DeRo had a nice year for the Rangers -- .296/13/74, playing everywhere but P, C and CF. But that contract seems to set the market a little ... well, high, doesn't it?

Well, you don't get bargains at the beginning of FA.

I would think that that gives a reasonable benchmark for what Frank Catalanotto will bring on the market.

Oh yeah.  It seems that the owners are making money, thank you very much.  DeRosa had a fair year.  He, of course, has a lot more value as a second baseman than he would in the outfield. 

DeRosa's 06 season screams fluke to me. I find it hard to believe he will be able to improve or sustain last season's performance. But the Cubs are only paying him 13 million over 3 years, so even if he flames out, his contract won't cripple the Cubs ability to make other moves.

This won't really affect the free-agent market until the A's start nabbing big-time players in 2011 or so, but check out the artistic renderings of the super-cool new Cisco Field, scheduled to open in four and a half years.  It's like a better version of Petco Park.  And although the "Fremont A's" sounds a bit ridiculous, I did happen to check out a ballgame at McAfee Coliseum this year...and it's a du-ump.  One point of interest:  The architects do not seem inclined to preserve the extremely large foul territory quirk of the Coliseum.  Probably better for the folks in the good seats.

And if you're in the mood for more ballpark renderings, there's always slightly-less-cool Citi Field, scheduled to open in Flushing in 2009 (the ground was broken yesterday).  As with the A's, it will be a big improvement over Shea (which is less dumpy but certainly still a dump).  The Jackie Robinson Rotunda is a nice touch.

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20061114&content_id=1740585&vkey=hotstove2006&fext=.jsp

Around 12 teams have contacted Zaun and he has recieved 2 offers.

It's looking like it will take at least a  2 year/12 million contract to get Zaun back.

What's Mike Lieberthal up to these days? For that moola, I'm sure we could get him quietly. Or Molina...

But I'm also happy for Zaun, if he can get a 12 million deal somewhere, it'll be a nice pay cheque he deserves to cap of his career.  

And this is interesting too.

"They had a chance to eliminate free agency from my future by making me a substantial offer, which they never did," Zaun said. "Had they decided to make me an offer any time during the second half of the season or any time during the period in which they had exclusive [negotiating] rights, I would've certainly been willing to listen.

It seems that JP overplayed his hand here. Instead of getting the 3 million per year that Zaun wanted earlier in the season, JP let him go to Free Agency, and if he wants him back, its gonna cost more. But Zaun for over 3 million/year I'd stay away from.  

It's not the money that matters, its the number of years. 1 year would be ideal, and 2 would be alright if it had to be done.

Molina will get more than 6 million dollars, and I'd much rather have Zaun at 6 million than Molina. Just wait until Bengie gets 400 ABs against righties next year. Hopefully it won't be on this team.

Look at the options surrounding catchers. There aren't many. If JP lives in a little world where he makes offers based on what he feels the players deserve, Jason Phillips will be the starting catcher next year.

Give Zaun his money.

 

Looks like I'm not the only one who sees the value in a catcher who can hit right handed pitching.

There is no doubt the ball was dropped here... big time.

The Sun reports that Ricciardi says: "We have 10 to 12 balls in the air and that includes both free agents and trades".

http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Baseball/MLB/Toronto/2006/11/14/2351801-sun.html

I would love to see the Jays surprise everybody with a trade out of left field.  I would also love to see them sign A.Gonzalez - at least this way they will guarantee themselves gold glove defense at SS, keep Hill at 2B, and have $ left for two SP's and a decent bat. 

One of those Starting Pitchers could be had via a trade with the Whitesox.  The Sox are dangling Javier Vazquez to the Mets (he is owed $9.5 million next season with the other $3 million covered by Arizona) and apparantly would not ask much for him.  Other then Lilly's free agent yr, is he not better then Lilly?  One of Aaron Heilman, Mike Pelfrey or Philip Humber are being mentioned as trade bait for him.  What would be the equivalent  player on the Jays - maybe Rosario?

Vazquez: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=3786

Lilly: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4062

I really hope J.P. isn't completely misreading the market again, like he did with the Delgado offer, which many thought sounded reasonable at the time, before the market bore twice as much.  If Zaun gets 6 million from someone else, that shows a switch-hitting, good offense, decent defense catcher is worth that much today. The good news seems to be the Yankees aren't expanding payroll anymore (although who knows what trade they might pull), but the bad news is that everyone else is instead. An extra 20 million in this market might serve you best in trades, but it's hard to retool the team, again, after a reasonably successful year.

It just occurred to me: how much would Burnett or Ryan have gotten this offseason? I thought they were way overpaying at the time (but hell, they had money to spend, I was happy they managed to spend it), but now those deals look better if Lilly or Padilla get 10 million/year.

Also, soon A-Rod might not have to wear the mantle of most paid player anymore, if the Red Sox rumours (51 million + 30+ million /3 years or so is what I've been reading) are true. Sure, technically, Matsuzaka won't get it all, but that 51 million is going to hang over his head forever, no matter how good he is.

If Zaun has a 2-year $12 million offer on the table and hasn't signed it already, then both he and the team making the offer have a screw loose, even considering the extra money out there this off-season.

No discussion on the D-Mat signing?

I think the Red Sox have a trick up their sleave. Here it is. They know that the club shares some money with the player. They know that bidding so much gives them all the leverage because, hey they bid so much, if you don't wanna go 5 years and 40 million then back to Japan for you for 2 years. Of course, it would be a horrible PR move for the Red Sox and hurt their credibility dramatically...I just can't see how much Boras thinks he can wiggle out of them for this pitcher who I think may not be THISSSSSS good.

Also, I think the money will help Japanese baseball, or at least the Lions. And MLB will increase its popularity in Japan.

And hey, I'm excited, we get to see both D-Mat and Iwaruma guy (the Devil Rays won him) in our division. Hopefully he's not too good. :)

Further logic goes like this. The Red Sox were going to get drained of probably near 100 milloin anyway to sign him, so why not do this to get leverage and for surely win him...and not have the money count as going to the luxury tax. As well, the cost of frontline talent today is almost near 20 million per year...If Zito will get aroun 16/year, then a Johan Santana and Roger Clemens type would be near 20, thus...there it is. And the fact that there marketing will explode into Japan because D-Mat is a superstar there can only help.

Blair's latest up, Floyd has a fiancee  from T.O. and another minor league  signing.

Cliff Floyd's injury  status.

I'd offer Zaun $4.25 mil for '07 and $5 mil for '08 and that's it. Who the hell is offering 2/$12 mil? 2/$9.25 mil is more than reasonable for what he can contribute and considering that he's more of a platoon catcher than a 130 game catcher. Good luck to those who consider him a full time catcher as he runs on fumes in July and August. I would love to see him come back here, but only at the right price.

The Coliseum isn't that much of a dump.  After every game, the seagulls even come in to clean up the mess by eating everything.  Too bad they replace it with bird droppings.

Got to agree with Shea, that place is a dump.  Except for the home run apple, that thing is awesome!

It's looking like it will take at least a  2 year/12 million contract to get Zaun back.

If some team is crazy enough to do that, then Zaun should take the money and run.  Like he said in the article, this is his last chance to truly cash in, so he really ought to maximize his earnings.

However, as much as I like Zaun, I've seen enough in his 3 years in Toronto to suggest that he does not have the stamina to be an everyday catcher.  Post all-star break, his hitting numbers have gone into the toilet in each of the last 3 years.  It's also worth pointing out that catchers typically don't age well, and Zaun is 35.

The Jays are better off looking elsewhere if it's going to take more than 3-4 MM per season to sign Zaun. 

One of those Starting Pitchers could be had via a trade with the Whitesox.  The Sox are dangling Javier Vazquez to the Mets (he is owed $9.5 million next season with the other $3 million covered by Arizona) and apparantly would not ask much for him.  Other then Lilly's free agent yr, is he not better then Lilly?  One of Aaron Heilman, Mike Pelfrey or Philip Humber are being mentioned as trade bait for him.  What would be the equivalent  player on the Jays - maybe Rosario?

Sorry Melon -- while I agree that Vazquez and Lilly are approximately the same pitcher, the trade value of Rosario is nowhere near that of Heilman, Pelfrey, or Humber.  That's pure home town fantasy.  I don't think there is any pitcher in the Jays minor league system who has equal trade value to any those Mets pitchers.

Jacko: Brandon League and he ain't goin' nowhere. ;)

I wouldn't move League for Vazquez..  On second thought, the Jays should over spend on Meche or Padilla as well as Spier.

From Fox Sports, it appears that one un-named agent feels that the Blue Jays will be "very active", explaning "I think the division is ready to be taken".  It also states that the Jays would have to be over whelmed to deal Vernon.  I wonder how much the agent is trying to prop up his client's value, considering the division is about to be "taken" by no-one other then the Yankees to Red Sox.  I think hoping for a wild card is in the clubs best shot again (unless a surprise to two brews up).

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6168854

Re: Matsuzaka, there should be an Allan Ryan story coming out this morning about the signing, featuring differing opinions from Al Leiter and Will Carroll over the details of the gyro. (I tell you, I don't know who to believe there.)

DeRosa signing with the Cubs is perfect.  Just  perfect.  A useful backup who has a career year at age 31. That Jim Hendry is one sharp cat.

 Re-signing Ted Lilly isn't looking good: His agent says he doesn't think the Jays will be able to afford him, which can't possibly be a good sign. Padilla's agent seems much more positive, though. Padilla and Wolf would be nice additions.

Well, in the same article JP says that the agent doesn't know what the Jays can spend.  And Padilla and Lilly will be in the same ballpark salary-wise so if the Jays are in on Padilla they should be in on Lilly. 

Of course, all other things being equal, the Jays would be better off letting Lilly go and signing a replacement as they'd pick up a sandwich pick (Lilly, Meche, and Padilla are all Bs).  Not that they should try to get that cute - if they try that they might end up with nothing.
---
What strikes me as a little odd is why Mussina wouldn't shop himself around more.  It sounds like he and the Yankees are going to sign a two year deal.  I would think he could force the Yankees to give him a third year pretty easily given his history (27 or more starts the last 12 years) just by exploring the market.  Jamie Moyer and El Duque each got 2 years and they're several years older.

What strikes me as a little odd is why Mussina wouldn't shop himself around more.

Just speculating here... I believe Mussina lives in Baltimore, so NY has appeal both for its proximity to his home and, of course, the perpetual possibility of a World Series run, something that may be growingly important to a player whose career may be winding down.

I do agree that in a world where El Duque signs for 2/12 (!!!!), Mussina's agent should be able to leverage a third guaranteed year on an extension.

I'm sure that's the case, but if Mets, Orioles, Phillies or some other team offered him 3 or 4 years I'm sure the Yankees wouldn't let him leave over a third year.  Mussina had more leverage than he used.

It looks like it's a done deal, 2 years, $22.5 million.

Considering that Ted Lilly might leave, it will be worth "over-paying" for a new starting pitcher. Having 3 solid options in the rotation AT LEAST is absolutely mandatory. Think about it, the Jays are this close to making the playoffs, they gotta cap it off by getting a pitcher or two. I think that Ted Lilly is being overvalued in the market, he throws too many pitches early on and lets up a lot of homeruns, and not that many innings.....if he goes to the NL, I see him being a top 10 pitcher. He also has genuine motivation, but I think Vicente Padilla is a better pitcher. Just give the man 4 years and 40 million and be done with it...he's only 28 and throws hard. He is a bit of a headcase but he likes it in Toronto. If the Jays don't get him or Wolf, they could go home empty handed. Plus, buying Alex Gonzalez saves money to go to the rotaiton....JP is smart for not getting Lugo at $8 million per, unless its 3 years. I personally like Randy Wolf a bit more then Gil Meche, as I think he's a little more proven, and Meche could tank. JP just needs to bring in a lot of depth, at infield and pitching. I also think Mike Lieberthal would be the best catching option. Justin Speier will get too much money too to be a closer. JP has to go in for the kill, and get new FA even if he lost his leaving ones.

Well, in the same article JP says that the agent doesn't know what the Jays can spend.  And Padilla and Lilly will be in the same ballpark salary-wise so if the Jays are in on Padilla they should be in on Lilly. 

True, but how often do you hear an agent say that a team isn't in the running, particularly the player's previous team? I'd expect to hear something more generic like "Ted would certainly like to come back to Toronto, and we'll listen to whatever offers they bring to the table." (or something similar to what Padilla's agent said)  

  It just seems like a very aggressive negotiating stance for this early in the offseason. Maybe I'm reading too much into it.

All that clanking you're hearing is from the brass balls of agents with pitchers as clients.

Musina was not a Free Agent so he couldn't get other teams involved.
"The team had until Wednesday to exercise a $17 million option, which carried a $1.5 million buyout, or renegotiate with the right-hander"

Well, in the same article JP says that the agent doesn't know what the Jays can spend.  And Padilla and Lilly will be in the same ballpark salary-wise so if the Jays are in on Padilla they should be in on Lilly.

Ironically, JP doesn't know what he can spend either.

Of course JP knows what he has to spend.

I like the idea of not letting teams and agents know what they have to spend. It definitely changes bargaining leverage, if an agent has no idea what cards the GM is holding.

I would be interested to hear what kind of impact AJ's signing last season has on other agents, GM's, and players.

A couple of years ago, it was extremely rare to see a FA pitcher get anything beyond 3 years. AJ with his career .500 record got a 5 year contract for the Jays and then Washburn was able to get 4 years from the Mariners. Now it seems like all the middle tier starting pitchers are looking for 4 years (Lilly, Padilla, Meche, etc...) and will likely get it.

If I'm not mistaken, Burnett has an out-clause after 2008, in light of the Ramirez situation with the Cubs and the extreme demand for starting pitching in the current marketplace, you'd have to think if he's healthy he'll excercise  this clause.

For those who like to follow advanced defensive  metrics, Dave Pinto has started his annual series on his blog.....guess which team was the most efficient?

I will say this, the team in question truly seems to have a fine defensive outfield which may account for these somewhat surprising results.

The odd part is that Wells and Rios were average using Pinto's metrics for 2005.  However, those weren't done using the "smoothed visiting player model". 

For myself, I prefer to see the entire breakdown for players (i.e. by each location and ball type) and hopefully their opponents, not just the result.  Unfortunately, that is not commonly done when posting defensive metrics. 

I think if the Blue Jays are to come out of the offseason with most of, if not all of what they want, they need to put their money on the table early.  Why not put four years in front of Lugo  and force the Red Sox hand? They are already preoccupied with Matsuzaka and J.D. Drew, perhaps if the Jays made a pre emptive move for Julio, than we could shave a few million of his price.  IMO, if Ricciardi does not make an agressive, early push for Lugo then we will definitley get outbid later. I thought last November he was very smart for making an aggressive early push for B.J. Ryan because we all know what happened after that (Burnett and Glaus were impressed by the commitment to a better ballclub). 

 

Heath Bell and Royce Ring to the Padres for Ben Johnson and Jon Adkins.  Johnson was born in 1981, just a few years before the other Ben Johnson won his first medal.

Arnold was plagued by questions about his makeup and desire throughout his career. He also lost a fair bit of zip off his fastball in the previous two seasons. His changes were dim to be an impact player at the MLB level.

After crunching come numbers, I would rather have Jason Schmidt, as long as you can get him for a three-year deal, with perhaps a vesting option for the fourth year based on innings.

Baseball Reference has a very cool addition to its player cards- seasonal and career splits.  So, if you want to find out how Sandy Koufax fared in clutch situations, you can (hint: the closer the game was, the better he pitched).  By contrast, Bert Blyleven did pitch better when the margin was more than 4 runs than he did otherwise.  If you want to find out whether Rance Mulliniks had an unusual home/road split, you can (he didn't).  And that's just the half of it.  Check it out.

espn.com is reporting that the Jays are close to signing Frank Thomas to a two-year deal.  Didn't see this one coming...

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2663691

just really started thinking about this...Big Hurt, Glaus, and Wells as your three, four, five...yikes.  So does Lind move into LF and we saw goodbye to Cat?

Terrific news!

Of course, what I really wanted was for the Jays to sign Thomas last year, when he'd only cost 500k.   Still, I'm a HUGE fan of the big hurt so I really hope this is true.

Hold your horses - he is "closing in on deal" not closed the deal.

Yes, I agree it would most definately be a HUGE signing for next season.  There is a ton of $ out there and he just put up a monster yr.  I would guess at least $5 million per season + incentives (how much does Zaun expect to get again?)  If this actually happens, I suppose that Lind will be dealt, possibly for a middle infielder or starting pitcher.  They have already stated that he is not a good defender and Frank has to play DH.

Interesting.  I didn't have full-time DH as a high priority this offseason, but when you're acquiring one of the best hitters of all time, you can't complain.  This transaction would seem to indicate that the Jays are satisfied with Glaus's defense at 3B and are confident he can play full-time the next 2 years. 

Can't Lind at least play a passable left?  I wouldn't mind seeing Wells dealt for pitching, while Rios/Johnson moves to center and Lind plays left.

Hopefully Thomas to Toronto works (and for less than $10 per year).  Now what does that mean?

1B: Overbay - lock
2B: Hill or free agent
SS: Hill or free agent
3B: Glaus
LF: Johnson
CF: Wells
RF: Rios
DH: Thomas
CA: ???

So, while DH is filled and Cat is almost certainly gone what next?  SS/2B and CA are major holes as the Jays don't have viable options internally at the moment (Zaun and Molina I don't count until/unless they sign, Phillips/Adams/McDonald aren't real options right now except as backups, the minors don't have anyone ready to step in at either position right now).  If Wells is traded then maybe the Jays can get a SS and CA in that trade while moving Johnson to RF, Rios to CF, and take a shot at Lind in LF or bring back Cat.  Getting Thomas opens that option more as Thomas should (if healthy) produce at least as well as Wells offensively while Rios and Johnson are both very capable in the OF.

Shoe #1 appears to have dropped.  Will #2 be a trade or free agent signing? SS, CA, or a pitcher or something else?

Well, another interesting offseason is off and running.     

This I believe would signal a Reed Johnson/Adam Lind platoon in leftfield... It's not a bad signing, but this is going to be by no means cheap. Thomas gets 7 million per year atleast in this. This also limits the funds J.P. has to address the holes in the rotation and in the middle infield.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6177240

Rosenthal reports $23 million over 2 years with an option for a 3rd year.  Wow!  That is a very steep price to pay for a full-time DH, I don't care how good he is.  This raises questions about how much do the Jays actually have to spend and if other moves are in the works to make this financial commitment possible.

Definite sticker shock.  Without knowledge of the Jays' budget situation and the nature of the negotiations with Wells, it's diffult to evaluate this move entirely accurately.  2 more thoughts:

• JP is aggressive and knows what he wants.  He is not very patient.  Love him or hate him, he keeps things interesting.
• This signing bodes well for a sizable budget increase.  There are too many other holes to fill (middle infield, starting pitcher, catcher, etc.) to leave, say, $5 million to fill all of them.  JP has to have a decent amount of payroll left to fill these holes or this move would be suicide.

Looks like it is true.

 

www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/article.jsp?content=20061115_212220_2784

Before this off-season is over, Thomas at 2/$23M could look like a bargain. And by no means do I think it's a bargain -- it's a ton of money for a guy who, like Troy Glaus, can shatter if dropped from a height. But this reported near-signing tells me that the amount of money out there about to be spent on free agents is mind-boggling. Alfonso Soriano's eventual contract will blow people away.

But there's precedent for this. Remember what JP did last winter with BJ Ryan: he set the market instead of waiting for other teams to set it. After Ryan signed with Toronto, other teams had to settle for lesser talent at a now-inflated price. This looks like the same deal here: someone was going to give Thomas a lot of money, so it might as well be the Jays. The market has been set.

If the reports are accurate, this would be a little less than half of the new money that JP had to spend this off-season, and I assume he'll spend the other half either bringing back Ted Lilly or (more likely) his non-union Mexican equivalent as soon as he can, before the market thins out and prices climb higher. (FWIW, I think Lilly is going to score an insane contract from someone like the Cubs or Dodgers). I think this also spells the end of the Julio Lugo chase almost before it began. In this market, $20M in new payroll buys you two solid veterans. Remember when $20M was 40% of the entire team payroll? It wasn't that long ago.

Oh, and if this signing goes through, will the Toronto Star mention that the Jays have signed an African-American player?

Does this smell like an overpayment in order to get more big name free agents to look at T.O., much like last yr?

It may be time to adjust our barometers. The bar has definitely moved. Those owners are just swell guys, aren't they? Losing their shirts owning baseball teams and yet so philanthropic.

Is the Thomas signing symptomatic of an off-season strategy, or just a one off decision? Could it be that the brass has decided that their money is more wisely invested upgrading the offense rather than the pitching?

Members of the Meche/Lilly/Padilla family of FA pitchers figure to likely outperform the likes of Chacin/Marcum/Janssen, but does that presumed gain in productivity warrant the bump from $300K to $10M? Perhaps Ricciardi hopes to fashion an offense that can tolerate ERA's of 5.00 at the back of the rotation.

Halladay and Burnett and pray for rain? D'oh. There's that damned roof.

My speculation is that JP has (probably correctly) realized that it is going to cost close to 8-10 million a year to sign one of either Meche or Lilly.  And so based on "what's the biggest upgrade I can get for $10 million" theory, he's likely decided to go with more hitting than pitching, simply because the hitting upgrade is significantly cheaper (and based on what numbers the pitcher's agents are throwing around, he's probably right).

If indeed we keep Wells, sign a lower level veteran SP (probably more like Wolf-Eaton-Redman) and hope and pray that either Marcum-Janssen-Towers-someone makes a big jump, we should be okay.

And this whole "plodding up the basepaths" is ridiculous.  Johnson-Rios-Wells-Glaus-Thomas-Overbay is as good a 1-6 as you'll find in the big leagues.  Who cares about this team speed nonsense.

My first strong hunch - the budget is significantly bigger than we think it is.   Do your recall JP saying about Lilly's agent that he has no idea what our budget is?   That could have been a bluff, but I think that it was a quiet shot across the bow of this entire FA market.

 This move, whether or not it finally closes, sends two messages to the agents and players in the free agent pool:

• The Jays have the budget to be players, so take us seriously
• The Jays are going all out to win now, so any interested player would be joining a team investing to make (and win) the playoffs and moreover, a team that may well have the talent to pull that off.

How much more money do I mean?  I am thinking Ted Rogers has said to JP - if you have the chance to land better than average players, you can spend up to $100MM or even a little bit more.  

My second strong hunch - JP will now make a real try to re-sign Wells showing him how hard he is working to make the Jays stronger.  If that does not work, he is planning to have Wells stay on for another year, avoiding all trades unless some GM offers him a better than average solution to two of his other gaps - MI, CA, SP.  Wells current salary cost will be readily handleable in 2007, and the resulting hitting line up would be murderous.  This would give Lind more time to break in as a corner outfielder.  He could still afford to retain Zaun, and buy both a short stop of the Gonzalez calibre and a starting pitcher of the Meche/Padilla/Lilly calibre.

There will be limits - Catalanotto, Speier, Molina are surely not coming back; if Lilly costs a lot more than Meche/Padilla, then he is not returning; Lugo will be too expensive a solution for the middle infield.

In summary, I think JP and Ted Rogers both know that this is the year they have plotted and schemed to get ready for.  There is little to be gained by being penny wise now (except, of course, by trading for Brad Penny) now that this year has finally arrived. 

A Thomas signing thread is up.

Who is likely to offer more overall value to a club over the next 2 years, Julio Lugo or Frank Thomas?

The answer to that question seems pretty obvious to me-Julio Lugo.  I think that Frank Thomas is a great, great hitter, but he will be 39 in May.  It's not reasonable to expect more than 300-400 at-bats from him in a season.  Maybe, when the dollar figures are confirmed, this will all make sense.  For now, my eyebrows are raised almost to the height of my rapidly receding hairline.