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So, that was the first half. Plus a little bit more.


An interesting weekend at the local ball yard. The Celeveland Indians brought the second highest scoring lineup in the majors to town. On Friday, they cuffed Roy Halladay around for 9 hits and 5 runs in 5.1 IPT, although it wasn't quite enough to actually win the game. Then on Saturday they absolutely pummelled Shaun Marcum, who has only been one of the best pitchers in the American League over the last two months.

So naturally, yesterday they submitted meekly to the Mastery that is Josh Towers.

It was a Getaway Day of course, which was much on my mind - the strike zone has been known to expand in these situations, and hitters have been known to come up to the plate swinging as soon as they hit the on-deck circle. There may have been a little of that going on - each pitcher was able to record four outs on the first pitch of the at bat (and Hafner had a base hit on the first pitch he saw in the seventh.)

But while I was indeed looking for those Getaway Day signs, I didn't really see a lot of them. For the most part, both pitchers were simply getting ahead of the hitters. Towers threw first pitch strikes to 22 of the 27 hitters he faced - but 12 of those 22 first pitch strikes were called strikes. Byrd threw first pitch strikes to 20 of 29 hitters, and 13 of the 20 were called strikes.

Towers' primary virtue as a pitcher has always been his ability to throw strikes, of course. Meanwhile Paul Byrd this year has been the stingiest pitcher in baseball in issuing the base on balls. So it's not too surprising that neither starter walked a hitter. Neither really came all that close. Towers went to Ball 3 just twice in his eight innings - he struck out Sizemore on a full count pitch to end the sixth, and Shoppach grounded out on a full count pitch to end the eighth. Byrd went to Ball 3 just once, falling behind Thomas 3-1 in the seventh before getting him to ground out on a full count pitch.

Anyway,  I was looking through the Cleveland Game Notes, where it was brought to my attention that C.C. Sabathia, now 12-3, is trying to become Cleveland's first 20 game winner since Gaylord Perry in 1974.

And I thought, 1974? Man, that's a long time. Has any other team played that many seasons without someone winning 20 games?

Maybe not. I can tell you for sure that it's the longest current streak. Here's the last 20 game winner for everybody - everybody that's actually had one, anyway:

2005 Florida (Dontrelle Willis 22)
2005 St.Louis (Chris Carpenter 21)
2005 Houston (Roy Oswalt 20)
2005 LA Angels (Bartolo Colon 21)

2004 Boston (Curt Schilling 21)
2004 Minnesota (Johan Santana 20)

2003 Atlanta (Russ Ortiz 21)
2003 NY Yankees (Andy Pettitte 21)
2003 Toronto (Roy Halladay 22)
2003 Chicago WS (Esteban Loaiza 21)
2003 Seattle (Jamie Moyer 21)

2002 Oakland (Barry Zito 23)

2001 Arizona (Randy Johnson 24, Curt Schilling 23)
2001 Chicago Cubs (Jon Lieber 20)

1998 Texas (Rick Helling 20)

1993 San Francisco (John Burkett 22, Bill Swift 21)

1991 Pittsburgh (John Smiley 20)
1991 Detroit (Bill Gullickson 20)

1990 NY Mets (Frank Viola 20)
1990 Los Angeles (Ramon Martinez 20)

1989 Kansas City (Bret Saberhagen 23)

1988 Cincinnati (Danny Jackson 23)

1986 Milwaukee (Teddy Higuera 20)

1984 Baltimore (Mike Boddicker 20)

1982 Philadelphia (Steve Carlton 23)

1978 Montreal/Washington (Ross Grimsley 20)
1978 San Diego (Gaylord Perry 21)

1974 Cleveland (Gaylord Perry 21)

NEVER
Tampa Bay
Colorado
9 July 2007: Take a Break | 16 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Alex Obal - Monday, July 09 2007 @ 02:14 AM EDT (#171310) #
How 'bout some love for Jeremy Accardo and his gutsy strikeout of Peralta in the 9th.

Accardo misses with the splangeup, ball one, and misses way low with a fastball, ball two. Then he throws a perfect borderline fastball at the knees down the middle. Peralta shows some A+ discipline and lays off, and gets rewarded with the call. 3-0, bases loaded, 2 out in the 9th inning of a scoreless game, a Toronto crowd... talk about pressure.

So Accardo thinks about it for a second, and responds by whistling a fastball in just above the knees for looking strike one. Then he throws a faster ball right down the middle and Peralta swings out of his shoes for strike two. And then Peralta just waves at Broadway heater #3. And the bench explodes. Turning point. Get out the salami and cheese. And after those 2 awful swings it almost looks like Peralta never had a chance after all.

Much as I hesitate to romanticize baseball plays, I think this may have been a symptom of the "psychic effect" of Reed's catch that Bruce Wrigley was talking about Friday night. Maybe the knowledge that 3 outstanding outfielders have his back, and one of them made a game-saving play last time he pitched, really does help a pitcher stay cool and throw strikes in major crises. And moreover maybe that had something to do with Accardo having the confidence to never give in to anybody - Martinez, Hafner, Peralta - until the Indians absolutely forced him to by laying off pitchers' pitches.

Either way, that was the clutchest strikeout by a Jays pitcher in some time, and arguably the biggest fist-pump moment of the weekend. Towers was the star of the game and Rios was the hero, but Accardo's disappearing act can't go uncelebrated.
Mike Green - Monday, July 09 2007 @ 10:18 AM EDT (#171314) #
It is strange to see that Mike Boddicker was the last Orioles pitcher to win 20 some 23 years ago in 1984.  In the 70s, the Orioles had a 20 game winner every year, and often more than one.  The game has changed.
Ryan Day - Monday, July 09 2007 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#171315) #

At the break:

The Good: The bullpen has been awesome. Even after some recent slumps, Accardo, Janssen, Downs, and Tallet have been outstanding. Frasor has been generally outstanding, though it seems like once a month he completely forgets how to pitch for a couple days. Shaun Marcum has been excellent. Matt Stairs has turned the clock back about five years. Troy Glaus continues to pound balls whenever he's on the field. Frank Thomas has still got it. John McDonald doesn't have it and probably never did, but at least he's making the most of it. Alex Rios has been about the only consistent bat on the team. Vernon Wells looks like he's finally coming around: Fluke though it may be, he's hitting 309/387/745 out of the leadoff spot, and has 6 walks and only 8 Ks. Maybe, just maybe, Dustin McGowan has figured out what he's doing.

The Bad: Injuries, duh: Overbay, Zaun, Johnson, Halladay, Burnett; aside from Burnett, and possibly Johnson, all flukes. Adam Lind wasn't quite as advanced as we'd have hoped. Roy Halladay hasn't been Roy Halladay. The mismanagement of Curtis Thigpen. Tomo Ohka couldn't even be a stopgap solution, and John Thomson wasn't any kind of solution at all.

The Ugly: Vernon Wells when he's hit anywhere other than leadoff. Jason Phillips and Royce Clayton: okay, you hoped they might give the team something. They haven't and it's really time to move on. It was time to move on at least a month ago. The mismanagement of Victor Zambrano. Aaron Hill since May: 244/311/376; how does a guy who looks so good slump so bad?

AWeb - Monday, July 09 2007 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#171316) #
In second place, percentage points up on the Yankees looking like this at the all-star break is not something we imagined could look like this. The Jays went into the break taking 2 of 3 from the team that they are "chasing", so that was a positive. I don't think this team is good enough to make the playoffs, but they could still make a run.

Best of the first half:

Rios establishing himself as a legitimate 2nd tier guy (all-star sometimes, not at the elite level) has been comforting. It appears that last year wasn't a fluke, and we are all justified in expecting better from him.

Young pitching getting it together, from the bullpen first, then the starters. Since I started frequenting this site maybe 3-4 years ago, I've heard promises of pitching on its way to the majors, any time now. Well, finally in the first half of 2007, some of it arrived.

Worst of the first half :

Wells reverting to league average hitter, Thomas's struggles in the first two months, Lind not hitting at all. All of these things were obvious possibilities in April, but all three happening has killed the first half.

Clayton : some clutch hits in April masked terribleness. Lack of errors due to lack of range and weakening arm does the same to casual fans. Phillips falls into almost the same category this year. It's not so much what they do poorly, which gets hard to recognize among the stifling consistency of it all, it's that neither has done anything well.

Halladay : continues to worry me. He's had three of his worst starts ever in the first half, and has given up 10 hits or more 4 times already. He worries me in that I fear he might not ever be "the guy" on a consistent basis again, not that I think he's done.
HippyGilmore - Monday, July 09 2007 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#171321) #

I may be in the minority, but I'm not at all concerned about Roy Halladay and expect him to absolutely dominate in the second half. His FIP is still a very good 3.61, and his XFIP is an excellent 3.75, 8th best in the American League. He's given up a ton of hits but not a ridiculous number of home runs, and his stuff still looks (to me) as filthy as ever, although I grant he does seem to be allowing a few more line drives than usual.

I remember a Greg Maddux quote from Moneyball where he had an entire year with an elevated ERA (and BABIP) and said he noticed balls were just falling in more often, the squibbers and inbetweeners. I think our ace just had a really hit-unlucky first half, and combined with a few absolutely terrible starts that may or may not have been exacerbated by his appendicitis, his ERA is above where it should be. I have supreme confidence he'll pitch the second half with an ERA at least in the mid-3's, and if his run support continues that could mean a 20 win season. I think he'll be just fine.

Maldoff - Monday, July 09 2007 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#171327) #

The Toronto Blue Jays have given Victor Sambrano his unconditional release.

http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/news_story/?ID=213179&hubname=

Jordan - Monday, July 09 2007 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#171329) #
I think it's funny that Gaylord Perry was the last 20-game winner for two different teams -- and neither has had one in about 30 years since. Both the Padres and Indians should break that string this year.
Andrew Ward - Monday, July 09 2007 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#171343) #
I know that this type of comment from Blue Jays fans is probably starting to sound a little tired, but when you watch Roy pitch there is almost a strike zone conspiracy going on with the umpires.
I don't know how many times I have watched him throw strikes only to have them called balls and that forces him into batter's counts. If you watch the expression on his face sometimes, you know that he thinks that he is getting squeezed and even he commented on the tiny strike zone recently, which is not like him.
I still think that the umpires hate the idea of a Canadian team doing well in their national pastime.

RhyZa - Monday, July 09 2007 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#171365) #
'Tired' was being a tad generous, 'downright ridiculous' is more like it.
Frank Markotich - Tuesday, July 10 2007 @ 08:48 AM EDT (#171377) #
You're certainly entitled to express your opinion, Andrew, but you can't be hypersensitive when someone disagrees with you. And this "they don't want the Canadian team to do well" business is in fact ridiculous.
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 10 2007 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#171395) #
BP is having their free week.  So, we can access PECOTA cards like this one for A.J. Burnett. The 5 year PECOTA projection looks pretty reasonable to me.
Chuck - Tuesday, July 10 2007 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#171398) #
Yikes. Even Burnett's 90th percentile 2007 forecast didn't see him with 30 starts or 200 innings. I might have expected a wildly optimistic forecast for him to look like 32 GS, 18-6, 3.10 ERA, 210 IP, 220 K. Maybe that's more like a 98th percentile forecast... or 50th, if you're MyLegacy ;)
Frank Markotich - Tuesday, July 10 2007 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#171400) #

This is admittedly off the top of my head, but Jim Beattie? Dave Goltz? Jack Billingham? These are the guys who are supposed to be the most comparable pitchers to Burnett?

I'm going to have to look at that in more detail I guess.

 

Frank Markotich - Tuesday, July 10 2007 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#171403) #

Looking at the stats before the focus year, Beattie was sort of comparable, I guess. I remember him pitching, but I can't recall much about him, and he certainly wasn't described as a particularly hard thrower. Goltz - he was a sinkerball pitcher who was slightly above average in strikeouts and had very good control - don't see the resemblance to Burnett. Billingham wasn't much of a strikeout guy, even adjusting for context and wasn't a hard thrower either, as far as I can recall.

(checks Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers)

Beattie is described as relying on a hard slider, and threw a FB in the low 90's. Not Burnett like to me. The book says his velocity dropped to the high 80's after surgery after the 1984 season (uh-oh).

 

Mike Green - Tuesday, July 10 2007 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#171406) #
BP's percentile forecasts are quite tight.  Alex Rios' 50th percentile has him hitting 14 homers, and his 90th hitting 20.  Whether the 50th percentile adequately accounted for anthropomorphic data is a good question, but the 90th was pretty clearly low.  Chuck is quite right that Burnett's 90th involves considerably fewer innings than it ought to. Actually, the 10th percentile forecast (117 innings) is probably too high.  It was pretty clear before the season that there was a 10% chance that Burnett would miss most of the season due to injury. 
9 July 2007: Take a Break | 16 comments | Create New Account
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