet you hear people excited about him possibly being in the rotation next year.
Sometimes people look for what a player doesn't do when what he does do is actually not bad.
But he didn't have a back injury until he'd recorded over a month's worth of starts at the major league level. So it's hard to say whether it was a freak occurance or whether it was partially a product of his drop-and-drive delivery. I'm not sure if anyone puts as much effort into their delivery as Janssen does.
Does Gibbons know he's getting fired and is trying to blow the arms of every starting pitcher as a parting shot.
A.J. came out after his 124th pitch tonight.
Well it's clear that whatever the philosophy around pitch counts was, it's out the window, at least where these big three starters are concerned. There's not really much to say about it other than I hope everyone holds together this year and next year.
One thing these high pitch counts has done is make for some freaking awesome games in the last two days - perhaps this is even part of the equation JP has looked at. We have to remember that winning games is not his only goal: he also needs to provide a good product for the consumer.
Personally, I think the Blue Jays are being short-sighted with their starters. AJ has been all over the DL in his career. This year he landed on the DL after a series of high pitch count starts. It looks as though he may be finally on track. Why not bring in some combination of Janssen/Downs/Wolfe/Accardo for the ninth (after AJ had thrown 112 pitches)? The bullpen has been effective all year and was rested tonight. Besides, the Jays are out of contention.
I think one reason the starters are pitching so deep into games is that the offense has been so pathetic. So the organization has been trying to wring out wins by overextending their starting pitchers. But this isn't the whole story--there have been games where the Jays have been comfortably ahead and Gibbons has left his starter in.
All that aside, great team win tonight.
- The weather has been cooler. Pitchers become fatigued more slowly in cooler weather.
- McGowan's game only lasted 2:13: while he was doing more work, he wasn't doing it for a long time. (I seem to recall reading that this is why the number of complete games has gone down - when the average game time went from two hours to three hours, starting pitchers were having to work 50% longer hours.)
- The bullpen was exhausted.
- The Jays were playing a contender, and were therefore required to try their hardest to win.
What I find interesting about the workload discussion here is the fixation on pitch count. I can't imagine that any two pitchers are identical, and the game conditions are different from game to game. Sometimes I think we use pitch count because it's easy to see. But why is 100 or 120 a magical number? Is that the most important thing to look at, or just the easiest? Is there any visual evidence that the pitcher is tired? Is he losing velocity or break? Have his mechanics changed? Does he look like he's laboring? Is he getting hit harder at the end than the beginning?
Watching the Red Sox broadcast last night Jerry Remy noted that he couldn't remember a pitcher with so much success with the curve ball as Burnett last night - I believe he said 10 or the 11 strikeouts were on the curve.
ESPN is reporting that one of the top Cuban players, a power hitting shortstop (Alexei Ramirez) will be filing for MLB free agency. Obviously it's tough to tell the quality of a guy from Cuba, but he certainly sounds like he's worth taking a look at.
Bill James did a study in the Neyer/James Guide To Pitchers that compared pairs of pitchers that were similar in every way except BP's Pitcher Abuse Points (as then defined -- I don't know if the formula has been refined). James found that the "abused" pitchers were neither more likely to see their performance decline nor more likely to get injured than their "non-abused" comp.
One problem with pitch counts is that there isn't a linear relationship between load/abuse and pitches thrown. Someone who pitches 105 pitches isn't necessarily worked 5% harder than a starter lifted after 100; pre-game and between-innings warmups might be very different, weather (as Dave mentioned) matters, the length of innings and amount of stress matters, and so does post-game and off-day arm maintenance. Assuming a direct relationship between pitch count and pitcher workload is like assuming your body only ever burns the number of calories displayed on the treadmill after your workout.
Another problem is that pitching injuries are more often violent rather than cumulative. Ordinary wear and tear is much less likely to land a pitcher on the DL than a "pop," whether or not the pitcher hears it at the time. Then again, pitch counters will argue, legitimately, that a tired pitcher is more likely to suffer from poor mechanics and thus more likely to suffer a "pop."
All that being said, I don't like throwing McGowan out there for 120 pitches. Burnett and Halladay do it regularly, but Dustin doesn't, and pitchers often say that it's especially stressful to throw more pitches than to what they're accustomed. The problem with Monday's game is that there weren't a lot of options in a meaningful game. The bullpen was pretty gassed. Then again, it was a five-run lead, and someone like Banks could have held down the fort.
The bullpen was pretty gassed.
You'd think this almost unimaginable in this day of 7-man bullpens, especially post Sept 1 when that 7 becomes 8 or 9.
I would love to hear the organization's philosophy (which appears to have really taken hold the past couple of months) on this trend of pushing the starters. Conceding that they almost certainly have information that we don't, I'd be willing to listen objectively to the rationale. I am hopeful that it is more profound than Gibbons unilaterally deciding that he wants to get his starters W's (though I don't believe that Gibbons has enough latitude to make a practise of this).
Is it possible the Jays are planning to peddle Burnett this offseason?
Its the only rational explanation I can think of for racking up his pitch counts during meaningless late season games given his injury record.
I am a moderate on the pitch count question. When the Jays sent Dave Stieb out to throw 125-130 pitches regularly in 1982-83 at age 24-25, I am not going to suggest that there is evidence that this affected his career length. He was young and healthy, and because he began his career as an outfielder, the load on his arm as a teen was negligible.
But, TJ is different. The only power pitching starter that I am aware of who has put together more than 2 good seasons after TJ surgery is John Smoltz, and he had a 5 year relief break. Burnett and McGowan both have had TJ, and Burnett has had several significant trips to the DL since. In my view, having Burnett throw 124 pitches when you are out of contention is entirely unreasonable, as it adds to the risk of a DL trip next year without benefit.
There have been studies of post-TJ pitchers, but none which separate out by role and type. There is no question that there have been successful power pitching relievers (Rivera, Gagne sort of) and successful control artist starters (Tommy John, David Wells), but what the Jays are attempting with Burnett and McGowan has been tried before a number of times, and the best case scenario is really Matt Morris.
Could someone with knowledge of the day to day operations of big league clubs kindly enlighten me with regards to the following topic?
I have always been somewhat dismayed that the vast majority of the focus centers on the handling of pitchers in game and that situation is essentially deemed the sole casual factor in determining a pitcher’s health. I question what percentage of a pitcher’s total workload, given a normal 5 day rotation, does 100-120 pitches comprise? Expanding that focus, how would 3500 pitches over the course of a season reflect on the total amount of work when considering not only in season work but off-season training programs and spring training?
Have the approaches to these non-game scenarios changed much over the course of the last 10, 20, or 30 years? Is there any standardization or is it fairly divergent in nature, based more on club and individual philosophies? One would think that with a lack of anecdotal evidence pointing to a set of definitive factors based on pitch totals, that more time would be invested in researching a correlation based on other areas. Perhaps this has already been tried and I am simply not aware of it (wouldn’t be the first time)?
Related to the above, does anyone know how a person might research the injury rates of Japanese pitchers? The approach in Japan to handling pitchers is quite contrary to standard practices in the Western World and I would be curious to compare not only rates of injury but overall longevity and determine if they differ significantly with what has been chronicled in MLB.
I know it's been said before, but all I could think about through most of the game was that I can't believe that J.P is bringing back Gibbons and essentially the exact same team. I supported J.P. even into last season, but I'm really starting to lose my patience with him. I'm so tired of this being a mediocre team.
if you take his post all-star numbers only, he's been rather mediocre (4.74 ERA, .273 BAA)
Had he logged a 4.74 ERA for the entire season, the team still would have reaped rich dividends for the paltry $350K they are paying him. The AL ERA is 4.52, relievers included. I would guess that starters average out at about 4.7. Ain't no shame in being average for little more than the league minimum (and he's only been as "bad" as average for half a season). The team has plenty of players making millions who are failing to be league average at their respective positions.
When you contrast Marcum's 2007 season with what reasonably could have been asked for from him, the team has come out way ahead. I'm not sure that there are any specific off-season preparations he could have made to ready himself for a 180-inning season. And maybe because of his stature and pitching style, he figures to max out as a 30 GS/180 IP Ted Lilly type -- which no small amount of teams is willing to pay $10M per year for.
Marcum's terrific first half may have created unrealistic long term expectations. He's a fine starter with some gopher ball issues. If he can take steps to lower the HR rate and expand on this year's workload, he'll continue to be an extremely cheap contributor for the next four seasons, delivering a value/dollar ratio matched by few on the team.
And what makes you think he's bringing back essentially the exact same team? Ricciardi says this type of thing all the time, and it means nothing to him - he doesn't care about telling the media the truth. Don't you recall that statement he made earlier this year about it "not being a lie if the team knows the truth"?
Yesterday the Jays won one of the most awesome games of the year, and all you can do is complain about how the other team lost it. Maybe you should start questioning what exactly you're looking for from a baseball game.
This team has looked pretty mediocre this season. I think that changes should be made (or at least considered in the offseason). Hiring a new manager might bring something different out of the team. I don't know anything about the team chemistry, I just think their offense is lifeless.
And what makes you think he's bringing back essentially the exact same team? Ricciardi says this type of thing all the time, and it means nothing to him - he doesn't care about telling the media the truth. Don't you recall that statement he made earlier this year about it "not being a lie if the team knows the truth"?
Ricciardi lied about Ryan's injury, but to the best of my memory, he's always been pretty honest about player moves. He was extremely upfront about going after Burnett, Ryan, Giles, Meche and Lilly etc.
Yesterday the Jays won one of the most awesome games of the year, and all you can do is complain about how the other team lost it. Maybe you should start questioning what exactly you're looking for from a baseball game.
The Jays offense has looked unimpressive so frequently this year. And up until Gagne walked 3 last night, it looked like the same old story. I was really happy that they won, but I think the game illustrated the overall poor performance of the offense this year, even with the nice 8th inning comeback.
Although the offense has been tepid all year, you can't really complain about last night's performance. Without a healthy Glaus and Overbay, the lineup is a lot weaker than normal. And they did score 4 runs and win the game. For me, the enigma is Wells (although the injury might explain the off year). His OBP is .303 and his SLG is .404. That is really, really bad. If he duplicates that next year, this team isn't going anywhere.
From NY Times: Kerry Wood story
For all the attention paid to the care and feeding of young pitchers these days, there are no indications that the number of injuries has been significantly reduced. As reported by the American Journal of Sports Medicine, 49 percent of the 349 players who spent time on the disabled list in 1998 were pitchers. According to Rick Wilton’s Baseball Injury Report (probably the most comprehensive compendium of major-league baseball injuries publicly available), there were about the same number of players on the D.L. in 2006 — 347 — but the number of those who were pitchers had risen to 69 percent. To get an even better idea of how much time pitchers lose to injury, consider that 244 of the pitchers who played in the majors in 2006 have been on the disabled list at least once in the past five years. Their injury time adds up to 27,351 days, the equivalent of 149 lost seasons.
Although the act of pitching a baseball repeatedly is exceedingly stressful, doctors now generally accept that it is not the act itself that causes injury nearly so much as pitching while fatigued. A study by the American Sports Medicine Institute shows that pitchers between the ages of 16 and 20 who often throw with arm fatigue are 36 times more likely to be seriously injured than those who do not. In 20 years of research for the institute, Fleisig calls the fatigue factor “the single strongest statistical finding” he has ever encountered. Fatigue can cause a pitcher to overthrow and to alter his mechanics to compensate for the loss in power. This is why recovering from injuries is so precarious, because a pitcher often tries to find an arm slot in his delivery that doesn’t hurt, which in turn leads to using joints and muscles in new and unfamiliar ways. And it’s why pitching while hurt, which Wood has been doing throughout his career, may be the most devastating thing you can do.
The tried-and-true method of preventing young pitchers from throwing when they are fatigued has been to keep them on strict pitch counts in the minor leagues — 100 pitches per game has become something of an industry standard. But there is an intriguing school of thought emerging that holds that one of the problems with today’s young pitchers is that they do not throw enough in the minors before getting called up. As the thinking goes, pitch counts prevent young pitchers from learning to pitch while tired, to pace themselves during a game, to get out of jams without simply handing the ball to the bullpen. “We condition [young pitchers] to develop pitches,” says Nolan Ryan, a Hall of Famer who owns two of the Houston Astros’ minor-league clubs. “We condition them to pitch a certain number of innings. I don’t know if we do a real good job of conditioning them to compete. Let them have a long inning and get out of it.” Ryan says that when he pitched, he never wanted to put the game in anyone else’s hands. “When you talk about that, they look at you like you’re from another planet
Theres no question Gagne gave the team the opportunity get back in the game last night. He nearly hit Zaun, but Zaun ducked out of the way and eventually walked, then he nearly hit Adams, thank christ he didn't as Adams would double in two runs.
This Adams guy has been a really nice addition to the roster. Good call by the manager in getting him another AB.
Recent TJ success story, Cole Hamels was recently sidelined with elbow soreness and missed a month of action. Two things I found interesting here:
- He wasn't logging any high pitch counts in games leading up to the strain, going 89-108-110-89-102-101 six preceding starts.
- In light of Ricciardi's comments about Burnett "pitching through the discomfort" when he went on to the DL, I found this quote quite interesting:
"Some people can pitch through it. I just wanted to make sure it wasn't anything serious so knowing that, I can pitch through it," Hamels said. "I know this isn't going to be anything serious."
Most pitchers will tell you that it all depends. 85 pitches in a tight game, with a couple of dicey and dangerous innings, is generally much, more tiring and stressful than 130 pitches in a laugher.
I consider myself a knowledgeable baseball fan. I have subscriptions to various baseball related sites. I'm a Math teacher, so I have a good understanding of statistics. I'm also in a few fantasy leagues that involve deep minor league systems.
I'm not bragging, but just saying that I understand that BA and wins are not very good metrics for rating hitters or pitchers.
Having said all of that, when I turn on the TV to watch a Jays game on SportsNet or TSN I feel like I'm watching some kind of dumbed down version of what I should be watching. Why is that? Don't we deserve better than what we are getting? I realize that Pat Tabler and Rance Mulliniks actually played the game, but their commentary is full of the banal and just basically gives me the feeling that I'm about to throw up in my mouth. (not even mentioning Jamie Campbell or Rod (shudder) Black)
Now I realize that Joe Morgan is just as bad, and he's on a national US network, but still. I know what adjusted OPS+ is, I realize that wins are a pointless stat, and I really want to watch a telecast where I can be stimulated, instead of watching a telecast that makes me bang my head against a wall.
Why is it like that? Are most of the people that watch Jays games really that ignorant when it comes to baseball? Is there an alternative universe that carries the kind of telecasts that I want to watch? Sorry, needed to rant.
And how about Russ ****ing Adams! What an incredible 3 games this has been! I remember that last year he got a game winner against Papelbon as well - I believe the first blown save (run allowed?) for Papelbon in '06.
Confidence is a lovely thing to behold.
Adams is making a prophet out of JP.
I think both of these guys are major league hitters that just need a chance. Just play them....................
Adams actually can hit righties. Hill has said he prefers 2B, but Hill's a gamer and he's spent most of his pro and college career at SS. Gotta put the team ahead of the player.
When Hill and Adams came up, I actually though Adams was the better player - I hope this is a good sign and not just a hot streak.
One suggestion for John Gibbons, on steal attempts have the shortstop take the throw at the bag. Aaron Hill can remain in his position at second to stop the ball going into centrefield.
But seriously, Zaun continues to tail his throws towards second base and needs to upgrade his throwing over the off-season. The pitchers do get some criticism, particularly Dustin McGowan and AJ Burnett, but some of those steals could have been outs with better throws.
And Zaun, having thrown out 10/80 runners, may be better off not throwing at all right now. Of his 8 errors, I think most have been on bad throws. Zaun did have the hand injury, so I hope he can at least get back to his previously below average, but not terrible, self. His bad throwing does not appear to be a case of him getting too old to pop up and get in position, rather the throws themselves have just been terrible. Hand injuries, as Overbay (and anyone else who has ever had one) can tell you, take for ever to heal.
What, like what Josh Towers did over the last two months of 2005?
Why not. Marcum might as well be the new Josh Towers, which means his best hope is to be the new Brad Radke. These are all right-handers with very good control who don't overpower anyone and are very vulnerable to the home run. Some minor differences - Marcum doesn't throw as hard as Towers and his control isn't quite as good. But - and this is a big, big but, so big I want to write BUTT! - Marcum actually has an effective off-speed pitch. Towers doesn't - his repertoire is hard stuff - fastball and slider - all the time. Because he can't mess with the hitter's timing, his command has to be well nigh perfect. Whereas Marcum might have the best changeup seen around here since Jimmy Key.
And Zaun, having thrown out 10/80 runners, may be better off not throwing at all right now.
Base stealing has been up this year, especially success rate. It's been said the break even rate is at around 75% for steals and that's what the entire AL/NL is doing in terms of success rate. Catchers for whatever reason are having a hard time throwing runners out.
Zaun's not even the worst. I read an article recent that had Josh Bard (I think) catching only 9 out 112 runners. But you may have a point about eating the ball unless there's a good shot.
I don't think Zaun and Bard are good throwers or anything but percentages that bad, a lot of it must have to do with their pitching staffs. Remember that decisions to steal are influenced by the catcher but mainly by timing the pitcher's delivery to home. The Jays just have a lot of big windup, slow delivery guys. Though I'm not going to complain with a team ERA in the 3.90's.
Russ tends to go on these streaks with the bat which give an inkling of his first round potential. Stretches of not doing much and then boom, a 5 rbi game, a 7 or 8 rbi series, quality at bats and then actually doing something with a hittable pitch when it arrives.
If he could just play short at something resembling an average level of ability, I think you could ride out his ups and downs with the bat to see if he ever settled down. Whether at second or short, I'd be worried about his defence as an everyday player. And despite being useful with the bat, I don't think he has the oomph or OBP to play a corner position (IF or OF) everyday.
He does tend to have late season surges that give annual hope. As it is, his best use is probably as a super sub and a pinch hitting/running option off the bench. Every player looks great hitting a grand slam. Consistency over a long time is what's key.
Russ Adams, age 26/27, in his 3rd year in AAA: 262/333/401
Marcum's terrific first half may have created unrealistic long term expectations.
Why not. Marcum might as well be the new Josh Towers, which means his best hope is to be the new Brad Radke.
I wasn't clear on my position. I am bullish on Marcum's future. I just don't think that his pre-ASB Santana imitation should get us thinking he's got a future as a front-of-the-rotation starter. He may -- nothing in life is ever a certainty -- but I think he caps out as a mid-rotation starter. That said, that would make him an extremely valuable asset, especially for the next four seasons, when his performance and cost figure to be grossly out of step.
If he grows up to be Brad Radke, so much the better. I'd be happy to have under-estimated him.
The Jays need a solid backup plan for the 4/5 slots and also need to be ready for the 10 starts you expect AJ to miss. Josh Banks is obviously part of the backup, Ty Taubenheim is probably another. Chacin is the #1 backup, Purcey (if healthy) could get into the mix by mid-season. Romero also could be mixed in if he gets his act together.
Will they get Janssen ready for a role? I doubt it as he has settled in nicely as a middle man and there won't be an open rotation slot to start 2008 (figure the current 5 have earned a shot at it starting '08).
I don't see trades, but I do see lots of Ohka types signed for AAA.
One key question for 2008 is whether Ryan and League will bounce back from their injuries. If Ryan and League can return to form, and if Accardo and Downs stay solid, there's really no need at all for Janssen to stay in the bullpen. He would be much more valuable as a starter, especially since Litsch could perhaps benefit from a bit more time in the minors.
For the rotation next year, I see four solid starters (Doc, AJ, McGowan and Marcum). The 5th job will probably be fought out in spring training between Litsch, Janssen, Chacin and perhaps Banks. In my view, Janssen would be the favorite in that fight, leaving Litsch and Chacin to be held in reserve for the inevitable AJ injuries.
Could Russ Adams be the new Rance Mulliniks who had his breakout season at the age of 27?
Its not uncommon for a guy being demoted to play poorly. Im sure there was some depression, and a lot of days when he couldnt get the demotion out of his head.
I would say Adam deserves to be on this team in a back up role, and let him push Johnny Mac.
Mulliniks was great at taking the pitch down and away to left-centre for a double. If Adams can learn that skill, he'll have a major league career. I still think that his best chance is as a left-fielder leadoff type. He's got more speed, less arm and a little less pure hitting ability than Mulliniks. An Adams/Johnson platoon might work with Lind groomed to be Overbay's successor.
A nice idea - a lefty hitting shortstop who makes a splashy arrival in the majors, then struggles with the glove, stops hitting, and scuffles for a few years before re-emerging as a very useful ball player.
But a:) Mulliniks was much younger than Adams (he was 21 when he came up with the Angels) and b) he was a much more impressive minor league hitter. Rance hit .343 in the PCL at age 23. Granted, it was the PCL but he still led the league. Part of Mulliniks' problem was that the Angels at the time had trouble believing any young baseball playuer could possibly help them (they came up with Dickie Thon and Carney Lansford around the same time and got rid of all of them.)
I've always liked Adams, but I don't think he has that kind of upside as a hitter. However, I will not be surprised if by this time next year he's sharing the shortstop job with McDonald.
Looking at his entire minor league record, it should have been obvious that Mulliniks was an excellent bet to be a good major league hitter. It's amazing that both the Angels and Royals gave up on him, but this was before sabermetrics really took hold.
Russ's age 23 season was pretty good too.
.288/.351/.408 in 483 AB in AAA Syracuse.
.306/.359/.528 in 72 AB in Toronto.
The comparison is fairly good - as far as comparisons go - with Rance projecting to be a slightly better hitter with more power. The ball's in your court now, Russ.
Wolfe is a sleeper candidate for the #5 starter role. He's really risen through the ranks since the Jays acquired him from the Brewers (he was supposed to be a throw-in in the Overbay trade). Arnsberg recently said he thinks Wolfe has the build and repetoire to succeed as a starter.
Another interesting question for next year is: who is going to close games in April and May? Despite all the hype about BJ being ahead of schedule (Victor Zambrano, anyone?), a midseason return may be more realistic. And even if he can pitch out of spring training, he may not be at full strength for a while. Meanwhile, Accardo has had an outstanding year and seems to have returned to form (he was lights out last night, complementing his fastball with a great slider).
Hear hear. Anyone who has read a lot of Bill James will appreciate just how huge a piece of information age is when predicting a hitter's development. Mulliniks posting an OPS+ of 93 in MLB at age 21, along with his prior minor league success, screams out that you've likely got a major league hitter on your hands.
A pocketful of impressive September AB's by a 27-year old Adams doesn't quite bellow out the same message. It's possible that the Adams optimists in the crowd will be proven right, but using Mulliniks as a comp just ain't right.
I know Janssen was recently asked which role he prefered, and he said he was open to either. He also said he'd prepare himself this offseason to be a starter, and would pitch as reliever if it's best for the team.
I agree about BJ - I really hope the Jays don't rush him like they did Zambrano this year. I understand that it usually takes 12-18 months to get back into pitching shape, and often another year to be truly effective again. I'd like to see Accardo closing again for the first half, with Janssen/Downs ready to step in if needed.
Yup. Our man from the Group of Seven just noted Adams' age 23 year in Syracuse. Here's his complete line, along with a couple of other players from the same league that same season who had similar seasons.
Player Age Tm G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SB CS RC RC/G Pos
Player A 25 COL 130 447 79 130 32 1 7 59 31 56 .291 .337 .414 .751 2 4 61 4.85 SS
Russ Adams 23 SYR 122 483 58 139 37 3 5 54 45 62 .288 .348 .408 .756 6 2 69 5.09 SS
Player B 21 BUF 101 418 73 120 23 8 8 51 42 72 .287 .352 .438 .790 15 10 63 5.22 OF
The 21 year old is the guy you're going to want. As it turned out, he grew up to be Grady Sizemore. The 25 year old is well remembered around here for the Felix Escalona Game, but nowhere else.
Hear hear. Anyone who has read a lot of Bill James will appreciate just how huge a piece of information age is when predicting a hitter's development. Mulliniks posting an OPS+ of 93 in MLB at age 21, along with his prior minor league success, screams out that you've likely got a major league hitter on your hands.
At age 21, Russ Adams was debuting out of college in the NYPL to the tune of a .933 OPS. He was the 16th ranked propect in the draft by BA. Are we supposed to penalize him because he wasn't putting up a .694 OPS in the pros at that time? Nobody is suggesting here that Adams is going to be a star, but when you don't have the Yankees payroll, if you can fill a bench position without hitting up a FA, it's a good idea.
Adams has the patience and bat control to put up a .740 OPS as a bench player. That would cost $3m on the open market.
He'd be nice and cheap for the Jays for the next few seasons.
The 21 year old is the guy you're going to want. As it turned out, he grew up to be Grady Sizemore.
I'm not sure what cherry picking stats is supposed to accomplish with respect to the argument that Adams can be a MLB bat.
Adams has the patience and bat control to put up a .740 OPS as a bench player. That would cost $3m on the open market.
I see Adams more akin to a $300K Hector Luna than a $3M bench player, but that aside:
* Adams is 27
* his minor league career OPS is 752
* his major league career OPS is 698
I would suggest that the list of players who improve starting at age 27 is a short one. Could he morph into Tony Phillips? Sure. But the odds are not in his favour. Still, his presence isn't blocking anyone else so he'll almost certainly get his chance to play a lot in 2008, particularly with all the question marks surrounding Glaus.
My fear, as someone clearly much less optimistic about Adams than many here, was that his small sampling of September AB's would be so shiny and sparkly as to drown out the seemingly more convincing evidence that he's little more than a replacement level player.
As with any and all of my pessimistic remarks, I'll be more than happy to be proven wrong. No schadenfreude here.
Well, it summarizes what years of number crunching and analysis has rather conclusively proved: if you have two minor leaguers with similar productivity, but one is 25 years old and one is 21 - don't bet on the 25 year old to have the best career.
It obviously doesn't take much perception to fit Adams somewhere in between Sizemore and Escalona on the Spectrum of Goodness. But isn't anyone going to say I'm crazy for envisioning the possibility that Adams will emerge as a more or less regular at shortstop by this time next year? He'll begin by filling in for McDonald against some RH pitchers, probably when the fly ball starters are on the mound. He'll gradually take more and more of the job. Johnny Mac will replace him for defense if the Jays are winning, Adams will hit for McDonald if they're losing
Oh, I can see it all now!
Well said, Chuck. I've no problem with that. I just differ as to whether we know what Adams can be yet. As you said, few develop at that late an age - but some do, and Russ (as opposed to anyone else in Syracuse putting up similar hitting lines) looks like he might have the skills to still progress.
My whole issue is, whether we go and spend $3m on a super utility guy like Mackowiak and his .740 OPS and gritty style or whether we think Adams can be that guy for about one sixth of that. Remembering that not many contracts are coming off the books (a few million from Hinske and Koskie) and that Rios and Hill, among lesserlikes are going to Arb.
Well, it summarizes what years of number crunching and analysis has rather conclusively proved: if you have two minor leaguers with similar productivity, but one is 25 years old and one is 21 - don't bet on the 25 year old to have the best career.
Okay, but that was a bit of a sledgehammer - Sizemore. It's really difficult to compare highschoolers after three years of pro ball to college draftees after three years of pro ball. If they're at the same level (AAA), putting up the same stats, well you don't need years of statistical analysis.
Oh and by the way, Magpie, you're crazy! Like a fox!
Well, I was thinking - damn, Adams' AAA year really was pretty impressive. After all, Syracuse is a much, much tougher place to hit than anywhere in the PCL. But Mulliniks actually led the league. So I was wondering how Adams compared to the other guys in his league. And I found them sorted by batting average and PRESTO - there's Felix Escalona and Grady Sizemore!
It fell right into my lap, honest!
Mulliniks had a nice age 21 season but he scuffled for the next 5 years whenever he had an opportunity at the major league level including a very Adamsesque 1982 season with the Jays when he was 26. The PCL at that time was a more extreme hitters league than today and Mulliniks' played in Salt Lake, a hitter's heaven. Hell, Alfredo Griffin wasn't considered much of a hitting prospect after hitting .291 in the PCL as a 20 year old, so I'm not sure how great Mulliniks' numbers were. There are some similarities but I'm more hoping than expecting Adams to have that kind of career.
2007 Age 26-28 possible breakout season:
Willits, Mclouth, Hannahan, Rayburn, Schumaker, Hamilton, Kouzmanoff, Davis, Hopper, Lewis...
Or how about this list of Age27/28 rookies from 2004:
Holliday, DeJesus, Tracy, Bay, Laroche, Greene, Youkilis, Crosby....
(busts too, maybe 4 to 1, but some real stars in there)
Russ shouldn't be counted on to be a meaningful member of any future Jays roster and in my view every roster slot is meaningful.
If he does become useful in the future great, I just hope the club doesn't assume his utility in constructing next season's roster.
Must have been some filtering problems, with Bay and Greene coming up as rookies in their age 27 season. My apologies.
Or how about this list of Age27/28 rookies from 2004:
Holliday, DeJesus, Tracy, Bay, Laroche, Greene, Youkilis, Crosby....
Actual rookie ages:
Holliday (24), DeJesus (24), Tracy (24), Bay (24), Laroche (24), Greene (24), Youkilis (25), Crosby (24)
Have I misunderstood what you were conveying? None of these were rookies at age 27/28.
This rookie talk harkens back to a long ago thread about the advanced rookie ages for some Hall of Famers.
Mike Piazza - 24
Wade Boggs - 24
Edgar Martinez - 26 (sipping coffee at 24, not fulltime until 27, and most likely not a HoFer)
Any other HoFers get their start as late as age 24?
Off topic: some comments on the Nats' new digs. It looks to be a very hitter friendly park. Keeper league owners should buy low on Johnson and others.
Just last week, general manager Jim Bowden was talking about a September callup's power and said that a particular flyout "in RFK counts as a homer."
That's also why, after a recent batting practice at the $611 million new park along the Anacostia River in Southeast Washington, Church said: "We're going to be in heaven over there hitting. Wish we could do that now."
Two guys on the list who actually improved a little after age 27 are the middle infielders Aaron Miles (19th round pick) and Marco Scutaro (undrafted). If Adams has their careers even, he'll have done well (though he won't be earning $3M a year).
Nah, that's Homer Bush you're thinking of. For defense at short, Bush was to Adams what Adams is to McDonald.
It's a tad unlikely that Adams will ever again post an OPS+ of 166, but you just have to enjoy these moments when they come around. Otherwise you might as well get out of show business. Adams has already hit more home runs this season than Johnny Mac, and he's quite likely to end up having drawn more walks as well. He's driven in more runs than Jason Smith, Rey Olmedo, Hector Luna, Howie Clark, and Ryan Roberts combined in the 100 games that group played in as the Designated Utility Infielder. (He'll probably overtake Royce Clayton before the year is over.)
Dumb organizations worry themselves sick about what a player can't do, while smart organizations take advantage of what a player can do. When the Angels were dumb, they threw Rance Mulliniks under a bus because he wasn't a very good shortstop. The Blue Jays, who were pretty clever (and pretty desperate!) back then, took advantage of the fact that the man could swing a bat, assigned him less demanding defensive chores, and gave him a chance to rediscover his game.
So- JP was on the right track with these two (at least in the short run--we'll see how those contracts look in a couple of years). Obviously, things have worked out nicely for the Jays, who now have a promising (and much less expensive) rotation.
I like that, Magpie. There is indeed at least one thing Adams does adequately well, and that's hit righties. In his MLB career he is at 268/330/406 against them, and this year in the minors he is at 292/354/453 - more than good enough for a utility infielder and perhaps even for a starting second baseman. I really want to see Hill moved to short and Adams/Johnny Mac platooning at second - unless of course JP finds something more attractive in the offseason.
This is something of a rhetorical question since I don't think anyone here can answer it, but why then doesn't Josh Towers learn to throw a better change-up? If this was the difference between being an ok pitcher and a good pitcher you'd think it was worth the effort. I guess throwing a good change-up is not that easy, but I would imagine learning a better change-up is a lot more possible than learning to throw a better fastball.
This is totally off the top of my head, but he seems to be a similar case to Pedroia, who had the minor league record but not the tools and who also initally struggled at the major league level. I've also payed a lot of attention to Zobrist for fantasy baseball reasons, and he seems like a good risk.
Cuban baseball player Alexei Ramirez will seek Dominican citizenship and hopes to sign with a major league team by the end of October, his Florida-based agent said.
Ramirez, who hit 20 home runs and batted .335 with 68 RBI last season in Cuba, said his decision was about family, not politics.
"I do not consider myself a deserter. I took this step to be with my family," Ramirez told the Associated Press as he sat with wife and two young children at a Santo Domingo hotel.
Ramirez spent most of his seven years with Pinar del Rio as a second baseman and outfielder but hopes to sign as a shortstop to follow in the footsteps of favorite players Ozzie Smith, Rey Ordonez and Omar Vizquel. His agent, Jaime Torres, said at least six teams have already expressed interest.
http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/story/10363336
But I do think Litsch to the Rays is a worthwhile angle to pursue because of the hometown factor. Litsch and Brandon League(/Wolfe!/Frasor/Downs/Janssen?/Accardo?!?) for Reid Brignac and Sonnanstine, mayhaps? There's a pie-in-the-sky Baseball Trade Idea That Will Never Happen Because There's Too Much Upside All Over. I bet the Rays would do it for Litsch and Accardo, but removing the closer would put create loads of uncertainty for the Jays' 2008 pen, and nobody wants to watch John Gibbons handle an uncertain bullpen.
On an unrelated note, I don't care what the over/under on TB wins is next spring. I'm taking the over.
I thought that they were the best bet this year and they need to go 4-5 to get to 67 wins and the over. I thought mid 70s would be easy.
That being said, their defense this year is historically terrible: it's making even their pretty-good pitchers look bad. I just don't see them aquiring more starting pitchers when they have about six players in their five-man rotation next year already.
If the Rays are smart, they're /selling/ starting pitching. In defence-independent terms, they're about fourth in the Majors in starting pitching.
On their current major league roster, I am seeing 3/5 of a rotation (with a highly impressive 1-2). Are you seeing differently?
Would Frasor fetch Zobrist? Frasor would be their closer.
I was at this game last night, in the bleachers of Yankee Stadium, and I must admit, that bottom of the 9th was the most miserable baseball experience of my life. As soon as the first two batters reached I just had a feeling. Then the bleacher bums at Yankee Stadium started going crazy, and before you knew it, Scott Downs was in giving up the lead.
Extra innings were a nightmare... I didn't think there was any chance the Jays had to win, given their lineup matched up against the Yankees. It was fun to see Joba pitch; he's got a lot of talent.
Overbay and Hill barely missed home runs, but when Zaun finally jacked that out, it was an incredible feeling. Just to see 50,000 fans silenced.
<pre>
Ages BA OBP SLG lg OPS pos OPS
23-27 .257 .339 .351 .730 .680
28-38 .270 .385 .397 .746 .743
</pre>
As to Marcum (mentioned in another post), I'm pretty optimistic about his 2008. I think a lot of his issues of late stem from his fitness level. He looks like he's tired and his command is off a bit. His first 19 starts (114.1 IP) he posted a BB/9 of 2.28. Since then, it's 4.62 (5 GS/25.1 IP). Some of that might simply be a fluke due to pitch distribution. In the initial 19 starts he threw strikes 62.5% of the time and that's dropped down to 60% strikes since. I'm not sure whether a 2.5 percent drop in strikes thrown would account for a doubling of the BB/9 rate and I'm not adept enough at math (I can only count to 21 using my body as an abacus due to my gender and not any particular ability at arithmetic) to figure it out.
As mentioned, he’s got a nice changeup and I like the way his fastball breaks downward. He needs a bit better command of his breaking pitch, but hey--it’s just his first (semi) full season as a major league starter. I think he’s capable of 180-200 IP worth of 4.00-4.15 ERA pitching if he gets his fitness level up.
Best Regards
John
AAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHH!
I know there were probably reasons none of us know of for these choices. Still it seems crazy to have two guys who are starters who would've had as long as they needed to get warm in the 4th and you still choose to use everyone else (literally) before getting to them.
So, is either team calling up help for tomorrow? The Jays have now used 10 different relievers in the last two games while the Yankees have used 9 just today, 12 overall in 2 days. McGowan has shown the ability to go 9 and we really, really need it now. Moose has sucked for the Yankees a lot this year so lets hope and we might see Jeter pitch (OK, not a hope of that happening but it would be fun to see).
Today was done without our 500slg% guys, your avg yankee fan is dismal over the thought of McGowan, Burnett, Janssen and Accardo facing them the next 2 days. This season has been hard to digest but the team is playing the end out to the nines. I'm hopeful for next year, if this pitching stays somewhere in this area and the O returns to 06 levles, we have a shot.