The suggestion by a BP writer that Aaron Hill is the 5th best player in the system under 25 because he is "an average second baseman, at best" is, well, strange.  By almost every metric I saw, including BP's proprietary metric, Hill was the best or second best defensive second baseman in the league.  He's got a career OBP of .354.  Any rational attempt to combine offence and defence in a second baseman, including BP's own metrics, has him well above average.

Otherwise, it is an interesting effort. 

Whoops.  Wrong career OBP for Hill.  He's still above average, and getting better.

I had the same initial reaction when Hill was 5 (and League was 6).  Goldstein is a BP writer, but he values/ranks players like a BA writer (which makes sense since that's where he came from).  I wouldn't lump him in with the other BP writers who have a more statistical slant.

If you had Nate Silver rank the top 10 Jays players under 25 I imagine you'd have something that looks much different.

But it's nice to get a good scouting report on the players he wrote about.

There's a lot of room for debate about the relative importance of tools and skills/performance in the development of a prospect.  But, Hill is a good second baseman right now.  I guess he's going to have slug .450 to really capture people's attention...

It's an interesting list, and it's nice to see some info about The Balbino, for whatever projecting an 18-year-old before he's even played a game of professional baseball is worth. Still, I'm skeptical of any writer who says "I've never understood the fascination with League or McGowan" -- particularly one who makes the usual complaint that the Jays don't have enough high-ceiling prospects. It's fair to question whether they'll ever succeed in the majors - though League certainly made a good start - but I'd think their appeal is pretty obvious.

I don't get a lot of people's attitude about League. They talk about him like he's still walking people at Triple-A. Did nobody see him pitch in the majors in '06?

I'd drop Lind down a notch to 'very good' and I'd bump Romero up a spot to 'very good'. 

I like to think I'm unbiased when it comes to assessing the Jays' players, which is why I was surprised to read that Aaron Hill is "average at best".  I see Hill as an above average 2B, both offensively and defensively.

OK, am I the only old guy who gulped looking at the birth date for Balbino Fuenmayor? 11-26-89 He is so close to being a 90's kid it is scary. Kids from the 90's will be top prospects very, very soon and one will be in the majors within 2 years I suspect (someone always puts a teenager in the majors then kicks themselves later). Sheesh. I still remember Jimy Kelly at Jays spring training and being amazed to see someone younger than me being taken seriously as a big league prospect.

Two words: Julio Franco.  The patron saint of geezers.

OK, am I the only old guy who gulped looking at the birth date for Balbino Fuenmayor?

No.  I even figured out I was 15 when Balbino was born.

It's strange feeling when you're starting to cheer for people that are younger than you.  It's even stranger when you start saying things like "he's done, he's too old now" and you realize you're the same age of that person.

Goldstein projects that Rosario "should" have a spot in the bullpen this year as he is out of options. However his winter line in the Dominican doesn't seem quite right. He had one appearance on December 12th and went 4 innings allowing 2 hits, 2 earned runs while walking 3 and striking out 5. That seems reasonable for a first start but then I can't find any more updated info than this one game. It "seems" like a lot of work to prepare for that long of an outing to be followed by nota. Is this unusual? Has anybody heard anymore about his situation? I would expect that he should be working on his changeup in game situations and showing up at camp with it under control.

My eldest son was born 11-26-87.  I remember when I was a year older than Barfield, Moseby and Bell who were all born within a month of each other in 1959 (if you believe that's how old Bell was).

My eldest son was born 11-26-87.  I remember when I was a year older than Barfield, Moseby and Bell who were all born within a month of each other in 1959 (if you believe that's how old Bell was).

MatO, not to nitpick, but.. Aren't you STILL 1 year older than Barfield, Moseby and Bell? :-)

VW

Well it seems like KG isn't that impressed with League. For a guy with League's stuff (throws hard and has good movement in his pitches) I'm puzzled as to why he doesn't strike more guys out. I'm sure KG feels the same way.

His Top 10 list just proves prospects don't always pan out. It wasn't that long ago, many Jays fans were drooling at the prospect of a rotation consisting of:

1) Doc
1A) McGowan
3) Romero
4) Purcey
5) Bush

Well it seems like KG isn't that impressed with League. For a guy with League's stuff (throws hard and has good movement in his pitches) I'm puzzled as to why he doesn't strike more guys out. I'm sure KG feels the same way.

Isn't it obvious?  2ndary pitches.

Everything is fast or obvious.  He throws a hard slider with his FB, pretty easy to pick up the differences.  If he could ever develop that change up, you'd see those K rates skyrocket.

I'm still "drooling" over the prospect of a rotation fronted by Halladay, Burnett, McGowan and Romero.  If Purcey develops that's just icing on the cake, though I'd be happy with one of Marcum/Janssen/Ramirez/Chacin as the fifth starter.

I also remember drooling over the Carpenter, Halladay, Escobar rotation.  They all developed at different rates, it's too bad they weren't kept together and things didn't pan out.  While I view Purcey as a long shot at this point, it's way too soon to give up on McGowan, and Romero's going to be a very good #3 starter, perhaps as early as 2008.   

Romero's going to be a very good #3 starter, perhaps as early as 2008

Maybe in Syracuse.

And?

Sure, Bush was traded...but he seems certain to be good enough to be about as good as whoever our #5 is over the next few years; Every remark on Romero still projects him as, barring future setbacks, a solid #3 at least;  McGowan still has the stuff and the time to end up stepping into the #2 spot in a year or two (though it's certainly taken longer because of the injury than folks would have liked) and Purcey?

Well, he's got a lot of work to do, true, but being the 4th best starter in a major league  rotation is not a really high goal and even if he fails, being wrong about one out of four guys is pprobably better than the going rate for predicting prospect success.

I think that if we assume the Jays will buy burnett out of his opt out, then saying that most of the next five years will have us featuring Doc>AJ>McG>RR>Gus is both realistic, and a rotation to be pretty darn pleased with if everyone pitches to their ability.

 

I think that if we assume the Jays will buy burnett out of his opt out

AJ isn't going to come cheap. Assuming he proves himself healthy and effective, he could command $15-18M ($20M?) a year by 2009. It might take something in that ballpark for 4 or 5 years to extend him.

Hah, I know the market for pitchers is tight, but lets not get too ahead of ourselves.  15-18 million is still only reserved for bonifed aces, AJ hasn't achieved that status.

Neither did Barry Zito.

"He's still above average, and getting better."

At the end of the year last year tthe 14 starting 2Bman in the AL had OPS+ of:  Cano-132, Kinsler-102,  Belliard-97, Iguchi-97, Roberts-96, Lopez-91, Castillo-91, Kennedy-90, Hill-89,  Ellis-85,  Grudzilanek-85, Loretta-82, Polanco-81, Cantu-78 with an average OPS+ of 93.  Hill is very much an average 2Bman. The criteria for who is average is based on the total numbers of 2Bman in the league rather than starters which does not give an accurate impression of where they rank on a league scale.

Neither did Barry Zito.

How right you are Ryan, Zito has proven nothing in this league.

Neither did Barry Zito.

I would say it's near consensus in the industry that Zito has achieved that status - he had the largest and longest pitcher's contract this offseason without much question that he deserved so. He has won a Cy Young (with MVP votes) and has proven to be amazingly durable. The overwhelming perception is that he's an ace pitcher, and got paid obscenely and/or accordingly.

Whether he has merited that status is a completely separate, and largely irrelevent question when talking about the payday AJ is likely to get (though I'll throw in that to me, he looks more like a Number-2 level pitcher with a career year as opposed to an ace).

[H]e looks more like a Number-2 level pitcher with a career year as opposed to an ace).

Funny.  That sounds to me like a perfect description of Barry Zito.  I wish people would stop saying "He won a Cy Young!!!" as evidence of his brilliance.  Yes, Zito had a career year 5 years ago and won an undeserving Cy Young.  So what? Yes, he's been durable and he's certainly a good player, but NO pitcher is a safe bet to stay healthy, regardless of a "durable" past, and most of Zito's value in the past has stemmed from his IP. 

Sigh.

Why doesn't this site have an edit function? I'm sorry, Spifficus .  I totally misunderstood and now I look stupid.  Oh well.  Not the first time.

Every remark on Romero still projects him as, barring future setbacks, a solid #3 at least;  McGowan still has the stuff and the time to end up stepping into the #2 spot in a year or two (though it's certainly taken longer because of the injury than folks would have liked) and Purcey?

Romero's status a prospect is based on one thing - his draft slot.    He already slipped below 6 k/9 in the Eastern League.  Casey Janssen struck out almost 10 per game in his stint in New Hampshire.   Granted these numbers are based on a small sample size of innings, but if Romero wasn't a top 10 overall pick he'd be an afterthough.

The chance that McGowan becomes a legitimate #2 starter in the American League is generously 10%.   The sooner they get McGowan into the bullpen, the more value they will get while they have him under control. 

The chance that David Purcey wins as many  games as Josh Towers has in the major leagues (40) might be 20%.  Walking almost 7 per 9 in the International League at age 24?  If not a first round pick he'd be closer to being released then he would be to breaking into the majors.

In my opinion, Goldstein is the best prospect analyst in the business.  I just read this top 10 a little closer, if he's right about this system it's truly terrible.

#3 Romero:
In a Perfect World, He Becomes: A middle-of-the-rotation workhorse.

#4 Thigpen
In a Perfect World, He Becomes: An average big-league catcher–-which is pretty hard to find these days.

#5 Rosario
In a Perfect World, He Becomes: A good set-up man.


The fifth best prospect in a perfect world becomes a good set-up man?  Yikes.

Jim,

I don't believe your assessment of Ricardo Romero is accurate.  I certainly don't think highly of him because of his draft slot, but rather the many scouting reports I've read about him from experts who are paid to evaluate talent.  The general consensus is that Romero has three major league ready pitches at age 22.  He throws an average fastball, an average-plus curveball and an average-plus changeup with plus command.  The fact that he's a lefty adds to his value.  I tend to agree with most experts who think that he'll be a very good #3 starter, maybe even a decent #2.  As far as pitchers go, Romero's a pretty safe bet, which is probably why he was drafted #6 by J.P., who at least in the past has primarily targeted safer, lower ceiling players.  Romero's numbers were great in A+, but like many others before him he stuggled in his first exposure to AA, which once again most experts agree is the toughest level to adjust to.  However, after struggling initially Romero did make the adjustment and his last several AA starts were very good indeed.

Regarding McGowan, nothing's certain, but I think he'll break-out this year.  We'll have to wait and see, but it is just way too soon to dismiss him.  Remember that Halladay and Carpenter were also highly regarded pitching prospects who struggled for a time before putting it all together.

As for Purcey, he may never develop, but that's often what happens when you draft high-ceiling, high-risk players.  Even though I agree that the chances he'll ever reach his full potential are slim, it's not too late for him either.  Take a look at the prospect retro on Randy Johnson at www.minorleagueball.com.  You'll see a lot of similarities. 

 

 

Latest draft order this June.

I don't believe your assessment of Ricardo Romero is accurate.  

That's fine, I've seen him pitch more then once in person.  Just an awful pick in my opinion.  If he was a 4th round pick he wouldn't get nearly as much interest in him as there is now.  He's getting the benefit of the doubt based on his slot and team record bonus.

The general consensus is that Romero has three major league ready pitches at age 22. 

Then why was he terrible in New Hampshire?

As far as pitchers go, Romero's a pretty safe bet, which is probably why he was drafted #6 by J.P., who at least in the past has primarily targeted safer, lower ceiling players. 

Back when he was picked this was true, it's not true any longer.  Just because he was a 'safe' pick 2 years ago doesn't mean that we ignore everything he has done since then. 

Regarding McGowan, nothing's certain, but I think he'll break-out this year. 

I'm sure if I searched through this site that prediction was made by some last year. 

We'll have to wait and see, but it is just way too soon to dismiss him.  Remember that Halladay and Carpenter were also highly regarded pitching prospects who struggled for a time before putting it all together.

I'm not dismissing him, just saying that he should go to the bullpen once and for all.  The Jays have done him no favors by constantly changing his role.  Comparing him to Halladay and Carpenter is silly on many levels.  When Halladay was 22 he threw 150 high quality innings in the major leagues.  Through McGowan's age 24 season he's pitched 72 innings with an ERA pushing 7.  I'm not quite sure what Halladay's 2000 struggles have to do with McGowan, there really aren't any similarities.  McGowan pitched OK last year at Syracuse, he'll have to improve immensly to be a quality starter in the AL East.  Pitchers don't age like hitters, they don't keep improving as they move towards a pretty common peak in their late 20's. 

As for Purcey, he may never develop, but that's often what happens when you draft high-ceiling, high-risk players.

I'm not saying that they shouldn't have picked him, just saying that he's probably not going to end up contributing as much as Josh Towers has in his career. 

You'll see a lot of similarities.

For every Randy Johnson there are probably 500 pitchers who never reach their potential.  If Purcey does that will be great, but a realistic expectation is that he will provide no value to the major league franchise. 

"Then why was he terrible in New Hamshire?"

I believe I already answered that.  It is quite common for players to struggle during their first exposure to AA.  Romero only spent two months in AA in 2006.  In July his ERA was 7.75 and his peripherals were weak.  After making the adjustment to AA he posted a 2.45 ERA with similarily improved peripherals in August.  (From a Mike Green post dated 27SEP06)

"Just because he was a 'safe' pick 2 years ago doesn't mean that we ignore everything he has done since then."

Like what?  The 2.47 ERA, 7.41 H9, 0.77 HR9, 2.16 BB9, 9.41 K9, and 1.06 WHIP he posted in A+ at age 21?  Or the 2.45 ERA he posted in the last month of AA at age 21?  Ricky Romero has had just one single bad month in his professional career.  It was in July 2006, during his first exposure to AA.  That's it.

As for Purcey it seems as though we agree, I said his chances were slim but not out of the question.

McGowan?  We'll have to wait and see and in the meantime agree to disagree.

 

Just a couple of things I wanted to mention. Firstly, although there are pitchers who are certainly more tantalizing...ie, tons of strikeouts, low ERA's...I don't think Zito is not an ace. Despite his declining strikeout rates, fly balls and his tremendous amount of walks, he pieces together a more than solid pitching game. When he broke into the league, his drooping curveball certainly fooled hitters(high K rates early in his career) but surely they adapted and that has resulted with lesser K rates and more homers. But Zito has adapted (or maintained his level of pitching...pick one) as well by still limiting his hits allowed. He's only had two seasons with an opposition BA higher than .230 so I thin with the move to the NL, he'll reduce hits a little more and hopefully the walks will improve over time. Ultimately, if he can maintain his level of 200 innings, he'll (continue to) be an ace for years.

Secondly, just a question about David Bush. Overall, he had a good season. He cracked 200 innings and had less hits than innings. He also limited his walks tremendously to post a very impressive 1.14 WHIP, ceratinly a significant accomplishment for 200 innings. He gave up only 24 homers but my question is: why was the ERA 4.41. Not that it's terrible, it's not but his peripherals wouldn't suggest such an ERA.
It seems to me that it might have been his erratic outings. He had awesome complete game shutouts but several 6 or more ER outings. Can anyone shed any light on this aside from his inconsistency?

Because it seems to me that he could launch himself into the upper-echelon of pitchers...

Perhaps his career 1.16 HR9 rate has contributed a little to his elevated ERA.

Bush was hit pretty hard with runners on last year. It has been a problem over his career, especially with a runner on first.  Pitching from the stretch may not agree with him; it doesn't seem to for Ben Sheets either.  Maybe the arrival of Estrada from Arizona to catch will help with that. 

Sheldon:

David Bush's xERA was 3.18 showing his base stats, as you point out, were very good.  His ERA was higher than his xERA because he allowed more than an average number of baserunners to score.  If he can cut down on those runners scoring he does have a chance to have a vert good ERA.

Ricky Romero

Romero shows the difficulty of projecting pitchers.  Romero does not have a 95 mph fastball or a Barry Zito curve, but there are lots of major league pitchers like him, Jeremy Sowers for one.  Romero will do fine if he can pinpoint his pitches, if not he will blow up.  Look at Shaun Marcum, Davis Romero, David Bush or Gustavo Chacin, they succeed when they throw their pitches where they want to. 

Baseball America reports in their prospect handbook that Romero tweaked his delivery at New Hampshire to get "better direction to the plate" and more control of his pitches, having arrived in AA with some bad habits.

 

Latest draft order this June.

The change in the order of the sandwich picks helped the Jays out a little bit:

Before:
#42 (for Speier)
#53 (for Cat)
#59 (for Lilly)

Current:
#38 (for Speier)
#45 (for Cat)
#56 (for Lilly)

Overall the Jays will have 7 of the top 90 picks.

I think sometimes there's too much of a "what have you done for me lately" impatience when it comes to evalutating prospects. Someone who has a couple hot months at Low-A can be acclaimed as a top prospect, while another player who struggles for a month at AA is a bust.

  This time last year, there were plenty of people who didn't think Alex Rios could be even an average outfielder, and who would have been elated had Ricciardi traded him for Craig Wilson or Brad Wilkerson. Or look at Roy Halladay - he had good numbers in the minors but not great - the usual "he doesn't strike out enough batters" complaint - had a decent, if somewhat shaky rookie season, then completely imploded the next year. I remember there being no shortage of people proclaiming him to be a bust before he turned 24.

  There's certainly an ideal curve of development you'd like a prospect to take, but not everyone follows the same path.

Something always worth checking, for fun if nothing else, is how the Jays compare to the big two on these lists.

Excellent Prospects
Yankees - 2 - RF and RHSP who is listed as an ace right now (Philip Hughes)
Red Sox - 1 - RHSP - listed as early rotation starter
Jays - 2 - LF and RF

So, depending how you look at it the Jays are in either better or worse shape than the other two. If you think pitching prospects are as risky as running across the 401 then the Jays are good, if you love pitching prospects they are in trouble.

Very Good Prospects
Yankees - 3 - all RHP's
Red Sox - 2 - CF and RHP
Jays - 0

Ugh.

Good Prospects
Yankees - 1
Red Sox - 3
Jays - 2

Average Prospects
Yankees - 4
Red Sox - 4
Jays - 6

So the ranking goes...
Yankees - 2-3-1-4
Red Sox - 1-2-3-4
Jays - 2-0-2-6

The Jays come in 3rd via this imo. The big question is pitching vs hitting for your A1 prospects and having tons of depth in the average category.

Of course, one thing to always keep in mind - just because you have tons of highly rated prospects doesn't mean you will have tons of ML talent in a few years, but it doesn't hurt.

Cano & Cabrera were indeed signed as amateur free agents, as was the other recent young impact Yankee - Chien-Ming Wang. The muscle of the Yankee dollars extends far beyond free agents and salary dump trades.

If you're jealous of having Scott Proctor, you've got serious grass-is-greener syndrome. This is a guy who didn't make it to the bigs until he was 27 and didn't have any success there until he was 29. Sure he had himself a nice season in 2006, but it will be a total shock if he ever tops it. Good relief seasons come out of nowhere all the time; turning them in regularly, a la Justin Speier, is quite rare.

I missed this Baseball America piece on the Pulaski situation (from the minor league affiliate's perspective).

I wonder what the Jay's side of the story is.

From the Jays' perspective, there's nothing really to tell; the player development contract with Pulaski was at an end and the Jays weren't interested in operating there anymore.  I don't know if they were serious about going to five affiliates, but everyone took them seriously at the time (and had a right royal roasting of the Jays front office for their supposed stupidity). 

The Jays prefer to bring the short-season rookie league team in-house in Dunedin - they really don't owe the Appalachian League anything.  The failing here isn't the Jays specifically, it's MLB and its 30 teams.  MLB should be stepping in here and supporting a co-op team to help the Appy League out (and yes, the Jays should probably be doing what they can to help, but they can't take all or even most of the blame).

Incidentally, after finishing the organizational top 10s Prospectus also ranked all 30 organizations' minor league prospects.  The Blue Jays finished 20th out of the 30 and ranked very poorly on the pitching side (27th), but much better on the position players (7th overall, and a reverse of what we've seen in the past).  I think you wouldn't get too many disagreements in saying the Jays are towards the rear of the middle-of-the-pack teams right now.

What's more ominous is that the Jays rank pretty far behind three teams in their own division... the Rays, Yankees and Red Sox. 

It's a bit of an illusion, Craig.  The "high-ceiling pitching prospects" who drive the Yankees and Red Sox ratings do have significant value, but not quite as much as commonly given them.  Dustin McGowan and Francisco Rosario raise their hands.

I do agree that the Jay system is in the lower middle among major league teams, and that the Red Sox and Yankee systems are in approximately the same place.  The Rays system is one of the best in baseball, which given their draft position is not really a shocker.  They're using the Twins' method- to achieve success, one must fail.  Now if they can find a Santana lurking in the Rule 5 and pull off "their Pierzynski", they will be in clover.

Jeff Sackmann has his take on the strength of farm systems in today's THT.  He has the Jays stronger in pitching than with the bats, and 17th overall.  John Sickels also has the Jays' minor league pitchers rated higher.

My main concern actually with the farm system is the absence of talent down the middle of the diamond, save for Thigpen.