If you told any Toronto fan before the season that the Jays would be a half game up on the Yankees on June 25th, well, I can think of much worse fates than that.

These Jays remind me of the Twins and Athletics of the last several years: really good pitching, good defense, and an offense that sputters a bit but can often come through when needed.  After the comeback against the Rockies on Friday night, I was grinning like an idiot all weekend.  McGowan's one-hitter was just the icing on the cake.  How can you not watch those games and feel hope swell within you?  Guys like Bob Elliott and Richard Griffin can't set aside their prejudices long enough to enjoy the team we have.  Today's Elliott column focuses mostly on the dearly departed scouts that helped select Dustin McGowan in 2000 instead of, uh, Dustin himself.  Can't waste an opportunity to stick it to J.P., right?

I'm with Mr. Till.  It's still frickin' June.  How about let's keep the hope train moving, chuckleheads?  Leave the doom and gloom crap to Steve Simmons, who is probably the only media personality in Toronto who knows less about baseball than Bob McCown.

I sometimes pop into a couple Devil Rays blogs and I'm always surprised at the lack of hope. They've got more talented young pitchers and hitters than anyone in the division, but they've been disappointed too many times to see it. Sad really. I blame it on that awful heckler at their awful stadium.

There are exceptions. If you're reading this, and you're an Orioles fan, all I can say is: I'm so sorry

Orioles fans (I'm one of those) aren't nearly as bad. We know the team stinks and the management is full of morons, but every spring there's an upwelling of hope. We grew up with great teams in orange and black so we know that winning is possible.

PS - Bedard, Loewen, Guthrie, Cabrera, Ray, Hoey, Markakis and Roberts say hi. It ain't a lot, but at least our team isn't the one trotting out Josh F. Towers anymore. Ha ha!

PPS - We've got your Canadians and we're not giving them back. 8P

But having said that, there is a third option - that of "reloading", a la Billy Beane. Taking Glaus off the table completely with an eye towards next year is also not prudent. If the right offer comes along, I would be completely in favour of moving him regardless of standings - he is an extremely valuable trading piece and some of the interested California teams have some real major-league talent to offer.

He hasn't hit so well since 1999.

Actually, the year he's having is extremely similar to his 2003 season with Pittsburgh, right down to the OPS+. But your point is pretty sound.

After a couple months of frustration, mediocrity, and outright suckitude, the team finally seems to be on a hot streak. If it just lasts a week then it probably doesn't mean anything, but what if they can stay hot for a month or so?

And, as ever, I suspect the big question mark is hanging over Dustin McGowan's head. He's a young pitcher, and he'll probably continue to mix good and bad starts... but sometimes, something just clicks; what if McGowan suddenly turns into the pitcher everyone's been hoping he can be? I don't know if it's likely, but it 's possible.

Of course, the other questions include Reed Johnson, Lyle Overbay, and the inevitable (or not?) cooling off of Matt Stairs.

But hey, how about this bit of meaningless data: As a leadoff hitter, Vernon Wells is hitting 333/400/889. Take that, Rickey Henderson!

If you can get a young player who legitimately looks like a major league regular or starter or closer for Matt Stairs in July, I think you would be crazy not to do it.

Now if the Jays go 15-4 over the next three weeks or so maybe I change my mind.  But if you're into mid-July and you're still in the neighbourhood of 5-6 games back with multiple teams ahead of you, it's just a fool's hope to hold on to these older guys who could bring you a long term piece of the puzzle.

The same with Glaus...if he can bring you a major league ready prospect or two who look like legit stars, I think you have to do it, especially if it makes it easier to keep younger and healthier guys like Rios around.  I'd rather have Rios' arbitration years bought out as well as another couple of good young players in the fold.

The same with Glaus...if he can bring you a major league ready prospect or two who look like legit stars, I think you have to do it, especially if it makes it easier to keep younger and healthier guys like Rios around.

I don't think Glaus' situation is the same as Stairs'.  Glaus is under contract for next year, Stairs isn't.  If, in a month, the Jays consider 2007 a lost cause, they must look to 2008.  Obviously if they can get a prospect for Stairs, or anything else of future value, they will.

Glaus projects to provide a lot of value to this club in 2008.  It would be necessary to find, in a trade, a player or players who would provide equal value to Glaus in 2008.  Andy Laroche probably would not.  Howie Kendrick might.  Chad Billinglsy likely would.  I'd be very careful about what I accept as consideration if dealing Troy.

   On the subject of whether to trade Matt Stairs:  I would be wary of trading him away for a prospect, even if the Jays fall out of the race for the wild card.  Are we certain that he could not help the team next season?   Among all the regulars in the current Jays lineup, Stairs is the leader in batting average and SLG, and he is third in OBP.    This is not a total fluke either -- he produced similar numbers as recently as 2003, as someone else has noted.   Yes, his numbers might decline, but it's equally possible that they might not decline.   He obviously loves playing in Canada and he seems to be rejuvenated this season.  Why should we assume that his production will collapse in the future?   Given a choice between Stairs and a prospect in 2008, some of us might prefer Stairs.  (Unless the prospect is a guaranteed future star.)

   By the way, I've been defending Stairs from his Bauxite critics since the beginning of this season.  In case anyone is wondering:  I'm not related to him, I've never met the guy, I don't have any vested interests in his career.   I just like the guy and his attitude and his performance (not in the outfield, but offensively at least) and I think he has been underrated and undervalued for too long.

   And just a footnote on my last post:   I realize, of course, that Stairs is unsigned for next year.  But I think we can be fairly confident that he would sign again with the Jays for next season, if the Jays offer him any kind of reasonable salary.  He's having a great time in Toronto and he's always made it very clear that he wants to play in Canada.

    Having said that, of course the Jays should wait until the end of the season to offer him another contract....   in case his production declines or he suffers an injury, like a heart attack while running for a fly ball in the outfield.....

A little number crunching.

In the 41 games since the horrific nine game losing streak, the Jays have been playing .610 ball. In all games outside the streak, the Jays are playing .576 ball.

Applying the former number to the remaining 87 games gets a win total of 91 wins, apply ing the latter gets you 88.

Now, here are the wild card standings, with their current record, games back, and projected finial record if they maintain their pace:

Cleveland .... 44-31.....X......95-67

Seattle.......40-33.....3......89-73

Oakland.....39-36.....5.....84-78

Minnisota.....38-36....5.5.....83-79

Toronto.....38-37......6.......

 NYY......36-37......7......79-83

SO - if the Jays continue on the pace of the past 7+ weeks - which is a reasonable supposition - they finish the season four games out from the Indians assuming the other teams neither surge or stumble.

I have long contended, without doing extensive research, that virtually every team that makes the playoffs (with the exception of those teams who are the best of a bad lot and win the division with 80-something wins) have at least one hot streak in their season when they win 8-9 games in a row (or something like 11 of 12 for example). Something the Jays with their newfound pitching groove are certainly capeable of.

In other words, this team is not in a hopeless state...but for the Streak, we would be but one game behind the Indians. Wh's to say they won't have a couple of cold weeks or that we won't have a couple of hot ones to counterbalance the effects of the Streak?

I'm not being irrational when I say this season is far from over. OTOH, the next month is probably critical in terms of beating the teams we need to beat. Our next TWENTY-SIX games are against teams ahead of us in the standings.  By July 27, we will know whether we are in or out of the race.

I'm not sure we could realized maximum value for Burnett if he's only made a handfull of starts coming off the DL.

If AJ makes 29-30 starts this year, I'd offer him $1-2m to defer his opt-out one more year.  If he declines, I'd take a look at his value in trade.

From the Syracuse Post Standard:
"Notes

Reliever Brandon League, in Syracuse on rehabilitation assignment, was recalled to Toronto on Tuesday. League, the Blue Jays' potential setup man, appeared in six games for the Chiefs. He was 0-0 with a 4.50 ERA. In his last outing, Monday at Scranton-Wilkes Barre, he pitched one inning and did not allow a hit or a run. "

ht tp://www.syracuse.com/articles/chiefs/index.ssf?/base/sports-0/1182935052159730.xml

I'm not sure I'm convinced he's ready to pitch in the majors quite yet, but it'll be interesting to see how he does. I watched part of one of the recent Syracuse games on milb.tv, and his velocity was around 93 peak, I think. Furthermore, he was getting under the ball and was elevating it a bit. His last outing was pretty good for the Cheifs, though - we shall see.

I'm not sure I'm convinced he's ready to pitch in the majors quite yet, but it'll be interesting to see how he does.

I'm guessing he'll be eased in as 7th man in the pen, so he'll go from rehab to R&R, logging an inning a week.

Rosario is hurt and has been unimpressive when healthy.  As much as I disagree with the way he was dismissed, it hasn't proved costly yet.

Meanwhile, I had to chuckle as Rotoworld chimed in on Ole Shea's upcoming DFA:

The Angels apparently will continue their attempts to trade him, but they haven't had any luck so far. The Yankees must figure that they'll be able to do better later on. And they're probably right. If Hillenbrand was half as good as he thought he was, he'd still be twice as good as he is.

For those scoring at home, I checked the math, and it means that Shea thinks he is four times the player he actually is.