Three nights watching the Jays battle the Yankees. I have some random observations.
First, the big brouha-HA!. I may be the only person in North America who believes Josh Towers may actually have been telling the truth when he said he wasn't trying to drill Rodriguez on Tuesday. Towers himself doesn't expect anyone to believe him and said he fully understood why Rodriguez and the Yankees assumed it was deliberate. But his point remains - why, with a runner already aboard, would he put Rodriguez on base and bring Posada to the plate? Rodriguez is now 5-28 (.179) against Towers in his career, while Posada has hit him as well as anyone on the Yankees team (11-26, .423.)
Anyway, Joe Torre was right. If you're really that upset and think something Has To Be Done - well, that something should have happened the next time the teams met. Which was at the Stadium back in July. Towers pitched the first game of that series and nothing happened. And Towers, as we've seen before, isn't shy about taking care of this type of business.
But the combination is irresistible. Towers is a fiery guy, who has done this before when the honour of the team demanded it. Towers also has the best control of anyone on the staff. So on the one hand, it's hard to believe Towers could miss his spot that badly; and on the other hand, it's easy to believe he could hit his spot that effectively. After all, it's hard to hit a guy in the leg on purpose. The upper body - say, the middle of the back - is a much more inviting target, and doesn't move around as much.
And, of course, Rodriguez, we all agree, had it coming. Mainly for being an irritating twerp, but there it is. He is an irritating twerp and he persisted in being an irritating twerp. Bob Elliott, the next day, remembered Hideki Irabu beaning Alex Gonzalez in a spring training game. Roger Clemens, then with the Jays, drilled Derek Jeter his next time up. In spring training, mind you. And Jeter dropped his bat and went down to first base. Which is the way you're supposed to take one for the team. Some of you may also remember Carlos Delgado bowling over Doug Mientkiewicz at second base a few years ago at Fenway. Mientkiewicz, playing out of position, didn't really know what he was doing in the middle of the diamond and the Red Sox thought Delgado should have cut him a little slack. So Derek Lowe drilled Delgado later in the game; Delgado took his punishment, smiling ruefully, and trotted down to first.
Anyway, this New York team is one scary outfit. It seemed to be Cano and Cabrera driving balls to the gap every other inning. You can see how that happens. After a pitcher picks his way through the minefield that is the top of the order - Jeter! Abreu! Rodriguez! Posada! Matsui! - there's almost a visible relaxation when you get to the bottom of the lineup. Thing is, Cano has an OBP of .357 and is slugging better than .500 - in other words, he's roughly equivalent to Alex Rios. Plus, since the All-Star Break, Cano has been completely out of his skull, posting a pretty nifty .419/.473/.749 line.
Clemens was interesting. It had been years since I'd seen him in person, and my first reaction was - wow! he's lost 5-6 mph off everything! He really is 45 years old! But it turns out that the old man actually knows how to pitch. He used the rest of his repertoire much more, and much more effectively, than he used to in the days when he could simply blow hitters away at will with the heater and the splitter. He brought out lots of curves and sliders and even mixed in a straight change once or twice. And he demonstrated to Reed Johnson that he's not so old that he can't get down off the mound and field his position.
But Derek Jeter looks really, really tired. He's 32 now, and he's played a lot of baseball over the years. I think he could use a little more time off than he's getting (he's played all but two games this year). He looked like an old man in the field last night - he's never been very good on balls hit to his left (which is kind of a problem if you play shortstop) - but I swear Troy Glaus (who is younger than Jeter, after all) would have made at least two plays that Jeter couldn't manage on Wednesday.
Well, I thought I'd make a Data Table. I just can't decide which one. Two subjects are on my mind. One is Run Support for starters. Here are the raw numbers, taken from yesterday's Gme Notes as distributed in the ball park. (I've updated the Halladay figure.)
There are a few other things we'd like to know, however. For example, how many of these Supporting Runs actually crossed the plate while the starter was still in the game? I remember noticing early on in the 2005 season that while Josh Towers and Dave Bush had both received identical run support through their first dozen or so starts, more than half the runs the Jays scored in support of Bush had actually scored after Bush had left the game. Which was why, despite similar pitching performances, and apparently equivalent run support, Bush was 0-5 at the time while Towers was 5-1. This year, the Jays scored 9 runs in A.J. Burnett's second start, but Burnett was long gone when all this good fortune happened.
Anyway - of the 533 runs the team has scored this season, 387 (72.6 %) came while the starter was still in the game. So let's do that table again, and add that bit of information. And as well as giving Runs Per Start, we'll give Runs Per Nine Innings.
I assure you, it's not like this every year!
The other thing I'd want to somehow take into account are the Excess runs. There comes a time when a team is just piling it on - why, just last night was one of those times, and good times they are! - but still. The Jays scored 15 runs while Roy Halladay was in the game last night - and four other times, they've gone into double digits behind Doc. That's a major reason why Halladay's Run Support is so much better than everyone else - he's been on the hill when the bats went completely berserk. This, of course, is an unfortunate waste of resources. After all, Roy Halladay doesn't need 10 runs to win a game (not normally - he did come away with a no decision in one of those five games.) But, alas, it's nothing you can plan or control, it's just Random Fate - and it's a special kind of bad luck, in a way.
Pitchers winning with:
0 runs -
1 run - Towers, Marcum
2 runs - Litsch (3), Halladay (2), Burnett, Chacin, Towers
3 runs - McGowan
4 runs - McGowan, Marcum
5 runs - Burnett, McGowan, Towers
6 runs - Halladay (3), Burnett (2), Marcum (2)
7 runs - McGowan (3), Ohka (2), Halladay, Chacin, Marcum
8 runs - Halladay (3)
9 runs - Burnett, Marcum, McGowan
10+ runs - Halladay (4), McGowan, Towers, Litsch, Marcum
The AL is averaging 4.9 runs per game this season. So another way to look at pitcher Run Support is to simply make three categories: 3 runs or less is Below Average Support; 4-6 runs is Average Support; 7 runs or more is Above Average Support. Let's take one last look at the starters:
It would be nice if you could actually tell the hitters to take it easy, Halladay's pitching - save some for the other guys. In 7 of his 15 starts, Josh Towers has had either one or two runs to work with. That the team has gone 3-4 in those games is really very impressive. And Jesse Litsch has had it just as bad, with the team scoring just one or two runs in 5 of his 10 starts. The young fellow most definitely rose to the occasion, winning three of them anyway.
Next time, I'm going to mess around with Inherited Runners. Which starters, if any have been snakebitten. And which relievers, if any, are bailing out their team mates.
First, the big brouha-HA!. I may be the only person in North America who believes Josh Towers may actually have been telling the truth when he said he wasn't trying to drill Rodriguez on Tuesday. Towers himself doesn't expect anyone to believe him and said he fully understood why Rodriguez and the Yankees assumed it was deliberate. But his point remains - why, with a runner already aboard, would he put Rodriguez on base and bring Posada to the plate? Rodriguez is now 5-28 (.179) against Towers in his career, while Posada has hit him as well as anyone on the Yankees team (11-26, .423.)
Anyway, Joe Torre was right. If you're really that upset and think something Has To Be Done - well, that something should have happened the next time the teams met. Which was at the Stadium back in July. Towers pitched the first game of that series and nothing happened. And Towers, as we've seen before, isn't shy about taking care of this type of business.
But the combination is irresistible. Towers is a fiery guy, who has done this before when the honour of the team demanded it. Towers also has the best control of anyone on the staff. So on the one hand, it's hard to believe Towers could miss his spot that badly; and on the other hand, it's easy to believe he could hit his spot that effectively. After all, it's hard to hit a guy in the leg on purpose. The upper body - say, the middle of the back - is a much more inviting target, and doesn't move around as much.
And, of course, Rodriguez, we all agree, had it coming. Mainly for being an irritating twerp, but there it is. He is an irritating twerp and he persisted in being an irritating twerp. Bob Elliott, the next day, remembered Hideki Irabu beaning Alex Gonzalez in a spring training game. Roger Clemens, then with the Jays, drilled Derek Jeter his next time up. In spring training, mind you. And Jeter dropped his bat and went down to first base. Which is the way you're supposed to take one for the team. Some of you may also remember Carlos Delgado bowling over Doug Mientkiewicz at second base a few years ago at Fenway. Mientkiewicz, playing out of position, didn't really know what he was doing in the middle of the diamond and the Red Sox thought Delgado should have cut him a little slack. So Derek Lowe drilled Delgado later in the game; Delgado took his punishment, smiling ruefully, and trotted down to first.
Anyway, this New York team is one scary outfit. It seemed to be Cano and Cabrera driving balls to the gap every other inning. You can see how that happens. After a pitcher picks his way through the minefield that is the top of the order - Jeter! Abreu! Rodriguez! Posada! Matsui! - there's almost a visible relaxation when you get to the bottom of the lineup. Thing is, Cano has an OBP of .357 and is slugging better than .500 - in other words, he's roughly equivalent to Alex Rios. Plus, since the All-Star Break, Cano has been completely out of his skull, posting a pretty nifty .419/.473/.749 line.
Clemens was interesting. It had been years since I'd seen him in person, and my first reaction was - wow! he's lost 5-6 mph off everything! He really is 45 years old! But it turns out that the old man actually knows how to pitch. He used the rest of his repertoire much more, and much more effectively, than he used to in the days when he could simply blow hitters away at will with the heater and the splitter. He brought out lots of curves and sliders and even mixed in a straight change once or twice. And he demonstrated to Reed Johnson that he's not so old that he can't get down off the mound and field his position.
But Derek Jeter looks really, really tired. He's 32 now, and he's played a lot of baseball over the years. I think he could use a little more time off than he's getting (he's played all but two games this year). He looked like an old man in the field last night - he's never been very good on balls hit to his left (which is kind of a problem if you play shortstop) - but I swear Troy Glaus (who is younger than Jeter, after all) would have made at least two plays that Jeter couldn't manage on Wednesday.
Well, I thought I'd make a Data Table. I just can't decide which one. Two subjects are on my mind. One is Run Support for starters. Here are the raw numbers, taken from yesterday's Gme Notes as distributed in the ball park. (I've updated the Halladay figure.)
Pitcher Starts Runs Runs Per Start
Taubenheim 1 11 11.0
Halladay 22 134 6.1
Chacin 5 25 5.0
McGowan 17 82 4.8
TEAM AVG 113 533 4.7
Ohka 10 47 4.7
Burnett 15 66 4.4
Marcum 16 70 4.4
Zambrano 2 8 4.0
Litsch 10 37 3.7
Towers 15 53 3.5
There are a few other things we'd like to know, however. For example, how many of these Supporting Runs actually crossed the plate while the starter was still in the game? I remember noticing early on in the 2005 season that while Josh Towers and Dave Bush had both received identical run support through their first dozen or so starts, more than half the runs the Jays scored in support of Bush had actually scored after Bush had left the game. Which was why, despite similar pitching performances, and apparently equivalent run support, Bush was 0-5 at the time while Towers was 5-1. This year, the Jays scored 9 runs in A.J. Burnett's second start, but Burnett was long gone when all this good fortune happened.
Anyway - of the 533 runs the team has scored this season, 387 (72.6 %) came while the starter was still in the game. So let's do that table again, and add that bit of information. And as well as giving Runs Per Start, we'll give Runs Per Nine Innings.
Pitcher Starts IP Runs Runs in Game Pct. Runs Per Start Runs Per Nine IPIt's worth knowing, but as it turns out, this year all we're doing is confirming the obvious. Most of the runs in support of Roy Halladay come while Halladay is still in the game? Well, duh. Halladay pitches deeper into games than anyone else on the team. And everyone, even Josh Towers and Tomo Ohka, pitches deeper into games than Gustavo Chacin (not to mention Zambrano and Taubenheim.) So as it happens, the percentage of runs scored that come while the starter is still in the game matches almost perfectly how deep a starter goes.
Taubenheim 1 5 11 6 .545 11.0 10.8
Halladay 22 151 134 113 .843 6.1 6.7
Chacin 5 27.1 25 11 .440 5.0 3.6
McGowan 17 105 82 60 .731 4.8 5.1
TEAM AVG 113 681 533 387 .726 4.7 5.1
Ohka 10 56 47 30 .638 4.7 4.8
Burnett 15 94 66 52 .788 4.4 5.0
Marcum 16 97.2 70 50 .714 4.4 4.6
Zambrano 2 5.1 8 4 .500 4.0 6.8
Litsch 10 54.1 37 26 .703 3.7 4.3
Towers 15 85.1 53 35 .660 3.5 3.7
I assure you, it's not like this every year!
The other thing I'd want to somehow take into account are the Excess runs. There comes a time when a team is just piling it on - why, just last night was one of those times, and good times they are! - but still. The Jays scored 15 runs while Roy Halladay was in the game last night - and four other times, they've gone into double digits behind Doc. That's a major reason why Halladay's Run Support is so much better than everyone else - he's been on the hill when the bats went completely berserk. This, of course, is an unfortunate waste of resources. After all, Roy Halladay doesn't need 10 runs to win a game (not normally - he did come away with a no decision in one of those five games.) But, alas, it's nothing you can plan or control, it's just Random Fate - and it's a special kind of bad luck, in a way.
Pitcher 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+ runs
Halladay 2 - 3 2 2 1 3 1 3 - 5
McGowan - 1 1 4 3 3 - 3 - 1 1
Marcum - 5 - 1 4 1 2 1 - 1 1
Burnett 1 - 4 1 2 2 2 1 - 2 -
Towers - 2 5 4 1 1 - - - 1 1
Litsch - 1 4 2 1 1 - - - - 1
Ohka - 2 1 1 1 1 - 2 1 1 -
Chacin - - 1 1 - 1 - 1 1 - -
Zambrano - - 1 - - - 1 - - - -
Taubenheim - - - - - - - - - - 1
TOTAL 3 11 20 16 14 11 8 9 5 6 10
WINS 0 3 8 2 3 7 7 8 4 5 10
LOSSES 3 8 12 14 11 4 1 1 1 1 0
Pitchers winning with:
0 runs -
1 run - Towers, Marcum
2 runs - Litsch (3), Halladay (2), Burnett, Chacin, Towers
3 runs - McGowan
4 runs - McGowan, Marcum
5 runs - Burnett, McGowan, Towers
6 runs - Halladay (3), Burnett (2), Marcum (2)
7 runs - McGowan (3), Ohka (2), Halladay, Chacin, Marcum
8 runs - Halladay (3)
9 runs - Burnett, Marcum, McGowan
10+ runs - Halladay (4), McGowan, Towers, Litsch, Marcum
The AL is averaging 4.9 runs per game this season. So another way to look at pitcher Run Support is to simply make three categories: 3 runs or less is Below Average Support; 4-6 runs is Average Support; 7 runs or more is Above Average Support. Let's take one last look at the starters:
Pitcher Starts Below Average Above
Halladay 22 7 6 9
McGowan 17 6 6 5
Marcum 16 6 7 3
Burnett 15 6 6 3
Towers 15 11 2 2
Litsch 10 7 2 1
Ohka 10 4 2 4
Chacin 5 2 1 2
Zambrano 2 1 1 0
Taubenheim 1 0 0 1
It would be nice if you could actually tell the hitters to take it easy, Halladay's pitching - save some for the other guys. In 7 of his 15 starts, Josh Towers has had either one or two runs to work with. That the team has gone 3-4 in those games is really very impressive. And Jesse Litsch has had it just as bad, with the team scoring just one or two runs in 5 of his 10 starts. The young fellow most definitely rose to the occasion, winning three of them anyway.
Next time, I'm going to mess around with Inherited Runners. Which starters, if any have been snakebitten. And which relievers, if any, are bailing out their team mates.
