Hmm, I don't know -- is Smoltz really a slamdunk HOFer? Oh, don't get me wrong -- I think he should get in, but if he ends up with about 230 career wins or so, which seems likely, will that little, admittedly brilliant, escapade as a closer hurt or help his chances?

Maddux, yes. Glavine, yes. Avery, of course not. Smoltz? On the bubble?

Again, don't try to convince me he should get in. I agree. I'm just not sure it's a cinch.

At this point I'd rather see Marcum and Janssen in the rotation instead of Ohka and Zambrano.  They can be just as 'effective' and there's a chance that they could be turn out to be good starters.

I don't get why they're sticking with Zambrano.  He hasn't done anything in 6 weeks to make you think he'd be an effective starter right now.

Mick took the words right out of my mouth.  With 2006 under his belt, Smoltz would be an easy Hall of Famer for me, but I just don't know about how the voters will see it.  The 90s were really the golden age of starting pitchers- Pedro, Clemens, Johnson, Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, Schilling, Kevin Brown.  The first four are arguably among the top 10 players to ever heave a horsehide, and it will be easy for a few of  the excellent second tier to get lost in the shuffle.

I think Smoltz is a lock.

Eckersley  197 wins, 390 saves, 116 ERA+
Smoltz 197 wins, 154 saves, 126 ERA+

Smoltz will probably end up with 30 or 40 more wins (important for HOF voters) and a significantly better ERA+.

If he hadn't closed for a number of years he would probably be doing a Glavine (coasting to 300 wins) 2 or 3 years from now.

Oh yeah, and the fact that Blyleven isn't in is a travesty.

Marcum and Janssen to the rotation, Olmedo and Lydon called up, Jason Smith and Zambrano shipped out or down.  Six man bullpen.  There, I feel better.

If Smoltz didn't close he'd probably have another 40 wins, so he'd still have a good distance to 300.  Of course, if he did start he might not have held up and have less than those 40.

Smoltz's case is enhanced by his playoff appearances - 207 innings of 2.65 ERA - and he passes the smell test.  I think he'll get in pretty easily, and think he'd get in if he retired today.

I concur.

Not that it's going to happen. Hell, Gibb used practically everyone in the bullpen last night, when a couple of guys would have sufficed after Zambrano self-destructed. I think it highly unlikely that they go with a six-man bullpen any time soon.

I think Towers should come back to the rotation, where he was _moderately_ effective (as opposed to other options in the rotation, and as opposed to his stint in the bullpen where he has, to this point, been decidedly ineffective). Keep Janssen in the bullpen, so he can help stabilize things until Ryan gets back.

Time to admit that the Zambrano move to the rotation (displacing Towers) was a failure, and move on.

Marcum and Janssen to the rotation, Olmedo and Lydon called up, Jason Smith and Zambrano shipped out or down.  Six man bullpen.  There, I feel better.

...and Santos and Patterson to AAA??  Probably won't happen, but Patterson was really impressing the Jays at ST prior to his injury, wasn't he?

...and Gio Gonzalez and John Thomson are other reasons why it won't happen.  Gio is a FA come July 1, without a callup, isn't he??

Marcum threw 23 pitches on May 3 and 39 pitches last night (May 8).  He could probably start on May 13 and throw 60 pitches.

This doesn't seem fair to Zambrano.  He threw 5 innings in April and then gets two starts in May to show he belongs??  If we weren't such a train wreck right now, I'd definitely be in favour of giving him another start or two.  That said, we're a train wreck right now.

It is certainly rare for an organization to publicly admit that they dropped the ball.  The handling of Zambrano this spring would definitely be an appropriate occasion for a mea culpa. 

Zambrano and Smith down, Olmedo and Gonzalez up, Marcum in the rotation and JP on the phone to Coletti and Shapiro about Wilson Betemit and Jason Davis.

Geremi's value is short-term only. But he and JT could capably pick up McGowan and Marcum, should either need it. And after last night, I'd think that Zambrano could safely be removed from the 40-man without being claimed. Smith, too. Forget the Rule 5 designation: it's not like the Cubs wouldn't let us keep him (see Theriot, Ryan). As for Marcum, remember the 4.72 ERA he put up in 14 starts as a rookie last year? That'd be the second-best number on our staff right now.

If the Jays really are committed to Zambrano, I'm guessing it's only for one more (bad) start. Can't imagine Thomson not being recalled if Zams gets rocked again. Here's hoping we'll never know.

No, it is certainly rare for THIS organization to publicly admit that they dropped the ball.  In spite of what they can see right in front of them, Blue Jay management refuses to admit the obvious.  I'd send Zambrano down to start regularly and bring up Thomson so JP's gamble with the trifecta of mediocrity can be completed.

As far as Smoltz for HOF, I know he closed for a few years, but I think he'll need to make 250 wins for consideration.

Isn't Zambrano under a year out from TJ? Why are they expecting him to be good? Because he says he's ready?  Are they doing this just to be stubborn?  Stop giving up three run homeruns with two outs!!!!

Frasor is making me sad.  He is pitching like a scared boy.  What the hell are they doing to him?  I half-expected to see him curled up on the mound in the fetal position, twitching. 

Janssen, on the other hand, showed some moxy.  I liked the inside pitch to Lugo to re-claim the plate.  And the plunking of Youkilis (intentional or not.  Whatever) was all kinds of awesome.  He pitches with a lot of forward momentum.  Add my voice to the ever-growing Janssen in rotation chorus.

 

As far as Smoltz for HOF, I know he closed for a few years, but I think he'll need to make 250 wins for consideration.

Meanwhile probably 4-5 players are going to hit the 500 HR plateau this year making them shoe-ins for the HOF.  Of course, we can't even reconsider the possibility that we are just expecting far far too much in terms of wins.  That being said, Smoltz is an HOFer in my opinion.

Of course, we can't even reconsider the possibility that we are just expecting far far too much in terms of wins.

Absolutely right. And isn't it weird that this bar gets raised as everybody switches to a five man rotation, and starters are limited to 32-33 starts a season? What's up with that? Don Drysdale and Catfish Hunter both started 40 games a year more than once, and Smoltz, despite losing a year to surgery and three years to closing, will probably pass Drysdale this year and Hunter next year.

Of course if the Dodgers and A's had used a five man rotation, Drysdale and Hunter might have lasted a whole lot longer than they actually did. Catfish won just 23 games after his age 30 season, and Drysdale just 19.

Somebody explain to me why wins are are relevant at all.  Last time I checked the starting pitcher had no control over how many runs his offense scored.  +/- 50 wins are entirely possible depending on what team or teams you pitched for throughout your career.

To me there are only 2 relevant stats for starting pitchers.  IP and ERA (actually ERA+)  Everything else like WHIP, K/9, K/BB,  OBA, and Wins are just window dressing.

Pitch 2500 innings with an ERA+ of 125 and you are a hall of famer in my books regardless of how many games you "won"   The whole Jack Morris theory of pitching well enough to win is a load of bunk.

The whole Jack Morris theory of pitching well enough to win is a load of bunk.

It's not quite a load of bunk - a long long time ago, I examined Morris' career in a fair bit of depth (I was comparing him and Stieb) and to my slight surprise I actually did find some indications that there really was something to this notion. There really did appear to be some evidence that Morris actually raised his game when necessary (like when his team scored just one or two runs for him.) As far as easing off the throttle with a big lead goes, I didn't see it but it wouldn't have been visible from the type of data I was looking at anyway.

Someday I actually want to take a close look at Lamarr Hoyt... hang on, I mean I want to take a close look at Hoyt's individual starts in 1983 and 1984. I don't particularly want to look at him. I remember the guy.

That said, I absolutely agree that for the most part way, way too much is made of it.

Somebody explain to me why ERA is relevant at all. Last time I checked, the starting pitcher had no control over how well his defense played or how the official scorer sees things. +/- 5 runs per game are entirely possible.

The whole David Cameron theory is right on.

Over a career, ERA+, or even better RA+, tells us more about a pitcher, in my view, than FIP or batted ball data.  Some pitchers control the running game better than others. Some pitch better with runners on base.  Not all pitchers have the same run value per groundball or flyball. 

It is easier and more accurate to work for the runs allowed, and adjust for defence and bullpen support, than to work from career FIP or batted ball data. Different considerations apply when one is evaluating a season or two rather than a career.

Some interesting stuff there.  Still, the bottom line is runs allowed.  Over a small sample size a pitcher's ERA might be inflated or deflated by factors like fielding and BABPIP.

However, over a sample of hundreds of innings those factors tend to normalize and it comes down to giving your team the best chance to win by allowing as few runs as possible.

A little bit off topic, but I don't think it's fair when a starter leaves a runner on first with two out and the run is charged to him if that base runner scores.  I know there is a rule for charging walks when a pitcher is replaced during an at bat, and I think there should be similar rules for inherited runners.

Janssen is looking special this year - and I would love to see him in the rotation too..

The only problem is that if he goes in the rotation, then the bullpen gets even worse!

If and when Ryan and League come back healthy though, I hope they try Janssen, McGowan and Marcum/Chacin as 3 - 4 - 5. 

Hey, who knows....in 2008 those three might make up a pretty good back end of the rotation.  There's potential at least.

the bottom line is runs allowed.

Well.... the true bottom line for any player is doing whatever helps your team win. Obviously, for a pitcher, not allowing runs is a Pretty Large Part of that job. It's not the answer you'd get from Jack Morris (or from Roy Halladay, for that matter - Doc really is a throwback, you know.)

Job One is helping the team win. And absolutely, not allowing runs is a very large part of job one, but it's not Job One itself. Morris regarded pitchers who came out after 7 innings with a 6-1 lead as guys who were looking out for their own numbers, not necessarily giving the team what the team needed. He wasn't completely full of it.

A little, sure. But not completely.

Morris regarded pitchers who came out after 7 innings with a 6-1 lead as guys who were looking out for their own numbers, not necessarily giving the team what the team needed.

Can we get one of those? 

Can we get one of those?

You also need a team that can score six runs in a game... searching... searching....

The fact that Jannsen has only struck out about 5% of the batters he's faced is reason enough for me to say he should not be in the rotation. While yes, batters are getting out, a pitcher cannot continue to have success while not missing any bats, as we saw with Jannsen last season.

Seamus,

I know the bullpen would be weakened further if Janssen and/or Marcum were moved into the rotation, but isn't it logical to give your best pitchers the most innings?  Typically starters throw more innings than relievers.  Janssen can't really help the Jays throwing a single inning when the Jays are already down 8-1, but maybe if he started last night it would be 1-1 in the 7th, and the Jays would at least have a chance.  I don't know, that's just how I see it.

Jack Morris did retire to Wyoming.  Maybe it was to raise him a herd of dental floss. 

Morris went 21-6 with the 92 Blue Jays, completing 6 of 34 games started. The Jays gave him 5 and 1/2 runs per game support, and Ward and Henke backing him up.  When he really did the job of completing games in '82 and '83, he won at about the same rate as the Tigers did as a club.  In his other big year, 1986, the Tigers scored 6 runs or more for him in 15 of his 35 starts and were in double digits 5 freakin' times.

It's true that some starters make more effective use of their run support than others over their careers, but the margins are pretty modest and mostly the difference in W-L records relate to the amount of the run support, rather than the pitcher's efficiency in using it.

I'm not a huge fan of Zambrano's, but the sample size here is small. He's only pitched 10 2/3 innings. Mind you, those are some really ugly innings.

It could all have gone much better: Zambrano gave up seven runs in the second and third after getting the first two batters out in each inning. And the radio commentators were noting how much more quickly Zambrano was working yesterday.

I was thinking about the Jays and their problems this morning, and I realized something: two of their biggest holes are their starting pitching and the shortstop position. Three years ago, the team had several starting pitching prospects and two shortstop prospects. None of the starting pitchers have made it to the rotation, and Adams, the #1 shortstop prospect, also stalled.

What I'm wondering is this: could this have been foreseen? Did J.P. draft poorly? Did the minor league coaching staffs not do a good job of development? Or is this all just plain old bad luck? (Years ago, I jokingly contended that J.P. Ricciardi's greatest weakness as a general manager was that he was just not lucky enough. Perhaps this is still the case.)

As for the bullpen: you have to expect problems when the team's #1 and #2 relief pitchers both go down with injuries. I wonder whether Ryan's elbow problems are a direct result of being used for many 2-inning stints last year. Arm overuse often takes a year to emerge - look at Jimmy Key's career, for example - so Ryan may be paying this year for Gibbons' lack of trust in his other relievers last year. And, with the benefit of hindsight, it was probably unrealistic to expect too much from League.

Just for fun, here's two sets of pitching lines that are interesting to look at:

           W- L    ERA    BA   G GS CG GF SH SV   IP    H   R  ER HR  BB  SO
Player A   1- 3   5.46  .298   6  4  0  1  0  0  28.0  34  23  17  6   5  25
Player B   3- 2   5.45  .241   6  6  0  0  0  0  38.0  35  23  23  2  15  39

Player A is our very own Josh Towers. Player B is Dice-K, who cost the Red Sox approximately one squillion jillion dollars. I'm not sure what the point of this is, other than that perhaps the Jays gave up on Josh too soon. (Or perhaps he should go to Japan. One or the other.)

All of this talk about missing Ryan and League.

League was just as big a disappointment as McGowan until very recently.  I'm not 100% convinced that he right now would be a lights out 8th inning guy like Zumaya (before his injury) and Broxton.

I think the team misses Ryan a lot, and Johnson a little bit, but to always have League mentioned in these discussions is being a little bit presumptuous IMO.

Maybe it was to raise him a herd of dental floss.

But surely he should have repaired to Montana in that case....

I suppose it's the Morris attitude (it's about the team winning and not the player's numbers) that I especially approve of.

But I went back to look at all the numbers I dug up for the old Dave Stieb epic. Over the eleven seasons (1980-1990), Stieb had an ERA of 3.30, while Morris was 3.74. But given just one or two runs to work with, Morris shaved his ERA enough to actually be better than Stieb in both instances (3.40 to 3.46, 3.53 to 3.69). That notwithstanding, Stieb actually had a better W-L record in those circumstances.  Go figure.

Morris' two worst ERA by run support numbers came when he received 7 or 8+ runs to work with. Stieb's two worst were when he had 0 runs (when it doesn't matter at all) and when he had 2 runs (when it matters a great deal.) In the case of these two pitchers, there really was a much wider performance fluctuation (from Morris, not at all from Stieb) when you divide the starts by Run Support.

I do think he wasn't completely full of it!

I could be wrong here, but lowering your ERA by 5% doesn't seem like a significant thing to me.  That could be a random thing as opposed to an actual difference in pitching style.

As far pitching into the 8th inning with a 6-1 lead and not worrying about personal stats, well, so what.  So he went out in the 8th inning a few times and threw the ball down the middle to make sure the batter put the ball in play.  That doesn't make him any kind of extra special team player as far as I'm concerned.

I actually kind of find the whole team vs individual propaganda a little bit funny.  Baseball really isn't a team sport like hockey or football.  If you as an individual do well, your team as a whole does better.  When a batter goes up to the plate it is a very individual thing.  When Jason Frasor is melting down out on the mound there is no team to help him like an offensive line can help a running back in football.

I think that given a choice between doubling their salary or winning the world series the vast majority of players (making reasonable amounts of money) would go for the money and financial security for their family over winning a ring.

Bullpen = bad.

Bullpen minus Janssen = I don't wanna talk about it...

Bullpen minus Janssen & Marcum = Can we change the subject?

The scary thing about the bullpen is that while Accardo and Downs have been great, they really haven't pitched in very many high leverage situations that contributed greatly to victories.

Now that they are going to be asked to be THE key guys, who knows how they will perform.  (see Frasor)

It seems to me that Janssen had a very crisp fastball at the beginning of the year, but over his past half dozen appearances he's been very hittable.  A lot of balls have been hit very hard right at fielders, and there's also the very low strikeout rate that others have mentioned.

If I was to guess I'd say that at this point Marcum is more likely to have success as a starter than Janssen.  I sure hope that McGowan gets to make at least 8 or 10 starts against offenses other than Cleveland, Boston, and New York to see what we have with him at the moment.

I've watched John Thomson pitch a few times, and I hope I'm wrong, but I really don't think he's the answer.  His stuff is marginally better than Ohka's, but it's really nothing to write home about.

I think that given a choice between doubling their salary or winning the world series the vast majority of players (making reasonable amounts of money) would go for the money and financial security for their family over winning a ring.

I'm sure financial security is important, but the ring is it.  Once they have made it to the show,  the World Series is the dream.  These boys are fiercely competitive and very proud. You can see it in their faces, the way they carry themselves.  For some it might be for the money, but not the vast majority. 

It's certainly true that a starting pitcher regarding it as his Duty to complete his starts nowadays is only slightly more helpful than his having nice handwriting. If you're carrying seven relief pitchers, it doesn't matter a whole lot.

But Morris began his career in the era of the nine man pitching staff - it mattered a lot more then. Morris pitched 20 complete games in one season (1983) - Halladay, with 26, is the only man on the Jays staff with that many CGs in his career (Burnett has 16, Thomson 10, Ohka 5, Towers 4, Zambrano 1, Downs 1, and everyone else combines for 0.)

And I am off to the ball park! Gotta play it, might as well win it.

In other words, it may not matter now but there was a time when it mattered a great deal and pitchers were actually judged by it. In 1961, Whitey Ford went 25-4, 2.83 and won the Cy Young Award. He also had to endure all kinds of gibes because he only completed 11 of his starts, some of which he went along with ("I'm going to speak for seven minutes, and then Luis Arroyo will finish up for me.") and some of which much have been irritating to a man who made 39 starts and pitched 283 innings.

And now I really am off!

Geremi Gonzalez was just signed by the Yomiuri Giants.

The Yomiuri Giants on Wednesday signed 32-year-old pitcher Geremi Gonzalez for the remainder of the season.

The right-hander, whose career record is 30-35 in the majors, is scheduled to arrive in Japan next week.

Gonzalez made five starts with Toronto's Triple-A team in Syracuse this season and was 2-1

Did they post $52m?

Hey, our bullpen isn't so bad. We have 2 guys with a 0.00 ERA and a 3rd guy who was demoted despite a 0.00 ERA.

Of course, the fact these guys are Downs (mainly used vs lefties), Accardo (used in just 3 games the Jays won vs 9 they lost, always when the Jays allowed 4 or more runs), and Vermilyea (given just one game, 3 IP 3 H 0 BB 1 SO) says a lot about how this team is being run.

So, our 4 more effective relievers based on ERA (4 with ERA's of 1.10 or less vs the 6 with 5+ ERA's in the pen) have a total of 43 1/3 IP out of the pen's 93 IP.

Holds - big 4 = 8, ugly 6 = 4
Blown saves - big 4 = 1 (Janssen), ugly 6 = 5 (Marcum, Frasor 2, Ryan 2)
Saves - big 4 = 1, ugly 6 = 6 (3 by Ryan)

Thus, given a shot with a lead of 3 runs or less...
Big 4 = 10 -> 9 good vs 1 bad (90% success)
Ugly 6 = 15 -> 10 good, 5 bad (67% success)
Ugly 5 = 10 -> 7 good, 3 bad (70% success)

Hard to blame Gibbons for Ryan, although JP should get a kick in the butt over it.

What does this mean? To me it shows that the manager has had trouble identifying who is good and who is not in his pen thus far and when to use or not use them. Just 1 save for the 4 guys who have pitched well vs 3 for the not so good not named Ryan doesn't look good on him.

Until the end of April using Frasor made sense (2 runs allowed pre April 28th) but since he has looked lost out there (4 games, runs allowed in 3, all 4 were lost with Frasor being clearly a big part of 2 of those losses). Why is this? April 14th is when Ryan went down for the count and Frasor seemed OK in 3 of his next 4 games.

I keep thinking the pitching coach or manager has a problem running the pen (depending on who is in control of it at the moment). We have solid players there (I like Accardo, Downs has been good before, Janssen and Marcum are top prospects, Frasor was good at times before) but they seem lost as to who will be used when and how. The pen's ERA is lower today than last year (3.87 vs 3.98) but have looked far worse and had worse results (W-L-Sv-Hld of 2-7-7-12 vs 26-13-42-87).

Eh, some of this might just be the frustrated fan thing though. The starters ERA is 5.21, just under 6 IP per game, Halladay solid, Towers/AJ/Ohka/Chacin mediocre (4.70 to 5.60 ERA's), McGowan and Zambrano sucking. Again, a selection of who you have issue that has been beatten to death here.

FYI: The teams OPS is 769 vs opponents 756. The Jays OBP is 333 vs opponents 328, Slg at 436 vs 428 yet the Jays have scored 8 fewer runs. Stuff like that makes one think bad luck has been part of it, mixed with poor choices of who to put in what slot. This team should be around 500, not 400. Based on 3rd order wins at Baseball Prospectus (tries to take all luck out of the equation) the Jays should be 17-15 at which point we'd all be 'sucks to have the Red Sox/Yankees in this division but we still have a shot'. The loss of 4.1 wins is the biggest in the majors. On the flip side the Brewers are the luckiest at 4.0 extra wins.

So, what is the over/under on Gibbons being let go unless a winning streak comes along? I'm betting on May 17th if they don't stop the losing streak, June 14th if the Jays win a few this upcoming week but keep losing overall (just before a series vs Washington which would give the new guy a leg up, possibly right after Bonds sets the record vs the Jays in SF).

Movin' to Montana soon ... yippie tye-o-tye yay

I've been a Jays fan since the very beginning.  I was in high school the first year, and have been a big fan for the past 30 years.  The Expos were my first love, but over time the two teams became 1 and 1A.

It pains me to say this, but I hope the Jays lose tonight and then tomorrow night.  This is the first time I have even come close to feeling this way.

Two main reasons.

1.  The sooner the Jays are out of the race the sooner we will see young guys in the rotation and dead wood like Ohka and Clayton on the way out of town.  Overall this will benefit the team down the road.

2.  I have really grown to dislike Ricchiardi (both as a person and as a GM) and I very badly want to see him fail.  I'm kind of neutral on Gibbons, but I won't lose any sleep if he gets fired either.

So there you have it.  I've gone beyond striking to cheering for the opposition. 

My vote for quote of the year from a baseball player so far this season:

"I've got no excuses. He stuck it up my ass," Thomas said, nearly spitting with frustration."

On facing Josh Beckett.  

 

I could be wrong here, but lowering your ERA by 5% doesn't seem like a significant thing to me.  That could be a random thing as opposed to an actual difference in pitching style.

I agree that such splits occurring in the course of a single season simply scream Small Sample Size.  But 11 seasons worth of information seems a little more meaningful - almost every separate split represents a minimum of 34 starts, sometimes more than 70; they cover at least  200 IP, sometimes more than 400.. They're as significant as a season, in other words.

And in the "season" that the Tigers scored just 1 run a game for Morris, his ERA was a full run better than in the more than two "seasons" when they scored seven or more.. It really happened. It very well might be a fluke, it very well could  be random, but it's still a pretty significant fluke covering quite a lot of random innings. And it's drastically different from the Stieb's pattern.

I'm reading the PreGame notes. This is in fact the fourth time in MLB history that two Japanese born pitchers have started against each other.  It's the first one that doesn't involve Mac Suzuki, who was the losing pitcher the first three times - beaten by Irabu, Nomo, and Ohka.

According to Sam Cosentino (am I the only one who finds him annoying and superfluous) Dice-K has a lower ERA with the bases empty than with runners on base.  Huh?  Maybe I'm dumb, but I don't understand that.

And if it does make sense, isn't it like saying the Jays win games when they score more runs than their opposition?

On a positive note, I've decided that I enjoy Rance much more than Pat and a bit more than Darren.  I realize that this isn't exactly high praise.

I have the MiLB.com minor league package and have watched probably 30 or 40 different AAA pitchers this year.  I can safely say that 80% of them have better stuff than Tomo Ohka.

He'll probably rattle off 6 shutout innings now, but what he was throwing in the first inning was not major league caliber in any way shape or form.

I'd like to propose a trade ....

JP Ricciardi for Mark Shapiro.

According to Sam Cosentino (am I the only one who finds him annoying and superfluous) Dice-K has a lower ERA with the bases empty than with runners on base.  Huh?  Maybe I'm dumb, but I don't understand that.

Utterly nonsensical stat. It doesn't get much worse than that.

What ever happened to the massive stockpile of good pitching prospects/young arms the Jays had in the system?

I still remember a fan complaining on a WWJP about 2 years ago and JP/Wilner listed: League, Bush, McGowan, Purcey, Jackson, Chacin, Marcum, Banks, Gaudin, and Vermilyea. JP even said McGowan was going to be a 1A pitcher behind Doc in the rotation.

While it's still early to judge some of the draft picks, does anybody feel like JP has out-performed Gord Ash in terms of drafting? Are any of JP's picks going to be just as good if not better than Doc and Vernon Wells?

Hey! A scoreless inning from a Jays starter! Been a while.

Ohka's thrown 71 pitches through 3 IP, so get ready for Josh.

Not yet. But Soon.

Josh has electric stuff in comparison with the slop that Ohka is dishing out right now.

(Years ago, I jokingly contended that J.P. Ricciardi's greatest weakness as a general manager was that he was just not lucky enough. Perhaps this is still the case.)

No, I'm pretty sure there are other, more glaring, weakness.

What ever happened to the massive stockpile of good pitching prospects/young arms the Jays had in the system?

I still remember a fan complaining on a WWJP about 2 years ago and JP/Wilner listed: League, Bush, McGowan, Purcey, Jackson, Chacin, Marcum, Banks, Gaudin, and Vermilyea.

What happened is what typically happens with a bunch of pitching PROSPECTS. Some of them become major league caliber (Bush, Marcum, Gaudin) , some get hurt (McGowan, League), most never develop.

O-Dog hit his 5th homer, and Randy Johnson has 9 strikeouts while throwing a 3 hit shutout through 5 innings at the Phils tonight.  Josh Byrnes isn't chopped liver either...

According to Sam Cosentino (am I the only one who finds him annoying and superfluous) Dice-K has a lower ERA with the bases empty than with runners on base.  Huh?  Maybe I'm dumb, but I don't understand that.

I think the point is supposed to be that he pitches better with the bases empty than with runners on.  The talk recently was that when he pitched from the stretch he hurried his delivery more and as a result was less effective.

What happened is what typically happens with a bunch of pitching PROSPECTS. Some of them become major league caliber (Bush, Marcum, Gaudin) , some get hurt (McGowan, League), most never develop.

True. While I understand Bush and Jackson helped the Jays get Overbay, I'm disappointed none of them have stepped up to become even a number 2 or 3 starter.

It's just that I see other teams draft or trade for good young pitchers like Hamels, Bonderman, Verlander, Zumaya, Haren, Kazmir, Beckett, Weaver, Snell, Cain, etc... and wonder when is this going to happen for the Jays.

Hey... Aaron Hill's Striding-to-the-Plate Music is "California Love?" Tupac and Dr Dre?

Cool. I wonder if he picked it out?

I think the point is supposed to be that he pitches better with the bases empty than with runners on.  The talk recently was that when he pitched from the stretch he hurried his delivery more and as a result was less effective.

I know what point he was trying to make, but what he said as it relates to ERA makes absolutely no sense.  How exactly do you differentiate between ERA with the bases empty and ERA with runners on base? 

If a runner is on 2nd, of course from that point on you will give up more runs starting at that arbitrary point than starting at a point with the bases empty. 

Aaron Hill's Striding-to-the-Plate Music is "California Love?" Tupac and Dr Dre?

I know! Isn't that awesome? He had to have picked it out. It's way too good for that not to be the case. I hear he comes up to "Iron Man" in one of his subsequent AB's. Aaron Hill knows what he's doing.

Wow, the team must be doing well when people are focusing on what music hitters are coming to the plate with instead of focusing on a team with a bunch of minor league pithers and players (Zambrano, Ohka, Towers, Fasano, Clayton, Smith)

But California Love is definitely a cool song to come out too!

Poor Rance.  I wonder what was going through his head when Jamie had to describe Speed Dating night at the ballpark.  Is this really the best remaining idea for luring people to the ballpark?

One irony is that Ricciardi was supposed to turn the Jays into a developmental machine (JP arrived with the reputation of being a superior player evaluator). Instead, the farm system is in shambles and JP has become known more for--among other things--relying on free agents to address the team's major needs.

To be fair to JP, the Jays were pretty good on paper to start the year (though probably not as good as last year's 87-win team). In hindsight, missing out on Lilly and Meche were huge blows to the team's chances. That, and this year's injuries, have really exposed the organization's more fundamental weaknesses IMO.

On a positive note, I've decided that I enjoy Rance much more than Pat and a bit more than Darren.  I realize that this isn't exactly high praise.

Ah, come on.  Fletch is the perfect guy to do colour commentary at this point.  When my team's getting the boots laid to it, as it is tonight, I'd much rather hear stories about which town has the best hot dogs than those awkward Rance pauses .  You think he's welling up for something deep, something philosophical, and then he comes out with, "Sometimes a hitter should swing at a first pitch fastball."   I'm been watching games on NESN for the last week and a half and the Rem-Dog, who plays the clown when he has to but knows the game inside out, is really starting to grow on me.

On a serious note, I wonder what this skid does in the minds of those casual fans  who'd slowly been coming back over the last few years.  Is anyone going to go to the Rogers Centre this summer if they have a sub .500 team at the all-star break?  What does that mean for payroll in 2008 if  attendance drops off by about 3000 a game?

The Jays are done. Is someone kidding me if they think they are going to make the playoffs? The can only lose 45 more games from here on if they think they are getting a sniff of the playoffs. When Ohka and Zambrano are trotting out there every 5th day, those 45 losses will be here by the All Star Break.

It is really frustrating that the Jays have not made the playoffs since 1993. The best we can hope for this year is that they can somehow screw it up for the Yankees.

Is this really the best remaining idea for luring people to the ballpark?

I dunno.

But they actually pay me to come to the ball park. Which works like a charm, I must say.

I prefer Fletch myself. He seems to be the only one having a good time out there and his enthuiasm rubs off on Campbell.

Well, one point in Ricciardi & Gibbons' favour: Is there anyone who still wants Josh Towers in the starting rotation? On a level that goes beyond "Please, god, anyone other than Zambrano"?

New Blair article is up:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070509.wsptblair9/BNStory/Front?cid=al_gam_globeedge

Highlights include:

'General manager J.P. Ricciardi said Wednesday that McGowan is "here for the rest of the season."'

'And at some point in the next two days, Casey Janssen will likely also be revealed as another part of the answer and moved out of the bullpen into the rotation.

Asked whether Zambrano will get another start after Tuesday's gruesome 2 2/3-inning outing, Ricciardi would say only, "We'll have something to say about that later in the week."'

'They have some interest in pitcher Jason Davis, designated for assignment by the Cleveland Indians.'

I miss the Jim Fregosi years.  The teams were good enough to make you want to watch games, scored a bunch of runs, but didn't have pretentions of making the playoffs.  Beer was hella-cheap, too, under $5 a glass if I recall correctly.  I enjoyed getting lightly sozzled with my old man on a Saturday afternoon and seeing a few a dingers.  Flash forward to the present...  I almost threw up last night watching the game with my cousin in Boston because the Jays' 2007 season is effectively over in early May.  I remember when 2005 broke, it I was at the game in DET when Batista blew that extra-inning save (July/Aug, forget the exact date).   2006 lasted until the 3-run homer off BJ in early August in OAK (again, dates elude me).   Sigh.

Well, I guess the bright side is that I can stay for after beers on softball nights because there's no longer any over-riding need to rush home and catch the end of the ballgame.

Thanks Lyle, those two meaningless homeruns will help my fantasy team. 

Poor Rance.  I wonder what was going through his head when Jamie had to describe Speed Dating night at the ballpark.

That was Tabler.

On the one hand, it's about time at least one of Janssen and Marcum got into the rotation.

On the other hand: Janssen has pitched more than two innings in a game exactly once this year, and that was 2.1 innings on April 2nd. Since then, he's pitched as much as 2 innings twice.  Is it really so difficult to plan these things out more effectively, or are the Jays just making it up as they  go?

Next year isn't here yet. But it's visible.
 
Sorry Jeff, I'll have to disagree with you.  Next year is most definitely here.  Let the retooling begin.

Is it really so difficult to plan these things out more effectively, or are the Jays just making it up as they  go?

Bingo.

I have any number of pretty lethal things to say about the Blue Jays as a team and an organization -- including some choice words for the GM -- but for the moment, I think it should be pointed out that the Jays threw their two weakest starters against two overpowering pitchers for the Red Sox these last two nights. The Jays could have gone 6-0 on that Cleveland/Texas roadtrip and still come home to get whitewashed in these two matches. Things are bad, no question, but you could have marked down these two losses back in March.

As fans, I think we should be grateful for a losing streak this ugly this early in the season, because it clears up the illusions most of us shared that this is a truly contending team. Hopefully it's cleared up any similar illusions in the front office too, and maybe the news in Blair's column foreshadows that very thing -- McGowan and Janssen in the rotation the rest of the year would be excellent news. The Jays suffered two significant serious injuries -- Johnson and Ryan -- early in the year, and this team has not been talented or resilient enough to play through them. Maybe Gibbons pays the price for that, but much as his tactical decisions have irritated me, he is not the only or even the main reason this team is sinking fast.

In any event, the season is not over, not by a long shot -- if a playoff spot looks like a distant dream now, it's still a dream worth playing for; I expect the members of this team to play hard to that effect. And if Lind gets a full year in the majors, Hill and Rios get more opportunities to mature, and McGowan, Janssen and Marcum get a full season as front-line players, then there'll still be some good to come out of the year in any event.

I miss the Jim Fregosi years

I personally don't, but this did remind me of something I thought of the other day: for each of the Blue Jays' last five managers (Carlos Tosca, Buck Martinez, Jim Fregosi, Tim Johnson, Cito Gaston), the Jays were the last team they ever managed, a streak that goes back to 1990. I wonder if that's a record.

So, McGowan's here for the rest of the year, and Janssen's going to the rotation too.  Thank you!!!!  Halladay, Burnett, McGowan and Janssen will help bring the Jays above .500 by the end of the year.  As for whether Marcum should have gone into the rotation over Janssen, I think Janssen's frame is more suitable to starting than Marcum's and Janssen has been more consistent this year. 

for each of the Blue Jays' last five managers (Carlos Tosca, Buck Martinez, Jim Fregosi, Tim Johnson, Cito Gaston), the Jays were the last team they ever managed, a streak that goes back to 1990. I wonder if that's a record.

I guess Toronto's the bizarro-world NYC - if you can't make it here, you can't make it anywhere!

Sorry but am I the only one who has no idea why McGowan is up here - to stay?

He hasn't even proven himself at the minor league levels, I mean let the guy build up some freaking confidence before trotting him out there to face a lineup which isn't tearing up the AL.  Maybe I'm just hoping for a slightly more conservative approach, but in my books you actually have to accomplish something at the lower levels to get the call with any sort of regularity.

Also, what was up with Gibby using 5 pitchers in a blowout game (Zambrano one on the 8th).  Is it really such a crime to let a pitcher go more than an inning or two, especially those with starter type arms (Marcum and Janssen).

Marcum has pitched about as effectively as Janssen this year, notwithstanding the ERA differential.  One major difference is the HR/fly rate, 23% for Marcum and 0% for Janssen.  Both figures will gravitate toward the middle.  Of the four homers hit against Marcum, one was a 365 foot job to right-centre that barely snaked over the line and another was off the foul pole.  The other major difference is the LOB%.  Janssen this year is at 89%; Marcum is at 69%.  Both of those figures will also gravitate toward the middle.

Marcum should actually be the first one in the rotation due to readiness.  Janssen should be next.  I don't know what they ought to do with McGowan.

In 2006, the Twins were eight games under .500 and came back to win the AL Central.

In 2005, the Astros were fifteen games under .500 and came back to win the NL Wild Card.

In 2004, the Braves were six games under .500 and came back to win the NL East.

In 2003, both the Twins and Braves were four games under .500 and came back to win their divisions.

In 2002, the A's were six games under .500 and came back to win the AL West.  In 2001, the same A's were nine games under .500 and came back to win the Wild Card.

If you give up now, you risk missing out on a heck of a ride.  I can offer no particular reason why this Blue Jays team would make a similar comeback (other than they're better than they've played), but there's no particular reason why they wouldn't, either.  The Jays have played pretty poorly this year but no worse than some of the teams mentioned above.  The lesson is, someone does this every year, so "why not us" as the saying goes?

Another team that got off to a rotten start was the 2003 Jays. Two of their starters were deeply flawed veteran righties; the fifth guy was a young lefty with a good W-L record from the previous season. (The #2 pitcher was Cory Lidle, who was easily - easily! - the second-best starter in the early going. And Halladay was flirting with 5.00 throughout April.) Those Jays lost 10 of 11 in mid-April to torpedo whatever optimism might have been engendered by their hot 2002 second half. They gave up 16 runs before a packed house on SARS night. Their bullpen was Kelvim Escobar and.. bleh. Cliff Politte, and then such luminaries as Creek, Tam and Miller, as well as question marks like Aquilino Lopez and Jason Kershner. They were 1-6 against the Yankees and 2-4 against Boston. It was not a fun time.

The day after SARS night, April 30, 2003, the Blue Jays hit their nadir. One of the three veteran mediocrities (He has pitched in the majors and only costs a million dollars! I must have him!) comprising the back end of their rotation, Tanyon Sturtze, took to the hill before a raucous gathering of 16,021. Sturtze gave up 8 runs to the Rangers in 3.1 innings. The Jays took an 11-3 pounding that put them eight games underwater for the first time all year, 10-18. It looked all kinds of not good.

Roy Halladay started the next game...

All last winter I was delighted JP got the Plan B three blind mice (Z/O/T)...delighted because they would give time for McGowan and Janssen to FORCE their way into the rotation. I also have repeatedly said if we were to have any chance in 07 McG and Big J would have to be in the rotation by mid-May. So far so good...unfortunately they're joining the rotation because the wheels have fallen off, not only the four under the corners but the one in the trunk too.

RIGHT now, even with our record, IF we had the REAL Ryan, League, Zaun and Sparky with a rotation of Roy, AJ, McG, BigJ and take your pick, we would STILL have a realistic shot at a play-off  spot. With our Henke and Ward gone...no REAL lead-off player, no catcher...we may well be over the no hope line. This sticks in my craw, and it hurts.

HOWEVER, if you want to fire JP because he convinced Ted that we don't need a strong presence in Latin scouting, in Eastern scouting, that we could build a contender on the backs of only college OK draft picks instead of guys with REAL projection, and if you want to fire JP because his college guys turned mostly into pumpkins...THEN go ahead FIRE HIM...just don't fire him because all the wheels have fallen off, and dreaded diseases and injuries have slaughtered us.

It would be ironic if he got canned for the one thing that REALLY is not his fault! Despite his flaws, and (IM{H}O) he has many...he actually built a competive team this year, a team that would only need a little luck to get into the playoffs. The good news is the quantity of luck has been unprecedented, the bad news is it's all been bad.  

As fans, I think we should be grateful for a losing streak this ugly this early in the season, because it clears up the illusions most of us shared that this is a truly contending team. Hopefully it's cleared up any similar illusions in the front office too

Bang on Jordan.

While they've had to endure some brutal injuries, this early funk has exposed some glaring weaknesses in the construction of the club. Zambrano has no business on this team until he has stretched the arm out and proven himself at AAA. Tomo Ohka is doing a convincing impression of Joey Hamilton.

Sorry but am I the only one who has no idea why McGowan is up here - to stay?

To stay? Maybe a bit early to say that, but I'd give the guy a long while to get some big league innings. The best thing this team can do right now is try to let the young guns get some experience so that next year isn't another season from hell. Who knows? We might catch lightning in a bottle... something much less likely if we stick with Ohka and Zambrano.

I think Ryan Day is right... looks like they're making it up as they go. Someone will surely get fired if this mess keeps up, rightly or wrongly.

 Well I just can't wait for tomorrows game... I'm stupid enough to go again. (at least it's Doc)
Please join me in the suffering if you like. Sec 128 Row 1 seat 1. Bring a paper bag.

This is getting Julian Tavarez  ugly.

I'm reminded of a comment regarding last year's Marlins.  The most valuable thing that an MLB team has in playing time.  And using that playing time appropriately to develop your youngsters is a good way to develop your team.  So hopefully the Jays will be able to use their playing time to develop Lind, McGowan, Jansen, Marcum, etc

In Blair's last article he mentioned that JP said, when asked about Zambrano making his next start, that 'we'll have more to say about that in a few days'.  I take this to mean that he's on the waiver wire right now, and if he clears, will go to Syracuse.  Is this plausible?

Blair also suggested that Janssen could be in line for a start next week - inferring perhaps in Zambrano's spot.

Every so often in baseball a particular team will make a trade or sign a player and the move is so unbelievably bad that almost every knowledgeable "fan" will just shake their head.  Some examples.

1.  The Reds signing Milton
2.  The Twins signing Batista
3.  The Yankees signing Pavano
4.  The Mariners trading Soriano for Ramirez
5.  The Mets trading Kazmir for Zamrano

At the time these moves happened I was just dumbfounded that a major league team could make such a stupid decision.

Now I realize that JP wanted Meche and/or Lilly (as he mentioned more than once last night), but the moment the Ohka signing was announced I just new this was a terrible idea.  I pictured Ohka facing the Yankees or Red Sox and line drives being driven to all parts of the outfield.

Ohka's "performance" last night was probably around the median of expected performances for him against that lineup.  His median performance against an average AL team might be slightly better, but still no where near acceptable.

So didn't JP realize that the young guys probably weren't ready and that Lilly and Meche most likely would choose to go elsewhere?  Is it just bad planning, bad luck, or what exactly?

IMO the chances that Ohka, Zambrano, or Thomson would be serviceable starters this year were very low.  I guess I could still be proven wrong, but I'm not second guessing, as I really thought that the rotation would be a disaster this year.

So didn't JP realize that the young guys probably weren't ready and that Lilly and Meche most likely would choose to go elsewhere?  Is it just bad planning, bad luck, or what exactly?

He obviously didn't think the young guys were quite ready. But when your young players aren't ready, and good free agents take more money/years to play elsewhere, exactly what other options are available? Trade Rios or Wells for Ervin Santana, who wasn't great then and has been just as bad as Ohka this year? Give up those young players to trade for a veteran mediocrity?

It's way too early to conclude Meche and Lilly will justify their contracts. Everyone here knows my opinion of Lilly, and while pitching in the NL, and the NL Central, will help, he simply cannot be counted on. And Meche? It was a bad deal when it happened, and one good month isn't going to change that. The Jays shouldn't be kicking themselves for letting those two get away.

Starting pitching has not been the problem. The offense has. The bullpen has. Gibbon's mismanagement of the bullpen has turned W's into L's, on a number of occasions, and that has directly affected the offence to the point that it seems to not exist.

I like how JP signed O/Z/T. They would have pitched fine to keep us in the race up to this point, IF our offense hasn't fallen off the face of the earth like it has. What is the alternative? To sign Lilly and Meche, and then have chacin go fifth? If that happened, wouldn't it be a done deal that McGowan and Janssen would NOT be starters on the Jays?

I think the best possible rotation, would be, Halladay, Burnett, Janssen, McGowan and Zambrano. This is if Zambrano is stretched out, and if Zaun is calling the shots.

-I read somewhere that the Jays' bullpen ERA has bloated since Zaun left.

Starting pitching has not been a problem????  I guess it depends on how you define "problem"

ERA's

Towers - 4.70 (as a starter)
Burnett - 5.09
Ohka - 5.53
Chacin - 5.60

I would say that an ERA of about 5.25 from your numbers 2-5 starters is a "problem"

Thus endeth the season.

That's some back injury, JP.

Ouch, someone just stuck a fork in the season.  The bad luck has been over the top this year.

Keith Law managing one of at least four digs at JP in today's chat:

George (NY): My RSN Friend says Bucholz throws 99. Is that an average fastball or is my friend nuts?

 Keith Law: Your friend is completely nuts. Or he went to the Toronto GM School of Truth-Telling.

 There must really be some bad blood there.  Law never misses an opportunity to take a swipe at Ricciardi (nor does he miss an opportunity to look like a pretentious ass, but that's neither here nor there).

Quick, someone ask him where Vernon Wells is going to sign when he becomes a free agent at the end of the year.

By my count that's 5 digs at Riccardi from Law in a single one-hour chat. I understand bad blood and whatnot but come on...

Starting pitching has not been the problem.

The Blue Jays have a rotation ERA of 5.22, good for 11th in the league ahead of only Seattle, Tampa Bay & Texas. That's a problem.