Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - 13 June 2007: Batting Leadoff, Royce Clayton

13 June 2007: Batting Leadoff, Royce Clayton

OK, I had a nice piece all prepared on winning streaks, and the difficulty the Jays have in ever getting hot... and then I looked at last night's starting lineup.

It's not like Royce Clayton has never batted leadoff. He has done so in 223 major league games.

And when hitting out of the leadoff spot, he's batted .239 with a .290 OBP.

Well, maybe he owns Noah Lowry. Hmm, not really. He's 4-15 with a couple of walks. Not bad, I guess - it's a .353 OBP, and I actually take batter-pitcher matchups far, far more seriously than everyone else who reads or writes at this corner of the Net.

Mock me, I don't mind. I believe in them. (Me and Earl Weaver!)

Well, only three Blue Jays have ever had a hit off Lowry, and one of them is John Thomson. Phillips is 2-4 against him, and Troy Glaus, oddly enough, is 0-9.

Oh, who knows. Managers just play hunches sometimes. They do things that really can't be justified by anything we know and understand - but on the other hand, they also know all kinds of things that we don't know.

Never, never forget that part.

But it still seems kind of nuts to me.

I'm actually starting to think about hitting Aaron Hill in the leadoff spot, if only because I'm getting sick to death of all the double plays. I hate the damn things (and the early innings against Mr Lowry are not exactly improving my disposition). Hill is on pace, as they say, to hit into 33 DPs this season, which would obliterate the team record.

Nice game by Verlander last night, by the way.

Posted by Magpie on Wednesday, June 13 2007 @ 06:00 AM EDT.

13 June 2007: Batting Leadoff, Royce Clayton | 41 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

skippy23 - Wednesday, June 13 2007 @ 08:05 AM EDT (#169746) #

I guess that's one of the reasons that Jim Leyland batted Neifi Perez [terrible BA and terrible OB%] in the lead-off spot... a hunch.

Although he did admit that maybe that wasn't a great idea afterwards.

Sister - Wednesday, June 13 2007 @ 09:15 AM EDT (#169751) #

Burnett's injury was an entirely preventable event and I'm utterly confused and angry that it happened. I said more than once during Burnett's games last three games of 125, 117 and 130!! pitches, that this was going to catch up to him and low and behold, look where we are. The signs were all there: Burnett has an arm injury history; as well as a history of high pitch counts in past years; and was pushed back from and earlier start to give additional rest. These are the very reason why greater restraint should have been exercised by Gibbons, JP, and the Jays. Pathetic.

Four Seamer - Wednesday, June 13 2007 @ 09:54 AM EDT (#169754) #

If fingers are going to be pointed, it might be worth delving into Brad Arnsberg's role in allowing the elevated pitch counts. When the Marlins fired him and Jeff Torborg in 2003, part of the rationale given at the time was that the two of them overworked and abused a young pitching staff. Whether those reports were true, and if so, whether the concerns were valid is not for me to say, but it may be premature to single out Gibbons for responsibility, if indeed Burnett spends any time on the shelf.

Craig B - Wednesday, June 13 2007 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#169755) #

Regarding lineups and not scoring runs, it's hard to blame Gibbons or Clayton for last night's debacle. Clayton got on base twice; the middle of the order (3-4-5-6-7 hitters) went a combined 1-for-17 (thank you, Curtis Thigpen).

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 13 2007 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#169756) #

Overuse has not been a huge problem during the Arnsberg/Gibbons tenure, but you could definitely see this one coming.

I wonder when a team is going to say publicly that they think the notion of a starting pitcher "winning" a game is ridiculous and counterproductive as it leads to overuse (keeping a pitcher in the game to give him a chance "to get the win"). I am pretty sure that the game would have been turned over to the bullpen had the club led in Burnett's prior start after 6 innings.

The job of starting pitchers is to pitch well. Whether the team wins the game mostly (about 70% on average) results from the performance of the offence, the defence and the bullpen. The job of the pitching coach/manager is to maximize effectiveness and to minimize injury risk. Worrying about whether the starter has a chance at the W should not play a role.

Paul D - Wednesday, June 13 2007 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#169759) #

It looks like he's on his way out in Chicago. I don't remember these events before this year, does anyone else? If not, I think he'd look good on the Jays.

Michael Barrett

His salary is 4.5 million. My guess is that the Cubs could be convinced to pick part of it up. He's not having a great year this year (.306 OBP), but he's been better in the past, and would be a major improvement for the Jays. It would mean letting Fasano and Phillips go, sending Thigpen to the minors, and letting Zaun backup though.

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 13 2007 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#169760) #

I'd rather that the club went with a Zaun/Thigpen semi-platoon with Zaun playing 3/4 of the games, once Zaun is ready and one of Johnson or Overbay are back.

Wildrose - Wednesday, June 13 2007 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#169762) #

Gibby better be thumbing his rosary beads regarding the status of Burnett. Frankly there's no excuse this season to be riding him so hard. I've long supported this manager, but the Burnett injury could well be strike three.

John Northey - Wednesday, June 13 2007 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#169763) #

Well, Barrett's worst season was in 1990 with a 565 OPS - which is better than the Jays catching corp has done so far (559 OPS). He has a 730 this season, over a hundred points higher than Zaun (in 10 AB's we have Thigpen at 900). He had 820+ for 3 straight seasons before this one. Have him face lefties and a few righties while Zaun (once healthy) faces the rest of the righties. Send Fasano to AAA to teach the kid pitchers, Thigpen to AAA to keep working on his defense, and Phillips becomes the #3 catcher/backup at first.

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 13 2007 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#169764) #

Barrett's defence has fallen off a cliff in the last few years; his caught stealing rate is just a notch above Phillips. When you take the NL discount on his hitting, it is not clear that he is a better hitter than Thigpen (more power, but less ability to reach base). Thigpen has been praised for his pitcher handling skills; Barrett not so much. All in all, the overall Barrett package is none too impressive.

jgadfly - Wednesday, June 13 2007 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#169766) #

from the Jays site at MLB.com...06/12/2007 11:00 PM ET "Notes: Tallet getting it done... Southpaw's contribution often off the radar "-- By Jordan Bastian / MLB.com :

"The most amazing thing about him is he never would ask for a day off," Toronto pitching coach Brad Arnsberg said. "Even after one inning two nights ago and going two innings last night, he expects to pitch tonight. That's the kind of kid he is. That's probably the one thing that I respect the most."

An approach that might not be the most prudent ?

Also, a second article from the same site...

06/13/2007 3:00 AM ET Box > Burnett injured as Jays fall to Giants Shoulder strain sends right-hander to clubhouse in fifth By Jordan Bastian / MLB.com

Apparently Burnett injured his shoulder three pitches prior to being taken out. What was he trying to gain? Respect?

...and what were Huey, Duey and Louie thinking?

Jordan - Wednesday, June 13 2007 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#169769) #

Can anyone explain to me why the sight of AJ Burnett wincing and doubling over in pain wasn't enough to bring the manager, pitching coach and trainer to the mound, but three pitches later, they all ran out there like the fire brigade?

We'll wait to see what the official diagnosis is -- I'm not optimistic, frankly -- but I'm not inclined to blame pitch counts at this point. Pitchers get hurt, even a horse like Halladay. Burnett was never going to be a horse, and part of the risk/reward mechanism you get when you sign him is that he's going to be gimpier than an ace should be. And in any event, Burnett is not an efficient pitcher -- he'll usually need several pitches to get through any given batter, so you can't shut him down at an artificial number of pitches without greatly reducing his effectiveness. The only correlation I've seen between pitch count and injury is that pitchers are far more likely to get hurt when they're tired; Burnett was not tired when he came out of the game last night.

Regarding the offence, it's hardly difficult to see the problem: only two regulars slugging above .500 (the Matt Stairs Express should screech to a halt any time now) and two others above .400. That's five starters (Wells, Thomas, Lind, Clayton and the Catcher Du Jour) slugging below .400, four of whom also have OBPs below .300. Clayton was always going to be a black hole, and Lind is doing about as well as Rios did when he was called up prematurely in an emergency. So, to paraphrase the always-diplomatic GM, it's the 2-3-4 hitters who are killing the Jays.

Had one of Overbay, Wells or Thomas had an off-year, the Jays could have muddled through; had two of them scuffled badly, the team would have been in trouble; with all three of them on the skids, and no Reed Johnson at the top of the lineup, well ... you see the results. Wells and Overbay will both do better in the second half, but so far, I've seen nothing from Frank Thomas that makes me think there's anything left in that tank.

jmoney - Wednesday, June 13 2007 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#169770) #

Sorry I need to vent a little and nobody cares about the Bluejays in my social circles.

I can't remember the last time the Jays put together any kind of a winning streak. They have runs where they play good ball but its always "Win 2 lose 1"

They could have swept the first place Dodgers but they do alright taking two. Then they go and drop the series vs. the last place giants.

Players are keeling over left and right.

Vernon Wells has been awful with the bat. Frank Thomas has been awful with the bat. The team as a whole is painful to watch offensively.

I don't like this team, but looking at the talent I should like it. What's wrong? Sorry for the vent. I feel better now.

Chuck - Wednesday, June 13 2007 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#169771) #

When you take the NL discount on his hitting...

While it's widely accepted that the AL is the higher caliber league, does this extend to pitchers as well? Surely the stats for NL pitchers require a context adjustment above and beyond the pitcher/DH thing, namely due to AL hitters being better than their NL counterparts.

But does this work for the NL hitters as well? Is it generally accepted that NL pitching is weaker than AL pitching? I don't pretend to know, I've just never heard that before.

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 13 2007 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#169772) #

Here you go, Chuck.

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 13 2007 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#169773) #

It'd be nice to have an update on MGL's study for 2006. My guess is that it the longer term view (an AL pitching advantage of about 1/2 the size of its hitting advantage) would continue.

Dave Till - Wednesday, June 13 2007 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#169777) #

Burnett was worked too hard before he got hurt last night, but I'll bet he was probably insisting to all and sundry that he was just fine. And he wasn't showing signs of overuse during his high-pitch starts: in fact, he was busy blowing away hitter after hitter.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but overuse doesn't usually lead to injury this quickly, does it?

Having said that, Gibbons and Arnsberg deserve to be gonged if Burnett goes down for the season. (And shoulder injuries are nasty things: ask Mike Sirotka, for example.)

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 13 2007 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#169778) #

So, Jordan, you're doubting Thomas? <ducks>

Jordan - Wednesday, June 13 2007 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#169779) #

To be Frank, yes.

Justin (T-Birds) - Wednesday, June 13 2007 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#169781) #

I'd be surprised if it is actually a shoulder injury. While I have no qualifactions whatsoever, my first thought was that it was an elbow problem, based on how he held his arm after the strikeout pitch (to Klesko?). It was practically an identical reaction to that of last spring. If I knew something was wrong watching on TV, how could they not immediately go out to check on him (as Jordan mentioned). Based on Burnett's personal history and the way injuries have been disclosed lately, I'm skeptical.

ayjackson - Wednesday, June 13 2007 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#169784) #

Correct me if I'm wrong, but overuse doesn't usually lead to injury this quickly, does it?

Well his fastball was sitting at 93-94 mph last night and that had me worried that his arm hadn't fully recovered from his last start. Everytime I've seen him pitch in the past month or so, his fastball sat at 97-98. So if is possible that his arm hadn't fully rested from his last start, which may have made his joints vulnerable to over-exertion on a pitch.

He threw two changeups after the injury, which didn't seem to bother him as much, but it was a curve that he hurt himself on and a curve that was his final pitch.

Ron - Wednesday, June 13 2007 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#169785) #

.... Must not comment on AJ's injury................

I'm sort of glad the Jays were elminated from playoff contention in early May because if they were still in it, last night's game might have lead to the demise of my tv.

Why in the world is Royce Clayton leading off? In the 5th inning, why in the world would the Jays call for a hit and run with AJ at the plate (2-1 count, no outs) and Phillips at 1st base? AJ missed the sign and even though Molina's throw to 2nd was off by about 200 feet, Phillips was still easily tagged out.

I'm pulling for Reed Johnson to make it back quickly because I'm sick of seeing Vernon Wells out there everyday. The 126 million dollar man should be benched.
On the bright side, the Jays pen is amazing. Easily one of the best in the AL.

ayjackson - Wednesday, June 13 2007 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#169786) #

While I have no qualifactions whatsoever, my first thought was that it was an elbow problem, based on how he held his arm after the strikeout pitch (to Klesko?).

My Nil-qualified analysis was that he was indeed favouring his shoulder and not his elbow.

If it was a tired-arm injury, it speaks well to the strength of the new Unlar Ligament that the shoulder strained and not the elbow.

tstaddon - Wednesday, June 13 2007 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#169787) #

Far worse than batting Clayton in the leadoff spot for one game, but not quite as terrible as Burnett's pitch counts was Gibbons' decision to pinch hit Thomas for Phillips in the 7th inning and then NOT leave him in the game. If I may:

Thomas is retired as part of the 0/3 pinch-hit seventh. Stairs moves into left for Lind; Fasano replaces Phillips behind the plate; Zaun and Thomas are burned for the game. At this point, you're heading into the bottom of the 7th. Is it really unreasonable to ask Frank Thomas to play 2+ innings at first base, while Thigpen catches? Please. Even if you instruct Thomas to stand on the base, so as not to injure himself, it's an improvement over slotting Fasano behind the plate.

Fast forward to the ninth. Thigpen makes it to second after a single and a wild pitch. And who's up? Fasano. And you can't pinch hit because Clark needs to be held back with the pitcher due next. Now, Thomas is hardly a sure thing to cash anything in offensively these days, but I'd certainly feel better with him batting in that spot than Sal. I'm a Gibbons supporter for the most part, but come on, man. You've bucked convention when it doesn't make sense (Glaus at shortstop, Burnett throwing 130 pitches), why not do it when logic demands it?

John Northey - Wednesday, June 13 2007 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#169788) #

Well, with AJ probably gone for awhile (if not now, then after another start) who gets put into the rotation next?

Ohka is gone, Chacin on the shelf, Litsch in the minors, Zambrano (8.17 ERA in the minors) in the minors for awhile still (hopefully), Thomson (3.80 over 8 starts) isn't too bad an option I guess.

Guys we haven't seen yet in the minors...
AAA
Michael McDonald has a 3.76 ERA between AA/AAA but 24-36 BB-SO ratio over 77 IP. The other AAA starters are 5+ in ERA.

AA
Kyle Yates in AA has a 3.25 ERA but 22 BB vs 43 K in 61 IP isn't impressive.

Why have I got a sinking feeling we are going to see Brian Tallet get a start? Just something about the way he has been used makes me think Gibbons will do something like that.

Justin (T-Birds) - Wednesday, June 13 2007 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#169789) #

As I said, I'm just speculating about the injury being related to his elbow, and I could be way off-base. The official word is a fatigued arm and a shoulder strain; I just don't see how a tired shoulder is congruent with being keeled over in pain like that. Plus the pain was right after a curve ball, again related to the elbow.

Chuck - Wednesday, June 13 2007 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#169791) #

Here you go, Chuck.

Thanks for the link. From MGL's conclusions:

"[...] the overall or average talent in the AL is likely much better than that in the NL. However, it appears that most or all of that advantage is in the offense and that the quality of pitching is roughly equivalent in both leagues"

And that was before Ted the Tease blew into the Windy City!

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 13 2007 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#169793) #

If another starter is needed, I would think that the realistic options would be John Thomson and Casey Janssen (with League coming up).

China fan - Wednesday, June 13 2007 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#169794) #

Latest news: Fasano has been sent back to Syracuse, Lee Gronkiewicz has been promoted to Toronto, and Josh Towers will get the start instead of Burnett on Sunday against the Nationals. Also, Vernon Wells is absent from today's lineup against the Giants. Is a Message being Sent??

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/baseball

Ryan Day - Wednesday, June 13 2007 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#169796) #

What are they going to do with only three catchers? We're only a pinch-hit and two serious late-innining injuries away from having John McDonald catch!

CaramonLS - Wednesday, June 13 2007 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#169797) #

Wow, I never actually expected them to actually FREE GRONK.

I'm really happy though, this guy deserves a chance - he has nothing left to prove at the minor league level.

Kieran - Wednesday, June 13 2007 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#169798) #

Forget ROYCE CLAYTON, leadoff man...time for a new thread:

HOWIE CLARK, leadoff man AND firstbaseman!

Wow.

greenfrog - Wednesday, June 13 2007 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#169800) #

Gleeman (as usual) intelligently discusses the Burnett injury:

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/features/column.aspx?sport=MLB&columnid=13&articleid=28363

david wang - Wednesday, June 13 2007 @ 07:18 PM EDT (#169805) #

The Jays should be batting Wells way down in the lineup. Keeping a guy with a 700 OPS in the 3 slot is just bad managing. Put Rios or Hill there, never start Phillips ever again, and HOWIE CLARK LEADOFF HITTER FOREVER.

Is Zaun still hurt, and is that why he's not starting at Catcher since coming back?

Dez - Wednesday, June 13 2007 @ 08:22 PM EDT (#169807) #

Gleeman lists 110 pitch starts and raises flags. But Burnett is not an efficient pitcher, with his high strike out and walk totals. If you were to limit his pitchcount to 100, say, because of his injury history, you end up with a 5-6 inning pitcher with a 4+ ERA. Would that be worth 55 million dollars? I don't think so.

scottt - Wednesday, June 13 2007 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#169810) #

The Jays currently have one of the best bullpen in the AL. Does it really matter if the starter goes 5 or 7 innings?

I think not. The middle relievers barely pitch at all.

Dr. Zarco - Wednesday, June 13 2007 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#169811) #

Well the news doesn't sound too bad for Burnett and the Jays. The MLB.com article says he'll miss only one start and likely not be put on the DL. That's far more optimistic than I was feeling last night watching him walk off the mound.

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070613&content_id=2023771&vkey=news_tor&fext=.jsp&c_id=tor

truefan - Friday, June 22 2007 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#170355) #

Clayton certainly appears to be turning to watch several grounders go by that others (viz McDonald or Hill) would make an effort on. With McDonald hitting about 60 points higher than Clayton, could someone remind me why Clayton continues to get more ABs?

truefan - Wednesday, June 27 2007 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#170742) #

Okay, over the past week, Gibbons has indeed started Johnny Mac every day. No need to explain why.

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