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One month doesn't mean a lot - a single very hot or very cold week can skew everything - but there are some interesting developments.

When did the AL East turn into the NL Central? Both divisions feature the team with the best record in the league, towering above a bunch of competitors looking up at .500, never mind actually challenging the leaders. Quite a lot of people liked the Brewers going into the season, but it was more on the basis that 86 wins would probably be enough to win a compressed division. (83 wins was enough last year.) Milwaukee has been scoring runs (133, fourth best in the league) with a nicely balanced offense - while nobody is en fuego, everybody is contributing. The only real black hole has been the Counsell-Graffanino tandem at third base. Jeff Suppan has been very good at the top of the rotation and Francisco Cordero has been lights out at the end of the game.

The frightening thing about the Red Sox is this - the offense hasn't really made it out of the station. Manny Ramirez is hitting .227 with just 3 homers. It's unlikely that he'll continue at this pace. Lugo, Crisp, and Varitek are all scuffling. The mighty Big Papi has been carrying the load all by his lonesome, for the most part. Mike Lowell has chipped in as well, although he's given away almost as many runs with his glove (which is also unlikely to continue.) The pitching, of course, has been sensational. Daisuke Matsuzaka is a pretty impressive fourth starter (which is what he's been so far, on this team). Papelbon has picked up exactly where he left off last summer, and this year he's getting some excellent support from a couple of new faces, Brendan Donnelly and Hideki Okajima. They look pretty good - the concern has to be the age and durability of some of the key players: Schilling, Wakefield, Varitek for sure, but Ramirez, Lowell, and Papelbon as well.

The biggest surprises, for me anymore, are coming from the National League. I thought the NL East would be a lively two team struggle. But I thought the Braves would be duking it out with Phillies, not the Mets. New York's starting rotation frightened me to my bones, while the Phillies went into the season with more starting pitchers than they could actually use. But in baseball, you don't know nothing. The Mets have received very little so far from David Wright and Carlos Delgado, two of the cornerstones of their offense. But they've given up fewer runs than any team in baseball. The safest bet going into the season was the man with the Worst Stuff in the Major Leagues, and Tom Glavine is rolling on the way he always does (3-1, 2.80). The happy developments were Orlando Hernandez pitching well through the first month (2-1, 2.53), Oliver Perez recovering the form that two years made him look like the NL's next great left-hander (3-2, 3.41 with 36 Ks in 29 IP) and John Maine unexpectedly being the league's pitcher of the month for April (well, it should have been Matt Cain, but Maine went 4-0 with a 1.35 ERA, which is nothing to sneer at.) The bullpen - Wagner, Smith, Feliciano, Schoeneweis, Burgos - has been superb. El Duque has hit the DL (that's not a surprise), and it seems unlikely (make that impossible) that Maine will continue pitching this well. On the other hand, Wright and Delgado will heat up. And Pedro is looming down the road...

In Philadelphia, meanwhile... Freddy Garcia was hurt in spring training and hasn't pitched well since coming back. Brett Myers lost two of his first three starts and was banished to the bullpen. Adam Eaton is still in the rotation, with his 7.71 ERA. The best news has been the two lefties, the ancient Jamie Moyer and the youthful Cole Hamels. And I would think they're pretty happy they held onto John Lieber.

And somewhat to my surprise, it looks like the Giants will be heard from this year. Matt Cain has allowed 12 hits in 35 innings, which is not bad although he apparently doesn't know how to win. After a couple of shaky starts to begin the year, Barry Zito has settled in to pitch like Barry Zito always does. And the left-fielder has been able to appear in all but two of the team's games, and is on pace to hit 54 home runs, which is a nice complement to his .343/.511/.791 line. The man can certifiably still hit.
3 May 2007: Looking Around | 21 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Chuck - Thursday, May 03 2007 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#167158) #

ancient Jamie Moyer

I'm sure there's a clever play on words about the crime of the ancient ex-Mariner, but I'm not smart enough to figure out what it would be. Maybe if gets caught on a DUI we can run that as a headline.

Chuck - Thursday, May 03 2007 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#167162) #

Looking around the league myself, I have a question: is there enough crow to go around? Today's start raised his ERA.

Alex0888 - Thursday, May 03 2007 @ 07:27 PM EDT (#167169) #
jerry howarth: "aaron hill is making his first start in the leadoff position"
me: "its about time"

AWeb - Thursday, May 03 2007 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#167173) #
I always wonder this time of year who has had a cold start that actually heralds the end of their prodcutive career? Players can drop off a cliff at any time, any age, especially pitchers. In the end, only a few will in the first categories will have bad years, but someone flames out almost every year (hello Cubs pitching)
With an obvious bias towards ex-Jays, but ignoring the current one (who've been beat to death here lately), I hereby present the early season pitching staff of the :

CLIFF JUMPERS?

The young and most likely unlucky
Carlos Zambrano : 34.3 innings, 19 walks, 25 Ks, 8HR, 5.77 ERA. Homers killing him, that'll calm down as the year goes on
Dontrelle Willis : 37 IP, 10 BBs, 31K, 5 HR, 5.35 ERA.
Brett Myers : 23.7, 12BB, 32K, 6.46 ERA. Will the Phillies come to their senses and put him back in the rotation?
Eric Bedard : 34 IP, 13 BB, 42 K, 6 HR, 6.09 ERA. And I thought Towers was struggling with good peripherals...
Ervin Santana : 34.3 IP, 16BB, 26 K, 7HR, 5.50 ERA. Another early season gopher ball victim.

The old and possibly done
Woody Williams : 35 IP, 11BB, 11 K, 5.66 ERA : Houston is not the place for marginal stuff guys to go.
David Wells : 26 IP, 34 hits, 4 HR, 6.23 ERA : It's gotta' end sometime.
Mike Timlin : It's early...but eventually...
Jose Mesa: ERA of 20.25. don't care if it's early, that's terrible.
Miguel Batista : 30 IP, 6BB, 19K, 6 HR, 6.30 ERA. And yet is 3-2 on a bad offensive team somehow.

The seems to injured, might not make it back (you never know with pitchers)
Jason Schmidt : 11 IP, 7.36 ERA : I haven't read anything this week, but last week sounded grim.
Chris Carpenter : 6 IP, 7.50 ERA, 1 sore arm. Sounds like he'll be back soon.
Mike Mussina : 6IP, 6 runs. Won't make it to 300 wins if he can't make 30 starts a year.
Mariano Rivera : ERA of 10.57. Has never given up more than 25 runs in a year as a reliever, 9 so far. almost impossible not to regress some from his last few years though. I don't know of any injuries perse, but an ERA over 10? I hereby speculate!
Rich Harden : awesome numbers, can't stay healthy.

And the "just take them behind the barn already" section:
Russ Ortiz : 3rd straight awful season in the works.
Adam Eaton : Has never been even an average pitcher...just give it up, ML teams.
Sidney Ponson : 28.3 IP, 21 runs, 7 HR...three year since last decent
Jeff Weaver, 11.3 IP, 23 runs, all earned. Yeesh...
Anyone attempting to start in Tampa Bay not names Kazmir or Shields. Time to try the 2-man rotation.

VBF - Thursday, May 03 2007 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#167175) #
David Dellucci just joined other ballplayers such as David Wells, Shea Hillenbrand, and Esteban Loaiza to make it onto the Toronto hit list.

Memo to Jesse: Control your kid, man.

McGowan had a less than spectacular outing but it's not everyday you face a lineup that's as patient and as hard hitting as that one. I think he will do quite well against the rest of the American League. Hopefully the management shows a little patience.

Who am I kidding? He'll be closing in a week.

timpinder - Thursday, May 03 2007 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#167179) #

McGowan's line is obviously ugly.  But stats aside, I really don't think he pitched that poorly.  He fell apart in the 3rd, but was great in the 1st, 2nd, and 4th.  In the 5th, well, some balls found some holes.  His delivery is smooth and his stuff just looks so good, I'm still really optimistic.  I hope (and think) that as he gets more major league starts he'll become more consistent. 

robertdudek - Thursday, May 03 2007 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#167180) #
Clearly McGowan has potential, but is still an unpolished pitcher. When he's even a little off kilter, good hitting teams will be very successful against him.

Anyone want to predict his final 2007 AL ERA as a starter? I'll say 5.40 (minimum 10 starts or else contest void).



mathesond - Thursday, May 03 2007 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#167181) #
Who am I kidding? He'll be closing in a week.

In Syracuse...     
GregJP - Thursday, May 03 2007 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#167182) #
I hate to say this, but I think he's going to be too inconsistent with his location to ever be a successful ML starter.

Some of his pitches are filthy, he made Delucci look really bad twice, but ML hitters are all over him when his control is just a little bit off.

I really liked the high 80's 4 seam fastball that he threw to left handed hitters, but he didn't seem to throw that many breaking balls to right handers.

I'll optimistically say 4.85, but I'm not too confident in that prediction.

Gerry - Thursday, May 03 2007 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#167183) #

Guess the pitcher......

Throws mid to upper nineties

inconsistent breaking pitches

Inconsistent location

Great potential

Shows flashes of brilliance

Title should be guess the pitchers... AJ Burnett and Dustin McGowan

Sherrystar - Thursday, May 03 2007 @ 10:13 PM EDT (#167185) #

It's only May 3rd but it's already a sure thing that this team will only win 80-85 games this year.

Great work J.P. Way to scout that pitching talent!

I'm sick of wasting my time on this team and am joining the stirke. My energy is better spent with my Wii!

the mick - Thursday, May 03 2007 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#167186) #
It's tough to be excited about any team after they've been swept.  The thing that depresses me is looking through the Jays minor league system which, asides from Travis Snider, seems bereft of talent.  J.P. talked about the need to restock the system when he first came on board, hence the decision to go with low-upside but supposedly low-risk college players but that hasn't worked out.  Russ Adams and Ricky Romero look pretty suspect at this point, as does the first round double dip of David Purcey and now-Brewer bust Zach Jackson.  I know the injuries have been piled on, eight on the DL already after only eight were on the DL all of last year but when you're fielding a lineup with Stairs, Johnny Mac, and Jason Phillips - and you have no better alternatives in your system - you have wonder just what sort of future this team has.  The Jays suddenly look like a team that must win this year or next, or they'll be in big trouble.
Barry Bonnell - Thursday, May 03 2007 @ 11:02 PM EDT (#167188) #
After the game J.P said on the radio his first question to Gibbons would be why did he leave Frasor to face Sizemore.
GregJP - Thursday, May 03 2007 @ 11:15 PM EDT (#167189) #
I don't know, it just seems to me that Gibbons just doesn't have a very good feel for his pitching staff.  Frasor is really struggling right now, and he probably would have been about the 3rd option for me tonight in a close late innings spot.

If he hadn't foolishly used Accardo on Tuesday night in the blowout he could have gone with him tonight in the 8th.  I changed channels when Frasor came into the game because I already new what was going to happen and I didn't want to watch it.

Unfortunately losing Ryan has had a trickle down effect on the whole pen and it's not a pretty picture at the moment.

As far as Frasor facing Sizemore, that makes absolutely no sense.

Mylegacy - Friday, May 04 2007 @ 02:29 AM EDT (#167194) #

1) For two wonderful, delightful, mind blowing innings...I thought the unthinkable...sigh.

2) I'd rather lose every game McG pitches this year rather than see one of Ohka/Zambrano/Chacin win half theirs. At least I know that if it "clicks" life will be wonderful. At this time he is AJ only without control (shudder). I have faith, I have faith, I have faith...

3) The bullpen...Name one team in the league that has the depth to lose their closer AND their set-up guy...exactly. When the dust settles Accardo is the closer, Janssen the set-up guy and Downs, Frasor and Marcum hold the fort.. Will it work.? Just barely...when (if) Ryan returns...night and day...we are powerful again.

4) Snider is too sweet. BUT, Ryan Patterson is a REAL keeper too. Eventually, between the outfield, 2nd, 1st and DH...Wells, Lind, Rios, Hill, Snider and Patterson will all be on the team at the same time...drool.

5) Thigpen is not the catcher of the future. The guy has thrown out 2 of 26 this year. They are already talking of getting him starts in other positions. The team is still high on his bat and this athletic ability to play other positions. I am not as high on his bat as they are. Could be they know him better than I do.

6) In the organization (Major league and minors) we have BLACK HOLES at SS and catcher. If Glaus (who I am really getting to like) goes down (and he will) (unfortunately) add 3rd as a BLACK HOLE as well.

7) We have 7 draft picks in the first 100. We MUST budget at LEAST 7 million (better yet 9 or 10) to have any chance to get at least 2 (or more) difference makers in the draft crap shoot. We desperately need some difference makers. JP...DO IT!

8) Did I mention I'm really getting to enjoy watching Glaus?

timpinder - Friday, May 04 2007 @ 08:02 AM EDT (#167199) #

I'll predict an ERA of 4.45 for MKGowan, enough to help the Jays this year and to earn him a spot in the rotation on the 2008 Jays, which is something I really want to see so that we don't lose him.  He'll improve from there.  Last night was his first start!  Against Cleveland!  If he pitched the same way against the Royals he could have left last night's game after 6 innings having allowed 1 or 2 earned runs.   And if the 3rd inning hadn't happened, I bet some people here would be predicting ERA's of 3.85.

As for Ricciardi, he's not that bad!  The team is losing because of injuries and starting pitching.  Ricciardi tried to bring in Meche and Lilly, and was unsuccessful.  Now both of those starters have ERAs under 3.00.  Should Ricciardi have offered those starters $60 million?  If Ricciardi had signed Meche for the dollars the Royals paid him, he'd have been bashed here (I'd have been one of the bashers).  Though so far the Royals seemed to have caught lighting in a bottle.  It's not Ricciardi's fault that Ryan, League, Johnson and Zaun are hurt, and that Glaus was hurt.  Nobody's complaining about Lind.  I'd say Ricciardi scored pretty well on that pick.  Nobody's complaining about Hill.  Snider looks good so far.  Romero, overall, has looked good.  Zack Jackson helped bring in Overbay.  Purcey seems to be turning a corner.  I could go on but I won't.  He's made some mistakes, but he's made some good moves too. 

 

cbugden - Friday, May 04 2007 @ 08:07 AM EDT (#167200) #
I want to be the first one to say this: "FIRE GIBBY!!!"
Paul D - Friday, May 04 2007 @ 08:12 AM EDT (#167201) #
Although I understand that sentiment, I don't like seeing the GM call out the manager in public.  It seems very bush league to me.

Frasor's the closer.  Leaving him in to face the best batter (Well one of them) doesn't seem that bad to me.

dalimon5 - Friday, May 04 2007 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#167227) #
Unless of course Frasor is not a real time closer! Cbugden, I have been putting the idea out there to fire Gibbons for almost 4 weeks now. He just is not managing.

Chuck - Friday, May 04 2007 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#167228) #

Leaving him in to face the best batter (Well one of them) doesn't seem that bad to me.

Leaving in a struggling Frasor to try get Sizemore, a LHB with a huge platoon differential, when Downs was available seemed foolish to me. And it's not like it would have been a LOOGY appearance -- had Downs retired Sizemore, he could have returned in the 9th to face a bunch more LH bats.

Now, whether Ricciardi should have called Gibbons out in public is another matter. But Gibbons exercised some dubious decision-making and has been doing so for awhile now.

greenfrog - Friday, May 04 2007 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#167230) #
To be fair to JP, he wasn't directly criticizing the decision to leave Frasor in. He just said he was going to ask Gibbons about it.
3 May 2007: Looking Around | 21 comments | Create New Account
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