It's a bit unfair to moan about the pitching, when everyone knew (entering the season) that the pitching would be dodgy.  Everyone knew, after Lilly left and Meche didn't sign, that the Jays were going to have serious problems in the 3, 4 and 5 slots in the rotation.  That's been compounded by injuries to League, Ryan, Chacin, Halladay and Thomson.  Despite all of that, the Jays pitching is still the 5th-best in the league!   That's pretty phenomenal.

    It's the offence that's been disappointing.  Entering the season, the Jays were supposed to have one of the most powerful lineups in the league.  Everyone said the lineup from 1 to 7 would be dangerous.  Aside from shortstop and catcher, this is supposed to be a powerful offence.  And yet it's been distinctly mediocre.  Injuries have been a factor, but the injuries have mostly hit the pitchers, not the hitters.  Johnson has been out, but Lind was supposed to be a great replacement -- instead he is hitting a miserable .231.   Zaun has been out, and Glaus has been hampered.  But what about the rest of the lineup?   Of all the hitters, only three -- Glaus, Rios and Hill -- are having decent seasons so far.

    This, oddly enough, is grounds for optimism.  Despite horrible injuries and some disappointing performances by several key hitters, the Jays are still within six-and-a-half games of the wild card.   If the hitters revert to their expected performance, and if the young pitchers can continue to do well, and if Halladay comes back soon (a lot of ifs, I know), then the Jays could actually improve dramatically.   They could still have a shot at the wild card if the hitters can perform up to their potential.

It's been alarmingly quiet in here since last night's game, and it left me thinking that there might be some problems with the site.

Then I wondered if it's just that nobody knows how, or if they're allowed, to react when AJ spins such a gem as he did last night, except but to handle with care.  If it makes any difference, I wish he imagined he had to be the ace all the time.

I have to admit I was concerned around the 2nd and 3rd innings when A.J. was getting hit hard.  That ball Millar crushed left the yard in a hurry.   Kudos to Ryan Roberts for making that great catch at the wall after that face plant into the left field fence on that line drive by Huff.  It sort of reminded me of Devo's catch in the '92 World Series.  I thought that ball was gone as soon as it left the bat.  

Somehow, the offence grinded out enough runs to pull this one out.  Troy Glaus came through with some nice baserunning to score the first run, he saw all the way that Thomas' bloop to centre was going to fall in and it made things easier for him to score on Aaron Hill's single.

I'm really glad A.J. went the distance because I sure as hell didn't want to see Josh Towers or Jason Frasor coming in to that game as they were warming up.  Maybe that was a scare tactic by Gibbons :).

How else would a bauxite react to a Burnett gem than by number crunching:

AJ has made 9 starts to this point of the season - 3 versus the Detroit/Cleveland and 6 versus the rest of the league.

The lines:

Det/Cle:  12.1 IP, 12.41 ERA, 14 K, 9 W, 2.51 WHIP

RoL:  44 IP, 1.64 ERA, 41K, 20 W, 1.02 WHIP

Just taking out that snowy day in Detroit, he has been ace-like:

54.1 IP, 3.11 ERA, 53 K, 25 W, 1.20 WHIP

He looks like he's having himself a fine season.  Just needs to cut down on the walks a wee bit.

The Jays have the 5th-best pitching in the league (measured by WHIP or by ERA)  but their hitting is only the 9th best in the league (measured by batting average).

Why not use R/G as a metric to evaluate offense? The Jays are tied with LA and Oakland for 9th, at 4.4. Given that those two teams play in less favourable hitting environments, the Jays arguably rank 11th.

While I think that the impression of their offense was overstated at the start of the year (too many expectations of repeat performances of 2006 numbers -- Thomas, Rios, Johnson, Wells, Zaun, Overbay), they really have nowhere to go but up from that 4.4 R/G.

While Glaus figures to regress, Thomas, Overbay and Lind all figure to improve on their first quarter numbers (how could they not?). The catcher and shortstop sinkholes can't get any worse for the balance of the season, a situation that Zaun's return can only ameliorate.

Rios might improve, though his 326/513 has been fine, if a little light in the on-base department. And Wells? Over the past five years, we have seen two versions of the man: Vernon the great, the 900 OPS variety (which we have seen twice) and Vernon the merely good, the 780ish OPS variety (which we have seen three times). 2007 has him looking like the latter, though perhaps his recent illness has contributed to that. 

I don't know exactly where this team is going to be in September, but I'm pretty comfortable saying this: The Worst is Over.

Ryan: I think Bill Cosby said it best when he said, "Never challenge Worse."

     A few other optimistic points:

         1) in addition to the devastating number of injuries, the Jays were hit badly by the flu bug, which seems to have swept through the clubhouse, affecting everyone from Wells to Halladay at various points in the season.  It's further evidence that the team has had freakishly bad luck this season.  Surely it has to change.

        2)  Glaus might slip a bit in the remainder of the season, but the overall performance of the 3B position might not slip.  Don't forget that Glaus has missed a lot of games this year, and his replacements (Smith etc) did pretty badly.  So if Glaus can manage to play the bulk of the remaining games, he'll be replacing ABs that went to inferior hitters in much of the first third of the season. 

       3) in the wild-card race, there's still a chance that Detroit or Cleveland might cool off.   Surely they won't both continue to be well over .600 for the whole season.  If so, the Jays chances look much better.  They've definitely got a crack at 2nd place in the East Division.  And the 2nd-place team in the West division might not be too impressive.  That could leave the wild-card race wide open.

      4)  there's always the possibility that Marcum and Litsch and McGowan -- or two of those three -- could replicate the performance of the unheralded Chacin in his first season in the majors, before the rest of the league figured out his weaknesses.  If so, the rotation suddenly looks much better.  Then, when Halladay returns, the Ohkas and Chacins are just there for back-up depth -- which is where they belong. 

I also think something that we're missing when it comes to the offense is the composition of the lineup.  Rios, while a solid hitter, is NOT a leadoff guy. He's a 6-hole guy. Adam Lind, a Matt Stairs for that matter, should not be hitting in the 2-slot. Aaron Hill should be there, with Lind/Stairs in the 7-slot. For some reason, Gibby loves the right-lefty-righty combinations. But with the current construction of the team, it is hampering their ability to create runs.

I'm not worried at all about the offence.  Wells is on pace to hit 17 homers and Thomas 20, no way that happens.  Overbay won't finish the year with a .241 average either.  Lind won't keep hitting .231 with a .288 OBP, and if he does, he'll get some more AAA experience when Johnson comes back.  Glaus will come back down to earth, but Hill and Rios are about where they should be.  Hill's AVG and OBP will probably go up a bit, but his power will likely diminish slightly, since I doubt he'll finish the year with 24 dingers.  Rios' power is right where I thought it would be, he's on pace for 33 homers, but I wouldn't be surprised if his AVG and OBP went up a little from .278 / .326.  As Mike Green pointed out some time ago, this is the first year he didn't play winter ball and so he may take some time to warm up.

Anyway, with the exception of Glaus at 3B and Clayton/McDonald at SS, I expect to see offensive improvement at every position as players start to hit like their career norms and Johnson and Zaun return.  There's reason for optimism with the starting rotation with Halladay/Burnett/McGowan/Marcum/Litsch possible for the rest of the year, and if the hitting picks up like I think it will, well, I think this team will finish the year above .500 at the very least.

Such is the need for arms in Gotham that Pete Walker has signed a minor league deal with the Evil Empire. Recognizing that many here have a soft spot for the man, there's no need to feel conflicted about wishing him well in pinstripes. If he finds himself on the major league roster, that will be symptomatic of some pretty dire circumstances that any success he has will not possibly offset.

Craig Wilson's OPS for the last five years (2003 - 2007):  871/853/808/760/563

A cautionary trend no doubt, though as recent as last year, his OPS against lefties was 843.