I don't agree at all with the Rios numbers- the extent to which one regresses power should take into account anthropomorphic data as well as GB/FB and pull rates, and I doubt that they have done so.

Mike, whoever wrote the Blue Jay player comments in the book said of Rios: "It should be fairly easy for Mickey Brantley to show him videotape [...] in which case he'll soundly beat his PECOTA projection". That most of Rios' pre-injury homeruns were hit to either LF or CF was specifically noted.

So, at least one BP staffer agrees with most here about the overly pessimistic nature of the Rios forecast, even if that doesn't change the inputs that were used in Davenport's simulation.

This specific discussion of PECOTAs aside, I found this year's book to be the weakest in years. The team write-ups smacked of the old Elias Analyst write-ups, and that's no compliment. Back when Elias was pushing hard to scoop some of Bill James' market share, they provided an interesting and valuable repository of numbers available nowhere else (alone making the books worthwhile purchases) and then mined those numbers to drive commentary and insight which was wholely uninteresting, focused as it was on odd and largely irrelevant statistical trends and observations.

I miss Gary Huckaby, and the longer he has been gone, the more BP is less than what it was. His heart and soul, to say nothing of his intellect, is clearly absent in the current incarnation of BP.

That said, of course they now find themselves on the NY Times bestseller list. But that's just the way the world works, doesn't it? Bestseller lists, record sales and Nielsen ratings are never in sync with the producers' peak, always lagging a few years behind.

10. Which manager will be first to no longer be managing team (whether fired, retired, resigned or otherwise not managing) in 2007?

This is hard, with seven new managers who you'd figure will make it through the year. I'll go with Gibbons, as the Jays will likely disappoint and he's got some black marks on his record.

And it won't be close.

Ninety six wins. Bank on it. Bet on it.

Would I lie to my friends at DaBox?

I concur with Gerry.  My biggest concern is Zaun's ability to perform 1700 squats during the season (the contingencies for such are stomach turning).  I am more worried about the pen than I am the starters.  I know it's only spring training and it's succulent smelling fruit has proven rotten in the past, but Ohka looks strong.  I'm good for 92 wins.

I could believe it.  (If Glaus has knee surgery, the Big Hurt has foot surgery, Halladay gets hit by a line-drive and breaks his leg, Burnett's arm falls off, Rios hits like he did in 2004, Johnson hits like he did in 2004, Adam Lind pulls a Josh Phelps, and Ryan misses 4 months with a sore back)

If the Blue Jays spend most of the year with essentially the 25-man roster they've announced, this is approximately an 85-win, third-place team. A serious upgrade in the rotation and/or at shortstop by mid-season is going to be necessary, unless a whole bunch of good things happen -- Janssen and Marcum both enter the rotation early and flourish, Rios returns to his pre-staph 2006 pace, and Zambrano eventually provides the high-leverage relief innings they were expecting from Brandon League.

Even with an upgrade -- and it's not clear to me what minor-league jewels the Jays can offer down the stretch to acquire a difference-maker -- I think that 95 wins, which looks to me like a realistic target for playoff admittance, is less than a 25% likelihood. As always with my pessimism, I look forward to being wrong.

Jordan,

I hope you're wrong too, but I agree with you.  To make the playoffs I think the Jays need two young starting pitchers to break-out (my money's on McGowan and Janssen), and for one of the bullpen arms to step up to be that 8th inning guy.  My money was on Rosario, but that's not going to happen now, so hopefully Accardo can reach his potential (he looked really good during the second half of spring training), or League can get back to 2006 form.  If this team remains the same throughout the course of the year my guess is that they'll be above .500 but back to 3rd place.  But I can't see that happening, one or two of Janssen, Marcum, McGowan, Zambrano or even possible Purcey or Romero, who have been having great springs, will step up and save the Jays from Chacin and Ohka at some point this year.