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Let us consider who should be taking home the Cy Young Award this year. In one league, it's a pretty easy choice. In the other, not so much.

It looks pretty cut and dried to me in the National League.

1. Jake Peavy (16-5, 2.10, 184.2 IP, 206 K, 55 BB) - He currently leads the league in all three categories for the pitcher's triple crown (wins, ERA, and strikeouts). He works in one of the great pitcher's parks of all time, but it's what he's done away from home this year that really makes you gasp: 8-0, 1.22 in 11 starts. And while the 16-5 record is impressive enough, he has three Tough Losses (against one cheap win) - he also has four no decisions when he worked at least seven innings and allowed just one run or less. The weakness of the NL notwithstanding, has there been a better pitcher anywhere this year?

2. Brandon Webb (14-10, 2.91, 204 IP, 177 K, 63 BB) - Last year's winner is having another outstanding year. The BOB is one of the better hitter's parks in the league (it's been roughly the same as Coors itself this year). He's also got three Tough Losses this year (and no cheap wins) and of the 57 NL starters who have worked 120 or more innings, 47 of them have received better run support than the 4.18 Webb gets to work with.

3. Brad Penny (14-4, 2.88, 178 IP, 122 K, 62 BB) - Penny has no home-road split worth mentioning (7-2 2.98 at home, 7-2 2.74 on the road) - that, and the fact that he's made four more starts and worked 38 more innings persuades me to rank him above Chris Young of the Padres (who has an ERA of 1.22 at home, 3.59 on the road.). Penny has no Tough Losses and just one Cheap Win, and three outstanding no decisions (7 or more innings, 1 or fewer runs).

Also worthy of mention: Chris Young, Tim Hudson, John Smoltz, Roy Oswalt - and while I'm generally a little reluctant to consider relief pitchers, Takashi Saito has been fabulous for the Dodgers.

In the AL, Danny Haren jumped to the front of the pack in the first half of the season. As he came back to earth, Erik Bedard of the Orioles emerged as a strong candidate. But Bedard may not pitch again this season. Perennial contender Johan Santana sports a 14-11 record, which seems pretty ordinary, at least by his own otherworldly standards. Five pitchers have 16 wins, but none of them are among the top five in ERA - Sabathia, Lackey, and Beckett are in a tight little knot in the top 10, all having essentially the same excellent season. The winner is probably going to be determined by what happens this month. Until then...

1. Johan Santana (14-11, 3.15, 194 IP, 203 K, 44 BB) - He's still the best. He has seven Tough Losses this season (just one Cheap Win) - he's worked at least six innings in all but two of his starts (when he worked five, in a win against Boston and a loss to Toronto.)

2. Dan Haren (14-6, 2.87, 161 K, 47 BB) - Think Walt Jocketty might like to have this trade back? If we make a list of worst transactions perpetrated by current GMs, this one's probably going near the top of the list, and we haven't even heard from Daric Barton yet. He has 25 Quality Starts, which leads the majors (one more than Peavy).

3. C.C. Sabathia (16-7, 3.24, 211 IP, 182 K, 32 BB) - The big fella leads the world in innings pitched, and only Paul Byrd is less likely to issue a free pass. The 16-7 record could very easily be better. From July 24 through August 24, he went 1-3, 2.13 in six starts - during that stretch he allowed just 12 ER in 50.2 IP, and never more than two in any one of them. He turned 27 in July, and he's got 97 career wins. At the same age, Roger Clemens had 95 wins, Tom Glavine had 73, and Randy Johnson had 24.

Also worthy of mention: Kelvim Escobar, John Lackey, Josh Beckett, J.J. Putz, Erik Bedard.
4 September 2007: Cy Young Candidates | 7 comments | Create New Account
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Gerry - Tuesday, September 04 2007 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#173868) #
I believe five of Santana's eleven losses have been to the Indians.  The Indians could cost him the CY Young.  I think wins are the number one criteria for the voters, so if one of those pitchers with 16 wins can win four of their last five starts the CY young will be theirs.
Mick Doherty - Tuesday, September 04 2007 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#173869) #
Won't Santana be hurt not only by the middling (by his standards) W-L but also by an electorate tired of voting for him? I think Haren gets some "let's vote for the new guy this year" support.
Jevant - Tuesday, September 04 2007 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#173870) #
Rightly or wrongly, I betcha a few voters will also consider the fact that Sabathia just beat Santana in a head-to-head matchup in a "September pennant race game", and that Sabathia is playing for a contending team.

I'd probably rank them Sabathia-Santana-Haren.  And that decision is only slightly skewed by the fact that I have Sabathia in a long term keeper league, and I really need him to have a huge September.

John Northey - Tuesday, September 04 2007 @ 05:27 PM EDT (#173871) #
Normally, unless someone blows the others out of the water, wins is the #1 factor, followed by ERA.

In the AL that means the serious contenders are...
16 wins...
Sabathia - 3.24 #1 in SO/BB but also #1 in hits allowed
Lackey - 3.26
Beckett - 3.29
Wang - 3.79
Wakefield - 4.16 has a decision in all 26 starts

15 wins...
Escobar - 2.99 (#2 and only other one below 3)
Verlander - 3.67 plus only 5 losses #1 in W% and #1 in WP & HBP

14 wins...
Haren - 2.87 (leader)
Santana - 3.15 #1 in WHIP which more writers are learning about, but also #1 in HR allowed
Carmona - 3.31
Halladay - 3.87 #1 in CG, 6 vs 3 for the #2 guys
Matsuzaka - 4.11
Byrd - 4.19 - #1 in BB/9


groove - Tuesday, September 04 2007 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#173874) #
FWIW, the ESPN Cy Predictor has C.C. Sabathia in a comfortable lead at #1, and Santana is far off the pace at #10.  http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/features/cy

Also, the under the radar J.J. Putz is sitting at #3 just behind Lackey.
 

Mike Green - Wednesday, September 05 2007 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#173924) #
I don't think that Magpie was asking who will win the Cy Young, but who should win it.  I agree that Santana is unlikely to win it because of his less-than-stellar W-L record, but that he is still the best pitcher in the league.  Actually, the margin is, if anything, growing, as Doc is not quite as dominating as before.

Peavy is likely to win, and is deserving.

costanza - Wednesday, September 05 2007 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#173931) #
Sabathia actually "beat" Santana three times from Aug.3 to Sept. 3.  CC gave up 2,2, and 0 runs in those games, while Johan gave up 5,4,4.  I'd probably factor that into things.  If anything, swap even one or two of those games, and Johan's the likely "leader" right now.  (With all 3, CC's 13-10, and Johan at 17-8 looks like a lock)

That said, given how close they are in ERA and other rate stats, I do think that the extra 17 innings CC has pitched has made him the more valuable pitcher than Johan so far this year.  I think this is something that is too often overlooked by some people in these sort of discussions.

Yes, Johan probably would have more IPs if his bullpen wasn't as good as it is (especially compared to Cleveland's), but add 17 "average" or "replacement value" innings to Johan's totals, and I suspect they end up noticeably worse than CC's stats.

4 September 2007: Cy Young Candidates | 7 comments | Create New Account
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