With Goose Gossage seeming to have increasing popularity as Hall of Fame candidate, I thought that a preview of my thinking about relievers for the Hall Watch series was in order.
The changing role of relievers from 1950 to the present makes blanket statements about them well nigh impossible. Prior to 1980, it was common for relievers to throw over 100 innings in a season and 130-140 was by no means unusual. In and around 1980, relief roles were firmed up. Closers threw the 9th inning in save situations and sometimes in the 8th. Set-up men threw the 8th inning and sometimes the 7th. Seasonal innings totals fell for the top relievers to 70-80. Unfortunately, this did not always mean that the top relievers were pitching in higher leverage situations, due to the vagaries of the save rule which create low leverage save situations (the 3 run lead in the ninth) where closers are often used, and high leverage tie games in the 8th where closers are rarely used.
Gossage straddled the two eras. His best seasons in 1975, 1977 and 1978 occurred in the former era of the ace pitcher throwing 130-140 innings. He was very valuable in those seasons. From 1979-1985, he threw fewer innings, averaging about 90 per season, and with somewhat less effectiveness. From 1986 (age 34) on, he threw 50 innings per season and was really an average pitcher at best. He threw until age 41.
There really are two questions about Gossage:
1. where does he stand among the great relievers- Rivera, Wilhelm, Eckersley, Fingers, Sutter, Quisenberry, Lee Smith, Henke and Hoffman (leaving Billy Wagner out of the discussion because of his relative youth)?
2. how does one compare the contributions of relievers in general with that of starters? Have the Hall of Fame voters so far correctly valued the contributions?
The first question is actually fairly easy to answer. He's behind Rivera (massively more effective), Wilhelm (more effective and more innings) and Eckersley (many more innings due to 5 very good years as a starter). He is ahead of Hall of Famers Fingers and Sutter, as well as Lee Smith and Henke. Quisenberry and Hoffman are a little more complicated, each for different reasons. Quiz was better in his prime (through age 34 he was significantly better and had thrown almost as many innings) and attaching much weight to the end of Gossage's career is a dubious proposition. Hoffman has thrown half the number of innings that Gossage did but with much greater effectiveness. Personally, I would put Gossage ahead of either of these two, but that is for another day.
The second question is much harder, and how one answers that question will determine what happens to Goose Gossage. It is known that relievers in general, and closers in particular, not only have significantly lower ERAs than starters but also much better component performance. It is easy to see in the careers of John Smoltz and Dennis Eckersley. For this reason, the relevant comparison points for Gossage are not only Fingers, Sutter and Lee Smith, but also Tommy John, Jim Kaat, Ron Guidry and Vida Blue. My quick and dirty calculation has him significantly behind John and Kaat and just ahead of Guidry and Blue. Through age 38, John had thrown 3500 innings of 116 ERA+ as a starter. Gossage had thrown about half that many with an ERA+ of 126 in his career as a reliever.
I will come back to this topic in nauseating depth in February. Now let us see what the voters said.
The changing role of relievers from 1950 to the present makes blanket statements about them well nigh impossible. Prior to 1980, it was common for relievers to throw over 100 innings in a season and 130-140 was by no means unusual. In and around 1980, relief roles were firmed up. Closers threw the 9th inning in save situations and sometimes in the 8th. Set-up men threw the 8th inning and sometimes the 7th. Seasonal innings totals fell for the top relievers to 70-80. Unfortunately, this did not always mean that the top relievers were pitching in higher leverage situations, due to the vagaries of the save rule which create low leverage save situations (the 3 run lead in the ninth) where closers are often used, and high leverage tie games in the 8th where closers are rarely used.
Gossage straddled the two eras. His best seasons in 1975, 1977 and 1978 occurred in the former era of the ace pitcher throwing 130-140 innings. He was very valuable in those seasons. From 1979-1985, he threw fewer innings, averaging about 90 per season, and with somewhat less effectiveness. From 1986 (age 34) on, he threw 50 innings per season and was really an average pitcher at best. He threw until age 41.
There really are two questions about Gossage:
1. where does he stand among the great relievers- Rivera, Wilhelm, Eckersley, Fingers, Sutter, Quisenberry, Lee Smith, Henke and Hoffman (leaving Billy Wagner out of the discussion because of his relative youth)?
2. how does one compare the contributions of relievers in general with that of starters? Have the Hall of Fame voters so far correctly valued the contributions?
The first question is actually fairly easy to answer. He's behind Rivera (massively more effective), Wilhelm (more effective and more innings) and Eckersley (many more innings due to 5 very good years as a starter). He is ahead of Hall of Famers Fingers and Sutter, as well as Lee Smith and Henke. Quisenberry and Hoffman are a little more complicated, each for different reasons. Quiz was better in his prime (through age 34 he was significantly better and had thrown almost as many innings) and attaching much weight to the end of Gossage's career is a dubious proposition. Hoffman has thrown half the number of innings that Gossage did but with much greater effectiveness. Personally, I would put Gossage ahead of either of these two, but that is for another day.
The second question is much harder, and how one answers that question will determine what happens to Goose Gossage. It is known that relievers in general, and closers in particular, not only have significantly lower ERAs than starters but also much better component performance. It is easy to see in the careers of John Smoltz and Dennis Eckersley. For this reason, the relevant comparison points for Gossage are not only Fingers, Sutter and Lee Smith, but also Tommy John, Jim Kaat, Ron Guidry and Vida Blue. My quick and dirty calculation has him significantly behind John and Kaat and just ahead of Guidry and Blue. Through age 38, John had thrown 3500 innings of 116 ERA+ as a starter. Gossage had thrown about half that many with an ERA+ of 126 in his career as a reliever.
I will come back to this topic in nauseating depth in February. Now let us see what the voters said.
