Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - 18 June 2007: Josh and Doc (a Tale of Two Pitchers)

18 June 2007: Josh and Doc (a Tale of Two Pitchers)

It's the strangest thing. Some of us have suspected, over the years, that Josh Towers would be much better off if he left the AL East behind and took his act to the National League.

It makes sense, except for one small problem. Josh Towers can't beat National League teams. Since coming to the Blue Jays in 2003, he's made 13 starts against NL teams. He's won only one of them - and that was against a team (the Montreal Expos) that no longer exists.

Towers' first two wins as a major league starter came against the Expos and Mets back in May 2001, when he was a rookie with the Orioles. In the six years since then, he has one win against an NL team. Later in that 2001 season, he lost to the Braves. He didn't make another start against an NL team until 2004, by which time he was a Blue Jay. He made three consecutive starts against NL teams in June - the Dodgers cuffed him around in the first one, and he pitched very well (7 IP, 1 R both times) in the other two - a no-decision against San Diego and a win against Montreal.

He hasn't beaten an NL team since. In his otherwise outstanding 2005 season, Towers made 5 starts against the NL. He went 0-4, 3.86. As the ERA suggests, he didn't pitch that badly - in his four losses, the Jays scored a total of four runs and were shut out twice.

Towers stunk against the whole world in 2006, and his fortunes did not change against the NL. He lost two of his three starts, to Colorado and the Mets; he escaped with a no decision against the Braves (he left a 4-4 tie, the Jays won 6-5). And this season, since replacing Ohka, he's started against the Giants and Nationals and taken two more losses. He's 1-5 in his 6 starts this season. Although, when you consider that in those six games the Jays have scored 3, 2, 2, 3, 3, and 2 runs (15 altogther, 2.5 per game), perhaps the most surprising thing is that he was actually able to win one of them.

Anyway, since joining the Jays, Towers is 33-28 against the AL and 1-9 against the NL. Go figure.

I was in the house for two of the three Washington games - Doc on Friday night and Towers yesterday - alas, my other job (I have many) forced me to miss Marcum's outstanding work on Saturday.

For no particular reason, I thought it would be fun to chart each pitch thrown by the two starters, enter all kinds of stuff into a speadsheet and see what tidbits could be generated. And I got lucky. I got two starting performances that were extremely similar in a great many ways.

Hang on, I hear you say. Similar? One guy won and one guy lost. One guy was outstanding and one guy was... adequate, if you want to be generous about it.

I know. But consider these two games.

Halladay and Towers both faced 27 batters. They retired 19 of them, and recorded two more outs by double plays. (Halladay got an additional out thanks to a caught stealing.)

They allowed eight baserunners - one walk (Langerhans in both games), and seven hits. One of the hits was a home run.

Towers needed just 81 pitches to go through those 27 hitters, while Halladay threw 110 before leaving the game.

Towers retired the side in order in four of his seven innings, Halladay just twice. This has a lot to do with why Towers allowed four runs, and Halladay just two. The Nationals bunched their eight baserunners against Towers into just three innnings - Halladay scattered his eight baserunners over six innings (Doc pitched into the eighth, of course - it's one of just two innings where he allowed more than one man to reach base. The other was the fifth, where he gave up a leadoff single that was instantly erased by a double play, and then another single.)

But what I was really interested in was what each man was throwing. How were their pitches distributed? What did they do to start an at bat? What did they do when they fell behind? What did they do with two strikes on a hitter? I will provide Data Tables below so that you may, if you wish, find your own Items of Interest.

And a quick correction to something I wrote the other night. I was complaining about pitchers throwing the same breaking ball to a hitter on consecutive pitches. I noted how Bacsik threw three straight change-ups to Wells, and got burned for a double on the last one. I said Halladay only tried something similar once, and Schneider rapped a single on the second curveball. In fact, Doc did the same thing with Church in the second inning - (he took the first one for a strike, and fouled off the second one.)

Those two sequences were the only times that Halladay threw breaking balls on consecutive pitches. Towers, who throws a lot more breaking balls, does it much more often. In the fourth, he threw consecutive sliders to Kearns (ball, swinging strike); he did the same thing to Batista starting off the fifth (taken strike, flyout). He threw back-to-back sliders later in the inning to Belliard (swinging strike, base hit up the middle). On several other occasions he combined the slider with one of his other breaking pitches.

Anyway - Halladay threw 110 pitches on Friday night - 84 fastballs, 22 curves, and 4 change-ups. Towers threw 81 pitches on Sunday afternoon - 46 fastballs, 25 sliders, 7 change-ups, and 3 curveballs. Halladay threw the fastball on 76% of his pitches, Towers on 57% of his.

I'm using the speed readings from the scoreboard at the Dome, and according to it, the fastball breakdown was as follows:

Halladay: 94 mph (5), 93 mph (18), 92 mph (29), 91 mph (19), 90 mph (8), 89 mph (4), and 86 mph (1). That last one was actually a pitchout. Doc lost a little velocity as the night went on - most of his 94 fastballs came very early, and by around the sixth inning, he had settled into a nice groove in the 91-92 range. He also began mixing in more curveballs the second and third time through the order.

Towers: 91 mph (4); 90 mph (3), 89 mph (4), 88 mph (17), 87 mph (6), 86 mph (7), 85 mph (4), 83 mph (1). That last one may have been a change-up that he threw too well. At the beginning of the game, his fastball was 85-86, but he picked up velocity as the day wore on - by the fourth inning he was in the high 80s, and in the fifth inning, he started to hit 90 and 91.

Doc had 13 swinging strikes on the night - 10 off the fastball, 3 off the curve. Towers had 8 - 5 off the slider, 2 off the fastball, and 1 off a curve.

Halladay only threw 4 change-ups, but one was put in play - a single by Guzman. 4 of his curves were put in play - two hits (Schneider's single and Kearns' double), a flyout and a groundout. The fastball got him 10 groundouts (including the two DPs) and one flyout - he gave up 4 hits off his fastball (the Langerhans homer, and singles by Schneider, Lopez, and Kearns.)

Towers only throws his curve and change-up to LH batters. Fick put two change-ups in play (single and lineout); none of the curves were put in play. He gave up two hits (Young's double, Belliard's single) and got four outs on balls in play off his slider. There were 14 balls in play off his fastball - four of them were hits (Zimmerman's homer, Kearns' double, singles by Batista and Kearns.) He got seven hitters out on the ground (one a DP) and three in the air (1 a DP).

How do they begin an at bat? Each threw 27 first pitches. Halladay went with the fastball 22 times - he started 4 hitters with curves, and 1 with a change-up. Towers went with 12 fastballs, 10 sliders, 3 curves, and 2 change-ups.

What do they do when they need to throw a strike? These two pitchers don't get behind the hitter very often, of course. Halladay threw 4 pitches on a 3-2 count, and 3 pitches on a 2-0 count - and all seven times, he came in with a fastball. All but one of them were strikes (the one that walked Langerhans, when Bucknor had lost track of the count.)

Towers had just one 3-2 pitch - he threw a slider to Langerhans and walked him. He was behind 2-0 twice, both times to Fick. He threw a fastball the first time, a change-up the second time - on both occasions, Fick lined out to the right side of the infield.

When they get ahead 0-2, do they mess around with waste pitches or try to end the at bat? This was strange. Halladay had six 0-2 pitches, and threw a fastball every time. But he didn't end any of the at bats. One was a pitch-out, four of them missed for a ball, and one was fouled off. Towers also had six 0-2 pitches, and five times the next pitch ended the at bat. Towers threw 4 fastballs and 2 sliders in this situation. He missed the strike zone once, with a fastball to Batista. Langerhans struck out looking at a fastball and Kearns popped out on a slider. The other three 0-2 counts were all to Young, who grounded out on a fastball, struck out swinging at a fastball, and doubled to left on a slider.

I'm probably certifiably insane, but I can look over this stuff for hours.

I am, I have decided, the King of the Small Sample Size. Next week, in fact, I plan to write something about the Goodness of Small Sample Sizes, in the course of justifying my on-going interest, which absolutely no one else seems to share or care about, in Batter-Pitcher matchups.

Anyway, here are the Data Tables outlining all the pitches the two men threw, and what became of them:

Roy Halladay vs Washington, Friday 15 June (Zaun catching)

No.      Batter    Inning  Count Outs    Runners   Velocity   Pitch    Result  

 1        Guzman       1    0-0    0                   91    Fastball    s
 2        Guzman       1    0-1    0                   91    Fastball    t
 3        Guzman       1    0-2    0                   94    Fastball    b
 4        Guzman       1    1-2    0                   79    Curve       s    K swinging
 5        Lopez        1    0-0    1                   93    Fastball    b
 6        Lopez        1    1-0    1                   93    Fastball    b
 7        Lopez        1    2-0    1                   92    Fastball    t
 8        Lopez        1    2-1    1                   93    Fastball    f
 9        Lopez        1    2-2    1                   94    Fastball    h    G 43
10        Zimmerman    1    0-0    2                   94    Fastball    t
11        Zimmerman    1    0-1    2                   92    Fastball    b
12        Zimmerman    1    1-1    2                   94    Fastball    s
13        Zimmerman    1    1-2    2                   81    Curve       s    K swinging

14        Young        2    0-0    0                   91    Fastball    b
15        Young        2    1-0    0                   91    Fastball    f
16        Young        2    1-1    0                   78    Curve       t
17        Young        2    1-2    0                   91    Fastball    f
18        Young        2    1-2    0                   90    Fastball    f
19        Young        2    1-2    0                   79    Curve       h    G 43
20        Kearns       2    0-0    1                   93    Fastball    t
21        Kearns       2    0-1    1                   79    Curve       b
22        Kearns       2    1-1    1                   93    Fastball    f
23        Kearns       2    1-2    1                   92    Fastball    b
24        Kearns       2    2-2    1                   92    Fastball    b
25        Kearns       2    3-2    1                   92    Fastball    h    G 63
26        Church       2    0-0    2                   93    Fastball    b
27        Church       2    1-0    2                   93    Fastball    b
28        Church       2    2-0    2                   91    Fastball    f
29        Church       2    2-1    2                   78    Curve       t
30        Church       2    2-2    2                   78    Curve       f
31        Church       2    2-2    2                   92    Fastball    h    F 8

32        Schneider    3    0-0    0                   76    Curve       b
33        Schneider    3    1-0    0                   92    Fastball    s
34        Schneider    3    1-1    0                   92    Fastball    h    G 63
35        Logan        3    0-0    1                   93    Fastball    g
36        Logan        3    0-1    1                   91    Fastball    b
37        Logan        3    1-1    1                   92    Fastball    s
38        Logan        3    1-2    1                   81    Curve       s    K swinging
39        Langerhans   3    0-0    2                   93    Fastball    t
40        Langerhans   3    0-1    2                   86    Change      b
41        Langerhans   3    1-1    2                   92    Fastball    s
42        Langerhans   3    1-2    2                   79    Curve       b
43        Langerhans   3    2-2    2                   93    Fastball    f
44        Langerhans   3    2-2    2                   80    Curve       b
45        Langerhans   3    3-2    2                   92    Fastball    f
46        Langerhans   3    3-2    2                   94    Fastball    b    WALK
47        Guzman       3    0-0    2        1          87    Change      t
48        Guzman       3    0-1    2        1          89    Fastball    s
49        Guzman       3    0-2    2        1          86    Fastball    p
50        Guzman       3    1-2    2        1          90    Fastball    h    G 43

51        Lopez        4    0-0    0                   77    Curve       b
52        Lopez        4    1-0    0                   92    Fastball    t
53        Lopez        4    1-1    0                   93    Fastball    h    SINGLE (infield)
54        Zimmerman    4    0-0    0        1          92    Fastball    r
55        Zimmerman    4    0-1    0        1          78    Curve       t
56        Zimmerman    4    0-2    0        1          93    Fastball    f
57        Zimmerman    4    0-2    0        1          91    Fastball    b  CAUGHT STEALING
58        Zimmerman    4    1-2    1                   93    Fastball    h    G 13
59        Young        4    0-0    2                   78    Curve       h    F 7

60        Kearns       5    0-0    0                   91    Fastball    h    SINGLE (soft liner)
61        Church       5    0-0    0        1          91    Fastball    b
62        Church       5    1-0    0        1          90    Fastball    h    GDP 463
63        Schneider    5    0-0    2                   92    Fastball    b
64        Schneider    5    1-0    2                   91    Fastball    f
65        Schneider    5    1-1    2                   84    Change      f
66        Schneider    5    1-2    2                   93    Fastball    b
67        Schneider    5    2-2    2                   78    Curve       f
68        Schneider    5    2-2    2                   78    Curve       h    SINGLE(liner to RF)
69        Logan        5    0-0    2        1          92    Fastball    b
70        Logan        5    1-0    2        1          93    Fastball    b
71        Logan        5    2-0    2        1          93    Fastball    s
72        Logan        5    2-1    2        1          92    Fastball    b
73        Logan        5    3-1    2        1          92    Fastball    f
74        Logan        5    3-2    2        1          92    Fastball    s    K swinging

75        Langerhans   6    0-0    0                   91    Fastball    t
76        Langerhans   6    0-1    0                   90    Fastball    t
77        Langerhans   6    0-2    0                   89    Fastball    b
78        Langerhans   6    1-2    0                   79    Curve       f
79        Langerhans   6    1-2    0                   92    Fastball    f
80        Langerhans   6    1-2    0                   78    Curve       t    K looking
81        Guzman       6    0-0    1                   90    Fastball    t
82        Guzman       6    0-1    1                   84    Change      h    SINGLE ((grounder CF)
83        Lopez        6    0-0    1        1          92    Fastball    t
84        Lopez        6    0-1    1        1          91    Fastball    b
85        Lopez        6    1-1    1        1          89    Fastball    h    GDP 643

86        Zimmerman    7    0-0    0                   77    Curve       t
87        Zimmerman    7    0-1    0                   92    Fastball    h    G 53
88        Young        7    0-0    1                   93    Fastball    t
89        Young        7    0-1    1                   92    Fastball    h    G 43
90        Kearns       7    0-0    2                   92    Fastball    t
91        Kearns       7    0-1    2                   79    Curve       h    DOUBLE  (liner to LF)
92        Church       7    0-0    2        2          92    Fastball    t
93        Church       7    0-1    2        2          89    Fastball    b
94        Church       7    1-1    2        2          92    Fastball    h    G 43

95        Schneider    8    0-0    0                   91    Fastball    b
96        Schneider    8    1-0    0                   92    Fastball    t
97        Schneider    8    1-1    0                   91    Fastball    b
98        Schneider    8    2-1    0                   91    Fastball    f
99        Schneider    8    2-2    0                   90    Fastball    h    SINGLE (infield)
100       Logan        8    0-0    0        1          91    Fastball    s
101       Logan        8    0-1    0        1          92    Fastball    s
102       Logan        8    0-2    0        1          91    Fastball    b
103       Logan        8    1-2    0        1          78    Curve       b
104       Logan        8    2-2    0        1          92    Fastball    f
105       Logan        8    2-2    0        1          78    Curve       t    K looking
106       Langerhans   8    0-0    1        1          90    Fastball    f
107       Langerhans   8    0-1    1        1          93    Fastball    b
108       Langerhans   8    1-1    1        1          92    Fastball    f
109       Langerhans   8    1-2    1        1          90    Fastball    b
110       Langerhans   8    2-2    1        1          91    Fastball    h    HOMERUN (RF)

Josh Towers vs Washington, Sunday 17 June (Phillips catching)

No.       Batter    Inning Count Outs    Runners   Velocity  Pitch    Result    AB Result
 1        Guzman       1    0-0    0                   86    Fastball    b
 2        Guzman       1    1-0    0                   85    Fastball    f
 3        Guzman       1    1-1    0                   78    Change      f
 4        Guzman       1    1-2    0                   81    Slider      s    K swinging
 5        Belliard     1    0-0    1                   86    Fastball    h    F 8
 6        Zimmerman    1    0-0    2                   86    Fastball    t
 7        Zimmerman    1    0-1    2                   87    Fastball    f
 8        Zimmerman    1    0-2    2                   82    Slider      h    P 4

 9        Young        2    0-0    0                   80    Change      t
10        Young        2    0-1    0                   85    Fastball    f
11        Young        2    0-2    0                   84    Slider      h    DOUBLE  (liner to LF)
12        Kearns       2    0-0    0        2          79    Slider      t
13        Kearns       2    0-1    0        2          85    Fastball    h    DOUBLE  (liner to RF)
14        Schneider    2    0-0    0        2          86    Fastball    h    G 63
15        Batista      2    0-0    1        3          87    Fastball    b
16        Batista      2    1-0    1        3          81    Slider      s
17        Batista      2    1-1    1        3          88    Fastball    f
18        Batista      2    1-2    1        3          84    Slider      f
19        Batista      2    1-2    1        3          88    Fastball    b
20        Batista      2    2-2    1        3          88    Fastball    h    SINGLE (grounder CF)
21        Fick         2    0-0    1        1          88    Fastball    b
22        Fick         2    1-0    1        1          88    Fastball    b
23        Fick         2    2-0    1        1          87    Fastball    h    LDP 43

24        Langerhans   3    0-0    0                   85    Fastball    f
25        Langerhans   3    0-1    0                   88    Fastball    f
26        Langerhans   3    0-2    0                   88    Fastball    t    K looking
27        Guzman       3    0-0    1                   74    Curve       t
28        Guzman       3    0-1    1                   88    Fastball    b
29        Guzman       3    1-1    1                   87    Fastball    h    G 43
30        Belliard     3    0-0    2                   83    Slider      b
31        Belliard     3    1-0    2                   86    Fastball    h    G 53

32        Zimmerman    4    0-0    0                   86    Fastball    h    HOMERUN (LF)
33        Young        4    0-0    0                   88    Fastball    t
34        Young        4    0-1    0                   80    Slider      f
35        Young        4    0-2    0                   89    Fastball    s    K swinging
36        Kearns       4    0-0    1                   78    Slider      b
37        Kearns       4    1-0    1                   82    Slider      s
38        Kearns       4    1-1    1                   83    Fastball    h    SINGLE (soft liner CF)
39        Schneider    4    0-0    1        1          83    Slider      b
40        Schneider    4    1-0    1        1          88    Fastball    f
41        Schneider    4    1-1    1        1          82    Change      b
42        Schneider    4    2-1    1        1          90    Fastball    h    GDP 643

43        Batista      5    0-0    0                   82    Slider      t
44        Batista      5    0-1    0                   78    Slider      h    F 7
45        Fick         5    0-0    1                   76    Curve       t
46        Fick         5    0-1    1                   82    Change      h    SINGLE (liner LF)
47        Langerhans   5    0-0    1        1          87    Fastball    b
48        Langerhans   5    1-0    1        1          89    Fastball    f
49        Langerhans   5    1-1    1        1          87    Fastball    f
50        Langerhans   5    1-2    1        1          82    Slider      b
51        Langerhans   5    2-2    1        1          91    Fastball    b
52        Langerhans   5    3-2    1        1          81    Slider      b    WALK
53        Guzman       5    0-0    1        12         84    Slider      t
54        Guzman       5    0-1    1        12         91    Fastball    b
55        Guzman       5    1-1    1        12         91    Fastball    f
56        Guzman       5    1-2    1        12         90    Fastball    b
57        Guzman       5    2-2    1        12         84    Slider      h    FC 36
58        Belliard     5    0-0    2        13         83    Slider      s
59        Belliard     5    0-1    2        13         82    Slider      h    SINGLE (grounder CF)
60        Zimmerman    5    0-0    2        12         82    Slider      h    FC 64

61        Young        6    0-0    0                   74    Curve       f
62        Young        6    0-1    0                   82    Slider      s
63        Young        6    0-2    0                   88    Fastball    h    G 43
64        Kearns       6    0-0    1                   89    Fastball    b
65        Kearns       6    1-0    1                   89    Fastball    f
66        Kearns       6    1-1    1                   90    Fastball    h    G 43
67        Schneider    6    0-0    2                   79    Slider      b
68        Schneider    6    1-0    2                   82    Change      s
69        Schneider    6    1-1    2                   88    Fastball    h    G 63

70        Batista      7    0-0    0                   88    Fastball    t
71        Batista      7    0-1    0                   88    Fastball    f
72        Batista      7    0-2    0                   88    Fastball    b
73        Batista      7    1-2    0                   80    Slider      b
74        Batista      7    2-2    0                   86    Fastball    h    F 8
75        Fick         7    0-0    1                   84    Slider      b
76        Fick         7    1-0    1                   88    Fastball    b
77        Fick         7    2-0    1                   82    Change      h    L 3
78        Langerhans   7    0-0    2                   83    Change      t
79        Langerhans   7    0-1    2                   83    Slider      b
80        Langerhans   7    1-1    2                   88    Fastball    t
81        Langerhans   7    1-2    2                   91    Fastball    s    K swinging

My work is done.

Posted by Magpie on Monday, June 18 2007 @ 12:05 AM EDT.

18 June 2007: Josh and Doc (a Tale of Two Pitchers) | 49 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

scottt - Monday, June 18 2007 @ 06:42 AM EDT (#170023) #

It is still missing a bit of valuable info.

Location: how many of these piches were up in the zone? I can't imagine Towers getting away with an 85 fastball right down the plate.

Any of these slider left hanging up there? How many 80mph sliders did Towers serve to lefties?

Magpie - Monday, June 18 2007 @ 06:56 AM EDT (#170024) #

1. I can't tell much of anything about location from where I'm sitting in the park. Sorry. You've got a better perspective if you're watching TV.

2. Anybody can get away with an 85 mph fastball right down the middle if the hitter has been set up properly.

3. Towers threw one 80 mph slider to a LH batter, and Young fouled it off. He struck out Guzman on an 81 mph slider, and walked Langerhans with another. (This was in the table!).

dalimon5 - Monday, June 18 2007 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#170026) #

good job. Maybe try mixing in the PVR for location tidbits next time.

Dave Till - Monday, June 18 2007 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#170027) #

The first thing that struck me was that Halladay's fastball moves so much that he can safely use it as his default pitch. He doesn't have to throw it by batters or locate it perfectly to be effective with it. Towers, as we all know, doesn't have that much margin for error.

Mike Green - Monday, June 18 2007 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#170029) #

Taking a macro perspective, Towers has over his career performed significantly worse with runners on base. The other interesting thing is that over his career, he hasn't fared that much better after the count goes 0-1 than after it goes 1-0. He gains 100 points of OPS, whereas Halladay gains 180.

Towers' modus operandi is to throw strike one. That normally is a very good idea, but in his particular case, it would probably be wise to try to throw the first pitch 3 inches outside the strike zone once every three or four batters.

Mick Doherty - Monday, June 18 2007 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#170033) #

Just skimming the Towers pitch chart, it's interesting that he threw, by my quick count, just five pitches that broke 90 mph -- but one of those was the final pitch he threw. So it's unlikely he was tiring or anything.

Mike Green - Monday, June 18 2007 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#170035) #

I can't understand why Towers wouldn't throw his curve to right-handed batters. It's not as though he has a nuclear slider, so he needs a pitch to disrupt timing. The change isn't it. The curve is probably his best option. Actually, the 0-0 curveball 3" off the outside corner and down to the right-handed hitter every once in awhile would be a start.

One of the problems with telling a pitcher that he is on a short leash is that it creates a too powerful incentive to reduce pitch counts, and hence the reluctance to throw the less reliable curve.

AWeb - Monday, June 18 2007 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#170036) #

Don't confuse being tired with a lack of velocity. Burnett is exhibit A: He seems like he can throw 95-98 mph all night, but that doesn't mean he's not tired. Location and mechanics can break down well before the velocity goes for some guys. And Towers is still working his way back into starting shape at this point, one would think. I was glad they left him in to finish up 7 innings, perhaps showing he might be given a chance to genuinely win a job back. 4 runs against Washington, with the worst offense in the majors, featuring several of the worst hitters of the last few years (Guzman, Batista, Fick), is not a ringing endorsement of his skills though. Next start would be Colorado, who are comparable to Toronto offense wise (so far this year, anyway).

laketrout - Monday, June 18 2007 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#170039) #

So we know Towers has problems when pitching with runners on base (.250/.287/.388 vs. .324/.346/.662). My question is why? Is his mechanics that different when pitching from the stretch or is he spending too much time focusing on the runner instead of batter or is trying too hard to avoid making further mistakes that he loses focus?

Maybe he needs Thomas to lecture him between every inning...

John Northey - Monday, June 18 2007 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#170042) #

Good to see Thomas give that talk to Towers. 2 runs over 5 IP after it so that is good, plus Thomas cracking the HR was good too (namely doing it as well as talking it).

Towers looked more like a guy who cares after the HR he gave up, I thought at the time he was about to quit but just one more run after that.

Lets hope he can keep this type of pitching up, 4 runs or less over 6 or more innings each time out would be acceptable with the way everyone else is going. Given what we got in AAA (no one really that impressive at the moment) Towers is the #5 guy until further notice.

John Northey - Monday, June 18 2007 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#170043) #

Thanks for the fun bit of info up there.

Looking at the staff it is getting interesting
As a starter in order of total starts...
AJ - 4.00 ERA 14 starts & DL
Halladay - 4.37 ERA 12 starts
Ohka - 5.79 ERA 10 starts & gone
McGowan - 4.78 ERA 8 starts
Marcum - 2.38 ERA 7 starts
Towers - 5.03 ERA 6 starts
Chacin - 5.60 ERA 5 starts & DL
Litsch - 6.62 ERA 4 starts & back to AA
Zambrano - 16.88 ERA 2 starts & please let him go

We all know Janssen is not getting a start this season. He is just doing too well as a setup man. In 08 he'll be an option (pen then could be killer with BJ, Accardo, Downs, Tallet, Frasor, and a cast of thousands for the 6/7 slots).

AAA options to fill in for AJ...
Banks - 5.03 ERA in 13 starts
Taubenheim - 5.63 ERA in 11 starts
Ramirez - 5.80 ERA in 10 starts
MacDonald - 4.44 ERA in 8 starts (2.51 over 5 in AA)
Thomson - 4.58 ERA in 7 starts (4.09 over 2 in A)
Zambrano - 8.41 ERA in 4 starts (6 ER in 10.1 IP over 2 starts at other levels)
Jason Scobie - 3.18 ERA in 3 starts & 4 relief outtings

No one there catches me as having earned a call-up.

In AA...
Yates - 3.26 ERA 12 starts 1.36 WHIP though
Purcey - 5.37 ERA 11 starts
Litsch - 2.13 ERA 9 starts - 4.67 ERA since sent back down
Isenberg - 4.66 ERA 8 starts
Savickas - 6.82 ERA 7 starts
Iriki - 6.93 ERA 5 starts

Pretty ugly outside of Litsch & Yates and Yates looks lucky while Litsch has slumped since being demoted.

I'm betting if AJ is DL'ed (as expected) we see Thomson finally get his chance with Banks or Taubenheim being the wild cards if AJ is gone for just one or two more starts (on 40 man, give one shot to see if they can live up to the challenge and view it as a 'give the pen a lot of work day'). Of course, they can just shift Chacin to the 60 day DL and put Thomson into that slot (Chacin would be able to come back at the end of June with that move, and there is no chance of him being ready by then anyways).

Hmm... I wonder if that $500k bonus for being on the opening day roster would still apply to Thomson if he gets called up? Could explain the delay in calling him up.

FYI: Looking at the 40 man I noticed just 2 hitters not in the majors on it - Santos (AA SS) and Diaz (AA CA) vs 10 pitchers.

Mike Green - Monday, June 18 2007 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#170044) #

The other option is to call up League and move Janssen to the rotation. I am not sure if League is quite ready yet.

ayjackson - Monday, June 18 2007 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#170045) #

Nice job Magpie. Interesting stuff. My comment is that Doc throws three fastballs - a two seamer that he sinks (which is his bread and butter), a four seamer which he rarely uses, and a cutter. I'm not sure Josh has three fastballs that he throws as effectively as Doc. He just seems to use the four seamer and try to locate it perfectly. Having multiple fastballs is a huge advantage for Doc.

Pistol - Monday, June 18 2007 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#170047) #

We all know Janssen is not getting a start this season. He is just doing too well as a setup man

Funny how things work out that way. If Janssen's going to continue to put up a 1.00 ERA in his role then it makes sense to leave him alone, but that's probably not realistic and the team's probably better off if he starts.

And here's a thought.... Janssen might be the Blue Jays' sole All Star representative this year.

I suspect that Litsch would get the call if they needed another starter.

Ryan Day - Monday, June 18 2007 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#170048) #

League doesn't look quite ready yet - 11 Ks in 11 minor-league innings is nice, but the 11 hits and 8 walks show some rust. I'd give him another couple weeks in AAA.

If the Jays want to go with the "hot hand", Taubenheim might be an option: He was horrible in May, but had a decent April and is looking pretty good in June: 3.00 ERA, 15ip, 18 K, 3 BB. (Though personally, I think he looks like a good reliever, but probably not a real starter)

But after Taubenheim, or possibly Thomson - who hasn't been so hot lately - they've got to go with Janssen. Yes, it weakens the pen, but getting 2 innings out of a Victor Zambrano or Jesse Litsch start weakens the pen quite a bit, too. "He's been good in relief" isn't a good enough reason to keep him there - Roy Halladay would be a pretty darn awesome reliever, too.

Mike Green - Monday, June 18 2007 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#170049) #

Using a reliever's ERA over 40 innings to measure past performance is not a great idea, but to use it to project future performance is truly unwise.

Pistol - Monday, June 18 2007 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#170052) #

I hope I wasn't implying that.

Here's a question: At what point is a pitcher more valuable as a reliever than a starter? For instance if you could have 80 innings with a 2.00 ERA or 180 innings with a 4.50 ERA would you rather have the pitcher as a reliever?

I suppose we could just break out the ESPN player ratings to find out!

Looking at VORP Janssen's 0.97 ERA in 37 innnings has been as valuable as Curt Schilling's 3.80 ERA in 90 innings.

And here's an illustration why drafting is so cost effective - in the 2004 draft the Jays paid about $5 million for the entire draft class. Lind and Janssen are worth more than that combined just this year. You only have to be successful with one player to have an entire draft be cost effective. Which is reason why players with higher price tags shouldn't be dismissed.

Chuck - Monday, June 18 2007 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#170054) #

Good to see Thomas give that talk to Towers.

Did anyone else find this odd? A DH, who is hitting .220 and slugging under .400, has the temerity to give it to a starting pitcher?

Now, Thomas may well be a formidable presence in the dressing room, what with the HoF career that's behind him, and can do what he did without ruffling feathers. I just found it odd. Certainly somebody could rightfully call him out for his miserable two months, though finding volunteers might be an issue.

Ryan Day - Monday, June 18 2007 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#170055) #

Part of the "Where is Janssen more valuable" discussion has to involve the rest of the team. In the (healthy) starting rotation, they've got Halladay, Marcum, McGowan, Towers, and ... Somebody.

In the bullpen, you've got Accardo, Downs, Tallet, and Frasor all pitching extremely well, plus whatever AAA callups Gibbons uses once-a-month in extreme mop-up duty. Of the current relievers, only Downs would be a viable option in the rotation, but not a terribly good one.

The good reasons for leaving Janssen in the pen would be a) there are already five good starters in the rotation, or b) he can't handle starting. The first certainly isn't true, and we don't know that the second is true: Janssen looked like a decent starter last year before back problems derailed him, and he looked extremely good in spring training.

And it's true, of course: He's not going to finish the year with a sub-1.00 ERA. Almost no one does that. It's kind of funny - if he got smacked around a bit more often, like Marcum did early on, the Jays might be more willing to put him in the rotation.

Mike Green - Monday, June 18 2007 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#170056) #

Pistol, I don't think that you had suggested that.

There are three elements. First, relievers as a whole are roughly 10% more effective than starters with respect to K rate, BB rate and HR rate (Steve Treder studied pitchers who worked in both roles about a year ago in THT). The role allows relievers to simply pitch better for the time they are out there. Second, run-attribution rules for runners left on favours relievers. Third, there is even more unpredictability in the transition between fielding-independent measures and ERA over few innings.

Janssen's FIP is way down from 2006 to 2007, because his HR/fly rate has fallen like a stone. If you believe that is sustainable (I don't), you would mark him down as a reliever for 45 innings and a 3.30 FIP for the remainder of the season. If you don't believe that it's sustainable, you would mark him down for 45 innings and a 4.50 FIP for the remainder of the season as a reliever. You would mark him down for 110 innings and a 4.75 FIP as a starter, which would be better.

If the real disparity was as great as 2.00 as a reliever and 4.50 as a starter, you'd be better off to leverage the reliever innings. That is probably still true at 3.30/4.75, but not at 4.5/.4.75. Where the breaking point is depends on the other options on the staff.

subculture - Monday, June 18 2007 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#170057) #

I'd let Litsch start over Towers... and when is Chacin coming back?

It just seems we spend way more time talking about Towers than is justified... physically his stuff is borderline, but would be more than acceptable if he had a strong mental game... but this doesn't seem to be the case.

Give JL a chance, 10 consecutive starts to prove he's ready or not....

I think Janssen is too good in that spot now... let him be successful all year and consider him for rotation next year...

cybernetic - Monday, June 18 2007 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#170062) #

Clearly, Litsch brief stint up here proved he's not ready and needs more seasoning in the minors. He did really well on his first start due to adrenaline and the hitters not knowing his stuff as well. In his latter 3 starts after his outstanding first start, he clearly showed his command was not quite ready and once the hitters got a scouting report on him they rocked him. I'd give him at least the rest of the year in the minors and think about calling him again up next season if he shows he's ready.

Joanna - Monday, June 18 2007 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#170063) #

As I posted in another thread, a start by commitee could be done if the AJ shoulder problem isn't serious.

Did anyone else find this odd? A DH, who is hitting .220 and slugging under .400, has the temerity to give it to a starting pitcher?

Not really. Thomas is a legend and his stature in the game preceeds him. And he talked to Towers in spring training about shaking bad pitches off and not letting them eat him up after Towers had a little fit in the dugout. This is what a team is supposed to do. I like that word 'temerity' though. This team needs a little temerity.

And here's a thought.... Janssen might be the Blue Jays' sole All Star representative this year.

Did Rios and Hill die?

Maldoff - Monday, June 18 2007 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#170070) #

I know this is out of nowhere, but with the struggles the Jays have had at SS, and the fact that Rey Olmedo has come back down to earth (his OPS in AAA is .653), what do people think of approaching the Rockies to make a deal for Clint Barmes? He was pretty solid 2 seasons ago, and won't be getting back into their lineup any time soon with Troy Tulowitzki in front of him. What do we tihnk it would take? Should we be interested?

Pistol - Monday, June 18 2007 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#170071) #

Did Rios and Hill die?

Well, either Polanco or Cano is going to be the starter at 2B and Upton is hitting great and should be the reserve. And if those weren't the two 2B, I imagine that Brian Roberts would get the nod over Hill.

Vlad, Manny and Ichiro will be the starting OFs. Ordonez is certain to be a reserve (33 doubles already!?!). Hunter will make it over Rios and Granderson & Sizemore might too (Granderson has 13 triples!?!).

Ryan Day - Monday, June 18 2007 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#170072) #

Depends on what the Rockies would want, but I'd be reluctant to give up much for a guy who, at his best, is probably Royce Clayton in his prime (career 282/325/425 at home), and at his worst is sub-Royce Clayton 2007 (career 219/260/330 on the road).

I'd probably rather have Ray Olmedo.

John Northey - Monday, June 18 2007 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#170073) #

I agree that Janssen would probably be best used in the rotation and that if I ran the team he'd be there right now.

However, this is a team which had a nightmare with the pen in the first month before Accardo turned into Tom Henke and Janssen into Mark Eichhorn. I can certainly understand the team being very hesitant to play around with something that is working. That is why I do not see Janssen being anywhere but setup until 2008, when BJ is back and roles have to be readjusted.

The 4/5 holes, currently manned by Towers and ??? will not be open too much longer with any luck. AJ (hopefully) just needs a couple weeks off and the 5th starter slot can always be shuffled around when needed (ie: skip the 5th man whenever possible, use a mix and match of the pen and any hot minor leaguers when needed).

FYI: Jays Starters: 4.73 ERA, 10th in the AL
Jay Bullpen: 3.21 ERA, 2nd in AL

For humour - the bottom 4 bullpen ERA's in the AL
Baltimore 5.16 ERA, Detroit 5.27, Tampa Bay 5.75, ChiSox 5.88. #10 in ERA is KC at 4.32 so one heck of a big shift from the worst to the rest. Boston is #1 at 2.99, and the Padres at 2.11 are the only other team doing better than the Jays out of the pen. Not bad for a team missing its closer and setup guy.

Oh, for starters always remember it could be worse. Texas is at 6.80 ERA for its starting staff. In other words Litsch pitched better than the average starter for Texas, as did Ohka, Chacin, and Towers. Only Zambrano would be a downgrade for them.

Anders - Monday, June 18 2007 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#170075) #

I think Troy Glaus probably has a fighting chance to make the All Star Game. A-Rod will be voted in as the starter, and then Glaus ranks 4th in HR, 7th in RBI, 3rd in Avg., 2nd in OBP, Slg and OPS. He just runs into trouble with the counting stats as he has about 100 fewer ABs then most other 3b. Given that his OPS in June is 1.103, he can probably make up a little ground. Of course Mike Lowell or Eric Chavez will probably get picked, but I'd say Glaus is pretty deserving.

BulletJayFan - Monday, June 18 2007 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#170077) #

Banks - 5.03 ERA in 13 starts

Josh had one really absolutely atrocious outing (1 IP, 10ER) and if you take it out of the equation, he's 6-3, 3.93. His K/9 numbers maybe aren't as good as you would like (50 in 77, I believe), but I think all he needs is a more polished changeup to really be a viable major league option, because his breaking pitch breaks.

And as for League, I saw him in yesterday's Chiefs game, and he isn't ready. His fastball is moving like it used to, but his velocity on the stadium gun was between 87-91 on his fastball. Some caveats, however. He had pitched in 3 of 4 games, and the Syracuse gun may well be the slowest gun in baseball. Me and the guy I do games with for BIS ganerally agree it takes 2 mph off every pitch. We may just be kidding ourselves, but it wouldn't surprise me (the fastest I've ever seen a pitch recorded on that gun was 95 by Robert Person). Still, that leaves League at only 93 mph, and his control could use some work, too.

Magpie - Monday, June 18 2007 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#170078) #

My comment is that Doc throws three fastballs - a two seamer that he sinks (which is his bread and butter), a four seamer which he rarely uses, and a cutter. I'm not sure Josh has three fastballs that he throws as effectively as Doc.

Josh doesn't have one fastball that he throws as effectively as Doc...

BA-Da-BOOM! That fastball was right in my wheelhouse, I couldn't lay off!

Seriously, I think you're absolutely right about Halladay. In retrospect, all the worries last year about his loss of velocity? He simply fell completely in love with his cutter, and was throwing it all the time. And you can see why, it's a great pitch for him.

The Towers-Thomas dynamic is interesting and healthy. Towers needs to pitch with a bit of an edge, and a bit of cockiness - and his confidence has, for good and obvious reasons, taken a bit of a beating lately. But he absolutely can't nibble - he has to challenge the hitter.

This may seem counter-intuitive, because you might think that the one pitcher in the organization who is least likely to walk a guy, the one who can throw a strike pretty much anytime he wants to, would be the guy who could actually afford to nibble and mess around a bit. But no... Towers can't work behind the hitters. If he isn't getting ahead of them , he has no chance.

Of course, Towers also gets in trouble when he gets too aggressive out there, and tries to overpower the likes of David Ortiz...

Ron - Monday, June 18 2007 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#170080) #

I'm curious to find out how much trade value does Rios have. Would the A's be interested in dealing Rich Harden (once he proves he's healthy) for Rios in the off-season? Do the Braves have any interest in Rios to replace Andruw Jones in CF? Saltalamacchia is blocked by McCann at catcher. I imagine he's happy to be in the big leagues but doesn't see himself as a 1B long term.

With AJ bolting after next season (assuming he doesn't get injured for the whole season you would be a fool to think he would stay) and Doc getting older, the Jays need to think about the front of the rotation. The Catcher position is also a big weakness. Thigpen doesn't defend well enough to stay at catcher and that's what you hear rumblings the Jays might move him to 2B next season. There's no other Catchers ready to take over in the farm system and Zaun isn't getting any younger.

Sherrystar - Monday, June 18 2007 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#170082) #

It might be worth exploring the idea... but not for Harden. You would hae to get a healthy, proven starter back. (And yes, I know, nobody will trade a studd pitcher for an outfielder...)

It also may be worth exploring moving Big Troy... the Dodgers are just sying for a power bat.

Since most people are assuming AJ walks next year, might the Jays be interested in Buherle in the off-season?

Anders - Monday, June 18 2007 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#170085) #

Tomo Ohka has been released.

http://www.thestar.com/Sports/article/226657

scottt - Monday, June 18 2007 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#170087) #

Looking at Towers's situational stats, lefties hit him for .240 and righties .319 for the year. I'd say the slider/fastball approach doesn't cut it and he needs a third pitch.

Strangely enough Halladay is .272/284 while Marcum has an amazing .264/.144 combo.

Lefty - Monday, June 18 2007 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#170088) #

Give JL a chance, 10 consecutive starts to prove he's ready or not....

I just don't think theres much doubt that the kid is not ready. He was given a chance and in fact his performance in Toronto and his 4+ era since return indicates that maybe some damage has been done to his confidence.

His first start screams fluke.

Leave him alone until September, then throw him into the bullpen.

Ryan Day - Monday, June 18 2007 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#170089) #

I'd certainly trade Alex Rios for a healthy Rich Harden. Since we haven't seen a healthy Rich Harden since 2004, though, I wouldn't get my hopes up. (ooh - maybe we could get a healthy Bobby Crosby, too!)

Joanna - Monday, June 18 2007 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#170094) #

if Harden's injured, he's not worth Rios. If he's not injured, the A's probably don't trade him.

PaulE-O - Tuesday, June 19 2007 @ 06:56 AM EDT (#170095) #

why would AJ walk after next year?

AWeb - Tuesday, June 19 2007 @ 08:10 AM EDT (#170098) #

He has an out clause in his contract, so if he pitches reasonably well, he will probably opt out and get more money, like JD Drew did this year. $11 million a year doesn't look like so much after this past offseason. Getting him injured through overuse is all part of Toronto's devious plan to hold onto him.

PaulE-O - Tuesday, June 19 2007 @ 09:50 AM EDT (#170103) #

that's total B.S., if you're comparing Burnett's contract to Lilly or Meche then that's silly, because they're both better pitchers than him

Burnett has done nothing to show that he's unhappy here, or that he'd like to go somewhere else, I mean he DID choose to sign here

I find it fascinating how blue jays fans always assume players don't want to be here

Mick Doherty - Tuesday, June 19 2007 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#170106) #

that's total B.S., if you're comparing Burnett's contract to Lilly or Meche then that's silly, because they're both better pitchers than him

I went back and read that several times to make sure I was seeing it right. You're saying Lilly and Meche are both better than Burnett? Really? I'd love to hear your argument on that point. Based on ERA+ alone, and of course one stat comparisons are always spurious, Meche (100) and Lilly (101) are essentially league average while Burnett (112) is clearly a step above that, though not in the Halladay/Oswalt/Santana mode.

Seriously, what's the argument you're making? Or am I misreading your statement?

AWeb - Tuesday, June 19 2007 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#170110) #

Since my statement apparently cause at least one persons confusion: I'm not saying that Burnett is unhappy here, or that he doesn't like it here. I would note that the Jays needed to offer an extra year and more money than anyone else to get him here in the first place (according to reports at the time). If Burnett can get a longer-term contract for more money by opting out, he will probably do so. Nothing against Toronto, but millions of dollars are hard to turn down, even if you already have millions of dollars. I think a likely course is the Jays being forced to extend his already long contract to keep him.

Lilly is only better than Burnett in terms of injury risk (and Lilly himself hasn't made it through a whole season healthy). Meche...well...if you think Meche is better than Burnett, then I don't know how to respond. He is two years younger I guess.

Mike Green - Tuesday, June 19 2007 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#170112) #

Ricciardi had crowed this off-season about his prescience in reading the 2005-06 free-agent market when he signed Ryan and Burnett to the contracts. The implication, to me anyways, was that Burnett would be worth more now.

Anyways, Burnett's agreed-upon salary for 09-10 is $12 million per. In light of his performance and injury history so far, it is not at all clear to me that he is likely to opt out for economic reasons.

Mick Doherty - Tuesday, June 19 2007 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#170117) #

though not in the Halladay/Oswalt/Santana mode.

Incidentally, I wrote that off the top of my head and then felt compelled to see if I was off. Regarding ERA+ (same "spurious" comment as above), Halladay is at 128 while Oswalt and Santana are both in the 140s, so you could say that Meche: Burnett :: Halladay: Oswalt, I guess.

Though I would guess the actual difference between 128/143 and 100/116 is actually MUCH smaller as the numbers get higher.

PaulE-O - Tuesday, June 19 2007 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#170118) #

both Ted Lilly and Meche entered free agency coming off more attractive years than Burnett's 2005 season

Ted and Meche were both less of an injury risk than Burnett was when entering free agency

all around both were better investments

Burnett has got a great contract for what kind of pitcher he is, particularly in light of the fact that he's broken down both years he's been here - he's not going anywhere

you guys need to calm down

Mike Green - Tuesday, June 19 2007 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#170119) #

Halladay's career ERA+ takes a big hit from his lost 64 innings at age 23. When you take into account league differences, he and Oswalt are close, but well behind Johan Santana. BBRef gets the comps for Halladay and Oswalt right- Mussina, Tim Hudson, Appier, but for Santana, it gets a complete miss. They need to put greater weight on K rate and W rate for comparability purposes. There aren't a whole lot of pitchers who come up at age 25 and are dominant and with good control. J.R Richard came up at age 25 and was dominant, but with poor control until age 29.

Usually pitchers as good as Santana come up a couple of years like Seaver, or at 21 like Vida Blue. Rube Waddell came into his own at age 25, and was very good in a Santana-like (but just short) way through his 20s, but Waddell's personal issues make him a less than helpful comp. I think of Koufax and Guidry, but neither quite gets Santana.

Ryan Day - Tuesday, June 19 2007 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#170121) #

both Ted Lilly and Meche entered free agency coming off more attractive years than Burnett's 2005 season

Nope. In 2005, Burnett pitched 209 ip, with a 117 ERA+ and 198 Ks. He'd put up ERA+ of over 100 four times.

In 2006, Lilly had 181ip, 109 ERA+, and 160 Ks. Meche had 186 ip, a 97 ERA+, and 156 Ks. Lilly had an ERA+ over 100 3 times; Meche had done it twice, and not since 2000 (and even then just in 85 innings) You can make the case for Lilly if you want to ascribe higher value to his being left-handed, but I don't see any way Meche was a better pitcher than Burnett.

Ted and Meche were both less of an injury risk than Burnett was when entering free agency

Subjective, I suppose, but Burnett pitched 209 innings - the second time in his career he hit 200, something neither Meche nor Lilly have done. (Though Lilly had 197 in 2004) Burnett has The Elbow, but both Meche and Lilly have been hit by injuries every year.

PaulE-O - Tuesday, June 19 2007 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#170122) #

Burnett put those numbers up in the NL East

Ryan Day - Tuesday, June 19 2007 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#170123) #

1) ERA+ accounts for league/park differences.

2) Even if you want to ignore that, Meche was doing his thing in a pitcher's park in Seattle.

18 June 2007: Josh and Doc (a Tale of Two Pitchers) | 49 comments | Create New Account

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