Job #1 for the Jays is to find out if anything is wrong with Halladay. I've never seen him get beaten up like that twice in a row. He claims he's healthy, and might just be pressing a bit too much.

Since it's pretty clear now that 2007 is going to be a washout, I agree that this is the time to put the young pitchers in the starting rotation. The Jays have been playing for the short term the last couple of years, and haven't had the luxury of giving a young starting pitcher the chance to get beaten up a few times and learn what works and what doesn't. At some point, the Jays need to discover whether McGowan, Marcum or Janssen can actually cut it at the big league level - now is the time.

As I mentioned in another thread, the Jays are paying now for the lack of productivity from their farm system two and three years ago. Back then, the Jays had two middle infield prospects - Adams and Hill - and a bunch of pitchers. None of the pitchers made it, and Adams proved unable to play shortstop. Now, when you look at the Jays, what do you see? Besides the black hole of the bullpen - which is an act of a malevolent Baseball God - the Jays' biggest weaknesses are at shortstop and in the rotation.

When a top prospect doesn't work out, the damage can be felt for years. The Jays are still feeling the effects of the Josh Phelps meltdown - they eventually filled the hole by trading Dave Bush and Gabe Gross for Overbay. I don't regret the trade, but the Jays could use Bush and Gross right now. And the Jays' long-term plan included Adams as the shortstop, not Clayton or McDonald.

The question is whether J.P. could have done a better job of drafting, or whether the Jays' minor league instructors could have done a better job of developing players. I think the instructors are off the hook on this one, as I don't know of too many recent ex-Jay prospects who are doing really well elsewhere. Bush's ERA in Milwaukee is currently 5.73, and Gross is hitting .176. Rosario's ERA in Philly is 6.75. (Did I miss anybody?)

It's hard to evaluate a GM, as so much of what they do happens behind closed doors. I don't know what options were available to him, so I don't know whether he made the best possible choices. But I maintain that the only reason to fire J.P. would be if there is somebody out there who is better at drafting. Otherwise, you're just rearranging the deck chairs on a sinking ship.

Oh, and before I go: I'd leave Hill at second. He's showing wondrous position-specific skills, and the Jays don't have a second baseman coming up behind him that I know of.

I'll hold out a tiny bit of optimism and say the season isn't over yet.

However, it is time to roll the dice: Win or lose with the young guys, who are less predictable but have more of an up side. McGowan, Janssen, and Marcum go into the rotation and stay there as long as they can keep their ERAs under 6. Decide right now: Is Hill's future at short or second? If the former, play him there for the rest of the season, or at least until it becomes obvious he can't handle the position. Ditch Clayton and McDonald, bring up Olmedo and Adams; see if they have any sort of future with the organization. Replace Jason Smith with absolutely anybody. Well, anybody other than Dave Berg.

I don't know if that's the key to winning, but it seems to make winning more likely, or at least make losing more interesting and productive.

At this point, I might be relieved if Doc is mildly sore (like 15 day DL, actual 15 days, not quietly to 60 days and then surprise TJ sore), because seeing him get smacked around like this is really disturbing.  His loses last year came when he gave up one or two little runs and his team didn't hit for him.  I really hope someone is reviewing tape and changing the signs cause this is crazy.

Ryan,

I agree about figuring out where Hill is going to play and then getting him time there now.  If the plan was to keep Glaus at 3B and bring up Adams to play 2B with Hill moving to SS, then why not now?  But Blair mentioned Glaus' name as potential trade bait, and the Philadelphia Daily News reported this morning that a lot of major league scouts have been scouting recent Jays' games.  If Glaus netted a SS, Hill might be best suited to 3B because his range could be a limiting factor at SS, but his strong arm would be well suited to 3B.  We'll have to wait and see how it all pans out over the next few weeks.

Either way, I'm with you.  Get McGowan and Marcum, then eventually Janssen, throwing every 5th day in the rotation.  Let's see what's there for 2008.

Anchoring Hill at 2B (a position he plays exceptionally well) is one of the few things the team has gotten right in the last year. Moving him back to SS would, IMO, simply add to the growing list of fickle and destructive decisions made by the front office.

Hoping that Adams can significantly improve the team is (also IMO) a sign of just how desperate things have become around here. It's sort of like the obsession about Towers' returning to his anomalous 2005 performance level. All signs say it just isn't going to happen, but for some reason it seems impossible to let the dream go.

Moving Hill back and forth would be silly. However, deciding that he's more valuable to the organization playing another position is hardly destructive. (Well, as long as they don't want to make him a catcher.) It didn't seem to hurt Michael Young.

Well I for one am not in favour of brining up Adams right now.  He needs at least half, maybe a full, season at AAA to get his confidence back.

MacGowan and Marcum in the rotation is a good move.  If there's a deal to be made for Glaus, so be it.  But let's not let the panic in the streets of Toronto make all the decisions right now - that's how the Leafs have been run for fourty years (and the Raptors up until this year).  Unless JP can trade Clayton for a closer and above average starter, there's no emergency moves that will save the season.  So the moves should have long-term focus, and those moves can be made as easily on June 11 as on May 11.

On the other hand, maybe the Reds would send us Harang and Encarncion for Glaus?  Nah, not even the Reds....

 

I don't believe that Adams remains in the mix for next year. I would look to players that are actually playing well in the minors as possible infield additions. In my view, those players would be Ray Olmedo and Juan Peralta.

Maybe this is a moot point, but seriously, with all our bullpen troubles, why not bring up a guy who has proven himself at the AAA level over the last few years. 

Yes, FREE GRONK people.  We might just have something in the guy who was our AAA closer, and now for some odd reason is closing down in AA too.  Is there really anything to lose at this point in time?  You might just get lucky.

One of Ricciardi's greatest faults is his lack of patience. He'll make a decision that so-and-so isn't good, doesn't fit the plans, and dump him by whatever means necessary. Then they have success elsewhere, and Ricciardi takes some well-deserved flack. Chad Gaudin, anyone? I'm still not sure if we're supposed to be upset that he traded away Felipe Lopez, since Lopez has sucked, been an All-Star, and been pretty okay since leaving.

So Russ Adams? I dunno. I have faith in him, though obviously some may not. He's not a shortstop, I'll give you that. But everything in his career prior to 2006 says he can be a decent hitting infielder. Even Baseball America, no fan of Ricciardi's drafts, said as much. Maybe he's just a backup, which can still be useful. He has more potential than Jason Smith, John McDonald, and Royce Clayton, that's for sure. Probably more than Ryan Roberts, and certainly more polish than Sergio Santos.

 So why give up on him when there are no clearly superior alternatives? What do the 2007 Blue Jays have to lose by playing him?

I think moving Hill away from 2B is ill advised. He's shown that he plays very well at the position and his bat is + for a second baseman. I think if you move him to SS he's defensively no longer a +, and if you move him to 3rd then the position is now underperforming what it should (you want more power from the infield corners than Hill provides).

Dangling Glaus for tradebait might not be a bad move, perhaps a move with Atlanta for Salty and a pitching prospect.

However on the whole I like Glaus, he is stable at 3B and his bat is ++. Remember that the Jays offensive resurgence last year was in large part due to his protecting Wells in the order. If we lose Glaus we have no real long term plan for a power bat hitting 4 in the lineup.

I agree that the Jays have nothing to lose by jettisoning the crappy bench and retread starters (except possibly money, eating salary). But I think it is very telling when the prime candidates to move up are the likes of Russ Adams and Gronk - fringey major leaguers that don't even qualify as prospects anymore. It is a stark reminder of the pathetic drafting in the JP era, which, at year 6, is well within when we could reasonably expect some results.

My wife, she who by her own admission- knows everything - has the Halladay Dilemma solved. She says he needs Zaun. She says those other "turkeys" don't  call the game, or catch the game "right." Apparently, "turkey," and "right" are technical baseball terms.

She could be correct, she has great perception...after all she married me despite the opposition of her Mother, Father, Brother and her (at that time) current Husband, all of whom, for some reason, were not as enamboured with me as she was. Ya gotta love a woman with taste.

I was just thinking that too, Legs. Zaun disappears and the already shaky rotation gets that much worse. There's so much involved in a catcher's position the fans never get to see. We're seeing the product of the absence of Zaun.

Better get used to it.

Dangling Glaus for tradebait might not be a bad move, perhaps a move with Atlanta for Salty and a pitching prospect.

A catching tandem of Saltamacchia and Sal Fasano? The signage possibilities are endless.

Avail,

Keeping Glaus' bat probably isn't a "long term plan" either.  If I'm not mistaken he has a player option for 2009, so next year would likely be his last in Toronto.  A good long term plan would be to trade him for someone like Andy Laroche.

it is very telling when the prime candidates to move up are the likes of Russ Adams and Gronk - fringey major leaguers that don't even qualify as prospects anymore. It is a stark reminder of the pathetic drafting in the JP era, which, at year 6, is well within when we could reasonably expect some results.

Last year, Chad Gaudin was pretty much a "fringey" minor leaguer. Plenty of players have "fringey" starts to their careers - remember last off season, when many people were adamant that the Jays could not compete with Alex Rios in right field?

As far as the farm system goes, take a look at where things were in 2001, when Ricciardi took over: Rios was flailing away at Low-A to the tune of 263/296/354. Miguel Negron was just as bad at a lower level. Vernon Wells  was just okay in his second tour at AAA (281/333/453). Escobar, Carpenter, and Halladay were all good, but coming off bad-to-terrible seasons in 2000. Michael Young had been traded, but was still mediocre in Texas (249/298/402). Lopez and Izturis were playing all right, but being rushed through the system even though they were still quite raw. Gord Ash's last first-round pick was a college outfielder. McGowan and League weren't on anyone's radar.

Obviously there were a lot of very good players, but it was only 3-4 years later that most of them blossomed. So what's in the system now? Who can say for sure? How does Ricciardi's drafting look if it turns out that Janssen and Marcum  are average or better starters, Adam Lind is a productive (if not yet superb) outfielder, and Aaron Hll continues to put up an .800+ OPS? Not all of those things will happen, but none of them is particularly improbable. It's too early to be sure, but what if David Purcey's improvements to his control are for real?

I'm not sure if Ricciardi has drafted any superstars - I'll wait until Travis Snider at least gets to Dunedin to make that proclamation - but too many people, including GMs, want to write players off as soon as they stumble.

If J P's demise is imminent as some are suggesting then I think it behooves(someone strike me about the head and face,I used behoove in a sentence)Ted Rogers on his next GM hiring to screen his applicant for a modicum of integrity and honesty that seems lacking in his present one.

Something akin to an I Q test but slanted to include questions to trip up and weed out integrity deficiences in said applicant that may come to light down the road.

Maybe a question like......Elbow is to Back as (a)Pain is to Doctor (b)Moon is to Sun (c)Lie is to Pinnochio (d)Radler is to Black

or  Lie is to Consequence as (a)Wind is to hurricane(b)Sin is to Sinner (c)Misdirection is to Direction (d)Crime is to prison

It sure will be an interesting media scrum when a pitcher........let's use Halliday as an example,actually does indeed hurt his back............Scribe "So J P what's wrong with Doc?"

J P "He's on the 15 day D L with a back strain"

Scribe"So he has hurt is elbow,is that what your saying?"

J P "No ...really he hurt his back"

Scribe"Will he need elbow surgery?"

J P "Read my lips,he hurt his ****ing back OK"

Scribe"If it's not his elbow then what,a knee......will he need knee surgery,is that what your saying?"

J P,red faced and screaming at the scribe,sounding very much like Nicholson "you can't handle the truth" and storms off.

There's a thread over at BTF.

I think it will be very hard for management to switch into fire sale mode. The team was built to win in 2007 and 2008. After '08, we could lose Burnett and Glaus to free agency, Thomas will be gone (or completely ineffective), Halladay will be 32, and Zaun will be going, going...

The organization lacks player depth, so trades will in most cases involve robbing Peter to pay Paul. If you trade Glaus--say, for a shortstop or starting pitcher--then you need a new third baseman. And so on. On the other hand, most of the superfluous players on the team--Ohka, Towers, Clayton, etc--won't bring much in return.

Trading away major assets like Glaus is also hard, I think, because it would mark a return to exactly the situation that we had five years ago (when Ricciardi promised to jettison overpriced talent and rebuild from within). Current management has too much invested in the idea that the team is gradually evolving into a solid contender (through drafts, trades, and free agent signings).

Regarding Aaron Hill

JP oscillated all off-season as to whether Hill was or wasn't a big league SS.  Given that:

We've got nothing coming up at SS through the minors;

SS's are damn expensive to buy on the FA market;

Hill looks like he can play at least an adequate big league SS; and

2nd baseman were the best bargain in baseball last off-season and will likely be undervalued again heading into next year. 

Why isn't Hill playing SS?  Saying he's a perfectly good 2nd baseman doesn't take into account the above factors.  The only issue in my view is whether he is in fact capable of playing an adequate defensive SS at the big league level. 

Last year, Chad Gaudin was pretty much a "fringey" minor leaguer. Plenty of players have "fringey" starts to their careers - remember last off season, when many people were adamant that the Jays could not compete with Alex Rios in right field?

At that time though, Gaudin and Rios were both younger players with higher perceived ceilings than the likes of Gronk and Adams though - I don't think this is a very fair comparison. A hard-throwing 22 year old pitcher with command issues and an outfielder with all kinds of natural tools vs. a 29 year-old AAA closer and a defensively-challenged middle infielder with no position and marginal hitting skills.

Obviously there were a lot of very good players, but it was only 3-4 years later that most of them blossomed. So what's in the system now? Who can say for sure?

I guess we just have different levels of expectation. I expect that when a GM comes in with promises of improvement through the draft via focus on college players, that we would see more than a single impact bat (Hill) in the majors at this point. You are right that there will be probably be a few more, eventually. This may simply be because of sheer numbers, blind squirrel finding a nut. But I think you would agree the system has precious few impact bats or pitching prospects at the moment - 6+ years after the current GM came in. How long do we wait before we can grade him on player development?

Dangling Glaus for tradebait might not be a bad move, perhaps a move with Atlanta for Salty and a pitching prospect.

Where the heck is Atlanta going to put Troy Glaus? He's never played an inning of first base in his life.

I have no problem with Ricciardi's draft history.  It's too early to judge his picks, but he's already had some success.  Some notables from each year:

2002
Adams - 1st - May yet be a usable 2B
Bush - 2nd - Helped get Overbay
Peterson - 4th - Indirectly got Accardo

2003
Hill - 1st - A solid middle infielder who's showing signs that his power may improve
Marcum - 3rd - 4.47 ERA in 14 starts in the AL East last year, can still improve
Vermilyea - 9th - Contributing in the bullpen

2004 (Probably Ricciardi's best draft so far)
Jackson - 1st - Helped get Overbay
Purcey - 1st - Showing signs this year that he could be a front-of-the-rotation starter
Thigpen - 2nd - Great plate discipline in AAA, will probably be catching in Toronto this year
Lind - 3rd - Going to be a solid bat in the majors, not bad for a 3rd round pick
Janssen - 4th - ERA under 2.00 in the bullpen, likely to be starting soon
Litsch - 24th - Dominating in AA

2005
Romero - 1st - If he can stay healthy he's as safe a bet as any to be a solid starter in the majors
Pettway - 3rd - Having a good year so far
Patterson - 4th - Showed good power last year

2006
Snider - 1st - Looks like a future superstar, but it's too early to tell

There are any number of players who could turn out to be superstars, and some "sure things" may flop.  It really is too early to tell, but I think Ricciardi's done a decent job so far in the drafts.

Impact players - particularly of the sure-thing variety - don't grow on trees. You get them a) by being very, very good, b) by having a top-five draft pick (at least, or c) by being lucky.

I don't think Ricciardi is in the elite. LA, Anaheim, Atlanta, and probably a couple others are clearly the class of MLB. But I don't think he's among the worst, either. He's pretty middle-of-the-pack right now, though he could move up or down easily enough.

If J P's demise is imminent as some are suggesting

I'd be shocked if Ricciardi was fired any time soon.  I get the impression that the powers that be are fully in his court.

Whether he deserves to be fired is another issue.  The Red Sox and Yankees both are better now, both have more resources (and will continue to), and each have a better farm system.  The Devil Rays are closing in fast.  If you had the chance to trade the entire Blue Jay organization for the entire Devil Ray organization today wouldn't you do it?

Look at the team at the beginning of the year - with the exception of Aaron Hill every other starter (starting pitchers and position players) was either a free agents, a part of the last regime, or acquired in trades.  I don't know if the drafting isn't good enough or the player development isn't good enough but the Jays aren't graduating enough contributing players to the majors right now.

If you were hiring a GM today to lead the Jays to the playoffs would Ricciardi be the first person you wanted to do it (among those available)?  If the answer isn't 'yes' shouldn't you be looking for a replacement?

It's hard to argue that Ricciardi is anything more than an adequate GM and it takes a lot more than being adequate to reach the playoffs in the AL East.  I can't say I have a lot of faith in Ricciardi to get the job done right now.

He's never played an inning of first base in his life.

All Star game!  Remember, it counts!

If it hasn't been posted yet, Blair's mailbag is up:

http://www.globesports.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070511.wsptblair11/GSStory/GlobeSportsBaseball/home/?pageRequested=all

I'm kind of having issues with how sanguine Blair sounds about the Jays' current horrid situation and weak prospects.  Blair obviously relies on access for being less pundit-like than the Griffins and Elliots of the world, and even says so in the link above: "I'm reasonably comfortable with the way I develop relationships with the people I cover. I like my track record."

I guess he's happy being one of the JP loyalists then.  Because the fact is, any Blue Jay reporter who Glaus-es (sorry) over the fact that JP hasn't made one free agent signing or trade that has propelled the Jays into playoff contention, is doing fans a disservice (Lilly and Speier, his only wins, gave us 3 de facto 3rd place years).  Colangelo made about, oh, 4 winning trades last year for the Raptors.  But I guess that's why Colangelo will win Executive of the Year next week and JP will be lucky to last his term.  I guess us Toronto fans should feel lucky ourselves that one of the three major sports in this town is well -managed.  Sigh.

It's hard to argue that Ricciardi is anything more than an adequate GM and it takes a lot more than being adequate to reach the playoffs in the AL East. I can't say I have a lot of faith in Ricciardi to get the job done right now. Agreed - it might be useful to compare timpinder's list above with one from an intra-division rival over the same time period. The Red Sox come to mind - off the top of my head, the likes of Papelbon, Lester, Buchholz, Lester etc., seem like a strong group of recent picks but I don't know enough about their system to comment beyond that.

Squiggy,

Just check out any team's official MLB web page, scroll under "Roster", and click on "Draft History".

As for Boston, I'm not overly impressed.  Lester in 2002 (not in the majors), Murton and definitely Papelbon (4th round steal) in 2003, Pedroia in 2004, and of their five 1st round picks in 2005, Buchholz and Hansen have potential, but of course so do Purcey, Romero and Snider.

Only time will tell.  I just think it's unrealistic for anyone to expect all of Ricciardi's picks to be great right now.  Maybe we'll come back to this in a couple years if Purcey and Romero are pitching like aces behind Halladay and some combination of Marcum/Janssen/Litsch are among the best back-of-the-rotation starters in the league, Lind is coming off a 30 homerun season, and Snider is about to win rookie of the year.  Of course they could all flop too.  And that's just it.  It's too early to tell.  But I certainly don't think Ricciardi's been incompetent.

I think DePodesta would be a suitable replacement for JP.  I really think he got a raw deal in LA.

He might actually deliver on some of the moneyball goods we were promised when we bought the JP mantra.

I'm a big fan of everything I hear about Antonelli in Cleveland. He'd be on my short list of replacements, for sure.

However, I think we agree this point is moot, as JP's job looks relatively secure for this year and next and Gibbons will go before he does, anyway.

How do teams like the A's and Twins contend year after year with such a small payroll?
Is it because they don't play in the same division as the Yanks and Red Sox?

Has Ted Rogers handcuffed JP by not giving him a similar payroll as the Red Sox?

Doc, appendicitis?  That's the rumour according to Campbell.

The only issue in my view is whether [Hill] is in fact capable of playing an adequate defensive SS at the big league level.

In your view? It's the only issue, period. And off the evidence of his performance at shortstop last year, the answer is a pretty resounding NO.  He was better than Glaus, but he was not major league quality. And Hill is a very good second baseman. Roberto Alomar got tried at shortstop (not by the Jays), and that didn't work either.

 Moving players  from a position they can play well to a more demanding defensive position almost never works, although it's a fabulous strategy in table games or fantasy leagues. They do persist in trying to make it work in the real world as well.....

Magpie, JP himself seemed to equivocate on the Hill as a big league SS issue himself this offseason.

I can't pretend to have the knowledge to make a statement on his big league bona fides as SS but defer to JP and others. Thoughts?