Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

The Jays are 1 game under .500 at the break. What do you expect to see in the 2nd half?

The Globe website has a new layout now that looks a little better. And it has a new Jeff Blair picture. He looks to have aged 20 years from the picture that used to be up (which I seem to remember him mentioning that that was an old picture).

Posted by Pistol on Wednesday, July 11 2007 @ 09:06 AM EDT.

Halftime Break | 49 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Ryan Day - Wednesday, July 11 2007 @ 09:38 AM EDT (#171421) #

Things that can get better: We can't possibly have as many injuries. I don't think Overbay and Johnson will be right back to their old selves right away, but they'll be better than their replacements. Vernon Wells was getting hot before the break; we all know he's capable of playing like an All-Star for at least a couple of months at a time, so now would be a good time. Halladay can put together a similar streak. Aaron Hill might recover his April form, or at least get his OBP over .330 again.

Things that can get worse: Matt Stairs is bound to cool off. The bullpen might regress a bit, but hopefully not too much; the return of League might help out there.

Things that will stay the same: Glaus and Thomas are pretty consistent. Clayton and Phillips equally so; I'd rather see younger players take over, but I wouldn't expect a huge improvement in any event.

Who the heck knows? Is Dustin McGowan for real? Can Burnett make a comeback and pitch well for the last month and a half? Will Towers throw no-hitters or batting practice? Can Jesse Litsch be adequate? Will the Jays wise up and put Janssen in the rotation?

8.5 games out of the wildcard spot. That ain't good, but it could be worse. One good weekend could jump them ahead of both the A's and the Twins, but then it'll be real work to catch the Mariners and Indians.

Squiggy - Wednesday, July 11 2007 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#171423) #

And it has a new Jeff Blair picture. He looks to have aged 20 years from the picture that used to be up

No kidding! More like 40 years, by the look of it. I hardly even recognize him. Covering the Jays must age a man quickly or something. Griffin has also shown the ravages of covering the Jays for the last decade or so.

AWeb - Wednesday, July 11 2007 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#171424) #

I honestly like the Jays chances better in the division than the Wild Card, not that I like either all that much. 10 games back of 1 team and tied with another beats 8.5 back of one, 7 of another, and a bunch more nearby.

So with that in mind, the next 8 games on the road in Boston and New York are the most important stretch. I don't expect better than 4-4, but 3 of 4 from each team gets them into a more interesting position (within 7-8 games of the lead, clear of the Yankees).

On the player side, I expect one of Accardo and Janssen to go through an ugly stretch and be replaced in their current 1-2 roles in the pen. One or both of Marcum or McGowan will get shut down be early September, after some arm soreness from the stress of major league pitching.

The offense will improve, just by players playing to their expected levels (so Wells, Thomas, Zaun, Johnson provide improvement to more than offset the seemingly inevitable slump of McDonald).

Honestly, I expect to see mostly what I've seen already : a team that hovers near .500, maintaining a "if only they could have a 8 game win streak" puncher's chance at postseason contention. How about a 40-35 second half, for another utterly unsatisfying 83 wins (somewhere, a Tampa Bay fan reads that sort of prediction and weeps) and second place.

greenfrog - Wednesday, July 11 2007 @ 10:23 AM EDT (#171426) #

I predicted 84-88 wins in the preseason poll. This still seems about right, though I'm hoping for a massive post-All Star surge.

I think JP will look to sell before the deadline with a view to 2008 contention, but I don't see a blockbuster. If he could land an Accardo-type young player (maybe a catcher, infielder or pitcher), that would be great. Tradable parts could include Downs (a free agent after 2007), Frasor, Stairs, Glaus, Towers. JP could deal Thomas, but players usually don't get dealt in the first year of a multi-year contract.

scottt - Wednesday, July 11 2007 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#171427) #

As lame as it may sounds, the pressure is on finishing second.

I don't believe in the wild card. They're more likely to catch the Red Sox than win the wild card. Boston won't play as well in the second half, although I don't think they'll have half the injuries the Jays had.

A healty Chacin would be a big help against Boston and NYY.

Wildrose - Wednesday, July 11 2007 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#171430) #

Actually Downs is not a free agent until after 2008.

jeff mcl - Wednesday, July 11 2007 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#171433) #

The quote about the division being more attainable than the WC piqued my interest. The Bosox started 36-15, building up a nice comfy cushion, and then have gone 17-19 since. Are they just going to tread water for the rest of the year? I don't want to make observations about individual weaknesses on their team because that would only serve to jinx the Jays as they head into Fenway, but the Bosox lineup doesn't appear to be the offensive jauggernaut we all thought it would be.

But ya, I predicted the Jays as an 85-win club in the preseason and that might still be realistic.

Jordan - Wednesday, July 11 2007 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#171434) #

The Jays need Lyle Overbay's bat to return to its 2006 levels when he gets back in the lineup, not his first-half-of 2007 levels. And they need Reed Johnson to regain his batting stroke despite the surgery and first-half layoff. If neither happens, this team won't sniff contention.

The team's surprising (to me) ability to ascend to and tread water at .500 is largely thanks to the unexpectedly rapid development of Dustin McGowan and Shaun Marcum, along with Jeremy Accardo performing well as closer. The Jays need these three guys to be for real, for Roy Halladay to stop having a 4.46 ERA, and better production from left field, centerfield, second base, first base, DH and catcher (I'm not even bothering with shortstop). That's a lot to ask in a very tough American League, and I continue to be among the doubters that this team will finish the year any more than respectably.

greenfrog - Wednesday, July 11 2007 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#171435) #

Wildrose: thanks for the correction. That's good news - Downs would be a good LOOGY-plus to keep around for next year. It also makes him a more valuable trade commodity.

Mick Doherty - Wednesday, July 11 2007 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#171436) #

If Boston plays .500 ball the rest of the way (38-37), then they end up at 91-71. To get to 92 wins:

Toronto would have to finish 49-26
New York would have to finish 50-27
Baltimore would have to finish 54-21
Tampa Bay would have to finish 58-17

If Wild Card leader Cleveland plays .500 ball the rest of the way (37-37), then they end up at 89-73. To get to 90 wins:

Toronto would have to finish 47-28
New York would have to finish 48-29
Baltimore would have to finish 52-23
Tampa Bay would have to finish 56-19

Barry Bonnell - Wednesday, July 11 2007 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#171437) #

Apparently Paul Godfrey said on Off The Record yesterday that Aaron Hill was going on the 15 day DL. No mention of it yet on the Jays web site though.

TA - Wednesday, July 11 2007 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#171438) #

That's good news - Downs would be a good LOOGY-plus to keep around for next year. It also makes him a more valuable trade commodity.

Though I'm somewhat doubtful that it will happen, I would love to see Ricciardi sell-high on Downs.

Forty-four appearances in the first half makes me a little uneasy.

I would rank him first in the whose-arm-is-going-to-fall-off-next sweepstakes.

tr0mbone - Wednesday, July 11 2007 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#171442) #

If Hill goes to the DL, then Adams should be called up to showcase him for a trade. Then we can package him and some pitching for a real SS. The advantage of all the DL time though could be a fresher team down the stretch. Johnson and Zaunie both tired in the second half hardcore last year and with 2 months on the shelf, they should be good for the season. League can be brought up and when he is back to form (hope) Janssen can be put in the rotation. Stairs can afford to get cold now that Johnson is back and once overbay gets back he can bench warm for a bit.

But, a rotation of:
Halladay
McGowan
Marcum
Burnett
Towers

isn't bad... swap Janssen and Towers, consider Litch, and it should be fine.

Our BP is great so adding a rejuvinated League could only make it better.

Wells should heat up and Thomas should keep hitting and walking. I think keeping Wells up top with Johnson #2 is the best bet. My ideal order is (against righties):

Wells
Johnson
Rios
Glaus
Thomas
Overbay
SS Hole
Zaun
Hill

against lefties:

Johnson
Overbay
Wells
Rios
Glaus
Thomas
Zaun
Hill
SS Hole

If Wells heats up more than Rios, we can swap them in both orders... Hill and Johnson seem to be interchangable... too bad Hill doesn't seem to perform well out of the leadoff spot.

Biggest Concerns: Marcum and McGowan getting tired, BP throwing BP, Wells doesn't heat up...

Alex Obal - Wednesday, July 11 2007 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#171443) #

Tentative pitching matchups for the Boston series have been announced. Let the anticipation begin:

Halladay v. Wakefield
Marcum v. Tavarez
McGowan v. Daisuke (!!)
Litsch v. Beckett

So, two favorable and two unfavorable, and Towers probably goes Monday in Yankee Stadium.

Why am I bringing this up? I don't like the decision to start Litsch over Towers on Sunday. I'm aware that Litsch got rocked by the Yankees last time out and he hasn't pitched since last Tuesday. But one, Towers is pretty clearly a better pitcher right now (4.91 K/BB in the majors) and should be deployed in the series where the Jays can actually gain ground. Two, I'd like Litsch to be followed by Halladay in the rotation. Litsch is the biggest threat to, in any given start, get bombed back to the stone age and put a strain on the bullpen. Halladay is the best bet to eat 7+ innings against these powerhouses and relieve any such strain. Since this is Litsch's first taste of Boston and New York, best to put as little pressure on him as possible.

Mike Green - Wednesday, July 11 2007 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#171444) #

I am not so worried about the opponent, especially out of the Rogers Centre. The Indians and the Tigers are the really terrifying clubs in the league.

The other factor is that Litsch has not thrown since July 3. Ideally, whenever he starts, he should get an inning of game work on his throw day. If luck is on the club's side, the game that day will be a blowout.

Pistol - Wednesday, July 11 2007 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#171445) #

Adams should be called up to showcase him for a trade. Then we can package him and some pitching for a real SS.

If some team has a 'real SS' and needed a 2B why wouldn't they just move that SS to 2B?

Adams could hit .300/.360/.480 the rest of the year and still not have trade value. No teams seem to want 2B, especially guys that can't stick in the majors when a team has a MI need like the Jays.

And the Jays aren't going to give up a pitcher it would take to get that shortstop (Marcum, McGowan, Janssen, Litsch) and anyone they might be willing to trade (Purcey, Romero) have been too hurt or inconsistent to get anything of value in a trade.

Ron - Wednesday, July 11 2007 @ 10:45 PM EDT (#171451) #

What do I expect in the 2nd half?

I'm keeping my eyes on a trade with the Dodgers. The Dodgers are looking to add some pop and the Jays could use some young players.
I'm keeping my eye on Chad Billingsley, Andy LaRoche, and Chin-Lung Hu. I wouldn't be surprised if Troy Glaus or Alex "poor man's Vladdy Guerrero" Rios are traded away. I wouldn't be surprised if AJ Burnett is shopped around. Despite his flaws, we all know you can never have enough pitching. He might be able to fetch a decent player or two (If you're a contending team, wouldn't you rather try to get Burnett than let's say the Steve Trachsel's or Kip Well's of the world?).

timpinder - Thursday, July 12 2007 @ 07:34 AM EDT (#171454) #

Other than Burnett and Ryan, the Jays should have their full squad to start the second half. I think that if they play .600 ball up to the deadline Riccardi will stand pat, convinced that he has a winner that was held back by injuries in 2007 but will contend in 2008. If, however, the Jays play very poorly over the next couple of weeks, I think Ron's right and I wouldn't be surprised to hear Ricciardi listen to offers for Glaus. I'd be very surprised to see Burnett go though, since he's currently on the DL and if a trade were to happen now the Jays would be dealing from a position of weakness. Besides, I still think that in today's market $12 million per year over the next three years is a fair deal for pitcher like Burnett, even if he only gives you 25-29 starts a year. Halladay/Burnett/McGowan/Marcum/Janssen or Litsch could be deadly.

My overall prediction? July will be another .500 month with a tough schedule and Johnson and Overbay trying to get their timing back, but their struggles will be off-set by improvement from Wells and Thomas. In August and September the Jays will play .600+ baseball. They won't sniff the playoffs but with a solid bullpen, solid young rotation with Burnett back as well, and a potent lineup finally healthy, they'll give us something to get excited about for 2008. Glaus won't get traded this year, but he might in the off-season for the right deal.

That's my prediction, but I also predicted that the White Sox would win the AL Central this year so take it with a grain of salt.

Barry Bonnell - Thursday, July 12 2007 @ 09:13 AM EDT (#171457) #

Hill is on the 15 day DL with a sore knee and Russ Adams has been called up to replace him.

http://www.thestar.com/Sports/article/235062

AWeb - Thursday, July 12 2007 @ 09:25 AM EDT (#171458) #

Noticed today and thought was cool : According to Hittracker, Vernon Wells hit the longest homer of the first half (adjusted for playing conditions), and also the hardest hit HR. The July 6 line drive HR into the high second deck near Windows was even more crushed than I first thought.

Jordan - Thursday, July 12 2007 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#171461) #

Apropos of nothing, but posted for amusement:

Frank Thomas, 279 AB, 2007: .251/.376/.441 (817 OPS)

Shea Hillenbrand, 296 AB, 2006: .301/.342/.480 (822 OPS)

Maldoff - Thursday, July 12 2007 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#171462) #

Also just for fun:

Frank Thomas (2006 first half) : .238/.367/.523 (.890 OPS)

Frank Thomas (2007 first half) : .251/.376/.441 (.817 OPS)

tstaddon - Thursday, July 12 2007 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#171463) #

With Overbay/Adams in and Hill out, someone else needs to be shown the door. The only logical candidates are Clayton, Clark and DeJong. Conventional thinking says that it's likely Clark heading out, with McDonald/Clayton holding down SS and back-up 3B duties for the next ten days. But, personally, I'd much rather see Clayton get DFA'd, Adams starting at 2B and Clark backing up at all three infield posts. Could the time have come?

Marc Hulet - Thursday, July 12 2007 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#171464) #

No one needs to leave to make room. Thigpen was sent down after the game on Sunday.

tstaddon - Thursday, July 12 2007 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#171465) #

Ah, yes. Damn.

Pistol - Thursday, July 12 2007 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#171466) #

It'll be interesting to see how the time gets split up in the middle infield with Hill out. I'm guessing for the most part Adams will be a late inning pinch hitting option than a regular.

Ryan Day - Thursday, July 12 2007 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#171467) #

Looking at the bright side of things...

David Ortiz has a bad knee. Schilling isn't expected back until August. Josh Beckett has been mortal for the last month or so. Mike Lowell is probably due to cool off - last year he had and OPS+ of 126 before the break and 92 after.

Of course, Manny still hasn't hit like Manny yet (he's at an age where it could be decline, but I'm not betting on it), and Lugo can't possibly hit any worse. Youkilis and Pedroia might cool off a bit, but they still look pretty good. And we can't discount the Yankees - they could see some serious improvement just by getting an average first baseman and finding Bobby Abreu's bat, and hoping Clemens still has the magic.

But maybe, just maybe, the Jays are owed a month or so of everything going right. That could make things interesting.

christaylor - Thursday, July 12 2007 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#171468) #

Is anyone else confused? I read in the Star that Hill was going to the DL yet today on the FAN JP said that the team will have the full line-up back tonight? Seems a little contradictory but from this organization who knows .

If Hill is injured and Adams gets the call, I really hope he gets to start, for if they aren't going to give him that chance they ought to have kept Thigpen up to do the fill-in role.

Mike Green - Thursday, July 12 2007 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#171469) #

Apparently the Jays and McGowan will not face Dice-K on Saturday. Rather, it will be Kason Gabbard getting the start for the Sox.

timpinder - Thursday, July 12 2007 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#171471) #

I expect to see Adams play regularly at 2B while Hill is out. I have a feeling that Ricciardi is giving serious thought to moving Hill to SS in the off-season, and Adams and Thigpen are the logical in-house options to replace Hill if that's the case. I'm also interested to see if Thigpen will take over 2B in Syracuse while Adams is up or if he will stay behind the dish. I think the next couple of weeks will provide a good indication of what Ricciadi's plans are for the middle infield going forward.

AWeb - Thursday, July 12 2007 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#171473) #

Actually, all of those things timpinder mentions would be the only sensible thing to do, given past statements about each player (Hill could move to short, Adams is still in the mix, Thigpen's future isn't behind the plate). Adams, for all his weaknesses, is likely the second best second baseman in the organization as of right now, and should be starting in lieu of Hill, at least against righties. And as some of us have been saying, if Thigpen is going to play second (or third) at some point in the future, why isn't he doing so right now?

If these things don't happen, it becomes even more clear that Ricciardi doesn't have a coherent plan for the middle infield. As if that hasn't been clear enough already.

Ron - Thursday, July 12 2007 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#171474) #

Since 2002, how many players have played SS for the Jays?

Off the top of my head I can think of Royce Clayton, John McDonald, Howie Clark, Jason Smith, Troy Glaus, Aaron Hill, Russ Adams, Luis Figueroa, Chris Gomez, Chris Woodward, Frank Menechino, Dave Berg, Mike Bordick, and Felipe Lopez. That's 14 different players.

The SS position needs to be addressed in the off-season.

Mike Green - Thursday, July 12 2007 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#171475) #

Actually, all of those things timpinder mentions would be the only sensible thing to do, given past statements about each player (Hill could move to short, Adams is still in the mix, Thigpen's future isn't behind the plate). Adams, for all his weaknesses, is likely the second best second baseman in the organization as of right now, and should be starting in lieu of Hill, at least against righties

Many Bauxites, myself included, are of the opinion that Russ Adams' future is as a utility player, and that it is a mistake to attempt to convert to Thigpen from catching without trying him at the position, especially in light of the current weakness behind Zaun. Some have suggested that Adams' high draft standing continues to play a role in his treatment by the organization- he will be 27 next month, and although he controls the strike zone, he is not really hitting well at triple A and is an average defender apparently.

Christopher - Thursday, July 12 2007 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#171476) #

I don't know why I'm looking forward to Adams getting another chance, or why I still think he can develop into a useful player at 2B. I just do. Maybe I'm hoping that Adams succeeding will have a cascade effect of moving Hill to SS and having the organization dump Clayton.

Thomas - Thursday, July 12 2007 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#171478) #

Many Bauxites, myself included, are of the opinion that Russ Adams' future is as a utility player, and that it is a mistake to attempt to convert to Thigpen from catching without trying him at the position, especially in light of the current weakness behind Zaun.

Succinct and nicely said. I support Adams coming up and starting against RHP if Hill goes on the DL and I support him coming up in September, especially if the Jays have decided to move Hill to SS (which is something else many Bauxites question). However, he'd be a weak everyday player and is unlikely to be the answer at 2B any more than McDonald is the answer at SS.

Thomas - Thursday, July 12 2007 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#171481) #

David Sampson, the owner of the Marlins, went on a rant yesterday about the soon-to-be contract extension for Ichiro. He called it "inexcusable," "a joke" and "the end of the world as we know it." As if you needed another reason to dislike the guy.

As one poster somewhere quickly pointed out, he's beginning to line up scapegoats for when the Marlins can't sign Cabrera to an extension and are forced to trade him. Because you shouldn't blame him for not signing one of the best young hitters of the past few of decades to an extension, you should blame Seattle.

greenfrog - Thursday, July 12 2007 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#171483) #

I think Adams is a good choice to fill in temporarily for Hill. He's been hitting better of late, has some big-league experience, and is entering his prime (even if he ultimately proves to be a AAAA player). I don't seem him as a long-term solution, though. I hope he doesn't sail any throws in the next two weeks.

Why isn't Dice-K starting on Saturday? Are the other weekend matchups staying the same?

I think 5-3 against Boston and NY, on the road, would be more than a good start to the second half.

Rob - Thursday, July 12 2007 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#171486) #

Off the top of my head I can think of [...] 14 different players.

Even better: if you assume a starting shortstop plays at least five innings per game, the Jays have the following full-timers since 2002:

2002: none
2003: Woodward
2004: none
2005: Adams
2006: none
2007 (so far): Clayton, just barely (3 innings above the cutoff)

Put another way, the highest number of innings the Jays have from a shortstop in six years is Russ Adams' 1100 in 2005, and he was 20th in the majors in overall SS playing time that year.

Dez - Thursday, July 12 2007 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#171487) #

According to mlb.com and yahoo, Aaron Hill is in today's starting lineup. Perhaps The Star was wrong?

Alex Obal - Thursday, July 12 2007 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#171489) #

Oh that slippery Off the Record. That's great to hear.

Pistol - Thursday, July 12 2007 @ 07:21 PM EDT (#171490) #

Globe Blog on Hill

paulf - Thursday, July 12 2007 @ 10:41 PM EDT (#171492) #

Maybe it's the bourbon, but this made me laugh.

�New rule they passed, the three-day DL" - GIbbons.

FranklyScarlet - Friday, July 13 2007 @ 07:14 AM EDT (#171500) #

From Jordan Bastian Notes:

Ricciardi said that the current plan is to keep Curtis Thigpen behind the plate and that he's in the future plans still as a catcher, not an infielder. The GM batted C Robinzon Diaz's name around in terms of a possible position switch. ... Ricciardi also said that the Jays could potentially have RHP Brandon League back in the bullpen by the end of the month.

Manhattan Mike - Friday, July 13 2007 @ 08:26 AM EDT (#171506) #

"According to mlb.com and yahoo, Aaron Hill is in today's starting lineup. Perhaps The Star was wrong?"

Zwolinsky probably got his information by speaking with Griffin. And Griffin is always wrong when it comes to the Jays.

Mike Green - Friday, July 13 2007 @ 10:01 AM EDT (#171511) #

I don't think that it is fair to blame this one on Richard Griffin. The Canadian Press report indicated that the doctor who saw him on Monday thought that he needed a week of rest, and that the team intended to put him on the DL. Godfrey had apparently made similar comments on the television.

ramone - Friday, July 13 2007 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#171513) #

FranklyScarlet: This comment from Riccardi is somewhat confusing to me, I thought that Diaz had a good throwing arm and decent defensive skills and just needed some work on calling his game. He seems to have more upside as a catcher than Thigpen, just because of Thigpen's weak arm (I see runners were two for two against him last night). I thought Riccardi had made some comments about Diaz catching in 09 (I could be wrong on this) and now he seems to want to see Thigpen in the position again.

Pistol - Friday, July 13 2007 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#171515) #

Well, a team needs two catchers and there's no reason to think that Thigpen and Diaz are both sure things.

ramone - Friday, July 13 2007 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#171517) #

I agree, neither are sure things, I was more commenting on Riccardi mentioning "a possible position switch" for Diaz.

FranklyScarlet - Saturday, July 14 2007 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#171535) #

The comment about moving Diaz suprised me, too. We've all read the speculation about Thigpen moving to the infield, but I don't recall the same thoughts regarding Diaz.

The Sports Illustrated preview for the Futures Game said Diaz was a defensive specialist who doesn't do enough with the bat. He had a big HR last night and has been hitting pretty well this season.

I think we'll just have to see how they both progress in the next months.

Halftime Break | 49 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.