Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Dunedin Week Two: Still Doesn't Count

Another bunch of meaningless games. Can we tease out some meaningful stuff?

Well, Sal Fasano hasn't done anything to take the backup catcher job away from Jason Phillips.

This means that the 2007 team is likely to have multiple Jasons, as Frasor and Phillips seem certain to be joined by Smith. As a Rule 5 pick, Smith would have to be offered back to the Cubs rather than sent to the minors. He's had himself an excellent spring so far, and seems set to become a super-utility man, playing both infield and outfield. When you carry twelve pitchers, you need one of these guys. So the bench looks to be Phillips, Smith, McDonald and Stairs.

To no one's surprise, Dustin McGowan has been optioned to Syracuse. McGowan needed to be outstanding this spring to have even a hope of going north with the team. He wasn't. Let us hope he spends the next four months in Syracuse working regularly and regaining his command. See you in September, Dusty.

The battle we're all watching is for the back end of the rotation. The three top contenders to date (numbers include Thursday's game against the Phillies!):

Player      W  L  ERA  G  IP   H  R ER HR HBP BB SO       
        
J Towers    1  0  1.80 3  9.0  6  2  2  1   0  1  9
T Ohka      0  1  4.00 3  9.0  8  4  4  1   1  1  2
J Thomson   0  1  7.27 3  8.2  9  7  7  3   0  4  4

That Josh Towers would show up in Dunedin determined to save his career... well, couldn't you see this coming a mile away? But face it, people... if Towers has truly recovered his 2005 form, he's not scuffling to be the fifth starter. He's challenging Burnett to be the number two guy. Has Burnett ever had a season as good as Towers did in 2005? He hasn't - Burnett's own 2005 comes close, but it's not quite as good.

And we're also watching the back end of the bullpen. We assume that Ryan, Frasor, and Downs are in for sure. If League is ready for Opening Day, that makes four. Fighting for the other three (or four) jobs, then:

Player          W  L   ERA   G   IP    H   R  ER  HR HBP  BB  SO       
J Accardo       0  0   0.00  4   4.1   3   1   0   0   0   1   5
R Houston       1  0   0.00  3   2.2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0
T Taubenheim    0  0   0.00  3   3.0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3
V Zambrano      1  0   1.59  3   5.2   7   1   1   0   0   3   5
C Janssen       1  0   1.80  3   5.0   6   2   1   0   0   0   5
P Walker        0  0   2.25  4   4.0   4   1   1   0   0   0   2
F Rosario       0  0   5.40  4   5.0   5   3   3   1   0   3   6
S Marcum        0  0   6.43  3   7.0   6   5   5   2   0   4   9
B Tallet        0  0  11.25  4   4.0   6   5   5   1   0   1   5

Looks to me like Accardo is sitting pretty. Rosario should also be in pretty good shape; he's still out of options, and all the damage done against him came tonight against the Phillies, and all in his second inning of work. I suspect the team would rather see Janssen, Marcum, and Taubenheim starting in Syracuse instead of pitching long relief in Toronto; I think they'd also prefer to see Zambrano continue recovering his strength and command at the minor league level. You would still expect at least one of that quartet to make the Opening Day roster anyway. But not necessarily. And Brian Tallet hasn't done himself any favours.

You know what this means?

There is an opening for Pete Walker!

Posted by Magpie on Thursday, March 15 2007 @ 10:25 PM EDT.

Dunedin Week Two: Still Doesn't Count | 58 comments | Create New Account

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Mylegacy - Thursday, March 15 2007 @ 11:37 PM EDT (#164368) #

Who'd a thunk Towers would be challenging Roy for Ace? Only in Canada you say? 'Cept they're in Florida.

On the broadcast today they mentioned that Towers was looking very good and they said they were impressed by his "velocity," however during the parts I heard I didn't hear a reference to his radar readings. I've heard rumours that after a winter of working out with Johnson he looks bigger and stronger and there are netrumours that his fastball is 4 mph faster...Has anyone heard any numbers on his fastball? If the 05 Towers was back with a better fastball... we'd have three solid guys, crearly he's getting his strikeout pitch(es) working as in 9 innings he's got 9 strikeouts.

Looks like Towers wins the "Spring Surprise Award" so far... er... and Jason Smith with his 1.460 OPS gets the "Who Is That Masked Man Award."

Magpie - Thursday, March 15 2007 @ 11:44 PM EDT (#164369) #

What really struck me in the descriptions of Towers' work from Ashby and Howarth was that it sounded like he was throwing everything at the knees. If he's got back a couple mph on the heater and he's back up to 88-89, that's one thing. It's good to hear, but I don't think it's that big a deal (although 88-89 mph is good enough for Doc, most of the time.)

But Towers has always tended to work up in the strike zone, even when he was more or less successful. It's one of the things that always made him vulnerable to the long ball.

Nolan - Thursday, March 15 2007 @ 11:45 PM EDT (#164370) #

The one thing that is impressing me in regards to Towers is his strike out rate so far: 14 K/13 IP.

I realize that Spring Trainging has little or no relevance in predicting how a player will perform during the regular season, but this sure is an encouraging sign from Towers.

I think that if Towers can approximate his 2005 season, the Jays will be a major factor in the playoff race; he's the "wildcard" and/or "x-factor" for the Jays seaon.

Nolan - Thursday, March 15 2007 @ 11:49 PM EDT (#164371) #

Edit: Well, I didn't refresh this page for almost 20 minutes and so I missed that todays line for Towers was included in the stats posted, so please ignore my 14 K/13 IP comment.

Oh well.

Magpie - Thursday, March 15 2007 @ 11:50 PM EDT (#164372) #

his strike out rate so far: 14 K/13 IP.

It's actually 9 in 9 - I did include tonight's game.

I don't make my readers do math!

Not usually, anyway..

Pistol - Friday, March 16 2007 @ 08:17 AM EDT (#164374) #

Here's a link to the Davis Romero torn labrum injury. Tough break for him.

greenfrog - Friday, March 16 2007 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#164375) #

I just looked up Towers's career stats on the Baseball Cube:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/T/Josh-Towers.shtml

He's had a really weird career, if you look at his combined minor- and major-league record. He's had some good or respectable years (1998-2001, 2003, 2005), mediocre ones (1996, 1997, 2004), and two that were downright bad (2002, 2006).

Who knows what to expect in 2007?

jerjapan - Friday, March 16 2007 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#164377) #

So if Towers wins a spot in the rotation, what happens to John Thomson or whoever gets beaten out for the spot? Pitching out of the pen, released, demoted?

And with Davis injured, doesn't that mean, given Gibbons' lefty love, that Tallet has a bullpen spot locked up? Shudder ....

westcoast dude - Friday, March 16 2007 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#164378) #

Ashby believes Rosario won't make the cut but might clear waivers. There is a jogjam of pitching talent, so it may be better for all concerned if he gets picked up. It looks like the rotation is set, with Janssen ready and waiting in the wings.

Rickster - Friday, March 16 2007 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#164381) #

I don't want to provoke anything here, but why is Chacin assured a spot in the rotation? He gave up 19 homers in 87 IP last year and has never been particularly dominant. He's been his usual mediocre self this spring (8.2 IP, 9H, 3BB, 5K) and I see no reason to think he'll ever be any better, shiny 2005 ERA notwithstanding.

Why not put Okha, Thomson, and Towers into the rotation to start the year?

Sister - Friday, March 16 2007 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#164382) #

Rickster:

I can think of a few reasons:

1) The value of having a lefty in the rotation against the big boys in the east. (i.e. he is 4-0 versus Boston)
2) The benefit of the doubt. He has been in the rotation, baring injury, that last two years. He needs to be outplayed to be removed and will have the start of the season to show it.
3) Despite his mediocre spring numbers, they are still better than Thomson's -- small sample size aside.

My guess is that Gus will be given the chance to shine or fall and adjustments will be made after that. Your lineup may yet appear but not to start the year.

rotorose - Friday, March 16 2007 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#164384) #

I was at yesterday's game and can confirm that Towers IS pitching down in the zone consistently. He made Ryan Howard look foolish on a couple of strikeouts inside at the knees. However, he still looks like a skinny teenager. I have observed this week in Dunedin that Vernon is very relaxed and having fun, poised for a great year. Alex Rios seems unfortunately to have reverted to his long swing, and the hitting coach is paying a lot of attention to Royce Clayton (results not yet apparent).

fozzy - Friday, March 16 2007 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#164385) #

Rickster, I think a lot of Chacin's woes last year were due to his elbow injury; it's pretty tough to make a cutter cut with a severe injury to the elbow. What you end up with are 87mph taters down the heart of the plate, and some ugly numbers as a result. Given that he quickly improved upon returning, and that his returning starts after his ugly first game back read like this: 1ER in 5.3IP, 0ER in 6IP, 1ER in 7IP, 3ER in 6.7IP, 3ER in 5IP, 4ER in 4.7IP, I would have no problem handing Chacin the #3 or #4 spot.

Yes, he may not dominate, but he keeps hitters off-balance by working them on both sides of the plate. Part of his effectiveness is his lack of control, and getting hitters to chase inside pitches; he gives up a lot of hits but also manages to turn a lot of DP and strand baserunners, something that doesn't show up in his basic stats. However, it can really hamper his ability to go deep into games.

Rickster - Friday, March 16 2007 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#164389) #

Even those post-injury starts are nothing to write home about. According to FIP, his defence actually made him look a full run better than he actually was last year.

As for whether he should get the nod over Thomson, I don't know. I just don't think the conversation should be focusing on which two of Towers, Thomson and Okha should make the rotation. I think it should be which three of Chacin, Towers, Thomson, and Okha.

Returning to this thread's original topic, I am glad to see that Towers has a chip on his shoulder again. I wouldn't be surprised if cashing in on that $5M contract after 2005 took away some of his underdog mentality. He walks a narrow line between good and terrible. As was pointed out above, he is rarely between those two over the course of a season. If he's back on track it will mean more to the team than any off-season addition from this past winter.

earlweaverfan - Friday, March 16 2007 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#164392) #

So, for the first time in my memory, the Jays have plenty of options at three levels for pitching, and nowhere to put them all. Of course they want to keep the options open for as long as possible, given that players (like Davis R.) can get injured. And if someone is genuinely not ready, you can shuffle them to the DL.

Magpie, I take your guestimates as very likely, i.e., Hallady, Burnett, Towers, Chacin and Ohka (or Thomson, but not both), with a pen of Ryan, League, Frasor, Accardo, Rosario, Downs (and one of Zambrano and Walker.)

Now, let's go down to the next two levels combined, where 10 starters and 14 bullpen pitchers must be placed. Before they let anyone go (or trade them, if some real return is possible), they have at least the following starters needing a home:

Either Okha or Thomson
McGowan
Janssen
Marcum
Taubenheim
MacDonald
Litsch
R. Romero
Ramirez
Yates
Purcey
Isenberg

It gets more interesting with the pen:

One of Zambrano or Walker
Tallet
Gronkiewicz
Houston
Thorpe
James
de Jong
Carlsson
Vermilyea
Roney
Kemp
Neal
Wolfe
Machi
Hill
Fowler
Gonzalez
Matsumoto

So, I feel pretty sure that I likely have missed somebody, and with Davis Romero now out, that leaves six extra pitchers without chairs. I assume that the last two pen guys are not long for this world, but who else would have to leave the system? Can any be demoted to single A (High)? How else do people think this surplus gets resolved? Is anyone serious trade bait for a position player (yet not so valuable that we would hate to lose them)? Is there any team out there desparate for more pitching, but has (even minor league) position players that we would be keen to add?

SheldonL - Friday, March 16 2007 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#164393) #

I don't want to provoke anything here, but why is Chacin assured a spot in the rotation?

Provoking? Nah, I call it critical thinking and it is important. Chacin's only full season in the bigs has produced a 3.72 ERA in 203 innings (3.71 at home in 102 IP) is enough to give a guy who struggled thorugh injuries last year a shot. It's the same reason why Towers should be given a shot, a 3.73 ERA in 200 innings is something special, more often than not, it's not flukey! Getting 2005 encores from Chacin and Towers will be huge. Call me crazy but I think it'll happen.

Rickster - Friday, March 16 2007 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#164394) #

But that is the difference, Sheldon. Towers has to be perfect to earn his shot, whereas Chacin is guaranteed to be in the rotation. I admit that I can't stand watching Chacin pitch - games seem to drag on when he is out there for his 5.1 IP.

fozzy - Friday, March 16 2007 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#164395) #

A 3.12 ERA in his last six starts was "nothing to write home about", especially when he was averaging almost 6 innings a start?

Keep in mind this team was willing to pay in excess of 11 million dollars each for the next half a decade to two older pitchers who are unlikely to come close to that kind of success over the long-term. I stand by my assertion that Ted Lilly will be no better than Gustavo Chacin this year; 2:1 he is actually much worse. I shudder at the fact the team almost paid Roy Halladay money to two pitchers that have yet to crack 200 innings in a season.

For all people rag on Chacin and poured love onto Ted, just keep in mind that Ted - in parts of eight seasons and despite being an all-star - has never yet equaled the success of Chacin's 2005, though he came sort of (but not really) close in his all-star campaign in 2004.

Ryan Day - Friday, March 16 2007 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#164396) #

Towers has to be perfect to earn his shot, whereas Chacin is guaranteed to be in the rotation.

Actually, there were a few comments by Ricciardi and/or Gibbons earlier in the spring suggesting Chacin wasn't guaranteed a spot. (I can't find them right now) But even if he were, I don't see the big deal: Chacin is 4 years younger than Towers, and Towers was absolutely atrocious last year. If the Jays hadn't signed him to that contract, it's unlikely he'd even be in camp this year. Chacin was pretty mediocre, but he was injured; despite the bad season, he still sports a career 112 ERA+, compared to Towers' 93. While Chacin is trying to prove he's healthy and can speed up his game a bit, Towers is trying to prove he can still pitch at the major league level.

Anyway, it's all kind of a moot point, isn't it? Chacin is pitching well so far this spring; for whatever it's worth, he's had better results than Thomson. If you were to put the team together right now, you'd end up with Chacin, Ohka, and Towers, and that doesn't seem so bad or unfair.

Ron - Friday, March 16 2007 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#164398) #

It looks like Mark Prior won't even make the Cubs starting rotation. He has no control over his breaking pitches and his fastball is being clocked at 87-88 MPH. It's amazing what can happen in such a short period of time. If you asked me after the 2003 season, I would have told you Mark Prior had a chance of going to the Hall Of Fame down the road. Now I don't even know if he will be playing baseball 2 years from now.

Ryan Day - Friday, March 16 2007 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#164399) #

The Star has a look at the warmer, fuzzier, less-seen side of A.J. Burnett.

Obviously these articles are a dime a dozen and are full of subjective observation - and pretty much everyone is a happy camper in the spring - but it's at least an interesting look at how you can spin the intense/jackass sides of a player's personality.

Rickster - Friday, March 16 2007 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#164400) #

Um... Who's talking about Ted Lilly?

Chacin had one and a half good months last year (Aug & Sept), and even then he was only striking out 4.75 per 9IP while walking 3.75. He averaged 5.1IP, though he did only give up about one HR per game, which is a big improvement for him.

I think he's a AAAA pitcher who can't even eat innings. He is a slow worker who's only out pitch (the cutter) seems to put him on the DL. He's 26 and has only had two good seasons as a pro (04 and 05). I'd love it if he could turn it around this year, but I would be shocked if he made more than 25 big league starts this year. Needless to say, I don't see why he's a lock for the rotation.

greenfrog - Friday, March 16 2007 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#164402) #

I stand by my assertion that Ted Lilly will be no better than Gustavo Chacin this year; 2:1 he is actually much worse.

I think Lilly will be quite good this year. He's in his prime, still has good stuff, and is moving to the NL.

Chacin seems to pitch on the knife edge between mediocrity and success. One thing he has going for him (besides aftershave) is left-handedness, which comes in handy against guys like Drew, Big Papi, Cano, Abreu, Damon, Giambi, and Matsui. I think Chacin will be in the rotation. I just hope he maintains his "bend but doesn't break" M.O. And stays healthy.

earlweaverfan - Friday, March 16 2007 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#164406) #

Two more names I had misplaced, that make both the list of starters and the bullpen even longer - Banks and Scobie. Call that 13 starter candidates for 10 positions and 19 bullpen candidates for 14 positions.

What I mostly don't see is how you send any of the following down to New Hampshire - Banks, Janssen, Taubenheim, (the loser of Ohka/Towers/Thomson), Marcum (assuming he does not make the Jays), and Ramirez. It would also be a pretty stiff shot to the head of McGowan to send him down there. You could send any of them to the pen, of course, but only if you see that as their ideal placement in the bigs. Meanwhile, you have more than 7 pitchers already who would expect a slot in the Syracuse pen. Finally, unless someone at the Jays or the Chiefs is let go or sent to AA, how do Purcey, Romero, MacDonald etc. move up, if they are having a first-rate spring and early summer?

I know, I know, nice problem to have. Still, I'm curious how they avoid losing players for nothing that may end up making other teams (or their farm teams) better off.

Gerry - Saturday, March 17 2007 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#164454) #

Lisa Winston from minor league baseball visited Jays camp and talked about the surplus of pitching.

I discussed the same subject here, a few weeks ago.

Basically minor league players have no say as to where they go. This year several will be disappointed to be sent to AA. They will be told to suck it up and go prove what they can do. The biggest names on the prospect lists will get put where they need to be, some free agent signees might have been promised a spot in AAA, and some guys who have fallen down the Jays depth chart will be sent to AA.

Gerry - Saturday, March 17 2007 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#164458) #

Jerry Howarth reported on today's broadcast that Russ Adams has been sent down to AAA to "begin to work his way back to the major leagues".

Lefty - Saturday, March 17 2007 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#164464) #

Burnett's comment on working on developing a servicable change up. Maybe the time has come for this guy to live up to expectations.

"I know I've got a good curveball, but there are days when the curveball's off. When hitters eliminate that, I'm a one-pitch pitcher. So I need something to believe in that I can throw besides the curveball," Burnett said

"I'm a power pitcher. I don't think Nolan Ryan tried to get ground balls," Burnett smiles. "There's a time when you need a one-pitch out. I'm fully aware of those situations.

"But nobody on, nobody out? I'm trying to get you with three pitches."

Gerry - Saturday, March 17 2007 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#164465) #

Rotoworld is reporting that the Jays have sent Adam Lind, John Hattig, Ty Taubenheim, Russ Adams and Rob Cosby to Syracuse. I thought Lind might have lasted longer but he might still get some at-bats in major league games.

budgell - Saturday, March 17 2007 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#164468) #

"I'm a power pitcher. I don't think Nolan Ryan tried to get ground balls," Burnett smiles. "There's a time when you need a one-pitch out. I'm fully aware of those situations.

"But nobody on, nobody out? I'm trying to get you with three pitches."

But AJ, the time you need a one pitch out is the first batter of the game, followed by the second, followed by third, followed by....It's how you go deep into games, it's how you pitch 200+ innings, it's how you stay off the d.l., it's how you win 15+ games, it's ultimately how you earn the big bucks the Jays' gave you. Only upon getting into trouble should you be trying "to get 'em with three pitches". I was hoping your hanging out with Doc would finally make it click for you, it ain't the process, it's the result. But I said it when the Jays signed you and you've done nothing to change my mind....$100 arm, $0.10 brain.

Lefty - Saturday, March 17 2007 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#164469) #

Thats all rather harsh, considering the thrust of all of Burnett's comments were in regard to developing a third pitch that is intended to do much of what you describe. But great use of cliche.

MrElbertBuffin - Sunday, March 18 2007 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#164484) #

I don't know if this has been noted yet, but I have just stumbled across what appears to be our newest catcher's blog: Sal's Big Fat Blog. It's a funny read.

China fan - Monday, March 19 2007 @ 03:56 AM EDT (#164493) #

According to the latest Ken Rosenthal report, Josh Towers is close to making the Jays rotation, and the Jays are trying to trade John Thomson. He says the Jays are likely to release Thomson if they can't trade him. Here's the link: http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6584822

Jeff Blair makes a similar comment in today's Globe. It's just a quick comment at the end of his story, but he appears to be saying that Towers has won a spot in the rotation. He also says that Towers is ahead of Ohka, Thomson and Zambrano, with only one of those three likely to start the season in the rotation. http://www.globesports.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070318.wsptblair18/GSStory/GlobeSportsBaseball

So this appears to be a confirmation from two sources that Towers is likely in, and Thomson might be out.

My own comment: this is a bit of a surprise. When they signed Thomson in the off-season, the Jays told him that they planned to put him in the rotation, probably in the 3rd or 4th spot. Thomson had one bad outing in Grapefruit games so far, but his pitching line was good in the other games. The Jays must have decided that Ohka and Towers are both looking better than Thomson. Presumably the emergence of Zambrano is another key factor. Zambrano might still start the season on the DL, but he is close to being ready. The Jays must feel that Zambrano will be available if Ohka or Towers falter in the final weeks of spring training.

Michael - Monday, March 19 2007 @ 06:45 AM EDT (#164495) #

I could see trading Thompson if they thing they he isn't in their top 5. But I'd rather pay him $1.5 million to be the number 6 (or 7) starter ready to fill in if someone becomes injured and/or ineffective than release him for $.5 million. $1 million for insurance and depth seems well worth it.

Blue in SK - Monday, March 19 2007 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#164511) #

Appears Pete Walker is out.

From The Star baseball blog - Thirty-seven year old middle reliever Pete Walker has been given a few days to �contemplate his future� after being told by the club that there is no room for him at the major league or Triple-A level. Walker, who underwent rotator cuff surgery last year, was promised a place in this spring training if he had recovered in time. However, he hasn�t been able to find his velocity and faded from the Jays� plans. �He�s got the option to look elsewhere,� pitching coach Brad Arsnberg said yesterday.

On a lighter note, according to the same blog, Sal Fasano arrived at practice a pound or two lighter yesterday after shaving off his trademark handlebar moustache.

Rob - Monday, March 19 2007 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#164518) #

I could see trading Thompson

For what I hope is the last time, it's spelled "Pomson."

And I'm not surprised about Walker. I think Roald Amundsen was more likely to go north than Pistol Pete.

Gerry - Wednesday, March 21 2007 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#164585) #

The Replacement Level Yankees Blog has simulated 4000 seasons with 4 different sets of projections. The results vis a vis the Blue Jays.....

Chone.....10% chance of post-season

DMB......40% chance of post-season

PECOTA..... 10% chance of post-season

ZIPS........ 20% chance of post-season

Average is a 20% chance.

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