Aaron Hill started in 8 different spots.

I'll say Matt Stairs.

AJ Burnett will throw a simulated game on Friday.

Magpie, here in Workville, all we have is Gameday.  It is suggesting that the umpire has a very, very broad definition of the outside black to left-handed hitters today, getaway day.  We all know that this kind of thing never happens in reality, and that it must be a Gameday glitch, but just in case, is there any truth to the Gameday account of the broad strike zone this afternoon?

Well, actually, on both sides of the plate, now that he just rung up Rios on a pitch that Gameday says was quite a bit outside...

Forget it, Jake. It's Getaway Day.

Both pitchers have thrown twice as many strikes as balls.

Trick question?  This says Stairs has hit in all 9 spots (although probably includes pinch hitting).

As opposed to all the criticism that John Gibbons usually takes for his use of the bullpen, I would like to commend him thus far on the use of Brandon League.  He has slowly worked him in to low leverage situations to stretch his arm and get comfortable again at the big league level, which is exatly what should have been done.

According to Gameday, Rincon threw an eephus to Wells at 36 mph.  Is that right?

Nice inning.

I think these two box score lines sum up how that inning went for Twins pitchers:

Reyes pitched to 2 batters in the 6th.
Rincon pitched to 4 batters in the 6th.

Troy Glaus: Leadoff hitter.

I love it.

After this, the Jays have the White Sox, Tampa Bay, and Texas.  If they are to make a run, now is as good a time as any.  Who knows, they may be in the middle of their run right now.

I'll also give credit to Gibbons for his pinch-hit of Glaus for Clark, despite having a 5-1 lead at the time. He went for the kill, and it paid off. Well played, sir, well played.

I was just thinking this as well.  It's pretty rare to see (Gibbons going for the kill like that).

I was not particularly impressed with Litsch coming out for the 7th with a 12 run lead, an off-day tomorrow (to rest up the pen), and such a long bottom of the sixth (that was a loooong break for a young pitcher who'd just thrown 6 great innings).  But then Litsch gets through it on 15 pitches.

That bum Litsch, giving up a run. :)

So, the current rotation is...
Name - ERA
Marcum 3.87
Litsch 4.01 (after today's game)
Halladay 4.15
McGowan 4.45
Towers 4.97

I guess Halladay is an OK #3

And yet, if you listen to Bob McCown, you will discover that what they Jays need to do is improve their pitching...

...and I hear that the ghosts of Christy Mathewson and Walter Johnson are available and are not familiar with the concept of salary inflation.

Yet another reason to ignore talk radio (although I do enjoy it quite often).

The Jays rotation this year has used 10 guys. 5 have an ERA+ of 100 or better (the current top 4 plus AJ), followed by Towers at 92, Chacin 82, Ohka 79, Taubenheim 51, and Zambrano 42.

The 7 guys in the pen right now are all having season ERA+ over 100. Guys used that are under are BJ Ryan (we forgive him I suspect), DeJong, and that is it (not counting starters listed above). Gronkiewicz was at 204, Vermilyea didn't give up a run.

Outside of the Ohka/Zambrano experiment and injuries to BJ and Chacin the staff has been extremely solid.

The teams ERA+ is 108 overall. 5th in ERA in the AL, 3rd in ERA+ behind Oakland and Boston (4 others ahead in the NL for ERA+).

Hitting on the other hand is a bit offensive. 10th in R/G, barely ahead of KC and behind Tampa Bay. The only teams lower in OBP are Texas, KC, and Chicago. 3rd in HR which is good, but we need guys to get their butts on base for those HR's! Now, 4 games of 6+ runs is a great sign but that was preceded by 5 games of 3 or fewer runs.

Having just 6 guys on the roster with a 100+ OPS+ (outside of Halladay at 164 who is #1 on the roster) is probably the big problem. Rios, Glaus, Stairs, Thomas, Hill, and Overbay (in that order) are the 100+ guys. Regulars sub-80 include Zaun, Clayton, Johnson/Lind (both at 70). McDonald is having a 'good' year at 59 (56 lifetime). Vernon is at 95. The peak for the rest of the bench is Thigpen at 61. Heck, there is even a negative OPS+ there in Ryan Roberts (-9). Amazingly enough the team still has a 96 OPS+ overall.

So, if JP is serious about fixing this team then get a catcher who can hit (dumping Phillips and his 44 OPS+ was a good start), a SS who can hit (70/59 is not a good combo), and hope Johnson comes back to life (LF at 70? Unacceptable).

This team is close and the holes are so big as to be impossible to miss and (in theory) should be easy to improve on. Put a chunk of effort into building a bench ala the effort in building a rotation/bullpen and we'd be A-OK I suspect.

I have more confidence in an improved Lind coming back next year as the Jays' starting LF than Johnson.  I don't think Johnson will hit close to .319/.390/.479 as a regular starting LF again. 

It would bring a smile to my face to see the Jays sign Posada and A-Rod this off season.  A pipe dream, but you might as well plug the holes with the best you've got.  At least neither of those two players have significant splits.

Anyways, pretty much everyone saw the problems coming with this lineup.  Far, far too Right handed heavy, which is going to boost that run differential (and give us that negative pythag record). 

Hi everyone,

I know this is slightly off-topic, but I wanted to share a fun story from last Friday's game.

I was sitting in Section 113D for last Friday's game against the Mariners and gave Jose Guillen the tough love all night long. For 8 whole innings I let him have it using the cleanest taunts I could think of (as there was a 4 year old right in front of me). Finally, he decided to walk over to me between innings and came right up to me. We shook hands exchanged a few laughs and he went on his way. He also threw a ball over my way which was much appreciated.

So, does anyone else have some fun heckling stories? (I personally love the one about V-Dub from this spring) Also; what are your best lines?

Mine:

"Hey! Jose Guillen! Would you like to exchange gloves!? Your glove seems to be malfunctioning!"

"Hey! Jose Guillen! Did you know that many major leaguers have learned how to hit a curveball? What's your excuse?!"

I have some pictures of the encounter with Jose Guillen too.. Check them out.

http://www.kenkosowan.fotopic.net/c1333148.html

I wonder if JP is starting to have thoughts about adding a player or two before the deadline. A super-utility player would be useful--someone who could play several IF positions and maybe the OF (or even catch) in a pinch. In other words, an experienced upgrade from Howie Clark. Even someone with a strong platoon split could be useful. I'm not sure if this kind of player is available, but acquiring one could fill several needs at once:
- an extra pinch-hitter
- a sub for Glaus, Hill, and/or McDonald
- a more versatile bench
- depth in case of injury (Glaus especially worries me)

Thigpen might eventually be this kind of player, but at the moment he lacks experience at several positions (and at the big-league level).

The Jays have to play better on the road if they are going to do anything in the WC race. They are 10 games below .500 on the road. Also, not peeing themselves when they see a Yankees logo would be helpful.

 

They're 4-4 against the Yankees this year! Have we gotten to the point where Yankee wins count double, because of their Mystique and Aura?

I'm looking forward to the road trip, particularly the Chicago series. The Jays have drawn Garland, Buehrle and Vazquez, so it isn't as though it'll be a picnic. Nevertheless, I'm confident that this is a stretch that they can and will make hay in-maybe meaningful September baseball's coming back...

Good to see another nice game today by Litsch, who is not looking out of place at all in the rotation right now.  He has now made 8 starts this season, 4 each during his emergency callup in May and during this impressive second stretch in July.  It is a nice basis for comparison, and he has 3 quality starts this month compared with only one (his excellent debut) in May.  The differences are quite striking, looking at the splits.

Litsch (May) 6.62 ERA, 17.2 IP, 23 H, 7 BB, 3(!) K
Litsch (July) 2.16 ERA, 25.0 IP, 26 H, 9 BB, 13 K

Assuming that he maintains at least a semblance of the recent performance in the coming months, it would seem like he should stay put with the big club.  The big question when both Chacin and Burnett get healthy is whether they'll be able to crack the current starting five!  Burnett undoubtedly will return to the rotation behind Doc, McGowan, and Marcum, but one of Towers or Litsch should be able to keep Chacin in the pen (or Syracuse where he probably belongs).  Quite a difference from the start of the year when the worry was who was going to fill out the rotation.

They're 4-4 against the Yankees this year! Have we gotten to the point where Yankee wins count double, because of their Mystique and Aura?

You're right, I guess it is quite common to balk in runs.

Sure, Accardo screwed up. He got back on the horse two days later closing out the Yankees without a problem, and has an ERA of 1.93 against them this year. Weird things happen over course of a season, and if it had happened against Seattle we'd have forgotten about it already. The Yanks have won some tight ones against Toronto this year, but it's nothing uncanny or anything.

Is Chacin out of options, or can he remain in Syracuse past his 30-day rehab assignment.?

I guess playing .500 ball counts as "peeing yourselves" in some people's minds. lol

Of course, it's always good to be able to redirect when you're called on it. ;)

I think part of the overall problem with the team/organization/etc. is that people are actually okay with 500 ball.  500 ball is really nothing special.

Great story Ken...glad to hear Jose was a good sport about it.

MGL has an interesting study in today's "The Book" blog on the performance of low-HR and high-HR pitchers in low-HR and high-HR parks.  High HR pitchers in high HR parks do not show an unexpected increase in their HR rates but do show an unexpected deterioration in their other pitching performance.  MGL suggests that this might be due to alteration of pitching pattern to avoid the home run in the unfavourable environment.  There is a large error range in the study, but with this caveat, it is interesting and has implications for the career of Josh Towers, for instance.  The study also put me in mind of John Tudor's career.

I think part of the overall problem with the team/organization/etc. is that people are actually okay with 500 ball

I don't think that's the case at all.  Nothing I've heard has suggested that anyone on the team is happy to just be at .500.  Most of the comments I've heard from management and players in recent weeks have emphasized how disappointed they are that they haven't been better.  They seem to think the team is better than their record would indicate, and I would tend to agree with them.

"Hey! Jose Guillen! Would you like to exchange gloves!? Your glove seems to be malfunctioning!"

"Hey! Jose Guillen! Did you know that many major leaguers have learned how to hit a curveball? What's your excuse?!"

are you 11?

Lighten up there Greg...heckling itself is awfully juvenile...but it's part of the fun of the game.

Heck with permission I'd like to borrow those lines, they're pretty good!

Greg, you've never heckled a player?

It's been a part of baseball as long as I've known, and I've been an avid Jays fan since the mid 1980s. As long as it remains clean and is in good sport, there's nothing improper about a good heckle.

And yes, Jasona; you can steal some of the lines. :)

are you 11?

Ken's chants at least have some sort of intelligent element to them. As opposed to "Hey 22, you suck" or "Kubel likes men". Pat Neshek was impressed with Toronto's heckling, which can't be a bad thing.

And you know what, given the fact there are kids around I'm glad Ken had the decency to keep the comments lighthearted.

And no doubt that curveball comment would be very effective if Jose comes to the outfield after an at bat where he looked really silly on a curveball or two!

 Anyone else wish the Jays didn't have an offday yestarday? I get nervous when the Jays get hot then have to take a day off. Let's hope that momentum is still with them.

 

 

 

Well Paul E-O... it had Jose Guillen laughing. And the kids were kept with unsoiled (by me that is) ears.

What clean heckles do you have in your arsenal?

Don't look now, but the Jays are 7 back of Cleveland (and 3 back of the Yankees) in the loss column. The Jays aren't exactly in the race yet, but they're close.

You really need to pick up the Tampa Bay Heckler's book.  You'd learn a thing or two...

MondesiRules,

Interestingly enough, he also got to Jose Guillen! :) All I got was a ball, not a signed bat!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Szasz

Toronto had a great day yesterday, with Seattle, New York, Detroit, and Cleveland all losing. A few more days like that, and I might start thinking they have a shot again. Damn you outside chance! You always suck me in.

With Toronto only 6 games back of the best record in the NL (Mets on pace for 91-92 wins), when do we get to start the complaining/wishcasting of "if only we were in the other league"?  All four AL playoff teams have a better record than anyone in the NL this year, last year 6 of the best 7 records were in the AL.  I figure JP will bring it up soon, along the lines of "the AL is a tough league, you need to win 90 games just to have a chance".

jays don't have a chance of doing anything at this point fellas, don't get all sweaty and freaky

Is that a guarantee like the one where Brandon League was not going to pitch for the Jays this season?

Sure they have a chance. The standings are very clear on the matter, unless that rumour about MLB ending the season on July 31 is true...

I don't think I'd bet much money on them making the playoffs. But many stranger and unliklier things have happened.

Further to that, their next nine games are against Chicago, Tampa, and Texas. That is Serious Winning Streak territory, my friends.

Then again, this team is frustrating enough to go 2-7 over that stretch.

I don't think I'd bet much money on them making the playoffs.

Clay Davenport's model puts those chances at about 7%.

If the club does not sell at the deadline, I think that their chances are somewhat better than 7%.  I agree that 92 wins will probably give a club a better than even chance of  earning the wild card berth, and I think that the Jays' chances of going at least 41-20 in the remaining 61 games are better than 1 in 7 in light of their opposition and the improved state of the club, both from a pitching perspective and in health, from the first 100 games.  Their chances might be 1 in 4 or 1 in 5.  It is difficult to measure these things objectively.

7% means their chances are closer to 1 in 14, not 1 in 7.

MG refers to 1 in 7 because 92 wins gives a 1 in 2 chance of the playoffs in his view.

ayjackson,  That may be. But that doesn't make MG's math any less wrong. 1 in 7 is roughly a 14% probability; 1 in 14 is roughly a 7% probability.

Thank you Mike. At least someone in here can grasp this difficult concept of 4th grade mathematics.

Geez, guys.  Let's say that the Jays have a 1 in 5 chance of getting to 92 wins, and that 92 wins will get you the Wild Card berth one-half of the time.  Under that assumption, the club has 20% * 50% = 10% chance of a Wild Card berth.  That's a little better than the 7% Davenport's model projects.

Well, I understood you MG, even though I don't remember grade four math.

Now Mike, you know that's gotta be at least grade 5 math though school is such a distant memory that I don't remember much math either.