The Red Sox seem likely to make a major run at Lugo as well. Bidding wars with the Red Sox are generally not good for your bottom line -- though I'm very happy the Jays lost the last such war, for the services of Matt Clement.

The Globe and Mail reports that Daisuke Matsuzaka will indeed be posted this Winter (http://www.globesports.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20061010.wmatsu10/GSStory/GlobeSportsBaseball/home), and that Joe Torre will NOT be fired (http://www.globesports.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20061010.wtorre10/GSStory/GlobeSportsBaseball/home)

$40M for a 31 year old SS coming off a year of career highs, driven largely by a torrid June and July? Whose career line is 277/340/348? Sorry, but that seems like it is the exact type of contract to avoid.

I think Adams can hit as well as Lugo next year if given the opportunity.  Lugo won't be worth what he gets.

Cabrera isn't going anywhere in 2007 as Brandon Wood is simply not ready.  Sure he hit for power but his average was around .250 and he struck out like 140 times in about 110 games at AA.

The Red Sox seem likely to make a major run at Lugo as well. Bidding wars with the Red Sox are generally not good for your bottom line

Indeed. The good news though is that if the Red Sox sign Lugo, it opens up the door to bring in Alex Gonzalez or Mark Loretta (Red Sox seem committed to starting Pedroia next year). If the worst case scenario is that Hill plays short and Loretta takes second, that's not too bad.

I'll also put out another possibility. The Diamondbacks apparantly have a second baseman making it through their system, opening up the possibility of acquiring Hudson through trade at the deadline, or after 2007. Ideally, you'd like to keep Hill at second, but when you have the opportunity to bring in that kind of defence, that's worth considering.

 

Getting Hudson sounds good, but how much would we have to give up for him AND are the Diamondbacks really trying to move him? For one thing, he just had his career best season. He set career highs in virtually every category while playing 157 games, cutting his strikeout rate, adding power, and maintaining (approximately) his walk rate (I'm ranting here because I just looked at his career line and was very impressed (although maybe it's just because the National League is garbage)). Anyway, he's still young and I doubt with Webb in his prime the D'backs are looking to get rid of a 2B with respectable offensive numbers and who turned 119 (if I recall correctly) double plays.

All that said, assuming they were looking to trade him, who would we have to give up? Suggestions?

Lugo is a league average shortstop and Meche is a league average starter. Gonzalez is a below average SS while Zito is an ace on many teams.

If they cost the same, I'd take Zito in a heartbeat and take Gonzalez who is a good fielder and bat him 9

Keep in mind Lugo hit 0 HRs during his stay in LA this year.

I think Lugo would be a good addition up to a certain price (3 years, $24M? Something like that). But 4 years, $32 million (or more) for a league-average SS? Ugh. And aren't the RC numbers something of a small sample size? I think Glaus had poor numbers at the RC before this year, and he absolutely tore it up at home (.944 OPS) in 2006.

for a league-average SS

1.  A league average SS is a big upgrade for the Jays.
2.  Lugo is not a league average SS, he's a league average hitter, regardless of position (OPS+ average of 97 the past 4 years).  That he can play a good defensive SS makes it even better.  He missed the first month of season and in his AL only time he was 11th among all SS in VORP (not sure why his NL numbers aren't in the BP stats).
3.  His WARP the last 4 years are 5.9, 6.8, 9.9, and 4.6.  I believe the common translation is $2 million/WARP.

Having Lugo as the SS represents a big huge upgrade for the Jays - it'd be at least 5 wins - and would allow Aaron Hill to play 2B which everyone seems to think is a better position for him.

The annual dollars don't make me flinch - the only issue for me will be the number of years.

Lugo will be 31 next month.  He was a very good defensive shortstop, and is very slowly slipping.  He was an established adequate hitter prior to 2005, and then took it to the next level for a season and a half.  Asked to play second base in LA, he struggled with the bat, although he played the position well. There are certainly reasonable differing points of view on what offensive production can be expected of him.

I am not sure that he will be 5 wins annually better than Adams/McDonald over 2007-08, but I do think that he will be at least 3 wins better.  I also think that a Glaus/Lugo/Hill/Overbay infield would inspire confidence in the pitching staff.  I see that as more important than acquiring a veteran starter to bolster the staff.

Vernon Well Interview

Q and A from SI.com:

SI: You have one season left on your contract. Does your gut tell you two years from now you'll be a Blue Jay?

Wells: My gut right now does. It's been my life so far. Since 1997 I have been a Blue Jay. It would be a huge change if I were to go somewhere else.

SI: Will you give the Jays a hometown discount?

Wells: I wouldn't necessarily say a "hometown discount" It's a matter of it has to be fair. Being one year away from free agency, you have to make a choice of whether you want to test the market or stay where you are. I think in order for me not to want to even think about testing the market, it's going to have to be a deal near market value.

SI: Do you want to see a quick resolution?

Wells: It doesn't necessarily have to be quick. I think we'll probably come to some resolution. I am a patient person and I'm willing to wait as long as it takes to get something done and hopefully it does. We have something special brewing here and I want to be a part of it.

I also enjoyed the part where he said that after doing his TV work Hinske called him up to tell him that his nose was even bigger on TV.

My least favorite part:

SI: Have you gotten into any Canadian sporting pursuits?

Wells: Unfortunately, no matter what we do, if there is a junior hockey team or if there is hockey being played in the country, it'll be the lead on the news channel. I don't get into hockey but I have been to a Leafs game two or three times.

Rickster, Lugo's career line is .277/.340/.402, which is probably pretty close to league average for a SS. This year his EqA, according to Baseball Prospectus was .270, while the major league average for SS was .253. Johnny Mac's EqA was .214: blech!! His EqA with Tampa Bay before the trade was .302 and after it was .199. I'm not saying Lugo is Tejada-like, but Tejada's EqA was also .302. Also, regarding his awful two months in the National League, for some reason he does not play well in that league. If you look at his career numbers, he has consistently been a below average hitter in the National League and an above average hitter in the American League. I don't know why, but some guys are like that. I sure would love to see him in a Jays uniform at 3/$24 mil or 4/$32 mil. If you're going to keep pace with the Yankees and Red Sox of the world, you have to score runs. I would also like to see Padilla for similar money, but that might be asking too much. Maybe J.P. can swing a trade for the pitching that is needed. Detroit and Anaheim appear to be bursting with SP and needing offense. Zaun and Cat would be nice to have back as well.

Unfortunately, no matter what we do, if there is a junior hockey team or if there is hockey being played in the country, it'll be the lead on the news channel. I don't get into hockey but I have been to a Leafs game two or three times.

No offense Vernon, but the Memorial Cup which is held once per year should probably carry a little more recognition than game #73 of the Blue Jays Schedule.

I'm sure Grady Sizemore isn't upset when the Cleveland Post Standard puts Ohio State on the front page of the Sports Section, ahead of game #97 of the Indians schedule.