So. wise old Bauxites ... what does this mean for Toronto '07?
The bullpen, and Jason Frasor in particular, has been very strong. If this is only short-term, say for a month, the bullpen will be fine; they can probably even survive the entire season, if it comes to that.
The problem, of course, is the starting rotation: If Towers or Ohka needs to be replaced, taking Janssen, Marcum, or even Zambrano out of the bullpen could hurt.
Unless this really is the year Dustin McGowan puts it all together, but I don't know how much money I'd bet on that. It would be interesting to see what the Astros want for Lidge, but I'm sure they've had plenty of buy-low offers - they're not going to give him away.
We shall see. But it's not as bad as if it had happened last year. I thought the League injury was pretty bad news, but I'm not sure the Jays have really missed him. Ricciardi has done a good job of adding depth to the organization.
It means gloom and doom!!! Jump off a bridge!!! It's over!!!!
I think we're jumping ahead a little. If this is 15 days, and BJ is back to his old self, then it's just 15 days that we need leads bigger than 3. Let's hear the results from the MRI before jumping to any conclusions.
That was mighty impressive, and against a bonafide big league lineup at that.
I'm glad the defense was there to back him up today, and another class move by him tipping his hat after the standing 'o' when some might feel he was within his right not to acknowledge the cheers. The fact that he holds no grudges, and understands that it isn't personal is a testament to his maturity which should bode well for him in the mental aspect of the game going forward. Way to go Josh.
The Jays are going to need a lot more of that if Dr. James Andrews decides to operate...
Hey, I figure if you take the 2006 Blue Jays
Subtract BJ Ryan
Add the Good version of Josh Towers
We're actually in better shape. So if Josh keeps this up..fingers crossed...and MarFrasSen can hold down the fort in the bullpen, we'll be just fine.
The Ryan injury means that the jury is still out on the $110-million spent by the Jays on two free agents last year. Worst case scenario: if Ryan fails to return to form, and if Burnett continues his inconsistent ways, the massive investment on their two long-term contracts might have been a failed gamble.
Best-case scenario: the young arms in the bullpen could make Ryan seem almost expendable.
The Jays are still tied for first place with a 7-5 record today, despite two blown saves. And this team will be even better if Thomas and Wells and Burnett begin to live up to their huge contracts.....
ESPN reports that the walking medical chart Carl Pavano as well as Mike Mussina are going onto the DL. Philip Hughes has not been called up yet.
Relax, we're not the only team injured right now.
And the game's not over yet... Yanks just tied it up on a two run double by Posada. Harden is out, Kennedy is in.
Sometimes unfortunate injuries, like the ones to Johnson and Ryan, lead to opportunities for young players which ultimately benefit the ballclub. I agree that the organization has responded appropriately and quickly to the injuries. Now, it does look like they need a backup outfielder.
Two out, a two run lead, no one on base, the greatest closer of all time on the mound...
Shocking.
Wow, Rivera just imploded in the bottom of the ninth.
He came in with a 4-2 lead, retired the first two then allowed a single, a walk to Kendall who fouled off three straight two strike pitches, and then a 3-run homer to Marco Scutaro (!), on an 0-2 pitch no less.
See, things aren't so bad....
Nice to see Mariano go all BJ and flub one. Wasn't it this time last year that he was doing the same thing and people were starting to write him off?
I was reading Marc's "Scouting Report" on Jamie Vermilyea on Blue Jay Way and I noticed the 6'4" 195 pound BigV has a 2.22 GO/AO ratio. I always likened him as Janssen-Lite. A little less fastball (but with "good bite" as Marc reports) and a good slider.
Because he was Rule 5'd to the Red Sox he has sort of dropped off the prospects lists, but I think he'll be a good guy to have up.
As to the rest of the pitching...with Ryan and League having fallen on their swords...Janssen, Marcum, Accardo, Zambrano etal are going to have to produce...fortunately...I think they can.
Offensively, our future is Rios, Lind, Hill and the future looks exceptionally rosy! However, JohnnyMac, Clayton and Smith are all going to come much closer to earth than they've been flying of late. Hopefully, Wells, Thomas and Overbay can step forward.
As for Thomas, Wells, and Burnett, I am not worried about Wells at all. He was spectacular in the field today and his bat was there at the start and will be there again. Do you remember Burnett's performance down the stretch last year? Yes the Jays were out of the playoffs, but he's going to be there. The main thing is he's healthy...for now. I'm not worried about big Frank either. I still think worst case scenario he finishes at .250/.360/.500 ish with 30 HR and 100 RBI and that's quite an improvement from Sulky Shea and Co. of 2006. Questions for you: You see Frank Thomas hitting .190 prior to today's game. Do you really think that his season's going to continue this way? What about seeing that glorious .405 batting average under Aaron Hill's name? On the first weekend of October, do you really think both of these players will still be hitting what they are now? Just sit back, relax, and enjoy watching or listening to the deepest and best team we've rooted for in years. My only concern is the depth of the position players, but look at how the team did against the AL Champions in the first 6 meetings and you can see the quality is there. Kind of tough to declare a winner in that series of six games, isn't it?
Just to reinforce Joaquin Andujar's famous saying quoted today by Bauxite Gerry. As I've been writing this Mariano Rivera has been struggling with the A's a bit in the bottom of the ninth. With two out, two men on and a 1-2 count to Marco freakin' Scutaro of all people, who was batting a "lusty" (as Tom Cheek, may he rest in peace, used to say) .050 on the season, coming into the at bat. Game over right. Uh, yes but not how you might think. Marco's now batting .095 because he just pulled Mo's pitch down the left field line and off the foul pole to win the game for the A's and more importantly to lose the game for the Yankee$. That's why they play the games, because "youneverknow". Baseball is the greatest game in the world. Do you think the Yankees will throw one of the greatest, if not the greatest, closers ever under the bus for this disgraceful, painful blown save? Um, no. Do you think Marco Scutaro just won a starting job over Ellis, Crosby, or Chavez? Um, no. Anything can happen in a single plate appearance or 100 or so for that matter. But approach 600 plate appearances and things will start to even out. We are 12 games into the season, let's not draw any conclusions, one way or another. We just don't have enough data. To the Bauxite who said it's looking like "The Season From Hell Part 2", let's just take a deep breath and see how it all unfolds before we blindly jump to dire conclusions. Same with the "we're going all the way" crap, which was the popular theme today on Jays Talk. It's 12 games. Let's at least get to the 40 game mark and even then forecasting is stupid. Relax.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6102
DL: You signed Roy Halladay. While he obviously had great potential, did you have any concerns about him?
TW: I did have a few with how his delivery played, and I wasn’t crazy about the fact that he threw a spike-curve, which he had at the time. I’m not a gimmick guy; I’m a lot more meat and potatoes. But I obviously liked his athleticism, and he had tremendous stamina. Roy was a cross-country runner, which a lot of people probably don’t know. And he certainly had good arm speed.
Oddly, though, I don't feel much schadenfreude about Rivera's blowing a save. A loss is a loss.
I was a little relieved about the BJ DL thing. Not that I want him injured, but it's a relief that his inability to throw a strike yesterday had a specific, knowable cause and also that he was wise enough to speak up about it.
And yay! Josh Towers. Now build on it.
Do you know what an awesome idea is for a 1 inning guy like BJ Ryan? Have him throw 35 + pitches. No wonder he's on the DL. I said it before and I'll say it again, management is the weakness of the Blue Jays.
Didn't see the game, but it looks like Towers pitched well. That's great news. I think Frasor has closer stuff in the meantime if he will throw strikes. I also find he has a tough time getting the borderline pitches called.
I know I am new around here, but my wife (and I) had a baby today. One more Maritimer for you lads in Toronto to feed (j/k, we don't all sit on our asses all day long).
Sometimes injuries can just be flukes, but Ryan hasn't been healthy since the start of training camp, so I'm thinking there is probably some relation to that fact and this current setback.
Best-case scenario: the young arms in the bullpen could make Ryan seem almost expendable.
This is either a joke or just not well thought out. That would akin to choosing two or three quick pick lottery tickets over the millions in the wheel barrel ready to roll out.
Are we still paying part of his salary? Hope the answer's no... but I'd welcome him back.... Frank Catalanotto as well to an only slightly lesser degree..
I think Clayton has less than a 50% chance of finishing the year with the Jays, and Stairs less than 30%....
Wouldn't be too sure where Crosby is concerned. He seems like a shadow of his former self and I wouldn't be surprised if he followed Ben Grieve's footsteps (and yes I know Grieve was an outfielder).
actionjackson, I think you misunderstood my previous post, although perhaps I wasn't clear enough. I completely agree with you that Ricciardi was right to sign Ryan and Burnett. It was a good move, but there's always a risk in these kinds of signings and that risk is still there -- and perhaps increasing now. If Ryan blew out his elbow -- and I really hope that isn't true, of course, but there is some possibility of it being true -- then he might never return to his 2006 form. That's always a risk with long-term contracts, of course, and I don't blame Ricciardi for taking a chance on giving him a five-year deal. I'm just saying that the jury is still out on Ryan's five years -- because of the injury fates, not because of a management miscalculation. As for Burnett, I think a little skepticism is still warranted. He had a good stretch run last year, but he's inconsistent again this year. Yes, you can't judge him after three starts, but even Towers has managed one stellar start this year. I'm just asking: how much longer do we have to wait for Burnett to put it together over a full season? People have been waiting many years for him to live up to his potential. I'm an optimist and I'd love to see him do it this year -- but I find it a little frustrating when he continues to be so unpredictable from start to start. If he continues to be inconsistent this year and next year and then leaves town after the 3rd year of his contract, it might have been a miscalculation by the Jays to sign him. I admit that three starts is too early to say much about his 2007 season, but it does fit a pattern.
But then Thames shattered his bat into a double and BJ didn't catch a break and all those walks came around to score along with Thames. It was disappointing but looked like a characteristic BJ downfall. Control failed him, then some hitters made some lucky contact on his nasty stuff.
And while Mariano Rivera had not given up a run until today, he continues to wait to get his first save of the season. It will be interesting to see how he is handled by Torre, if he is pressed into more duty than he can handle because of the gaping wounds in the pitching staff, if he catches the injury bug that is sweeping through there, or if the Yankees trade him and start the inevitable, slow, rebuilding process [snicker, snicker].
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/Home_MLB.aspx
If surgery is the best long-term option, then I think he should do it. Lind can hold down the fort for May and June.
Sorry, but they kind of do look similar. :)
It's unclear on Rotoworld, but I wonder if 2 months is the time that it will take him to be healthy enough to start playing again (i.e. he'd start a rehab assignment in 2 months) or else if 2 months is the time until he's back on the major league roster. I imagine it's the former (I have no knowledge at all about back surgery, but like you I think 2 months sounds short) in which case I could see the layoff closer to 2 and a half months, unless they rush him back like they did with Rios last year.
Look at the current pitching staff: the bullpen is entirely made up of J.P.'s draft picks and acquisitions and in the starting staff, only Gus Chacin and Roy Halladay were here pre-J.P. and Halladay has re-signed twice since J.P. got here, so you might as well count him too. Pretty good record, considering all the bashers out there.
I will however continue to hound him (not in the stalking sense) until he addresses the pathetic depth of the position players. He just needs to take the same obsessive, maniacal, hell-bent approach that he used to build up the depth of the pitching staff and apply it to getting multi-positional players in here to replace some of the redundancies with badly needed help in the areas that are somewhat lacking: back-up OF, left side of the infield, backup middle infield etc. It just needs to be re-jigged a bit and a current weakness can become if not a strength, then a non-liability. Surely, this type of player is easier to acquire than a pitcher. If he's not going to go with a six man bullpen, and he never has, then a super utility type becomes quite important, or just a couple of solid back-up players. I love Matt Stairs, but barring injuries to the only two positions he is capable of defending (one of which does not require defending), I don't see the fit, except as a pinch hitter, which requires the 6 man bullpen, which is not going to happen. McDonald is a great guy too, but redundant. Unless there's someone in the system that I don't know about, something has to be done to address that bench, but then again that was discussed here all winter. It is frustrating to see that underbelly exposed so quickly, but I remain optimistic, particularly about the pitching. What kind of backups might be available that could help?
A couple of free agent OF's that I never heard of them signing who still might be available are:
Terrence Long - He's not good at all offensively, but I think he's a better fit given our make-up than John MacDonald (same type of player, but we need OF's, not IF's).
Todd Hollandsworth - he's versatile and not too bad with the bat.
If they are healthy, and even if they did sign, I think both could probably be had for one of those Johnny Mac to Cleveland type deals that we did where the deal is essentially for cash - I don't think either is playing in the bigs right now.
Even if the worst-case scenario happens and B.J. does need season-ending surgery, it's still to early to evaluate the wisdom of signing him: He could be back on the field by the All-Star game next year, and conceivably give the Jays 3.5 good seasons in 5 years.
But let's not get ahead of ourselves...
Hollandsworth and Long ... ick.
Long has been terrible for a while and if I recall right didn't even hack it at Columbus (AAA NYY) last year. Hollandsworth is consistently a 75 OPS+ guy and has a career mark shy of 100 that's only that high because of all his time in Coors and, to a lesser extent, Wrigley.
And either would command a seven-figure (or high six-figure anyway) "veteran's" salary. They would have made nice fourtha and fifth outfielders around 1999-2002 ... maybe. You might actually get more (offensively) out of Sierra, and no, I am not suggesting that be an option.
However, your starting shortstop is Royce Clayton.
Even if the worst-case scenario happens and B.J. does need season-ending surgery, it's still to early to evaluate the wisdom of signing him: He could be back on the field by the All-Star game next year, and conceivably give the Jays 3.5 good seasons in 5 years.
Not only that, but even if his arm became detached from his body today, it would still have been a good signing at the time. He is a young, bonafide, shut down closer, and one of the best at it. He had no prior history of arm trouble. This was proven in his first year and minus the injury would have continued/continues this year and very likely years into the future. If we signed players because they might get injured, there wouldn't be 25 players on the roster.