Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

Free Anonymous Reliever!

Scott Linebrink was acquired by the Brewers this week for a trio of minor league pitchers. None are considered exceptional prospects, but it's still seems like a good return for a reliever who hasn't been pitching well lately.

Linebrink has pitched 45 innings this year, has a 106 ERA+, and a 25/14 K/BB ratio. He's allowed 1 HR every 5 innings. Even last year he wasn't that great putting up an ERA+ of 118, although his K/BB ratio in 76 innings was 68/22 and he gave up just 1 HR every 8 innings or so. Linebrink is 30 and a free agent after the season.

Anonymous Reliever is 29 and has an ERA+ of 108 last year and this year and a career ERA+ of 120. He strikes out a batter an inning, has a K/BB in excess of 2:1, and has given up just 3 HRs in 38.1 innings this year. He has two arbitration years remaining before becoming a free agent.

If Linebrink has that kind of value a week before the deadline wouldn't you think that Anonymous Reliever would have similar value now? I would think so, but their perceived value is probably a lot different.

Well, Anonymous Reliever is sitting in the Jays bullpen rotting away. Jason Frasor is pitching once/week these days, usually in mop up duty. If the Jays don't have a need for him I wonder if there's a team out there that recognizes that he's a pretty good and pretty consistent pitcher?

Another move that I wouldn't mind is picking up Russ Branyan. The Padres released him yesterday. His BA is .197 which looks pretty bad, but his OPS+ is just north of 100. I'm not sure if he's a butcher in the field or not, but he's played in the OF, 3B, and 1B and would be a nice LH power option off the bench. Branyan's isolated slugging % is almost better than Howie Clark's slugging %.

Posted by Pistol on Sunday, July 29 2007 @ 09:30 AM EDT.

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China fan - Sunday, July 29 2007 @ 10:46 AM EDT (#172220) #

I'm currently in Tokyo and yesterday I strolled over to Jingu Stadium to catch the game between Yakult Swallows and Chunichi Dragons. The leading home-run hitter for the Swallows is our very own Canadian compatriot, Aaron Guiel of Vancouver, who has slugged 21 homers this year already. He's on quite a roll -- he banged two homers on Friday and another one yesterday. Whenever he comes to bat, the stadium plays his theme song: "New Orleans is Sinking" by the Tragically Hip. (It's a nice thrill to hear a great Canadian band in a stadium in Japan. Aaron wanted them to play a different Hip song for each of his plate appearances, but it was too confusing for the Japanese, so he settled for "New Orleans" each time.)

This is Guiel's first year in Japan, and he's become quite a fan favorite already. Here's a recent quote from a Tokyo newspaper about him: "With his cheerful demeanor and his curly blond hair spilling from his cap, some fans have taken to calling him 'Angel.' "

As you might recall, Guiel was drafted in 1992 and made it to the majors at age 29 with Kansas City. He played five seasons with the Royals. His best year was 2003 when he hit 15 homers for the Royals. Last year he was a member of the Canadian team that beat the Americans in the World Baseball Classic. In mid-season last year, he was picked up on waivers by the Yankees, where he played 44 games, hit 4 homers and recorded an OPS+ of 104. Perhaps, as a left-handed bat and potential fourth outfielder for the Jays, he might be almost as good a recruit as Russ Branyan? (I admit that Branyan has better career numbers, but Guiel's slugging percentage and OPS+ in 2006 were superior to Branyan's numbers this year.)

Jim - Sunday, July 29 2007 @ 10:50 AM EDT (#172221) #

Part of Linebrink's value is that he is a free agent this coming offseason. Milwaukee paid more in prospects because they anticipate getting the picks when he signs.

Mike Green - Sunday, July 29 2007 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#172223) #

The Brewers have to offer him arbitration in order to get the picks. There's a real risk that he would accept arbitration knowing that he might do better that way than through free agency.

Leigh - Sunday, July 29 2007 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#172228) #

Mike, in the Jays season preview, I wrote this:

...

Leverage, a stat tracked by Baseball Prospectus and defined on their site as the "change in the probability of winning the game from scoring (or allowing) one additional run in the current game situation divided by the change in probability from scoring (or allowing) one run at the start of the game" is a good measure of the trust that a manager has been putting in a reliever.

This table lists Jays' relievers (minimum 30 relief innings pitched) in order of leverage in each of the past three seasons. Keep in mind that leverage is a rate stat, so the quantity of innings - once the 30 relief innings threshold is past - is irrelevant.

Rank	2004	2005	2006
1	Frasor	Batista	Ryan
2	Adams	Frasor	Speier
3	Speier	Schoeneweis	League
4	Ligtenberg	Walker	Schoeneweis
5	Chulk	Chulk	Downs
6	File	Speier	Frasor

As you can see, Frasor has been afforded a decreasing level of trust over the past three seasons, bottoming out at sub-LOOGY leverage in 2006. Using Frasor as a high-leverage setup man may prove difficult for Gibby, though Frasor is clearly qualified for the job.

...

Now in 2007, using the same method, Frasor is fourth behind Accardo, Janssen and Downs. He would likely be sixth again (behind Ryan and Marcum) but for the injuries. Frasor performs well and Gibby doesn't seem to trust him: this is the continuation of a baffling trend.

Jim - Sunday, July 29 2007 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#172230) #

The Brewers have to offer him arbitration in order to get the picks.

True. But it seems to be their thinking. Otherwise the trade makes even less sense.

katman - Sunday, July 29 2007 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#172231) #

Frasor's issue is his performance in high leverage situations, something the stat cited does not isolate. His consistency seems to sort of go away when thrust into pressure roles like closing, and he seems to alternate strings of long consistency with mutliple blowups in the setup role. That tends to get you demoted from such roles, and multiple demotions over time create an impression in the organization that maybe he can't handle it. Leading to lower leverage use - and also diminished trade value because now you're putting a ceiling over your head.

Meanwhile, the Jays have Janssen as one of the better setup guys in the league this year - probably followed by League in 2008, as they really want to see what he can do. Which makes Frasor setup man insurance IF League implodes AND Janssen finds that he is both needed in the rotation and does well there. Prediction for 2008: barring injuries, expect another low leverage year.

Frasor has very good stuff, and should be able to pitch and thrive in a setup role. Thus far, whatever the Jays have been trying hasn't quite unlocked that, and others have passed him by. It may take a new organization to help him reach his full potential - the Mets and/or Cardinals come to mind as good options, but I don't see a trade this year from either team.

Pistol - Sunday, July 29 2007 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#172232) #

There's a real risk that he would accept arbitration knowing that he might do better that way than through free agency.

Why would he do better through arbitration than free agency? There's no reason to believe salaries are going to be declining, and there's plenty of teams that will need relievers. I think he's more likely to get a 3 year deal from a team than something less than what he'd get in arbitration. The SS Loogy got 3 years and over $10 million last year and he was terrible.

And even if Linebrick did accept arbitration the Brewers would have a decent reliever on a one year contract. I'd think they'd like that. It's only a risk if the player is bad and/or you're strapped for money (which I don't believe the Brewers are).

jerjapan - Sunday, July 29 2007 @ 11:19 PM EDT (#172237) #

Frasor's a former 33rd round draft pick who's had an era under four once in his career, and has averaged close to 4 walks per 9 innings. He was demoted to triple A last year, never a good sign, and I seem to recall him blowing late leads in two consecutive games earlier this year. You can't survive as a key reliever if you are inconsistent - it gets you buried. He's not worthless, but he's nowhere near Linebrink. Jansen will be in the rotation next year for sure, meaning Frasor should get some more leverage innings next year, but his value is pretty low at the moment.

Looking to sell high? Scott Downs is having a great year ...

scottt - Monday, July 30 2007 @ 07:43 AM EDT (#172242) #

Looking to sell high? Scott Downs is having a great year ...

Is he? He's in a totally different role. His ERA is down, but that's comparing a situational lefty to a spot starter.
His walk to strike out ratio is pretty much the same. His opponent batting average is down, but isn't that just because he's faced more LHB and less RHB.

Is he expendable? It would be hard for the right handed pitchers in the pen to fill the blank.

Jim - Monday, July 30 2007 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#172244) #

I think he's more likely to get a 3 year deal from a team than something less than what he'd get in arbitration.

All he needs is Jim Hendry to keep his job and he's months away from 11MM over 3.

Chuck - Monday, July 30 2007 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#172246) #

All he needs is Jim Hendry to keep his job and he's months away from 11MM over 3.

How about Ed Wade? I bet he's sitting on a bar stool somewhere, champing at the bit to get re-hired, writing up mock contracts on cocktail napkins. "All those free agent middle relievers... it's just killing me."

And pinstripes, of course, are always an option for any FA reliever.

Dave Till - Monday, July 30 2007 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#172247) #

I took a look at the Jays' pitching statistics this morning, and the reason Frasor isn't pitching more seems obvious to me: there are a lot of relievers who are better than him. Here's their ERA numbers:

Janssen 2.25
Downs 2.31
Accardo 2.55
League 3.38 (small sample size - but he was the #2 guy last year)
Tallet 3.48
Frasor 4.23

Even Wolfe is doing better than Jason right now: he's at 2.20, though he's only pitched in unimportant games.

I like Frasor better than Tallet, but Tallet has roughly the same strikeout and walk totals, has given up no home runs, and is left-handed.

Frasor could help a bunch of teams - including, possibly, the Jays in a pinch - but he's in the back of the bullpen on merit. The Jays have a very good bullpen right now.

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