I wonder if some of those 4.82% who voted for Seattle in our poll watched Felix pitch yesterday, and decided that they were watching a rerun of the early years of Dwight Gooden.

The Jays won, so it seems churlish to even offer muted criticism, but...If you're going to work Casey Janssen in using the Earl Weaver plan, that means "low leverage" for at least a month or two.  Seventh through ninth inning of a tie game does not qualify as "low leverage".  The whole idea is that sometimes a young pitcher needs to work out a few kinks (like pitching from the stretch) without being under pressure, before assuming the starting role. The alternative is to put him directly into the rotation, and be done with it. 

Aside from the win, I was happy to see the Jays drawing six walks, especially Reed leading off the game.  Then two stolen bases!   In the same inning!  Did Vernon decide in the off-season to increase his fantasy value?

It has always seemed kind of goofy to me that a pitcher can earn a win by getting an out or two the inning before his team takes the lead.  I mean, if you had to give the win to any of the relievers yesterday, Janssen might have earned it more than Frasor, but Jason had better timing (although it was Gibby's decision to bring Frasor in, so maybe the manager himself should get credited with the win?).

It has always seemed kind of goofy to me that a pitcher can earn a win by getting an out or two the inning before his team takes the lead. 

Which is probably why relievers' won-lost records are almost always ignored. Unless you get a Dennis Lamp 11-0 thing happening or something.

  I think I have to respectfully disagree with Mike Green on the Janssen issue.  In bullpen selection, I think a manger has to go with the hot hand.  Janssen had an amazing spring.  His ERA was something like 1.38 and he had an incredible ratio of 18 strikeouts and only one walk.  Jeff Blair says he was the best Jays reliever of the spring.  Gibbons says Janssen could be "dominating" in the middle-relief role.  (The quote is from today's Globe.)  What's more, Janssen mowed through the Tigers lineup, retiring 7 batters on 25 pitches.    He even managed to hit 96 mph on the radar gun at one point.  There are a lot of question marks about the Jays bullpen, so surely Gibbons has to give preference to whoever looks the strongest, regardless of perceived roles. 

    If Janssen remains as dominant as he was today, I'd definitely give him a chance in the rotation.

Well, last year, they called up Janssen after 9 double A starts into the rotation because he was "hot", and that didn't work out so well...

It has always seemed kind of goofy to me that a pitcher can earn a win by getting an out or two the inning before his team takes the lead.

What's worse are the pitchers who "steal" the win by coming in and blowing the lead, and then get bailed out while they are still the pitcher of record and wind up getting the win.

If the Jays are prepared to test Pudge Rodriguez's arm, then you have to think they're serious about putting runners in motion. In both cases yesterday, an on-target throw by Rodriguez would've nailed both Johnson and Wells, but he seemed as shocked as the rest of us that a Blue Jay was apparently trying to steal a base.

It looks to me less like a new offensive philosophy, however, and more like the Jays understand that putting the runners in motion is the only way to avoid a potentially record-setting display of double plays this year. That said, I admire the aggressiveness and the decision to to bring the game to the other team. If they keep this up, though, the Jays definitely will lose the element of surprise, and successful steals may become harder to come by.

Are we going to have to deal with the videotaped player introductions with every first at-bat on Sportsnet this year? Because that was just painful yesterday -- the players weren't even consistent with the details they provided about themselves. And making them give their uniform numbers is just embarrassing -- it's a direct lift from the NFL, where giving out numbers is necessary because it's the only way to tell the helmeted behemoths apart. It's not baseball, and it doesn't work here. Please let this be only an Opening Day thing.

Finally, apropos of nothing, but I haven't seen this raised here yet -- who thought it was a good idea to give Robert MacLeod the Blue Jays' beat in the Globe? Aside from his painful lack of knowledge about the game -- calling Nate Robertson "Nate Robinson" in yesterday's paper -- he writes as if he's addressing high-school readers with only a minimum knowledge of baseball. Larry Millson wasn't anything special, but he knew the game and assumed his readers knew as much or more than he did. And unlike MacLeod, he wasn't clearly in awe of Frank Thomas.

Aside from all that, nice win. But they'll need those kinds of bullpen performances on a regular basis throughout the year.

It is great to have baseball back!  Yesterday's game couldn't have been better.

As usual I agree with Mike Green.  Janssen should be stretched out in less important innings, at least for the next little while.

Some thoughts:
- Janssen looks good.  I'd get him in the rotation by May if Chacin, Ohka, or Towers really struggle (though I think Towers will surprise a little by being a consistently average 5th starter).
- I'm comfortable with Clayton at SS.  I know he won't hit much and I don't expect him to make any spectacular plays, but he should be consistent and I'm not worried about bobbled balls and throws sailing 10' over Overbay's head.
- I don't like Overbay 2nd and Rios 6th.  In the 6th inning with Thomas at 1st base and Rios at the plate, I thought, 'If Rios hits a tripple here, he's getting a double".  Rios' speed would be better utilized in the #2 hole for a number of reasons, in my opinion.
- Frasor is going to be a fine replacement for League.  He was very good after adjusting his approach in AAA last year, and his slider looks nasty. 
-The "T" hats are growing on me.  I think I'll get one today.
-I wish we had Zumaya.  Man, his stuff is filthy.  He could be the best closer in the game in a couple of years.

I can't wait until tomorrow!  You know you have a problem when you use up a week of vacation just to be off for the opening week of the baseball season.

 

First game of the season and Gibbons already had me tearing my hair out.   Why you would bring in anyone other than your best pitcher in a late tie game on the road (where a run = you lose) is something I will never, ever understand.  When I saw Doc leaving I prayed that Gibbons had changed from last year.  Then I saw Scott Downs trotting in and I started to sob.

But hey, we won.

I watched the last couple innings of King Felix's start last night, and he looked unhittable.  In addition to whiffing 12 batters, he also did not allow a fly ball.  That's right: 24 outs, 12 by K, and 12 by GB.  He was just nasty.  Hopefully the Mariners don't ruin his arm.

Having an off-day after the opener isn't fair.

If you're going to work Casey Janssen in using the Earl Weaver plan, that means "low leverage" for at least a month or two...The alternative is to put him directly into the rotation, and be done with it.

Ridiculous.

Asking Janssen to give you 2.1 quality innings is a lot easier than asking him to give you 5 or 6.  He's been throwing well and the team's normal 7th inning arm has been pushed into later duties due to League's injury.  Your argument would make more sense if a) you told us who was better qualified to pitch the 7th and 8th; and b) Janssen had pitched poorly - he didn't.  You are overanalyzing things when you start criticizing a managerial decision that worked to perfection. 

Just because Marcum and Janssen are on the Weaver plan doesn't mean Gibbons should show no flexibility with them.  As a rookie In '84 Key was used in the same manner and wound up with 10 saves.  I don't remember Cox taking any heat for it at the time.  Mike, I respect your knowledge of the game (in fact I learn quite bit from it), but I think this criticism is a complete non-starter.

Well, last year, they called up Janssen after 9 double A starts into the rotation because he was "hot", and that didn't work out so well...

Didn't it go quite well until he hurt his back and failed to mention it to anyone?  here's his game log from last year, draw your own conclusions.

Obviously when I said Halladay I meant Janssen.

For the most part, I was pleased with Gibby's decision to take Halladay out after 6 innings. It's a long season and it didn't make sense for me to keep him in. Janssen coming into a tied game was a gutsy move and it paid off. He was on his game, mowing down all 7 batters! I was not pleased to see Downs come in as a situational lefty for SEAN CASEY!  The guy has not hit for power in for 2 years now(ASIDE: Isn't it curious that his power numbers dipped when baseball started checking for 'roids). Janssen was perfect thus far and should have had a shot at Casey and even Monroe who had struck out 3 times at that point. Downs coming in for one batter is something I will have to get used to considering that he is the only lefty in the 'pen aside from B.J. I liked Downs' ability to eat innings sort of like how Janssen did yesterday but oh well, I guess I could wait a month or so ...when Chacin takes over the LOOGY role?

Anyway, 'twas fun. I can't wait until tomorrow's game!

Off today? Does this mean the Jays skip the 5th spot in the rotation (Towers), or just get it over with and throw him out there?

Janssen again looked great in relief, just like spring training games. While it's good to see, and if he continues he'll likely pitch himself into the rotation, don't forget that relieving is a different beast than starting. Some pitchers, when given 25 pitches to throw, can crank it up a lot (all star games often show this, with starters adding 3-4 mph to fastballs), and Janssen may be best suited to this role for now. Same goes for Downs. I can see needing 2 innings after a starter a couple of times a week;  maybe Janssen can be like Scot Shields from Anaheim has been for years. League was supposed to help fill this role, of course, but the Jays don't have him right now.

Some thoughts:

* I'm not a big fan of all these afternoon games to start the season.  Watching the live box score at work only does so much, and watching the game after the fact doesn't have a lot of appeal.

* I agree with Tim - even if Clayton doesn't have great range you know when he does get the ball he'll get it to first.  It's nice not to have to worry where the throw will end up when it's released.  Of course, having a SS that can do that and hit would be even better.

* I had no issue with Janssen pitching the 7th and 8th yesterday.  He's not particularly young and he's not new to the majors.  There shouldn't be much of a fear factor there.  Plus, in the 7th the other alternatives were Accardo and Marcum (assuming you're saving Downs for a lefty and Frasor for later and Zambrano is unavailable).  I don't know why they'd be better alternatives than Janssen at that point.  And that's why Gibbons gets paid to make decisions - he thought Janssen was the best option in that spot.

* I love relievers that go multiple innings (not including games where the starter gets knocked out early).  The Jays have Janssen, Marcum, and Zambrano who can each do that now.  It'll be interesting to see if they're used that way in close games like yesterday.

* It seems the typical procedure for a publication is to have a game story and a notes column for each game (which usually doesn't tell you anything you didn't know already).  Which is why Blair's column on Janssen was a terrific read this morning.

Rich, Jimmy Key was used in low leverage situations in 1984, and I felt that it served him well in the long run.

I like multiple inning usage of relievers too.  In a tight game now, I would have recommended that the ball be given to Marcum for 2 or 3 innings (with Zambrano a second choice).  The club has said that they were trying to bring along Janssen the Weaver way, but what this choice was simply "riding the hot hand".  That was not  Earl's way in April at all. Fortunately, Janssen may be ready anyway, and so it may not matter.

Actually, Key  was used quite a bit in high leverage situations in 1984.  My memory failed me.  Sigh.

Thoughts:

• Loved the walks.  Couple of more hits would have been nice, but way to grind out 6 BB's.  Makes the offensive line for the game look a bit better (especially considering after the 1st inning there wasn't much in the way of offence).

• I was beyond shocked to see the two steals in the 1st inning.  I'm not expecting much of that, but I suppose when properly utilized, it could be effective.

• Janssen pitched amazing.  The usual refrain throughout ST has been "we need a young pitcher to break out".  Casey looks like he wants that to be him.

• I love it how people are arguing about Gibby's strategy when it worked to perfection!  Shows that people care - I love the intense interest that is always found on the BB.  Great stuff.
  

I think it's pretty clear that when the Jays' braintrust discuss implementing the "Weaver Way" with regards to Janssen, they are speaking about it conceptually rather than with an eye to all the fine details.  Which is fine - there is more than one way to skin a fish and the Jays have to balance player development considerations with the need to win ballgames.

I was a little surprised at first when they brought him in, but on reflection, it probably was the most sensible option.  Zambrano was apparently unavailable yesterday, and it was too early for Ryan and Frasor.  That left Downs (which would have meant burning your situational lefty), Accardo (who I don't think the Jays are comfortable stretching out beyond an inning) and Marcum.  Accardo in the seventh could have been a bridge to Frasor in the eighth, but in a tie ballgame with a strong Detroit bullpen the likelihood of needing multiple innings from the first guy out of the pen leaves Marcum and Janssen the two most likely possibilities.  I don't think that Marcum is appreciably further along than Janssen, so either way you pick your poison and hope you have the right guy on the right day.  So far, so good.   

Janssen looked sweet. He is clearly the best of the "Bush" type control pitchers, Bush included. With a rising four seamer that can hit the mid-90's and a darting 2 seamer in the low 90's, and nice complementary stuff, he is the real deal. He is the ONLY real number 3 guy on the team. He will assume his destiny when one of Chacin, Ohka and Towers stumbles...and I assure you...we will be over the moon delighted if only one stumbles. In addition to Janssen, Zambrano and Marcum are well average back-ups.

Remember the name Magee. He is Janssen two. He will make an appearance by September and join Roy, AJ and Janssen in the rotation by mid-08.

In the mean time, in between time (until League gets back) won't we have fun!

Yesterday, in a basball orgy I watched the Jay's game, the Boston game (on mlb tv - I broke down and am trying it for a month) the Twins game and the nighcapper. I LOVE opening day! Why are my eyes blurry?

If the Jays are prepared to test Pudge Rodriguez's arm, then you have to think they're serious about putting runners in motion.

I was beyond shocked to see the two steals in the 1st inning.  I'm not expecting much of that, but I suppose when properly utilized, it could be effective.

I think Gibbons was just reading the Advance Scout. Runners stole off of Bonderman at a 87.5% clip. Don't expect to see much of that against Robertson (64.3%) or Verlander (16.7%). I didn't believe that last number either, so I double-checked. Runners went 1 for 6 off of Verlander last year. Word travels fast apparently.

Does anybody know if Friday's game is on Rogers Preview Channel for digital cable subscribers? Most games that haven't aired in the last 2 years were on that channel and I just got a cable box., so I sure hope they still put up the game. I'm even willing to deal with D-Rays announcers.

Off today? Does this mean the Jays skip the 5th spot in the rotation (Towers), or just get it over with and throw him out there?

Halladay on Saturday, Towers on Sunday.  What I like about it is that it breaks up the Chacin, Ohka, and Towers.  You know Halladay is going to give you innings, and most times so will Burnett.  But if there's a couple games in a row where the starter gets rocked it'll eat up the bullpen.

My only complaint has to be bringing in Downs for the one batter. He's not a LOOGY! He's durable, can pitch an inning or two at a time, and can handle right-handed batters quite capably. I could understand bringing him in to face David Ortiz or someone of that calibre, but Sean Casey? (actually, for the past couple years he's been more effective against lefties than righties)

Janssen was cruising, and probably could have handled a couple more batters. If you wanted to be cautious, fine, put Downs in - but he's good enough to handle Monroe & Inge as well.

Maybe that's too much complaining for an opening-day win. But the Jays' pen has several guys who can go multiple innings at a time - I really hope Gibbons avoids playing musical chairs.

I think Gibby did a good job with the bullpen.  We can overanalyze and find fault, but why not overanalyze and give credit where due.

Janssen pitched on Friday and Saturday.  Gibbons went to him, knowing he was more confident in him over Marcum/Accardo at this point in time (Zambrano was unavailable, Downs/Frasor/Ryan would be kept for later innings).  I think Gibbons probably felt that two innings S/B Janssen's limit, given his recent workload, but decided to send him out for one more batter and then bring in Downs for the lefty.  Which worked fine - until Downs walked the lefty.  Downs was likely not supposed to ONLY face the lefty, but was sent a message by Gibby for farting around and walking the lefty.  So he yanked him and brought in Frasor and inning or two before he wanted to.  Which again worked well.

So no complaints, except that Downs walked a lefty!!!  Let's not blame Gibby for that.

Has there been anything released on CBC's airing of games for the year yet?

Perhaps Gibby should be using the right-handed throwing Accardo as the specialist lefty killer, at least until he proves himself capable of doing more.

Against left-handed hitters, Accardo has performed better than Downs over their short careers:

Accardo:  .224 AVG / .300 OBP / .309 SLG
Downs:  .242 AVG / .311 OBP / .375 SLG

(From Fox Sports)

 

And making them give their uniform numbers is just embarrassing -- it's a direct lift from the NFL... Please let this be only an Opening Day thing.

It's actually been going at the ball[park for the last few years, ten or fifteen minutes before game-time when the starting lineup is introduced on the scoreboard. There are glitzy graphics, and the player wanders into the shot and tells you where he's from and what number he wears.

And making them give their uniform numbers is just embarrassing -- it's a direct lift from the NFL, where giving out numbers is necessary because it's the only way to tell the helmeted behemoths apart. It's not baseball, and it doesn't work here.

Considering that this is a team and broadcast is trying to turn non-fans into fans, I think it's a good idea for people to see the face of the players and can then look for their numbers on the broadcast. You can't always make out the name on the back, and if people who might not know the team as well as "fans" would can pick apart players on the screen based on the numbers, and attach that face to the name.

It might be seem as some minor annoyance to fans who already know the face, number, and birthplace of our stars, but it's all in the good interest of appealing to future fan bases, spread all over the country. If I were taking a minor interest to a team I know nothing about, such as the Seibu Lions, I can only speak for myself, but I would find it helpful to attach each players face to their number and position.

Janssen looked sweet. He is clearly the best of the "Bush" type control pitchers, Bush included.

Hey, I like Janssen too, but why are you willing to declare this in such strong terms, presumably based on a good spring?

Bush had a fabulous year in Milwaukee last year and I fully expect him to be an above average starter for the next decade or so. It's akin to saying Francisco Liriano is clearly the best of the "Santana" type lefties, including Santana.

The day games this week sure do make viewing tough. So does the fact that the American cable companies have apparently lost their bid to keep the MLB Extra Innings package to DirecTV. Anyone know what's going on with this process? I'd really hate to have to go to a dish just for the Jays, but if that's what it takes... Sorry for the wildly off topic post, I tried a bridge with something more tangible in the first sentence, but it didn't work very well. Anyone else waiting this "negotiation" out without having Extra Innings?

In another off topic thought, I'm going to see everyone's friend, Ted Lilly, battle former AL East opponent Bronson Arroyo tomorrow here in Cincy. I'm not sure how I'll treat him, I'll be rooting against his team, but I suppose I wish no ill-will on him personally.

Milwaukee

The key word being Milwaukee.  The leagues are so uneven at this point, Janssen would be better in Milwaukee then Bush was last year.  Even by ERA+ Bush was at 102 and Janssen was at 93.  Throw in the difference in the leagues and that is just about even last year.

Dayn Perry has posted his 'top 10 opening day roster omissions'. Lind is #4. Although logical on its face (adding Lind to the roster would ostensibly create a productive platoon situation in LF), Lind's inclusion on this list seems basically ignorant of the Jays' overall situation. Johnson proved he can play full-time last year (and had a terrific spring); he deserves the benefit of the doubt, at least to start the season. And giving Lind two or three months in Syracuse does three things: (1) gives the Jays control over Lind for an extra year (cost issues being important when your rivals are New York and Boston); (2) allows Lind to establish some semblance of LF defensive skills (which typically don't show up in the boxscore); (3) lets him play full-time to start the season (allowing him to consolidate last year's gains and confirm that he belongs on the big club).

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6634638

and what's with pinch running for overbay on 3rd?

It seemed pretty straight forward to me. Glaus hits flyballs for a living. Overbay is not a fast runner. Scoring this runner probably gives you something like a 90% chance of winning the game. Overbay probably scores on a flyball to the track, but certainly not a mid outfield catch. Smith would stand a much greater chance. Now the only way you could ever regret taking Overbay out is the game went to the 12th. (Well the 2nd spot hitting in the 11th inning would be possible, but unlikely. One of those five surely would have to cash in the winning rbi before it got to Overbay).

So the odds that you don't score in the 10th, and that theres bases loaded 2 outs in the 11th, or the game goes to the 12th, seem much less possible than winning the game right there in the 10th. I completely agree with pinch running with Smith.

The key word being Milwaukee.  The leagues are so uneven at this point, Janssen would be better in Milwaukee then Bush was last year.  Even by ERA+ Bush was at 102 and Janssen was at 93.  Throw in the difference in the leagues and that is just about even last year.

Doesn't ERA+ account for league differences?  [runs to TheHardBallTimes.com]  Yep, apparently the stat accounts for league differences, which helps out Bush's case: 

ERA measured against the league average, and adjusted for ballpark factors. An ERA+ over 100 is better than average, less than 100 is below average.

Before Spring Training, I was higher on Marcum's potential than I was on Janssen; after seeing both of them pitch last year, I though Marcum's pure stuff was a notch ahead.  However, this spring I've noticed in the little I've watched Janssen pitch that he seems to have both more movement and velocity on his pitches.  I'm not sure if this is an improvement that will carry over if starts games or if it's simply a result of pitching out of the bullpen.  Whatever it is, I think Marcum and Janssen could give JP some interesting options this summer either as trade bait or to fill the rotation if one of Okha, Towers or Chacin is traded.

Jim,

There is no objective way, in comparing Bush's two years in Toronto to Janssen's 2006, that anyone can correctly state that Janssen is clearly better. Bush had the better ERC, ERA and strikeout rate; their walk and homerun rates were comparable. Janssen's minor league numbers are not superior to Bush's either.

Bush is now an established major league starting pitcher; Janssen is currently working in long relief in his first full season in the major leagues. I can't fathom how anyone would suggest that Janssen is clearly better (not saying you did, but that was the post I was responding to).

Time will tell, and Janssen may well end up with a better career. But I put it at 80/20 that Bush, based on being an established picther and the one who's shown the superior strikeout rate, ends up with a more valuable career.

But we're talking pitching, wherein developing a new pitch can be the equivalent of an entire pitching makeover. Just ask JJ Putz or Mike Scott.

Doesn't ERA+ account for league differences?

It accounts for the run difference between the leagues, but it doesn't account for the difficulty between the leagues.  If it does and I'm wrong I apologize, do you have a link that shows how it calculates league difficulty.

I can't fathom how anyone would suggest that Janssen is clearly better

I am not necessarily saying that.  I'm saying that in 2007 it's much more gray then the 2006 numbers might say. 

A straight measure of strikeout rates is difficult due to the leagues. 
Case in point Jeremy Accardo, Small sample sizes but...
NL: 8.9 k/9
AL: 4.4 k/9

Look at Bush himself:
AL 2006: 5.0 k/9
NL 2007: 7.1 k/9

Drop Bush back into the American League East and you might not be able to tell the difference by the end of 2007.

If you are a free agent pitcher and don't sign in the National League you are insane. 

If you are a free agent pitcher and don't sign in the National League you are insane.

Gil Meche has 55 million pieces of evidence to the contrary.

Bush is a good pitcher, but is extremely vulnerable to the home run. In Milwaukee last year, he allowed 26 home runs. In Toronto in 2005, he allowed 20 big flies in only 136 1/3 innings.

I think Bush is a serviceable major league starter, but Toronto was a poor fit for him. And I'm very happy with Overbay's offensive and defensive production at first base. It's all good.

Janssen is definitely showing more raw stuff this year than last. He's fun to watch: he employs the old-school Tom Seaver drop and drive delivery.

THT reported that the gap between AL quality and NL quality narrowed last season, though the AL is still considered the superior league.

I remember when this town was ga-ga over a pitcher who had burst onto the scene - went by the name of Mauro Gozzo.

All I'm saying is - let the kid put together a couple of solid major league seasons before we start with the superlatives.

Homerun rates:

Bush05: 11 HR in 412 BF
Bush06: 20 HR in 575 BF
Bush07: 26 HR in 869 BF (Milwaukee)
Janssen06: 12 HR in 407 BF

So Janssen's HR rate is virtually identical to Bush's rookie year.

26 homers in 869, especially considering 166K/38W isn't all that bad.

I recall a guy who struck out a lot of batters, walked very very few, but gave up a bunch of homers. Fellow by the name of Bert Blyleven. I think that K/W ratio, which even for the NL is well above average for starters, argues strongly in favour of Bush's success as a big league pitcher.