1. Lou Piniella is so crazy it just might work.
2. I hear Warren Sawkiw is coming back to be the colour man for TSN broadcasts.
3. I would love to see Barry Bonds traded. Particularly fun would be the Padres, Dodgers or Brewers as destinations in deals for Bradley, Kent or Corey Koskie.
   

Rios for Saltamacchia?!? Are you serious?!? That's almost as ridiculous as the Rios for Lieber rumors that were floating around in spring training. Almost. 

Forget about the fact that one of the Jays top prospects is a catcher in Robinzon Diaz. Forget about the fact that the Jays have drafted a catcher in the 2nd, 6th, 6th, and 1st rounds of the last four drafts, one of whom is major league ready (Thigpen). Alex Rios is a young, five-tool outfielder who has been invited to the last two All-Star games (though I admit this doesn't mean much) and is hitting .298/.355/.537 with an OPS+ of 129. He is leading the Jays in pretty much every meaningful hitting statistic. And you are suggesting that the Jays dump their best player who is still arbitration-eligible for a good chunk of time for a catching prospect?!?

Now I think I have a better understanding of why you thought letting Josh Towers pitch to Andy Phillips in last night's game so that he could be eligible for the win was the right move.

I hear Warren Sawkiw is coming back to be the colour man for TSN broadcasts.

Perfect.  Warren and Rod Black deserve each other.  My two least favorite sportscasters in the world, and I hope they're very happy together.  I'll get MLB.TV and watch Pirates games instead when TSN is on.

You can't trade established players (which Rios has proved now this year) for a maybe like Salt without some more insurance.

An offer of Saltalamacchia and Oscar Villarreal would make me think, though.

An offer of Saltalamacchia and Oscar Villarreal would make me think, though.

Don't strain yourself. Trading a catching prospect that you also don't really need and a reliever that you have even less of a need for isn't much of an offer for a player who is your best hitter by any measure of the term, is a strong defensive outfielder and is only 26!

There are a few problems with the Rios-Saltalamacchia deal:

• Rios is close to being expensive. Saltalamacchia is very cheap for another 3-4 years.
• The Braves may not need another catcher with McCann around, but they do need a first baseman, which is where Salt has been playing. If he's as good as some people think, he can hit well enough to play there.
• Trading Rios makes Johnson the right fielder for the immediate future. And if the guy who just had back surgery happens to spend some time on the DL, you're going to end up with someone like Matt Stairs or Adam Lind playing right field. That is not appealing.

Does anyone think that Thigpen will outperform Saltalamacchia?  If not, then you consider trading for Saltamacchia. 

Of course not. And I don't think that anyone is suggesting that Thigpen will outperform Saltamacchia. Anyone that would is deluding themselves.

But that's not the point. I am fully on board with the concept of trading for one of the best catching prospects in the game.  But the price that some on this board are suggesting - the team's best hitter (hands down) and one of its best defenders for a very good catching prospect and (perhaps, if the citizens of Toronto are fortunate) a reliever for the said catcher is a stretch.  While the Jays would have Saltamacchia for the next five years, they'd lose Rios. So the net gain isn't obvious to me.

The Jays need a shortstop too. But that doesn't mean that I would recommend JP go out and trade Roy Halladay for Erick Aybar or Troy Tulowitzky.

As Happy Gilmore once eloquently put it: "the price is wrong, bitch!"

Craig,

Now you've lost me. You're making the linchpin of the hypothetical trade a reliever who has started five games in the major leagues because you'd turn him into a starter?!? That seems a bit silly to me - the Braves aren't exactly rich in starting pitching at the back end of their rotation and logic would suggest that they would have turned Villareal into a starter if they felt that he had the skills. His stats as a reliever are far more impressive than his stats as a starter (mainly, minor league stats but still).

Like I said before, a smart GM doesn't sell off his top offensive asset (defined loosely as the player's contribution to the team relative to the amount of money that he's making) for a catching prospect and a potential back-of-the-rotation starter. That's just wrong.

I guess we can agree to disagree - I'm just glad you ain't the GM! 

While I'd really hate to trade Rios, I'd have to listen if Saltamachia and Escobar were on the table. That said, I'd rather something like this that lets us keep our all-star RF for a few more years and restocks the left side of the Toronto infield.

For arguments sake,

Toronto trades 3b Troy Glaus, OF Matt Stairs and RHP Jason Frasor - receives SS Yunel Escobar, 3b/SS Brandon Wood and C Jarod Saltamaccia
Atlanta trades SS Yunel Escobar and C Jarod Saltamacchia - receives SP Ervin Santana, Matt Stairs and RHP Jason Frasor
Anaheim trades SP Ervin Santana and 3b/SS (AAA) Brandon Wood - receives 3b Troy Glaus

Atlanta shores up its rotation with a SP who has two years left under control, picks up a decent arm in the pen, and a bat for the playoff push to play 1b/LF.
Anaheim fills the power gap in its lineup and loses Santana who has been hit or miss this year.
Toronto restructures as opposed to rebuilding by injecting to 20-somethings into its lineup.

I'm certainly overvaluing both Santana and Glaus but ... how would you tweak it?

Manhattan Mike, you're right. When Torre went to the pen, that was Gibbons cue to do likewise. Instead, he probably went for some chewing tobacco, and that's always the wrong decision. Other than trade Rios for ARod, which would solve the black hole at cleanup and short in one easy step, anything else is a giveaway. Dangerous fifth columnists have been planting Rios poison pills on this site for years. Be gone, I say. May the clear light of Reason sweep away the shadows.

What a joy it is to listen to Ash and Jerry on the internet.

No one said that Rios is untradeable. From my end, I restricted my comments to say that trading a catching prospect with suspect defensive skills for a young, two-time all-star who has given every indication that he will continue playing at his current level is a bad trade and not one that the Jays should do, even if the Braves throw in a long reliever (which really doesn't do much for me).

Rios for a young pitching star? Yeah, that's more like it.

I think we could sell anyone except Rios,Hill,Wells,Halladay..

If I was JP, I'll do this trades:

1. Jays get: Matt Brown+Joe Saunders , Angels get: Thomas+Chacin

By this move we can get power 3B prospect, and Angels will benefit by Thomas's power.  Chacin and Saunders gets another chance.

2. Jays get: Callix Crabbe, Brewers get: Frasor+JF Griffin?

Crabbe is switch-hitting 2B prospect with good eye,good speed,solid defense- like David Eckstein.

I don't know if he can full-time SS but I want to try him as SS.

3. Jays get: Salty, Braves get: Johnson+something

I don't know how Braves will demand but if Johnson shows great perfomance before trade deadline, Johnson will be attractive trade bait.

or Burnett with some money support could be an option.

hope Jays bring some young talents!

With Minnesota apparently in need of a power bat, and Cleveland in need of bullpen help, the Jays could swing deals with both these teams, since they are unlikely to deal with each other.

Thomas to the Twins for either pitching or SS help - I imagine the Jays would have to eat some salary.

? to ther Indians for Ryan Garko. Downs won't be enough, and I suspect any mention of Janssen would be met with stern disapproval.

Now you've lost me. You're making the linchpin of the hypothetical trade a reliever who has started five games in the major leagues because you'd turn him into a starter?!? That seems a bit silly to me - the Braves aren't exactly rich in starting pitching at the back end of their rotation and logic would suggest that they would have turned Villareal into a starter if they felt that he had the skills. His stats as a reliever are far more impressive than his stats as a starter (mainly, minor league stats but still).

Mike, it honestly seems to me like you're evaluating Villarreal - a man who's been in the majors for the last five seasons (and on TV every other day at least) - while never having seen him pitch. Forgive me if I'm a little less than sanguine in accepting your judgments on ballplayers.  Villarreal throws good heat and has two very good offspeed pitches, so in fact he has more of a starter's repetoire than a reliever's.  He's a bulldog competitor.  He comes out of a real solid organization in Atlanta, and his arm is fairly young and doesn't have a lot of miles on it.  Plus, he's used to throwing in long relief, making him a natural candidte for conversion.

Mike Green: Asdrubal Cabrera is a great target for the Jays.

Solid glove at SS, strong offensive numbers across the board with more walks than K's as a relatively young hitter in AA, and best of all he doesn't yet carry the "name" cache of other top prospects making him a relative value on the market.

By next off-season his name will be ubiquitious as one of the  top 3 SS prospects in baseball.

Also, I would trade a package centered around glaus for brandon wood (maybe include adam lind).

Until Adam Lind comes back to the majors and hits, or at least starts producing in a big way in AAA, his trade value is near zero.  Knowing his talent and the team's lack of youth in the field, he's one of the last Jays I'd want to try to trade.

Following Craig's comment about Adam Lind's zero trade value, add Frank Thomas to that list.  While we're at it, add any position player not named Alex Rios, Troy Glaus, or Aaron Hill.  Overbay's a nice guy, but there are young guys like Conor Jackson who could provide similar value for less money and more upside.  Reed Johnson probably had his career year already, and most GMs like to see at least a couple of plus years before assigning plus value to a player (unless the player is Neifi Perez, apparently).  Stairs might have value in the sense that a rich contender might give up a long-shot prospect for him, but you wouldn't get a real player for him, and I think the Jays are better off with him anyway.

If the Jays have anything to trade, it's pitching, and even guys like Janssen and Frasor aren't worth as much as we'd like to think.  That being said, I see that the Brewers are benching Richie Weeks - he strikes out a lot and obviously he's having a tough season, but he's only 24, and Hill could move over to shortstop.  Problem is, I don't think the Jays have anyone the Brewers would want.

"Problem is, I don't think the Jays have anyone the Brewers would want."

How about Dave Bush, Gabe Gross and Zack Jackson....... Oh wait, we already did that.

Craig,

It honestly seems to me like you're evaluating my assessment on Villarreal while having no knowledge as to how much Braves baseball I watch.

But that's not the point. You don't trade your star outfielder for a catching prospect that's suspect defensively and is being talked about as someone more suited for the corner infield than the battery and a long reliever who missed most of 2004 and 2005 with arm troubles. Further, like you said, this reliever comes out of a real solid organization in Atlanta. And though this solid Atlanta organization has been having woes at the back end of the rotation, it hasn't occurred to them to move Villarreal to these slots. But you know this, of course, since you watch so much Braves baseball. Or perhaps it is the case that though the Braves are "on TV ever other day at least", the day in which they are not on features this miserable back-end because otherwise you'd know this.

So forgive me if I'm a little less than sanguine in accepting your judgement on how JP should be GM'ing when your trade ideas result in the Jays taking a major step back when they've built a team that is a piece or two away from contending next season because they've traded away one of their best offensive weapons.

Hey Manhatten_Mike,

Everytime someone disagrees with you, you respond with an aggressive, snide remark. I don't enjoy reading your posts because of the underlying tone that consistently makes its way into your posts. Which is too bad, because you do make some good points.

Check out this word: Tact.

What I think would help this team more then trading (besides a true SS... *sigh*), would be firing Gibbons. They need to light a spark under this teams butt, and Gibbons is just too laid back to do it. Give him till the trade deadline.

Zeppelinkm,

I choose my words very carefully, as I hope we all should. And if you don't enjoy reading my posts because they are snide, feel free to skip over them.

All I did was rephrase a snide and, quite frankly, obnoxious comment by Craig to me to point out to him how silly his idea of trade Rios for a catching prospect that can't catch very well and a middle reliever. If he hadn't said what he said in the first place, I wouldn't have had anything to write back to him. Further, I specifically held back from commenting on as vacuous a statement as trading for Villarreal because he's "a bulldog competitor" (in which case Gregg Zaun's value on the trade market should be equivalent to that of an All-Star's!) because I wanted my response to hone on specifically on the more obnoxious part of Craig's remark.

But already this conversation is heading down a pathI'd prefer not to take it. So enough.

• why are Jays last in the league in base stealing when they have Rios, Wells and now Johnston who at least have some speed on the base paths
  
• why has the top RBI hitter been batting first or second virtually all year
• why is Frank Thomas any where near the 4th or 5th spot given his lack of clutch hitting
• why are Aaron Hill's at bats being constantly limited by batting him 6th or 7th
• why are the regular cast virtually never benched as a sign to cut the mediocre play

I don't understand why bauxites continue to fixate on Gibbons pitching moves when it's offence that is killing us.

How the offense performs is largely out of Gibbons' hands (except, of course, for the decisions on who starts and who sits). Pitching manoeuvres, if not the actual results, are entirely in his hands and thus lend themselves to scrutiny.

If Wells goes 0 for 4, we can gripe, but not suggest what Gibbons could have done differently. If Towers is left in too long, we can gripe and suggest that maybe he should have been pulled instead of getting to hang around for the potential W.

I'd half way on this one concerning Whitt.

On the basis that this team is virtually fully healthy given replacement performance has been more than adequate, ie Accardo season performance and Litsch's last effort covering for Burnett. And given the fact that this team tanked anyway, I'd have to say management does have to shoulder the burden here.

My hope is that Godfrey buzzes his secretary and asks her to book lunch for him and Ricciardi on Friday. And that lunch goes something like this.

Godfrey tells JP that the old man and the board are all over him. They want blood. JP relies that he's about to tie a can around Phillips neck and would that be enough. Godfrey says, no not this time JP and we don't have Hillenbrand to kick around anymore either. Its going to have to be the Duke.

Now JP's doesn't much like it because he's pretty fond of Gibby. But when told the gods demand a higher sacrifice and if its not Gibbons then it will be the two of them when the season is complete. Which incidently is over now.

So Ricciardi meets Gibby for breakfast on Saturday and explains how its going to be. He can hang around and manage till they come up an honorable way to leave. Roll the Hargrove tapes. He can take another job in the organiztion, Special Assistant to the manager or something till the end of the season.

The team then announces loyal soldier and institutional man Ernie Whitt interim manager and they immediately let the baseball fraternity know they are looking for a new manager.

This way Ernie gets a pretty major opportunity for a career boost. Perhaps the guys love playing for him and Alex Rios even makes a few outstanding catches. Sorry to pick on you Lexie. And if its all roses then Ernie can interview for the job.

This would allow for other tied up and talented managers and coaches to arrange their present situations, thus providing for a higher calibar of applicants. Hell they could even talk to Cito to see if he has the heart for it anymore.

This senario might be enough to preserve JP's own job, which has to be pretty uncomfortable and perhaps precarious. This move would probably be better for gate revenue than a continued spiral with Gibbons and company. It would certainly buy time in the media. And it would get Godfrey's own neck out of the sling which might well be tighter than the one being measured for Ricciardi's ass.

Yeah, you're probably right King Rat.

I mostly wrote that up to amuse myself, its really more like a wish list than a bold prediction obviously.

I like the idea of batting Rios 3rd, but I still think you need speed at the top of the order.  Glaus and Thomas would clog the basepaths in front of Rios.  My ideal lineup would be Hill, Wells, Rios, Overbay (break up the righties), Glaus, Thomas, Lind (eventually), Zaun/Thigpen, Olmedo/MacDonald.  I might flip Overbay and Rios, I'm undecided there.  Until Lind turns it around in AAA I'd lead off with Johnson and move Hill back, but I wouldn't expect much more from Johnson than his career .288 AVG, .348 OBP, .771 OPS.  I don't see him repeating last year's numbers.  For the record, I said that before his back injury and I have a case of beer riding on my bet that he'd finish the year with an OBP under .360.  Having Overbay and Lind in the lineup along with switch hitting Zaun and Olmedo would help against righties.

As for trades, I think that someone would bite on Stairs and/or Frasor but the return wouldn't be that great.  Clayton and Towers, if there were even an suitors, would be nothing more than salary dumps.  Johnson hasn't really hit since returning so even he would be hard to move right now.  Burnett is on the DL (I don't want to see him moved anyway), and until Thomas belts 39 homeruns again I don't think any teams would pick up his contract.  Glaus really does seem like the only player that would net a good return.  I'd do it for LaRoche or Wood because I like thinking long term (1 year of Glaus vs. 6 years of LaRoche, for example), but I think it might be a very boring trade deadline for Jays fans.

Scottt, I don't think you are fully accounting for the fact that the NL reliever you are talking about is a bulldog competitor. That should help him become a critical part of an AL team's starting rotation.

Mike, there's really no need for this kind of attitude here.

Did anyone notice this from the ESPN write up of today's game:
<i>Things You Notice Dept.: When catcher Zaun was left on deck to end the top of the second, McGowan waited a full minute on the mound before anyone came out to catch his warmups. When backup catcher Wil Nieves made the last out in the bottom half, first-string catcher Jorge Posada was ready right away to warm up Wang</i>

Also, I wouldn't be surprised to see JP make an offer for Jack Wilson.  Don't think I'd be happy, but I wouldn't be surprised.

Here's a lineup for the good ship SS Blue Jays: deck chair leading off, deck chair batting second, deck chair in the third slot, deck chair hitting cleanup.....

I humbly suggest that the order in which the Jays batters come to the plate is not the problem here. The fundamental issue is that in the biggest eight games of their season, with the starters hanging tough and the relievers doing their best, in the loud, hostile territory of their two biggest rivals, the lineup collectively and convulsively froze up when it mattered.

That is not a problem with talent or batting order -- that is a problem with mentality: focus on the job at hand and confidence in both yourself and your teammates. Responsibility for creating an environment where your players are prepared , focused and confident is the manager's job, and I submit that in this respect more than any other, John Gibbons has failed this year.

You don't blame management because ... we've had to give significant playing time to Jason Phillips.

You can't blame management for Zaun getting hurt, but you can certainly blame them for continuing to play Jason Phillips. The guy's hitting 208/269/278. He makes me wish Royce Clayton at the plate. And he offers fairly little in the way of defence.

Fasano might not hit much better, but at least he'd bring the defence. And there's Curtis Thigpen, who's apparently catcher this week but earlier was a former catcher, future second baseman, and (for god knows why) backup first baseman. Those two guys might not have been all-stars, but there's a decent chance they could have been better than Jason Phillips.

If you're not even going to try and improve on Jason Phillips, you deserve plenty of blame. He's shown he's barely even capable of being a backup catcher, let alone a starting one.

An article about the Trenton Pitchers:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/09/sports/baseball/09pitchers.html?ex=1185076800&en=98696a07f01aab50&ei=5070

Let's see your math.

If you are genuinely interested in the math, check out Pete Palmer's The Hidden Game of Baseball or Tom Tango's The Book. Looking at empirical data, the run probabilities of the 24 base-out combinations are examined and the costs/benefits of attempting to move from one of the 24 base-out combinations to another are measured.

There's also, of course, Bill James, Earnshaw Cook, the BP crowd... all will have tackled this from a probabilistic perspective. There's no shortage of published math on the subject.

What's the last team who won their division with a .220 hitter in the third slot? I rest my case.

I don't believe that The Book would ensorse having a .220 hitter in your lineup, let alone the third spot in the order. And that you've cited three teams that elect not to construct their lineup absolutely optimally proves nothing.