A Jays and Boomer reunion? Ken Rosenthal seems to think it's possible.

 http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6377796

Here's the Rios trade rumors bit, it was moved into this story. 

Wells did pitch well for the Padres, but given park/league factors I'd be suspicious, although better health may have played a factor in his late season  resurgence.

In terms of his attitude, I think its more of a media creation than anything. Wells was quite blunt and did not mince words or hide his disdain for media types. I recall reading how his teammates generally liked him, and also how the  clubhouse attendants and security guys found him to be quite supportive.   

 

Boomer coming back?  Well, that would put him in a unique Jay situation.  Not the 3 times here (Fernandez was here 4 times) but being the only guy brought onto the team by Gillick, Ash, and now JP.  Gillick drafted him, Ash traded for him, now JP signing him as a free agent?  How very unique.

Also of note: Wells now has 230 wins.  If he signs for next season he could approach 250 and suddenly HOF voters will notice him, especially given how few 200+ winners he'd face on the ballot.  If he gets 2 more years in (needed for 250, and if he wins 20 in 2007 he'll certainly be back for more) then he'd retire post-2008 putting him on the ballot post the 2013 season.  Clemens, Maddux, Glavine, Randy Johnson, and Pedro Martinez are first ballot guys (assuming no scandals).  Tommy John will be off the ballot, as will Bert Blyleven.  Jack Morris will be off shortly after.  That takes care of the guys who are above 200 and still on the ballot plus the HOF locks.  So, who will Wells be going against year in year out?  Mike Mussina (no 20 win seasons), Jamie Moyer (2 20 win seasons but never had an ERA below 3.27, just one all-star game), Kevin Brown (might be gone from ballot before Wells gets there), Kenny Rogers (no 20 win seasons), Curt Schilling (probably makes it now that he's cracked 200 wins), John Smoltz (might sneak in), and Andy Pettitte. 

From that group of 2nd tier pitchers I'd say Wells, Mussina, Schilling, Smoltz and Pettitte will be on more than one ballot with the voters going Schilling-Smoltz-Pettitte for shots at the Hall with Wells, Mussina in the 3rd tier.  If Wells can have another 2 solid seasons and get past Jack Morris in wins (254) while Pettitte has injury issues in NY he could become the first 'natural' Blue Jay (i.e. first signed here) in the Hall.  It would take about 7-10 season of voting plus a weak crop or two but I could see it happening.  And for fun he'd be in a Jay cap (8 seasons so far vs 4 in NYY and no more than 2 1/2 anywhere else).

All I meant is that an arbitrator would pay Johnson more then the Jays are offering

The arbitrator cannot award anything other than the player's ask, or the team's offer.  There is no middle ground allowed - the arbitrator has to pick one or the other.  Unless the player and the team come to an agreement, the player will get either what he asks for or what the team offers.  This is different from the NHL, where the arbitrator can pick any amount between the ask and the offer.

Typically, the Blue Jays have reached agreements before the case goes to the arbitrator at approx the halfway mark between the ask and the offer.  I would imagine that is what will happen with Johnson and Downs.  Rios may get a long term deal.

I recall reading how his teammates generally liked him, and also how the  clubhouse attendants and security guys found him to be quite supportive.   

"Supportive" meaning that they didn't bother him when he was in his beer and cigar room down the tunnel.

From 2002 to 2005, Wells put up WHIP's of 1.24, 1.23, 1.14, 1.31 while averaging 200 IP per season.  This is pretty much bang on his career average WHIP and is more innings pitched than any other pitcher on the Blue Jays staff over those 4 seasons.  Last year he was hurt, but then pitched well late in the season.  I think it would be great to get him.  He could easily be their 3rd best starting pitcher.

"Supportive" meaning that they didn't bother him when he was in his beer and cigar room down the tunnel.

Actually I believe it was Martin O'Malley ,in his underated book Gameday, the Blue Jays at Skydome, told a story about how a fellow player was mistreating a poorly paid clubhouse attendant in the presence of Wells. Wells took umbrage  to this players superiority complex and straightened the player out in uncertain terms. As I recall   the book detailed many such   acts of common decency regarding Wells.

mid point for all three would be about 7.5 or so, right? That's what I figure.

Woiuldn't be suprised to seethem offer Downs a two year or three year deal, BTW. As a reliever he's been just fine.

 

mid point for all three would be about 7.5 or so, right?

Actually, it would be about 6.5 million (3 + 2.5 + 1)

Wells would be a great signing for depth.  The man is a quality pitcher.

As far as arb players it sucks that Rios is super two, but I'm not sure he'd win unless his ASG selection makes him a "special" talents players as he is supposed to be compared only against those with his amount of experience (plus up to a year) or less in terms of salary.  So sure he's worth 3.1 in FA, but with only ~2.5 years experience he may have difficulties being worth 2.55 or more.

Reed has an extra year of experience so he has more comps and I think is more likely to win (especially with the high BA last year).

But the Jays do have the habit of splitting the difference and I think that would be reasonable for the players.

With respect to Rios there is no way you could get him for a 5 year/$15 m total like Hinske or Wells in this market.  So what would you rather have right now:

1. Keep him in arbitration where you have the chance to lock him up at a later time (possibly for money if he continues to impress) or walk away if he degrades or gets injured and have him for the next 3 years minimum in arbitration for about 2.5, 3.5, 5 million?

2. Sign him to a 5 year ~$30 million contract that locks him in TO for the next 5 years and covers his arbitration years and beyond?

"Last year he was hurt, but then pitched well late in the season.  I think it would be great to get him.  He could easily be their 3rd best starting pitcher."

He (Wells) was 43 and pitched only 75 2/3 innings. last year He has had a good career, but I think he's about done. Especially if he tried to pitch in the AL. With Boston, he had a 4.98 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP and at his age those numbers are infinitely more likely to get worse than better. If he stays with San Diego, in that league and park, he could have some success. I don't see it in Toronto. (Or Boston, or anywhere in the A.L.)

Looking at Wells' game logs he had 2 terrible starts last year, and both were the first game back from an injury.  Other than those two starts he pitched at worst acceptably and most times pretty well (8 of 13 starts were 2 runs allowed or less and 3 were 4 runs allowed and the other two are the previously mentioned games).  He pitched the final two months of the season so presumably he's at least as healthy now as he was then.

Prior to last year he made at least 30 starts the previous 4 years.  He doesn't walk anyone, he does a good job keeping the ball in the park, and in the last few years has turned into a ground ball pitcher.

I don't see any harm in a one year deal with a modest base salary and incentives based on games started that could push it higher.  In fact, I think it's a great idea.  Even if it doesn't work out there's not much lost and it doesn't impact future years.

He had a 4.98 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP

That's pretty much what the Jays got from Lilly the past two years.

I have a brief comment about park and league adjustments to statistics and choice of words.  When we say David Wells would have a much lower ERA in San Diego than in Toronto (or A.J. Burnett would have a much lower ERA in Florida than in Toronto), this does not mean that the pitcher would "enjoy more success" in one place than the other.  It just means that the measuring stick for  ERAs has to be calibrated differently for different environments.

There is nothing wrong with veteran pitching depth rehabbing from injury, particularly if it can be kept at the triple A level.  My concern about the cumulative effect of the Thomson signing and the signing of other veteran pitchers, such as Wells, would be the tendency to prefer experience over younger and better pitchers.  Wells is not the kind of pitcher who is going to take well to a trip to Syracuse...David Bush found it difficult here to get the opportunity that he deserved, and it would be a shame if the same happened to the next group.  I would feel differently about it if the organization said clearly that Thomson would be given the opportunity to win a job in spring training but that 1 inning in September wasn't enough to show that he was ready to assume a starting role. 

"I don't see any harm in a one year deal with a modest base salary and incentives based on games started that could push it higher.  In fact, I think it's a great idea. ."

Except that that will never happen. Wells wants to pitch in California and the only way he would come to the Jays is if they offered him more money than everyone else. He could get a  "modest base salary"  from San Diego or L.A. etc...

I don't agree.  The point isn't that his ERA wouldn't look better in San Diego than it will in Toronto.  It would for him, and it would for any pitcher.  Heck, put Josh Towers in San Diego and I am pretty sure that his ERA would fall like a stone.  That wouldn't make Towers a better pitcher than he is. 

It is important for San Diego management (as it was for the Astros management in the days of the Astrodome) to understand that they have to adjust their sights.  I am pretty sure that they do. 

He could get a  "modest base salary"  from San Diego or L.A. etc..

I meant modest in a $4 million ballpark, not John Thomson modest.  Then throw in incentives that could push it up to $10 million total.  The Jays were willing to commit that for Lilly and Meche over many years.  Why not Wells over 1 with the benefit of being more protected?

Whether Wells is receptive to it is another issue.

J.P. to the Globe:

"We've had no in-depth talks," Ricciardi said. "There is no offer on the table. If anything, there's been some tire-kicking."

 http://www.globesports.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070117.wsptwells16/GSStory/GlobeSportsBaseball/home

 

The Jays have signed Sal Fasano to a minor league deal. Here's hoping he brings his moustache in all its glory.

Well said, huckamaniac.  His was the best 'stache out there on the free agent market.

Gillick would have been a complete fool if he accepted Rios for Myers. Myers is a 26 year old ace that is still 2 years away from free agency. Rios had 3 amazing months last season but we still don't know the true ability of Rios. It's much easier to obtain a solid corner OF bat than a number one pitcher.

I like the Fasano signing.  I know that it's hard to get excited, but having 4 catchers who should be able to contribute more than Ken Huckaby is an excellent plan. 

yah not that the signing of Fasano is exciting or anything I am happy that they're brining in a little competition for Phillips.  I have nothing against Jason but he's not the type of player that should have a guaranteed spot heading into the season.  Let him and Fasano fight it out and the best showing in the spring lands the backup job.  I'm a firm believer that competition brings the best out in people.

It looks like the Adam LaRoche for Mike Gonzalez deal might actually happen. This is good news for Cambridge's Scott Thorman.

Colour me pleased. Fasano has been a legitimate power threat against LHP over the course of his career (small sample size, but nonetheless). Anecdotally, Fasano is a solid defensive catcher with a good arm, and the numbers say he's definitely quite a bit better defensively than Phillips. Just keep both of them away from RHP, let Zaun handle those. Also, if I were heading for the dish, bearing down on that 6'2" 245 pound frame, complete with the menacing dark fu-manchu, I'd be more than a little intimidated. I can't wait to see Salvatore Frank Fasano with the 'stache grown back in as it should be. Another decent no-risk signing.

There is no one left to sign.  No one seems to want Rios (enough to give up a good young pitcher).  What harm other then sunk costs would there be to outbid The Padres for Wells?  If they offer 4 million, offer 7 or 8 million and see Boomer follow the dollars.  Even if he does bomb, you still have the same fall back options you would have without signing him, just they got in a little time at syracuse instead of being thrown right into the fire.  It's not like Marcum doesn't have any options left.  If he does preform then the number 3 troubles are solved.  I think he could stilt throw a very effective 180 innings if healthy.  Even if he can't he won't cripple the team either now or in the future since it would only be a 1 year deal.

As far as his previous comments about Toronto, most people will only care if he sucks.  If he does well they will forget. 

Right on.

Wells was injured most of last year. Healthy, who knows, 180 innings of 4.50, whip 1.30? We get to keep Rios. Would you let 7 to 8 big ones stand between you and the playoffs? Why spend SO much and fall just short when so little more could do it?

Just do it!

Baseball America has profiles of Blue Jay minor leaguers Chris Emanuele and Po-Hsuan Keng as part of their 2007 31st team.

Overall, Wells didn't pitch that badly in 2006.  However, he will be turning 44 in May.  What are the chances of a 44 year old pitcher turning in a good season?  Tommy John did it.  Nolan Ryan did it.  Phil Niekro did it.  Still I wouldn't say that it was too likely- the success of Niekro and Ryan doesn't tell you much about Wells.

Wells actually doesn't have that much mileage on his arm.  It's simply age, weight and injuries that will eventually do him in.  I'd say that the odds are 50-50 that this is the year.  But, if he is done, he could be hit around quite a bit.  In that way, he is probably as risky or more risky than a young pitcher.

Do you have a link for the Olmedo waiver claim, Paul E-0?  Thanks.

I haven't yet received confirmation of the Olmedo move, but a .280 hitter with decent plate discipline in triple A, who is a slick fielding shortstop by reputation and by the modest statistical measures we have, sure interests me.