Accardo had another bad outing last night, and Jeff Blair says he "appears to have pitched himself out of contention."   This adds yet another concern to the bullpen, where Tallet has been unimpressive, League has been injured, and Ryan has been hampered by the flu and a bad back, giving him very few innings so far.  (Of course the Jays management says that Ryan will be fine, but they have to say that.  It seems doubtful that he'll be at peak condition when the season starts.)

    So, a lot of question marks about the bullpen.  Converted starters such as Marcum, Zambrano and Janssen could be deployed to fill the holes in the bullpen, but that seems a poor solution.

    On the positive side, Jordan Bastian says the Jays are looking at a 22-year-old Cuban defector named Edysbel Benitez, who is said to have a 94-mph fastball and four other pitches.  He pitched in Nicaragua this past winter, and his agent claims he is "Major League ready."   Four other teams are also after the guy......

Thomson, who signed a major-league contract and is on the 40-man roster, is to receive a $1-million (U.S.) bonus if he is on the active roster on opening day. He would not receive the money if he is on the 15-day disabled list — although it's an open secret that the Blue Jays have been trying to trade him in recent days.

My prediction of the bullpen contains 2 changes to those speculated on above. 

 I expect that the Jays will leave Zambrano in Dunedin for a month to continue his rehab.  I also tend to believe Blair is on to somethingand that Accardo is the odd man out. 

That leaves Marcum and Jannsen as the 6th and 7th members of my bullpen.  League should be ready after the 1st week and one of Marcum and Jannsen will be optioned out, likely Jannsen.  Arnsberg has spoken recently about not allowing League to pitch in any Grapefruit League games late this month so that he can be put on the DL retroactively and thus be available after the 1st or 2nd series

 Ricciardi has spoken early and often about the likelyhood of Marcum being a part of the bullpen this year.  I think these two actually provide some flexability and make a lot of sense.  They can both eat multiple innings when one of the starters is getting lit up early on.

Bullpen;

Ryan, Frasor, Downs, Rosario, Tallet, Marcum, Janssen

DL:

Thompson, League, Zambrano

The schedule could affect the starting rotation plans as well.  We don't NEED a fifth starter until April 11, and then April 21, given the two days off in the first few weeks.

They could come north with seven in the pen and spot start the game on the eleventh (Marcum/Rosario/Downs) and keep Thomson and Zambrano down in Dunedin strengthening their arms.

If Towers has another rough ST outing next week, then I don't see the Jays adding him to the 40-man roster.  He'd be reassigned.  Conversely, if he reverts to the form of his earlier outings, he'll get the fifth spot.

Janssen will go to AAA unless Zambrano's not ready and Towers blows up again.

I'd also take Marcum in the rotation over Chacin and Towers.  If Marcum is solid in his next outing and Towers is mediocre or worse, I think Marcum will slip in as the 5th starter.  If Towers does make the team he'll be on a very tight leash.

If they don't make the Jays, I'd like to see Janssen and/or Marcum get regular starts in AAA.  I think it's only a matter of time until one of the Jays' starters gets hurt or hit hard, and having a regular starter available in AAA (the better of McGowan, Janssen, and Marcum or Towers) would be a nice benefit.

The most daunting pitching assignment of spring training will be at Yankees on Saturday.  Victor Zambrano, no stranger he to  Big Apple pressure, undoubtedly welcomes the challenge of trial by fire from the entire Yankee lineup for five innings, to be followed by Janssen for four innings. With Ohka's Stuff becoming apparent, we may be looking at  the emergence of Four Aces in the rotation. When the dust settles the #5 starter might be the best of Josh, Gus or Casey.

Interesting Development: The Red Sox are moving Papelbon back to closer.

Considering their other closer options seemed to be Timlin, Piniero, Donnelly and Tavarez, I suppose it's not too surprising.

Rumour has it that Janssen did indeed add a splitty this off-season.

Blair's latest suggests the Jays are fielding inquiries about Johnny Mac, Rey Olmedo and Francisco Rosario.  He suggests that all the 25 men on the opening day roster might not be in camp.

I listened to the game Towers just pitched against the Phillies on the Phillies broadcast. Even their guys seemed to think Towers was getting squeezed. At one point Zaun was so sure a guy was struck out he started to run back to the bench only to be called back by the ump.

Lets not get TOO carried away with "Ace" talk. We've got ONE, TWO if Burnett turns a corner in his own head (not a sure thing). Chacin, Ohka, Zambrano and Marcum at their best are low number 3 number 4 guys.  The ONLY guy in the mix with solid number 3 stuff is Janssen.

Smith has GOT to start at SS... Clayton can ride the pines. Not that Smith is that great...

Can the Big Hurt smell April? You bet he can!

After hearing how Zaun's two "challengers" are doing this spring I went out a bought a catchers mitt. I've got the ignorance, I figured I might as well have the "tools" too. Are you SURE it ain't April yet?

Interesting tidbit from Blair's blog:

General manager J.P. Ricciardi told me Thursday that the team will take “our 12 best arms” north, regardless of who they are. The Blue Jays would like Janssen to get some starts at Triple-A Syracuse, but he could force their hand Saturday with a good outing in Tampa against the New York Yankees. Janssen’s 2006 was ruined by a back injury that he kept to himself.

Flex, I think you just get so caught up that you're in the bigs and that an injury can open up a spot for somebody who may excel at it and steal you job/chance in the bigs.

I'm with Seamus and Mylegacy, a Papelbon-less rotation can surely help the Jays' chances and Jason Smith (the owner of a resume of two multi-homer performances) should be our starter at short or atleast in a platoon with Clayton(or dare I say, Ray Olmedo?).

Well listening to the game it sounded like a struggle all the way through, some timely double plays got him out of some later jams.

I remember Janssen talking about studying tapes of his motion after bad outings and figuring out that his butt was collapsing and it was leaving pitches up.  The hidden back injury explains that.  Young pitchers freak out about injuries because they can feel other prospects breathing down their neck.  Some, even those with huge contracts, continue to hide injuries out of habit or pride or extreme desire to compete.

The report that League's fastball is topping out at 88-91 mph is troubling.  I hope that the long toss sessions can help him.  With League out of the picture for at least a little while, I'm surprised to hear that Riccardi is 'actively' seeking to trade Rosario.  I was predicting a break-out year for Rosario, especially considering his stuff and his 2006 AAA performance.  I just have a bad feeling that Rosario's going to get traded and finish the year with a 2.50 ERA for another major league team. 

With League out for while and the potential departure of Rosario, the pen might look like this:
Ryan, Frasor, Downs, Janssen, Marcum, Zambrano, Accardo. 

Even though I'd like to see Janssen and/or Marcum getting regular starts in AAA, their ability to gobble up innings will be useful if there are a lot of early exits for Chacin and Towers.  I know Zambrano's pitched well so far, but don't managers lose their minds over pitchers who come out of the pen and walk batters?  Zambrano's career BB9 rate is not very pretty.  I'd rather see Zambrano starting in AAA to get ready to replace the first starter who gets hammered or injured.

League's got me thinking...

For the last 5+ years this guy could throw 96+ without breaking a sweat. This past winter he lifts weights differently than in the past and now he's at 89-91. It got me wondering how many pitchers just need a physical/muscular adjustment to turn into a 96+ guy? What university studies have shown which exercises pitchers have to do (and not do) to maximize their velocity?

It seems to me there are some major breakthroughs to be made in how a pitcher should train. "League's Lament" might just start a whole new branch of kinesiology.

Ryan Day reported this earlier in this thread:

Interesting tidbit from Blair's blog:

General manager J.P. Ricciardi told me Thursday that the team will take “our 12 best arms” north, regardless of who they are. The Blue Jays would like Janssen to get some starts at Triple-A Syracuse, but he could force their hand Saturday with a good outing in Tampa against the New York Yankees. Janssen’s 2006 was ruined by a back injury that he kept to himself.

It got me thinking. SO, I wrote the names of the 17 pitchers in the mix alphabetically and then selected them 1 through 17 based on my impression of their "best arms." Here's my results; the 17 and their placing...Accardo(16), Burnett(2), Chacin(12), Downs(7), Frasor(9), Halladay(1), Janssen(5), League(4), Marcum(11), McGowan(14), Ohka(8), Rosario(10), Ryan(3), Tallet(13), Towers(15), Thomson(17), Zambrano(6).

From that I get the following starters: Halladay (1), Burnett (2), Janssen (5), Zambrano (6), Ohka (8)

And the following relievers: Ryan (3), League (4), Downs (7), Frasor (9), Rosario (10), Marcum (11), Chacin (12) and because League is injured: Tallet (13)

The rest: McGowan (14), Towers (15), Accardo (16), Thomson (17).

I could go north with that 12 (13).

normal everyday pain

At the other end of the spectrum (bell curve?) from Jim Palmer is Victor Zambrano.  TJ surgery pain?  Never had any (writes Blair yesterday).

Janssen's fastball was consistantly 91-92 MPH.  His slider was around 88 MPH, and his breaking ball came in at about 75 MPH, from what I saw.  He looked really good, I was pleasantly surprised.  He may end up being an important part of the rotation at some point in the year.

    Prepare to be shocked.  Jason Smith will definitely be with the Jays for the entire season, and the Jays have already informed him of this.   That's because of the Rule 5 requirements.  Under those rules, he has to be kept with the Jays for the entire season, unless he is offered back to the Cubs for half of the $50,000 the Jays spent to acquire him.  The Jays decided last week to keep Smith, rather than offer him back to the Cubs, and so now he will be kept with the Jays for the full season.

    Of course it's possible that he's just having a hot few weeks -- nobody is predicting that he will hit .370 for the entire season.  But he looks like a useful player, and I expect he'll see a lot of action as the main back-up for all of the infield positions, and even occasionally in the outfield. 

George Bell

George Bell was good, but was he MVP good, or was that the result of Tony Kubek talking him up after he had a late season two strike home run against a Yankee pitcher? How can you compare apples and oranges? Not only can Jason handle the hot corner, he's a natural shortstop with a linedrive swing that jumps off his bat. No, he's not as good as the immortal Roberto Clemente. Notice I did not say the greatest of all time.

I think that the loss of League hurts more than J.P.'s willing to admit.

Do you want him to come out in public saying its a disaster and he'd trade anything for another set-up guy? I hope he's finally learning some discretion and delivering cliches to the media rather than telling us what he really thinks (ie "Our 3-4-5 guys are killing us!")

I personally think this is terrible news. I thought League had finally turned the corner last year. The only reason Rosario was on the block was because he's out of options and not good enough to make the team. If League is out, that changes things.

It sounds like someone's been called to the principal's office ...

Towers and Marcum's lines looked good today - I'd say they both will head North.  Tallet didn't seem to do himself any favours in giving up a homer to tie the game in the 9th!

No, Tallet has not been very good at all, and Accardo helped himself out by striking out the side in his only inning of work the other day.  If I had to bet, at this point the bullpen would consist of Ryan, Frasor, Downs, Marcum, Janssen, Accardo and Rosario (if he's not traded), with Zambrano starting in AAA to build up his arm strength.  I think the five starters have been decided, but I wouldn't be surprised if the order after Halladay and Burnett was shaken up.

It was delightful listening to the Pirates radio crew today. They were impressed with Towers and a sparkling play by Ryan Roberts behind Marcum. What I found intriguing was the discussion on closers. One colour man says closing is the hardest thing in baseball, the other one flat out contradicts him, says it's the easiest and he made a good case. So now I'm thinking the job of setup man has to be just about the same as long as the pitcher can handle the pressure. In other words, League is replaceable, just call an Iceman.

"Dave LaRoche, Toronto's double-A pitching coach, made the trip to Bradenton and coached first base a few feet from where his son played defensively.  "It's cool," Adam LaRoche said. "It's neat for me after all those years watching him in a big league uniform to be out there with him." "

Over on ESPN.com, Keith Law has an article up about pitchers throwing heat, and why just hitting triple digits doesn't guarantee success.  And, as always, Law jabs at Blue Jays prospects. To paraphrase:

Brandon League - a second-round pick  2001, already had a plus fastball that consistently hit 97-98 mph. Now, in spring training 2007, he has yet to spend more than a few weeks in the majors in any of his call-ups to date.

Francisco Rosario - throws an easy 97-98, has only a well-below-average slider. Will not succeed.

Rosario has a "well below average slider"?

I know I'm not a scout, but his slider looks well above average to me.  It's been his control and consistency that have held him back.  Sometimes I wonder if these writers even watch baseball.  (Or maybe I'm the one who's mistaken)

On bluejays.com, Bastian quoted League as saying that the reason his velocity isn't there yet is because of his 8 weeks of resting his arm and not throwing. Let him go to Syracuse and get back on a throwing program. Within a couple of weeks, the velocity should be back. Let's not forget that his spring training just started a week ago. I don't think Verlander or Zumaya were throwing 100 mph heaters during the first week of spring.

Let's just chill out a bit and see how this unfolds.

On bluejays.com, Bastian quoted League as saying that the reason his velocity isn't there yet is because of his 8 weeks of resting his arm and not throwing. Let him go to Syracuse and get back on a throwing program. Within a couple of weeks, the velocity should be back. Let's not forget that his spring training just started a week ago. I don't think Verlander or Zumaya were throwing 100 mph heaters during the first week of spring.

Let's just chill out a bit and see how this unfolds.

I agree it's premature to begin to issue League formal goodbyes, but I don't think the situation is as straightfoward as you believe. When the ever-reliable Jeff Blair and Blue Jays officials are both questioning whether League will ever throw in the high-90's again, the situation is more severe than simply starting his throwing program too late. He did eight weeks of weighlifting that apparently has done some damage to his shouder.