Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - 26 May 2007: So What's the Problem, Anyway?

26 May 2007: So What's the Problem, Anyway?

It's not the pitching. Which you knew already, no doubt.

Yup. Despite everything that's happened, and there's been plenty. Brandon League was not available to start the season, B.J. Ryan went down until mid-summer and then for the year, Josh Towers was weighed in the balance and found wanting, Tomo Ohka has been more or less wanting from the get-go, Gustavo Chacin went down, and then Roy Halladay himself got sick... yadda yadda yadda. A lot of problems, a lot of things have gone wrong.

So what was the impact? The Jays have allowed 219 runs in 47 games. They're on pace to allow 754 runs. Which is exactly how many they gave up last season, and roughly right in the middle of all the pre-season forecasts around here (which ranged from 737 to 780 runs against, more or less.)

Granted, scoring around the AL is down about 4 percent from last season - AL teams are scoring 4.77 runs a game to date, as opposed to 4.97 in 2006. The main reason for this is the weather - April is the coolest month, and it accounts for half the games played so far. Offense heats up with the weather.

And the AL teams haven't yet had an opportunity to get up close and personal with those NL pitching staffs...

But on the whole, Jays fans should be very, very happy with the ways the runs are being prevented.

Which leaves us to discuss the other half of the equation. Next time.

Posted by Magpie on Saturday, May 26 2007 @ 05:00 AM EDT.

26 May 2007: So What's the Problem, Anyway? | 23 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

jerjapan - Saturday, May 26 2007 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#168585) #

I don't know if it's as simple as blaming the offence. Missing Zaun and Johnson hurts, but really, only Wells and Thomas have been disappointing with the bat. To me it's a question of giving away runs needlessly when the shortstops bat, Stairs grabs his glove or the bottom of the rotation takes the ball. I recognize the limited value of wins, but the crew that have taken turns pitching 3 through 5 are a combined 8 and 15.

I hate to beat a dead horse, but to me this season is as much Gibbons' and Riccardi's fault as anyone's. Zambrano rehabbing in the bigs? MacDonald with 78ABs, including pinch hitting? Getting Thomas to DH for big bucks while Glaus appears headed for the role, and going into the season with Jason Smith as your backup at third? Royce Clayton? These are all managerial decisions, but throw in some bad luck injuries, a weak minor league system (again, Riccardi's responsibility) and a couple of late meltdowns by closers and it's been a rough year so far. This team was a house of cards to begin with, and there doesn't appear to have been a backup plan for many of the injuries we've endured.

Chuck - Saturday, May 26 2007 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#168591) #

but really, only Wells and Thomas have been disappointing with the bat.

Lind (630 OPS) has underperformed and Zaun (620) had as well prior to his injury.

It's arguable whether Overbay's 800 OPS has been an under-performance or whether this is closer to his true ability than last year's 880. I fear the real Overbay is about 50 points lower than the 2006 model.

I've said a few times that I thought that people were over-rating the team's offense at the start of the year, expecting repeat performances from Thomas, Rios, Johnson, Zaun and Wells and not adequately appreciating the cost of the sinkhole that shortstop represented. And now, with Zaun out, the team has two major sinkholes. Factor in $27M going to two guys with mid-700 OPS's and you've got yourself an emasculated juggernaut.

CaramonLS - Saturday, May 26 2007 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#168592) #

Of course, then there are the Padres who have 2 regular starters with an OPS above .694, yet still have a 27-21 record. (No, I have not counted the illustrious Jose Cruz Jr). You can do that when your team has only allowed 164 runs to this point in the season.

jerjapan - Saturday, May 26 2007 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#168593) #

Chuck, Lind has been disappointing but he's still too young to be counted on, and I think he could have been eased into the majors more smoothly on a better constructed roster - starting against pitchers who he matches up with favourably, pinch-hitting in low pressure situations, etc. Zaun was a disappointment, but it was a pretty small sample size before the injury.

Overall, I completely agree with you - this offence was overrated going into the year.

tstaddon - Saturday, May 26 2007 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#168595) #

Unless Tomo Ohka is very impressive today, I'd send both he and Litsch to Syracuse, recalling Thomson to start on Wednesday against the Yankees and getting Roy back to throw Thursday. Litsch now has two strikeouts over three starts. He won't be successful pitching like that. Better to let him work on his stuff -- against more advanced hitters than he was seeing at AA.

Elsewhere, Jamie Vermilyea hasn't pitched in 16 days. Isn't having him and Towers a little redundant? I've been an advocate of the 7-man pen before, but with Tallet pitching well and Frasor seeming to have turned a corner, why not bring up Olmedo? It's not as though Towers is in the plans next year anyway: so if you need him to give you 2 innings on back to back days, go for it.

Also: when shall we begin the chorus for a long-term Rios deal? Saving arbitration dollars would be nice, what with him proving to be the most dynamic hitter in our lineup and all.

CaramonLS - Saturday, May 26 2007 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#168596) #

Also: when shall we begin the chorus for a long-term Rios deal? Saving arbitration dollars would be nice, what with him proving to be the most dynamic hitter in our lineup and all.

How much do you give him? You just gave another guy who can also play CF an insane contract and right now Rios is hitting a lot better than Wells.

AWeb - Saturday, May 26 2007 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#168597) #

Thomas hasn't just been disappointing. Disappointing would be an OPS of 850. To this point in the year, to not mince words, he's been a disaster, especially at his cost. I still expect him to turn it around and be at least above average the rest of the way, and the last two games are a good sign, but he's been more than disappointing to me.

This terrible-ness has been overshadowed by the catchers (206/279/316) and the shortstops (210/244/284), but those can't be seen as huge surprises. There's a reason why JP wanted Barajas instead (OPS+ of 104 in Philly). The lack of surprise in the blackhole at short is a problem with the GM which I , among others, have complained enough about. Clayton has been terrible defensively so far as well, according to Range factor, and my own eyes. With Glaus (acceptable defense at his level of hitting at least) and Clayton on the left side, the pitching is likely better than we think.

I think we all hoped Lind could jump in right away and provide better offense, but this should serve as a stark reminder as to why GMs and managers like "proven" veterens so much, even when they aren't very good. Youngsters usually need time. Rios needed 2 full years. Hill needed a year and a half. Halladay flamed out in his 2nd year. Glaus was a mediocre rookie. Overbay struggled early in Arizona. This is what most rookies do.

VBF - Saturday, May 26 2007 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#168598) #

Thomas hasn't just been disappointing. Disappointing would be an OPS of 850. To this point in the year, to not mince words, he's been a disaster, especially at his cost

Blech. Thomas was doing exactly the same at this time last year. He'll be there at the end with his 35 homers and high .800 OPS and we'll all pull out our sharpened pencils and write him in for next year. Glaus can keep the third base thing going for a year and a half more, he's shown he can play through antagonizing pain and when Thomas merrily ends his career, he too can go to DH.

In a dream world, Overbay would have been brought up as a third baseman then we might just consider swapping the two.

Pistol - Saturday, May 26 2007 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#168599) #

when shall we begin the chorus for a long-term Rios deal?

The bandwagon started months ago!

Lefty - Saturday, May 26 2007 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#168602) #

Litsch now has two strikeouts over three starts. He won't be successful pitching like that. Better to let him work on his stuff -- against more advanced hitters than he was seeing at AA.

I couldn't agree more. I was the lone wolf after his very first start going 8 1/3 of one run ball. Thst was just a rookie fluke. It actually happens quite often and then reality sets in. Folks shouldn't hang onto unrealistic expectations after one nice start by an unkown rookie.

The book was right on this one.

The same goes for Lind, the young man is simply overmatched presently However i suppose the injury to Sparky give ample excuse for keeping him up. Stairs was certainly questionable as the season opened. I'll excuse JP for keeping him up under the circumstances, but the Litsch decision was desperately clutching at straws. JP had to have known.

Joanna - Saturday, May 26 2007 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#168604) #

I may be the only one to care, but my old friend and yours, Orlando Hudson will be featured on TWIB. Apparently, like his Jays teammates, none of the Diamondbacks know what the hell he is saying either.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070524&content_id=1983661&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

Litsch's problem (as far as I could tell on the radio) was that he doesn't have an out pitch. There is nothing wrong with pitching to contact. But a pitcher needs to be able to strike guys out should he need to. Litsch was giving up a lot of 2 strike singles or going 0-2 and then running the count full.

StephenT - Saturday, May 26 2007 @ 11:02 PM EDT (#168614) #

I've enjoyed listening to the game on the radio tonight (the game's currently in the 13th inning as I write this).

fyi: I believe the play-by-play caller by inning was as follows: (Jerry 1st, 2nd), (Ashby 3rd, 4th), (Jerry 5th, 6th), (Ashby 7th), (Jerry 8th, 9th), (Ashby 10th), (Jerry 11th, 12th), (Ashby 13th).

Good interview with the president of the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame (Tom Valcke) in the 5th inning. He presented the Tip O'Neill award to Justin Morneau before the game. Apparently he drove 13 hours (from St. Marys (I presume) to Minneapolis) to be there.

HollywoodHartman - Sunday, May 27 2007 @ 12:45 AM EDT (#168615) #

Amazing game. Took years off of my life though.

Magpie - Sunday, May 27 2007 @ 09:27 AM EDT (#168616) #

Had 'em all the way.

VBF - Sunday, May 27 2007 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#168617) #

But that's okay. He had a great outing the first go around, and came back to reality shortly afterwards. There's nothing wrong with it, it isn't going to play around in his head, and his confidence isn't shattered. So what if he now knows that he isn't going to win rookie of the year in 2007! :)

He'll go to AAA now, work with the people there and hang around for the rest of the year or maybe longer and try his stuff until perhaps this September or sometime next year. No harm done, no time wasted. I'm glad we gave him two more starts to get a better idea of how he currently matches in the bigs.

And the Towers analogy after the glorious sample size of three starts, is completely uncessary :P

CeeBee - Sunday, May 27 2007 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#168619) #

Interesting given the Jays lack of scoring, percieved or otherwise but ranking 10th in the majors and 5th in the AL in OPS at .763 really surprised me. Now if Wells and Thomas pick it up and Sparky and Zaun come back hitting better than their replacements maybe we really will see some offence in these parts.

Mike Green - Sunday, May 27 2007 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#168620) #

Ever the contrarian, I see lots and lots of good news on this club despite the below-.500 record. Rios and Hill have both taken the step forward that I hoped they would. Despite all the injuries, the club's pitching staff is in respectable shape. And now, Jason Frasor is being given high leverage innings again.

When Johnson and Zaun return, the offence should be in good shape. Ricciardi should be on the hunt for a cheap middle reliever to allow Janssen to move to the rotation soon.

China fan - Sunday, May 27 2007 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#168624) #

Just to continue the optimistic thinking: I wonder if it's time to give a bit more respect to Brian Tallet. I know he's been dismissed often by Bauxites in the past, and he certainly was unimpressive at the beginning of the year. But he's had several excellent outings in recent weeks, and last night was a pretty high-leverage situation. After his strong performance last night, his year-to-date stats are almost identical to those of Scott Downs (except for strikeouts). If he can continue the good work, he could be a highly useful piece of the bullpen puzzle. That, in turn, could make it a bit easier to bump Janssen into the starting rotation at some point this season.

JB21 - Sunday, May 27 2007 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#168630) #

In a dream world, Overbay would have been brought up as a third baseman then we might just consider swapping the two.

This is the second time that I've read somebody say this on this site ... Overbay is LEFT HANDED.

Lefty - Monday, May 28 2007 @ 02:15 AM EDT (#168638) #

Everyones entitled to an opinion, and hold to mine, as described two weeks ago and on this thread. The way people were talking about Litsch you'd have thought the kid was going to do an Aaron Sele, but without the pedigree.

And when you retort, please keep the assertions made by others separate. I made no mention of Towers in my post, but you made it look like I did. Though I would have a hard time finding to much fault with that particular post. I would say that if Jesse has as good a career as has been enjoyed by Josh so far, then he will have done well.

Lefty - Monday, May 28 2007 @ 02:23 AM EDT (#168639) #

I agree with you completely China Fan, a grand total of about 2 or 3 of us regulars were in here in the trenchs making the case for Tallet, ;ast season and this spring.

We have to keep things in context and thats not always easy to do as a fan. Around here it seems Not to be so much as, "what have you done for me lately, but what have you done for me this minute when I need instant gratification."

Simply put, Tallet was a steal. And for free I might add. Ricciardi struck gold with him and Accardo.

Maldoff - Monday, May 28 2007 @ 09:11 AM EDT (#168644) #

Tallet wasn't for free. The Jays traded Bubbie Buzachero for him.

26 May 2007: So What's the Problem, Anyway? | 23 comments | Create New Account

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