There are more things in heaven and earth than are dreamt of in your
philosophy, and the Arizona Diamondbacks are a phenomenon far beyond the
range of our poor instruments.
Consider the Toronto Blue Jays, as we often do. They've scored 585 runs this season and allowed 546. Pythagoras has turned a stony and hostile gaze upon pretty much all of the AL East this season, so the Jays sport but a 65-64 record, rather than the 69-60 mark you would expect. So they've been a little unlucky - not as unlucky as the Yankees, but OK.
Meanwhile the Diamondbacks have scored 551 runs and allowed 584. And what is their reward for scoring 34 fewer runs than Toronto and allowing 38 more?
The second best record in the National League. They've won 73 games and lost 57. They have a better record than the Yankees.
The Diamondbacks have done this sort of thing before. In 2005, they scored 696 runs and allowed 856 - they could have been expected to post a 64-98 mark, and losing 100 games would have been quite reasonable.
But, as history tells us, they didn't lose 100 games - they went 77-85, beating their Pythagorean expectation by a whopping 13 games. Extensive investigation showed that to be the 7th luckiest season of all time.
Well, folks. This year they're going for the record.
It's a tough record to break - it's held up for more than a century. In 1905, the Detroit Tigers played like a .418 team - they scored 512 runs and allowed 604. A 64-89 record was the expected result. Somehow, some way, the Tigers pulled off a 79-74 mark. They won 15 games more than expected, their winning percentage was .098 higher than expected. And the rookie from Georgia probably had little to do with it - Ty Cobb hit .240 in 41 games after joining the team at the end of August.
No other team has over-achieved to such a degree. No one's really come close.
But the Diamondbacks of 2007 are taking a run at it. Here are the 10 greatest over-achieving teams in baseball history, along with the 2007 D'Backs.
And you probably noticed that the top ten includes some short 19th century seasons, the war-shortened 1918 season, and the strike year of 1981.
So how is this happening? Is Bob Melvin a genius? Discuss among yourselves.
By the way - the 2005 Diamondbacks played Troy Glaus and Royce Clayton on the left side of the infield. So maybe that's what Ricciardi was thinking this year. Change the luck. Worth a shot, anyway.
Consider the Toronto Blue Jays, as we often do. They've scored 585 runs this season and allowed 546. Pythagoras has turned a stony and hostile gaze upon pretty much all of the AL East this season, so the Jays sport but a 65-64 record, rather than the 69-60 mark you would expect. So they've been a little unlucky - not as unlucky as the Yankees, but OK.
Meanwhile the Diamondbacks have scored 551 runs and allowed 584. And what is their reward for scoring 34 fewer runs than Toronto and allowing 38 more?
The second best record in the National League. They've won 73 games and lost 57. They have a better record than the Yankees.
The Diamondbacks have done this sort of thing before. In 2005, they scored 696 runs and allowed 856 - they could have been expected to post a 64-98 mark, and losing 100 games would have been quite reasonable.
But, as history tells us, they didn't lose 100 games - they went 77-85, beating their Pythagorean expectation by a whopping 13 games. Extensive investigation showed that to be the 7th luckiest season of all time.
Well, folks. This year they're going for the record.
It's a tough record to break - it's held up for more than a century. In 1905, the Detroit Tigers played like a .418 team - they scored 512 runs and allowed 604. A 64-89 record was the expected result. Somehow, some way, the Tigers pulled off a 79-74 mark. They won 15 games more than expected, their winning percentage was .098 higher than expected. And the rookie from Georgia probably had little to do with it - Ty Cobb hit .240 in 41 games after joining the team at the end of August.
No other team has over-achieved to such a degree. No one's really come close.
But the Diamondbacks of 2007 are taking a run at it. Here are the 10 greatest over-achieving teams in baseball history, along with the 2007 D'Backs.
Actual Record Pythagorean Projection
Year Team Lg G W L PCT RS RA Run Diff | PCT W L Extra Wins Pct Increase
1905 DET A 153 79 74 .516 512 604 -92 | .418 64 89 15 .098
2007 ARZ N 130 73 57 .562 551 584 -33 | .471 61 69 12 .091
1981 CIN N 108 66 42 .611 464 440 24 | .527 57 51 9 .085
1955 KC A 154 63 91 .409 638 911 -273 | .329 51 103 12 .080
1878 BOS N 60 41 19 .683 298 241 57 | .605 36 24 5 .079
1892 CHI N 76 39 37 .513 341 389 -48 | .435 33 43 6 .079
1943 BOS N 153 68 85 .444 465 612 -147 | .366 56 96 12 .078
2005 ARI N 162 77 85 .475 696 856 -160 | .398 64 98 13 .077
1972 NYM N 156 83 73 .532 528 578 -50 | .455 71 85 12 .077
1894 NY N 132 88 44 .667 962 801 161 | .591 78 54 10 .076
1918 BRO N 126 57 69 .452 360 463 -103 | .377 47 79 10 .076
And you probably noticed that the top ten includes some short 19th century seasons, the war-shortened 1918 season, and the strike year of 1981.
So how is this happening? Is Bob Melvin a genius? Discuss among yourselves.
By the way - the 2005 Diamondbacks played Troy Glaus and Royce Clayton on the left side of the infield. So maybe that's what Ricciardi was thinking this year. Change the luck. Worth a shot, anyway.
