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The Blue Jays select Kevin Ahrens, 3B from Memorial HS with the 16th pick and JP Arencibia, C from Tennessee with the 21st pick in the first round.


Round 1, pick 16: Kevin Ahrens, 3B
Memorial HS, Houston, TX
6-2, 180 lbs, throws - right, bats - switch
DOB: 4/26/88

BA: Ahrens is a switch-hitter with power and a high school shortstop who will have to move to third base at the next level. More of a gap-to-gap hitter in the past, Ahrens has gotten stronger and started to turn on his power at the World Wood Bat Championship last fall. He's proficient from both sides of the plate, with a sound approach and little effort in his swing. The only thing lacking in Ahrens' game is speed, as he's a below-average runner. Though he still sees himself as a shortstop, he'll definitely have to shift to the hot corner, where his plus arm and soft hands will be assets.

MLB.com: There's a lot of upside in Ahrens' offense and while he'll likely end up at third base, he could possibly start as a shortstop because of his hands and arm and play there until he proves he can't stay at the position.

ESPN.com
: Ahrens' bat will take him as far as he can go. As a switch-hitter, he has a good approach at the plate. He's more powerful from the right side. He has a strong arm, but he projects more a third baseman.


Round 1, pick 21: JP Arencibia, C
U of Tennessee (stats)
6-1, 195 lbs, throws - right, bats - right
DOB: 1/5/86

Year AB Ave OBP SLG K/BB K%
2005 283 0.322 0.379 0.534 1.5 11.9%
2006 216 0.352 0.419 0.583 1.5 12.2%
2007 191 0.330 0.450 0.545 1.2 16.2%

BA: Arencibia pulled a muscle in his back and was forced out of the lineup until mid-March. Arencibia struggled offensively and behind the plate upon returning to the lineup. He's an aggressive hitter with plus power to all fields. Power has long been his calling card. His swing gets long and he tends to have too much of an uppercut stroke. The verdict is out on whether he'll stay behind the plate as a pro. His receiving skills are rudimentary at best, and his footwork prevents him from getting off better throws despite solid-average to plus arm strength.

MLB.com: Heading into the year, the Tennessee backstop was on the short list of top college catchers in the draft class. A nagging back injury has really hampered his production and given scouts some cause for concern. Still, he's got some track record and has performed very well for Team USA in the past.


Supplemental Round, pick 38: Brett Cecil, LHP
U of Maryland (stats)
6-2, 225 lbs
DOB: 7/2/86

Year Innings ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 H/9
2005 43 3.77 8.4 2.7 0.0 8.6
2006 58.1 4.78 8.4 3.1 0.5 8.5
2007 62.1 3.32 9.0 2.8 0.4 9.0

BA: Cecil's body, arm action and stuff have all improved significantly during his college career. While Cecil was used primarily in relief during college, he took a turn in the Terrapins rotation late this season and his future figures to be as a starter. He has four pitches, solid-average command and durability. His fastball has been up to 94 mph and sits near 91. His slider can touch 86 with good tilt and depth. His repertoire includes a a curveball, changeup and split-finger fastball, and the changeup has enough fade and deception to become a usable third offering, especially against righthanded hitters.

MLB.com: Cecil's slider alone will get him to the big leagues. If he can add a changeup to throw to righties, he could close. At the very least, he could become a very good left-handed setup man in a big-league bullpen. He got a start at the end of Maryland’s season and there are those who think he has the stuff to be in a rotation in the future.

ESPN.com: Two-and-a-half pitch closer package. Fastball is already plus, 91-93, with good boring action. Really runs it in hard to RHBs. Slider is already an out-pitch; sharp diving break in towards back feet of RHB. Curve is vertical; only uses vs LHBs. Some poor pitch selection. Great pickoff move.


Supplemental Round, pick 45: Justin Jackson, SS
TC Robertson HS
6-2, 175 lbs, throws - right; bats - right
DOB: 12/11/88

BA: Jackson a long-armed, wiry athlete with lots of holes in his swing, but shows a good feel for hitting as well as strike-zone discipline. If Jackson gets stronger and fills out, he could hit for above-average power, but that's a projection not every scout will make. He's a strong defender with above-average arm strength. His flash in the infield turns some scouts off, but he fields the ball out front and has outstanding actions up the middle. He's not a great runner, but shows average speed under way.

ESPN.com: Athletic HS SS who will be good ML SS. Shows ability to make all plays and with a plus arm and soft hands will make many outstanding plays. Has quick first step and good instincts on bases. Shows talent to center the ball despite having a slight loop in his swing. Lacks ideal strength to project to average ML hitter and will have to work diligently to improve strength and master a shorter stroke to hit .260-.270, 10-15 HR and be a regular. Worst-case scenario: backup defensive specialist. Best case: Adam Everett. Regular SS with emphasis on defense bottom-of-the order guy. Take chance on defensive tools, chance to hit.

MLB.com: Jackson has been on the radar screen for a long time, with scouts seeing him many times over the years as they came to TC Roberson High School to see Cameron Maybin. His defense has never been questioned, but his ability to hit at the next level has. He did finish the season strongly at the plate.


Supplemental Round, pick 56: Trystan Magnuson, RHP
U of Louisville (stats)
6-7, 210 lbs
DOB: 6/6/85

Year Innings ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 H/9
2004 3.1 13.50 8.7 2.9 2.9 20.3
2005 65.1 3.72 7.5 2.5 0.7 8.8
2006 53.2 3.69 5.4 2.5 0.3 7.6
2007 53 1.02 8.8 1.5 0.3 5.9

BA: Magnuson has slowly learned to control his thin, 6-foot-7 frame over the rubber and had been lights-out coming out of Louisville's bullpen this season. He did not allow an earned run in his first 23 innings and had 43 strikeouts and eight walks while posting a .165 opponent average in 44 innings during the regular season. He has a low-90s fastball and mid-80s slider that he has learned to keep down in the zone. He got ahead in the count with his fastball and used his slider as a chase pitch this spring. He'll have to improve its break in order for it to be as effective in pro ball.


Round 2, pick 85: John Tolisano, SS/2B
Estero High School (FL)
5-11, 180 lbs; throws - right; hits - switch
DOB: 10/7/88

BA: He was named Baseball America's top 14-year-old in 2003. Tolisano's performance fell off last summer, however, and he enters the draft as something of an enigma. He has a fair stroke from both sides of the plate, with average bat speed and solid-average power to all fields. He made better contact late in this season, but has struggled to square balls up enough that teams questions his ability to hit for average. He's a 50 runner on the 20-80 scale with flashy actions on defense. He has below-average hands and poor footwork, and some scouts believe he's best suited for the outfield.

MLB.com: The infielder has added a lot of bulk this season and it's allowed him to show some more power at the plate. The switch-hitter uses all fields well and has a good idea at the plate, though he is better from the left side. Defensively a shortstop right now, he profiles better as a solid all-around second baseman at the next level.

ESPN.com: Offensive type of player; line-drive hitter with modest power. Uses whole field. Needs to find a position; can't play SS, and it would take too much work to get him to be an adequate 2B. Has arm strength to move behind the plate. Below-average runner, so CF isn't an option, and lacks the HR power to play an outfield corner. Good approach at the plate. At the plate: stays back well, sees ball, gets hands in good position, except lead arm is a little too high. Has looseness in wrist and hands. Move to catcher may be his only chance to reach the big leagues.


Round 2, pick 88: Eric Eiland, CF
Lamar HS (TX)
6-2, 195 lbs; throws - left; hits - left
DOB: 9/16/88

BA: Billed as the best high school athlete to come out of Houston since Carl Crawford, Eiland didn't live up to that tag while battling left hamstring problems. The injury robbed him of his plus speed and restricted his spring. Eiland was raw at the plate to begin with, and it's likely that a club will draft him and evaluate him in summer ball before deciding whether to sign him. A reported $1 million price tag may mean that he winds up at Texas A&M.

MLB.com: Eiland is a toolsy high school outfielder who really put himself on the map at the Area Code Games last year. His performance this year hasn't necessarily lived up to that impression, but his skills are still undeniable. A hamstring injury hampered him for part of the season, but when healthy, Eiland has the ability to use his speed on both sides of the ball. He's got great bat speed, which could lead to more power.

ESPN.com: Could be tough sign as football recruit. Bat will carry him. Outstanding Area Code Games in '06 (couldn't get him out). Arm is lacking. LF only place to play; AL DH, maybe. Runs well. Defensive skills are playable. Arm only major problem at this time.


Round 3, pick 115: Alan Farina, RHP
Clemson University (stats)
5-11, 195 lbs
DOB: 8/9/86

Year Innings ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 H/9
2007 54.2 3.79 11.6 4.2 0.8 6.5

BA: Farina throws in the low-90s with a true fastball. He works from a high three-quarters arm slot, and his delivery has some effort. Farina's velocity and breaking ball have improved from last season, in part because he lengthened his stride and got better extension out front. He flashed a slider that has touched 86, sitting at 83-84 with hard tilt.

MLB.com: Farina has done a nice job as a middle reliever for Clemson, but there are those who think he might be able to start at the next level. That's because of a fastball with good velocity, and three other pitches that project to be average offerings if given the chance to develop them. He's aggressive and usually around the strike zone as well.


Round 4, pick 145: Brad Mills, LHP
U of Arizona (stats)
6-0, 185 lbs
DOB: 3/5/85

Year Innings ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 H/9
2004 9.2 4.66 6.8 12.7 0.0 9.8
2005 13.2 4.61 8.2 7.5 0.0 9.5
2006 82.1 4.70 9.0 4.5 0.3 10.5
2007 87.2 4.41 9.2 3.1 0.3 9.3

BA: Mills' repertoire is in the 87-90 mph range without touching 92 as he did last year. His breaking ball has improved, as he throws it with more power than he did before. Mills is still a semester short of graduation and likely will want to finish up, which could cost him instructional league and set his development back. He also needed a cortisone shot late in the spring to help a balky back that caused him to miss a pair of starts down the stretch, further clouding his draft status.

MLB.com: He has the chance to be a starter with an average fastball and above-average curve and changeup. He'd be considered much more highly if he had exhibited more consistent fastball command. At the very least, he could be an effective lefty bullpen type.


Round 5, pick 175: Marc Rzepczynski, LHP
UC Riverside (stats)
6-3, 205 lbs
DOB: 8/29/85

Year Innings ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 H/9
2004 40.1 4.46 8.3 3.8 0.7 11.4
2005 35 7.71 8.2 5.4 0.0 10.3
2006 52.1 4.47 8.5 4.3 0.5 11.1
2007 72.2 2.72 10.5 3.1 0.0 7.9

BA: Rzepczynski had elbow soreness early in the season but has shown plus stuff since then, making that less of a concern. He may have done enough to impress scouts last summer, when he was the No. 4 prospect in the West Coast Collegiate League, and again this spring, particularly in a three-hit shutout of Cal State Fullerton. When he's right, his fastball sits at 88-91 mph and touches 93, and he throws three other pitches for strikes: a low-80s power curveball, a slider that at times touches 84 mph, and a changeup he keeps down in the zone. He had not allowed a home run through 73 innings and was throwing more quality strikes than ever before, as command always had been a major problem. His four-pitch mix profiles him as a middle-of-the-rotation starter.

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That concludes the draft for today. The Jays will pick round 6-50 tomorrow (or quit when they're tired).
Blue Jays 2007 Draft - Day One | 71 comments | Create New Account
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HippyGilmore - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#169457) #
Porcello would've been really nice, but barring that I'm happy, if not overwhelmed, with these picks. Both address a need.
Jim - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#169463) #

You left out the best part of the MLB.com comment on Arencibia.

He's no longer in the first-round mix, but still should go in the first few rounds.

 

Jim - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#169464) #
Future draft studies are going give some odd results with how far Boras' clients are falling.   Quite a tasty sandwich round.
Ron - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#169465) #
2005: Cameron Maybin
2006: Andrew Miller
2007: Rick Porcello

The Tigers got all 3 of these players without having a top 5 pick in any of those years. I'm impressed.

I'm sure some new baseball fans are wondering why don't the draft selections go by talent alone. Scott Boras has to be the most powerful agent in sports.

King Ryan - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#169466) #
Ron, I'm sorry but I just have to ask: Is Scott Boras your brother or your uncle or something?

I'm just curious.

King Ryan - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#169468) #
I'm just teasing of course.

As for the draft, I enjoyed watching it this year for the first time ever.  Next year maybe I'll be able to watch on TV instead of on the computer? I mean I can't imagine that Canadian Ladies 5-pin bowling really gets that much ratings...

I think whenever you see a player who is highly-touted fall because of money, you hope that your team rolls the dice, but we all knew it wasn't going to happen.  My sentiments towards the Jays choices are essentially the same as HappyGilmore.  It looks like the Jays really want to get more power in the system almost regardless of all else. 

Sidenote: What is up with Thursday Jays games never being televised?

Manhattan Mike - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#169471) #
MLB.com: Heading into the year, the Tennessee backstop was on the short list of top college catchers in the draft class. A nagging back injury has really hampered his production and given scouts some cause for concern. Still, he's got some track record and has performed very well for Team USA in the past.

You forgot the most damning part of the vignette - "He's no longer in the first-round mix, but still should go in the first few rounds."

I wish JP Arencibia and Kevin Ahrens all the best. I really do. I can't wait to see them succeed at the Rogers Centre for years to come.

But, to me, that means that the team drafted a guy who may catch (but may not) that the probably could have selected with a supplemental pick. Seems that all this guy had going for him was that he shares initials with our GM (whom I generally think is doing an excellent job and told him as much a few months ago).

These guys were selected over the #2 pitcher in the draft, Rick Porcello, who went to a team in a city (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detroit,_Michigan with fewer people (4.4 million) living in its metro area than Toronto's (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toronto) 5.5 million and a MUCH weaker economy. Home prices are plummeting in Detroit as the auto industry goes through the toughest time in its history, with massive layoffs and little hope.  Yet the Tigers have the dough to sign a guy that the Jays do not for some reason.

Rick Porcello was drafted by a team that only had about 4,000 more people attend per game than the Jays, despite the ballpark being a heck of a lot newer (no comments about nicer, I happen to be alone in liking the Dome) with fewer tourists and a World Series-bound lineup. In 2005 and 2004, the Tigers had almost an identical number of fans attend its games and in 2003, the Jays outdrew the Tigers.

So I am hard pressed to understand why it is the case that the Jays passed over a pitching prospect that is commonly being referred to as the best right-handed pitching prospect out of high school since Josh Beckett.

Is it money? Did the Jays assume that Porcello wanted too much? If so, how much did he want? Did JP and his crew look into this? Because let's say, for argument's sake, that Porcello wanted $2.5 million more than the Jays will ultimately pay Arencibia (alternatively, read this as being a bench player more than what the Jays will pay their draftees). Is the amount of money that a bench player gets worth passing up a guy who is being referred to as a sure-thing top-end starter for a guy who wasn't expected to go in the first round? I certainly don't think so!

Is it not wanting to be perceived as wasting a pick on a guy that won't sign? How so? The Jays would draft 16th or 17th next year if they drafted a guy that didn't sign. No harm, no foul. And the Jays would likely still have gotten their man Arencibia with the supplemental pick.

Is it not wanting to deal with Scott Boras? Well, if this is the case, then heads need rolling. Because if the Jays aren't getting an opportunity to have the best players in their lineup because management doesn't want to deal with a ball-buster of an agent, something ain't right.

Bottom line: the Jays had absolutely no downside in taking Porcello. If not at #16, then at #21. The fact that the Tigers, a team in a smaller, poorer market, drafted him and the Blue Jays did not speaks to the reason why, if a Torontonian wanted to catch a World Series game live this past autumn, a plane/train was needed instead of a subway ride to Union Station.  Why the Tigers have the sickest rotation in baseball and Toronto has a losing record.

Could it be worse? Of course. Porcello could have gone to the Yankees, which would have left me fuming even harder that something needs to be done in the way the draft and the post-draft signing period is handled. But this is pretty darn bad. Almost as bad as the Russ Adams situation (I don't know about you but I'd rather have a 1-2-3 of Halladay/Kazmir or Hamels/Burnett instead of a 1-2-3 of Halladay/Burnett/McGowan and Russ Adams learning how to throw the ball from second to first in Syracuse).
Manhattan Mike - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#169472) #
I forgot one more comparison in my little ditty between Toronto and Detroit.

I'm not sure how many people see Tigers game but I have a strong feeling that they aint televised nationally, reaching a potential audience north of 30 million like Toronto's. That's gotta count for something.

Taking a risk with $2 million is just as dangerous as a risk with $5 million.

Pistol - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#169474) #
Heh, Cecil went at 38 just like in the Sickels Mock Draft!
Shak - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#169480) #
Tystan Magnuson is from Vancouver BC.
Pistol - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#169481) #
For those of you that want players with upside, and who can stick at SS, I think you got it with Jackson.  He sounds like a somewhat raw, but talented player.  I know in the Sickels mock draft the Phillies took him in the first round and that guy was talking him up good.

Magnuson feels like a pick designed to save money as he's a senior college reliever.  He had great numbers this year and is huge at 6-7, but BA had him ranked 199 overall.
Marc Hulet - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#169483) #
Magnuson is a huge money saving pick. He was a fifth year senior(!) and could have been signed for peanuts by any team before the draft if his team's playoffs had ended in time. He probably would have been available in the seventh round...
Pistol - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 06:27 PM EDT (#169484) #
As the second round begins there's a few pitchers I like - Jordan Zimmerman, Josh Fields, and David Newman.

It's pretty lean on the hitting side among college players unless the Jays go with a 2B like Sogard or Ferris.

Pistol - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 06:29 PM EDT (#169485) #
and apparently I'm not the only one - Fields and Zimmerman went in the first 5 picks of the round.
parrot11 - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#169486) #
Honestly, I'm not very impressed by this draft. It seems alittle like the same old. Ahrens is OK (would have preferred Beavan). I don't like the Cecil pick and our last pick of the supplemental round. I think that the Nationals made out like bandits. Very toolsy draft.
ChicagoJaysFan - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#169487) #
It seems alittle like the same old.

I'm curious what you mean by this.  We drafted two high schoolers in our first 4 picks (all before the second round).  That's pretty new for this Jays regime.
Mark - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#169488) #
I like the draft a lot. A perfect mix of High School and College right now. Magnuson was a late comer to baseball and got on the team as a walk on. He's a 6'7 power arm that has few miles on it. He can be a real sleeper.
Pistol - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#169489) #
Alan Matthews early review of the Jays draft.
greenfrog - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#169490) #

Alan Mathews of BA likes the Jays' early picks: "The Blue Jays have mixed and matched their picks extremely well so far".

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/

I find it weird that teams avoid choosing the top players because of cost. Isn't the draft supposed to be something of an equalizer among the have and have-not teams?

ChicagoJaysFan - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#169491) #
I find it weird that teams avoid choosing the top players because of cost. Isn't the draft supposed to be something of an equalizer among the have and have-not teams?

I think drafts in general are more about keeping costs down than they are about balancing the playing field.  It's pretty much a North American sport invention and, regardless of what is/was said publicly, I think the main driver was to get teams out of the development process (hockey) and to avoid bidding over amateurs turning pro (baseball/football).  Both of those processes are arguably more expensive than signing players out of the draft (and definitely from a human capital standpoint, distract the team focused on what it should be doing) and I think that's the main reason we see a draft versus youth leagues (a la most European soccer leagues).

Personally, I'd like them to just do away with the draft (I'm not a fan of slavery) and have free agency from the time that players want to exit school, but that's a long debate that will be off topic from this thread.
westcoast dude - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 07:06 PM EDT (#169492) #
Trystan Magnuson was an inspired pick. His uncle, the late Keith Magnuson, played in the NHL. He really thrived at Louisville under Dan McDonnell, who calls him "very mature and consistent in his work ethic. He doesn't leave any stone unturned in going about his business."  With a degree in Mechanical Engineering and his only scholarship offer one from Kentucky to play the violin, Trystan Magnuson seems to be from a part of the gene pool I can only dream about. He's a late bloomer.  We have a bingo.
Sister - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 07:09 PM EDT (#169493) #
Eiland and Tolisano are excellent 2nd round picks.
CeeBee - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#169494) #
I'm happy with the mix of HS and College. Seems to me JP has balanced things out between pitching, offence and high ceiling and also taken a long shot on Magnuson so it should be quite interesting following Auburn and the GCL team this summer.
RhyZa - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 07:51 PM EDT (#169495) #
I like the draft so far. Arencibia seems like a bit of a reach but Cecil and Jackson to follow were very good picks. I know it's frustrating not to draft Porcello (like every other team that passed including the Yanks), but having as many picks that we do, I don't think it was feasible for this draft.
Gerry - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 07:52 PM EDT (#169496) #
So far all the hitters, other than the catcher Arencibia, have been high schoolers.  All the pitchers have been college players, mostly juniors.
Pistol - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#169497) #
The Jays just took Brad Mills for a 2nd straight year.

Not the B Mills I was hoping for!
Ron - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#169500) #
Ron, I'm sorry but I just have to ask: Is Scott Boras your brother or your uncle or something?

He's my agent. Just kidding.

The Jays have had a pretty solid draft so far. A nice mix of HS and College players. Poor Peter Gammons was fumbling his words after the Jays made their selections. It was like he knew he had to fill airtime with some comments but he had nothing to say.
Pistol - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#169501) #
I read in a couple places that the Jays seem to focus more on LH pitchers than other teams.  In their 10 picks today they took 3.

Rzepczynski is the latest LHP, and is another senior pick.  He looks to be pretty good value at this point.

RhyZa - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#169502) #
We did a lot of good things today.  I like the Ahrens, Jackson, Tolisano and Eiland selections. 

I just hope it isn't remembered for the wrong reasons, hopefully JP's namesake isn't as much of a blunder as it sounds like.   Magnuson seems like another reach as wel.
slitheringslider - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#169503) #
In addition to Porcello, I kind of wish the Jays picked Matt Harvey with one of their early picks. Harvey was projected to be a first round pick but fell to the fourth round due to Boras reasons.

Overall, I thought it was a pretty good draft for the Jays, a good mix of safe picks and high ceiling players.

Jim - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 10:55 PM EDT (#169505) #
it's frustrating not to draft Porcello (like every other team that passed including the Yanks)

The Yankees didn't pass or Porcello nor do I think they would have if they had gotten a chance to pick him.

You can add me to the list of those who wanted Porcello at 21.  I think the new rules will give the teams a lot more leverage.  Worst case scenario is the 22nd pick in the draft next year and some scorn from Czar Bud.  I'd have taken my chances.

I haven't had a chance to sit down and really study things but my first reaction is that except for Arencibia I think I like what they did.
Thomas - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 11:04 PM EDT (#169507) #
In addition to Porcello, I kind of wish the Jays picked Matt Harvey with one of their early picks. Harvey was projected to be a first round pick but fell to the fourth round due to Boras reasons.

Signing one of these guys would be difficult enough. The Jays would have no realistic chance (given their budget) of signing both. One can make a strong argument that they should have gambled with Porcello at 21 instead of taking Arebencia and one can make a strong argument that even though the worst case scenario would have been the 22nd pick next year, the Jays would be better off devoting their money and energy elsewhere. However, drafting Harvey on top of that would have just been a waste of a pick.
jgadfly - Friday, June 08 2007 @ 12:14 AM EDT (#169511) #

Early Look at College Hitters Posted by Pistol on Tuesday, December 19 2006 @ 08:00 AM EST

JP Arencibia, C, Tennessee

Year ABs Ave OBP SLG K/BB K% 2006 216 0.352 0.419 0.583 1.5 12.2% 2005 283 0.322 0.379 0.534 1.5 11.9%

I do see good things in Arencibia's numbers however. The line above is obviously strong, especially for a catcher. In addition, Arencibia plays in a pitcher's park in a tough league (SEC) so you can mentally adjust those numbers up a bit. He could very well be one of the Jays targets with their first pick and I'm on the bandwagon.


Does anyone know about Arenciba's defence?     A question posed by Mike Green and Pistol's answer .

He threw out 10 of 50 base stealers last year, so perhaps he's not going to be a catcher in the future.  If he had a strong defensive reputation I imagine he'd be ranked at the top of the draft.

"so perhaps he's not going to be a catcher in the future"... not really words that I want to see on the same report with "back problems"...The J's are taking a flyer on this guy with the hopes that his upside is what ... a slow footed DH who can fill in at backup catcher. They seem to be building a team of Bengie Molina prototypes. Their best hitting prospects are station to station hitters. Lind...1B/DH ; Snider...1B/DH ; Ahrens ...3B (and what of the Great Balbino)... a bunch of power bats but have people forgot how Rickey Henderson would take over game when he got on base. Drafting is a crapshoot at best but why overdraft for mediocrity with medical problems when you could pick up a Top 5 rated Talent at 21 with Porcello. Could Porcello  be any worse than Ricky Romero (a Top 20 Talent chosen 6th) ? How does Ahrens look in comparison to Adams' and Hill's bios from their respective draft days ?

Sister - Friday, June 08 2007 @ 08:36 AM EDT (#169519) #
Marc Rzepczynski does not seem to be that great a pick to me. His numbers, while great this past season, suggest someone who has simply adjusted to a league he has been in for four years, rather than someone with outstanding stuff. I suppose it is just a personal preference to avoid players who have shown average or poor numbers with the exception of one year. Marc Rzepczynski falls into that category. Why not grab someone like Carpenter or Cole St. Claire who are still on the board? Overall, not a bad draft. As others have said, the HS talent looks good, as does Cecil. The remaining college types seem like reaches and our second first rounder, Arencibia, seems like a wasted pick (particularly if he can't catch).
Manhattan Mike - Friday, June 08 2007 @ 09:18 AM EDT (#169525) #

"Because of signability, the Tigers had no idea whether he'd fall their way or not, even though they'd been scouting him heavily since last summer. They had a list prepared with several guys they could choose depending on how the teams above them selected. (Tigers scouting director David) Chadd said he didn't have an idea about their chances with Porcello until he got past the 21st pick. "

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070607&content_id=2011160&vkey=draft2007&fext=.jsp

I wonder what Chadd meant by this - perhaps there was some thought among the other organizations that the Jays would use one of their picks on Porcello.

I know it's a fluff piece but I can't help wondering "what if" - and it hasn't even been a full day since the draft. 

Pistol - Friday, June 08 2007 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#169526) #
Why not grab someone like Carpenter or Cole St. Clair who are still on the board?

The same reason no other team is taking them - money.  There's a bunch of players in that boat as outline here.
Ryan Day - Friday, June 08 2007 @ 09:29 AM EDT (#169529) #

You can certainly make a good case for taking a chance on Porcello, but it's not just about the Jays. Plenty of teams passed on him, and many of them have pretty well-respected GMs. Everyone raves about the Indians, but they didn't take him. Ditto the Dodgers, who certainly aren't afraid of the mythical Boras Beast.

Ryan Day - Friday, June 08 2007 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#169533) #

 They seem to be building a team of Bengie Molina prototypes. Their best hitting prospects are station to station hitters. Lind...1B/DH ; Snider...1B/DH ; Ahrens ...3B

Lind is pretty slow, and a bad baserunner to boot, but Snider's got some speed; he might not be fast, but he can run, as evidenced by 4 triples and three steals this year.  And the scouting reports say Ahrens is just a bit below average - bringing up Bengie Molina when the guy is still playing shortstop seems a bit extreme. As far as baserunning goes, I'd be happy with a team full of guys like Eric Hinske: Not going to set fire to the baselines, but enough speed to take some extra bases and enough smarts to know when.

Ricciardi also took Jackson and Eiland, who can both run.

Glevin - Friday, June 08 2007 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#169538) #
I think it's impossible to judge a MLB draft until years later. That said, it is fun to do so and you can get some impressions. It's difficult not to get some top prospects with the picks the Jays had and they have indeed restocked their system. I don't understand the Arencibia pick though. The Jays have Lind and Snyder already as probable DH types. I also don't understand how GMs are willing to give say 8 million/year to Jeff Weaver, will pass on a top talent to save even less than that. By far the best way to build a team is through the draft and if the Jays ever want to compete in the AL East, they are going to need some top-class...superstar even, young players coming through and not by spending million to attract  good older free agent. To get those top-class young players, the Jays will have to spend to get them.
Jdog - Friday, June 08 2007 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#169542) #
Have you not noticed Lind playing Left field........If you are going to call him a probable DH type you might as well throw half the LF's in the league into the probable DH role.  Lind is a LF he's not great but he is easily passable and will only get better.  I'm with JP on this, look for good bats, if they can hit they will be valuable whether they stick at a position or move to DH.
Ryan Day - Friday, June 08 2007 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#169546) #

Lind is probably okay for a few years in the outfield, but I'd move him to first or DH once an opening comes up.

Snider, on the other hand, should be able to stay in the outfield, left field at least, according to everything I've read. I wouldn't worry about him needing to DH any time soon.

Manhattan Mike - Friday, June 08 2007 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#169548) #

"Ditto the Dodgers, who certainly aren't afraid of the mythical Boras Beast."

I agree - I was a bit puzzled that the Dodgers, who aren't lacking cash or a fan base, didn't take Porcello.  But bear in mind that the Dodgers didn't sign Hochevar with their top pick in the 2005 draft so if they picked Porcello and didn't sign him, it would make two of three recent year in which the Dodgers' top pick didn't sign. Perhaps management could not take that risk, especially with the last top pick that they had being a high school pitcher (in 2006).

And the Indians and others were in a different boat than the Jays as well, with only one pick. Better examples would be Texas or San Francisco.

Just using a relatively high pick on yet another catcher who seems not to have much of an arm and is being talked about as having to have to move into another position seems tired at this point, given that JP seems to have done this every year hes been drafting. I'd have shot for the moon and drafted Porcello - the kid isn't going to chance millions of dollars and go to college - he wants to get a deal done.

Ryan Day - Friday, June 08 2007 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#169550) #
According to BA, Arencibia's arm is pretty good, but he has poor footwork. That leaves room for improvement.
Craig B - Friday, June 08 2007 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#169558) #
Does anyone who had a negative opinion of the Jays' first-day picks want to take on the assertions from around the baseball media that the Jays had an excellent draft yesterday?  I'd be curious to hear your thoughts.
Glevin - Friday, June 08 2007 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#169563) #

goog"Does anyone who had a negative opinion of the Jays' first-day picks want to take on the assertions from around the baseball media that the Jays had an excellent draft yesterday?  I'd be curious to hear your thoughts."

As I have said before, I don't think you can judge baseball drafts until years down the road. (Unlike football and basketball where the payoff is much more immediate). Apart from the Arencibia pick which I think was odd, I think the draft seems fine. It would be virtually impossible not to have an excellent draft with the number of high picks the Jays had.  7 picks in the top 2 rounds should give you a fabulous draft no matter what.

MatO - Friday, June 08 2007 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#169566) #

7 picks in the top 2 rounds should give you a fabulous draft no matter what.

Funny you should say that.  The last time the Jays had this many picks was in 1993 when they had 8 picks in the first 3 rounds ( and the sandwich round was nowhere near as large).  The first pick was Chris Carpenter (became a star 11 years after being chosen) and the other 7 I don't think even played a game in the majors.

MatO - Friday, June 08 2007 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#169567) #
Amend that.  Mark Lukasiewicz and Mike Romano had cups of coffee in the majors (not with the Jays).
Ryan Day - Friday, June 08 2007 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#169586) #
Promising blurb from the BA chat:

John Manuel: Our reports on Arencibia are better than that; people loved him last summer with Team USA. He has had back issues; that's a concern, no doubt. But people love the bat, big righthanded power, he might have been a bit of a reach at 21 but not too significant in my opinion.



jgadfly - Saturday, June 09 2007 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#169618) #
Craig B..."Does anyone who had a negative opinion of the Jays' first-day picks want to take on the assertions from around the baseball media that the Jays had an excellent draft yesterday?  I'd be curious to hear your thoughts."...                    I'll attempt. I'll also preface my attempt by saying I'm a little more ameneable to the Jays'  first two picks when I heard that they were baseball "rats" (meaning that they love baseball and are rugged physical guys who play hard). Drafting with this criterion is always a plus. Also the reports that Arencebia does indeed have a strong arm  and the clarification of his medical report (upper buttocks vs lower back) is somewhat more reassuring than Pistol's 10 for 50 "maybe he won't be a catcher" estimation from last December's Draft Report.                My thoughts, perhaps more than somewhat spurious, are that the "baseball media" serve their support base (the American baseball fan) with partisan fervour at the expense of the Jays and their fan base. The Jay reportage is minimal and in the main an afterthought. Insights into all things Blue Jay really aren't recognized with the same sense of importance. Even the local Toronto print and voice media (with some exceptions) aren't all that informative. This site's success with fans stems from their search for and recognition of the quality of opinion, thought and information regarding the Jays.               The "baseball media"'s belief that "the Jays had an excellent draft" stems from the balance chosen in the first four rounds of HS, College, hitters and pitchers and not necessarily support for their two first round selections. Many thought that the Jays had overdrafted on both counts. Its all just speculation but to what degree is it informed. I believe that the "experts'" just gave a cursuary look at the Jays overall balance and pronounced it as good without any real investigative and comparative analysis (such as who was also available at their time of selection).         On the selection of Ahrens. I'm not sure where he was on the Jay wish list but I get a sense that he may not have been even in their top three. I'm pretty sure that Arencebia was a lock as their number 1 for their second selection and that he was designated as their high risk selection after choosing a very low risk high school bat. So they didn't adjust and they stuck to their plan. So it comes down to who should they pick when who they thought would be there wasn't. Best talent available... probably Porcello... drawbacks - high school pitcher/ Boras client ... does one really need the worry??? Taking a pitcher, highschool or college, in the first round is always a crap shoot (eg. Romero, Jackson, Purcey) but it isn't very often that the Jays have the chance to select a Top 5 talent with a very legit upside, albeit with a very high risk attached. Their inability to deviate from their scripted path and adapt to what was facing them at the first selection prevented them from choosing the better quality prospect.             Another drawback to Ahrens' selection is the way that it harkens back to the selections of Adams  and Hill. The Jays already had two quality prospects in their system at short and second in Lopez and Hudson. So they take someone with a weak arm and a projection as a secondbaseman and make him into their shortstop. The following year they again draft a ss but with a strong arm and make him into a second baseman. The similarity here is that their most promising infield prospect is the projected 3rdbaseman Balbino Fuenmayor. In closing i'd like to say I'm happy with Arrencibia and not so much with Ahrens. I wish we had Porcello and I hope they prove me wrong.
Brian B. - Saturday, June 09 2007 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#169625) #

Has anyone else read this assessment of Justin James by Jerry Ford over at PGCrosscheckers:

"Justin Jackson SS from Ashville, NC.  I keep reading rumors that his bat is questionable.  I hear rumors he might have trouble fielding!  And lately I’ve even seen rumors questioning if he can run well enough!  Can I please go on record as saying… I completely disagree with all of the above rumors. 

Jackson is a player we have seen play maybe 50 or more games.  We have seen him at our showcases and tournaments playing with and against many of the top players in the USA, Canada and Latin America.  Most often the only real question mark involves his hitting potential.  But I not only think Justin Jackson will hit, but he will hit for power!  Why?  Because we have seen it!  All Justin Jackson needs is to get stronger!  Strength will turn him into a monster with the bat." - there's more:

 http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/draft/2007/notebooks/jerryford/notebook_52307.aspx

Brian B. - Saturday, June 09 2007 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#169626) #
Uh, I meant Justin Jackson.
King Ryan - Saturday, June 09 2007 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#169627) #
Funny you should say that.  The last time the Jays had this many picks was in 1993 when they had 8 picks in the first 3 rounds ( and the sandwich round was nowhere near as large).  The first pick was Chris Carpenter (became a star 11 years after being chosen) and the other 7 I don't think even played a game in the majors.

BB-Ref now has a fully-featured draft thing-a-ma-jig that makes answering questions like this a breeze:

1993 Jays draft.

So there were two other players that did play a game in the majors, but not much more than a game. At least that draft produced more than their 1980 draft
John Northey - Saturday, June 09 2007 @ 10:57 PM EDT (#169628) #
Wow, 1980 was a total dud.
Checking June drafts for guys making the majors (notables listed as well)...
1977 - 2 - Barfield & Ainge
1978 - 4 - Moseby & Stieb
1979 - 4
1980 - 0
1981 - 5 - Cerutti
1982 - 9 - David Wells, Key, Borders (infamous draft of Augie Schmidt over Dwight Gooden)
1983 - 6 - Glenallen Hill
1984 - 5 - Greg Myers
1985 - 5 - Jim Abbott (didn't sign so really shouldn't count)
1986 - 11 - Pat Hentgen
1987 - 12 - Mike Timlin, Derek Bell
1988 - 12 - Ed Sprague, Dave Weathers, Mike Matheny (didn't sign), Scott Erickson (didn't sign)
1989 - 8 - John Olerud, Jeff Hammonds (didn't sign), Jeff Kent, Aaron Small
1990 - 10 - Karsay
1991 - 12 - Shawn Green, Chris Stynes, Alex Gonzalez
1992 - 5 - Shannon Stewart, Tim Crabtree
1993 - 6 - Chris Carpenter
1994 - 8 - Chris Woodward
----end of Pat Gillick era, start of Gord Ash----
1995 - 4 - Halladay, Craig Wilson, Ryan Freel (low number, high quality)
1996 - 8 - Orlando Hudson (didn't sign), Josh Phelps, Casey Blake, Billy Koch
1997 - 7 - Orlando Hudson, Vernon Wells, Michael Young, Mark Hendrickson, Chad Qualls (didn't sign)
1998 - 4 - Felipe Lopez, Jay Gibbons
1999 - 4 - Alex Rios, Reed Johnson
2000 - 4 - McGowan, Vinnie Chulk
2001 - 5 - Gabe Gross, Brandon League
-----end of Gord Ash era, start of JP----
2002 - 3 - Russ Adams, Dave Bush, Adam Peterson
2003 - 4 - Hill, Marcum, Tom Mastney, Ryan Roberts
2004 - 3 - Lind, Janssen, Zack Jackson
2005 - 0
2006 - 0

Interesting looking at the 3 big era's.

Gillick - 18 years - 123 made it, average of 6.8 per year, peak of 12 (3 times)
Ash - 7 years - 36 made it, average of 5.1 per year, peak of 8
JP - 5 years, 10 made it, 2 per year, peak of 4

Way too early on JP and a few more Ash picks should make it before they all retire.  Just the one total dud, assuming someone will make it someday from 5/6/7.  Love that 1978 draft getting 2 big pieces of Jay history, and 1982 getting 3 key players for the first World Series win.  Also interesting to see some of the drafted but didn't sign who went on to solid careers (Abbott, Erickson, Hammonds, Mathany, Hudson the first time drafted).

Chris DH - Sunday, June 10 2007 @ 01:32 AM EDT (#169630) #

In response to jgadfly.

Perhaps I am taking your critism of the media incorrectly.  It is reputable publications like Baseball America that have come out initially and commented on liking the Jays draft.  Bryan Smith of baseballanalysts.com and baseballprospectus.com has said the Jays had the best draft after Day 1.  Based on your argument that the U.S. media pretty much ignores Canada (i.e. Blue Jays), then this praise is worth even more.  It is also especially gratifying since both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus have been fairly negative towards the Blue Jays drafting/minor league system over the past few years or the Blue Jays management.

In terms of Kevin Ahrens.  Baseball America had him ranked as the 3rd best high school pure hitter behind Vitters and Moustakas - the guys taken 2nd and 3rd in the draft.  Thats good enough for me.

J.P. Arencibia.  Was the #10 ranked college prospect going into the season with his injury making him fall in the rankings.  Scouting reports have him as a very good hitter with questionable defense although he has a strong arm.  I think, with work, he can improve his defense.  Cant teach arm strength.  I also like the Javy Lopez comparisons i heard on ESPN2 during the draft.

Cecil.  Some people worry about him being a lefty specialist.  Set-up man would be his lower limit i would suspect.  He has been mentioned as a potential closer but i wont be surprised if the Jays keep in the starting rotation as long as possible.  At Baseball America, he had the #2 ranked secondary pitch (his slider of course).  Cecil was also mentioned as having one of the best fastballs of the college pitchers.  Once again that works for me.

I think both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus are pysched/impressed with the Tolisano, Jackson and Eiland high school picks.  Eiland was considered one of the best athletes in the draft.  Eiland and Jackson were also considered two of the fastest runners in the draft.  Interestingly, Tolisano was considered one of the closest to the majors of the high school group.

There has also been positive reviews for Magnuson, Rzepcynski, and Brad Mills.  Magnuson and Rzepcynski may not project to be more that relievers but it appears as if they will be excellent relievers that could climb very quickly through the minors.  Although people see Magnuson as an easy sign, being a 5th year senior, he was ranked in the top 200 prospects by Baseball America (#199 i think).

Yes it would have been nice to pick Porcella with the #21 pick but the Jays werent the only team that passed him up - pretty much every other team did.  He was destined to go to Detroit or the Yankees.  I would say budgetary constraints played a part of the Jays decision as they had all those early picks (admittedly they probably would have passed on him if they didnt have all those picks).  I was quite happy to see the Jays take a flier on another young pitcher who dropped - RHP Matt Thompson.  That would make the Jays draft that much better if they could sign him.

There round 11 pick, 2B Brad Emaus looks interesting too.  He was mentioned as one of the best pure hitters in the college ranks prior to the spring season.  He was another player the Jays grabbed as their stock fell with a poor season (Arencibia, Eiland).  I dont mind that strategy.

I am probably regurgitating a lot of stuff people already know but the Jays draft has me psyched and looking forward to the Jays future.

C..

 

 

 

 

.

 

 

mendocino - Sunday, June 10 2007 @ 03:32 AM EDT (#169633) #
Dewan Day with the White Sox was a Draft & Follow in 2002.
mendocino - Sunday, June 10 2007 @ 04:01 AM EDT (#169634) #

If Rich Thompson ('00) gets credit with 1 ab in the majors then at least 4 more picks between 02 & 04 will have to be counted.

02 - Dewan Day (see above), Jordan De Jong

03 - Jamie Vermilyea

04 - Jesse Lisch & Curtis Thigpen.

You forgot to mention the Jay's 13th rounder in '95 as one missed.

williams_5 - Sunday, June 10 2007 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#169648) #

Hmmm....the Jays also drafted Brad Hawpe, who I'm assuming decided on college before being drafted by the Rockies 3 years later.

Chris DH - Sunday, June 10 2007 @ 10:55 PM EDT (#169649) #

I think there has to be some type of asterisk when comparing the three GM's.  I am sure Gillick and Ricciardi, coming from scouting backgrounds, were/are both heavily involved in the draft whereas Ashe had a hands off approach.  It would also be interesting to see it broken down by Scouting Director...

C.

Manhattan Mike - Monday, June 11 2007 @ 08:14 AM EDT (#169654) #

"Yes it would have been nice to pick Porcella with the #21 pick but the Jays werent the only team that passed him up - pretty much every other team did.  He was destined to go to Detroit or the Yankees.  I would say budgetary constraints played a part of the Jays decision as they had all those early picks (admittedly they probably would have passed on him if they didnt have all those picks).  I was quite happy to see the Jays take a flier on another young pitcher who dropped - RHP Matt Thompson.  That would make the Jays draft that much better if they could sign him."

I'm curious, Chris, why do you say include the Tigers alongside the Yankees?

Is it from an organization risk/reward outlook in terms of signing a guy like Porcello to a big contract? It can't possiblt be about money, for the Tigers aren't considered a top market franchise. And the Dodgers, who have a far larger base, passed on Porcello.

Pistol - Monday, June 11 2007 @ 08:47 AM EDT (#169655) #
I am sure Gillick and Ricciardi, coming from scouting backgrounds, were/are both heavily involved in the draft whereas Ashe had a hands off approach.

I can't speak for Gillick's drafts, but the word from the Jays is that Ricciardi plays a big part in deciding on the first rounders, but after that he has very little input, other than setting the direction of the draft.
bill - Tuesday, June 12 2007 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#169714) #
The Blue Jays have signed 12 of the picks as of today: Mcdade, Walden, Talley, Crowell, Jennings, Mastroianni, santos, Letko, gailey. Dougher, Monti, and Buckwalter.
Chris DH - Tuesday, June 12 2007 @ 10:48 PM EDT (#169727) #

I am refering to the Tigers record the past few years to take the premiere player that drops to them (i.e. in 2005 taking arguably a top 3 player in Cameron Maybin with the 9th pick and then last year taking arguably the #1 player in Andrew Miller with the 5th/6th pick).

I think money is part of it.  The Jays have a certain amount of money allocated to the draft and with all of the early picks couldnt afford an overly expensive player like Porcello.  Does Jays management have the option of going to Ted Rogers and requesting an increase to the budget to afford a "special player" like Porcello?  Will the Jays ever do that for a high school pitcher? I dont know - it doesnt appear that way.

However, it does appear that Detroit management and ownership is willing to significantly go over slot to sign players.  They may be a smaller market team (relative to Toronto) but it appears both management and ownership are committed to drafting the top talent and do not have the risk/reward concerns.

 

Chris DH - Tuesday, June 12 2007 @ 11:06 PM EDT (#169730) #

Pistol - thanks for the input.  Wonder what Ashe's involvement with the first round pick(s) and general direction of the draft would be.  I assume the Scouting Director had total autonomy?

Curious as to the 2007 draft and whether JP had more input with all of these early picks.

C.

Pistol - Wednesday, June 13 2007 @ 08:32 AM EDT (#169749) #
The Jays have a certain amount of money allocated to the draft and with all of the early picks couldnt afford an overly expensive player like Porcello.  Does Jays management have the option of going to Ted Rogers and requesting an increase to the budget to afford a "special player" like Porcello?

It wouldn't surprise me if the reason the Jays don't go over slot is that they're afraid of MLB coming down on them for it.  The Jays have received discretionary money in the past from baseball and if they were to do something MLB didn't like that might cause it to dry up.
ayjackson - Friday, June 15 2007 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#169921) #

Trystan Magnussen's bio from the University of Louisville's media program for the 2007 College World Series.  (page 55)

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