Ten Things I Agree With

See above.

I generally agree with you, Gerry.

Never mind his value "plummeting" -- Jason Smith has almost no value to this team, and should not be with the big club.  With Johnny Mac and Clayton already on hand and two -- maybe three if you count Lind -- outfielders who can defend the position at a big-league level -- Smith really does need to be replaced by an outfielder.

As far as this team not being that good...I think theoretically, i.e., if everyone were healthy, this is a good enough team to avoid such a pronounced cold spell.  But the effort to cover for these injuries by management has been very poor, in my opinion; there have been many games in which a not-that-good team took the field, that's for sure.

I suspect that save situations will be handled by Accardo for the near future. Set-up looks like Janssen. Frasor and Marcum will handle low leverage situations until their confidence is back up. I think Frasor should be left out of consideration for the closer spot. He doesn't seem to have the mentality of a closer. Blown saves seem to last days with him.

I suspect the Jays will finish with about 85 wins. As has been their pattern they will have a strong September with no pressure as they will be well out of it by then.

At some point I hope they admit the season is lost and put McGowan and Jannsen in the starting rotation on a permanent basis. Heck, bring up Purcey too. Let's see what the kids can do.

There's always next year.

There's always next year.

Dang -- not to pick on you BB, this is an attitude I am seeing all over Da Box and it's actually moderately positive, all things considered. But with more than 80 percent of the season still to be played and the Jays having a better record than last season's World Series champs (granted, 13-18 and 7.5 GB is nothing to be proud of), there is every possibility that Toronto turns it around.

Ain't no mojo here but bad mojo, Jays fans. And I am speaking as a not-Jays-fan, recall, so at least moderately impartially. 85-88 wins could get Toronto in the post-season, and from there -- ask the '88 Dodgers -- sometimes one genuine starting pitcher is enough!

Next year is faaaar away.

I'd like to know where the training staff come in here. Obviously I'm not privy to what's going on in the doctor's office but it seems to me that the Blue Jays don't make a particularly concerted effort to ensure their players are doing the right things to ensure (to the greatest degree possible) their health and resilliancy in the off-season. For example, how does the training/medical staff get off not paying attention to things like Brandan League's unhealthy training habits? And, from the sounds of it, BJ Ryan's pain was known about during spring training (possibly earlier) and he was essentially told to pitch through it instead of having it diagnosed and treated properly from the beginning.

When the 25 men on the roster are your greatest asset and you're paying them tens of millions of dollars combined the least I'd expect is to invest in medical and training staff who check in with every guy once a week during the off-season to be sure that their workouts are appropriate, that any injuries are nursed appropriately, etc. From the sounds of it, Reed Johnson took more of an interest in his teammates' training than the team did this winter and now we're seeing the consequences.

The Jays have obviously been hit hard by injuries - not many teams who don't play in New York can replace their left fielder, catcher, closer, and setup guy for extended periods of time.

On the other hand, I'm not sure they're adapting well, even considering the circumstances. Putting Zambrano in the rotation after he pitched all of five innings in April; sticking with Jason Smith even though he's now got a career 200/250/267 line; continuing to pretend that Matt Stairs is a fourth outfielder; keeping Smith, McDonald, and Clayton on the roster even though they're essentially the same player (and John McDonald might be the best of them!). I wasn't thrilled with the bench to start the season, and it's gotten even worse as they've been forced to play more.

 On top of that, Gibbons' bullpen management is uninspired at best and downright baffling on a regular basis. The current bullpen construction actually lends itself to some creative usage, but Gibbons can't seem to see beyond by-the-book LOOGY and closer strategies, and doesn't take advantage of former starters who can actually pitch multiple innings at a time.

 It's true that the season isn't over yet, and that the team isn't really this bad. But Ricciardi's got to do something to improve the team, or the Red Sox and Yankees are going to be 15 games ahead by the time the team snaps out of its funk.

What's changed with Frason since his rookie year?  The experiencemeans that he no longer has a closer's mentality, but in his first year he could handle it?

Frasor has said in his first year he had no idea what he was doing. He would just throw as hard as he could and hope for the best. Plus, being a rookie he was probably overwhelmed and excited to just be in "The Show."

Maybe now he is overthinking things and having already been sent back to minors last year perhaps he is feeling extra pressure as he knows he can be sent back down. Plus, the team we had a few years ago was not expected to contend. This year there is a lot more pressure on the players to perform and contend.

I'd like to know where the training staff come in here. Obviously I'm not privy to what's going on in the doctor's office but it seems to me that the Blue Jays don't make a particularly concerted effort to ensure their players are doing the right things to ensure (to the greatest degree possible) their health and resilliancy in the off-season. For example, how does the training/medical staff get off not paying attention to things like Brandan League's unhealthy training habits? And, from the sounds of it, BJ Ryan's pain was known about during spring training (possibly earlier) and he was essentially told to pitch through it instead of having it diagnosed and treated properly from the beginning.

With regards to Ryan I believe that sore elbows, shoulders, etc are fairly common for pitchers and in most cases the problem heals itself. They probably thought that shutting him down for a couple weeks in spring training would rectify the problem. I don't have a big problem with the way they handled Ryan.

With League it is hard to have an opinion because no one knows what really went wrong. If he did lift weights during the off season and added too much muscle to his arm I think it is insane that no one from the Jays was monitoring his off season regiment and advising him.

Dang -- not to pick on you BB, this is an attitude I am seeing all over Da Box and it's actually moderately positive, all things considered. But with more than 80 percent of the season still to be played and the Jays having a better record than last season's World Series champs (granted, 13-18 and 7.5 GB is nothing to be proud of), there is every possibility that Toronto turns it around.

It's hard to be optimistic with our starting rotation. Clearly we need to go on a couple of long winning streaks which is something we haven't been able to do even once in the last couple years.  Halladay is gold and I still believe in A.J (and you said I wasn't positive!) but I can't see a back end rotation of Chacin/Zambrano and Okha contributing to any lengthy winning streak.

Couple that with the Red Sox's insanely good starting rotation and the Yankee's much improved rotation (Wang, Pettite, Clemens and Mussina seems pretty sweet!) and I forsee another long summer.

Another disappointment for me is to see the Yanks dip into their minor league system for arms to add to the starting rotation and seeing these kids pitch solid games. Where are our guys like that?

The Red Sox aren't necessarily going to be this good all year. A DL stint or two for Shilling or Papelbon wouldn't be a huge shock, and Beckett isn't a sure thing. (On the other hand, they've gotten this far without substantial contributions from Manny, Drew, and Lugo). And who knows what the Yankees will look like by mid-season - maybe this is the year Clemens finally loses it, and Pettite could easily join Mussina on the DL.

It doesn't look good, of course, but it ain't over 'til it's over.

I think it's pretty simple, really: If you're happy in your job, you'll probably work harder than if you feel underappreciated or overworked. A good manager, in any field, knows how to get the best out of his/her employees.

That said, none of us are in the dugout, and we don't know who's happy and who's not. We don't know who's trying hard and who's slacking off, and it's silly to think we can glean these things from watching a player walk back to the dugout or sit on the bench.

I'm sure some players love Gibbons, some can't stand him, and some don't care a whole lot. Frankly, it's the sort of thing that can only be evaluated from the inside.

His bullpen management, on the other hand...

I'm sure some players love Gibbons, some can't stand him, and some don't care a whole lot. Frankly, it's the sort of thing that can only be evaluated from the inside.

And even if you could know that a particular player doesn't like Gibbons, that piece of information may be largely irrelevant. Brian Tallet, for instance, is a fringe major leaguer. He has to do his very best, such as it is, to succeed at a level for which he is often overmatched. Even if he detests Gibbons, he can't allow that to affect his play. And save for a handful of vets on longterm contracts, who really could? Most of these guys are too busy fighting for their careers or their next big pay day to even entertain the idea of Operation Shutdown.

But years and years spent watching Dusty Baker (seemingly) motivate some pretty mediocre SF teams made me wonder.

I would throw Bobby Cox into that mix too.

From a fan's perspective it is certainly too early to write off the season just yet, particularly given the Yankees sluggish start, but that time will be soon upon us if the Jays current performance level continues for even another couple weeks.

One suggestion I have to shake things up is to immediately move Aaron Hill to SS.   Clayton has not impressed defensively and we should be able to pick up a solid 2nd baseman via trade at minimal expense (several fell through the cracks at bargain basement prices this offseason).

To show we're serious about competing acquiring a legitimate backup corner infielder and veteran reliever would be nice as well. 

Management throwing their hands up and pleading injuries is akin to capitulation.

Panic, is greatly overrated. We still have a shot at both the division and the wildcard (more likely). My(legacy's) 1 to 10 comments.

1. Brad Arnsberg is not a genius

Genius and baseball, words that go together like hockey and teeth. I'll stick with Brad.

 2. Can we have one lineup for a while please?

This is the time of year to experiment. I expect Hill and Lind will end up 1 and 2 or 2 and 1. Rios moves back to a power position. We'll have a dominating 1 through 7.

3. Alex Rios is not a gold glove candidate

Rios will win a gold glove, not this year, but he will...mark my words.

4. Sometimes quality does beat quantity

Quality ALWAYS beats quantity. What's new. That's why Z/T/O were Plan B.

5. What is an AL East pitcher?

Will someone PLEASE bury Dave Bush...jeeze. AL pitchers include: Halladay, Burnett, McGowan, Janssen and one of Z/T/O (or thier ilk).

6. Frank Thomas sits middle-in

No question, Frank Thomas is a tad pull happy. When the weather warms up and his old bones loosen up... his problems will give us 30 homers from June on and a 380 OBP. We can live with it, thank you very much.

7. Jason Smith has a hole in his swing

Jason Smith has a swing? News to me. Another reason to NEVER believe the spring or September.

8. Small things win ball games, the Jays are built for big things

Small things win ball games...when you don't have big things. I'll take our offense and defense over at least 26 or so of the other 30. Not bad. 

9. BJ Ryan and Brandon League's injuries are the biggest losses

Duh...like the Pope's Catholic and too much cyanide can stunt your growth - permanently!

10. This team might not be that good

No team is "THAT" good. Heck, even the Maple Leafs had a few flaws. REALISTICALLY, we can still win the wild card.

11. I add to the list - Keep the faith!

Amen!

A few questions/thoughts I have:

1.Halladay,Burnett,Lilly,Meche, Chacin.  Now that is a rotation!  Oh well.

2.  Arnsberg is an interesting case.  AJ loves him dearly and says he knows him as well as anyone.  He has a great rep from his Marlin days.  However, there are some pitching issues.  AJ + his changeup = AJ win.  Therefore, maybe AJ should be told to throw his changeup until it is imprinted on his brain.  And Doc should hit him with his copy of the ABC Mental Game of Pitching. Over the head.

Rance Mulliniks' explanation of '06 Towers was the best I heard.  His theory was as such: Towers had a slight flaw in his mechanics, and left his pitches up.  He got seriously tatooed and it got in his head.  He got scared. 

So, where was the pitching coach before the guy went 1-9 and an ERA of a billion?  Jason Frasor is another one who got a little messed up.  Is it not the pitching coach's job to make sure his guys are ready to go?

3. The big problem in the pen is that no one is scary.  The other teams' offense isn't in the dugout thinking "We have to score now, because against the 7/8/9 th inning guys, it's next to impossible".  If BJ's problem all along was his elbow,  why wasn't he shut down in the spring (like AJ was last year) and would now be on the point (hopefully) of returning?  Was this a mess up?

4. Rios' benefitted from the platoon.  He needs a little ass fire.

5.  David Wells, in his book, talks about when he first came up, he'd hum the ball in there and hope for the best.  It was Mike Flannagan, Dave Steib and Jimmy Key who took him aside and taught him how to pitch.  They'd watch his outings, discuss getting inside hitters heads, how to work guys, theoretical situations (ie "How does one pitch Wade Boggs?").  Essentially talk shop. Does this exist at all on this team? 

6. Could the Aaron Hill as lead off experiment end already?

     Jeff Blair, in today's Globe, seems to be hinting broadly that Gibbons might be on the verge of losing his job.  His story today says the Jays need to begin winning very soon if they want to save the skipper's job.   He also quotes Paul Godfrey, who seems to be saying that he won't allow the losing streak to continue "much longer" without changes -- presumably meaning Gibbons.  And the quotes from Gibbons himself suggest that he is very fatalistic about the distinct possibility of being fired.  So, reading between the lines, I'd conclude that Gibbons is gone if the Jays don't turn it around very soon.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20070508.BLAIR08/TPStory/Columnists

Two things have been on my mind with respect to these struggles,

A) Will JP pull off a trade? And will it be as a buyer or a seller?

The Dodgers are apparently looking for a third baseman, and while I hate to capitulate, a bounty of young players would serve this team a lot more good than a mediocre 3rd or 4th place finish with Glaus in the lineup.

B) Halladay's last outing - ESPN notes that his velocity was down. Can anyone report?

With League it is hard to have an opinion because no one knows what really went wrong. If he did lift weights during the off season and added too much muscle to his arm I think it is insane that no one from the Jays was monitoring his off season regiment and advising him.

I thought I had read that League had pulled/sprained/maybe torn his rotator cuff while paddling his surf board in the off season.  They did an MRI at the time on it and determined he didn't need surgery; instead he needed to rest it and strengthen the shoulder.  He then, as it seems with no supervision, built up too much muscle and that combined with not throw for months took about 10mph off his fastball.  (I've searched for a link but I'm coming up empty).

With the whispers that he may need surgery leads one to think that the rotator cuff injury did not heal and his stay on the DL has more to do with the injury than any reconditioning he did over the winter.

Whatever the truth is, Riccardi’s not saying.  Maybe League should think about taking up a knuckleball pitch...

This has been bothering me too. I also want to know why BJ was still pitching after his initial meltdown in Detroit. If management knew he had an elbow problem, wouldn't that outing have confirmed that there was potentially a serious problem?

 Do you mean against Tampa? His first game against Detroit was fine: A hit and a walk along with 2 Ks. In his second outing (April 6), he coughed up three runs against Tampa, but then he came back the next night with a perfect inning for the save. He pitched another perfect inning against KC on the 11th, then lost it against the Tigers on the 14th and went on the DL. So even if it's maybe a little problem after that first loss, he came back with two strong games.

 It's easy to second guess, but unless B.J. announces that he was hurting real bad but Gibbons made him pitch anyway, it's hard to say it was definitely the wrong move. If B.J. finishes spring training and says he's feeling fine, do you shut him down just in case? In hindsight, yes, but it's a tough decision to make.

Forget Bush, remember Zach Jackson?

http://www.rctimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070508/SPORTS0401/705080335/1002/MTCN0302 

And Josh Towers did exactly what to be pulled from the rotation?

Marcum goes 2 innings, Janssen goes 1 inning.  Why aren't they being stretched out?  I would feel a lot better with a rotation of Halladay, Burnett, McGowan, Janssen and Marcum.  Zambrano just looks ridiculous.  Ohka doesn't seem much better. 

Accardo, Downs, Frasor, Tallet, Ohka, Towers and somebody else like Gronk, Thorpe or Thomson I could stomach until Ryan and League get back. 

The bullpen would be weak until Ryan and League came back, but in my opinion the best pitchers should be starting and getting the most innings.

http://deadspin.com/sports/good-thing-they-didn.t-schedule-this-on-bat-day/turn-your-head-order-a-beer-and-cough-258574.php

These aren't far behind in Toronto if the team keeps playing like this.  Ah, Gord Ash - never has one's image rehabilitated so quickly as yours has these last few weeks.  Here is another reason.

One thing I know is that the Gilmore Girls Series Finale is on May 15. No more Lorelai. No more Rory. No more witty repartee. I know the "Girls" are a fave here at the Box and have been a topic of discussion and celebration in the past.

It will be a sad day.

Perhaps some sort of tribute is in order.

And why the hell did Gibby burn through the pen in last nights game? It was way over, why didnt Towers come in and mop up? Probably saving him to come in today and mop up for Ohka?

Even my 95 year grandma who has been watching baseball for 70 years commented the Gibbins is trying to out-manage the players.

I would imagine a sweep to the Sox would leave to some major changes - notably in the rotation.

Marcum and Janssen both showed enough last year to merit another shot. Zambrano evidently needs to work on his stuff and velocity. He's got a cheap option year for 2008 though so I can't imagine he'd be released. A rotation with the three youngsters in it would offer up some hope for the future, and Ohka might even net a return in a trade. I believe Rosenthal at ESPN said as much in his latest rumour round up. Unfortunately next year's free agent crop isn't that promising so giving Marcum, McGowen and Janssen full time shots might be the best the Jays can do.

Thus, it might be time to blow things up. The offensive core is fine but glaring holes and a lack of minor league depth cries for a shakeup. Glaus, Chacin, Ohka, Clayton, should all be playing elsewhere come September. I hesitate to include Glaus but his hot bat/decent defence might be enough to spur either the Dodgers or Angels to pony up.

DH,

I would be alright with trading Glaus because of his injury history and 2009 player option, BUT a major league ready 3B would have to come back in the deal since the Jays don't have a replacement for Glaus (Santos is having a nice year and could be moved to 3B, but he's certainly not proven and hasn't even hit in AAA yet).  If a SS or 2B came back, Hill could move to 3B with Adams taking over at 2B, but it would have to be one heck of a deal, such as Brandon Wood coming to Toronto. 

Also, I don't think signing a good free-agent pitcher this off-season would be an option anyway.  I've looked at the budget at "hardballdollars", and with arbitration increases the Jays' 2008 budget should be over $90 million already, even if the Jays don't pick up a single player.  No, it seems any improvements will come from within or via trade.  Another reason why it's time to see McGowan, Janssen and Marcum get regular starts, and I'll cross my fingers on Purcey and Romero.  And speaking of trades, I don't think the likes of Towers, Clayton, Ohka, McDonald or Thomson will net the Jays anything of value.

Tim - indeed, any deal would be contingent on getting a MLB ready left side infielder, as well as a potential starter. Both of the LA teams happen to flush with them. Dodgers with Laroche and Abreu (who has also played 2b and SS), and the Angels with any combination of Izturis, Aybar, McPherson, and Wood. Schmidth's return from injury might also loosen up the Dodgers to dealing from their rotation or Billingsley from the 'pen. The Angels is well documented.

But heck if that falls through next years free agent crop includes John Thompson, Tomo Okha ... oh wait.

But regardless the Jays need some guys who can go 6 innings - Marcum and perhaps Geremi Gonzalez might be inline for a call soon enough - only problem being a space on the 40man for GG.  

The critics of the Rodriguez signing have been correct, Robert. Pudge had a fabulous '04 with the Tigers, but he hasn't really come close to earning his money since then. The Magglio Ordonez contract is also one of the worst in baseball.

I guess it's practically a miracle then that the Tigers won the American League pennant.  Thank goodness that isn't a problem the Jays have to deal with.