Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

There's a bit of a gap between the top pitchers and the group after it. Price, Detwiler, Moskos and Brackman are all likely to go in the top 10. After that no starter stands out and there's a couple closers that are possibilities in the second half of the first round. The Blue Jays were reported to be interested in Vanderbilt closer Casey Weathers.

David Price, LHP, Vanderbilt

Year	Innings	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	H/9
2005	69.1	2.86	12.0	3.9	0.5	6.6
2006	110.1	4.16	12.7	3.5	0.7	7.5
2007	105.1	2.91	12.8	2.2	0.1	6.9

The consensus seems to be that Price is a lock to be taken by the Devil Rays with the 1st pick in the draft.

Ross Detwiler, LHP, Missouri St

Year	Innings	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	H/9
2005	34	6.35	9.3	7.4	0.3	7.7
2006	93	2.81	9.6	4.5	0.4	7.1
2007	79	2.28	11.3	3.8	0.7	6.5

Prior to this season I wrote that Detwiler made a big jump last year and if he made another jump this year he'd likely move into the first round. Well, he has made a jump and he will go in the first round. Of course, I wouldn't have guessed he would be a top 10 pick.

Daniel Moskos, LHP, Clemson

Year	Innings	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	H/9
2005	16.2	5.40	8.3	7.2	0.6	13.3
2006	53.2	2.52	9.1	3.6	0.2	7.4
2007	54.2	2.63	11.0	4.5	0.3	8.3

Moskos used to close, but recently has been starting for the Tigers. The walks are a little higher than you'd like in a top 10 pick.

Andrew Brackman, RHP, NC State

Year	Innings	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	H/9
2005	43	2.09	9.0	3.8		6.7
2006	28.1	6.35	10.2	6.1	0.6	11.9
2007	78	3.81	8.5	4.3		9.0

Brackman is interesting. He's really tall (6-10) and reportedly has great stuff. However, despite that he doesn't exactly shut other teams down. Of course, the same thing was said about Justin Verlander a few years ago.

Casey Weathers, RHP, Vanderbilt

Year	Innings	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	H/9
2006	27	3.33	12.7	5.3	0.7	7.7
2007	39	2.31	13.4	4.2	0.2	4.2

A classic power reliever (with an intimidating look no less). As you can see by the numbers not too many hitters are touching Weathers. It's pretty impressive to have a K/BB ratio of 3+ when you walk 4.2 per 9. As far as I know there's no consideration for him to start, but he could turn out to be a reliever who makes the majors quickly much like Cordero or Street did (of course, there's many similar failures as well).

Brett Cecil, LHP, Maryland

Year	Innings	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	H/9
2005	43	3.77	8.4	2.7	0.0	8.6
2006	58.1	4.78	8.4	3.1	0.5	8.5
2007	56.1	2.88	9.5	2.7	0.3	8.0

Cecil is another closer turned starter (albeit one start so far). There is thought that he could continue to start after being drafted as he has three pitches.

Nick Schmidt, LHP, Arkansas

Year	Innings	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	H/9
2005	90.2	2.88	8.1	3.6	0.7	7.7
2006	108.2	2.98	11.2	4.0	0.5	6.7
2007	100.2	2.95	8.7	3.9	0.6	6.6

Schmidt's been pretty consistent. He's not overpowering so he's probably a 3/4 starter if he makes it, but those are pretty valuable these days.

James Simmons, RHP, UC Riverside

Year	Innings	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	H/9
2005	36.2	2.95	6.0	1.0	0.5	9.2
2006	109.1	2.96	7.8	1.6	0.9	8.9
2007	102.1	2.11	9.0	1.1	0.6	7.1

Simmons is pretty similar to Schmidt, except that he has much better control.

----

As for the Jays they'll probably only have a chance to draft the last 4 players listed. Weathers and Cecil are possibilities in round one and Simmons and Schmidt would be considered in the supplemental round if they're still around.

Posted by Pistol on Thursday, May 17 2007 @ 03:45 PM EDT.

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ayjackson - Thursday, May 17 2007 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#168271) #

What's the word on Cole St. Clair and Sean Doolittle who looked very promising prior to the season??

Pistol - Thursday, May 17 2007 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#168272) #

St Clair has been hurt most of the season so far. He's appeared in 9 games now - 12 innings, 16 Ks, 3 BBs.

Doolittle's been ok. His pitching and hitting.

Brian B. - Thursday, May 17 2007 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#168276) #

I guess you don't believe Joe Savery's fastball is going to regain its velocity and movement.

Smaj - Thursday, May 17 2007 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#168277) #

Pistol - thanks for the draft insights, always something I look forward to, especially this year with the Jays multitude of picks. One player I hear I great deal about is Seton Hall righty Rick Porcello who could be a top 5 pick.

Also Madison Bumgarner (tough moniker) seems to be garnering some attention as well. Phillipe Aumont from Gatineau is turning some heads with a 97 mph heater that may bring him into the top 10 picks (he is 6'7" ; 225 lbs & throws gas.....bound to grab some scouts attention).

Has there been any indication from the Jays Scouting Department that they will take the highest ceiling players available period, regardless of High School/College or signability issues? I would think with the excess capital (not spent in free agency) JP should be able to allocate more dollars to signing/gambling on the amateur draft. Will anyone at The Box be speaking with Jon Lalonde prior to the draft? Be interesting to hear his philosophy & insights on this years draft.

With the 16th pick I think the Jays should be intrigued by Weathers (K rates are impressive), however my feeling is that Mills is the guy they want at #16 & Weathers would be a bonus at #21. One guy I want no part of is Julio Borbon (he has Negron written all over him).

Any indications on the depth of this draft? Lets hope the Jays can hit lightning twice in their first 7 picks (#16, 21, 38, 45, 56, 86, 89) in terms of getting a couple of future above average MLB roster players. Anything beyond this would be absolute gravy & dessert.

ayjackson - Thursday, May 17 2007 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#168278) #

Any idea where St. Clair and Doolittle would slide to in the draft, given their trouble this year.

Pistol - Thursday, May 17 2007 @ 07:22 PM EDT (#168283) #

Has there been any indication from the Jays Scouting Department that they will take the highest ceiling players available period, regardless of High School/College or signability issues?

Ricciardi mentioned taking a bunch of high school players a few months ago and I can't imagine that's changed recently, especially with Snider's success and the way the draft is shaping up.

Going from the past the Jays have avoided Boras clients and with extra picks I can't see them going out and drafting players who will want more than slot money.

The big question is whether the Jays would take a HS pitcher early which they've never done under JP. Based on rankings I've seen there's about a half dozen pitchers ranked in the 12-21 range.

Ron - Thursday, May 17 2007 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#168284) #

CaramonLS - Thursday, May 17 2007 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#168285) #

I sure hope the Jays select based on talent first and not bonus demands. I've said it before and I'll say it again, even big time bonuses in the draft are tiny compared to money that is given out to free agents. The Jays liked Maybin but passed because they heard his camp was looking for a big bonus. The Jays went cheap and selected Romero instead. This selection could really haunt the Jays.

I agree completely, they didn't even take the best pitcher in the draft when they selected Romero. Pelfrey was the overwhelming favorite, and compare the two now. What was the difference anyways? Roughly 1 million (another good portion of the money was a gaurentee of pitching in the bigs, which added to the initial figures).

So 2/3rds of a Royce Clayton or 2/3rds of an Ohka.

You gotta pay the premium. Bush vs. Drew isn't even close right now, Bush turns out to be completely lost money, while Drew is budding superstar.

ChicagoJaysFan - Thursday, May 17 2007 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#168287) #

You gotta pay the premium. Bush vs. Drew isn't even close right now, Bush turns out to be completely lost money, while Drew is budding superstar.

Pardon my ignorance, but who are you talking about?

The only Bush that I can think of the Jays drafting recently is Dave Bush. His bonus wasn't lost money as he had a couple of decent seasons for the Jays, it brought Overbay on board eventually, and Bush was middle-of-the-road again for Milwaukee last year. However, I don't know of any Drew that was picked anywhere near the middle of the second round in '02 (first or last name).

Rob - Thursday, May 17 2007 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#168288) #

St Clair has been hurt most of the season so far.

Exit light, enter night. The Jays must draft this guy anyway.

Ron - Thursday, May 17 2007 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#168290) #

Pardon my ignorance, but who are you talking about?

He's talking about the Pads selecting Matt Bush with the number 1 pick. Boy oh boy was that a huge mistake. Sure Bush was willing to sing for cheap but he's not a good ballplayer.

It's amazing teams will shy away from bonus demands that are only a couple of million yet have no problem eating millions to get rid of the Koskie's and Hinske's of the world. If I was a new owner, one of the first things I would do, is to invest in the draft and rookie international signings. I'm shocked that more teams don't do this.

CaramonLS - Thursday, May 17 2007 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#168291) #

Ron is correct, I should have been more clear by using first names.

Stephen Drew vs. Matt Bush.

This one needs to be tacked onto the wall of the Jays draft board room, even if a Boras client comes up as the BPA.

jgadfly - Thursday, May 17 2007 @ 10:43 PM EDT (#168292) #

Ron"...If I was a new owner, one of the first things I would do, is to invest in the draft and rookie international signings. I'm shocked that more teams don't do this." --------- I have to agree with you. A team that draws from international signings probably better than anyone are the Yankee$. With Cabrera and Cano already in the lineup they have a projected AllStar right fielder in Jose Tabata. Six months younger than Travis Snider he played SAL Single A last year at age 17(298 BA 797 OPS) and is already playing High A in the FSL at age 18 (293 BA 743 OPS). His signing bonus out of Venezuela as a 16 year old was $550,000. He is listed as being 5' 11" and 170 lbs which is only 75 pounds lighter than Snider's listed weight. The Yankee$ probably invest more money than most in Latin America because they have a significant Hispanic fan base and because they are usually near the bottom of the draft bidding order so they should have a disproportionally greater success rate than most. ...rada, rada ... etc., etc....

Thomas - Friday, May 18 2007 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#168314) #

It will be interesting to see what the Jays do if Phillip Aumont is up for grabs at the 16th selection.

I would hope they pick him, simply because I've seen several mock drafts with him going as high as 6 and nearly always in the top 10. If that sort of talent is available at 16, you have to go after it unless you're staying away from the guy for a particular reason.

However, I really doubt this happens. Bowden's supposed to be very high on him at #6 and I don't see him falling that far, regardless.

Marc Hulet - Friday, May 18 2007 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#168315) #

Aumont will not be there at 16. He is considered by many to now be the top prep pitcher, according to reports at Scout.com.

John Northey - Friday, May 18 2007 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#168323) #

I suspect the Jays avoid the Boras clients not just due to money but also due to the frequent demand they are on the 40 man roster right away, sometimes with a September call-up year one or two.

Doing this starts the clock on the player which reduces the time the Jays would have before the player can be into arbitration and free agency along with losing the ability to demote them to the minors a lot quicker - 3 years quicker. For a guy who is on the edge of the majors already (ala Olerud in '89) no problem, but those guys are few and far between. Better to pay more so you can keep them in the minors those extra seasons than to lose development time.

Of course, if it is a choice between a dud and a stud then do it. However in the draft there rarely is that big a spread in opinion on the potential of a group of players after you pass the first couple of choices, and sometimes not even then.

MatO - Friday, May 18 2007 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#168326) #

I suspect the Jays avoid the Boras clients not just due to money but also due to the frequent demand they are on the 40 man roster right away, sometimes with a September call-up year one or two.

I think this is essentially what's happened with Pelfrey. He was good but not great in AA last year and was called up to make a few appearances in September. This year he makes the club out of spring training but has been absolutely awful so far (something about the lack of a breaking pitch). I would say at this point in their careers that Pelfrey is no better than a (healthy) Romero.

CaramonLS - Friday, May 18 2007 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#168327) #

He was good but not great in AA last year and was called up to make a few appearances in September. This year he makes the club out of spring training but has been absolutely awful so far (something about the lack of a breaking pitch).

2.71 ERA, 77Ks in 66.1 IP... in AA.

Compare with Romero who has a ~4.8 ERA in about 85 IP in AA.

I guess Pelfrey didn't throw 10 straight no hitters, but those numbers are pretty damn impressive.

MatO - Friday, May 18 2007 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#168329) #

And you forgot to mention Pelfrey's 60 H and 26 BB in those 66 IP. I'm not overly impressed. I was referring to this point in Pelfrey's and Romero's (assuming a healthy Romero) careers. I'm sure Romero could have pitched at least as good (or bad) as Pelfrey has in the majors: 30IP 36H 17BB 13K.

timpinder - Friday, May 18 2007 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#168330) #

I keep hearing that Ricky Romero was a wasted pick. It's WAY too soon to say that. The guy has been very good except for one month, his first month, in AA at age 21. After his one month adjustment to AA his ERA went back under 3.00 for the rest of the year, like it was in A+. (Pelfrey was 22 when he was in AA, by the way). Romero probably won't be an ace, but as a lefty with three average-plus pitches and plus command, I think there's a very strong possibility that he'll be a good #3 starter, and if things go well maybe even a #2.

Sherrystar - Friday, May 18 2007 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#168337) #

I still believe Romero will be ok. The fact he's a lefty can only help.

So the Jays have a lot of picks in the 1st few rounds... but can anyone confirm that this draft is generally thought of a relatively weak one? As I read the list of prospects out of the top 10, I don;'t get very excited.

Pistol - Saturday, May 19 2007 @ 08:47 AM EDT (#168348) #

This is from BA:

The 2007 draft will have historical significance because of the TV coverage, but in the future it's likely this draft will be remembered most for its diversity and depth of talent. There are dozens of impact-potential players available this year.

The talent comes in all shapes and sizes: power-hitting outfielders, pure middle infielders, high school pitchers with eye-popping arm strength, and an intriguing crop of college lefthanders. The pool of college position players is thinner than it has been in most years, though the plethora of high school players supplements any shortcomings. The talent in this year's draft will drip deep throughout the oversized supplemental and second rounds.

Last year they were calling the drafts one of the weaker ones in a long time.

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