The Rangers fell in April and never got up. Last week, they decided to clean house and devote the remainder of the season to figuring out what kind of talent they have in-house. So, goodbye to Kenny Lofton, Eric Gagne and Mark Teixeira, all of whom fetched a respectable return on the trade market. And hello to the first wave of prospects, led by Jason Botts and the guy from Atlanta with the long name.
While the Jays were fumbling around in Tampa, the Rangers were off doing their dirty work, taking 2 of 3 from Cleveland at the Jake to keep the Jays only 7.5 games out of the wild card.
It's a pair of aces tonight as Roy Halladay faces Kevin Millwood. Millwood is making nearly $10 million this year to put up a 5.95 ERA. He is so nondescript it's not even interesting. He's got a fastball that ranges from 90 to 95, a hard slider, and a slow 12-6 curve in the mid-70s. He also has a show changeup. His numbers are as average as average can be, with two notable exceptions. His strand rate is bad, and his hit luck is uncharacteristically awful. His career BABIP against is .301; his 2007 figure is .354. What's going on?!
Steve West at Go Rangers! may have solved it. His theory concerning Millwood's sudden fall is that he's tipping his breaking pitches. Say it ain't so! Check out this Gameday-powered analysis of Millwood's release points, which reveals a pronounced difference between his fastball release point and trash release point. As West puts it: "He’s throwing the curve and slider in a similar position, but the fastball is being released about 7 inches right and 5 inches higher. Tell me that’s not a huge difference! I believe a major league hitter would pick up on this and be able to tell fastball or not, and that could very easily be the difference in being able to hit it or not." Fascinating. Millwood also appears to follow righty pitchers' standard preference for curveballs against lefties and sliders against righties, which can only help hitters know exactly what's coming.
My first reaction to this study was that I'd love to see something like this done on Josh Towers, who seems to run into bad hit and homer rates every single year. Towers' raw stuff is very pedestrian, and if he's tipping his pitches, it's amazing he's lasted all year in the majors.
For what it's worth, Millwood has been battling the flu this week. He is still very likely to make his start tonight.
Most current Jays have rotten numbers against Millwood. Zaun is 1-13 with 5 K and a walk. Vernon is 1-11 with 2 K and a walk. Matt Stairs is 4-20 with 6 K and 2 walks. Aaron Hill, 2-10 with 2 K. The lone bright light is Frank Thomas, who's 10-18 with 2 homers and a double.
Tomorrow, it's a 6'8" center from Cal State Northridge, "Tall" Kameron Loe, facing Shaun Marcum. My one indelible image of Loe is from Sunday, July 10, 2005, in the eighth inning of the last game of The Series From Hell. With the score tied 5-5 and one out, and the Jays in desperate need of anything positive to take away from Arlington, Loe faced John McDonald with one out and Eric Hinske on third. McDonald hit a high chopper about 50 feet into the air that I swear would've been over just about every other pitcher in baseball. Not Loe, who is very tall and apparently in possession of one impressive combination of mad hops and madder reflexes. He made an incredible leaping catch for the groundout and then retired Russ Adams casually to escape the mess. The Rangers scored 4 in the bottom, the Jays scored 3 in the 9th, and it all amounted to a third straight gut-wrenching loss, 9-8. It was terrible...
Loe has a sinker, a curve and changeup. He is a solid groundball pitcher who pitches to contact. (In other words, Marcum gets to deal with yet another big scary Fausto type with only a gang of lumbering righty power hitters behind him. Poor guy.) The sinker hangs around 90, with the curve in the high 80s. I'll just link over to Steve West again since his analysis of the Rangers' starters is remarkably exhaustive and awesome.
He isn't established as a big-league starter just yer - he isn't really an extreme groundballer, and his K/BB figures are a bit mediocre for any but the most extreme groundballing fiends - but I think he's certainly deserving of a full-season audition, especially for the Rangers, who play in one of the best hitters' parks in baseball. Plus, it is my entirely subjective opinion that sinker machines are 6000 times more likely to win games in 120-degree Texas heat than they are in normal Earth weather.
Loe has pronounced splits. His K/BB ratio shows no platoon splits in the small sample, but righties hit .266/.337/.392, while lefties hit .328/.380/.522. So lefties seem to hit his sinker much harder. I'm starting Stairs and Olmedo tomorrow, and maybe even Howie Clark.
According to Wikipedia, Loe has a 7-foot boa constrictor which he keeps in the Rangers' clubhouse. The boa's name is Angel.
Sunday, it's a 6'7" forward from Lamar, Colorado, "Tall" Brandon McCarthy. Like Loe, McCarthy throws a fastball around 90, a curve and a change, and is tall. However, the similarities end abruptly right there.
Unlike Loe, McCarthy is a big flyball pitcher who looked like a strikeout artist in the making throughout his minor-league career. McCarthy's poor peripheral stats this year have very little to do with a conscious pitch-to-contact approach and much more to do with a surprising degree of ineffectiveness. McCarthy shredded AAA at age 22 and was very successful as a reliever for the White Sox. His change looks like it should be a devastating strikeout pitch, especially since it's often 12 or more mph slower than the fastball and it comes from McCarthy's way-up-high arm slot.
Take away his disastrous April and McCarthy is actually having a successful year despite his inability to get strikeouts. Since May 1, he has a 3.69 ERA, and he's averaged more than 5 innings per start. There is still lots of room to improve but he's hanging in there as a flyballer in a tough hitters' park.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia has been playing first base and batting out of the 7-hole for the Rangers. At 14 letters, Saltalamacchia has the longest surname in the history of the phylum Chordata. It's loads of fun to say but torture to try to fit on a jersey. Imagine if he got sent to the Jays, with their way-too-big font. Quoth equipment manager Zack Minasian: "First, I had to learn to spell it. I looked at Catalanotto and that's 11 letters. That goes from armpit to armpit so there was no way I was going to use regular thick letters for Saltalamacchia. So I went with the thin letters. I don't normally do that, but in this case, I had no choice."
Salty will catch twice a week, spelling Gerald Laird, according to the Rangers' master plan. Adam Melhuse is the odd man out. Says he: "It looks like AB's are going to be tough to come by in the next two months, but next year might look good. The way I see it, I don't anticipate them bringing Saltalamacchia in here to back up. They'll either have him playing behind the plate every day or playing first base every day. I just need to be patient." At least this year he's got a manager who talks to him.
If you believe in the Ewing Theory, which states that the Rangers will improve as a team without their brightest offensive star, then Scott Lucas would like to introduce you to your Rangers Ewing Theory MVP: Brad ".223/.301/.462" Wilkerson.
Joaquin Benoit and leftander C.J. Wilson will share closing duties for the Rangers in the absence of Eric Gagne and Akinori Otsuka. Benoit is the Rangers' version of Jason Frasor (plus five or seven inches) and figures to get a nice payday when he hits free agency after next year. Wilson was fiddling with the gyroball in spring training with Tezuka-san himself. He has been murder on lefthanded batters and may be used as a LOOGY in the ninth. Pinch-hit at your own risk.
With the acquisition of Kason Gabbard, the Rangers sent sinkerballing lefty Jamey Wright to the bullpen, where he'll serve as their Lenny DiNardo: high groundball rate, bad peripherals, will come in when the Rangers need to turn the lineup around or get a lefty to beat the ball into the ground.
27-year-old DH Jason (Intelligent Infinite) Botts has emerged as a slugging machine in AAA this year. He's getting a full-time audition as a cleanup-hitting DH. He's never slugged like this before - his career minor-league stats aren't quite at Jack Cust levels - but it's worth a shot.
I wonder if rookie reliever A.J. Murray has ever gone by his given first name... or if he did once and then stopped at the exact moment he landed in the Rangers organization.
And Sammy Sosa will be used primarily as a bench player while the Rangers audition their kids. Outwardly, Sosa is cool with it.
The Credit Section: All offensive stats, pitches per PA for pitchers and league average stats are from the Hardball Times. Pitchers' stats and leverage indices are from Fangraphs. Minor-league stats are from Minor League Splits and First Inning. K% and BB% are strikeouts and walks as a percentage of plate appearances; GB% + LD% + FB% = 100.
While the Jays were fumbling around in Tampa, the Rangers were off doing their dirty work, taking 2 of 3 from Cleveland at the Jake to keep the Jays only 7.5 games out of the wild card.
It's a pair of aces tonight as Roy Halladay faces Kevin Millwood. Millwood is making nearly $10 million this year to put up a 5.95 ERA. He is so nondescript it's not even interesting. He's got a fastball that ranges from 90 to 95, a hard slider, and a slow 12-6 curve in the mid-70s. He also has a show changeup. His numbers are as average as average can be, with two notable exceptions. His strand rate is bad, and his hit luck is uncharacteristically awful. His career BABIP against is .301; his 2007 figure is .354. What's going on?!
Steve West at Go Rangers! may have solved it. His theory concerning Millwood's sudden fall is that he's tipping his breaking pitches. Say it ain't so! Check out this Gameday-powered analysis of Millwood's release points, which reveals a pronounced difference between his fastball release point and trash release point. As West puts it: "He’s throwing the curve and slider in a similar position, but the fastball is being released about 7 inches right and 5 inches higher. Tell me that’s not a huge difference! I believe a major league hitter would pick up on this and be able to tell fastball or not, and that could very easily be the difference in being able to hit it or not." Fascinating. Millwood also appears to follow righty pitchers' standard preference for curveballs against lefties and sliders against righties, which can only help hitters know exactly what's coming.
My first reaction to this study was that I'd love to see something like this done on Josh Towers, who seems to run into bad hit and homer rates every single year. Towers' raw stuff is very pedestrian, and if he's tipping his pitches, it's amazing he's lasted all year in the majors.
For what it's worth, Millwood has been battling the flu this week. He is still very likely to make his start tonight.
Most current Jays have rotten numbers against Millwood. Zaun is 1-13 with 5 K and a walk. Vernon is 1-11 with 2 K and a walk. Matt Stairs is 4-20 with 6 K and 2 walks. Aaron Hill, 2-10 with 2 K. The lone bright light is Frank Thomas, who's 10-18 with 2 homers and a double.
Tomorrow, it's a 6'8" center from Cal State Northridge, "Tall" Kameron Loe, facing Shaun Marcum. My one indelible image of Loe is from Sunday, July 10, 2005, in the eighth inning of the last game of The Series From Hell. With the score tied 5-5 and one out, and the Jays in desperate need of anything positive to take away from Arlington, Loe faced John McDonald with one out and Eric Hinske on third. McDonald hit a high chopper about 50 feet into the air that I swear would've been over just about every other pitcher in baseball. Not Loe, who is very tall and apparently in possession of one impressive combination of mad hops and madder reflexes. He made an incredible leaping catch for the groundout and then retired Russ Adams casually to escape the mess. The Rangers scored 4 in the bottom, the Jays scored 3 in the 9th, and it all amounted to a third straight gut-wrenching loss, 9-8. It was terrible...
Loe has a sinker, a curve and changeup. He is a solid groundball pitcher who pitches to contact. (In other words, Marcum gets to deal with yet another big scary Fausto type with only a gang of lumbering righty power hitters behind him. Poor guy.) The sinker hangs around 90, with the curve in the high 80s. I'll just link over to Steve West again since his analysis of the Rangers' starters is remarkably exhaustive and awesome.
He isn't established as a big-league starter just yer - he isn't really an extreme groundballer, and his K/BB figures are a bit mediocre for any but the most extreme groundballing fiends - but I think he's certainly deserving of a full-season audition, especially for the Rangers, who play in one of the best hitters' parks in baseball. Plus, it is my entirely subjective opinion that sinker machines are 6000 times more likely to win games in 120-degree Texas heat than they are in normal Earth weather.
Loe has pronounced splits. His K/BB ratio shows no platoon splits in the small sample, but righties hit .266/.337/.392, while lefties hit .328/.380/.522. So lefties seem to hit his sinker much harder. I'm starting Stairs and Olmedo tomorrow, and maybe even Howie Clark.
According to Wikipedia, Loe has a 7-foot boa constrictor which he keeps in the Rangers' clubhouse. The boa's name is Angel.
Sunday, it's a 6'7" forward from Lamar, Colorado, "Tall" Brandon McCarthy. Like Loe, McCarthy throws a fastball around 90, a curve and a change, and is tall. However, the similarities end abruptly right there.
Unlike Loe, McCarthy is a big flyball pitcher who looked like a strikeout artist in the making throughout his minor-league career. McCarthy's poor peripheral stats this year have very little to do with a conscious pitch-to-contact approach and much more to do with a surprising degree of ineffectiveness. McCarthy shredded AAA at age 22 and was very successful as a reliever for the White Sox. His change looks like it should be a devastating strikeout pitch, especially since it's often 12 or more mph slower than the fastball and it comes from McCarthy's way-up-high arm slot.
Take away his disastrous April and McCarthy is actually having a successful year despite his inability to get strikeouts. Since May 1, he has a 3.69 ERA, and he's averaged more than 5 innings per start. There is still lots of room to improve but he's hanging in there as a flyballer in a tough hitters' park.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia has been playing first base and batting out of the 7-hole for the Rangers. At 14 letters, Saltalamacchia has the longest surname in the history of the phylum Chordata. It's loads of fun to say but torture to try to fit on a jersey. Imagine if he got sent to the Jays, with their way-too-big font. Quoth equipment manager Zack Minasian: "First, I had to learn to spell it. I looked at Catalanotto and that's 11 letters. That goes from armpit to armpit so there was no way I was going to use regular thick letters for Saltalamacchia. So I went with the thin letters. I don't normally do that, but in this case, I had no choice."
Salty will catch twice a week, spelling Gerald Laird, according to the Rangers' master plan. Adam Melhuse is the odd man out. Says he: "It looks like AB's are going to be tough to come by in the next two months, but next year might look good. The way I see it, I don't anticipate them bringing Saltalamacchia in here to back up. They'll either have him playing behind the plate every day or playing first base every day. I just need to be patient." At least this year he's got a manager who talks to him.
If you believe in the Ewing Theory, which states that the Rangers will improve as a team without their brightest offensive star, then Scott Lucas would like to introduce you to your Rangers Ewing Theory MVP: Brad ".223/.301/.462" Wilkerson.
Joaquin Benoit and leftander C.J. Wilson will share closing duties for the Rangers in the absence of Eric Gagne and Akinori Otsuka. Benoit is the Rangers' version of Jason Frasor (plus five or seven inches) and figures to get a nice payday when he hits free agency after next year. Wilson was fiddling with the gyroball in spring training with Tezuka-san himself. He has been murder on lefthanded batters and may be used as a LOOGY in the ninth. Pinch-hit at your own risk.
With the acquisition of Kason Gabbard, the Rangers sent sinkerballing lefty Jamey Wright to the bullpen, where he'll serve as their Lenny DiNardo: high groundball rate, bad peripherals, will come in when the Rangers need to turn the lineup around or get a lefty to beat the ball into the ground.
27-year-old DH Jason (Intelligent Infinite) Botts has emerged as a slugging machine in AAA this year. He's getting a full-time audition as a cleanup-hitting DH. He's never slugged like this before - his career minor-league stats aren't quite at Jack Cust levels - but it's worth a shot.
I wonder if rookie reliever A.J. Murray has ever gone by his given first name... or if he did once and then stopped at the exact moment he landed in the Rangers organization.
And Sammy Sosa will be used primarily as a bench player while the Rangers audition their kids. Outwardly, Sosa is cool with it.
The Credit Section: All offensive stats, pitches per PA for pitchers and league average stats are from the Hardball Times. Pitchers' stats and leverage indices are from Fangraphs. Minor-league stats are from Minor League Splits and First Inning. K% and BB% are strikeouts and walks as a percentage of plate appearances; GB% + LD% + FB% = 100.
