First, second or third
The Sox will once again be
Beantown’s obsession

If I could have only one rule to live by when Opening Day is just hours away, it would be “don’t start a new job on the first Monday in April.” Unfortunately, I’m breaking that rule this season. But fortunately, I have another rule to live by, and that’s “when Mike Green calls and tells you to preview the Red Sox and to use plenty of haikus, you do it.” Now, some might point out – quite correctly -- that the verses that describe the key members of Boston’s Opening Day roster are in fact not haikus but senryus, since haikus are supposed to be exclusively about nature. But others may well retort – again, correctly – that haiku snobs should really just keep their highfalutin classifications to themselves, especially since far cruder attempts, both well- and ill-intentioned, at mimicking Japanese customs and culture will follow the 2006 Boston Red Sox everywhere they go in light of their prized acquisition who will dominate headlines throughout the season.

Will Daisuke Matsuzaka lead the Red Sox back to the postseason this year? Read on for my humble opinion.

2006: Third Place?

It was a disappointing season for the perennial contenders from Beantown. Too many players lost too many games to injury, and too many players played too hurt in too many games. Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz were, as usual, the most fearsome offensive duo in the sport (though Manny only made it into 130 games), and Jonathan Papelbon was a revelation at closer before he himself was shut down. Disappointing performances by prized (and costly) acquisitions Josh Beckett and Coco Crisp hurt, and Jason Varitek, Trot Nixon and Matt Clement each battled injuries and ineffectiveness. Thus, even this deep and dangerous club didn’t really sniff the playoffs in ’06, just two years removed from their only championship in their last 89 seasons.

The sheer intensity of the relationship between Red Sox Nation, the Boston media and the Red Sox themselves is truly staggering. Sure, New Englanders are fond of the Patriots, the model Foxboro franchise with three recent titles. But even in the heat of the NFL season, the Red Sox couldn’t get off the front pages of Boston sports sections if they tried. So it mattered – my goodness, did it matter – when the Sox staggered down the stretch and placed third behind the hated Yankees and your Fighting Jays. It was thus inevitable: Changes were bound to happen with the Boston roster.

Over the course of the offseason, the Red Sox, as usual, spent money like water. Everyone knows about the $51 million – up front – merely for the right to then negotiate a lucrative contract for Dice-K with Scott Boras, but let’s not forget that there are two other huge-money free agent signings (J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo), plus a few smaller ones (e.g., Brendan Donnelly). Few batted an eye at these signings, though, because while clubs like the D-Rays are the slim and figure-conscious sister who gets tut-tutted by Mom with dinner-table comments like “Do you really need to eat that dinner roll?,” the Red Sox are the husky brother plowing through his third heaping bowl of ice cream across the table. In other words, the Red Sox are an undisputed and universally recognized “have” in baseball economics, and will be as long as there are relative “haves” in baseball. The Red Sox did save some money by letting go of Trot Nixon, Mark Loretta, Keith Foulke, Alex Gonzalez and David Wells.

Let’s see how the roster looks after these moves.

The Lineup

The captain and longtime catcher of the Bosox, Jason Varitek, returns for yet another season of everyday duty. As always, ‘Tek is beloved in Boston and universally respected. But I have a challenge for you, dear reader. WITHOUT PEEKING, I would like you to write down Jason Varitek’s batting average and OPS from 2006. Then scroll down and check out his stats. If you’re like me, you overestimated both metrics by 30-50 points, and it goes to show how quickly a catcher’s bat can age, even in this era of super-fit veterans (and he has hit extremely poorly this spring, too). Nonetheless, the Sox struggled mightily without Varitek in the lineup last season, and a bounce-back year is essential.

Theo Epstein got a steal of a deal when he shipped longtime backup catcher Doug Mirabelli to the Padres for the useful Mark Loretta. However, with no other catcher on hand capable of handling Tim Wakefield’s knucklers, Epstein swallowed hard and coughed up Cla Meredith and Josh Bard to repatriate Mirabelli, who adds very little offensively but can at least catch Wakefield’s floaters. Old friend Kevin Cash is in the Boston organization but will start the year with the PawSox.

On the corners, Kevin Youkilis plays an athletic first base and works counts expertly. His power, however, is not what the Red Sox would like (as evidenced by their aggressive run at Todd Helton this offseason). At third, Mike Lowell proved me wrong in ’06; I thought he was done as a hitter, but in the cozy confines of Fenway Park, Lowell was a doubles machine while continuing to supply superb defence. Old friend Eric Hinske will back up both corners and right field, and we all know what the Dude can (and can’t) do.

Up the middle, the shiny new shortstop and leadoff hitter is Julio Lugo, as he replaces Alex Gonzalez (who replaced Edgar Renteria, who replaced Orlando Cabrera). The Sox overpaid for Lugo, but he was by far the best shortstop on the market; he’s a fine contact hitter, he runs well and judiciously and he has a cannon of an arm (though he can be erratic with the glove). At second, Dustin Pedroia’s terrible rookie struggles last season have been attributed to “tightness” and an inability to “relax.” The problem is, even if he does relax, does Pedroia have the upside to be anything more than serviceable at second base? Alex Cora was delighted to receive a two-year, $4 million extension, and he’s waiting in the wings to provide skilled glovework should Pedroia continue to be overmatched; he went 40 games without an error in his utility role last season.

The corner outfield is set. Manny Ramirez is always an adventure defensively in the outfield (and not always in a bad way), but he is, quite simply, one of the finest righthanded hitters of our generation. With patience, skill and monstrous power, only injuries can prevent him from putting up video-game numbers again. As for right field, J.D. Drew accepted big money to patrol the expansive right field area and to get on base regularly. It’s trite and old news to note that he’s a major injury risk, but it’s important to mention it anyway. He doesn’t run like he used to, but he remains a talented all-around ballplayer when he can stay on the field.

Coco Crisp is still feeling stiffness in his surgically repaired finger that vexed him all last season after injuring it in the season’s first week, although he says that his shoulder – also recently injured – should be fine to start the ’07 campaign. In any event, he may benefit from hitting eighth this season, rather than the pressure-packed Boston leadoff spot. Three True Outcomes type Wily Mo Pena remains at the ready to fill in for injuries, which will likely strike all three starting outfielders to varying degrees. Down on the farm, Jacoby Ellsbury has drawn comparisons to Johnny Damon for his blend of on-base skills and defensive acumen, though the slightly built Ellsbury is unlikely to develop Damon’s oft-overlooked pop.

At DH, David “Big Papi” Ortiz only gets better with age. He’s selective and unflappable, and this middle-of-the-order force is a lock to post a four-digit OPS and to place in the top 10 in MVP voting. Veteran super-sub Joe McEwing has been told he will not make the big club, and is deciding whether to accept an assignment to AAA.

Shall we to the hack poetry? Yes, let’s.

C: #33 Jason Varitek
.238/.325/.400, 46 R, 12 HR, 55 RBI, 46 BB, 87 K, 1-for-3 SB, 103 G
Best season in last five ("BSLF"): 2004 -- .296/.390/.482, 137 G
Age: 35 in April

His shocking decline:
Due to injuries? Bad luck?
Or might ‘Tek be done?

1B: #20 Kevin Youkilis
.279/.381/.429, 100 R, 13 HR, 72 RBI, 91 BB, 120 K, 5-for-7 SB, 147 G
BSLF: 2006
Age: 28 as of March

The “Greek God of Walks”
Really makes pitchers work, but
Isn’t really Greek

2B: #64 Dustin Pedroia
.191/.258/.303, 5 R, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 7 BB, 7 K, 0-for-1 SB, 31 G
BSLF: 2006
Age: 24 in August

Replacing Mark Loretta (.285/.345/.361, 75 R, 5 HR, 59 RBI, 49 BB, 63 K, 4-for-5 SB, 155 G)

Boston may not be
Patient with this player who
Still needs improvement

SS: #23 Julio Lugo
.278/.341/.421, 69 R, 12 HR, 37 RBI, 39 BB, 76 K, 24-for-33 SB, 122 G with Devil Rays and Dodgers
BSLF: 2005 with Devil Rays -- .295/.362/.403, 39 SB in 158 G
Age: 32 in November

Replacing Alex Gonzalez (.255/.299/.397, 48 R, 9 HR, 50 RBI, 22 BB, 67 K, 1-for-1 SB, 111 G)

Dodger disaster
But dangerous Devil Ray
Got dollars. Makes sense?

3B: #25 Mike Lowell
.284/.339/.475, 79 R, 20 HR, 80 RBI, 47 BB, 61 K, 2-for-4 SB, 153 G
BSLF: 2004 with Marlins -- .293/.365/.505 in 158 games
Age: 33 as of February

Bounced back quite nicely
From his disastrous ’05.
Good bat and great glove

LF: #24 Manny Ramirez
.321/.439/.619, 79 R, 35 HR, 102 RBI, 100 BB, 102 K, 0-for-1 SB, 130 G
BSLF: 2003 -- .325/.427/.587, 117 R in 154 G
Age: 35 in May

Sox fans again get
To see Manny belt homers
And “being Manny”

CF: #10 Coco Crisp
.264/.317/.385, 58 R, 8 HR, 36 RBI, 31 BB, 67 K, 22-for-26 SB, 105 G
BSLF: 2005 with Indians -- .300/.345/.465, 86 R, 42 2B, 16 HR in 145 games
Age: 28 in November

Absolutely must
Stay healthy and get on base
But he’s no Damon

RF: #7 J.D. Drew
.283/.393/.498, 84 R, 20 HR, 100 RBI, 89 BB, 106 K, 2-for-5 SB, 146 G with Dodgers
BSLF: 2004 with Braves -- .305/.436/.569, 118 R, 31 HR, 118 BB in 145 games
Age: 32 in November

Replacing Trot Nixon (.268/.373/.394, 59 R, 8 HR, 52 RBI, 60 BB, 56 K, 0-for-2 SB, 114 G)

Which will sever first --
His relationship with fans?
Or a ligament?

DH: #34 David Ortiz
.287/.413/.636, 115 R, 54 HR, 137 RBI, 119 BB, 117 K, 1-for-1 SB, 151 G
BSLF: 2006
Age: 32 in November

Very imposing
Super intimidating
And still improving

Bench

1B/3B #12 Eric Hinske
.271/.353/.487, 43 R, 13 HR, 34 RBI, 35 BB, 79 K, 2-for-4 SB, 109 G
BSLF: 2002 with Blue Jays -- .279/.365/.481, 99 R, 24 HR, 84 RBI, 13 SB in 151 G
Age: 30 in August

Da Box still loves him
But it’s best that the Sox pay
The Dude’s hefty cheques

OF #22 Wily Mo Pena
.301/.349/.489, 36 R, 11 HR, 42 RBI, 20 BB, 90 K, 0-for-1 SB, 84 G
BSLF: 2004 with Reds -- .259/.316/.527, 45 R, 26 HR, 66 RBI in 110 G
Age: 25 as of January

SS/2B #13 Alex Cora
.238/.312/.298, 31 R, 1 HR, 18 RBI, 19 BB, 29 K, 6-for-8 SB, 96 G
BSLF: 2002 with Dodgers -- .291/.371/.434 in 115 G
Age: 32 in October

C #28 Doug Mirabelli
.191/.267/.328, 13 R, 6 HR, 25 RBI, 15 BB, 59 K, 0 SB attempts, 73 G
BSLF: 2004 -- .281/.368/.525, 27 R, 9 HR, 32 RBI in 59 G
Age: 37 in October

Pitching

How long can Curt Schilling keep pitching like an ace? His velocity and command are still excellent at age 41. Off the field, Schilling’s blog has been the target of some pretty savage satire (http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2007/03/26/famous_guest_blogs_in/) by Dan Shaugnessy of the Boston Globe, and their simmering feud should make excellent fodder all year for the online Sox-o-sphere. Josh Beckett has slowed down his delivery this season, having admitted that he was trying to throw as hard as he could against his fearsome American League adversaries last season. Bad outfield defence also didn’t help the 2003 Series hero last season, who may simply be too much of a flyball pitcher to succeed in the bandbox-saturated American League.

There’s not much more that can be said about Dice-K, ostensibly the #3 starter but likely the best pitcher in the Boston rotation – possibly by far. For those of you who haven’t read a single story about baseball this spring, here’s a recap of the top three stories, in chronological order: (1) Dice-K COMES TO TERMS with the Sox! (2) Dice-K ARRIVES and is GOOD! REALLY GOOD! And he might throw a GYROBALL! (3) Dice-K is OVERRATED because he HASN’T THROWN A REGULAR SEASON PITCH YET, so WHY IS EVERYONE PUTTING HIM IN COOPERSTOWN ALREADY? And thus, the Circle of Hype is complete – the anticipation, the breathless adulation, and then the contemptuous backlash. Not bad for six weeks of spring training. But back to the pitcher, you know? Matsuzaka has been very effective this spring, and I’m really bullish on him; he blends late-breaking stuff with command and poise, and his reputation alone may well intimidate opposing hitters, especially his first time through the league. I think the 13-14 wins and high-3s/low-4s ERA that pundits and fantasy mags project is really quite pessimistic. Don’t be surprised if he starts the All-Star Game.

Tim Wakefield, thanks to his unique “indefinitely renewable options” contract structure, will bring his soft-tossing ways back into the 4-slot in the Red Sox rotation. Rounding out the fivesome will be longtime reliever Julian Tavarez, who is delighted to be a starter pro tempore; he loves the idea of knowing precisely when he’ll pitch. Jon Lester will eventually assume his place as the #5 starter this year, but his rehab will continue in Class-A Greenville to start the season. Matt Clement, meanwhile, the object of JP’s free agent desires prior to 2005, is recovering from shoulder surgery and will miss at least the first four months of the season.

Jonathan Papelbon, who had an almost unrealistically great rookie season as the Bosox closer, reassumes that role despite having initially been pegged for the starting rotation. Although it’s true that we never know where we’ll find elite bullpen arms, we do know that elite bullpen arms are really, really good pitchers, and there are no other really, really good pitchers on hand to pitch high-leverage relief for this putative contender. So the challenge remains – how do the Sox protect Paps’ arm from the strain that repeated multi-inning appearances put on him last season? Francona, like John Gibbons in Toronto, vows not to overtax his star closer this season, but once the competitive juices start flowing in a close game, it will take a strong man not to call on the fireballing Papelbon.

Brendan Donnelly will likely work as the primary setup man, as he brings postseason experience and a hard sinker to the task. Don’t be fooled by last season’s splits; if his performance this season is more in line with the rest of his recent career, he can still pitch well to lefties. J.C. Romero was added to be a seasoned LOOGY, although his value was depressed last season by righthanded hitters absolutely mashing him. Sidearming Javier Lopez offers another lefthanded alternative for Francona, and unlike Romero, Lopez isn’t easy pickings for righthanded hitters; he enjoyed some success late in the season when he was stretched out beyond his usual single-batter assignments. We’ll see if he can be more than a LOOGY this year. Joel Pineiro, whom the Red Sox ill-advisedly considered for the closer role upon signing him, will pitch out of the bullpen. He’s an excellent bet to reverse his disturbing streak of five consecutive seasons with significant ERA increases, but he’s not such a sure thing to make an impact in Boston.

Hideki Okajima, a veteran of Japanese baseball with a funky lefthanded delivery, has been effective against righthanded hitters during spring, and Francona has hinted that Okajima might be used as more than a LOOGY. To answer a question you may well have not been asking, Okajima was not at all familiar with Dice-K on a personal level in Japan. Kyle Snyder, who will work as a swingman out of the ‘pen, says that he’s healthy for the first time of his career. Can he be effective for the first time in his career? Old friend Mike Timlin is battling an oblique injury and will start the season on the DL.

The Sox brass has admitted that they rushed Craig Hansen to the majors last season, and he will accordingly start in AAA Pawtucket. His mechanics and confidence both need work, and the hard-throwing righty will be afforded a patient chance to hone his craft this year. Manny Delcarmen had a pedestrian spring and failed to make the club, though he will pitch regularly in Pawtucket and will no doubt see time at Fenway this season. Deeper in the minors, Clay Buchholz has a good fastball and outstanding breaking pitches, though he is being brought along slowly. John Sickels is also high on fellow righty Michael Bowden.

Here’s a closer look at Boston’s arms on hand:

SP #38 Curt Schilling
15-7, 3.97, 204 IP, 220 H, 28 HR, 28 BB, 183 K, LH .277, RH .275, 31 GS
BSLF: 2002 with Diamondbacks – 23-7, 3.23, 316 K in 259 1/3 IP
Age: 41 in November

Known for his control,
His politically charged words,
And, of course, his blog

SP #19 Josh Beckett
16-11, 5.01, 204.2 IP, 191 H, 36 HR, 74 BB, 158 K, LH .251, RH .238, 33 GS
BSLF: 2005 with Marlins – 15-8, 3.37, 166 K in 29 GS
Age: 27 in May

Was rudely welcomed
Several times to AL
Hitters and ballparks

SP #18 Daisuke Matsuzaka
No Major League record
BSLF: N/A
Age: 27 in September

Such an investment!
But he may well dominate
First time through the league

SP #49 Tim Wakefield
7-11, 4.63, 140 IP, 135 H, 19 HR, 51 BB, 90 K, LH .222, RH .264, 23 GS
BSLF: 2002 – 11-5, 2.81, 134 K in 163.1 IP
Age: 41 in August

Ol’ knuckleballer
Ensures two things: Innings, and
Doug Mirabelli

SP-RP #51 Julian Tavarez
5-4, 4.47, 98.2 IP, 110 H, 10 HR, 44 BB, 56 K, LH .248, RH .327, 6 GS
BSLF: 2004 with Cardinals – 7-4, 2.38, 4 Sv, 19 BB, 48 K in 64.1 IP
Age: 34 in May

Just treading water
Until Jon Lester completes
His recovery

CL #58 Jonathan Papelbon
4-2, 35-for-41 Sv, 0.92, 68.1 IP, 40 H, 3 HR, 13 BB, 75 K, LH .203, RH .128, 59 G
BSLF: 2006
Age: 27 in November

Incredible year
But as an elite closer
Will his arm stay well?

SU #53 Brendan Donnelly
6-0, 3.94, 64 IP, 58 H, 8 HR, 28 BB, 53 K, LH .290, RH .204, 78 G with Angels
BSLF: 2003 – 1.58, 79 K in 74 IP
Age: 36 in July

Savvy veteran
Will help, but the AL East
Is no place to age

RP #32 J.C. Romero
1-2, 6.70, 48.1 IP, 57 H, 3 HR, 28 BB, 31 K, LH .202, RH .382, 65 G with Angels
BSLF: 2002 with Twins – 9-2, 1.89, 76 K in 81 IP
Age: 31 in June

Strictly a LOOGY.
Walks and righties limit his
Value, otherwise

RP #37 Hideki Okajima
No Major League record
BSLF: N/A
Age: 32 in December

The Red Sox insist
He’s a useful lefty, not
Just Dice-K’s caddy

Other Arms

RP #36 Joel Pineiro
8-13, 6.36, 165.2 IP, 209 H, 23 H, 64 BB, 87 K, LH .287, RH .332, 40 G with Mariners
BSLF: 2002 with Mariners – 14-7, 3.24 in 28 GS
Age: 29 in September

RP/SP #39 Kyle Snyder
4-5, 6.56, 60.1 IP, 87 H, 12 HR, 20 BB, 57 K, LH .349, RH .310, 17 G
BSLF: Tough to call any of them “best”
Age: 30 in September

RP #48 Javier Lopez
1-0, 2.70, 16.2 IP, 13 H, 1 HR, 10 BB, 11 K, LH .250, RH .208, 27 G
BSLF: 2003 with Rockies – 4-1, 3.70, 12 BB, 40 K in 58.1 IP
Age: 30 in July

Injured, for now: RP Mike Timlin, SP Jon Lester

Outlook: $160 million? Really?

There is unquestionably grounds for optimism. The Red Sox have an unstoppable middle of the order when healthy, generally solid defence, a rotation with upside and a great closer. They also have the prospects and resources to patch holes during the season…although might they be gun-shy after receiving such modest production from their returns on some excellent young players they recently traded away? By trading Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell (among other minor leaguers on both sides) in 2006, the Red Sox may have weakened their hitting and their pitching for 2007 and beyond.

I think there are a lot more “ifs” surrounding this club than do many pundits, and I say this even though I do not consider Daisuke Matsuzaka to be a high-risk acquisition. Boston’s rotation is thin even if Beckett substantially improves, and their middle and short relief corps is littered with collapse candidates. Offensively, Jason Varitek will likely never again be a middle-of-the-lineup weapon, and Lugo, Pedroia and Crisp are far from sure bets to post an OPS+ in the triple digits (though all are capable of doing so).

This is definitely a good team. It just doesn’t feel like a great team to me, even though it’s mostly healthy right now. Tough but beatable, I’m putting the Red Sox down for 89 wins and a tie for second place in the East.