Aaron Gleeman has a video up for NBCSports as well as a written update on the winter meetings. Highlights include Manny probably leaving Boston, Crede and the White Sox starters being on the block, and Selig possibly looking like Hef.

It's interesting that the White Sox starting rotation yard sale, which seemingly began at last summer's trading deadline, is still ongoing -- either Kenny Williams is really driving hard bargains or there's less interest out there than you'd think. 

Looks like Manny's really going to be dealt this time. I've said it before, but that can only be good news for the Blue Jays.

Would Dotel be an option for the Jays?  It would give them another veteran in the pen, and hopefully he wouldn't cost too much.

Has anyone heard any salary rumours regarding him?  Considering that he's been injured for 1.5 years or so, I wouldn't think he'd get that big of an offer.

From what I've read, Dotel wants to close, and for now is considering only teams that offer him that role.

Probably smart on Dotel's part.  It will mean taking a hit this season and he may have to take a smaller contract, but 30 saves will net him a big payday the following year, no matter if he pitches well or mediocre.

In the Jays' search for a 4th outfielder, I'd argue that it could be worth kicking the tires on Jose Cruz Jr. His pop certainly faded in Los Angeles last season, but he's still a switch-hitter with some speed and the capability to play all three outfield positions in a pinch. His OBP won't kill you if he has to be pressed into starting duty for a week, either. Would a one-year, say, 500K contract with a handful of performance-based incentives be so bad?

If the season started today, I'd guess that John Ford Griffin is the most likely 4th option and that's not really exceptional, even if our existing OFs can hide his defensive shortcomings. Thoughts?

Presumably, Griffin is bemoaning the days when the guys who assembled for the Winter Meetings weren't as driven or businesslike.  Again, this just underlines the unfitness of guys like Griffin to their jobs.  Baseball is fun, but it's also a serious business for those involved in it, and it's increasingly being run in a serious way - by people who would rather do a long night's work than sit around with their feet up killing a bottle of whisky with "the boys from the papers" and telling old chestnuts about Mickey Mantle. 

If you're unwilling to come to grips with that, I don't think you're tempermentally suited to covering baseball.  (But that's just me).

Wow, ESPN has reported that Carpenter has agreed to a contract extension with the Cardinals at what seems to me to be WAY under market!

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2686240

Can't imagine that has made the Union or a number of agents too happy.

Carpenter should thank his agent for a terrific contract extension.

The Cards had him controlled for the next 2 seasons at a below market price of 15 million. The Cards basically gave him a 3yr/50 million extension with a club option of 12 million in year 6. Carpenter will be 32 years old next season.

Bengie Molina apparently signed with the Giants for 3 years, maybe it's too bad we didn't offer him arb since the Giants seem like a team that wouldn't care about losing the pick.

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AkGFMCA.NUP1kqaJ8W3NUZkRvLYF?slug=ys-mlbwmblog&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

Molina is only 32, and is therefore way too young to be a Giant.  He's going to be super pissed when Brian Sabean starts calling him "sonny" all the time.

That's two years more than I would've given Molina.  I don't mind the fact the Jays didn't offer him arb -- you can't count on teams like the Giants coming along with offers like that.

In their defense, the erosion of his play behind the plate and his ability to take a sure double and turn it into a solid single make him look way older.

This is true.  Bengie is a young guy by Jints standards, but he plays like a 40-year-old man with bad knees.  Maybe the G's will make a run for Adam Dunn.

Why is every media outlet misrepresenting Carpenter's extension? He didn't sign a 5/65 extension. Years 1 and 2 were team options that were exercised. The extension is 3/49 starting in 2009.

This extension should not be seen as the bar being magically set to $13M per year for a pitcher of Carpenter's caliber. If the Cardinals did not have options on 2007 and 2008, I don't believe that Carpenter signs the contract he did. As a free agent now, he'd command more than 5/65.

Now, it could be argued that Carpenter effectively signed for 5/65 by agreeing to the 3/49 extension, but with the team holding options for the next two years, Carpenter's leverage was much, much lower than that of current FA pitchers.

Or am I missing something?

You're not mistaken, Chuck.  Just to be clear, Chris Carpenter and the Cardinals effectively negotiated a 3 year extension to his existing contract at about $16 million per year.  That seems to me to be roughly market price.

I remain puzzled by the Toronto media's apparent fascination with either signing or trading Vernon Wells right this instant, and coming up with numerous speculative trade destinations like Chicago and Los Angeles to achieve it. Wells is a respected presence and media favourite, so it's not like they want to run him out of town, but they can't seem to stop harping on how his long-term status must be resolved. Few things would likely turn off potential free-agent signees faster than seeing the Jays trade their best player away. The odds are heavily in favour of Wells playing out his contract with Toronto in 2007.

That said, the Rockies would make an interesting dance partner. Jennings would be a very useful pitcher and relatively affordable on the Meche Scale, but the guy the Jays would obviously target would be Tulowitzki,  who they really ought to have taken instead of Ricky Romero in the 2005 draft. He has a tremendous bat, he's above-average defensively, and the Jays would control him through his age-27 season. Six seasons of Tulowitzki alone would be a great haul for one season of Wells, but I can't see the Rockies ponying up that level of talent, plus a solid starter, plus a top prospect, for a guy they'd very likely lose to free agency after 2007. This is why I don't see Wells going anywhere -- the price is (justifiably enough) too high.

A new discussion thread is up.

I remain puzzled by the Toronto media's apparent fascination with either signing or trading Vernon Wells right this instant

Well, it gives them something to write about without much effort.  Of course, making a move with Wells now because the 'fans are distracted' is silly.

However, in the event of a Wells trade I would think there's an advantage to doing it earlier rather than later.  As time goes on more teams will be filling their holes and using up their money.  And when that happens you have fewer trading partners, and potentially getting less in return.  For example, the Angels a few weeks ago would have been a likely option, but since they signed Matthews it's much less likely they'd be in on Wells.

the guy the Jays would obviously target would be Tulowitzki,  who they really ought to have taken instead of Ricky Romero in the 2005 draft. He has a tremendous bat, he's above-average defensively, and the Jays would control him through his age-27 season.

Tulowitzki turned out well, but I have to say I wasn't as jazzed as everyone else was with him coming out of college.  His bat just wasn't really strong, he's very slow for an up-the-middle player, and he struck out quite a lot without walking much.  Basically, Tulowitzki is Aaron Hill with a shade less bat and more opportunity; now Hill's a fine player, and I expect Tulowitzki to be about the same, but you have to shoot higher than that with the #6 overall pick, even in a weak year.

Not too sure about that.  Tulowitzki has a much larger frame, which can translate into a good deal more power, was 2 years younger than Hill was when he broke into the majors.  He also put up better #s than Hill did in AA again 2 years prior, both in OBP/SLG.

Calling him Aaron Hill with less bat is quite disingenious.

Not disingenuous at all.  Let's take your points one by one.

Tulo is bigger, true (which should help him a little with the bat but will hurt him in the field) but he wasn't a better hitter in college (that was supposed to be my main point - he had less bat at the time he was drafted although he's pulled even now at the same age - I maty have made it poorly).  In fact, he was much worse.  As for since then, we'll come to that.

Your "broke into the majors" point was what I was saying about opportunity... Tulowitzki got a cup of coffee because he was on a bad team with a cratering shortstop.  Hill had to wait for a spot to open up.  Still, Tulo made his ML debut aged 21 years 324 days.  Hill made his at 23 years 60 days... an advantage of about 15 months for Tulowitzki.  Of course, Tulo slugged .292 in Coors Field in that cup of coffee, so it tells us nothing about whether he was ready or not.

Because Hill was born in March and Tulo in October, their "age difference" isn't well-expressed by "baseball age"... when Hill is "25" and Tulowitzki "22" this coming year, they will actually be closer to two years apart.  Anyway, that's nitpicking.  What's not nitpicking is using that to establish a baseline of comparison... Hill's 2004 season when he hit .279/.368/.410 in New Hampshire is his closest season in age to Tulowitzki's 2006 when he hit .291/.370/.473 in Tulsa.

Still, Tulowitzki looks better, right?

Sure, except for the difference between the Eastern League and the Texas League, and Fisher Cat Stadium and Oiler Park.  That makes the difference essentially vanish. 

The selection of Ricky Romero (who was pretty awful last season minus his last few starts) will probably haunt the Jays for years to come.

Ron, the selection os any pitcher with a high first-round pick is likely to haunt that team for years to come.  That's where the immortal line comes from... "young pitchers will break your heart".

At any rate, Romero dominated the FSL last year in his ten starts.  He struggled a little in his first shot at AA when he was 21... hell, he'd hardly be the first perennial All-Star to do that.  (Ron Guidry couldn't get guys out in AA when he was 24 - and Romero reminds me of Ron Guidry).  Orel Hershiser struggled badly his first time against AA hitters when he was 21 (high walks, low K's, high hits in an extreme pitcher's park).  Kevin Brown had a *7.29 ERA* in his first serious go-around in AA.  I checked out about eight good pitchers to come up with those three... five were OK in their first trip in AA, but only one dominated (Jimmy Key, and he barely struck out five men per nine in his first time in AA).

Right now, no, he doesn't look as good as Maybin (who I think at the time I said I would pick too, even though I understood the reasons for not doing it) or Tulowitzki.  But who knows, with time.  It wouldn't be the worst gamble.

Incidentally, don't take my implied criticism of Tulowitzki-as-draft-pick above as saying he's no good... I didn't think he'd hit much, so *I* was the one who was wrong, not those who thought he would hit.  I don't think he's ahead of Aaron Hill, but Hill has certainly hit enough to hold down a MI job.

Craig, I do understand the risk of drafting any pitcher with a high selection. He's still young and has time to develop into the pitcher the Jays think he can become. I just haven't liked what I've seen so far. While Romero was the first pitcher selected, all the so called experts said he wasn't the best pitcher available in the draft. I'm just not a big fan of how the Jays run their drafts. It appears signing ability is valued more than overall talent. I feel like paying above slot (like what the Angels did with Weaver and D-Backs did with Drew) is a sound strategy when a premium talent slips in the draft. I wonder how Kevin Towers feels about selecting Matt Bush first overall because he was willing to sign for cheap.

I just haven't liked what I've seen so far.

Me either, to be frank.  He's done OK.  I loved what I saw when he was in college; there's good evidence that he was worked too hard though, especially at the very tail end of his final season.

While Romero was the first pitcher selected, all the so called experts said he wasn't the best pitcher available in the draft. I'm just not a big fan of how the Jays run their drafts.

Well, Ron, we've gone over this before and as I've said before, I certainly can't say you're 100% wrong even though you're not 100% right.  The drafting method fits the organization's style - continually improve, brick by brick - while at the same time I agree with you that it's risk-averse.  And as I've said before, a team in the Jays' position needs more risk, not less.

I feel like paying above slot (like what the Angels did with Weaver and D-Backs did with Drew) is a sound strategy when a premium talent slips in the draft.

I think it's sound too... the issue is having the money.  I wouldn't want to see the major league payroll hurt in order to finance an expensive amateur strategy.  I don't like the "burn it down to the ground and rebuild" strategy where too many resources go into the future and not enough in the present... I've seen too many teams who started doing that and never came back.

Your point about 1/5 of a Molina, though, is well-taken.  The dollars here aren't huge and reap huge benefits.  But do you think the Jays are particularly good at identifying that premium talent, or not?  If not, does it make sense to put more money into it?

I wonder how Kevin Towers feels about selecting Matt Bush first overall because he was willing to sign for cheap.

Selecting Bush was a brutal mistake, but the problem with Bush was not the cheap signing, it was the way he was signed.  Bush came to the Padres' owners shortly before the draft begging them to sign him and agreeing to money that might have been below what he was worth.  The SD front office didn't check him out adequately,  and yes they were probably burned by the whole deal.  But lots of other #1 picks, the ones who didn't fall, were also busts.

The dollars here aren't huge and reap huge benefits.  But do you think the Jays are particularly good at identifying that premium talent, or not?  If not, does it make sense to put more money into it?

Because the dollars aren't huge and the potential benefits are huge, I don't understand why more teams aren't willing to pay above slot for premium talent. Heck every off-season, teams glady pay 30+ million to free agents that become busts. It's not like the Jered Weavers, Mike Pelfreys, Stephen Drews of the world are asking for a 25 million dollar signing bonus. Jered Weaver's "big signing bonus" was 4 million dollars.

Heck the Jays are going to pay the Red Sox 2.8 million dollars next season just so Eric Hinske is no longer taking up a roster spot. Josh Towers will be paid 2.9 million to (most likely) pitch in the minors. The Jays paid the Brewers 7.25 million just to get rid of Corey Koskie.

By drafting a player such as Weaver, it reduces the need to go out and sign a player like Lilly or Meche for 4yrs/40 million dollars. Of course there's a chance the player will be a bust. But even if the player turns out to be a bust, it won't cost you much.

I don't have complete faith in the current regime for identifying premium talent, but the players that fall in the draft are usually pretty obvious. 9 times out of 10, their agent is Scott Boras.

Of course there's a chance the player will be a bust. But even if the player turns out to be a bust, it won't cost you much.

I wouldn't say not much.  Weaver and Boras were asking for a $10 million signing bonus and they showed every intention of holding everyone's feet to the fire for it.   I know, $10 million for the Angels is one season of Gary Matthews, Jr. but to us in the reality-based community, that's a pretty big ouch to put down on a guy who just didn't throw all that hard.  (I liked Weaver a bunch, and think the Angels got a good deal... but he wasn't universally beloved or anything).

Pelfrey, I think, had a better case for being picked earlier than he was.