Rivera - 37 years old at 419, someone will put him in a closer role for at least 2 more seasons, but if he gains only 20-30 saves both years plus 20 more this year he'd be in the high 400's and someone would give him a shot for those last few I'd figure. I still think he should get there but not as much of a lock as in the past.

Billy Wagner - 337 saves and 35 years old. Needs 163 more, or basically 4 more good years. Strong arm, but anything goes wrong and costs him time it would be hard to recover.

Roberto Hernandez is next on the save list but is 42 and has saved just 6 games in the past 4 seasons plus this one.

No other actives are over 300. If you are sub-300 and over 30 I think you have an uphill battle to make it.

For sub-30 year olds Francisco Rodriguez is tops at 25 years old and 125 saves. He needs 375 more, or 38 a year for 10 years which could happen. If he gets 45 a year (he reached that each of the past 2 years) then he'd be at 575 and have a shot at 600. He is that oddity of a young kid getting a closer role really early. Rivera didn't get his first save until he was 26, a full time closer at 27. Hoffman had just 5 saves at the end of his age 25 season. Of course, a blown out arm is also a strong possiblity.