Usually members of the Roster disappear without much fanfare. Articles with their name at the bottom simply stop appearing on Battersbox. People could get the wrong idea. So, my disappearance will be public and friendly, consistent with the truth that Battersbox is a pena, not a junta.
Baseball Analysis is not dead
No one is there forcing fans, or even encouraging them, to analyze the game. There is beauty in Devon White gliding to the ball in left-centerfield, or a John Olerud swing, or an efficient Greg Maddux start. We can watch the games without trying to understand them, but if we do wish to go further, we can do so on our own terms. We as fans can develop our own understanding of the way the game works.
Take the defensive abilities of outfielders. What factors go into whether a particular ball hit to the outfield is caught aside from the defensive ability of the outfielders on either side of the ball (and perhaps the infielders going back on it)? Well, you have the positioning of the defenders, and you have the location where the ball is hit and how long it is up in the air. Let's take an example- a ball hit about 80 feet beyond where a shortstop normally plays. If the ball is in the air 2 seconds, it's a liner and will not be caught unless a shift is on. If the ball is in the air 3 seconds, it's a soft liner or low bloop and a tough play. If it's in the air 4.5 seconds, it is probably a routine fly, and if it's in the air 6 seconds, it's a high short fly which the shortstop, centerfielder or leftfielder can play very easily.
We can describe each ball hit in the air easily. We mark where the batted ball first makes contact with a fielder's glove, the ground or the wall. We draw an imaginary line from home plate to the place of first contact. The angle this line makes with the first base line give us direction. The length of the line gives us distance. We must measure hang time, from bat contact to first contact with glove, ground or wall. We end up with a line drive to left-center being described as a 60 degree, 180 ft, 2.1 second ball or simply (60, 180, 2.1). If we do this often enough, we can find out what percentage of the time on average a play is made for each described ball. There are, of course, special problems with balls near or off the wall with variance depending on the park.
The average game has about 30 balls in the air that stay in the yard. It would be nice if mlb tracked the hang time of these balls, but they don't. We as fans could. All we need are eight people with MLB.com TV to track the fly balls in 20 Blue Jays games. That's 600 fly balls each. Project Scoresheet was a lot harder than this, but we do need a better name than Project Hang Time.
At the 50th percentile where the great yawns begin
Watching the Blue Jays of 2007 has been an exercise in frustration, and it does not promise to get better. Their architect, J.P. Ricciardi, is a man of a few weaknesses and a few strengths, but ultimately he is not likely to guide them into the playoffs in a strong division. Being an average traditional general manager is simply not good enough for this club. Ricciardi's learning curve has been painfully slow, so it is unlikely that he will be good enough any time soon. The AL East is also a division that promises to get even stronger. There is the very real possibility that Tampa will pass Toronto in 2008, and by 2009, the Devil Rays will be fixing their gaze on the goliaths of the AL East.
Manager John Gibbons and his coaches are cut from the same cloth as Ricciardi, from the old school and not particularly good at what they do. At this point, the best thing for Ted Rogers and Paul Godfrey to do is clean house entirely. They are not likely to do so, at least until the club starts losing big-time. In the meanwhile, fans are likely to see more of the same. The only difference may be the unwillingness of more players to come to or stay in Toronto. The first sign of that may come this off-season. Ricciardi has indicated that he wants to sign Alex Rios to a long-term contract. We will see if Rios gives up any free agency years, but I am betting that he will want to get out of town as soon as possible.
And me..
I will be reading the boxscores and watching the games for the pure joy of it, with nothing much invested in the outcome. The difference between watching a game at the Rogers Centre and watching one at Christie Pits can be as small or large as the fan wants it to be. Meanwhile, the remainder of the playoffs await us.
PS
Tim Raines was great, and is on the Hall of Fame ballot this year. I don't know if he would be a unanimous selection by the Internet baseball Writers of the World to their Hall of Fame, but it would be pretty close. Perhaps the print writers are open to persuasion. The next great after Raines who might be ignored would be Barry Larkin in 2009. If he is missed by the writers, that would be an Arky Vaughan size mistake. And that was a doozy.
Baseball Analysis is not dead
No one is there forcing fans, or even encouraging them, to analyze the game. There is beauty in Devon White gliding to the ball in left-centerfield, or a John Olerud swing, or an efficient Greg Maddux start. We can watch the games without trying to understand them, but if we do wish to go further, we can do so on our own terms. We as fans can develop our own understanding of the way the game works.
Take the defensive abilities of outfielders. What factors go into whether a particular ball hit to the outfield is caught aside from the defensive ability of the outfielders on either side of the ball (and perhaps the infielders going back on it)? Well, you have the positioning of the defenders, and you have the location where the ball is hit and how long it is up in the air. Let's take an example- a ball hit about 80 feet beyond where a shortstop normally plays. If the ball is in the air 2 seconds, it's a liner and will not be caught unless a shift is on. If the ball is in the air 3 seconds, it's a soft liner or low bloop and a tough play. If it's in the air 4.5 seconds, it is probably a routine fly, and if it's in the air 6 seconds, it's a high short fly which the shortstop, centerfielder or leftfielder can play very easily.
We can describe each ball hit in the air easily. We mark where the batted ball first makes contact with a fielder's glove, the ground or the wall. We draw an imaginary line from home plate to the place of first contact. The angle this line makes with the first base line give us direction. The length of the line gives us distance. We must measure hang time, from bat contact to first contact with glove, ground or wall. We end up with a line drive to left-center being described as a 60 degree, 180 ft, 2.1 second ball or simply (60, 180, 2.1). If we do this often enough, we can find out what percentage of the time on average a play is made for each described ball. There are, of course, special problems with balls near or off the wall with variance depending on the park.
The average game has about 30 balls in the air that stay in the yard. It would be nice if mlb tracked the hang time of these balls, but they don't. We as fans could. All we need are eight people with MLB.com TV to track the fly balls in 20 Blue Jays games. That's 600 fly balls each. Project Scoresheet was a lot harder than this, but we do need a better name than Project Hang Time.
At the 50th percentile where the great yawns begin
Watching the Blue Jays of 2007 has been an exercise in frustration, and it does not promise to get better. Their architect, J.P. Ricciardi, is a man of a few weaknesses and a few strengths, but ultimately he is not likely to guide them into the playoffs in a strong division. Being an average traditional general manager is simply not good enough for this club. Ricciardi's learning curve has been painfully slow, so it is unlikely that he will be good enough any time soon. The AL East is also a division that promises to get even stronger. There is the very real possibility that Tampa will pass Toronto in 2008, and by 2009, the Devil Rays will be fixing their gaze on the goliaths of the AL East.
Manager John Gibbons and his coaches are cut from the same cloth as Ricciardi, from the old school and not particularly good at what they do. At this point, the best thing for Ted Rogers and Paul Godfrey to do is clean house entirely. They are not likely to do so, at least until the club starts losing big-time. In the meanwhile, fans are likely to see more of the same. The only difference may be the unwillingness of more players to come to or stay in Toronto. The first sign of that may come this off-season. Ricciardi has indicated that he wants to sign Alex Rios to a long-term contract. We will see if Rios gives up any free agency years, but I am betting that he will want to get out of town as soon as possible.
And me..
I will be reading the boxscores and watching the games for the pure joy of it, with nothing much invested in the outcome. The difference between watching a game at the Rogers Centre and watching one at Christie Pits can be as small or large as the fan wants it to be. Meanwhile, the remainder of the playoffs await us.
PS
Tim Raines was great, and is on the Hall of Fame ballot this year. I don't know if he would be a unanimous selection by the Internet baseball Writers of the World to their Hall of Fame, but it would be pretty close. Perhaps the print writers are open to persuasion. The next great after Raines who might be ignored would be Barry Larkin in 2009. If he is missed by the writers, that would be an Arky Vaughan size mistake. And that was a doozy.
