I hear many voices saying: "What in the name of Ruth is he talking about?". And that's fine with me. The sooner the Gleeman-Green bet is forgotten, the happier I will be.
Aaron Gleeman and I made a bet in late 2003 about four then-young catching prospects- Joe Mauer, Jeff Mathis, Guillermo Quiroz and Dioner Navarro. Aaron took M and M; I took Q and Navarro. The pair with the highest Win Share total for the period 2005-08 wins the bet.
You all know the results. Joe Mauer has had one of the greatest career openings of any catcher ever, perhaps behind only Johnny Bench. The other three have not yet been better than replacement level players. The Win Share totals so far are:
Mauer 74
Navarro 11
Mathis 1
Quiroz 0
I suppose that it is theoretically possible for Navarro and Quiroz to turn in 34 Win Shares seasons each in 2008, and for Mauer and Mathis to earn 0 Win Shares, but it's a risk I am prepared to take. I concede.
So, when the 2008 Twins schedule is released, I expect to receive an e-mail from Aaron with his preferences for tickets to a Jays-Twins game. I see that Guillermo Quiroz' Baseball Reference page is unsponsored, and perhaps I should take care of that, too. There is a lesson perhaps. The "early success rate" of top catching prospects may be lower than either Aaron or I thought, as the dropout rate due to injury is significantly higher than for other positions.
Aaron Gleeman and I made a bet in late 2003 about four then-young catching prospects- Joe Mauer, Jeff Mathis, Guillermo Quiroz and Dioner Navarro. Aaron took M and M; I took Q and Navarro. The pair with the highest Win Share total for the period 2005-08 wins the bet.
You all know the results. Joe Mauer has had one of the greatest career openings of any catcher ever, perhaps behind only Johnny Bench. The other three have not yet been better than replacement level players. The Win Share totals so far are:
Mauer 74
Navarro 11
Mathis 1
Quiroz 0
I suppose that it is theoretically possible for Navarro and Quiroz to turn in 34 Win Shares seasons each in 2008, and for Mauer and Mathis to earn 0 Win Shares, but it's a risk I am prepared to take. I concede.
So, when the 2008 Twins schedule is released, I expect to receive an e-mail from Aaron with his preferences for tickets to a Jays-Twins game. I see that Guillermo Quiroz' Baseball Reference page is unsponsored, and perhaps I should take care of that, too. There is a lesson perhaps. The "early success rate" of top catching prospects may be lower than either Aaron or I thought, as the dropout rate due to injury is significantly higher than for other positions.
