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Notes from Nowhere Chasing the Big Numbers, Continued ...
The 2007 season brings with it, as any baseball season does, the possibility of many milestone numbers being reached. Which are the most likely to be cracked in '07?

Let's take a look ...


Did anyone realize we could have a record-shattering five different players break the once-hallowed 500-homer mark this year? The first four are actually pretty likely, and with Sheffield now in Detroit ... well, who knows?

That said, the following lists only include players who at least have a realistic, if outside, shot at reaching the total shown in the next upcoming season; for example, it's at least conceiveable that Jeff Kent will drive in 120 runs in 2007 to get to 1,500 for his career; A-Rod, as great as he has been, is not going to knock in the 153 he needs to get to that mark until some time in 2008, so he doesn't make it onto our short "watch" list.

Similarly, don't read this as an "active leaders" list -- that's unfair to a guy like Craig Biggio, who has scored 1776 career runs, second among active players only to Barry Bonds, but who is tremendously unlikely to get to the next major milestone as the 224 runs that would get him to 2,000 would destroy all modern records by a good margin. Bonds, for that matter, will almost certainly need more than a full season to score the 145 runs that stand between him and taking the all-time crown from Rickey Henderson's 2295 career total.

So, then ... who are we watching?

* indicates would set a new career MLB record

HITTERS' STATISTICAL TARGETS

Milestone (Current players and totals)
  • 756 Homers* (Barry Bonds, 734)
  • 600 Homers (Ken Griffey Jr., 563)
  • 500 Homers (Frank Thomas, 487; Jim Thome, 472; Manny Ramirez, 470; Alex Rodriguez, 464; Gary Sheffield, 455)
  • 3000 Games (Bonds, 2860)
  • 2500 Games (Julio Franco, 2472; Omar Vizquel, 2443)
  • 10,000 At-Bats (Bonds, 9507)
  • 9000 At-Bats (Franco, 8587)
  • 3000 Hits (Craig Biggio, 2930; Bonds , 2841)
  • 2500 Hits (Vizquel, 2472; Griffey, 2412; Sheffield, 2390; Luis Gonzalez, 2373; Ivan Rodriguez, 2354)
  • 600 Doubles (Bonds, 587)
  • 500 Doubles (I. Rodriguez, 473; Thomas, 458; Griffey, 449)
  • 1500 Runs (Griffey, 1467; Steve Finley, 1434; Sheffield, 1433; Thomas, 1404)
  • 2000 RBI (Bonds, 1930)
  • 1500 RBI (Jeff Kent, 1380)
  • 2500 Walks (Bonds, 2426)
  • 1500 Walks (Jim Thome, 1364)
  • 288 HBP* (Biggio, 282)
  • 150 HBP (Carlos Delgado, 149)
  • 2000 Strikeouts (Thome, 1909)
  • 1500 Strikeouts (Griffey, 1494; Bonds, 1485; Delgado, 1483; Ramirez, 1451; Kent, 1409; A. Rodriguez, 1404)
  • 600 Steals (Kenny Lofton, 599)
  • 129 Sacrifice Flies* (Ruben Sierra, 120; Thomas, 115)
PITCHERS' STATISTICAL TARGETS

Milestone (Current players and totals)
  • 1000 Games (Jose Mesa, 966; Mike Timlin, 961; Roberto Hernandez, 960)
  • 900 Games (Todd Jones, 874; Trevor Hoffman, 821; Mike Myers, 811)
  • 700 Starts (Roger Clemens, 690; Greg Maddux, 673)
  • 500 Starts (Mike Mussina, 475)
  • 100 Complete Games (Randy Johnson, 98)
  • 50 Shutouts (Clemens, 46)
  • 40 Shutouts (Johnson, 37; Maddux, 35)
  • 350 Wins (Clemens, 348)
  • 300 Wins (Tom Glavine, 290; Johnson, 280)
  • 250 Wins (Mussina, 239)
  • 200 Losses (Glavine, 191)
  • 5000 Innings (Clemens, 4817.2)
  • 4000 Innings (Johnson, 3798.2)
  • 3000 Strikouts (Pedro Martinez, 2998; John Smoltz, 2778)
  • 2500 Strikeouts (Glavine, 2481)
  • 2000 Strikouts (Jamie Moyer, 1992)
  • 500 Saves (Trevor Hoffman, 482)
  • 300 Saves (Armando Benitez, 280)
  • 250 Saves (Jason Isringhausen, 249)
  • 400 GIDP Induced (Glavine, 392; Maddux, 392)
  • 400 Home Runs Allowed (David Wells, 385)
So, Bauxites ... who gets where, and when? And who needs to wait another off-season?
Posted by Mick Doherty on Sunday, March 04 2007 @ 01:21 AM EST.
Chasing the Big Numbers, Continued ... | 13 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
david wang - Sunday, March 04 2007 @ 10:03 AM EST (#163998) #
If Frank thomas scores 194 runs, I'll go book my playoff tickets.
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westcoast dude - Sunday, March 04 2007 @ 10:20 AM EST (#163999) #
Glavine will get 300 wins and will retire with the crowning acheivement of a great career. Randy Johnson will not make the grade in 2007; those complete games and shutouts have taken their toll. I wish them both the best of health and would be delighted if the Big Unit had another 20 game win season to prove me wrong.
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Mick Doherty - Sunday, March 04 2007 @ 11:19 AM EST (#164000) #
David, you're right about Thomas (actually, it'd 196) ... not sure why I included him. I will delete him from the list.
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Mick Doherty - Sunday, March 04 2007 @ 11:22 AM EST (#164001) #
I double-checked Hurt's stats, and it was a typo on my part -- he's scored 1404 runs to date, not 1304, so a reasonable 96 would get him to the Big Number. That error been edited/corrected.


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HippyGilmore - Sunday, March 04 2007 @ 11:38 AM EST (#164002) #
Hell, if Barry Bonds got 159 hits, I'd eat my shorts. He's done that twice in his career, in significantly healthier/more mobile times.
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Geoff - Sunday, March 04 2007 @ 12:34 PM EST (#164003) #
If I were to lay odds on which is more likely to happen, Kent getting 120 RBIs or A-rod getting 150 RBIs, I think I'd still give Alex the better odds. Even if they were traded for one another and switched teams, Kent is only just as likely if not slightly less to get 120 RBIs.



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AWeb - Sunday, March 04 2007 @ 12:57 PM EST (#164005) #
A possible omission: Sosa, at 588 homers. If he makes the Rangers at all, I'd be surprised if didn't make it.
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Mick Doherty - Sunday, March 04 2007 @ 01:12 PM EST (#164006) #
Yes, Sosa should be on there. I assume he was not on my original source list (Bill James' book) because he did not play last year. But he will almost certainly make the Rangers. I personally will be surprised if he hits 12 homers, though. I know it's early, but apparently he doesn't look real good.
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John Northey - Sunday, March 04 2007 @ 01:13 PM EST (#164007) #
Interesting to look at career games started.  Always viewed that as an untouchable record as Cy Young set it in much different times.   What surprised me though checking where it was is that #2-7 were all players from (most of) our lifetimes.

In order - Nolan Ryan, Don Sutton, Phil Niekro, Steve Carlton, Tommy John, Roger Clemens/Gaylord Perry (tied).

#1 Cy Young has 815 games started with Ryan at 773.  Clemens is  now 125 behind and given the short seasons he is now doing he'll not make it (20 starts a year for 6+ years it would take).  Maddux is 142 behind and has started 33 or more every year since the strike so would be 4 1/3 years away which is possible given he is 'just' entering his age 41 season and is still pitching in the 'weaker' league.

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AWeb - Sunday, March 04 2007 @ 01:25 PM EST (#164008) #
I'd say no chance to Thomas and Griffey in the doubles category. Both would need career highs (Thomas had 11 doubles last year). I don't think either of them would make it even if they stay healthy (which is 120-140 games for these two at this point) next year either.

Sheffield would need a career high in HR, he'll have to wait another year. The rest of the group trying for 500 are pretty good bets, with as usual injury being the major risk. Rodriguez might be trying for 500 at the end of the season in a pennant race, which would add even more over the top criticism every at bat where he failed, which could be interesting. Just as likely, he hits 3 in an early September game against Tampa Bay and gets ripped for not doing it against Boston the previous series.

Maddux won't make 5 shutouts this year or ever, he just doesn't go 9 innings very often anymore, let alone while shutting out the opposition (1 Shutout in last 5 years)

Steve Finley had 12 triples last year and leads active players with 124...would 130 be a milestone?

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einsof - Sunday, March 04 2007 @ 05:19 PM EST (#164014) #
It's only ST but speaking of Sosa and his power loss swing, he  hit a Homer to-day & I'd be shocked if he didn't make the team.. I think he'll probably have a very mediocre year--but still a bargain at his price.
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iains - Sunday, March 04 2007 @ 10:09 PM EST (#164019) #
Reed Johnson is 31 HBP from 100.. go for it Reed!
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Chasing the Big Numbers, Continued ... | 13 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.