When a player proves he belongs in the big leagues at age 19, as
Griffey Jr. did, the odds are pretty good of a Cooperstown ending to
the story. Can one be a disappointing Hall of Famer, I wonder?
Ken Griffey Jr. was the first overall pick of the 1987 draft at age 17. The Mariners sent him to the Northwest League that summer, where he hit 14 homers in 182 at-bats, stole 13 bases, and walked more than he struck out. The M's moved him up to the California League the next year, where he continued to dominate and by the end of the season he was in double A Vermont. And that was the extent of his minor league career.
He opened the 1989 season as the Mariner centerfielder, and put up a very respectable .264/.329/.420 line with acceptable walk and strikeout rates. The consensus among analysts was that there was no reasonable limit to his future. He took a step forward in 1990 and another one in 1991, hitting .327/.399/.527. At age 21, he had established himself already as one of the best players in baseball. In 1993, he added even more power and improved his strike zone judgment even further. The best four position players in baseball at that time were Barry Bonds, Frank Thomas, Ken Griffey and Roberto Alomar. Griffey was a consistent hitter in his 20s, putting up good numbers every year and great ones in four seasons. As of age 30, he was on pace to pass Hank Aaron's career home run mark, but his early 30s were mostly a story of injury. He put up a big comeback year in 2005, and then slipped to .252/.316/.486 at age 36 last year.
Griffey had average speed, or perhaps a little better, in his 20s. He lost his speed around age 30 due to injury. He was a fair defender, who won Gold Gloves throughout the 1990s based largely on his reputation. He is a very poor defensive centerfielder now by objective measures, and has been for several years.
Ken Griffey is an obvious Hall of Famer. Was his career a disappointment? Absolutely not. His BBRef comparables at age 30 included on the positive side- Frank Robinson, Mickey Mantle, Mel Ott and Hank Aaron, and on the negative side in terms of post-age 30 performance- Eddie Mathews, Juan Gonzalez, Duke Snider, and Jimmie Foxx. In short, he performed in his 20s as well as anyone could have hoped for, and in his 30s about as well as your average superstar. Griffey is likely to end up his career as a slightly better and longer-lasting version of Duke Snider.
Next up: The Closers
Ken Griffey Jr. was the first overall pick of the 1987 draft at age 17. The Mariners sent him to the Northwest League that summer, where he hit 14 homers in 182 at-bats, stole 13 bases, and walked more than he struck out. The M's moved him up to the California League the next year, where he continued to dominate and by the end of the season he was in double A Vermont. And that was the extent of his minor league career.
He opened the 1989 season as the Mariner centerfielder, and put up a very respectable .264/.329/.420 line with acceptable walk and strikeout rates. The consensus among analysts was that there was no reasonable limit to his future. He took a step forward in 1990 and another one in 1991, hitting .327/.399/.527. At age 21, he had established himself already as one of the best players in baseball. In 1993, he added even more power and improved his strike zone judgment even further. The best four position players in baseball at that time were Barry Bonds, Frank Thomas, Ken Griffey and Roberto Alomar. Griffey was a consistent hitter in his 20s, putting up good numbers every year and great ones in four seasons. As of age 30, he was on pace to pass Hank Aaron's career home run mark, but his early 30s were mostly a story of injury. He put up a big comeback year in 2005, and then slipped to .252/.316/.486 at age 36 last year.
Griffey had average speed, or perhaps a little better, in his 20s. He lost his speed around age 30 due to injury. He was a fair defender, who won Gold Gloves throughout the 1990s based largely on his reputation. He is a very poor defensive centerfielder now by objective measures, and has been for several years.
Ken Griffey is an obvious Hall of Famer. Was his career a disappointment? Absolutely not. His BBRef comparables at age 30 included on the positive side- Frank Robinson, Mickey Mantle, Mel Ott and Hank Aaron, and on the negative side in terms of post-age 30 performance- Eddie Mathews, Juan Gonzalez, Duke Snider, and Jimmie Foxx. In short, he performed in his 20s as well as anyone could have hoped for, and in his 30s about as well as your average superstar. Griffey is likely to end up his career as a slightly better and longer-lasting version of Duke Snider.
Next up: The Closers
