sure, Wells and Overbay will bounce back.  Probably Johnson as well.  unfortunately, i think 'what you see is what you get' with both Glaus and Thomas.  i would be quite surprised to see either Thomas or Glaus get to the 30 homerun/100 rbi mark that you need these guys to be at to be a playoff team.34

i look up and down this line-up and see nothing but trouble ahead.  if i could erase all contracts and start with a clean slate, i'd keep Rios, Hill and Overbay-that's it.  how many teams have a worse 3-4-5 combination than the Jays this year?  i'd take Wells, Thomas, Glaus over KC's combination...and not one other team's.  and when you count $$$ tied up for the return they are getting, they are getting by far the worst return on their investment.  unfortunately, that is what we are stuck with for the next 2 years-there will be no free agent saviour or trade on the horizon.  if not for the amazing development of Marcum, McGowan, Janssen, Accardo, Wolfe and Litsch (notice the 'pitcher' theme) this year would be an absolute bust.  the one positive-i'd rather have great pitching and an impotent offence than the other way around.

Two other Jays (Clayton and Phillips never happened, right, can we agree on that?) have received significant at bats this year.

Stairs, who after a slow start in April has been easily the best hitter when in the lineup, and at age 39 is having one of his best seasons. Stairs is the only guy on the team having a surprisingly good year at the plate, and I shudder to think how bad the offense might have been without him (worst in the league?). Should the Jays be trying to bring him back next year? If so, what sort of playing time can they offer him?
Career .267/.359/.487
2006    .247/.328/.420
2007    .295/.370/.565


Lind, who it may surprise you to recall got to the plate 250 times, and stunk, much like Rios did for two years before "getting it". Another let down, as many were at least hoping once he got the chance he could be league average, and provide some much needed above average hitting against righties. I figured he might force a platoon with Johnson once Johnson returned, but no such luck.

Actually, it isn't that complex as to where to fix.

LF: Lind 70 OPS+, Johnson 78 OPS+, Stairs 135 OPS+

For some reason Gibbons keeps Johnson out there everyday and Stairs on the bench more often than not.  I'd reduce Johnson to a platoon role (some starts vs RHP to give Wells & Rios a day off here and there, same for Thomas & Overbay while Stairs goes into their slots in the field).  In the offseason it shouldn't be hard to find a solid hitter who can play left.  If Lind suddenly develops, great but don't count on it.  As for Rios, his worst MLB season was an 83 OPS+

SS: McDonald 61, Olmedo 72, Clayton was a 70 here.  There has got to be a better solution.  Be it moving Hill to SS and finding a second baseman who can hit or finding a SS with an 80 OPS+ you should be able to improve without breaking the bank.

CA: Zaun 76, Thigpen 57, Phillips 44, Fasano 40 - ugh.  Again, finding someone who can produce a 90 OPS+ would be a big asset.   Note: Barajas has an OPS+ of 86 but has played just 43 games (injuries iirc).

Those are three sinkholes, one of which should've been an asset instead (LF).  The incumbents in all 3 positions have been backups before and, in truth, should always have been backups outside of their career years (outside of McDonald who should never be getting 200 AB's in a season imo).  Play Stairs more this year, get a solid everyday LF for next or at least improve CA/SS - both of which can be nightmares to find solid players at.

It's frightening to note that McDonald is actually doing better than usual this year.

Haha! I wonder if this means everybody was wrong with the theory that JMac can't handle the everyday playing time and that his production, both offensive and defensive, would decline without a platoon.

However, I just looked at his splits and realized that July and August have been his worst offensive months this year, so maybe there is something to be said for the fact that the guy is an even worse hitter when thrust into the spotlight on a daily basis.

I've translated "Sic transit gloria mundi" for those that don't know Latin...

Roughly translated it means: "We have a sick transit system and Gloria only uses it on Mondays." I love knowing languages, now if only Wells could keep his shoulder from flying open.

I'm with J.P.  If this team is left alone, it could contend in 2008.  Overbay, Wells and Glaus should all bounce back to their career averages.  I expect Hill's average and OBP to improve as well.  Lind (who seems to have finally re-discovered his swing in AAA) should platoon with Johnson which will improve they Jays' offense against righties.  Thigpen and Olmedo will offer an improvement on the bench over Phillips and Clayton.  I don't expect much improvement from Zaun and Thomas, based on their ages, but Thomas still has an OPS of .842!  It's not like he's a sinkhole.  He may be overpaid, but I'll take a .372 OBP and 27-30 homeruns over Hillenbrand any day.

The only position that needs to be upgraded is SS.  However, four of the Jays' five current starters are groundball pitchers, so any offensive improvement must not be a great defensive downgrade.  With two TJ recipients in the rotation, I don't think J.P. can afford to trade one of the six starters (I'm including Janssen and excluding Towers) for a SS.  The Jays' need that insurance.  However, there are some bullpen arms that are likely at their peak value right now and with Ryan coming back next year, could J.P. package a reliever with some prospects for an upgrade at SS?

Finally, while I know the discussion is about the offense, let's not forget that the 2007 Ohka/Zambrano/Towers starts are going to be replaced in 2008 with starts from McGowan/Marcum/Litsch or Janssen.

I remain optimistic about the Jays' chances in 2008, even if J.P. stands pat.

In the latest Jays notes on mlb.com, Brantley says V-Dub has been battling a sore shoulder for most of the season.  I remember him missing limited time last year to a nagging lower back problem, but this is the first I've heard of an upper body issue.  I think the injury claim is more of a cover, but he does identify the real root of V-Dub's troubles this year:

"What's perplexing about [Wells] is, he's kind of reverted back to his pull swing of two years ago," Toronto hitting coach Mickey Brantley said. "He's so pull conscious and they're pounding him away. When he hits the ball hard the other way, he doesn't seem to find the hole. So, he doesn't want to go back there, because he knows his strength is to pull. That's been a problem all year."

Let's do something about this, shall we?

******

Given that the woes of Glaus, Overbay and perhaps Zaun and Sparky are mostly  injury-related, the most worrisome numbers on that list are Hill's.  Is he trying to sock dingers this year?  He really shouldn't be--that is certainly not his role on this team--and he needs to get that OBP back up to .350-ish or better.  He's becoming a "Mr. Swing At Everything" like V-Dub and I don't like that one bit.

Either pitchers have found a weakness, or he's trying too hard to earn his money. I suspect the latter.

I know you've been paying attention to games Dave... and it is painfully obvious it is the former.

Good point about Beltran. When I watched Wells I did think about Beltran and his poor season right after signing his big deal. I suspect Wells will be much improved next year.

I disagree on Rios. He didn't start hot and finish cool.

He started raking. Followed by the staph infection. Which saw him have a real bad month when he returned and then spent September absolutely mashing the ball. He's the real deal.

I think that Rios is for real too. I was just saying that his numbers this year have wound up where they were last year. I'm looking forward to seeing his 2008 numbers - I don't think people outside Toronto realize how good he is now.

I know you've been paying attention to games Dave... and it is painfully obvious it is the former.

I haven't been paying that much attention, I fear. :-)

It could be both, come to think of it: he could be trying too hard, which causes him to pull off the ball and consistently miss certain pitches.

I assume that Wells is capable of adjusting to cover weaknesses, or he wouldn't have lasted this long in the majors.

Some of this depends on the stubborness of JP and Gibby. For instance, Gibby CAN presist in starting a declining Zaun, as he is now, over the young hopefully improving guy....but for this, I will assume they will do the obvious...

C - Thiggy will be better than Zaun - hard to say how much

1B - Overbay will return to his career norms

2B - should continue to improve if he can reconcile the decline in OB skills that comes with trying to hit for more power

SS - open wound

3B - should return to career norms but likely a low30's HR total from now on

RF - Rios continues to grow into an upper echelon guy

CF - Wells should return to career norms - likely a bit above that though not another 2006

LF - Barring some dream aquisition like Dunn, Abreu, or Griffey, this one is tricky to predict. Jp could easily just fall back on Lind and that MIght be all that's needed, but, as much as I like the kid - he's not a middle of the order guy which is what we need our next LHbat to be...and make no mistake, a power hitting LH is called for here. Assuming no star level aquisition, I suggest Geoff Jenkins as the strong half of a platoon with Reed. As much as I would love to believe Stairs can keep it up, it's a fool's proposition to award him this place in the starting lineup next year.

DH - Thomas is in Decline. I hope that he cancontribute an .850+ OPs next year and 25 HR....but I also wish there was a way to avoid the 2009 option because I'm not at all sure he has 2 $0 million seasons left in him. More to the imediate point, I hope next year's manager isn't married to Big Frank in the clean-up role...especially early on.

 

Going back to SS......too many options to list given that all of them are loaded with speculation, but assuming the Japanese guy goes elsewhere, a run at Rentiria seems in order to me.

 

 

I see a lot of the phrase "should/will return to career norms" in this thread as a basis for optimism in 2008, particularly in the case of Overbay, Glaus, Wells.

Isn't it possible (some would say likely) that what we are seeing for some of these players is age-related decline, adjustments that pitchers are making to exploit hitter weaknesses etc? It just seems like a stretch to think that several key players will bounce back next year, based solely on "norms". I would argue that in the case of Overbay this represents a fairly brief ML career and in the case of Wells there is a very high degree of variance (good year/bad year). Glaus is just creaky and aged beyond his years - injuries are a huge factor here.

I really hope that you guys are right, and I know that we are locked into these players for better or worse next year - but I just don't really share the optimism.

Of course, a quality SS and/or LF acquisition could change the complexion of the team quickly. However, I am not at all in favour of "we'll stand pat, because next year there won't be any injuries and everybody will hit like they have in the past". This seems to be the line JP is currently handing out.

Of course, a quality SS and/or LF acquisition could change the complexion of the team quickly. However, I am not at all in favour of "we'll stand pat, because next year there won't be any injuries and everybody will hit like they have in the past". This seems to be the line JP is currently handing out.

I don't think anyone round here is happy with that "line". I just want to point out that I really don't think LF is such a priority - sure, I'd love to grab a tremendous LH bat like Bobby Abreu, but our own LFs are good enough, if used correctly in a strict platoon. They would basically give you at least an .850 OPS, which while not spectacular, is more than enough, especially with the talent surrounding it in the outfield. Their 2007 splits would lead to a ridiculous LFer with close to a 1.000 OPS. Sigh, Gibbons.

Reed Johnson's career vs LHP .310/.375/.467, 2007 vs LHP .340/.417/.604

Matt Stairs' career vs RHP .273/.365/.501, 2007 vs RHP .298/.367/.595
(as a lefty, let's not count the days he used to switch hit!)

I agree that Johnson should be in a platoon in LF with a left-handed bat.  Lind seems to have found his stroke again in AAA and his OPS is back up to .834 and rising.  I'm just concerned that there's a strong possibility Matt Stairs won't repeat this year's performance, since he'll be 40 years old next year.  Stairs should still be solid against righties, but Lind is better defensively and should continue to improve offensively.  Besides, Stairs is going to cost some money after his performance in 2007, and the Jays might be better served going after a left-handed hitter who can play 3B instead of bringing Stairs back when they already have Lind.

If the Jays are fine with Olmedo or Adams at 3B for the days Glaus is too sore to play though, then maybe signing Stairs to platoon with Thomas would be an option.  Thomas is having trouble hitting righties, but he has an OPS of 1.077 against lefties this year and Stairs has an OPS of .962 against righties.  Now that would be one hell of a DH platoon.  It might also have the added bonus of keeping Thomas from reaching the at-bats he'd need to have the 2009 option year kick in.

Thomas is having trouble hitting righties, but he has an OPS of 1.077 against lefties this year and Stairs has an OPS of .962 against righties.  Now that would be one hell of a DH platoon.  It might also have the added bonus of keeping Thomas from reaching the at-bats he'd need to have the 2009 option year kick in.

Extremely well said. If the Jays didn't give a hoot about what Thomas thought, they shouldn't have a problem giving Stairs the 2m or whatever he will command. You platoon him as you said, and this way you can ensure he doesn't reach the plate appearances. I just don't know if JP can pull something like that off - it may have a serious negative effect on Thomas' numbers vs LHP. The 2m investment in Stairs to platoon at DH and be a 2nd OF (with the Lind/Johnson platoon we all want) will be well worth it if it prevents the Big Hurt from making 10m in 2009, when Snider might be ready to get some ABs vs RHP to help out this anemic offense against righties. Whatever it is, this team can't afford another April/May of 8hr 21rbi from its DH/#4/#5 hitter.

Lind seems to have found his stroke again in AAA and his OPS is back up to .834 and rising.

This statement assumes that Lind lost his stroke. Isn't it entirely possible that he's no more than a AAAA hitter (either forever or in 2008, though I'm specifically referring to next season)? The Jays simply cannot go into the season banking on him to be the Catalanotto (or Johnson, depending on how you look at that situation) of years past. This, of course, means that the Jays need to resign Stairs all the more.

It is possible that Lind will amount to nothing more than a AAAA player, but I don't think so.  Lind's hitting .304/.355/.480/.834 in AAA right now.  The worst numbers he's put up in his minor league career, but they're still solid AAA numbers despite the prolonged struggles after his demotion.  It has only been the last few weeks that he's started to hit again and his numbers have improved.  It looks like he's figured it out, at least in AAA.  Don't forget that Hill followed a similar pattern when he first came up.  He demolished major league pitching in the beginning, pitchers adjusted, he was awful for quite some time, then he made his own adjustments.  I expect Lind to come around as well.  Even if he doesn't improve upon his current AAA numbers, those numbers suggest that he could hit somewhere around .275/.330/.455 in the majors right now, and he's only 24 years old and should improve.  But the primary reason that I think Lind will be a solid major league batter is that most professional scouts and sports analysts have stated that he had a sweet swing and that his bat was already major league caliber.  It was always his defense that was questioned, and his defense in LF was fine when he was with the Jays.  I think that if he hits this September, and expect that he will, he'll be platooning with Johnson to start the 2008 season.

Perhaps I was misunderstood.

I am far from saying that Adam Lind is nothing more than a AAAA player. I hope with all my heart that he becomes a solid, if not more than that, outfielder in the majors. His track record up until now, aside from his struggles earlier this season, indicate that he will evolve into that above-average outfielder.

But can the Jays rely on him next season - be it to be a meaningful presence on the bench or to platoon with Johnson? I don't think so. If there's one thing that can be learned from this off-season, it's that a plan of tangible, proven talent is needed.

Bases need to be covered. Relying on Adam Lind at this stage isn't a good idea for Jays fans or for Mr. Lind. Anyone remember this guy? http://thebaseballcube.com/players/P/Josh-Phelps.shtml

I don't know if a guy with an .824 career OPS and a 957 OPS this season can really be considered a AAAA player.  I personally think the guy (Phelps) has gotten a pretty raw deal around the league with that bad rap.

If there's one thing that can be learned from this off-season, it's that a plan of tangible, proven talent is needed.

Isn't that what the current lineup is based on?