It's decision day for arbitration eligibles. Who will be non-tendered? In other news, the Rangers signed Eric Gagne to a 1 year contract, while PECOTA likes Matsuzaka 4.01.
What you got?
What you got?
How does the Gagne signing affect our compensation pick from the Rangers?
I read the Gange signing article three times thinking that I missed the paragraph that outlines all the incentives it would take for him to earn the full $8 million salary. Tom Hicks notwithstanding, I can't believe that anyone would sign a guy who has pitched in all of 16 games over the past two seasons for just less than bonafide closer money.
As for how this effects our compensatory pick: without looking it up, I'm willing to say with certainty that Cat outranks Gange as far as last season's performance goes. So this shouldn't affect the pick.
Interesting to note that the Braves are strongly considering non-tendering Marcus Giles. I believe Giles would be a huge upgrade for this team, even if it involves Hill once again moving back to shortstop.
It doesn't affect the Cat draft pick at all. Gagne was not offered arbitration.
I like this signing. It wouldn't have been a good move for the Jays at this price, but I think Gagne's an example of a risk worth taking. Oakland's had a rough offseason and Anaheim's still missing bats behind Vlad, so the opportunity is there for Texas to make run at the West division.This now allows them to deal Otsuka for a starter (or leave him as a very good setup man) and it's only a one-year deal, so they avoid any large financial obligations should Gagne fail to regain his form or suffer another injury. It's easy to forget just how good Gagne was in 2002-2004 and if he can regain even 80% of that, he's one of the best closers in baseball.
As long as it doesn't affect their chances of Zito, which I'm assuming it doesn't, I say it's a risk worth taking for Texas. Rosenthal reports it's $6 million plus incentives, and it is a better use of money to take this risk pay half of that to Jamie Walker or Jose Mesa.
I like this signing. It wouldn't have been a good move for the Jays at this price, but I think Gagne's an example of a risk worth taking. Oakland's had a rough offseason and Anaheim's still missing bats behind Vlad, so the opportunity is there for Texas to make run at the West division.This now allows them to deal Otsuka for a starter (or leave him as a very good setup man) and it's only a one-year deal, so they avoid any large financial obligations should Gagne fail to regain his form or suffer another injury. It's easy to forget just how good Gagne was in 2002-2004 and if he can regain even 80% of that, he's one of the best closers in baseball.
As long as it doesn't affect their chances of Zito, which I'm assuming it doesn't, I say it's a risk worth taking for Texas. Rosenthal reports it's $6 million plus incentives, and it is a better use of money to take this risk pay half of that to Jamie Walker or Jose Mesa.
Marcus Giles is a 28 year old second baseman who has shown glimpes of greatness while posting a solid career OPS of .810
2006 was his worst season as a regular (still posted a .730 OPS) and he represents an excellent buy-low candidate. Just 2 years ago Giles was considered one of the top young players in baseball and would have commanded a king's ransom.
This guy will be more valuable to the club than 2 Gil Meche's and will come at a fraction of the cost.
Count me as one who is hoping he's non-tendered.
I think the front-runners from Giles have to be the Padres. Coincidentally, they have a hole at second base since they dealt Barfield and, of course, they happen to have an outfielder named Brian Giles. Seeing as Brian's career is winding down and they may not get this opportunity again, I would think if the offer is relatively competitive financially Marcus will be playing in San Diego next year alongside his brother.
He also looks like he has a decent glove.
Giles' glove is an interesting subject. Dial's ratings had him as the second-worst defensive 2B in the NL last year, behind Castillo, and per 150 games he only rose ahead of Weeks and Kent. Pinto's PMR had him about average to slightly below for second basemen. On the other hand, Tango's Fans Scouting Report rates him well. I don't believe UZR is made public anymore, so I can't see how he scored there.
In three different defensive reports he's ranged from poor to average to good, which is relatively unusual. Most Braves fans I've read on the subject say he's definately below average, but not cringe-worthy. I think his defence should be a consideration in JP's thinking, as Toronto has some groundball pitchers, but I don't think it should stop the team from getting involved in the bidding.
Giles' glove is an interesting subject. Dial's ratings had him as the second-worst defensive 2B in the NL last year, behind Castillo, and per 150 games he only rose ahead of Weeks and Kent. Pinto's PMR had him about average to slightly below for second basemen. On the other hand, Tango's Fans Scouting Report rates him well. I don't believe UZR is made public anymore, so I can't see how he scored there.
In three different defensive reports he's ranged from poor to average to good, which is relatively unusual. Most Braves fans I've read on the subject say he's definately below average, but not cringe-worthy. I think his defence should be a consideration in JP's thinking, as Toronto has some groundball pitchers, but I don't think it should stop the team from getting involved in the bidding.
The Stairs signing is official now. The interesting thing is that it's a minor league contract.
Count me among those that are in favor of signing Marcus Giles. I had it in my mind that he was injury prone, but his games played the last 4 years has been 145, 102, 152, 141.
Giles had a bad year and was still a 4.5 WARP player. Over the last 4 years he's averaged slightly over 7 WARP/year. I think he'd be good for 5 the next few years which is going to be worth more than he's going to get paid.
He's a better player than Adam Kennedy and is two years younger. If the Jays were willing to go $5 million/year for Kennedy they should be willing to do it for Giles as well, especially given that they have money and not a lot of places to (effectively) use it.
Count me among those that are in favor of signing Marcus Giles. I had it in my mind that he was injury prone, but his games played the last 4 years has been 145, 102, 152, 141.
Giles had a bad year and was still a 4.5 WARP player. Over the last 4 years he's averaged slightly over 7 WARP/year. I think he'd be good for 5 the next few years which is going to be worth more than he's going to get paid.
He's a better player than Adam Kennedy and is two years younger. If the Jays were willing to go $5 million/year for Kennedy they should be willing to do it for Giles as well, especially given that they have money and not a lot of places to (effectively) use it.
And apparently Stairs' contract is for $850k.
On a different note, Jon Knott just became a free agent after the Padres didn't offer him a contract. You've probably never heard of Knott, but he's a 28-year-old outfielder who has posted an OPS over .900 at every stop in his minor league career but one. His OPS was only .816 in 2005 at Triple-A Portland, but it shot back up to .925 last year and he was in the Top 10 for several offensive PCL categories. He's 3 for 17 in his big league career, but that means nothing.
He'd be well worth a minor-league invite at this point, I think. The Jays bench consists of MacDonald, Phillips, Stairs and Smith, as I doubt they'll carry 11 pitchers. Knott would be on the outside looking in, but he'd be better Triple-A insurance than Chad Mottola. Lind would likely be in first in line for a promotion, either permanently or based on an injury (or Wells trade), but if he struggles in Triple-A or it was something short-term the Jays may opt to keep Lind in Syracuse if there's a suitable alternative. I suspect he'll go elsewhere, where he has a legitimate chance to make the team, but if nothing else he'd help keep Syracuse competitive.
Also, interesting fact, Knott is the only active baseball player I know who has already earned his MBA.
He'd be well worth a minor-league invite at this point, I think. The Jays bench consists of MacDonald, Phillips, Stairs and Smith, as I doubt they'll carry 11 pitchers. Knott would be on the outside looking in, but he'd be better Triple-A insurance than Chad Mottola. Lind would likely be in first in line for a promotion, either permanently or based on an injury (or Wells trade), but if he struggles in Triple-A or it was something short-term the Jays may opt to keep Lind in Syracuse if there's a suitable alternative. I suspect he'll go elsewhere, where he has a legitimate chance to make the team, but if nothing else he'd help keep Syracuse competitive.
Also, interesting fact, Knott is the only active baseball player I know who has already earned his MBA.
New Blair is up. No mention of any recent offers by the Jays.
A new Blair article is up that appears to confirm the rumours of a Wells offer.
The Toronto Blue Jays have made a formal contract offer to Vernon Wells that would put the centre fielder comfortably among the top-10 highest-paid players in the major leagues and likely exceed the average annual value of the free-agent deal Alfonso Soriano signed with the Chicago Cubs this winter.
"It's somewhere in there," Wells said Tuesday night from his home in Arlington, Tex., when asked about the Blue Jays' offer. "But to be honest, other than that, I don't feel under any obligation to make any more comments about it."
The Toronto Blue Jays have made a formal contract offer to Vernon Wells that would put the centre fielder comfortably among the top-10 highest-paid players in the major leagues and likely exceed the average annual value of the free-agent deal Alfonso Soriano signed with the Chicago Cubs this winter.
"We have made a formal offer," Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi said Tuesday night, although he refused to confirm a report on Yahoo.com that said he had "floated" the idea of a seven-year, $126-million (all figures U.S.) contract to his Gold Glove centre fielder.
..."It's somewhere in there," Wells said Tuesday night from his home in Arlington, Tex., when asked about the Blue Jays' offer. "But to be honest, other than that, I don't feel under any obligation to make any more comments about it."
In non-shocking news, the Jays tendered contracts to all eligible players yesterday: Overbay, Johnson, Rios, McDonald, Downs and Frasor.
I was hoping the Jays would non-tender Johnny Mac, but he's not on the list from MLB.com. This means that McDonald, Clayton, and Smith will all have major league contracts heading in to spring trainnig. Bleah.
I second Jonny's "bleah" with regard to the tendering of McDonald.
People I know in Vancover have the 'h' system for rating the weather, as in how many hs there are at the end of bleah. After the sixteenth rainy day in a row, they say "I can't stand another 4-h day". The presence of McDonald, Smith and Clayton on the major league roster is a 2 h move.
People I know in Vancover have the 'h' system for rating the weather, as in how many hs there are at the end of bleah. After the sixteenth rainy day in a row, they say "I can't stand another 4-h day". The presence of McDonald, Smith and Clayton on the major league roster is a 2 h move.
The Jays should look at what happened to the Phillies with Bobby Abreu, a very good player that was paid like a superstar and hindered his team's ability to compete.
Abreu has been a very underrated player, primarily because his biggest skill, the ability to get on base, isn't properly valued by those fixated on homerun and RBI totals (JD Drew detractors are currently singing from the same song sheet).
Whether Abreu was worth all the money Philadelphia was paying him is debatable, but I can't accept that his contract hindered the team's ability to compete. To identify players falling into that category, look to a team's non-performers, not to the guy with the career 302/412/507.
JD Drew detractors are currently singing from the same song sheet
Not really, Chuck. You're forgetting about the choruses and verses about durability and splits -- Drew has only been even reasonably healthy in two of his eight full seasons (and his Boston contract will take him into his mid-30s), while Abreu has never been seriously hurt. Moreover, Drew has been lousy against lefties of late, while Abreu has always handled lefthanded pitching well.
Your point about relying on counting stats is obviously well-taken. But there are also issues with overreliance on rate stats...
I hear you Mike. I was just trying to say that the "shape" of Drew's offense is similar to that of Abreu's, and those are the "shapes" that tend to be underrated.
I do concur that most of the anti-Drew talk has been related to his durability (to which some have argued that his time missed to "one off" injuries is perhaps erroneously being considered part of a pattern), but I have seen or heard more than the odd rant decrying Drew's solitary 100 RBI season (and not within the context of him only playing 140 games a year, but because he's not the big thumper that you'd like to see in an outfield corner).
Toby Hall was also non-tendered. He is a somewhat better option than Jason Phillips as a platoon partner for Zaun, in my opinion, on the right financial terms.
Honestly, I prefer Giles at 2B and Hill at SS to any of the other middle infield options that were available at the start of the free agent period this year. I suspect that as long as Hill is given one definite position, either 2B or SS, rather than being jerked around, he will do well defensively. Acquiring Giles would be a potentially massive boost to our chances.
What I don't understand is why Giles was non-tendered? For one off season? No one wanted to trade for him? Schuerholz is no dummy, something must be up here.
Teams might be figuring that with this year's glut of second baseman, paying Giles $6M in arbitration is less palatable than getting away with lowballing the as-of-yet unsigned Belliard or Loretta.
It may be that Schuerholz may have inside knowledge that Giles 2006 performance is likely to be repeated in 2007 for some reason. It may also be that the Braves are in a difficult financial position. There are indications that they are cutting payroll.
Here is Sabernomics perspective. I incidentally do not agree that career PrOPS is a better indicator of future performance than career OPS.
Here is Sabernomics perspective. I incidentally do not agree that career PrOPS is a better indicator of future performance than career OPS.
I would have thought that some team would have traded for Giles and then take the arbitration award. The Jays would have been a great candidate for one year of Giles. There's little risk for one year.
And they probably could have had it for a low level prospect. Paul Phillips (picking someone at random) would have been a better return to the Braves than nothing.
And they probably could have had it for a low level prospect. Paul Phillips (picking someone at random) would have been a better return to the Braves than nothing.