This is the last week of the minor leagues regular season and it is a good time to look back at 2007 and the performances of the top 30 Blue Jay prospects from a year ago. The Batters Box minor league team will produce this years top 30 list soon but many of these players will drop off the prospect lists. This is also a good time to evaluate how successful was the 2007 minor league season. In summary this has been a disappointing season for the minor league system, many more prospects have regressed than progressed. The one positive aspect is many of the prospects moving ahead are in, or close to, the major leagues.

Conventional thinking about prospects suggests that one third of a teams prospects will take a leap forward, one third will move backwards and one third will stagnate. Looking at the current season through that metric 2007 was a poor year for the Blue Jays system. Thirty-four players were considered including the Batters Box top 30 list and some players rated as top 30 by other organizations such as Baseball America. Within that 34 I rated five players as moving ahead (15%), ten as static (30%) and nineteen as moving backwards (55%). Here are the lists:

Moving Forward
Travis Snider
Curtis Thigpen
Jesse Litsch
Robinzon Diaz
Brian Jeroloman

Stable/Stagnant
Adam Lind
Ricky Romero
Josh Banks
Lee Gronkiewicz
Jamie Vermilyea
Michael MacDonald
Brandon Magee
Kyle Ginley
Billy Carnline
Yohermyn Chavez

Moving Backwards
Ryan Patterson
Davis Romero
Ryan Roberts
Chip Cannon
Sergio Santos
Ryan Klosterman
Dustin Majewski
David Purcey
Kyle Yates
Ty Taubenheim
Eric Fowler
Tracey Thorpe
Anthony Hatch
Chi-Hung Cheng
Balbino Fuenmayor
Joey Metropoulos
Shane Benson
Paul Phillips
Po-Hsuan Keng

Not Rated
Francisco Rosario

Here is some more discussion of the ratings. The discussion is generally brief as the 2007 edition of the Top 30 prospects will discuss the players in more detail.

Moving Forward

The moving forward list was the easiest list. Travis Snider had an excellent year in Lansing for a 19 year old. Curtis Thigpen was a high level prospect coming into 2007 and he advanced to the major leagues ahead of schedule. Thigpen has not played a lot this year but he has developed as a catcher and it now looks like he could be a major leaguer at that position.

Robinzon Diaz was low on prospect lists heading into this season but his ability to hit at every level advanced his prospect status. Diaz still has some challenges in game calling but they can be remedied, he has the tools to succeed with a strong arm and a good bat. Another catching prospect is Brian Jeroloman who wasn't on the Batters Box top 30 list last fall but did make it at number 30 on Baseball America's list. Jeroloman's reputation was a good defence, no offense catcher. Jeroloman was sent to Dunedin this year, a big jump for a first full season and he hit well enough. Catchers are generally in short supply and Jeroloman might not be a star but his prospect standing has improved over 2006.

Jesse Litsch surprised everyone with his progression this season and probably took the biggest jump ahead of all prospects.

Stable/Stagnant

Adam Lind was the Blue Jays number one or number two prospect heading into 2007 and when judged by that standard he had an average season. Lind hit well in AAA but his exposure to major league pitchers showed up some deficiencies.

Ricky Romero progressed to AA and showed flashes of good form but too often was hittable. An argument could be made that Romero moved backwards this season but injuries also played a role in his not getting enough starts, the AFL should correct that. Leaving him in the stable group was also influenced by my seeing him pitch this year and recognizing that he has the tools, Romero needs to learn how to pitch and to improve his control.

Josh Banks had another good AAA season, his numbers were OK but doubts still remain over his ability to handle major league hitters. We will find out soon. The same could be said for Lee Gronkiewicz, Jamie Vermilyea and Michael MacDonald. Each of them had good 2007 seasons but they did not do enough to prove they belong in the major leagues.

Brandon Magee's season probably leans towards the moving forward group but I have left him as stable due to his lower strikeout numbers. Magee had a rough April with an ERA over 9 but then his ERA was around 3.00 each month from May to August. On the negative side Magee struckout 76 hitters in 156 innings. Magee likely needs to develop a strikeout pitch to thrive at AA.

Kyle Ginley turned 21 on September 1st and struck out more than a hitter per inning in 2007. Ginley has shown the fastball to progress, he needs the other pitches to develop too.

Billy Carnline was injured for the first half of the season but he still has not shown that he can dominate high A hitters. Carnline only pitched 39 innings but 20 strikeouts is too low, especially for a reliever. The injury keeps Carnline in the stable group, otherwise he would be moving back.

Yoheromyn Chavez played in the GCL, arguably a step down from Pulaski where he played in 2006. Chavez did improve his batting average and his power but one area of concern would be strikeouts where his K rate increased. Still not bad for an 18 year old.

Moving Backwards

Ryan Patterson broke his arm in spring training and it could be argued that the injury played a role here, but he never really took off. Patterson did hit around .300 over the last two months with a little power, ten home runs, but most of that power was in July. Patterson's August OPS was .725, not enough for a former top 10 prospect to maintain his ranking.

Davis Romero had a lost season to injury.

Ryan Roberts had some major league time but didn't hit and hit under .250 in AAA. Starting the year Roberts looked like a major league utility player but now even that looks like a long shot.

Chip Cannon was also injured but when healthy regressed. Cannon struck out 155 times in 394 at-bats, a 20% increase over 2006.

Sergio Santos can hit AA pitching, but not AAA. Even in AA Santos' batting average finished at just .250. Santos did show a better eye and more power in AA but his hot start masked his very average may through august.

Ryan Klosterman is another injury victim but he was reduced to being a utility player in AA, he hit .205 in 341 at-bats.

Dustin Majewski repeated AA but hitting under .250 as a 26 year old in your second tour in the league is not going to get you a promotion.

David Purcey had a "Purcey-like" season, flashes of brilliance, flashes of mediocrity and injuries. Purcey made only eleven starts and sported a 5.37 ERA. Purcey can still get the K's so a conversion to the bullpen might be in his future.

Kyle Yates repeated AA but batters hit over .300 off him. Yates ERA, opponent batting average and strikeout rate all regressed from 2006 to 2007 in Yates' second tour around the league.

Ty Taubenheim went all the way back to AA after getting shelled at AAA and in one major league start.

Eric Fowler also spent time on the DL but after putting up a seven plus ERA in AA he was sent back to high A where his ERA was 5.40.

Tracey Thorpe is another injury victim but had a horrible end to the season. Thorpe needed to improve his control but walked 29 in 56 innings. Thorpe had two months of great pitching and three months of horrible pitching. Thorpe needs control and consistency.

Anthony Hatch had a very good 2006 although he did suffer from wrist injuries. 2007 has been OK but only barely enough to earn a promotion to AA for next season.

Chi-Hung Cheng only pitched in a half-dozen games

Balbino Fuenmayor went to the GCL and hit .174. As an 18 year old he has time but I doubt that Baseball America will repeat their #10 ranking of him in this years list.

Joey Metropoulos was released.

Shane Benson made six starts and had an ERA of 6.00.

Paul Phillips split his season between Lansing and Dunedin but was victim to the longball in Dunedin and that ballooned his ERA to 6.26

Po-Hsuan Keng's ERA almost doubled as he repeated A ball, from 2.33 in 2006 to 4.50 in 2007. Keng is still only 22 but there were few signs of progression this year.

Summary

Arguments could be made that some evaluations were too generous, Jeroloman and Romero perhaps. I don't see many arguments for players to be moved ahead, maybe Ryan Patterson. 2007 was not a good year for the Jays minor league system other than the progression of Litsch, Romero and Thigpen to the majors and hte continued strong hitting of Travis Snider. The changed approach to the 2007 draft might be an acknowledgement that the Jays saw that players were not progressing as expected.

The Batters Box Blue Jay top 30 prospect list is under development and Travis Snider will be the unanimous #1 selection. After Snider the field gets very thin with a lot riding on the young players selected in the 2007 draft. A farm system only needs to deliver a starter or two per year. With Diaz and Snider on the horizon the Jays might get their player a year but the depth in the system has taken a big hit in 2007.