When we bring the discussion round to career wins by pitchers, we encounter a very serious question.
Where to set the bar?
There are 22 pitchers in the history of the game who have won 300 games, and the 25th man on the all-time list has 288 career victories. Here is the list.
The next generation of great pitchers atop this leaderboard - Christy Mathewson, Walter Johnson, Pete Alexander, Eddie Plank - present a different problem. These men spent all or much of their careers pitching before the Ruth Revolution. By demonstrating that it was possible to try to hit home runs and succeed, Ruth drastically changed how every pitcher in baseball approached the game. Beginning in the 1920s, every pitcher worked under the burden that it was possible for a run to score at any moment. Consequently, simply lobbing batting practise fastballs down the middle until a crisis developed was no longer an option.
Now if we were to confine ourselves to a Top 25 of pitchers who began their careers after the Ruth Revolution, the list would look like this:
This is still a pretty impressive bunch. But the history of the game did not begin in 1920, and it just isn't right to forget about the work of Christy Mathewson because he happened to be born in 1880. It's also pretty clear that Dennis Martinez and Jack Morris are not likely to end up in the Hall of Fame, and the bar really does need to be a little bit higher than 245 wins. (Even if all sorts of pitchers with fewer wins than that seemed to have no problem gaining admission. Jesse Haines? Waite Hoyt?)
Whatever. I'm going to measure today's pitchers against the actual all-time list, but we must always remember that the pace established by at least half the men on the Top 25 is... well, it's completely irrelevant. Except that we do still think of 300 wins as one of the Big Numbers, don't we? But I want to expand it a little - to compensate for the 50 foot men, I'm going to add another seven pitchers to the all-time list, and measure today's crop against the Top 32 of all time.
I have to add seven because one of them (Tony Mullane) is another 50 foot man. And while Cy Young and Kid Nichols both started their careers pitching from the shorter distance, Young still won more games (439) than anyone else at the modern distance. Kid Nichols won 263 games after they moved the mound back; while he stopped pitching 400 plus innings a year, he still averaged just over 30 wins a season in his first six seasons at the new distance (this was after winning 98 games in first three major league seasons at the old distance.) Nichols was one of the greatest pitchers who ever lived, even if no one remembers him. (Well, I suppose everyone who saw him play is dead now - his last game was on May 18, 1906.) Anyway, let's not forget him here.
Younger players are normally in the best position when we assess the progress they're making. Every young player comes into the game with a blank slate - all possibilities are still open. At some point, every young pitcher is on the same track as Cy Young. Everybody begins with zero. Then they start playing the games, and the more they play, the farther they fall behind Cy Young. Or Ty Cobb. Or whoever. Anyway, this list is no exception. When I say C.C. Sabatia stands 11th, I mean that only 10 of the men in the Top 32, plus all the active pitchers his age or older, had more wins than Sabathia through age 25. The older an active pitcher gets, of course, the fewer men he's competing against. There are 51 pitchers in this study, but only Jeremy Bonderman is ranked against the complete list. Sabathia, Peavy, and Prior are ranked in a list of 49 (everyone except Bonderman and Willis). This would lead you to assume that Beckett would be ranked against a list of 47 (everyone except the five pitchers younger than he - Bonderman, Willis, Sabathia, Peavy, and Prior). Except two of those men - Sabathia and Willis - have already won more games than Beckett and have to be included as among the men Beckett is trailing. At the other end of the scale, Schilling is listed as trailing the 32 men on the list, as well as two younger pitchers with more career wins (Mussina and Martinez).
OK, enough of that....
C.C. Sabathia (81 through age 25, 11th) - Not a bad start. The big fella is ahead of everyone except: a) six men who pitched primarily in the 19th century (Nichols, Welch, Mathews, Clarkson, Galvin, and Mullane); b) two men who started their careers before the Ruth Revolution (Mathewson and Johnson); c) Bert Blyleven and Robin Roberts. It's pretty impressive, but how long do you think he can lug all that weight around? There are no shortage of men who have won 150 games by age 30. When Dwight Gooden was Sabathia's age, he'd won 119 games. The hard part is winning 150 after age 30.
Jeremy Bonderman (45 through 23, 12th) - He is improving by small, incremental steps each season. Every year he gets a little bit better at keeping the ball in the yard and avoiding the base on balls. He strikes out almost a batter an inning. I can't help but assume that one of these years, he's just going to explode on the AL. Still, it hasn't happened yet, and we do need to see some evidence that he's going to be a truly outstanding pitcher, rather than a solid innings-eater. But in the meantime, he's ahead of everyone except: a) the 19th century crew (Mathews, Nichols, Welch, Clarkson, Galvin) b) Christy Mathewson and Walter Johnson - no shame there; c) several other active pitchers - Sabathia, Willis, Maddux; d) Bert Blyleven.
Dontrelle Willis (58 through age 24, 14th) - It's a little difficult to figure out just how good Willis is - his remarkable 2005 season came about in large part because it was almost impossible to hit a home run against him. Things returned to normal in 2006. But he started young, and he's pitched pretty well. He's behind the 19th century crew (Mathews, Nichols, Welch, Clarkson, Galvin, Mullane); he's behind Christy Mathewson and Walter Johnson; he's behind Sabathia, Clemens, and Maddux from the still-active pile. And he's behind Bert Blyleven and Robin Roberts. Which means he's ahead of Seaver, Sutton, Carlton, John, Ruffing, Wynn, Kaat, Young, Ryan, Alexander, Jenkins, Grimes, Perry, Plank, Spahn, Grove, and Niekro. Not bad. Now it must be noted that Lefty Grove and Warren Spahn were both 25 years old when they won their first major league game (Grove was stuck in Baltimore, Spahn was fighting a war), so pretty well every young pitcher will be ahead of them. Ty Taubenheim and Davis Romero (not to mention McGowan, League, Chacin, Marcum, Janssen) have more wins than Lefty Grove did at their age. I think they would be well advised to enjoy the moment.
Mark Buehrle (97 through age 27, 20th) - Didn't expect to see him in such a fine position, but despite the off year in 2006, he's been moving along at a pretty nice clip. He makes his living in Hostile Conditions - in a hitter's park in the the DH league - but he dealx with it. He's one win behind Jim Kaat at the same age, and he's ahead of such worthies as Alexander, Jenkins, Ryan, Ruffing, Grimes, Wynn, John, Plank, Spahn, Grove, and Niekro. He's even ahead of Hoss Radbourn. Of course, Radbourn won 48 games in his age 28 season, which Buehrle will be hard pressed to match. Of the active pitchers his age or older, he's ahead of Mulder, Glavine, Mussina, Oswalt, Pettite, Hudson, Santana, Halladay, Colon, Carpenter, Johnson, and Schilling. At first glance, his 2006 season looks pretty alarming - his strikeouts fell to an unacceptable low, and he couldn't keep the ball in the park. On the other hand, all that really happened was he had one awful month. If you take out July, he was 12-8, 4.01 - basically, not all that different from what he always does. He's kind of the new Tom Glavine, just not quite as good.
Jake Peavy (57 through 25, 23rd) - Of the young guns, this is the one I like best. He has many of the same advantages as Bonderman, plus he works in the weaker league. I think he's clearly been a better pitcher than Bonderman or Sabathia, and he's done better at staying in the lineup than Prior or Beckett. For now, he's ahead of Kaat, Ruffing, John, Jenkins, Ryan, Alexander, Wynn, Grimes, Plank, Perry, Grove, Spahn, and Niekro. Also ahead of Keefe and Radbourn from the 19th century list, and Glavine, Mussina, Pettite, Hudson, Oswalt, Santana, Prior, Halladay, Carpenter, Colon, Schilling and Johnson of the active pitchers his age or older.
Pedro Martinez (206 through age 34, 24th) - Pedro was making very nice progress until the doctors finally decided that the time was now for the long-expected shoulder surgery. Never a good thing. He was actually ahead of some pretty impressive pitchers: Lefty Grove, Eddie Plank, Early Wynn, Kaat, Ryan, Spahn, Perry, John, and Niekro. Now... who knows? I suppose that all bets are off, but this is still Pedro Martinez we're talking about. While he may leave that 95 mph heater on the operating table, I think he's already demonstrated that he knows how to pitch and how to win without it. Of the active pitchers his age or older, Pedro is ahead of Mussina, Pettite, Johnson and Schilling.
Mark Mulder (103 through age 28, 26th)
Barry Zito (102 through age 28, 27th)
Roy Oswalt (98 through age 28, 29th)
These three men are more or less in a dead heat, so we'll consider them together. They're more or less the same age - Mulder is three weeks older than Oswalt, and Zito is nine months younger than both. They're within five wins of one another; Mulder has the most wins, barely. Oswalt has the best career K rate, but his advantage over Zito in this regard is entirely a matter of spending his entire career in the NL and pitching to other pitchers rather than designated hitters. Mulder has had injury issues at various times during hs career; Zito has never missed a start since arriving in the majors, and Oswalt has a very fine health record as well. Oswalt is somewhat slightly built, but he is the best of the three pitchers. Not by much, though. Each of the three is ahead of Ruffing, Grimes, Plank, John, Wynn, Grove, Spahn, Perry, and Niekro. Of the active pitchers their age or older, they're ahead of Hudson, Halladay, Colon, Carpenter, Johnson and Schilling. Mulder and Zito are also ahead of Pettite.
Mike Mussina (239 through age 37, 29th) - Mussina slipped behind Warren Spahn's pace this past season, after being ahead of Spahnie's winning pace for his entire career. He's still ahead of Gaylord Perry, Nolan Ryan, Tommy John, and Niekro. He's also well ahead of Randy Johnson, among the active pitchers his age or older. Mussina is not quite as durable as he used to be, but he was still very, very effective in 2006. His strikeout rate is very strong, he never walks anybody, he's still hard to hit. His team scores some runs for him. He could go on like this for another three or four years.
Tim Hudson (119 through age 30, 31st) - The most comparable pitcher to Hudson at age 30, according to baseball-reference.com, is Black Jack McDowell. McDowell was also a skinny right-hander, even skinnier than Hudson, and he also won 13 games in his age 30 season. But McDowell, who had 119 career wins at that point, would only win 8 more games afterwards. Let's hope Hudson can avoid that destiny. He's coming off by far the worst year of his career - but he was able to stay in the rotation and make all of his starts for the first time in three years, and his strikeout rate is still very healthy. He's ahead of Grove, John, Spahn, Perry and Niekro. Of the active pitchers his age or older, he is ahead of Colon, Carpenter, Johnson and Schilling.
Andy Pettite (186 through age 34, 31st) - He just keeps rolling along, doesn't he? After a brilliant comeback year in 2005, Pettite came gliding back to earth. But he still put together a solid season, and also came within 2 Ks of matching his career high in strikeouts. That's a story, too. Pettite has now played 12 seasons in the majors - over the first six, he averaged 6.01 strikeouts per 9 innings (low of 5.50 and a high 6.60) - in the last six seasons, he has averaged 7.35 strikeouts per 9 (low of 6.48 and a high of 8.57). Only some of this can be attributed to his move to the National League three years ago. He's never really had a bad season, and he appears to be fairly healthy. In other words, he could go on like this for several more years. He's ahead of Spahn, Perry, John, and Niekro. Of the active pitchers his age or older, he is ahead of Johnson and Schilling.
Johan Santana (78 through age 27, 34th) - The best pitcher in the world, obviously. He's really in a class by itself at this point. The Twins took their time making him a full-time starter, or otherwise he might have 100 wins by now. It'll likely pay off for someone ten years from now, although it probably won't be the Twins. After just three years as a full-time starter, Santana is ahead of Wynn, John, Plank, Spahn, Grove, and Niekro. Of the active pitchers his age or older, he's ahead of Halladay, Colon, Carpenter, Johnson, and Schilling.
Bartolo Colon (140 through age 33, 34th) - A lost year for the defending Cy Young winner. He's still ahead of John and Niekro, but I have noticed that none of the men who pitched effectively into their 40s weighed almost 300 pounds. Especially if they stood less than six feet tall. I'll be surprised and impressed if he makes it to 200 wins. Of the active pitchers his age or older, he is ahead of Johnson and Schilling.
Curt Schilling (192 through age 38, 35th) - Obviously, Schilling has no chance whatsoever of cracking the top of these lists - like Randy Johnson, his old teammate, he got started rather late and while he does have 14 more wins than Phil Niekro had at his age, I don't think he's going to develop a knuckleball and pitch until he's 48. In fact, he's already said 2007 will be his last season, although people have been known to change their minds. So he's just going to get the 8 wins he needs to clear 200, which should allow him to coast into the Hall of Fame on a) his peak level of performance, which is awfully impressive; b) his post-season resume, which is simply one of the greatest of all time, and certainly the greatest of our age; c) his bloody sock.
Roy Halladay (95 through age 29, 37th) - For some reason, I think Doc is going to end up with career numbers quite a bit like Catfish Hunter's - which means I expect him to win another 130 games. Obviously, their career shapes have nothing in common - it's just me with one of my irrational hunches. While his fastball, even in 2006, still gusts up to 94 mph, and he's certainly built like a power pitcher, Doc may actually have more in common with Greg Maddux than any of the other outstanding pitchers of recent years. He's not that good, of course, but not too many pitchers in the history of the game have been as good as Maddux. Both men are dedicated to the proposition that a hitter has to earn his way on base; both of them believe in getting the at bat, and the inning, over with as quickly and as economically as possible. Doc gives up more hits than Mad Dog did in his prime, although quite a bit of that represents the difference between the two leagues. For the same reason, Maddux's strikeout rates in the mid 1990s were often better than Halladay's, who had to face DHs rather than pitchers. With 95 wins at age 29, he's even with Tommy John, and ahead of Grove, Spahn, Perry, and Niekro. Of the active pitchers his age or older, he is ahead of Colon, Carpenter, Johnson and Schilling.
Chris Carpenter (100 through age 31, 39th) - When he was 28 years old, Carpenter had a career record of 49-50, 4.83 - not to mention that he'd just missed an entire season with shoulder surgery. So really - who knew? The injury experience did prompt Carpenter to change his work habits considerably ("I never did so many shoulder exercises in my life - what else could I do though? I couldn't play."). The results speak for themselves. In his three years in St. Louis he's gone 51-18 and won a Cy Young Award (and may win another in a few weeks.) I really like his chances of winning at least another 100 games, but the fact that he didn't become a good pitcher until he was 29 years old will keep him out of the top part of the all-time lists. For now, the only man he's ahead is the guy who didn't make it into the rotation to stay until he was 28, but kept pitching until he was 48. And threw about as hard as I do. Of the active pitchers his age or older, he is ahead of Johnson and Schilling.
Josh Beckett (57 through age 26, 40th) - There was lots not to like about Beckett's first year in the AL, beginning with that unsightly 5.01 ERA. He gave up a mind-boggling 36 HRs in just over 200 innings - he'd given up just 55 career homers in more than 600 innings in the National League. On the other hand, for the first time in his career, he made 30 starts and pitched 200 innings - the 16 wins was a career high, his strikeout-walk ratios are still very good, and even in the AL he gave up less than a hit an inning. He's obviously had a lot of health issues, but that may end up working to his advantage, keeping his workload under control in the early days of his career. He's even with Grimes, and ahead of Plank, Spahn, Perry, Grove and Niekro (as well as Old Hoss). Of the active pitchers his age or older, he's ahead of Colon, Carpenter, Johnson, and Schilling.
Mark Prior (42 through age 25, 42nd) - Disasters keep happening to Prior, and no one is measuring his HoF plaque anymore. On the other hand, even though it seems like we've been hearing about him forever, he's still just 25 years old. And I still believe that if the Supreme Being were planning to design the Ideal Pitcher, she'd come up with something very much like Mark Prior. And who knows? We may one day regard the endless injuries of the last few years as the thing that saved Prior's career from its ultrimate destruction at the hands of Dusty Baker, Abuser of Pitchers. He's still ahead of Grimes, Plank, Perry, Grove, Johnson, and Niekro (as well as Keefe and Radbourn). Of the active pitchers his age or older, he is still ahead of Beckett, Halladay, Carpenter, Colon, Schilling, and Johnson.
So are any of these active guys going to make it past 270 career wins? Well, why not? Fifteen years ago, there were four active pitchers who would crack the Top 32 (Clemens, Maddux, Glavine, Johnson). Fifteen years before that, there were seven (Carlton, Ryan, Sutton, Niekro, Perry, Seaver, John - plus Jim Palmer, who has since been bumped by today's crop.) So I think I have to single out at least two of today's pitchers, preferably more. So....
Johan Santana
Roy Oswalt
Jake Peavy
Mark Prior
Who else should be part of the discussion? And before you say "Justin Verlander," just on general principle I wouldn't even consider considering someone with less than three years in the majors.
Where to set the bar?
There are 22 pitchers in the history of the game who have won 300 games, and the 25th man on the all-time list has 288 career victories. Here is the list.
1. Cy Young 511The problem, of course, is that some of the top winners of all time racked up their totals when the pitcher stood just 50 feet away from the batter, was obliged to throw underhand, and needed to miss the strike zone nine times before issuing a base on balls. Things have changed a bit since then. Pud Galvin, Tim Keefe, John Clarkson, Charley Radbourn, Mickey Welch, and Bobby Mathews spent all or most of their careers pitching from just 50 feet away. That was still the working distance when Cy Young and Kid Nichols began their remarkable careers, although both men proved more than able to adjust to the modern distance. At any rate, what these great pitchers accomplished helps us very little as we speculate on the future of Jeremy Bonderman or C.C. Sabathia.
2. Walter Johnson 417
3. Pete Alexander 373
Christy Mathewson 373
5. Pud Galvin 364
6. Warren Spahn 363
7. Kid Nichols 361
8. Roger Clemens 348
9. Tim Keefe 342
10. Greg Maddux 333
11. Steve Carlton 329
12. John Clarkson 328
13. Eddie Plank 326
14. Nolan Ryan 324
Don Sutton 324
16. Phil Niekro 318
17. Gaylord Perry 314
18. Tom Seaver 311
19. Charley Radbourn 309
20. Mickey Welch 307
21. Lefty Grove 300
Early Wynn 300
23. Bobby Mathews 297
24. Tom Glavine 290
25. Tommy John 288
The next generation of great pitchers atop this leaderboard - Christy Mathewson, Walter Johnson, Pete Alexander, Eddie Plank - present a different problem. These men spent all or much of their careers pitching before the Ruth Revolution. By demonstrating that it was possible to try to hit home runs and succeed, Ruth drastically changed how every pitcher in baseball approached the game. Beginning in the 1920s, every pitcher worked under the burden that it was possible for a run to score at any moment. Consequently, simply lobbing batting practise fastballs down the middle until a crisis developed was no longer an option.
Now if we were to confine ourselves to a Top 25 of pitchers who began their careers after the Ruth Revolution, the list would look like this:
1. Warren Spahn 363
2. Roger Clemens 348
3. Greg Maddux 333
4. Steve Carlton 329
5. Nolan Ryan 324
Don Sutton 324
7. Phil Niekro 318
8. Gaylord Perry 314
9. Tom Seaver 311
10. Lefty Grove 300
Early Wynn 300
11. Tom Glavine 290
12. Tommy John 288
13. Bert Blyleven 287
14. Robin Roberts 286
15. Fergie Jenkins 284
16. Jim Kaat 283
17. Randy Johnson 280
18. Red Ruffing 273
19. Jim Palmer 268
20. Bob Feller 266
21. Ted Lyons 260
22. Jack Morris 254
23. Carl Hubbell 253
24. Bob Gibson 251
25. Dennis Martinez 245
This is still a pretty impressive bunch. But the history of the game did not begin in 1920, and it just isn't right to forget about the work of Christy Mathewson because he happened to be born in 1880. It's also pretty clear that Dennis Martinez and Jack Morris are not likely to end up in the Hall of Fame, and the bar really does need to be a little bit higher than 245 wins. (Even if all sorts of pitchers with fewer wins than that seemed to have no problem gaining admission. Jesse Haines? Waite Hoyt?)
Whatever. I'm going to measure today's pitchers against the actual all-time list, but we must always remember that the pace established by at least half the men on the Top 25 is... well, it's completely irrelevant. Except that we do still think of 300 wins as one of the Big Numbers, don't we? But I want to expand it a little - to compensate for the 50 foot men, I'm going to add another seven pitchers to the all-time list, and measure today's crop against the Top 32 of all time.
I have to add seven because one of them (Tony Mullane) is another 50 foot man. And while Cy Young and Kid Nichols both started their careers pitching from the shorter distance, Young still won more games (439) than anyone else at the modern distance. Kid Nichols won 263 games after they moved the mound back; while he stopped pitching 400 plus innings a year, he still averaged just over 30 wins a season in his first six seasons at the new distance (this was after winning 98 games in first three major league seasons at the old distance.) Nichols was one of the greatest pitchers who ever lived, even if no one remembers him. (Well, I suppose everyone who saw him play is dead now - his last game was on May 18, 1906.) Anyway, let's not forget him here.
The Top 32!
1. Cy Young 511
2. Walter Johnson 417
3. Pete Alexander 373
Christy Mathewson 373
5. Pud Galvin 364
6. Warren Spahn 363
7. Kid Nichols 361
8. Roger Clemens 348
9. Tim Keefe 342
10. Greg Maddux 333
11. Steve Carlton 329
12. John Clarkson 328
13. Eddie Plank 326
14. Nolan Ryan 324
Don Sutton 324
16. Phil Niekro 318
17. Gaylord Perry 314
18. Tom Seaver 311
19. Charley Radbourn 309
20. Mickey Welch 307
21. Lefty Grove 300
Early Wynn 300
23. Bobby Mathews 297
24. Tom Glavine 290
25. Tommy John 288
26. Bert Blyleven 287
27. Robin Roberts 286
28. Fergie Jenkins 284
Tony Mullane 284
30. Jim Kaat 283
31. Randy Johnson 280
32. Red Ruffing 273
Younger players are normally in the best position when we assess the progress they're making. Every young player comes into the game with a blank slate - all possibilities are still open. At some point, every young pitcher is on the same track as Cy Young. Everybody begins with zero. Then they start playing the games, and the more they play, the farther they fall behind Cy Young. Or Ty Cobb. Or whoever. Anyway, this list is no exception. When I say C.C. Sabatia stands 11th, I mean that only 10 of the men in the Top 32, plus all the active pitchers his age or older, had more wins than Sabathia through age 25. The older an active pitcher gets, of course, the fewer men he's competing against. There are 51 pitchers in this study, but only Jeremy Bonderman is ranked against the complete list. Sabathia, Peavy, and Prior are ranked in a list of 49 (everyone except Bonderman and Willis). This would lead you to assume that Beckett would be ranked against a list of 47 (everyone except the five pitchers younger than he - Bonderman, Willis, Sabathia, Peavy, and Prior). Except two of those men - Sabathia and Willis - have already won more games than Beckett and have to be included as among the men Beckett is trailing. At the other end of the scale, Schilling is listed as trailing the 32 men on the list, as well as two younger pitchers with more career wins (Mussina and Martinez).
OK, enough of that....
C.C. Sabathia (81 through age 25, 11th) - Not a bad start. The big fella is ahead of everyone except: a) six men who pitched primarily in the 19th century (Nichols, Welch, Mathews, Clarkson, Galvin, and Mullane); b) two men who started their careers before the Ruth Revolution (Mathewson and Johnson); c) Bert Blyleven and Robin Roberts. It's pretty impressive, but how long do you think he can lug all that weight around? There are no shortage of men who have won 150 games by age 30. When Dwight Gooden was Sabathia's age, he'd won 119 games. The hard part is winning 150 after age 30.
Jeremy Bonderman (45 through 23, 12th) - He is improving by small, incremental steps each season. Every year he gets a little bit better at keeping the ball in the yard and avoiding the base on balls. He strikes out almost a batter an inning. I can't help but assume that one of these years, he's just going to explode on the AL. Still, it hasn't happened yet, and we do need to see some evidence that he's going to be a truly outstanding pitcher, rather than a solid innings-eater. But in the meantime, he's ahead of everyone except: a) the 19th century crew (Mathews, Nichols, Welch, Clarkson, Galvin) b) Christy Mathewson and Walter Johnson - no shame there; c) several other active pitchers - Sabathia, Willis, Maddux; d) Bert Blyleven.
Dontrelle Willis (58 through age 24, 14th) - It's a little difficult to figure out just how good Willis is - his remarkable 2005 season came about in large part because it was almost impossible to hit a home run against him. Things returned to normal in 2006. But he started young, and he's pitched pretty well. He's behind the 19th century crew (Mathews, Nichols, Welch, Clarkson, Galvin, Mullane); he's behind Christy Mathewson and Walter Johnson; he's behind Sabathia, Clemens, and Maddux from the still-active pile. And he's behind Bert Blyleven and Robin Roberts. Which means he's ahead of Seaver, Sutton, Carlton, John, Ruffing, Wynn, Kaat, Young, Ryan, Alexander, Jenkins, Grimes, Perry, Plank, Spahn, Grove, and Niekro. Not bad. Now it must be noted that Lefty Grove and Warren Spahn were both 25 years old when they won their first major league game (Grove was stuck in Baltimore, Spahn was fighting a war), so pretty well every young pitcher will be ahead of them. Ty Taubenheim and Davis Romero (not to mention McGowan, League, Chacin, Marcum, Janssen) have more wins than Lefty Grove did at their age. I think they would be well advised to enjoy the moment.
Mark Buehrle (97 through age 27, 20th) - Didn't expect to see him in such a fine position, but despite the off year in 2006, he's been moving along at a pretty nice clip. He makes his living in Hostile Conditions - in a hitter's park in the the DH league - but he dealx with it. He's one win behind Jim Kaat at the same age, and he's ahead of such worthies as Alexander, Jenkins, Ryan, Ruffing, Grimes, Wynn, John, Plank, Spahn, Grove, and Niekro. He's even ahead of Hoss Radbourn. Of course, Radbourn won 48 games in his age 28 season, which Buehrle will be hard pressed to match. Of the active pitchers his age or older, he's ahead of Mulder, Glavine, Mussina, Oswalt, Pettite, Hudson, Santana, Halladay, Colon, Carpenter, Johnson, and Schilling. At first glance, his 2006 season looks pretty alarming - his strikeouts fell to an unacceptable low, and he couldn't keep the ball in the park. On the other hand, all that really happened was he had one awful month. If you take out July, he was 12-8, 4.01 - basically, not all that different from what he always does. He's kind of the new Tom Glavine, just not quite as good.
Jake Peavy (57 through 25, 23rd) - Of the young guns, this is the one I like best. He has many of the same advantages as Bonderman, plus he works in the weaker league. I think he's clearly been a better pitcher than Bonderman or Sabathia, and he's done better at staying in the lineup than Prior or Beckett. For now, he's ahead of Kaat, Ruffing, John, Jenkins, Ryan, Alexander, Wynn, Grimes, Plank, Perry, Grove, Spahn, and Niekro. Also ahead of Keefe and Radbourn from the 19th century list, and Glavine, Mussina, Pettite, Hudson, Oswalt, Santana, Prior, Halladay, Carpenter, Colon, Schilling and Johnson of the active pitchers his age or older.
Pedro Martinez (206 through age 34, 24th) - Pedro was making very nice progress until the doctors finally decided that the time was now for the long-expected shoulder surgery. Never a good thing. He was actually ahead of some pretty impressive pitchers: Lefty Grove, Eddie Plank, Early Wynn, Kaat, Ryan, Spahn, Perry, John, and Niekro. Now... who knows? I suppose that all bets are off, but this is still Pedro Martinez we're talking about. While he may leave that 95 mph heater on the operating table, I think he's already demonstrated that he knows how to pitch and how to win without it. Of the active pitchers his age or older, Pedro is ahead of Mussina, Pettite, Johnson and Schilling.
Mark Mulder (103 through age 28, 26th)
Barry Zito (102 through age 28, 27th)
Roy Oswalt (98 through age 28, 29th)
These three men are more or less in a dead heat, so we'll consider them together. They're more or less the same age - Mulder is three weeks older than Oswalt, and Zito is nine months younger than both. They're within five wins of one another; Mulder has the most wins, barely. Oswalt has the best career K rate, but his advantage over Zito in this regard is entirely a matter of spending his entire career in the NL and pitching to other pitchers rather than designated hitters. Mulder has had injury issues at various times during hs career; Zito has never missed a start since arriving in the majors, and Oswalt has a very fine health record as well. Oswalt is somewhat slightly built, but he is the best of the three pitchers. Not by much, though. Each of the three is ahead of Ruffing, Grimes, Plank, John, Wynn, Grove, Spahn, Perry, and Niekro. Of the active pitchers their age or older, they're ahead of Hudson, Halladay, Colon, Carpenter, Johnson and Schilling. Mulder and Zito are also ahead of Pettite.
Mike Mussina (239 through age 37, 29th) - Mussina slipped behind Warren Spahn's pace this past season, after being ahead of Spahnie's winning pace for his entire career. He's still ahead of Gaylord Perry, Nolan Ryan, Tommy John, and Niekro. He's also well ahead of Randy Johnson, among the active pitchers his age or older. Mussina is not quite as durable as he used to be, but he was still very, very effective in 2006. His strikeout rate is very strong, he never walks anybody, he's still hard to hit. His team scores some runs for him. He could go on like this for another three or four years.
Tim Hudson (119 through age 30, 31st) - The most comparable pitcher to Hudson at age 30, according to baseball-reference.com, is Black Jack McDowell. McDowell was also a skinny right-hander, even skinnier than Hudson, and he also won 13 games in his age 30 season. But McDowell, who had 119 career wins at that point, would only win 8 more games afterwards. Let's hope Hudson can avoid that destiny. He's coming off by far the worst year of his career - but he was able to stay in the rotation and make all of his starts for the first time in three years, and his strikeout rate is still very healthy. He's ahead of Grove, John, Spahn, Perry and Niekro. Of the active pitchers his age or older, he is ahead of Colon, Carpenter, Johnson and Schilling.
Andy Pettite (186 through age 34, 31st) - He just keeps rolling along, doesn't he? After a brilliant comeback year in 2005, Pettite came gliding back to earth. But he still put together a solid season, and also came within 2 Ks of matching his career high in strikeouts. That's a story, too. Pettite has now played 12 seasons in the majors - over the first six, he averaged 6.01 strikeouts per 9 innings (low of 5.50 and a high 6.60) - in the last six seasons, he has averaged 7.35 strikeouts per 9 (low of 6.48 and a high of 8.57). Only some of this can be attributed to his move to the National League three years ago. He's never really had a bad season, and he appears to be fairly healthy. In other words, he could go on like this for several more years. He's ahead of Spahn, Perry, John, and Niekro. Of the active pitchers his age or older, he is ahead of Johnson and Schilling.
Johan Santana (78 through age 27, 34th) - The best pitcher in the world, obviously. He's really in a class by itself at this point. The Twins took their time making him a full-time starter, or otherwise he might have 100 wins by now. It'll likely pay off for someone ten years from now, although it probably won't be the Twins. After just three years as a full-time starter, Santana is ahead of Wynn, John, Plank, Spahn, Grove, and Niekro. Of the active pitchers his age or older, he's ahead of Halladay, Colon, Carpenter, Johnson, and Schilling.
Bartolo Colon (140 through age 33, 34th) - A lost year for the defending Cy Young winner. He's still ahead of John and Niekro, but I have noticed that none of the men who pitched effectively into their 40s weighed almost 300 pounds. Especially if they stood less than six feet tall. I'll be surprised and impressed if he makes it to 200 wins. Of the active pitchers his age or older, he is ahead of Johnson and Schilling.
Curt Schilling (192 through age 38, 35th) - Obviously, Schilling has no chance whatsoever of cracking the top of these lists - like Randy Johnson, his old teammate, he got started rather late and while he does have 14 more wins than Phil Niekro had at his age, I don't think he's going to develop a knuckleball and pitch until he's 48. In fact, he's already said 2007 will be his last season, although people have been known to change their minds. So he's just going to get the 8 wins he needs to clear 200, which should allow him to coast into the Hall of Fame on a) his peak level of performance, which is awfully impressive; b) his post-season resume, which is simply one of the greatest of all time, and certainly the greatest of our age; c) his bloody sock.
Roy Halladay (95 through age 29, 37th) - For some reason, I think Doc is going to end up with career numbers quite a bit like Catfish Hunter's - which means I expect him to win another 130 games. Obviously, their career shapes have nothing in common - it's just me with one of my irrational hunches. While his fastball, even in 2006, still gusts up to 94 mph, and he's certainly built like a power pitcher, Doc may actually have more in common with Greg Maddux than any of the other outstanding pitchers of recent years. He's not that good, of course, but not too many pitchers in the history of the game have been as good as Maddux. Both men are dedicated to the proposition that a hitter has to earn his way on base; both of them believe in getting the at bat, and the inning, over with as quickly and as economically as possible. Doc gives up more hits than Mad Dog did in his prime, although quite a bit of that represents the difference between the two leagues. For the same reason, Maddux's strikeout rates in the mid 1990s were often better than Halladay's, who had to face DHs rather than pitchers. With 95 wins at age 29, he's even with Tommy John, and ahead of Grove, Spahn, Perry, and Niekro. Of the active pitchers his age or older, he is ahead of Colon, Carpenter, Johnson and Schilling.
Chris Carpenter (100 through age 31, 39th) - When he was 28 years old, Carpenter had a career record of 49-50, 4.83 - not to mention that he'd just missed an entire season with shoulder surgery. So really - who knew? The injury experience did prompt Carpenter to change his work habits considerably ("I never did so many shoulder exercises in my life - what else could I do though? I couldn't play."). The results speak for themselves. In his three years in St. Louis he's gone 51-18 and won a Cy Young Award (and may win another in a few weeks.) I really like his chances of winning at least another 100 games, but the fact that he didn't become a good pitcher until he was 29 years old will keep him out of the top part of the all-time lists. For now, the only man he's ahead is the guy who didn't make it into the rotation to stay until he was 28, but kept pitching until he was 48. And threw about as hard as I do. Of the active pitchers his age or older, he is ahead of Johnson and Schilling.
Josh Beckett (57 through age 26, 40th) - There was lots not to like about Beckett's first year in the AL, beginning with that unsightly 5.01 ERA. He gave up a mind-boggling 36 HRs in just over 200 innings - he'd given up just 55 career homers in more than 600 innings in the National League. On the other hand, for the first time in his career, he made 30 starts and pitched 200 innings - the 16 wins was a career high, his strikeout-walk ratios are still very good, and even in the AL he gave up less than a hit an inning. He's obviously had a lot of health issues, but that may end up working to his advantage, keeping his workload under control in the early days of his career. He's even with Grimes, and ahead of Plank, Spahn, Perry, Grove and Niekro (as well as Old Hoss). Of the active pitchers his age or older, he's ahead of Colon, Carpenter, Johnson, and Schilling.
Mark Prior (42 through age 25, 42nd) - Disasters keep happening to Prior, and no one is measuring his HoF plaque anymore. On the other hand, even though it seems like we've been hearing about him forever, he's still just 25 years old. And I still believe that if the Supreme Being were planning to design the Ideal Pitcher, she'd come up with something very much like Mark Prior. And who knows? We may one day regard the endless injuries of the last few years as the thing that saved Prior's career from its ultrimate destruction at the hands of Dusty Baker, Abuser of Pitchers. He's still ahead of Grimes, Plank, Perry, Grove, Johnson, and Niekro (as well as Keefe and Radbourn). Of the active pitchers his age or older, he is still ahead of Beckett, Halladay, Carpenter, Colon, Schilling, and Johnson.
So are any of these active guys going to make it past 270 career wins? Well, why not? Fifteen years ago, there were four active pitchers who would crack the Top 32 (Clemens, Maddux, Glavine, Johnson). Fifteen years before that, there were seven (Carlton, Ryan, Sutton, Niekro, Perry, Seaver, John - plus Jim Palmer, who has since been bumped by today's crop.) So I think I have to single out at least two of today's pitchers, preferably more. So....
Johan Santana
Roy Oswalt
Jake Peavy
Mark Prior
Who else should be part of the discussion? And before you say "Justin Verlander," just on general principle I wouldn't even consider considering someone with less than three years in the majors.
