Quietly, the Orioles have gone 18-13 in the second half. Their 2008 batting order is starting to take shape - they got to Mariano Rivera twice in the same series earlier this week. The O's also seem to have the makings of a decent pitching staff, as Jeremy Guthrie has been one of the best bargain-basement pickups in baseball and Garrett Olson earned his ticket to Baltimore faster than anyone anticipated. The Jays will see both of those guys this weekend, as well as (groan) Steve Trachsel. Hey, at least it's not Daniel Cabrera, right?
Garrett Olson is probably the Orioles' top pitching prospect right now. He's a 23-year-old lefty. The Orioles took him in 2005 with the sandwich pick they received when 2004 draftee Wade Townsend refused to sign. At AAA Norfolk this year, Olson had 120 strikeouts and 39 walks in 128 innings. He isn't overpowering - he throws around 88 or 89 most of the time, or 91 on Fox. He uses a really tight breaking ball that's like a cutter with more vertical break, which got him five strikeouts in his last start against the Red Sox, as well as a changeup. In their scouting report, the Orioles broadcasters mentioned that Olson has good command of 'all 4 pitches,' which probably means that he has a slower curve in his bag of tricks too. I didn't notice it though. For a report on Olson's intangibles potential, here's the Baseball America prospect book, page 52: "Olson... has a desire to learn and improve unmatched by anyone in the organization." That's good, right?
Although Olson has a reputation for good command, he has to pitch to contact, even when he isn't feeling complete control of his pitches. When he starts nibbling, he tends to get into crises. Against Boston, Olson threw strike one to just 8 of the 30 hitters he faced, and ball one to 16 of them. He found himself pitching out of jams the whole game and left with a 4-0 deficit and two runners on. Said Olson: "I wasn't too nervous. I felt pretty good out there, actually. I just didn't have the fastball command -- or the curveball command -- at all. Early on, I was all over the place a little bit. Later on, I felt like I was able to hone in on the strike zone a little bit more and get better quality pitches." Patience counts tonight until Olson demonstrates that it doesn't. After Olson's last start, he said that Leo Mazzone kept preaching, "Establish low and away," and telling him to try to get ground balls.
Tomorrow, it's the one-of-a-kind-slow Steve Trachsel. How slow is he? I looked him up on thesaurus.com the other day and there are no synonyms for him. Over his career, Trachsel has shown a positively bizarre gift for stranding baserunners despite being that rarest of creatures, an unoverpowering righty. How does he do it? Beats me, but it's very hard to deny that he does it. He has a 73.3% career strand rate over his 15-year career, while the league average is usually around 70%. Trachsel hasn't had a LOB% below 70 since 1999. I guess his effectiveness can be attributed to his tendency to work slowly and ability to keep hitters off balance with a Crafty Lefty's arsenal of trash: a four-seamer, two-seamer, curve, change, splitter and occasional slider.
Sunday, it's Jeremy Guthrie, the Indians' first pick in the 2002 draft, 22nd overall. They gave him a big-league contract, he wasn't a big-league pitcher yet, they DFA'd him last winter, and the Orioles claimed him. Now he's movin' on up in the world. Before this year his name never got mentioned in the Russ Adams retrobashing parade. Now he's so great that folks are willing to throw him into that parade and overlook his contributions to the Indians. But talk about a find by the Orioles...
John Sickels has a scouting report on Guthrie and a timeline of his minor-league odyssey. It's a good read. Short version: Throws mid-90s with three solid offspeed pitches in his slider, curve and change. Always had the stuff, but for whatever reason it didn't translate to success. (2004: "I saw him pitch late in the season... it was very strange. He was hitting 93-94 MPH, and his breaking stuff had a lot of movement, but he wasn't fooling anyone. It was hard to understand how a pitcher with such good stuff could look so poor, especially since he threw strikes. Command wasn't the problem.") Struggled for five years in the minors, change of scenery, newfound confidence, boom.
Righties can't hit him: they're .219/.278/.324. Lefties sort of can, .261/.304/.474. Say hello to the double-play combination of Ray Olmedo and Russ Adams on Sunday. In Guthrie's brief major-league career, he has surrendered home runs to Matt Stairs and Frank Thomas.
Chris Ray has an elbow injury. He's on the DL and just beginning a three-week throwing program. The O's are hopeful that he won't need surgery. In the meantime, the Orioles' bullpen is in full-bore closer-by-committee mode, leaving the efficient-if-not-overpowering tandem of Danys Baez and Chad Bradford to close games out, and Jamie Walker to bail them out if they put runners on base and a scary lefty comes up to bat. There's also a newcomer: hard-throwing righty Jim Hoey, who gets up into the high 90s and has a good slider. He may be given save opportunities in September, just to build character.
MOUSTACHE! We have a Paul Shuey sighting! The Orioles resurrected Shuey this offseason, offering him a minor-league contract after he'd sat out all of 2006 due to thumb and hip problems.
We also have a Rob Bell sighting! Must be the second half. Once upon a time, Rob Bell was a member of the Devil Rays. In Tampa Bay green and purple, he took a no-hitter into the seventh inning against the Jays, earning a win against Roy Halladay (with an assist from Phil Cuzzi.) In those days, he was the self-professed most stylish Devil Ray, so when Rocco Baldelli looked inward and decided he needed some fashion advice, he knew where to look. Bell was delighted to have the opportunity to help out a friend in need: "For a guy who got $2-million to sign, he looks like he gets dressed in the dark." He also broke out some of his favorite sartorial browbeaters, describing Baldelli's style "fraternity house haute couture" and his preferences as tending toward "banker casual." Those were the days.
One thing to be aware of with this pen is that its stars are mostly groundball pitchers. Bradford is an extreme groundballer; Baez, Bell and Shuey are also solidly above-average at getting hitters to beat the ball into the ground. Walker, Brian Burres and Hoey are flyballers.
The O's got into their own little beanball war with the Yankees this week.
Tike Redman is in the house. After slaving away in the minors for a couple of years while the hit gods took out years of frustration on him, he has kept his cool, continued to demonstrate his outstanding strike zone control, and earned a big-league shot with the Orioles. He's platooning in left field with a very similar player in Jay Payton. Redman faced Mariano Rivera for the first time last series. Getting a hit off Rivera is an experience for a guy who's only ever seen Mo pitch on TV: "I know he throws a cutter. Basically, if it happens, it happens ... if you get a hit off a cutter like that. That's the best cutter I've ever seen. But it got in on me and I just hit it in the right spot."
J.R. House is in the building. The 27-year-old DH/catcher was signed to a minor-league contract this offseason with a clause that stated he could opt out of it on July 1 if he wasn't put on the Orioles' 25-man roster, but he missed the deadline to opt out. Last week the O's called him up anyway when Jay Gibbons got hurt.
Aubrey Huff is on fire, hitting .413/.471/.804 with four homers and 9 extra base hits in 51 PA since August 2. He has 12 runs scored and 13 RBI in his last 12 games.
And Cal Ripken Jr. was named a goodwill ambassador by Condoleezza Rice this week.
The Credit Section: All offensive stats, pitches per PA for pitchers and league average stats are from the Hardball Times. Pitchers' stats and leverage indices are from Fangraphs. Minor-league stats are from Minor League Splits and First Inning. K% and BB% are strikeouts and walks as a percentage of plate appearances; GB% + LD% + FB% = 100.
Garrett Olson is probably the Orioles' top pitching prospect right now. He's a 23-year-old lefty. The Orioles took him in 2005 with the sandwich pick they received when 2004 draftee Wade Townsend refused to sign. At AAA Norfolk this year, Olson had 120 strikeouts and 39 walks in 128 innings. He isn't overpowering - he throws around 88 or 89 most of the time, or 91 on Fox. He uses a really tight breaking ball that's like a cutter with more vertical break, which got him five strikeouts in his last start against the Red Sox, as well as a changeup. In their scouting report, the Orioles broadcasters mentioned that Olson has good command of 'all 4 pitches,' which probably means that he has a slower curve in his bag of tricks too. I didn't notice it though. For a report on Olson's intangibles potential, here's the Baseball America prospect book, page 52: "Olson... has a desire to learn and improve unmatched by anyone in the organization." That's good, right?
Although Olson has a reputation for good command, he has to pitch to contact, even when he isn't feeling complete control of his pitches. When he starts nibbling, he tends to get into crises. Against Boston, Olson threw strike one to just 8 of the 30 hitters he faced, and ball one to 16 of them. He found himself pitching out of jams the whole game and left with a 4-0 deficit and two runners on. Said Olson: "I wasn't too nervous. I felt pretty good out there, actually. I just didn't have the fastball command -- or the curveball command -- at all. Early on, I was all over the place a little bit. Later on, I felt like I was able to hone in on the strike zone a little bit more and get better quality pitches." Patience counts tonight until Olson demonstrates that it doesn't. After Olson's last start, he said that Leo Mazzone kept preaching, "Establish low and away," and telling him to try to get ground balls.
Tomorrow, it's the one-of-a-kind-slow Steve Trachsel. How slow is he? I looked him up on thesaurus.com the other day and there are no synonyms for him. Over his career, Trachsel has shown a positively bizarre gift for stranding baserunners despite being that rarest of creatures, an unoverpowering righty. How does he do it? Beats me, but it's very hard to deny that he does it. He has a 73.3% career strand rate over his 15-year career, while the league average is usually around 70%. Trachsel hasn't had a LOB% below 70 since 1999. I guess his effectiveness can be attributed to his tendency to work slowly and ability to keep hitters off balance with a Crafty Lefty's arsenal of trash: a four-seamer, two-seamer, curve, change, splitter and occasional slider.
Sunday, it's Jeremy Guthrie, the Indians' first pick in the 2002 draft, 22nd overall. They gave him a big-league contract, he wasn't a big-league pitcher yet, they DFA'd him last winter, and the Orioles claimed him. Now he's movin' on up in the world. Before this year his name never got mentioned in the Russ Adams retrobashing parade. Now he's so great that folks are willing to throw him into that parade and overlook his contributions to the Indians. But talk about a find by the Orioles...
John Sickels has a scouting report on Guthrie and a timeline of his minor-league odyssey. It's a good read. Short version: Throws mid-90s with three solid offspeed pitches in his slider, curve and change. Always had the stuff, but for whatever reason it didn't translate to success. (2004: "I saw him pitch late in the season... it was very strange. He was hitting 93-94 MPH, and his breaking stuff had a lot of movement, but he wasn't fooling anyone. It was hard to understand how a pitcher with such good stuff could look so poor, especially since he threw strikes. Command wasn't the problem.") Struggled for five years in the minors, change of scenery, newfound confidence, boom.
Righties can't hit him: they're .219/.278/.324. Lefties sort of can, .261/.304/.474. Say hello to the double-play combination of Ray Olmedo and Russ Adams on Sunday. In Guthrie's brief major-league career, he has surrendered home runs to Matt Stairs and Frank Thomas.
Chris Ray has an elbow injury. He's on the DL and just beginning a three-week throwing program. The O's are hopeful that he won't need surgery. In the meantime, the Orioles' bullpen is in full-bore closer-by-committee mode, leaving the efficient-if-not-overpowering tandem of Danys Baez and Chad Bradford to close games out, and Jamie Walker to bail them out if they put runners on base and a scary lefty comes up to bat. There's also a newcomer: hard-throwing righty Jim Hoey, who gets up into the high 90s and has a good slider. He may be given save opportunities in September, just to build character.
MOUSTACHE! We have a Paul Shuey sighting! The Orioles resurrected Shuey this offseason, offering him a minor-league contract after he'd sat out all of 2006 due to thumb and hip problems.
We also have a Rob Bell sighting! Must be the second half. Once upon a time, Rob Bell was a member of the Devil Rays. In Tampa Bay green and purple, he took a no-hitter into the seventh inning against the Jays, earning a win against Roy Halladay (with an assist from Phil Cuzzi.) In those days, he was the self-professed most stylish Devil Ray, so when Rocco Baldelli looked inward and decided he needed some fashion advice, he knew where to look. Bell was delighted to have the opportunity to help out a friend in need: "For a guy who got $2-million to sign, he looks like he gets dressed in the dark." He also broke out some of his favorite sartorial browbeaters, describing Baldelli's style "fraternity house haute couture" and his preferences as tending toward "banker casual." Those were the days.
One thing to be aware of with this pen is that its stars are mostly groundball pitchers. Bradford is an extreme groundballer; Baez, Bell and Shuey are also solidly above-average at getting hitters to beat the ball into the ground. Walker, Brian Burres and Hoey are flyballers.
The O's got into their own little beanball war with the Yankees this week.
Tike Redman is in the house. After slaving away in the minors for a couple of years while the hit gods took out years of frustration on him, he has kept his cool, continued to demonstrate his outstanding strike zone control, and earned a big-league shot with the Orioles. He's platooning in left field with a very similar player in Jay Payton. Redman faced Mariano Rivera for the first time last series. Getting a hit off Rivera is an experience for a guy who's only ever seen Mo pitch on TV: "I know he throws a cutter. Basically, if it happens, it happens ... if you get a hit off a cutter like that. That's the best cutter I've ever seen. But it got in on me and I just hit it in the right spot."
J.R. House is in the building. The 27-year-old DH/catcher was signed to a minor-league contract this offseason with a clause that stated he could opt out of it on July 1 if he wasn't put on the Orioles' 25-man roster, but he missed the deadline to opt out. Last week the O's called him up anyway when Jay Gibbons got hurt.
Aubrey Huff is on fire, hitting .413/.471/.804 with four homers and 9 extra base hits in 51 PA since August 2. He has 12 runs scored and 13 RBI in his last 12 games.
And Cal Ripken Jr. was named a goodwill ambassador by Condoleezza Rice this week.
The Credit Section: All offensive stats, pitches per PA for pitchers and league average stats are from the Hardball Times. Pitchers' stats and leverage indices are from Fangraphs. Minor-league stats are from Minor League Splits and First Inning. K% and BB% are strikeouts and walks as a percentage of plate appearances; GB% + LD% + FB% = 100.
